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<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/"><channel><title>MuffinPay Insights</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/</link><description>Research on stablecoins, USDC and USDT payments, CBDCs, NRI and cross-border bill payments and money transfer across the UAE, India, UK, USA and Canada.</description><language>en</language><lastBuildDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><image><url>https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/icon-512.png</url><title>MuffinPay Insights</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/</link></image><item><title>Fintech Startups to Watch 2026: 14 Companies by the Numbers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Fintech startups to watch in 2026 across the US, Europe, India, the Gulf, Africa and Mexico, with dated valuations, revenue and funding rounds for each.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 9 October 2026, Bloomberg reported that Ramp, the corporate card and spend software company, was raising about $1.85 billion at roughly $60 billion. Four months earlier the number had been $44 billion. Eleven months earlier, $32 billion. In the same quarter, CB Insights counted only 726 fintech funding deals worldwide, the fewest in more than four years. Those two facts describe 2026 better than any trend report: money is plentiful for a few dozen companies that can show revenue, licences and growth at once, and scarce for almost everyone else. This list is about the first group, and about the smaller firms most likely to join it.</p>

<h2>How we chose these fintech startups</h2>
<p>We selected 14 private or recently listed fintech companies using measurable criteria as of October 2026: a dated funding round or valuation from 2025 or 2026, reported revenue or volume where available, regulatory licences, and product breadth across payments, stablecoin infrastructure, business banking and consumer finance. We grouped them by category rather than ranking them, and we mixed geographies deliberately: the US, Europe, India, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Mexico and Asia-Pacific.</p>
<p>We excluded companies where we could not verify a 2025 or 2026 number, and left out prediction markets and pure AI software firms. Every figure below is as reported by the linked source. For what investors test before writing these cheques, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-investors-evaluate-fintech-startups/">how investors evaluate fintech startups</a>.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$159B</b><span>Stripe valuation, Feb 2026 tender offer</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.9T</b><span>volume processed on Stripe in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>726</b><span>global fintech deals in Q2 2026 (CB Insights)</span></div></div>

<h2>Which payments infrastructure companies matter most in 2026?</h2>
<p>In 2026 the payments infrastructure companies attracting the largest valuations are those that process trillions of dollars for other businesses and are adding stablecoin rails on top. Stripe remains the reference point for the whole sector, while Airwallex and Column show that cross-border accounts and bank-as-infrastructure models can grow quickly when paired with licences.</p>
<h3>Stripe</h3>
<p>Stripe is no longer a startup by any normal definition, but it sets the price of everything else in payments. Its February 2026 annual letter said businesses on Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in 2025, up 34%, and a tender offer for employee shares valued the company at $159 billion, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/391075/stripe-valuation-jumps-to-159-billion-on-back-of-tender-offer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. The more interesting part for this list is its stablecoin unit: Bridge, bought for $1.1 billion in late 2024, received conditional OCC approval in February 2026 to become a federally chartered national bank.</p>
<h3>Airwallex</h3>
<p>Airwallex, founded in Australia, sells multi-currency business accounts, cards and payouts. It raised a $330 million Series G at $8 billion in December 2025, then closed a $320 million Series H led by Addition at an $11 billion valuation in June 2026, according to <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/airwallex-reaches-11bn-valuation-with-320m-series-h-funding-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. Annualised revenue was $1.3 billion as of March 2026, up 74% on a year earlier, and the company holds more than 85 licences, with the new money earmarked for more.</p>
<h3>Column</h3>
<p>Column is an FDIC-insured bank built to serve fintechs and developers, led by Plaid co-founder William Hockey. Forbes reported in February 2026 that it more than doubled revenue in 2025 to over $200 million. Sponsor-bank risk is one of the main constraints on US fintech growth, and a bank built for API customers answers it directly.</p>

<h2>Which stablecoin infrastructure startups should you watch?</h2>
<p>The stablecoin infrastructure startups to watch in 2026 are the ones that let ordinary businesses move, hold and spend dollar stablecoins without running crypto operations themselves. Rain issues stablecoin-linked cards, BVNK runs enterprise stablecoin accounts and is being acquired by Mastercard, and Stripe's Bridge is pursuing a US bank charter. Valuations here rose faster than anywhere else in fintech.</p>
<p>The backdrop is a stablecoin supply of about $306 billion as of October 2026, according to DefiLlama, with genuine stablecoin payments estimated at around $390 billion in 2025 by McKinsey and Artemis. Our wider list of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/">stablecoin companies to watch</a> goes deeper on issuers.</p>
<h3>Rain</h3>
<p>Rain lets companies launch Visa-linked cards that spend from stablecoin balances. It raised a $250 million Series C led by ICONIQ at a $1.95 billion valuation on 9 January 2026, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/384910/rain-valuation-nears-2-billion-usd-series-c-250-million-raise" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. It reported over $3 billion in annualised transactions, more than 200 partners including Western Union, and card issuance in over 150 countries. Forbes noted its valuation tripled in five months.</p>
<h3>BVNK</h3>
<p>BVNK, based in London, provides tools for businesses to send, receive, store and convert stablecoins and fiat across more than 130 countries. On 17 March 2026 Mastercard agreed to acquire it for up to $1.8 billion, including $300 million in contingent payments, with closing expected by the end of 2026, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/393898/mastercard-to-acquire-stablecoin-infrastructure-firm-bvnk-for-up-to-1-8-billion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by The Block</a>. It is on this list because the deal is the clearest price signal yet for stablecoin payments infrastructure.</p>

<h2>Which business finance and embedded finance startups are growing fastest?</h2>
<p>Business finance is the fastest-repricing corner of fintech in 2026. Ramp's valuation rose from $32 billion to about $60 billion in under a year, and Mercury reported $650 million of 2025 revenue with a third straight profitable year. Both sell software-led accounts and cards to companies, and both earn largely from interchange and deposits.</p>
<h3>Ramp</h3>
<p>Ramp sells corporate cards, bill pay and spend management to US companies. Its June 2026 announcement said annualised revenue had passed $1 billion, the company was free-cash-flow positive and it served more than 70,000 customers; the October 2026 round, co-led by Dragoneer and Thrive Capital, valued it at about $60 billion before the new money, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/ramp-reportedly-hits-60bn-valuation-in-1.85bn-funding-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures, citing Bloomberg</a>. Bloomberg separately reported that annualised revenue had passed $1.5 billion by June; Ramp has not confirmed the October round.</p>
<h3>Mercury</h3>
<p>Mercury offers business checking and working capital loans, mainly to startups. Forbes reported 2025 revenue of $650 million and a third consecutive profitable year, and CB Insights listed a $200 million Series D among the largest digital banking rounds of the second quarter of 2026.</p>

<h2>Which consumer fintech and digital banks are worth watching?</h2>
<p>The consumer fintechs worth watching in 2026 combine a licence, a large customer base and profits. Revolut is now valued at $75 billion; Plata in Mexico doubled its valuation within seven months; and Moniepoint in Nigeria processes more than $22 billion a month. Each is moving from one product into a full bank.</p>
<h3>Revolut</h3>
<p>Revolut, headquartered in London, was valued at $75 billion in a November 2025 share sale led by Coatue, Greenoaks, Dragoneer and Fidelity, up from $48 billion in August 2025, according to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/24/revolut-hits-75b-valuation-in-new-capital-raise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechCrunch</a>. Its 2024 revenue rose 72% to $4 billion with $1 billion of net profit, and it has said it wants 100 million customers by mid-2027.</p>
<h3>Plata</h3>
<p>Plata is a Mexican digital lender that began with credit cards. It raised a $250 million Series B at $3.1 billion on 21 October 2025, more than double its $1.5 billion valuation in March 2025, and holds approval for a full banking licence from Mexico's CNBV granted in December 2024, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/mexican-fintech-plata-raises-250m-series-b-doubles-valuation-to-3-1bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>.</p>
<h3>Moniepoint</h3>
<p>Moniepoint started with point-of-sale terminals for Nigerian merchants and now runs accounts, loans and payments. In October 2025 it completed a $200 million round with Visa, Development Partners International, Leapfrog and Google's Africa Investment Fund, at a valuation above $1 billion, and reported more than one billion transactions and over $22 billion of payment volume a month, according to <a href="https://launchbaseafrica.com/2025/10/21/moniepoint-closes-200m-round-to-push-merchant-banking-beyond-nigeria/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Launch Base Africa</a>. Acquisitions in the UK and Kenya point to its next markets; our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-fintech-companies-2026/">Africa fintech list</a> has the regional context.</p>

<h2>Which fintech startups in India and the Gulf should you watch?</h2>
<p>India and Saudi Arabia produced several of 2026's largest fintech financings. CRED raised about $900 million led by Meta in June 2026; Groww and Pine Labs listed in November 2025; and Tabby, the Gulf's largest buy-now-pay-later company, reached a $6.5 billion valuation in September 2026. Each shows a different route from startup to scale.</p>
<h3>CRED</h3>
<p>CRED, the Indian fintech, began as a credit card bill payment app and now offers lending, payments and wealth products. On 22 June 2026 it announced a Series H of about Rs 8,550 crore (roughly $900 million) led by Meta as a minority investor, at a post-money valuation of about $4.5 billion, with around 1.7 crore members using its products monthly, per <a href="https://thedailyguardian.com/business/cred-to-raise-rs-8550-crore-in-funding-round-led-by-meta20260622202952-719640" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Daily Guardian</a>.</p>
<h3>Groww and Pine Labs</h3>
<p>Both listed in India in November 2025, so neither is a startup any longer, but they set public-market benchmarks for every Indian fintech raising today. Groww's IPO raised about $748 million, the largest Indian fintech listing of 2025, at a valuation near $9 billion, and its shares closed 29% above issue on debut; it reported over 14 million active users. Pine Labs, the merchant payments and point-of-sale company, raised $440 million and closed its first day 14% higher, according to <a href="https://www.thisweekinfintech.com/two-massive-indian-fintech-ipos-twif-11-16/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This Week in Fintech</a>. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-fintech-companies-2026/">India fintech companies guide</a> covers the wider field.</p>
<h3>Tabby</h3>
<p>Tabby, headquartered in Saudi Arabia, offers instalment payments, cards and a shopping app across the Gulf. It raised $233 million at a $6.5 billion valuation in September 2026, led by Blue Pool Capital, according to <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/tabby-raises-233m-at-6-5bn-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. The company reports more than 25 million registered users, between 65,000 and 70,000 merchant partners depending on the report, and more than $18 billion in annualised transaction volume. In February 2025 its Series E had valued it at $3.3 billion. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-fintech-companies-2026/">UAE fintech companies</a> piece for the neighbouring market.</p>

<h2>How do these fintech companies compare?</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Stripe</td><td>US / Ireland</td><td>Online payments, stablecoins via Bridge</td><td>$159B valuation, Feb 2026; $1.9T volume in 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Revolut</td><td>UK</td><td>Global consumer finance app and bank</td><td>$75B valuation, Nov 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ramp</td><td>US</td><td>Corporate cards and spend software</td><td>~$60B valuation, Oct 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Airwallex</td><td>Australia (founded)</td><td>Multi-currency business accounts</td><td>$11B valuation, Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Groww</td><td>India</td><td>Investing and broking app</td><td>~$9B at IPO, Nov 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tabby</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>Instalments, cards, shopping app</td><td>$6.5B valuation, Sep 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>CRED</td><td>India</td><td>Card bill payments, credit, rewards</td><td>~$4.5B post-money, Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Plata</td><td>Mexico</td><td>Credit cards, becoming a full bank</td><td>$3.1B valuation, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rain</td><td>Global (150+ countries)</td><td>Stablecoin-linked card issuing</td><td>$1.95B valuation, Jan 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>BVNK</td><td>UK</td><td>Enterprise stablecoin accounts</td><td>Mastercard deal up to $1.8B, Mar 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Moniepoint</td><td>Nigeria</td><td>Merchant and personal banking</td><td>$22B+ monthly payment volume, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mercury</td><td>US</td><td>Business banking for startups</td><td>$650M revenue in 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Column</td><td>US</td><td>Bank for fintechs and developers</td><td>$200M+ revenue in 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Pine Labs</td><td>India</td><td>Merchant payments and POS</td><td>$440M IPO, Nov 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: what are investors paying for each dollar of volume?</h2>
<p>Valuation headlines are hard to compare, so it helps to divide them by something the company actually moves. Using only the figures above:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Stripe:</b> $159 billion divided by $1.9 trillion of 2025 volume is about 8.4 cents of valuation per dollar processed in a year.</li>
<li><b>Tabby:</b> $6.5 billion divided by $18 billion of annualised volume is about 36 cents per dollar. Instalment lenders earn far more per transaction than processors, and carry credit risk to match.</li>
<li><b>Rain:</b> $1.95 billion divided by $3 billion of annualised card volume is about 65 cents per dollar, a premium for 38x volume growth in a year.</li>
<li><b>Ramp:</b> about $60 billion against $1 billion of annualised revenue is roughly 60 times revenue; on the $1.5 billion run-rate Bloomberg reported, it is about 40 times.</li>
</ol>
<p>None of these ratios says a company is cheap or expensive. They do show what investors are betting on: for Stripe, scale; for Tabby, margin per transaction; for Rain and Ramp, growth that has not yet slowed.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">In 2026 the market pays for licences plus revenue plus growth; any two of the three gets a much smaller cheque.</blockquote>

<h2>What should you watch next in fintech?</h2>
<p>The next six to nine months will test whether 2026's private valuations hold. These are the dated events that will tell us:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Mastercard and BVNK, by end-2026.</b> Closing is expected by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval. A completed deal would set the template for card networks buying stablecoin infrastructure, a theme in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026/">stablecoin startup funding</a> tracker.</li>
<li><b>Bridge's national bank charter.</b> The OCC's February 2026 approval was conditional. Final approval would give Stripe a federally chartered issuer and custodian.</li>
<li><b>Tabby's listing decision.</b> Its chief executive said in September 2026 that the profitable company does not need to force the timing of an IPO and will pick whichever market makes most sense; no date has been set.</li>
<li><b>Airwallex's licence expansion.</b> The June 2026 Series H was earmarked for licences in new markets, on top of the more than 85 it already holds.</li>
<li><b>Revolut's customer target.</b> It aims for 100 million customers by mid-2027.</li>
<li><b>CB Insights Q3 2026 data.</b> Due later this autumn, it will show whether the second quarter's four-year low in deal count was a trough or a trend.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may since have changed.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Biggest Remittance Companies 2026: Ranked by Revenue</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/biggest-remittance-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/biggest-remittance-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The largest remittance and money transfer companies in 2026 by revenue, send volume and customers, from Western Union and Wise to Gulf exchange houses.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/biggest-remittance-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At about nine on a Friday night, the queue outside an exchange house in Dubai's Al Karama runs past the pharmacy next door. Most people in it already have a money transfer app on their phone. They are queuing anyway, some for cash, some for a rate they trust, some because the cashier knows their name. That scene is a useful corrective to the idea that the remittance business has already gone digital. The biggest companies in 2026 are a mix of 170-year-old agent networks, listed apps growing at 30% a year, and Gulf exchange houses with hundreds of branches. Size depends on which yardstick you pick.</p>

<h2>How we chose and ranked these companies</h2>
<p>We ranked companies by measurable scale as of October 2026: revenue from money transfer in the latest reported full year, send volume, and active customers, using annual reports, quarterly filings and company releases. Where a company is private, we use the figures it has disclosed and say so. We do not rank on price or service quality, and nothing here is a recommendation.</p>
<p>One caution before the numbers. These businesses do not report the same things. Western Union and Euronet count transactions. Wise reports cross-border volume and a financial year that ends in March. Remitly reports send volume. Gulf exchange houses report operating income in dirhams. We have kept each figure in the form the company gives it, with the period attached, rather than forcing them into a single column that would hide the differences.</p>
<p>For context, the World Bank's <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Remittance Prices Worldwide</a> database put the global average cost of sending $200 at 6.36% in Q3 2025. Every company below is competing for a share of that margin, and the fastest-growing ones are the ones pushing it down.</p>

<h2>Who are the largest remittance companies in 2026?</h2>
<p>By 2025 money transfer revenue, the largest remittance company in the world is still Western Union, at about $4.1 billion of total revenue. Wise is second on net revenue for its year to March 2026, followed by Euronet's Ria segment and Remitly. By send volume the order changes: Wise moved $243.5 billion across borders in its latest year, more than three times Remitly's $74.9 billion.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Western Union</td><td>USA</td><td>Agent network plus app, 200+ countries</td><td>$4.05B revenue, 285.9M consumer transfers (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wise</td><td>UK</td><td>Low-margin app and Wise Platform for banks</td><td>$243.5B cross-border volume (FY to Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ria (Euronet)</td><td>USA</td><td>Agent and digital transfers, 200 countries</td><td>$1.78B revenue, 183.4M transactions (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Remitly</td><td>USA</td><td>Digital-only money transfer app</td><td>$74.9B send volume, $1.64B revenue (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>MoneyGram</td><td>USA</td><td>Private; retail network and app</td><td>50M+ customers, about 500,000 locations (2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Intermex</td><td>USA</td><td>US to Latin America, retail-led</td><td>$24.4B principal sent (2024)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Zepz</td><td>UK</td><td>WorldRemit and Sendwave apps</td><td>9M+ customers, $14.7B volume (2024)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lulu Exchange</td><td>UAE</td><td>Gulf exchange house</td><td>$19.7B remitted (2024)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Al Ansari</td><td>UAE</td><td>Listed exchange house</td><td>AED1.29B operating income, 444 branches (2025)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Which companies lead on revenue?</h2>
<p>The revenue leaders in 2025 were Western Union, Wise, Euronet's money transfer arm and Remitly. Western Union's revenue is shrinking slightly while the digital players grow quickly, so the gap is closing. Remitly grew revenue 29% in 2025; Western Union's consumer money transfer revenue fell 8%.</p>

<h3>Western Union</h3>
<p>Western Union reported 2025 revenue of $4.05 billion, down 4%, with consumer money transfer revenue of $3.51 billion across 285.9 million transactions, according to its <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260220258915/en/Western-Union-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full-year results</a>. Its branded digital business made up 30% of consumer transfer revenue and 39% of transactions in the fourth quarter. It operates in more than 200 countries and territories. On 4 May 2026 it launched its own dollar stablecoin, USDPT, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank on Solana and used first for settlement with agents in the Philippines and Bolivia, <a href="https://theblock.co/post/399890/western-union-launches-usdpt-stablecoin-anchorage-solana" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. A consumer feature, Stable by Western Union, is due in more than 40 countries during 2026.</p>

<h3>Wise</h3>
<p>Wise is the largest by volume. In its year to 31 March 2026 it moved $243.5 billion across borders, up 31%, for 18.9 million active customers, on net revenue of $2.50 billion and pre-tax income of $660.4 million, per its <a href="https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/wise-class-a--wise/wise-fy26-results/9637901" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY26 results</a>. Its cross-border take rate fell to 0.52%. Wise is now listed on both Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange, and sells its infrastructure to banks through Wise Platform.</p>

<h3>Ria Money Transfer (Euronet)</h3>
<p>Euronet's money transfer segment, built around Ria, earned $1.78 billion of revenue in 2025, up 6%, on 183.4 million transactions, according to <a href="https://euronetworldwide.gcs-web.com/node/22431" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Euronet's results</a>. Its network reached about 639,000 locations at the end of 2025. Direct-to-consumer digital transactions in internationally originated transfers grew 31%, a sign that even agent-heavy players are moving customers to apps.</p>

<h3>Remitly</h3>
<p>Remitly is the fastest-growing of the large listed players. Revenue rose 29% to $1.64 billion in 2025, send volume rose 37% to $74.9 billion, and it reported net income of $67.9 million after a loss the year before, per its <a href="https://remitly.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/remitly-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results-above" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fourth-quarter release</a>. It had 9.3 million active customers in Q4 2025 and guided to revenue of $1.94 billion to $1.96 billion for 2026.</p>

<h2>Who are the big private and retail-network players?</h2>
<p>MoneyGram, Intermex and Zepz are the largest remitters outside the Western Union, Wise and Remitly trio. MoneyGram is privately held and discloses little. Intermex is being bought by Western Union, a deal held up in California as of October 2026. Zepz has cut costs hard and is growing again.</p>

<h3>MoneyGram</h3>
<p>MoneyGram says it serves more than 50 million customers across 200-plus countries and territories through nearly 500,000 retail locations, according to a <a href="https://stellar.org/press/moneygram-and-stellar-extend-partnership-to-scale-real-world-stablecoin-utility-globally" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 announcement with the Stellar Development Foundation</a>. It has launched a dollar stablecoin balance in its app, built with Circle's USDC on Stellar, first in Colombia and then in El Salvador. Customers can cash out at its agents, which is the part crypto-native apps cannot easily copy.</p>

<h3>Intermex</h3>
<p>Intermex is a US-to-Latin America specialist that reported 2024 revenue of $658.6 million and $24.4 billion of principal sent. Western Union agreed in August 2025 to buy it for $16 a share in cash, about $500 million. New York approved the deal, but on 13 August 2026 California's regulator suspended its approval extension pending further review, according to the companies' <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001365135/000119312526350419/d126356dex991.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joint update</a>. As of mid-October 2026 we found no announcement that the deal had closed. Intermex's first-half 2026 revenue fell 17% to $253 million.</p>

<h3>Zepz (WorldRemit and Sendwave)</h3>
<p>Zepz has more than 9 million customers, about 8 million transactions a month, 50 sending markets and 130 receiving countries, according to an <a href="https://www.fxcintel.com/research/reports/ct-zepz-interview-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXC Intelligence interview in January 2026</a>. Revenue fell to $420.1 million in 2024 on $14.7 billion of volume, but the company says it ended 2025 growing about 25%, after cutting annual operating costs nearly in half since 2022. Sendwave launched a USDC-based dollar wallet in October 2025.</p>

<h2>Which remittance companies are biggest in the UAE and the Gulf?</h2>
<p>In the UAE, the largest remittance companies are exchange houses rather than apps. Lulu Exchange remitted $19.7 billion in 2024 and claims more than 14% of Gulf remittance volume. Al Ansari, listed in Dubai, earned AED1.29 billion of operating income in 2025 from 444 branches. Both now push digital channels, but branches still carry most of the money.</p>

<h3>Lulu Exchange</h3>
<p>Lulu Exchange, part of Lulu Financial Holdings, handled about $19.7 billion of remittances in 2024 and projected about $22 billion for 2025, roughly 2% of global flows, a senior Lulu executive told <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/12/12/2025/lulu-currency-exchange-quickly-becomes-top-player" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Semafor</a> in December 2025. These are company-stated figures; Lulu Financial Holdings is private and does not publish audited volumes. It says it has more than 14% of Gulf remittance volume and is aiming for a double-digit global share by 2030, an ambitious target for an operator of its size.</p>

<h3>Al Ansari Exchange</h3>
<p>Al Ansari Financial Services reported 2025 operating income of AED1.29 billion, up 12%, and net profit of AED401 million, with 444 branches after buying Bahrain's BFC Group, per <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/business/banking-and-insurance/al-ansari-financial-services-delivers-1092mln-in-2025-net-profits-yfk3c3y3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zawya</a>. In the first half of 2025 it processed 28 million transactions, and digital channels carried 23% of outward remittances.</p>

<p>The Gulf matters because of where the money goes. India received $135.46 billion of remittances in 2024-25, the most of any country. RBI's survey for 2023-24 found the US supplied 27.7% of that and the UAE 19.2%, with the UK at 10.8%, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/advanced-economies-overtake-gulf-nations-in-share-of-remittances-to-india-125032100650_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. The UAE-to-India corridor is covered in detail in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India money transfer guide</a>, and the wider corridor in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia remittances</a>.</p>

<h2>Where do Revolut, PayPal Xoom and the newer apps fit?</h2>
<p>Revolut and PayPal are large in money movement but are not remittance companies first. Revolut reported $6.0 billion of revenue in 2025 across all its banking products. PayPal's Xoom serves about 160 countries but PayPal does not break out its figures. Newer diaspora apps such as Félix and Taptap Send are smaller but growing on narrow corridors.</p>

<h3>Revolut</h3>
<p>Revolut reported 2025 revenue of $6.0 billion, pre-tax profit of $2.3 billion and 68.3 million retail customers, with total transaction volume of $1.7 trillion, per its <a href="https://www.revolut.com/en-AT/news/revolut_reports_record_profit_of_2_3bn_for_2025_as_revenue_surges_to_6bn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">annual results</a>. It does not report a cross-border transfer figure, so it cannot be ranked on remittance volume. It is a bank in more than 30 of its 40 markets.</p>

<h3>PayPal Xoom</h3>
<p>Xoom sends money to about 160 countries and in April 2024 let US users fund transfers with PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin, according to <a href="https://ibsintelligence.com/ibsi-news/paypals-xoom-adds-pyusd-as-funding-option-for-cross-border-money-transfers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IBS Intelligence</a>. Its scale is hidden inside PayPal's consolidated results.</p>

<h3>Félix and other diaspora apps</h3>
<p>Félix, which serves US-to-Latin America senders in 11 markets including Mexico and Colombia, raised $200 million in September 2026 in equity and debt, led by Andreessen Horowitz, and says it has more than 6 million users and $8 billion processed since launch, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/felix-bags-200m-in-mix-of-equity-and-debt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. Taptap Send, which focuses on underserved corridors into Africa and Asia, raised a $65 million Series B led by Spark Capital in December 2021, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/?p=2249786" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechCrunch reported</a>; it has not disclosed a newer round that we could find. Both are ones to watch because they show how a single-corridor focus can still produce scale.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what each company earns on a transfer</h2>
<p>Dividing revenue by transactions or volume gives a rough sense of what each business earns. These are averages across all transfer sizes and corridors, not prices any customer will be quoted.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Western Union:</b> $3,507.4 million of consumer transfer revenue over 285.9 million transactions is about <b>$12.27 per transfer</b>.</li>
<li><b>Ria:</b> $1,782.4 million over 183.4 million transactions is about <b>$9.72 per transfer</b>.</li>
<li><b>Remitly:</b> $1,635 million on $74.9 billion of send volume is about <b>2.2% of the amount sent</b>.</li>
<li><b>Wise:</b> its reported cross-border take rate is <b>0.52%</b>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Now apply those to a $200 transfer. The World Bank's 6.36% average implies about $12.72 of cost. Western Union's average revenue per transfer, $12.27, sits close to that, although its average transfer is larger than $200. Remitly's 2.2% would be about $4.40. Wise's 0.52% would be about $1.04, but Wise's average transfer is much larger than $200, so a small transfer can cost more than the percentage suggests. The point is not which is cheapest on a given day. It is that the business models differ by an order of magnitude, and that difference is why digital players keep taking share.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The biggest remittance company by revenue and the biggest by volume are not the same firm, and the gap between them explains the market.</blockquote>
<p>For how fees and exchange-rate margins combine in practice, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home in 2026</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rates and zero-fee transfers</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<p>The order of this list could change within a year. Four things will decide it.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>The Intermex deal:</b> Western Union and Intermex said in August 2026 they would close promptly once California reinstates approval. Until then, Western Union's 2026 guidance of 5% to 8% revenue growth leans heavily on the acquisition.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin cash-out:</b> MoneyGram's stablecoin wallet is expanding across Central and South America during 2026, and Western Union, which launched USDPT in May 2026, plans to roll out its Stable consumer feature in more than 40 countries this year. Both bet that agent networks become the cash ramp for digital dollars. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">stablecoin payments trends</a> piece tracks the wider shift.</li>
<li><b>Remitly's 2026 target:</b> revenue of $1.94 billion to $1.96 billion would put it within reach of Euronet's money transfer segment on revenue by its full-year 2026 results, due early in 2027.</li>
<li><b>Gulf digital share:</b> Al Ansari's digital channels carried 23% of outward remittances in early 2025. Whether that passes a third by 2027 will show how fast Gulf exchange houses can defend their base against apps.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and periods differ between companies.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/biggest-remittance-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How NRIs Pay Bills in India in 2026: Electricity, Rent, School Fees, Tax</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>A 2026 guide for NRIs paying bills in India from the US, UK, UAE or Canada: Bharat Connect, UPI with an international number, NRE vs NRO rules, costs, risks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bill-payments-for-nri.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">It is nine on a Saturday night in Seattle and already Sunday morning in Coimbatore, which is when a software architect logs into his father's electricity account and finds the bill went overdue on Thursday. He sends money to his father's savings account, phones to explain which counter to visit, and hopes the payment reaches the utility before the disconnection notice does. Millions of non-resident Indians run some version of this ritual every month. In 2026 there are better ways to do it, and the right one depends on where you live, which Indian accounts you hold and how much control you want to keep.</p>

<h2>What NRIs actually pay for back home</h2>
<p>India received a record $135.46 billion in private transfers in 2024-25, according to <a href="https://www.newsonair.gov.in/remittances-by-indians-working-abroad-scale-record-high-of-135-billion-in-fy25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI data reported by All India Radio</a>. A large share of that is not savings or investment. It is recurring household spending: electricity and piped gas for parents, a rented flat for a sibling, school or college fees for a niece, health and life insurance premiums, municipal property tax on the family home, and the postpaid mobile or broadband plan that someone in India uses but you fund.</p>
<p>These bills share three traits. They are small relative to the cost of an international transfer, they recur on fixed dates, and missing them has consequences, from late fees to a lapsed insurance policy. That profile is exactly why sending cash and asking someone else to pay is so inefficient, a point we make at length in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/">why bills are the real remittance</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>22,400+</b><span>billers and merchants on Bharat Connect</span></div><div class="stat"><b>10</b><span>country codes allowed for NRI UPI</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$135.46B</b><span>India's inward private transfers, FY25</span></div></div>

<h2>Option one: pay the biller directly through Bharat Connect</h2>
<p>Bharat Connect, the rebranded Bharat Bill Payment System run by NPCI Bharat BillPay (NBBL), lists more than 22,400 billers and merchants. Its <a href="https://www.bharat-connect.com/categories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">category list</a> runs to about 30 entries, including electricity, water, piped gas, LPG, municipal taxes, housing society maintenance, rent, insurance, education fees, loan repayments and mobile postpaid. For an NRI, that covers almost the entire household budget.</p>
<p>The cross-border piece arrived in stages. In August 2022 the RBI said the system could accept inbound bill payments from abroad, with the elderly parents of overseas Indians explicitly in mind. Early corridors ran through Gulf exchange houses in the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. In August 2024 an <a href="https://bharat-connect.com/pdfs/circulars/2024/004-Expansion-of-Scope-for-Cross-Border-Transactions-on-BBPS.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBBL circular</a> widened the scope to personal non-trade bills of a current-account nature, subject to FEMA and KYC rules. In February 2025 a Canadian fintech, working with Bharat Connect and an Indian sponsor bank, began letting users pay more than 21,000 Indian billers in Canadian dollars.</p>
<p>The practical upside is that you enter the consumer number once, the network fetches the amount due, and the biller is credited directly. Nobody has to queue or remember a password. The catch is coverage: it only works if a provider in your country of residence has connected to the network, so check before assuming. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect explainer</a> covers the plumbing.</p>

<h2>Option two: UPI with an international mobile number</h2>
<p>Since January 2023, NPCI has allowed NRE and NRO account holders to use UPI with mobile numbers from ten countries: the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the UAE, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Once your Indian bank enables it, you can pay most Indian billers from a UPI app as a resident would, including through the bill payment section many apps carry.</p>
<p>This route has no currency conversion at the moment of payment, because the money is already rupees sitting in your NRE or NRO account. The conversion cost was paid earlier, when you funded the account. For many NRIs that is the cleanest setup: move money in larger chunks when the rate and fees suit you, then pay bills in rupees on the due date.</p>

<h2>Option three: let family pay, within limits</h2>
<p>Some households prefer a parent to keep paying locally. NPCI's <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/PDF/npci/press-releases/2024/NPCI-Press-Release-RBI-Governor-Launches-Key-Digital-Payment-Initiatives-at-Global-Fintech-Festival-2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UPI Circle</a>, launched in August 2024, lets a primary user delegate payments to up to five trusted people. Under full delegation, a secondary user can spend up to Rs 15,000 a month and Rs 5,000 per transaction; under partial delegation, they raise a request that the primary user approves with a PIN. Confirm that your bank and app support delegation from an NRI account, but the model suits the common case of a parent paying for the gas cylinder and groceries while you keep the account.</p>
<p>The old fallback, a monthly transfer into a parent's savings account, still works. It just brings back the delay and leakage that direct payment removes.</p>

<h2>NRE or NRO: which account should fund your bills</h2>
<p>Under FEMA the two accounts behave very differently. Money in an NRE account must come from income earned abroad; principal and interest are fully repatriable, and the interest is tax-free in India. An NRO account holds Indian income such as rent, dividends or pension. Its interest attracts 30% TDS plus surcharge and cess unless a tax treaty lowers the rate, and repatriation is capped at $1 million per financial year, as <a href="https://www.dbs.bank.in/in/treasures/articles/nri-hub/live-enriched/what-is-nro-account" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DBS Bank India summarises</a>.</p>
<p>For bills, the logic is straightforward. If rent from an Indian flat lands in an NRO account, paying that flat's property tax, society maintenance and insurance from the same account keeps Indian money in India and avoids a round trip through foreign currency. If you are funding bills from a foreign salary, the NRE account is the natural source.</p>

<h2>What it really costs</h2>
<p>Fees on the bill itself are usually small. The real cost sits in turning dollars, pounds or dirhams into rupees. The World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide survey for the third quarter of 2025 put the average cost of sending about $200 to India at 1.91% from the UK, 2.92% from the US, 3.72% from the UAE and 4.28% from Canada. The best options in each corridor cost well under 1%, while some bank branch transfers cost more than 20%. Always compare what you receive with the mid-market rate rather than trusting a zero-fee label.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Method</th><th>When FX happens</th><th>Who pays the biller</th><th>Best for</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Bharat Connect cross-border</td><td>At payment</td><td>You, directly</td><td>Bills paid from a foreign account</td></tr>
<tr><td>UPI on NRE or NRO</td><td>When you fund the account</td><td>You, in rupees</td><td>Frequent bills, existing Indian accounts</td></tr>
<tr><td>UPI Circle delegation</td><td>When you fund the account</td><td>A relative, within limits</td><td>Small day-to-day spending</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cash to a relative</td><td>Every transfer</td><td>A relative</td><td>Last resort</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Risks worth taking seriously</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Fake disconnection messages.</b> Texts warning that power will be cut tonight unless you pay through a link are among India's most common frauds. Pay only through your bank, a UPI app or a Bharat Connect flow. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> lists the usual patterns.</li>
<li><b>Wrong consumer numbers.</b> Direct payment is only as good as the reference you enter. Save each biller once and check the name the system fetches.</li>
<li><b>Account status.</b> Once you become non-resident, resident savings accounts should be redesignated as NRO. Paying bills from an account that should have been converted creates paperwork later.</li>
<li><b>Tax records.</b> Rental income you receive in India is taxable there and may be taxable where you live. Keep receipts for property tax and maintenance you pay against it.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">The cheapest bill payment is the one that never passes through a third pair of hands.</blockquote>

<h2>A sensible setup for 2026</h2>
<p>For most NRIs a layered approach works. Fund an NRE account in larger, less frequent transfers when costs are low, link it to UPI with your overseas number, and pay utilities, insurance and fees in rupees on the due date. Where a provider in your country offers Bharat Connect cross-border payments, use it for bills you want settled straight from a foreign account. Give a parent delegated UPI access for small daily spending. If you live in the Gulf, our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India guide</a> covers the local options. We think the biggest gain is not the saving on fees. It is the end of the midnight phone call about a disconnection notice.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information, not tax, legal or financial advice. Check current rules with your bank and a qualified adviser.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bill-payments-for-nri.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Investment Opportunity 2026: Where the $306B Market Makes Money</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-investment-opportunity-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-investment-opportunity-2026/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>A data-led map of the stablecoin investment opportunity in 2026: market size, issuer float, payment pipes, M&amp;A prices, Circle&#x27;s numbers and the key risks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-investment-opportunity-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Strip away the token charts and the stablecoin business looks like a very old one: take in dollars, pay the holder nothing, buy Treasury bills, keep the difference. That single fact explains most of the investment case for stablecoins in 2026, and most of what can go wrong with it.</p>

<h2>How big the market is, as of October 2026</h2>
<p>Total stablecoin supply stood at about $306 billion in mid-October 2026, according to <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DefiLlama's stablecoin dashboard</a>. Tether's USDT accounts for roughly $184 billion of that and Circle's USDC for about $73 billion. Together the two hold around 84% of all supply. The long tail is real but small: Sky's USDS near $7 billion, Ethena's USDe and Dai under $5 billion each, PayPal USD close to $2.9 billion and Ripple USD around $2.4 billion.</p>
<p>Forecasts are much larger. Citi lifted its 2030 base case to $1.9 trillion in late 2025, with a bull case of $4 trillion, and a16z has sketched a path past $3 trillion. Treat those as scenarios rather than destinations. The more useful number is the gap between how much stablecoins move and how much of that is commerce. a16z counted $46 trillion of transactions over the year to its 2025 report, or $9 trillion after stripping out bots and churn. McKinsey, looking only at genuine payments, put the figure near $390 billion a year based on December 2025 activity, about 0.02% of global payment flows.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$306B</b><span>total stablecoin supply, Oct 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>84%</b><span>share held by USDT and USDC</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$390B</b><span>estimated annual real payments</span></div></div>

<p>That gap is the opportunity in one line. Supply is large; payment use is still a rounding error against card networks and bank wires. Investors are betting on the gap closing, and the question is who gets paid when it does.</p>

<h2>Revenue pool one: the float</h2>
<p>Issuers earn interest on reserves. Circle's <a href="https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_news/2026/Aug/05/CIRCLE_Q2-2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second-quarter 2026 results</a> show the shape of it. Total revenue and reserve income was $701 million, up 7% on the year, while USDC in circulation grew 19% to $73.3 billion. Revenue lagged supply because the reserve return rate fell to 3.5%, down 66 basis points. Distribution and transaction costs came to about $410 million, which means well over half of the top line flowed to the exchanges and platforms that hold and promote USDC. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million and net income $48 million.</p>
<p>Tether runs the same model with far less sharing. It reported roughly $1.5 billion of net operating profit for the quarter, per <a href="https://decrypt.co/374796/tether-reports-1-5b-q2-profit-usdt-supply-grows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decrypt</a>, with an excess reserve buffer of about $4.1 billion. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> goes through the mechanics. The lesson for investors is that the float is enormous, but it is mostly a rates trade, and whoever controls distribution takes a large cut.</p>

<h2>Revenue pool two: the pipes that move the money</h2>
<p>The second pool is fee income from moving stablecoins between people and businesses. It includes payment orchestration, on- and off-ramps into local currency, card programs, and business payouts. McKinsey estimated business-to-business stablecoin payments at around $226 billion a year, about 60% of real payment volume, after growth of more than 700% in 2025. Payroll and remittances added roughly $90 billion, and card-linked spending about $4.5 billion.</p>
<p>Incumbents are building here too. Circle's own payments network was running at $14.7 billion of annualized volume at the end of June, with 175 financial institutions enrolled, and its non-interest revenue rose 41% to $34 million. Visa says its stablecoin settlement has passed a $20 billion annual run rate. These businesses earn a fee per transaction, so their economics do not collapse when the Fed cuts rates. That is why they attract a different kind of investor than issuers do.</p>

<h2>What the M&A tape says</h2>
<p>Prices paid for private companies are the clearest signal of what strategic buyers value. Stripe paid $1.1 billion for Bridge in February 2025. In March 2026 Mastercard agreed to buy London-based BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, including $300 million of contingent payments, according to <a href="https://www.fortune.com/2026/03/17/mastercard-bvnk-acquisition-stablecoins-1-8-billion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortune</a>. BVNK had been valued at $750 million in its December 2024 Series B. Coinbase had earlier walked away from talks near $2 billion, and Mastercard's reported pursuit of Zerohash at $1.5 billion to $2 billion fell through.</p>
<p>What are buyers actually paying for? Mostly licences, banking partners, compliance teams and live corridors, the things that take years to assemble. Technology alone rarely commands these prices. A card network executive described the goal as reaching new addressable markets, and the target in Mastercard's case was cross-border business flows that cards never captured well.</p>

<h2>Public market signals</h2>
<p>Circle's June 2025 listing gave public investors their first pure stablecoin stock, and our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/">Circle's IPO and stablecoins in public markets</a> covers that debut. Since then the share price has behaved like a sensitivity gauge for two variables: USDC growth and short-term interest rates. The second quarter showed both forces at once. On-chain USDC volume reached $14.8 trillion, up 151%, yet revenue grew only 7%. Circle is also launching its own blockchain, Arc, whose public mainnet was scheduled for 16 September 2026 with validators including BlackRock, DTCC and Visa. Investors are watching whether network businesses like this can diversify income away from the float.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The float pays the bills today, but the businesses that earn a fee on every payment are the ones built for a world of lower rates.</blockquote>

<h2>A framework for what investors look at</h2>
<p>Whether the target is a listed issuer, a private payouts company or an infrastructure provider, the same handful of questions keeps coming up in diligence:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Rate sensitivity.</b> How much revenue disappears with each cut? On $73 billion of reserves, a 25 basis point drop removes roughly $180 million of gross annual income before any sharing.</li>
<li><b>Distribution economics.</b> Who owns the customer, and what share of income must be paid to keep them?</li>
<li><b>Licences and jurisdictions.</b> Is the company authorised under the GENIUS Act, MiCA, or Gulf and Asian regimes? See our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA rules</a>.</li>
<li><b>Real payment volume.</b> Raw on-chain volume flatters everyone. Investors want merchant, payroll and supplier flows with repeat customers.</li>
<li><b>Take rate and corridor mix.</b> What does the company earn per $1,000 moved, and how concentrated is volume in one or two corridors?</li>
</ul>

<h2>The risks that matter</h2>
<p><b>Rates.</b> Issuer income is a direct function of Treasury yields. Circle's quarter already showed revenue growth trailing supply growth as yields eased.</p>
<p><b>Regulation.</b> The GENIUS Act in the United States and Canada's new Stablecoin Act both bar issuers from paying yield to holders, which protects banks but caps one route to growth. Rules on reserves, redemption and licensing are still being written in several countries, and a change in any of them can reshape margins.</p>
<p><b>Concentration.</b> Two issuers hold about 84% of supply, and USDT alone holds about 60%. Any company whose volume rides on one token or one banking partner carries that dependency. A loss of confidence in a major issuer would hit the whole value chain.</p>
<p><b>Volume quality.</b> Headline transaction numbers mix trading, internal transfers and automated activity. The $9 trillion versus $390 billion contrast is a reminder that diligence starts by asking which figure a company is quoting.</p>
<p>For a wider view of supply trends, read our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report for 2026</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This article presents data and frameworks for general information. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any security, token or company.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-investment-opportunity-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>NRE vs NRO vs FCNR Accounts: Rules, Tax and the $1M Limit (2026)</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>NRE, NRO and FCNR(B) accounts compared for 2026: what money goes where, the USD 1 million NRO cap, 31.2% TDS, joint holders and the $127B FCNR rush.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 21 August 2026, Indian banks had collected $65.4 billion in fresh foreign currency deposits from non-residents under a Reserve Bank of India swap scheme. Ten days later the figure was $127.2 billion. Nearly half of the biggest NRI deposit drive in the country's history arrived in a final sprint, and almost all of it went into one kind of account: the FCNR(B). For most of the 2026 rupee slide, the question for families abroad was never whether to keep money in India. It was which of three accounts to keep it in, and the answer is more mechanical than the bank brochures suggest.</p>

<p>The three accounts are the Non-Resident External (NRE) account, the Non-Resident Ordinary (NRO) account and the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposit, usually written FCNR(B). All three are governed by the Foreign Exchange Management (Deposit) Regulations, 2016 and the RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=10382" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Master Direction on deposits and accounts</a>. They differ on three things that matter: where the money came from, what currency it sits in, and how freely it can leave India again. Get the first one right and the other two mostly follow.</p>

<h2>Three accounts, three different jobs</h2>

<p>The cleanest way to think about it is by source of funds. <b>Money you earned abroad</b> belongs in an NRE account or an FCNR(B) deposit. <b>Money you earn or hold in India</b>, such as rent from a flat in Coimbatore, a pension, dividends on shares bought before you left, or the proceeds of selling inherited land, belongs in an NRO account. The RBI describes NRO as an account for bona fide rupee transactions, which is a polite way of saying it is the bucket for everything Indian.</p>

<p>NRE and FCNR(B) share the same rules on repatriation, joint holding and loans. The difference is currency. An NRE account converts your dollars or dirhams into rupees the moment they land, so you carry the exchange rate risk. An FCNR(B) deposit keeps the money in the foreign currency itself. SBI, for example, offers FCNR(B) in <a href="https://www.sbi.co.in/portal/web/nri/fcnrb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US dollars, pounds, euros, Canadian and Australian dollars and yen</a>, with terms from one to five years. FCNR(B) is a term deposit only. There is no FCNR savings account, which is why most NRIs run an NRE savings account alongside it as the day-to-day wallet.</p>

<h2>What can go in and what can come out</h2>

<p>The table below condenses the rules as the RBI sets them out. It is the part most people get wrong, usually by depositing Indian income into an NRE account because the interest is tax-free.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>NRE</th><th>NRO</th><th>FCNR(B)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Currency</td><td>Indian rupee</td><td>Indian rupee</td><td>Foreign currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Account types</td><td>Savings, current, RD, FD</td><td>Savings, current, RD, FD</td><td>Term deposit only, 1 to 5 years</td></tr>
<tr><td>Typical credits</td><td>Inward remittances, transfers from other NRE/FCNR</td><td>Rent, pension, dividends, sale proceeds, gifts from residents under LRS</td><td>Inward remittances in a permitted currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Repatriation</td><td>Principal and interest, freely</td><td>Current income, plus up to USD 1 million per financial year</td><td>Principal and interest, freely</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest tax in India</td><td>Exempt while non-resident under FEMA</td><td>Taxable; TDS from 31.2%</td><td>Exempt while non-resident, and while RNOR</td></tr>
<tr><td>Exchange rate risk</td><td>Yours</td><td>Yours</td><td>None on the deposit itself</td></tr>
<tr><td>Joint with resident</td><td>Only a resident relative, former or survivor</td><td>Any resident, former or survivor</td><td>Only a resident relative, former or survivor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Two credits trip people up. First, current income such as rent can only go into an NRE account if the bank is satisfied that tax has been deducted or paid on it, so the default home for rent is still NRO. Second, NRO money can move to NRE, but that transfer counts against the USD 1 million annual cap and needs the tax paperwork described below. You cannot top up an NRE account from Indian income just by moving it between your own accounts.</p>

<h2>The USD 1 million NRO rule, read properly</h2>

<p>The NRO cap is widely misquoted. The rule allows repatriation of current income, meaning rent, interest, dividends and pension, without counting against any ceiling once tax is settled. On top of that, an NRI or person of Indian origin can send out up to USD 1 million per financial year from NRO balances, which covers capital such as sale proceeds or inheritance. Transfers into an NRE account count inside that million. Going above it needs RBI approval.</p>

<p>The paperwork changed this year. Since 1 April 2026, remittances fall under the Income-tax Act, 2025, and the old Forms 15CA and 15CB have been replaced by <a href="https://www.bdo.in/en-gb/news/2026/new-tax-declaration-forms-introduced-for-nri-remittances" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forms 145 and 146 under the Income-tax Rules, 2026</a>. Form 145 is the sender's declaration of what the money is and what tax applies. Form 146 is a chartered accountant's certificate, required for taxable remittances above Rs 5 lakh in a year, and it now carries a UDIN so the bank can check that it is genuine. If you claim a treaty rate, you quote your tax residency certificate number. Banks will not release a large NRO remittance without these forms, and they will not release it at all while tax on the underlying income is unpaid.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The NRO cap is a ceiling on capital, not on income. Most families never get near it.</blockquote>

<h2>How the interest is taxed</h2>

<p>NRE interest is exempt from Indian income tax. The new law moved the exemption into a schedule but kept its logic, and the Income Tax Department's FAQs, as <a href="https://southasianherald.com/tax-dept-clears-nri-doubts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported in July 2026</a>, confirm it still turns on your status under FEMA rather than on the income-tax day count. That distinction matters for anyone who spends long stretches in India: you can be a non-resident for FEMA and still trip the tax residency tests, or the other way round. Check both.</p>

<p>FCNR(B) interest is also exempt while you are a non-resident, and it stays exempt during the transitional "resident but not ordinarily resident" (RNOR) period after you return, which is why returning NRIs often leave FCNR deposits to run to maturity.</p>

<p>NRO interest is fully taxable and the bank deducts tax at source. The base rate is 30 percent plus surcharge and a 4 percent cess, which <a href="https://www.kotak.bank.in/en/stories-in-focus/nri/tds-on-nri-fds-key-facts-you-should-know.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">works out to 31.2 percent</a> for interest up to Rs 50 lakh and rises with the amount. A double taxation agreement can lower that. Under the India-UAE treaty the withholding rate on interest is 12.5 percent, provided you give the bank a tax residency certificate, Form 10F and a PAN. Note too that your country of residence may tax the interest as well, with credit for Indian tax. For how gifts and transfers to family are treated, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a>, and check your own position with a qualified adviser.</p>

<h2>Joint holders, mandates and the resident relative</h2>

<p>Joint holding is where the three accounts diverge in ways that matter for ageing parents. An NRE or FCNR(B) account can be held jointly with other NRIs, or with a resident <b>relative</b>, but only on a "former or survivor" basis. That means the resident can operate the account only after the NRI's death, or under a mandate, and the money is still treated as the NRI's. An NRO account can be held with any resident, again former or survivor.</p>

<p>Power of attorney holders on an NRO account are tightly fenced. They can make local rupee payments and remit current income, but they cannot repatriate capital to anyone except the account holder, cannot make gifts to residents from it and cannot move money to another NRO account. If the plan is for a sibling in India to manage a parent's bills, an NRO account with a mandate usually fits better than trying to stretch an NRE account. Our piece on caring for parents from abroad covers the practical setup.</p>

<h2>The 2026 FCNR(B) rush and what it tells you</h2>

<p>The summer's numbers show how sensitive NRI money is to price. With the rupee at a record 96.25 to the dollar in May 2026, as oil climbed above $110 a barrel, the RBI announced a concessional swap facility on 5 June and opened it on 8 June. Banks that raised fresh three to five year FCNR(B) deposits could swap the dollars with the central bank, which took on the hedging cost, and deposits raised this way were exempted from reserve requirements. On 17 June the RBI also lifted, until 30 September, the ceiling on fresh three to five year FCNR(B) rates and the rule tying long NRE rates to domestic ones.</p>

<p>The RBI's own tallies show $17.4 billion by 17 July and <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63274" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$36.7 billion by 31 July</a>. The window, due to run to the end of September, was closed early on 31 August at <a href="https://bsppd.business-standard.com/markets/news/fcnr-b-haul-soars-to-127-bn-on-final-sprint-exceeding-mkt-expectations-126090300001_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$127.2 billion</a>, with most money in five-year deposits.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$127.2B</b><span>FCNR(B) raised under the 2026 swap window</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$200.9B</b><span>NRI deposits outstanding, July 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>31.2%</b><span>Base TDS on NRO interest up to Rs 50 lakh</span></div></div>

<p>The flip side showed up in NRE accounts. In April to July 2026, net NRE inflows were just $207 million against $2.42 billion a year earlier, while FCNR(B) took $34.53 billion, according to <a href="https://morungexpress.com/nri-deposit-inflows-surge-nearly-7-fold-to-3624-billion-in-april-july-fy27-rbi-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI data reported by IANS</a>. NRE outstanding fell from $102.03 billion to $98.02 billion over the year. When the rupee is falling, people prefer the account that does not convert. The lesson for anyone deciding now is that the window has closed, the special rates applied only to deposits opened in it, and new FCNR(B) deposits are back under normal pricing.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one family, three accounts</h2>

<p>Take an engineer working in Abu Dhabi whose father in Thrissur has passed away, leaving a flat. The numbers below use real tax rates and limits; the interest rates are illustrative assumptions, not quotes.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Salary savings.</b> She sends AED 4,000 a month to India. Kept in an NRE fixed deposit of Rs 10 lakh at an assumed 6.5 percent, it earns Rs 65,000 a year with no Indian tax. The UAE does not levy personal income tax, so that is the full return, but the rupee value of her savings moves with the exchange rate.</li>
<li><b>Dollar reserve.</b> A separate $20,000 sits in a five-year FCNR(B) deposit. If the rupee weakens, the deposit's value in her home currency does not change, and the interest is tax-free in India.</li>
<li><b>Inherited flat.</b> The flat sells for Rs 1.2 crore. The proceeds must go to an NRO account. At an illustrative Rs 95 to the dollar, USD 1 million is about Rs 9.5 crore, so the whole sale fits inside one year's cap. Before the bank sends it, capital gains tax must be settled, she files Form 145, and a chartered accountant issues Form 146.</li>
<li><b>Parked proceeds.</b> If Rs 10 lakh of the sale money stays in an NRO fixed deposit at an assumed 7 percent, interest is Rs 70,000. Default TDS at 31.2 percent is Rs 21,840. With a UAE tax residency certificate and Form 10F, the treaty rate of 12.5 percent cuts that to Rs 8,750, a saving of Rs 13,090 a year.</li>
</ul>

<p>The order of operations matters more than the rates. Paperwork for the treaty rate should be with the bank before the first interest credit, not after, because recovering over-deducted tax means filing a return and waiting for a refund.</p>

<h2>Mistakes that cost real money</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Keeping a resident savings account after leaving.</b> FEMA requires resident accounts to be redesignated as NRO once you become a non-resident.</li>
<li><b>Putting Indian rent into NRE.</b> Unless tax has been dealt with, rent belongs in NRO. Mixing it into NRE muddies the tax-free status of the whole balance.</li>
<li><b>Assuming NRE is tax-free everywhere.</b> It is exempt in India. The US, UK and Canada generally tax worldwide interest of their residents.</li>
<li><b>Ignoring the FEMA and tax mismatch.</b> A long visit home can change your tax residency even while your accounts are correctly non-resident. Read our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a> explainer alongside the tax rules.</li>
</ul>

<p>For moving money into these accounts in the first place, the cost of the transfer often outweighs a quarter-point of interest. Our corridor guides on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India</a> and the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> show where the spread goes.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>16 October 2026:</b> last date for banks to use the RBI swap on FCNR(B) deposits raised in the window. After that, the facility's deposit leg is done; the five-year deposits it created mature in 2031, which is a refinancing question for banks to watch.</li>
<li><b>31 December 2026:</b> the parallel swap window for external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowings closes.</li>
<li><b>RBI deposit regulations:</b> whether the temporary removal of NRE and FCNR(B) rate ceilings, which lapsed on 30 September, returns if the rupee comes under pressure again.</li>
<li><b>Tax year 2026-27 returns:</b> the first returns under the Income-tax Act, 2025 will be filed in 2027. Watch for final section mappings and any change in how the NRE exemption is drafted.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains rules as published by the RBI and the Income Tax Department. It is general information, not tax or legal advice. Rules change and individual circumstances differ, so check your position with a qualified adviser before moving money. If you are planning to return, our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/">moving back to India money checklist</a> covers what happens to each account.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Companies to Watch in 2026: Issuers and Rails</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The largest stablecoin issuers and infrastructure firms in 2026, from Tether and Circle to Bridge, BVNK and Zerohash, with supply, deals and funding data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A treasury analyst at a freight forwarder in Rotterdam opens her dashboard on a Monday in October 2026 and sees three dollar balances that are not held at any bank: USDT from a supplier in Shenzhen, USDC from a client in Austin, and a small float of PYUSD that a marketplace paid out last week. Each token is a promise from a different company, held to a different standard, redeemable through a different chain of partners. Picking which stablecoin companies matter is no longer an exercise for crypto traders. It is supplier due diligence.</p>

<p><b>How we chose.</b> We looked at companies with measurable scale as of October 2026: circulating supply for issuers, and volume, licences, funding or acquisition price for infrastructure firms. We also weighed regulatory standing and product breadth. We group companies by role rather than numbering them, and within the issuer group we order by reported supply. Every figure below is dated and linked to the source we checked.</p>

<h2>Who are the largest stablecoin companies in 2026?</h2>
<p>As of October 2026, the largest stablecoin company by supply is Tether, issuer of USDT at about $184 billion, followed by Circle, issuer of USDC at about $73 billion, according to DefiLlama data. Together they account for roughly 84% of a market worth about $306 billion. Behind them sits a long tail of issuers, each under $10 billion, and a fast-consolidating layer of infrastructure companies.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$306B</b><span>total stablecoin supply, Oct 2026 (DefiLlama)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>~60%</b><span>USDT share of supply</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$14.8T</b><span>onchain USDC volume, Q2 2026 (Circle)</span></div></div>
<p>The concentration is the headline, but the more interesting story of 2026 is the money flowing into the plumbing. Card networks, payment processors and prime brokers have spent several billion dollars buying stablecoin infrastructure in the past twenty months, and those deals tell you where incumbents think the profits will be. For the history of how the market reached this size, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report</a>.</p>

<h2>Which companies issue the biggest stablecoins?</h2>
<p>In 2026 the biggest dollar stablecoins are issued by Tether, Circle, Sky, Ethena, World Liberty Financial, Paxos (including for PayPal) and Ripple. Only Tether and Circle exceed $10 billion. As of mid-October 2026 the others range from about $2 billion to $7 billion on DefiLlama, and their supply has been volatile, with some losing a third or more within months as exchange incentives changed.</p>

<h3>Tether (USDT)</h3>
<p>Tether is the largest issuer by a wide margin. Its first-quarter 2026 reserve report showed net profit of $1.04 billion, total assets of $191.7 billion against liabilities of $183.5 billion, and direct and indirect US Treasury exposure of $141 billion, which <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/05/276745-tether-reports-1-billion-in-profit-for-q1-2026-shares-reserve-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider reported</a> would make it the 17th-largest holder of Treasuries in the world. Reserves also included about $20 billion of physical gold and $7 billion of bitcoin. The attestation was prepared by BDO; Tether says a full audit has begun. In January 2026 it launched USAT, a US-regulated dollar token issued through Anchorage Digital.</p>

<h3>Circle (USDC)</h3>
<p>Circle, now a listed company, had $73.3 billion of USDC in circulation at the end of June 2026, up 19% on a year earlier. Its <a href="https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_news/2026/Aug/05/CIRCLE_Q2-2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second-quarter results</a> showed $701 million of revenue and reserve income, $48 million of net income from continuing operations and $14.8 trillion of onchain USDC volume, up 151%. Its Circle Payments Network had 175 financial institutions enrolled and an annualised run rate of $14.7 billion, and its Arc blockchain was due for public mainnet on September 16, 2026.</p>

<h3>Sky (USDS and DAI)</h3>
<p>Sky, the rebranded MakerDAO, runs the largest decentralised dollar. Its newer USDS token had about $6.9 billion in circulation in mid-October 2026, ahead of legacy DAI at about $4.7 billion, according to <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DefiLlama's stablecoin dashboard</a>. Both are backed by onchain collateral and real-world assets rather than a single bank account, which makes Sky the main counterweight to the custodial model.</p>

<h3>World Liberty Financial (USD1)</h3>
<p>USD1, issued by World Liberty Financial with reserves custodied by BitGo, had about $4.15 billion in circulation in mid-October 2026, per DefiLlama, making it the sixth-largest dollar stablecoin. The project's political links draw scrutiny, and readers should note that independent reserve reporting is thinner than for the larger issuers.</p>

<h3>Ethena (USDe)</h3>
<p>Ethena's USDe is a synthetic dollar backed by crypto collateral and offsetting derivatives positions rather than cash. Supply stood at about $4.8 billion in mid-October 2026, per DefiLlama, slightly ahead of DAI. Its returns come from funding rates on derivatives, which rise and fall with crypto markets. It is a yield product with market risk, not a payment token in the conventional sense.</p>

<h3>Paxos and PayPal (PYUSD, USDG)</h3>
<p>Paxos is the white-label issuer behind PayPal's PYUSD and the Global Dollar (USDG). In December 2025 it received approval to convert its New York trust charter into a federal one supervised by the OCC, as <a href="https://www.skadden.com/about/news-and-rankings/news/2025/12/paxos-receives-approval-to-convert-to-occ-trust" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Skadden, its counsel, announced</a>. PYUSD reached about $4.1 billion in March 2026, when PayPal expanded it from two markets to 70, <a href="https://coin360.com/news/paypal-pyusd-70-countries-4-1b-stablecoin-expansion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COIN360 reported</a>, then fell to about $2.9 billion by mid-October, per DefiLlama. Paxos's own USDG was slightly larger, at about $3.0 billion.</p>

<h3>Ripple (RLUSD)</h3>
<p>Ripple's RLUSD, issued under a New York trust charter, grew from about $130 million in mid-2025 to about $2.4 billion in mid-October 2026, per DefiLlama. Ripple uses it as a settlement asset inside its payments product, which we explain in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-payments-explained/">how Ripple Payments works</a>.</p>

<h3>First Digital (FDUSD)</h3>
<p>Hong Kong's First Digital shows how fragile second-tier supply can be. FDUSD was once a leading Binance trading pair, but by mid-October 2026 it was no longer among the 23 stablecoins above about $490 million on DefiLlama. In April 2025 it briefly lost its dollar peg after Tron founder Justin Sun alleged that First Digital Trust could not meet redemptions, <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/cefi/justin-sun-declares-first-digital-trust-insolvent-fdusd-depegs-binance-holds-1-fcdb4d5a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant reported</a>. It remains one to watch because of its base in Hong Kong, where the new stablecoin licensing regime is taking shape.</p>

<h2>Which companies build stablecoin infrastructure?</h2>
<p>Stablecoin infrastructure companies issue tokens for others, connect bank accounts to blockchains, hold keys and run payout networks. In 2025 and 2026 the leaders were Bridge (owned by Stripe), BVNK (being bought by Mastercard), Zerohash, Fireblocks and Anchorage Digital. Their valuations and acquisition prices now run from about $1 billion to over $4 billion.</p>

<h3>Bridge (Stripe)</h3>
<p>Stripe bought Bridge for $1.1 billion in February 2025, its largest acquisition, and in February 2026 Bridge won conditional OCC approval to organise a national trust bank, according to <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/blockchain-crypto-digital-assets/bridge-secures-conditional-occ-approval-for-national-trust-bank-charter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. Bridge provides APIs that let companies accept, hold and issue stablecoins, and its charter would let it hold reserves under federal supervision rather than relying on partner banks.</p>

<h3>BVNK</h3>
<p>London-founded BVNK runs stablecoin payment accounts and payouts for businesses in more than 130 countries. Mastercard agreed in March 2026 to acquire it for up to $1.8 billion, including $300 million of contingent payments, with completion expected by the end of 2026, <a href="https://coin360.com/news/mastercard-bvnk-1-8b-stablecoin-acquisition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COIN360 reported</a>. BVNK had been valued at about $750 million in 2024, and Coinbase had earlier held talks near $2 billion.</p>

<h3>Zerohash</h3>
<p>Chicago-based Zerohash supplies crypto and stablecoin rails to brokers and fintechs including Interactive Brokers, Stripe and Shift4. It was valued at $1 billion in September 2025 after a $104 million round led by Interactive Brokers, and in May 2026 was reported to be seeking a valuation above $1.5 billion, per <a href="https://crypto.news/zerohash-seeks-1-5b-valuation-after-mastercard-exit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crypto.news</a>, citing CoinDesk. Mastercard had considered buying it before choosing BVNK.</p>

<h3>Fireblocks</h3>
<p>Fireblocks provides wallet and key-management technology to banks and exchanges. In August 2026 its Network for Payments was handling more than $100 billion a month in stablecoin transactions across more than 40 live payment providers, banks and fintechs, with over $200 billion a month across its wider platform, according to <a href="https://cryptobriefing.com/fireblocks-network-payments-stablecoin-transactions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crypto Briefing</a>.</p>

<h3>Anchorage Digital</h3>
<p>Anchorage operates a federally regulated digital asset bank in the US and issues Tether's USAT. In February 2026 Tether invested $100 million at a $4.2 billion valuation, as <a href="https://theblock.co/post/388639/tether-deepens-ties-with-anchorage-digital-through-100m-equity-investment-at-4-2b-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>, alongside an employee tender at the same price. It is the clearest example of an offshore issuer buying a regulated US channel.</p>

<h2>How do the leading stablecoin companies compare?</h2>
<p>The table below sets out each company's base, role and latest dated metric as of October 2026. Supply figures for issuers come from DefiLlama and company results; infrastructure figures come from company results and press reports. The metrics are not directly comparable across rows, because issuers are measured by tokens outstanding and infrastructure firms by price, valuation or volume.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Tether</td><td>El Salvador</td><td>Issues USDT, USAT</td><td>~$184B USDT supply (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Circle</td><td>USA</td><td>Issues USDC, EURC; runs CPN, Arc</td><td>$73.3B USDC (Jun 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sky</td><td>Onchain protocol</td><td>Issues USDS, DAI</td><td>~$6.9B USDS (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>World Liberty Financial</td><td>USA</td><td>Issues USD1</td><td>~$4.15B (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ethena</td><td>Onchain protocol</td><td>Synthetic dollar USDe</td><td>~$4.8B (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Paxos / PayPal</td><td>USA</td><td>Issues PYUSD, USDG</td><td>~$2.9B PYUSD (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ripple</td><td>USA</td><td>Issues RLUSD; payments</td><td>~$2.4B RLUSD (Oct 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bridge (Stripe)</td><td>USA</td><td>Issuance and orchestration APIs</td><td>$1.1B purchase (Feb 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>BVNK</td><td>UK</td><td>Stablecoin business payments</td><td>Up to $1.8B Mastercard deal (Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Zerohash</td><td>USA</td><td>Crypto and stablecoin rails</td><td>$1B valuation (Sep 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fireblocks</td><td>USA</td><td>Wallets, payments network</td><td>$100B+ monthly network volume (Aug 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Anchorage Digital</td><td>USA</td><td>Federally regulated crypto bank</td><td>$4.2B valuation (Feb 2026)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>How much does each dollar of stablecoin earn? A worked example</h2>
<p>Stablecoin issuers earn mainly from interest on reserves, so revenue per dollar outstanding is a useful yardstick. Using 2026 results, Circle earned about 3.8 cents of gross revenue per USDC dollar on an annualised basis, while Tether's annualised profit was about 2.3 cents per dollar of liabilities. The gap between gross revenue and profit is where distribution deals bite.</p>
<p>Here is the arithmetic, using the companies' own reported figures:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Circle, Q2 2026.</b> $701 million of quarterly revenue and reserve income, multiplied by four, is about $2.8 billion a year. Divided by $73.3 billion of USDC, that is roughly 3.8%. But net income from continuing operations was only $48 million in the quarter, or about 0.26% annualised. Most of the gross income is paid away to distribution partners and spent on operations.</li>
<li><b>Tether, Q1 2026.</b> $1.04 billion of quarterly profit, multiplied by four, is about $4.2 billion. Divided by $183.5 billion of liabilities, that is about 2.3% as profit, not revenue, and Tether's figure includes gains on gold and bitcoin as well as interest.</li>
<li><b>Concentration.</b> USDT at about $184 billion plus USDC at about $73 billion is $257 billion, or 84% of the $306 billion market. The next six tokens in this article (USDS, DAI, USDe, USD1, PYUSD and RLUSD) add up to roughly $26 billion, about 8%, on mid-October DefiLlama data.</li>
</ul>
<p>The lesson is that size alone does not decide profitability. Circle's business model rewards the exchanges and wallets that hold USDC, while Tether keeps most of its spread. Every smaller issuer faces the same choice: pay heavily for distribution, as PYUSD and FDUSD did through incentives, or stay small. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> goes deeper.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The stablecoin market has two giants and a crowd of companies renting their way to relevance.</blockquote>

<h2>Why are incumbents buying stablecoin companies?</h2>
<p>Between February 2025 and March 2026, Stripe, Mastercard, Ripple and others agreed deals worth more than $5 billion for stablecoin infrastructure. The buyers want licences, banking relationships and engineering teams that would take years to build, and they want them before US rules under the GENIUS Act fully take effect.</p>
<p>The pattern is consistent. Stripe paid $1.1 billion for Bridge's issuance and orchestration stack. Mastercard agreed up to $1.8 billion for BVNK's payout network. Ripple paid $1.25 billion for prime broker Hidden Road, $200 million for Rail and $1 billion for treasury software firm GTreasury. Tether bought into Anchorage at $4.2 billion. Each deal joins a company with distribution (merchants, cardholders, institutions) to a company with stablecoin rails.</p>
<p>For businesses choosing providers, consolidation cuts both ways. A Mastercard-owned BVNK or Stripe-owned Bridge brings a balance sheet and compliance resources a start-up cannot match. It also brings product roadmaps set by a parent whose interests may not align with a small corridor. Our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026/">stablecoin start-up funding</a> track the trade-offs.</p>

<h2>What should you watch next?</h2>
<p>Over the next six months, the events most likely to reshape this list are the closing of Mastercard's BVNK deal, US federal trust charters moving from conditional to final, Tether's first full audit, and the implementation of GENIUS Act rules for issuers. Each could shift market share or open new distribution.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>BVNK closing, by end of 2026.</b> Mastercard expects completion by year end, subject to regulatory approvals. Watch whether BVNK's corridors are folded into Mastercard's cross-border products.</li>
<li><b>Federal trust charters.</b> Paxos, Bridge and Ripple all hold OCC approvals of varying finality. Final charters would let them hold reserves under one federal supervisor.</li>
<li><b>Tether's audit.</b> Tether says an audit has begun. A full audit from a major firm would remove the largest standing objection to USDT among US institutions.</li>
<li><b>GENIUS Act implementation.</b> Rules from US regulators will determine how offshore issuers such as Tether can serve American users, and why USAT exists. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act tracker</a> follows each rulemaking.</li>
<li><b>Zerohash's raise.</b> A round above $1.5 billion would confirm that independent infrastructure can still command premium valuations after the card networks' buying spree.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company or token. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may have changed since publication.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top Fintech Companies in India 2026: Who Leads and Why</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Leading fintech companies in India in 2026: PhonePe, Paytm, Groww, Zerodha, Razorpay, Pine Labs, CRED and more, with UPI share, IPOs, revenue and funding.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/india-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On the Ring Road textile markets in Surat, a saree wholesaler can close a day's trading without touching cash. Retail buyers scan a QR code taped to the counter, a speaker box reads out each credit in Gujarati, bulk orders go through a card terminal on the desk, and by evening the wholesaler is checking a mutual fund SIP on a phone app. Each of those steps belongs to a different Indian fintech company, and in 2026 several of them are public, profitable and arguing over who gets to keep the customer.</p>

<h2>How we chose these companies</h2>
<p>We picked the companies below using measurable criteria as of October 2026: scale (UPI share, users, customer assets), reported revenue and profit, listing status, funding and valuation, and breadth of regulated products. They are grouped by business type rather than ranked, because a payments app, a stockbroker and an insurance marketplace cannot sensibly be ranked against one another on a single number. Every figure is dated and linked to the source that reported it.</p>
<p>The backdrop is the payments rail itself. UPI processed 24.07 billion transactions in September 2026, or about 802 million a day on average, the first month above 800 million, according to NPCI figures reported by <a href="https://startuptalky.com/upi-transactions-september-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StartupTalky</a>. Because the rail is largely free to use, most Indian fintechs earn elsewhere: lending, broking, insurance, devices or software. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI explainer</a> covers how it works.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>802M</b><span>UPI payments per day, Sep 2026 (NPCI)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>45.6%</b><span>PhonePe share of UPI volume, Aug 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$2.0B</b><span>India fintech funding, H1 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>Who leads UPI payments in India in 2026?</h2>
<p>PhonePe is the largest UPI app in India in 2026, with 45.64% of transaction volume in August 2026, followed by Google Pay at 32.26% and Paytm at 8.03%, per NPCI data cited by StartupTalky. Together the top three handled about 86% of volume. Their grip is loosening slowly: PhonePe and Google Pay combined fell below 80% for the first time in May 2026.</p>
<p>The concentration story matters because NPCI has a standing rule that no single third-party app should exceed 30% of UPI volume, and the deadline for compliance was pushed to 31 December 2026, as <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/tech-today/news/story/npci-extends-30-upi-market-share-cap-deadline-on-3rd-party-apps-to-december-2026-459171-2024-12-31" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today reported</a> when the extension was announced at the end of 2024. That date is now less than three months away, and as of mid-October 2026 we found no NPCI announcement of a further extension or of how the cap will be enforced.</p>

<h3>PhonePe</h3>
<p>The Walmart-backed app is India's biggest payments brand by volume and has been preparing a listing for over a year. It filed confidentially in September 2025 and filed updated papers in March 2026, but the plan stalled; <a href="https://inc42.com/buzz/with-upi-mdr-clarity-phonepe-eyes-ipo-by-march-2027/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inc42 reported in September 2026</a> that it is now targeting a February to March 2027 listing at roughly $10 billion. In FY26 its operating revenue rose 11.5% to Rs 7,920.5 crore, while net loss widened 62% to Rs 2,792 crore.</p>

<h3>Google Pay and the challengers</h3>
<p>Google Pay is not Indian, but no honest map of UPI can leave it out. Behind the two leaders, a group of newer apps is chipping away. <a href="https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/phonepe-google-pay-combined-upi-market-share-drops-below-80-for-first-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Business reported in June 2026</a> that Navi and super.money together had reached about 5.5% of volume roughly two years after launch, and that the government's own BHIM app had grown fivefold to about 1% share. These are distribution plays, buying users on the rail to sell them credit later.</p>

<h2>Which Indian fintech companies are listed, and how are they doing?</h2>
<p>As of October 2026, India's listed fintech group includes Paytm (One97 Communications), Groww (Billionbrains Garage Ventures), Pine Labs and PB Fintech, the parent of PolicyBazaar. All four reported a profit for the quarter ended June 2026. Groww and Pine Labs listed in November 2025, during a run of five fintech IPOs in the second half of 2025, according to Tracxn data reported in July 2026.</p>

<h3>Paytm</h3>
<p>Paytm has completed a turnaround that few investors priced in two years ago. In Q1 FY27 it reported operating revenue of Rs 2,448 crore, up 28%, and profit after tax of Rs 220 crore, up 79%, with a record quarterly EBITDA of Rs 203 crore, according to <a href="https://paytm.com/blog/investor-relations/paytm-q1-fy27-results-revenue-grows-28-to-2448-crore-highest-ever-quarterly-ebitda-at-203-crore/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the company's results release</a>. It had 8 crore monthly transacting users and 1.57 crore merchants paying for devices such as soundboxes. Financial services revenue, mostly loan distribution, grew 45% to Rs 814 crore, which tells you where the margin really lives.</p>

<h3>Groww</h3>
<p>Groww's parent raised about $752 million in its IPO and closed its first trading day, 12 November 2025, up about 31% with a market value of roughly $9.1 billion, <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/capital-markets/groww-parent-set-for-mumbai-trading-debut-after-752-million-ipo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a>. In Q1 FY27 it earned Rs 735 crore of net profit on Rs 1,501 crore of revenue, per YourStory, with 2.2 crore transacting users and Rs 3.6 lakh crore of customer assets.</p>

<h3>Pine Labs</h3>
<p>Pine Labs is the merchant-side counterweight to the UPI apps: card terminals, checkout software and issuing technology for banks and brands. It listed on 14 November 2025 after a Rs 3,900 crore IPO and closed its debut at a market value of about Rs 28,937 crore, per Business Standard. In Q1 FY27 operating revenue rose 20% to Rs 736.9 crore and net profit reached Rs 19.6 crore on gross transaction value of about Rs 4.22 lakh crore, <a href="https://inc42.com/buzz/pine-labs-q1-profit-surges-4x-yoy-to-₹20-cr-revenue-up-20/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inc42 reported</a>.</p>

<h3>PB Fintech (PolicyBazaar)</h3>
<p>The insurance and credit marketplace has quietly become one of the most consistent earners in Indian fintech. Q1 FY27 operating revenue rose 40% to Rs 1,888.3 crore and net profit nearly doubled to Rs 162.9 crore, on Rs 8,372 crore of insurance premium, according to Inc42.</p>

<h2>Which private fintechs are the largest in India?</h2>
<p>The largest private Indian fintechs in 2026 are Zerodha, the discount broker that remains the most profitable fintech in the country, payment gateway Razorpay, which plans to list within FY27, credit card rewards app CRED, valued at about $4.5 billion in June 2026, and payment orchestration company Juspay, which became a unicorn in 2025 and was valued at about $1.2 billion in January 2026.</p>

<h3>Zerodha</h3>
<p>Zerodha has never raised outside capital and still earns more than any listed peer. Its net profit was Rs 4,283 crore in FY26, up about 1% from Rs 4,231 crore, on revenue roughly flat with FY25's Rs 8,847 crore, per <a href="https://yourstory.com/2026/08/zerodha-marks-16-years-with-steady-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YourStory</a> and Inc42. Zerodha shares indicative figures rather than audited filings at that point, so treat them as approximate. SEBI's tighter derivatives rules have flattened the top line, and its share of NSE active clients slipped to about 14.9% in July 2026. It is a cash machine that has stopped growing.</p>

<h3>Razorpay</h3>
<p>Razorpay is a payment gateway for online businesses that has added SME accounts, payroll and lending. Its FY25 operating revenue rose 65% to Rs 3,783 crore, but one-time ESOP and tax costs tied to moving its domicile back to India pushed it into a loss, according to Inc42's October 2025 report. Its CFO said a listing within FY27 is the goal, which would put it in the same IPO window as PhonePe.</p>

<h3>CRED</h3>
<p>CRED raised $900 million in a Series H led by Meta in June 2026 at a post-money valuation of about $4.5 billion, <a href="https://inc42.com/buzz/cred-raises-900-mn-from-meta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inc42 reported</a>. In FY25 it posted Rs 2,735 crore of operating revenue, up 16%, and cut its operating loss by 51% to Rs 298 crore. Its affluent card-holder base suits lending and bill payment products.</p>

<h3>Juspay</h3>
<p>Juspay builds payment orchestration and checkout infrastructure used by more than 500 enterprises and banks, and says it processes over 300 million transactions a day with annualised volume above $1 trillion, per <a href="https://entrackr.com/news/juspay-raises-50-mn-from-westbridge-capital-at-12-bn-valuation-11023645" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Entrackr's January 2026 report</a> of a $50 million round at about $1.2 billion. FY25 revenue was Rs 540 crore with a Rs 62 crore profit, a rare profitable infrastructure business at this size.</p>

<h2>Which Indian fintechs are turnaround or challenger stories?</h2>
<p>The clearest turnaround stories in Indian fintech in 2026 are BharatPe, which turned EBITDA positive in FY25 after years of heavy losses, and Jupiter, a digital-banking app that raised fresh money in late 2025. CoinDCX is the largest name in the regulated crypto segment, with Coinbase investing at a $2.45 billion valuation in October 2025.</p>

<h3>BharatPe</h3>
<p>BharatPe built a merchant QR, card terminal and lending business for small shops. In FY25 operating revenue rose 16.9% to Rs 1,667 crore, EBITDA turned positive at Rs 47 crore and the net loss fell 82% to Rs 88 crore, per Entrackr. Management has talked about an IPO after FY26.</p>

<h3>Jupiter</h3>
<p>Jupiter raised $15 million from existing investors in October 2025, Entrackr reported, after last being valued at about $710 million in 2021. It says it has over 3 million customers, about 60% of them active, and more than a million active users of its <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/">Account Aggregator</a> feature.</p>

<h3>CoinDCX</h3>
<p>CoinDCX is one of India's largest crypto exchanges, with more than 20 million users as of mid-2025. Coinbase invested in it in October 2025 at a post-money valuation of about $2.45 billion, Outlook Business reported, months after CoinDCX lost roughly $44 million in a July 2025 breach that it said did not touch customer funds. The sector's direction depends heavily on policy; our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-crypto-regulation-2026/">India crypto regulation guide</a> covers the current rules.</p>

<h2>How do India's leading fintechs compare?</h2>
<p>The table sets out each company's core business and latest dated metric. Metrics differ by company, so treat it as a map, not a league table.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>PhonePe</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>UPI app, merchant payments, insurance, broking</td><td>45.64% UPI volume share, Aug 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Paytm</td><td>Noida</td><td>Payments, soundboxes, loan distribution</td><td>Rs 2,448 cr revenue, Q1 FY27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Groww</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>Stock broking, mutual funds</td><td>Rs 735 cr net profit, Q1 FY27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Zerodha</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>Discount stock broking</td><td>Rs 4,283 cr net profit, FY26</td></tr>
<tr><td>PB Fintech</td><td>Gurugram</td><td>Insurance and credit marketplace</td><td>Rs 1,888 cr revenue, Q1 FY27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Pine Labs</td><td>Noida</td><td>Merchant terminals, checkout, issuing</td><td>Rs 4.22 lakh cr GTV, Q1 FY27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Razorpay</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>Payment gateway, SME banking</td><td>Rs 3,783 cr revenue, FY25</td></tr>
<tr><td>CRED</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>Card rewards, bill pay, lending</td><td>$4.5B valuation, Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Juspay</td><td>Bengaluru</td><td>Payment orchestration</td><td>$1.2B valuation, Jan 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>BharatPe</td><td>India</td><td>Merchant QR, lending</td><td>Rs 1,667 cr revenue, FY25</td></tr>
<tr><td>CoinDCX</td><td>Mumbai</td><td>Crypto exchange</td><td>$2.45B valuation, Oct 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>How much funding did Indian fintech raise in 2025 and 2026?</h2>
<p>Indian fintech companies raised about $2.4 billion in 2025, up 2% on 2024, keeping India third globally behind the US and UK, according to a Tracxn report covered by IANS in January 2026. In the first half of 2026 the sector raised about $2 billion, up 42% year on year, across far fewer rounds.</p>
<p>One data caution. In July 2025 Tracxn reported H1 2025 fintech funding of $889 million, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/industry/news/india-s-fintech-funding-dips-to-889-mn-in-h1-2025-tracxn-report-125070400711_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard covered</a>. Its July 2026 report compares H1 2026 against a revised H1 2025 figure of $1.4 billion, which is where the 42% growth comes from. Databases restate past periods as late-disclosed rounds come in; we use the revised $1.4 billion so the comparison is like for like.</p>
<p>The shape of the money changed more than its size. In 2025, early-stage funding jumped 78% to $1.2 billion while late-stage money fell to $1 billion. In H1 2026 that flipped: late-stage funding rose 331% to $1.6 billion, and the number of rounds dropped to 106 from 186 a year earlier, <a href="https://ianslive.in/indias-fintech-sector-raises-2-billion-in-jan-june-up-42-pc-yoy--20260716134920" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IANS reported in July 2026</a>. CRED's $900 million round alone accounts for a large share of that late-stage total. Bengaluru took 70% of H1 2026 fintech funding.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Indian fintech money is no longer spread across a hundred bets. It is concentrated on the handful of companies that can show a profit.</blockquote>
<p>IPOs and acquisitions are the other half. Tracxn counted five fintech IPOs in H2 2025, none in H1 2025, and two in H1 2026, Turtlemint and Kissht. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026/">fintech startups to watch</a> list covers the earlier-stage names globally.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what the 30% UPI cap would mean</h2>
<p>Take September 2026's 24.07 billion UPI transactions as a monthly baseline. A 30% ceiling would allow any single app about 7.22 billion transactions a month. PhonePe, at its August share of 45.64%, would be running at about 10.99 billion on that baseline. To comply, it would need to shed roughly 3.77 billion transactions a month, or about 125 million a day.</p>
<p>Google Pay, at 32.26%, would be about 7.77 billion, roughly 0.54 billion over the line, or 18 million a day. Paytm and everyone else are already well under it. Put another way, enforcing the cap on 1 January 2027 would require moving more than 4.3 billion payments a month to smaller apps, which is more than double Paytm's entire monthly volume. That arithmetic is why the deadline has already been extended once.</p>
<p class="note">Illustrative calculation using NPCI September 2026 volume and August 2026 app shares; actual monthly volumes vary.</p>

<h2>What to watch next in Indian fintech</h2>
<p>The next six months contain several dated decisions that will shape the ranking above. Anyone weighing a listed fintech stock should consult a qualified adviser.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>31 December 2026:</b> the NPCI deadline for the 30% UPI market share cap. Extension, phased enforcement or a hard cap would each reshape PhonePe's IPO story.</li>
<li><b>End of 2026:</b> PhonePe's expected updated IPO filing, ahead of a targeted February to March 2027 listing.</li>
<li><b>By March 2027:</b> the end of FY27, Razorpay's stated window for a listing.</li>
<li><b>Quarterly results:</b> Paytm, Groww, Pine Labs and PB Fintech report Q2 FY27 in late October and November 2026; watch whether lending distribution keeps growing faster than payments.</li>
<li><b>UPI pricing:</b> any change to merchant discount rules for large merchants, which Inc42 notes leaves about 96% of UPI transactions free.</li>
</ul>
<p>India's fintech winners increasingly look like financial services firms with a payments front door. The rail stays public, as our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">India Stack</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect</a> explain; the profit sits in what is sold over it.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may be revised.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/india-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>What Is a Stablecoin? A Plain-English Guide to Digital Dollars</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>Stablecoins explained without jargon: what they are, how a digital dollar holds its value, where USDT and USDC fit, and why it matters for families abroad.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-is-a-stablecoin.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">My aunt asked me last Diwali what a stablecoin was. She had heard the word on a WhatsApp forward, sandwiched between a cricket score and a recipe. I gave her the textbook answer and watched her eyes glaze over. So this is the answer I should have given.</p>

<h2>The short version</h2>
<p>A stablecoin is a digital dollar. Not a dollar in your bank, and not a coin in your pocket, but a token on the internet that is designed to always be worth one US dollar. You can send it to anyone with a phone in a few seconds, on a Sunday, at 2 a.m., without asking a bank's permission.</p>
<p>That's it. Everything else is detail.</p>

<h2>How does a digital dollar stay worth a dollar?</h2>
<p>The big stablecoins are backed by real money held somewhere else. For every token in circulation, the company that issued it keeps roughly a dollar of cash or very short-term US government debt in reserve. If you hand the token back, you're meant to get your dollar back. That promise is what keeps the price pinned.</p>
<p>It is a bit like a cloakroom ticket. The ticket itself is just paper, but everyone trusts it because the coat is hanging behind the counter. The quality of a stablecoin comes down to one question: is the coat really there?</p>
<p>That's exactly what new laws now check. In the United States, the GENIUS Act requires issuers to hold reserves at least equal to every token outstanding, restricts what those reserves can be invested in, and demands monthly attestations from outside accountants. Europe's MiCA rules do something similar. We wrote a separate piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">what those rules change</a>.</p>

<h2>How big is this, really?</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>~$306B</b><span>stablecoins in circulation in October 2026, after a spring record near $321B</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~60%</b><span>of that supply is Tether's USDT</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~$390B</b><span>in genuine stablecoin payments in 2025, per McKinsey and Artemis</span></div>
</div>
<p>Those numbers matter less than the direction. Stablecoins started as a tool for crypto traders who needed somewhere to park money between trades. In the last two years they quietly became a payments rail. Businesses paying overseas suppliers moved the most money, but freelancers, exporters and families are close behind.</p>

<h2>Is it crypto? Isn't crypto risky?</h2>
<p>Stablecoins live on the same blockchains as Bitcoin, which is why they get lumped together. But they behave very differently. Bitcoin's price swings because people are betting on it. A good stablecoin's price doesn't swing because nobody is betting on it; it's meant to be boring.</p>
<p>The real risks are different ones:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Issuer risk.</b> If the company behind the coin mismanages its reserves, the dollar promise weakens. This is why regulated, audited issuers matter.</li>
  <li><b>Access risk.</b> Getting from stablecoin back into rupees, pesos or shillings still runs through licensed exchanges and banks. That last step is where most of the friction, and most of the fees, still live.</li>
  <li><b>User error.</b> Send a token to the wrong address and there's no customer helpline to reverse it. Good apps hide the address entirely.</li>
</ul>

<h2>So why should a normal family care?</h2>
<p>Because the most expensive part of sending money abroad has never been the money. It's the pipes. A typical international transfer still hops through several banks, each taking a cut and a day. Globally, sending money home costs an average of about 6.36% of the amount sent, according to the World Bank's latest data for the third quarter of 2025. On a $200 transfer that's nearly thirteen dollars, every single month.</p>
<p>Stablecoins don't magically remove every cost. But they replace the slowest, most expensive middle part of the journey with something that settles in seconds for a fraction of a cent. When that saving is passed on, it shows up as a better exchange rate, a bill that's paid on time, or simply money that arrives when your mother needs it rather than three days later.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The best stablecoin experience is one where you never have to hear the word "stablecoin."</blockquote>

<h2>What careful beginners tend to do</h2>
<ol>
  <li>Many stay with large coins from regulated issuers. USDC and USDT are the two most widely used; we compare them <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">here</a>.</li>
  <li>They use licensed services that convert into local currency, rather than juggling exchanges themselves.</li>
  <li>They treat "yield" offers on money meant for spending with suspicion. Boring is the point.</li>
  <li>They check the rate actually received, not only the fee shown. A "zero fee" transfer at a bad exchange rate isn't free.</li>
</ol>
<p>That's the guide I wish I had given my aunt. She would have liked the cloakroom ticket.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-is-a-stablecoin.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Market Report 2026: $306B Supply, Flat Year, Record Usage</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>Stablecoin market data for 2026: total supply, USDT and USDC shares, supply by chain, real payment volumes and the bank forecasts of $2 trillion and beyond.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-market-report-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Judged by its headline number alone, 2026 was a dull year for stablecoins. Total supply opened the year at roughly $308 billion, touched a record of about $321 billion in April and May and slipped back to around $306 billion by mid-October, according to DefiLlama. Look underneath that flat line, though, and almost every measure of real use went up. This report pulls the main numbers into one place and explains which ones actually matter.</p>

<h2>The float: from $27 billion to $300 billion in five years</h2>
<p>The long view is still remarkable. Year-end figures from DefiLlama, compiled by <a href="https://transak.com/blog/stablecoin-market-cap-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transak</a>, show the market growing roughly elevenfold since 2020, with two years of retreat in the middle.</p>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Period</th><th>Total supply</th><th>Change</th><th>What drove it</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>End 2020</td><td>~$27B</td><td>Baseline</td><td>Early DeFi and exchange use</td></tr>
<tr><td>End 2021</td><td>~$163B</td><td>+503%</td><td>Crypto bull market</td></tr>
<tr><td>End 2022</td><td>~$138B</td><td>-16%</td><td>Terra collapse</td></tr>
<tr><td>End 2023</td><td>~$130B</td><td>-5%</td><td>High rates pulled cash to T-bills</td></tr>
<tr><td>End 2024</td><td>~$206B</td><td>+58%</td><td>Market recovery</td></tr>
<tr><td>End 2025</td><td>~$308B</td><td>+50%</td><td>GENIUS Act passed, payments growth</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct 2026</td><td>~$306B</td><td>about -1% YTD</td><td>Weaker trading and collateral demand</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The 2026 pattern deserves a closer look. Supply peaked near $321 billion in May, then June brought the steepest monthly decline since the Terra crash of 2022. Analysts tracking the quarter put the drop down to cooling crypto trading and lower demand for collateral on exchanges, not to any loss of faith in stablecoins as payment instruments. That distinction matters: the float shrank, but the activity riding on it did not.</p>
<p>A methodology note before going further. Trackers disagree at the margin because they include or exclude different tokens. On 14 October 2026, for instance, rwa.xyz listed total stablecoin value at about $293 billion, several billion below other counts. Treat any single figure as a range of a few percent.</p>

<h2>Who issues it: two companies, about 84 percent</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>~$306B</b><span>total stablecoin supply, October 2026 (DefiLlama)</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~84%</b><span>combined share of USDT and USDC</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$401B+</b><span>identified stablecoin payments, January to August 2026</span></div>
</div>
<p>Concentration is the defining feature of this market. Tether's USDT stood at about $184 billion in early October 2026, roughly 60% of total supply. Circle's USDC ended June at $73.3 billion. Together they hold around 84% of everything in circulation, and the top five issuers held about 89% in the first quarter.</p>
<p>Below them sits a crowded tail: Sky's USDS and legacy DAI, World Liberty Financial's USD1, Ethena's USDe, Paxos's USDG, PayPal's PYUSD and Ripple's RLUSD, each between roughly half a percent and three percent of the market as of August 2026. Some of that tail is fragile. Ethena's USDe shrank from about $14.7 billion before the October 2025 liquidation cascade to about $6.3 billion two months later. We compare the two leaders in detail in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>Where it lives: supply by chain</h2>
<p>DefiLlama data cited on 25 September 2026 ranked the main networks this way: Ethereum about $145.9 billion, Tron about $94.1 billion, Solana a record $16.6 billion, BNB Chain about $13.3 billion and Base about $5.1 billion. Ethereum's share has fallen from above 90% in 2020 to roughly half today, though its dollar balance has grown enormously. Tron is effectively a USDT network, used heavily for retail and cross-border transfers where low fees matter more than anything else.</p>
<p>The chain map is starting to move again because of purpose-built payment networks such as Stripe's Tempo and Circle's Arc, both live in 2026. We compare fees and settlement times in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments/">our guide to the best blockchains for stablecoin payments</a>.</p>

<h2>How much it moves: three numbers, three meanings</h2>
<p>Volume is where stablecoin statistics get abused. There are at least three honest ways to measure it, and they differ by orders of magnitude.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Raw onchain transfers.</b> <a href="https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/state-of-crypto-2025-the-latest-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a16z crypto</a> counted about $46 trillion in stablecoin transactions over the year to late 2025. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, transfers topped $28 trillion, but around three quarters of that was bot activity.</li>
  <li><b>Adjusted volume.</b> Stripping out bots and repeated internal hops, a16z put the figure nearer $9 trillion, up 87% on the year before.</li>
  <li><b>Actual payments.</b> A joint analysis by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/stablecoins-find-their-niche" target="_blank" rel="noopener">McKinsey and Artemis</a> found about $390 billion of genuine payments in 2025, around 0.02% of global payment flows. Business-to-business transfers made up $226 billion of it.</li>
</ul>
<p>Our read: the third number is the one that tells you whether stablecoins are becoming money people spend, and it is growing quickly. Identified payments reached at least $401 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 42% on the same period of 2025. Standard Chartered also noted in March 2026 that the average stablecoin now changes hands about six times a month, double the pace of two years earlier. More use from a flat float is exactly what you would expect if the asset is shifting from parking spot to payment rail. The details are in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">our 2026 payments trends piece</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The float went sideways in 2026. The payments built on top of it did not.</blockquote>

<h2>Forecasts: what the banks expect, and what that implies</h2>
<p>The big institutional forecasts cluster around $2 trillion within a few years.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee</b> (April 2025): about $2 trillion by 2028, up from roughly $240 billion at the time, according to <a href="https://beincrypto.com/stablecoin-market-2-trillion-2028/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BeInCrypto's summary</a>.</li>
  <li><b>Standard Chartered</b>: $2 trillion by 2028, reaffirmed in March 2026, with about $1 trillion of extra demand for US Treasury bills along the way, as reported by <a href="https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/395867/unstable-velocity-standard-chartered-says-stablecoin-usage-rising-faster-than-expected-as-new-use-cases-emerge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</li>
  <li><b>Citi</b>: a revised base case of $1.9 trillion by 2030 and a bull case of $4 trillion, published in September 2025.</li>
</ul>
<p>Some simple arithmetic puts these in perspective. Getting from about $306 billion in October 2026 to $2 trillion by the end of 2028 would require supply to multiply roughly 6.5 times in just over two years, or about 130% a year. This year's growth so far is close to zero. The forecasts may still prove right, since a single large shift, such as banks or card networks moving settlement balances onchain, could add hundreds of billions quickly. But they are bets on a step change, not extrapolations of the current trend.</p>

<h2>What to watch into 2027</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>GENIUS Act implementation.</b> The US law takes effect no later than 18 January 2027. Final rules will decide how much room issuers and their partners have to share reserve income. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our explainer on GENIUS and MiCA</a>.</li>
  <li><b>Open USD.</b> The OUSD token launched on 30 September 2026 backed by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Shopify and Coinbase. Its early volume will show whether distribution partners can dent the USDT and USDC duopoly.</li>
  <li><b>Bank tokens.</b> A consortium of 21 banks plans a dollar stablecoin for the first half of 2027.</li>
  <li><b>USDC versus USDT.</b> USDC drives most of the rise in velocity; USDT dominates low-velocity savings use in emerging markets. Which one grows faster tells you which use case is winning.</li>
</ol>
<p class="note">Figures are as of the dates stated and come from the linked sources. Different trackers count supply differently, so small discrepancies between sources are normal.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-market-report-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Cross-Border Bill Payments Explained: Why Paying the Biller Beats Sending Cash</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-cross-border-bill-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-cross-border-bill-payments/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>What global cross-border bill payments are, why paying billers directly beats sending cash, and how networks in India, the Philippines, Mexico and Africa work.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-cross-border-bill-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A Filipino seafarer on a container ship in the Strait of Malacca gets a few hours of satellite connection a week. In that window he has to make sure the family's Meralco electricity bill, his son's tuition and the monthly housing loan in Batangas all get paid. For years the answer was to send money home and trust that someone would get to each counter before the due date. A growing set of networks now lets him pay those companies directly, and that small change says a lot about where cross-border payments are heading.</p>

<h2>What a cross-border bill payment actually is</h2>
<p>A cross-border bill payment starts in one country and lands in a specific biller's account in another, tagged with the reference the biller needs: a consumer number, a policy number, a student ID. The sender pays in their own currency. The utility, school or insurer receives local currency and marks the bill as settled. Nobody in between has to collect, convert or carry anything.</p>
<p>That sounds like a small tweak to a remittance. The scale says otherwise. The <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024--remittance-flows-to-low--and-middle-income-countries-ar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank</a> estimates $685 billion flowed to low- and middle-income countries in 2024, with India at about $129 billion, Mexico at $68 billion and the Philippines at $40 billion. IFAD estimates that around 75% of remittance money goes to immediate needs such as food, health, education and housing. A large share of that ends up, sooner or later, at a utility or a school's accounts office.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$685B</b><span>remittances to low and middle income countries, 2024</span></div><div class="stat"><b>75%</b><span>of remittance flows meet immediate needs (IFAD)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>8.78%</b><span>average cost to send $200 to Sub-Saharan Africa</span></div></div>

<h2>Why paying the biller beats sending cash</h2>
<p>Three things go wrong when money travels as a cash transfer first and becomes a bill payment later.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Leakage.</b> Money sent for school fees competes with every other need in the receiving household. Nobody has to be dishonest for it to be spent elsewhere first.</li>
<li><b>Double friction.</b> The transfer carries its own fee and exchange margin, and the recipient may pay again to settle the bill at an agent. The World Bank's latest global survey put the average cost of sending $200 at 6.36% in the third quarter of 2025, and cash-based services cost more than that.</li>
<li><b>Timing.</b> A transfer that arrives on day one and gets paid on day nine misses due dates and triggers late fees. A direct payment can be scheduled against the due date itself.</li>
</ul>
<p>There is a quieter benefit too. A paid bill leaves a record in the sender's name, which is useful when a migrant needs to show that they support a parent or child back home.</p>

<h2>How biller networks and aggregators work</h2>
<p>No overseas provider wants to integrate with thousands of utilities one by one. Instead they plug into a domestic hub, and three layers do the work:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>The domestic biller network.</b> A national switch or aggregator that already connects billers, validates customer numbers and fetches the amount due.</li>
<li><b>The cross-border gateway.</b> A licensed bank or exchange house in the destination country that accepts foreign funds, runs compliance checks, converts the currency and pushes the payment into the domestic network.</li>
<li><b>The sending front end.</b> The bank, app or exchange house the customer uses abroad, which collects the money and passes on the biller details.</li>
</ol>
<p>Mastercard's 2021 purchase of <a href="https://investor.mastercard.com/investor-news/investor-news-details/2021/Mastercard-Expands-Support-of-Latin-America-Real-Time-Payments-with-Acquisition-of-Arcus/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arcus in Mexico</a> shows why the hub matters. Arcus had direct links to many of Mexico's largest billers and retailers and approval to process through SPEI, the central bank's real-time system. Buying the hub bought the reach.</p>

<h2>India: a national network opens to the diaspora</h2>
<p>India has gone furthest in building this into public infrastructure. Bharat Connect connects more than 22,400 billers across about 30 categories and handled more than 260 million transactions in October 2025, according to its own overview. The RBI cleared it for inbound cross-border bill payments in 2022, and a 2024 circular widened the scope to personal non-trade bills. Gulf exchange houses were the first partners, and a Canadian fintech went live in 2025. The design choice that matters is that foreign providers join one network rather than signing thousands of bilateral deals. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect explainer</a> goes into the detail.</p>

<h2>The Philippines, Mexico and Africa</h2>
<p>The Philippines received a record $35.6 billion in cash remittances in 2025, according to central bank figures reported by The Philippine Star. Philippine banks with branches abroad have long offered overseas bills payment, letting customers in the US, Hong Kong and Japan pay Meralco, PLDT, Globe, water utilities, SSS and Pag-IBIG contributions, insurers and schools. The model works, but much of it still runs through branch counters and phone hotlines rather than open interfaces.</p>
<p>Mexico shows the pressure on the old cash model. <a href="https://www.fxcintel.com/research/analysis/us-mexico-remittances-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXC Intelligence</a>, citing Banxico, says remittances fell 5% in 2025 to roughly $62 billion, the steepest drop since 2009, after a record $64.7 billion in 2024. When volumes shrink, providers compete harder on services such as direct bill pay. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/">US-Mexico corridor</a> analysis looks at what is driving the decline.</p>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is where the gap is widest. It remains the most expensive region to send money to, at 8.78% for $200 in the first quarter of 2025 according to the <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/rpw_main_report_and_annex_q125_1_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank</a>, even though mobile money, at 3.63%, is the cheapest way to fund a transfer worldwide. Diaspora apps have let Kenyans abroad pay electricity, water and school fees into mobile money systems since at least 2022, but coverage across the continent is patchy and split country by country.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A remittance tells a family that money is coming. A bill payment tells them the lights will stay on.</blockquote>

<h2>Where stablecoin settlement fits</h2>
<p>Bill payments still need a local biller network at the destination. What stablecoins can change is the middle leg: how the sending provider funds the receiving gateway. Instead of pre-funding bank accounts in dozens of currencies or waiting on correspondent banks, a provider can settle in a dollar stablecoin at any hour and convert to local currency at the edge. Card networks are already testing this at scale. Visa said in April 2026 that its stablecoin settlement had reached a $7 billion annualised run rate across nine blockchains, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/399405/visa-stablecoin-settlement-hits-7-billion-run-rate-pilot-expands-nine-blockchains" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. In a bill payment the customer would never see a token. They would just see the bill marked paid sooner. We track the wider shift in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">stablecoin payment trends for 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>What still needs fixing</h2>
<p>The G20's roadmap wants 75% of cross-border payments to arrive within an hour by 2027. An FXC Intelligence analysis of 2025 data put the share at about 35%. Biller coverage is uneven, protections when a bill payment fails differ from country to country, and very few national bill networks talk to each other. We think the next real gain will come from linking bill networks the way instant payment systems are now being linked, so a sender in Dubai, London or Houston sees the same bill a resident sees. That is part of the agenda behind <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20/">the G20's cross-border payment targets</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-cross-border-bill-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Startup Funding 2026: What VCs Are Backing and How Founders Raise</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>Stablecoin startup funding in 2026: crypto VC totals from Galaxy and CryptoRank, why payments lead, notable rounds and how founders raise at each stage.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A founder pitching a stablecoin payments company in autumn 2026 walks into an odd market. There are fewer cheques overall, fewer active funds, and yet more of the money that is moving is aimed squarely at what she is building.</p>

<h2>The numbers, read carefully</h2>
<p>Start with the long view. <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/crypto-blockchain-venture-capital-q4-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Galaxy Research</a> counted about $20 billion of venture investment into crypto and blockchain companies in 2025 across 1,660 deals, the biggest annual total since 2022. The fourth quarter alone brought $8.5 billion, though eleven deals above $100 million made up 85% of it, led by a $3 billion round for Revolut. Later-stage companies took 57% of the year's capital, the highest share Galaxy has recorded.</p>
<p>2026 has been choppier. Galaxy put second-quarter crypto venture funding at $5.68 billion across 384 deals, up 31% from the first quarter, with roughly 77% going to late-stage companies and only about 7% to seed and pre-seed. Only five new crypto funds closed that quarter, raising about $3.9 billion, the weakest fund formation since late 2019.</p>
<p>The third quarter looked thinner still. <a href="https://cryptorank.io/insights/reports/crypto-fundraising-recap-q3-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CryptoRank's Q3 2026 recap</a> found 127 venture rounds with $2.62 billion of disclosed capital, down about 42% from the prior quarter. Galaxy and CryptoRank count differently, so their figures should not be stacked side by side, but the direction is consistent: fewer deals, bigger average cheques, and a median round that rose to $8 million.</p>
<p>Valuations tell a similar story of selectivity. Galaxy put the median deal size in the fourth quarter of 2025 at $4 million, matching prior highs, and the median pre-money valuation at $70 million, though it cautioned that valuation data covered only about a tenth of deals and leaned toward later-stage companies. In other words, the headline medians say more about the companies that could command a price than about a typical seed round. Founders should read them as a ceiling, not a benchmark.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$20B</b><span>crypto VC invested in 2025 (Galaxy)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$791M</b><span>raised by payments startups in Q3 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>40</b><span>seed and pre-seed rounds in Q3 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>Payments took the top spot</h2>
<p>Inside that shrinking pie, payments led. CryptoRank's data showed payments companies raising $791 million across 24 rounds in the third quarter, more rounds and more disclosed capital than any other category. The larger payments deals included Augustus with a $180 million Series B led by Tiger Global, Felix Pago with an $87 million Series C led by Andreessen Horowitz, Fasset at $68 million, Yellow Card at $40 million, and Series A rounds of $38 million for Velocity, $37 million for HIFI and $35 million for Latitude.</p>
<p>Earlier in the year, card issuer Rain raised a $250 million Series C at a $1.95 billion valuation, telling <a href="https://news.crunchbase.com/fintech-ecommerce/rain-series-c-funding-valuation-crypto-stablecoin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crunchbase News</a> it was processing more than $3 billion in annualized transactions. The momentum is not new. DL News, using DefiLlama data, reported that stablecoin-focused startups raised $537 million in 2025 by September, against $84 million in all of 2024.</p>
<p>Acquisitions are the other half of the story. Stripe paid $1.1 billion for Bridge in early 2025, and Mastercard agreed in March 2026 to buy BVNK for up to $1.8 billion. Those sales matter to early investors because they prove there are buyers for licensed payment infrastructure, which is not true of every crypto niche.</p>

<h2>Why payments-led stablecoin companies attract capital</h2>
<p>Three reasons come up repeatedly in conversations with investors. First, revenue is legible. A business that moves supplier payments or payroll earns a fee per transaction, and that looks like fintech, a sector generalist funds understand. Second, regulation has given larger investors cover. Galaxy expects the GENIUS Act to strengthen the US share of deals, and EU firms now have MiCA as a reference point. Third, the demand is visible in the data: McKinsey estimates business-to-business stablecoin payments grew more than 700% in 2025. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">stablecoin payments trends for 2026</a> piece covers that growth.</p>
<p>The wider fintech market helps too. Crunchbase counted $51.9 billion of global venture funding into fintech in 2025, up about 27% on 2024, even as deal counts fell. That pattern of fewer, larger rounds now applies to stablecoin startups as well.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Investors are no longer paying for a token or a chain. They are paying for corridors that already carry real money.</blockquote>

<h2>What each stage expects</h2>
<p>There is no rulebook, but founders and investors describe fairly consistent expectations for payments companies.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Stage</th><th>What investors usually want to see</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Pre-seed</td><td>A founding team with payments or compliance experience, a clear first corridor, and a credible plan for licences or a licensed partner.</td></tr>
<tr><td>Seed</td><td>Live transactions, early repeat customers, a working banking or off-ramp partner, and unit economics per transfer.</td></tr>
<tr><td>Series A</td><td>Growing monthly volume with retention, a take rate that holds as volume grows, and a licensing plan for the next markets.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Seed and pre-seed have become harder. CryptoRank counted 40 seed and pre-seed rounds worth $255 million in the third quarter, down from 75 rounds and $369 million a year earlier. Outside crypto, <a href="https://carta.com/data/state-of-pre-seed-q2-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carta's Q2 2026 pre-seed data</a> shows US instruments averaging a record $276,000, up 27% on the year, with AI companies taking about half of all pre-seed dollars. Payments founders are competing for the same angels and funds.</p>

<h2>How founders are actually raising</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>SAFEs at the earliest stage.</b> Pre-seed money in the US mostly arrives through SAFEs and convertible notes, which Carta tracks at more than 11,500 instruments in the quarter.</li>
<li><b>Strategic investors.</b> Corporate venture arms are active. Coinbase Ventures joined 13 rounds in the third quarter, more than any other fund in CryptoRank's data, though it led none.</li>
<li><b>Licence first, volume second.</b> Many teams spend early capital on registrations and banking partners before marketing, because that is what later investors and acquirers price.</li>
<li><b>One corridor, done well.</b> A narrow focus, such as Gulf-to-South Asia payouts or Latin American contractor payroll, is easier to diligence than a promise of global coverage. Our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-investment-opportunity-2026/">the stablecoin investment opportunity</a> explains why corridor depth matters.</li>
</ul>

<h2>What makes investors walk away</h2>
<p>The concerns are predictable. Volume that comes from trading or internal transfers rather than commerce. Dependence on a single banking partner that could pull out. A business model that only works if one token keeps its current share. And unclear licensing, especially for companies that touch customer funds across borders. Fund concentration adds pressure: CryptoRank counted 333 active institutions in the third quarter, down from 767 a year earlier, so each investor can afford to be choosier.</p>
<p>For founders, the practical read is that the window is open but narrow. Capital exists for payments companies with real flows, licences in progress and a clear first market. Teams still at the idea stage face a smaller pool and longer processes. For background on the rules shaping these companies, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">the GENIUS Act and MiCA</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Funding figures come from different trackers with different methods and are not directly comparable across sources. Nothing here is investment advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-startups-funding-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>GENIUS Act Rules 2026: OCC, Fed, FDIC and Treasury Timeline</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Where GENIUS Act implementation stands in October 2026: OCC, Fed, FDIC, NCUA and Treasury proposals, the $10B state cap, foreign issuers and 2027 deadline.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/genius-act-rules-implementation.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Anyone in Washington whose job is to read stablecoin rules has had a heavy autumn. The OCC's main proposal runs to 376 pages. The Federal Reserve added two companion proposals on 29 September 2026. Treasury published an interim final rule the next day, and its proposal on what counts as "offering" a stablecoin in the United States closes for comments on 19 October. Fourteen months after President Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the law is being turned into actual rulebooks, and it is running late.</p>

<p>This piece maps where each agency stands as of mid-October 2026, what the draft rules actually require, and which dates matter between now and July 2028. For the statute itself and how it compares with Europe, see our earlier explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA stablecoin rules</a>.</p>

<h2>The statute in five numbers</h2>

<p>The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act became Public Law 119-27 on 18 July 2025, after passing the Senate 68-30 on 17 June and the House 308-122 on 17 July, according to the <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R49351.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congressional Research Service</a>. Five numbers do most of the work:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>1:1 reserves.</b> Every payment stablecoin must be backed at least dollar for dollar by cash, insured deposits, Treasury bills, Treasury-backed repos, government money market funds and similar assets.</li>
<li><b>93 days.</b> Treasury securities in the reserve must mature in 93 days or less, as <a href="https://www.fenwick.com/insights/publications/congress-enacts-comprehensive-stablecoin-legislation-key-provisions-and-implications-of-the-genius-act" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenwick's summary of the Act</a> sets out.</li>
<li><b>$10 billion.</b> Non-bank issuers below this outstanding amount can choose a certified state regime. Above it, they move under federal supervision.</li>
<li><b>$50 billion.</b> Issuers above this level must publish annual audited financial statements.</li>
<li><b>18 months.</b> The Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment (18 January 2027) or 120 days after regulators finish their rules.</li>
</ul>

<p>The law also told regulators to write their rules within a year. That deadline was 18 July 2026, and seven federal agencies missed it, as <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/treasury-first-genius-act-rule-073833593.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">coverage of Treasury's first binding rule</a> noted. Missing it has no legal penalty. What it changes is the order of events: the effective date is now almost certainly the fixed 18 January 2027 backstop, not a date set by finished rules.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>7</b><span>federal agencies missed the July 2026 rule deadline</span></div><div class="stat"><b>18 Jan 2027</b><span>statutory effective date backstop</span></div><div class="stat"><b>18 Jul 2028</b><span>deadline for platforms to drop non-permitted coins</span></div></div>

<h2>Who is writing which rule</h2>

<p>GENIUS spreads the work across the agencies that already supervise banks, credit unions and money flows. The table below is the scorecard as of 15 October 2026, drawn from <a href="https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/04/genius-act-implementation-key-proposals-and-what-comes-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Morgan Lewis's tracker</a>, <a href="https://www.arnoldporter.com/en/perspectives/advisories/2026/10/implementing-the-genius-act-the-federal-reserve-proposes-a-comprehensive-rulemaking" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arnold &amp; Porter's review of the Fed proposals</a> and the Federal Register.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Agency</th><th>Covers</th><th>Key proposal</th><th>Comments closed</th><th>Status</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Treasury</td><td>Whole framework</td><td>ANPRM, 19 Sep 2025</td><td>4 Nov 2025</td><td>Feeds later rules</td></tr>
<tr><td>FDIC</td><td>Subsidiaries of FDIC-supervised banks</td><td>Licensing, 19 Dec 2025; prudential, 10 Apr 2026</td><td>17 Feb / 9 Jun 2026</td><td>Proposed</td></tr>
<tr><td>NCUA</td><td>Credit union service organisations</td><td>Licensing, 12 Feb 2026</td><td>13 Apr 2026</td><td>Proposed</td></tr>
<tr><td>OCC</td><td>National bank subsidiaries, non-banks, foreign bank branches, large state issuers</td><td>Comprehensive rule, 2 Mar 2026</td><td>1 May 2026</td><td>Final targeted Nov 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Treasury</td><td>"Substantially similar" state test</td><td>Principles, 3 Apr 2026</td><td>2 Jun 2026</td><td>Proposed</td></tr>
<tr><td>FinCEN / OFAC</td><td>AML and sanctions programmes</td><td>Joint proposal, 10 Apr 2026</td><td>9 Jun 2026</td><td>Proposed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Treasury</td><td>What counts as US issuance, offer and sale</td><td>Proposal, 18 Aug 2026</td><td>19 Oct 2026</td><td>Open</td></tr>
<tr><td>Federal Reserve</td><td>State member bank subsidiaries, large uninsured state issuers</td><td>Two proposals, 29 Sep 2026</td><td>30 Nov 2026</td><td>Open</td></tr>
<tr><td>Treasury (SCRC)</td><td>State certification procedure</td><td>Interim final rule, 30 Sep 2026</td><td>30 Nov 2026</td><td>In force</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The pattern is clear. The OCC carries the heaviest load because it supervises every non-bank federal issuer, and it is the only agency that has publicly committed to a final rule date. The Fed was last to publish, which matters because its proposals cover large state-chartered issuers once they cross $10 billion.</p>

<h2>What the OCC wants: reserves, redemption and capital</h2>

<p>The <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/03/02/2026-04089/implementing-the-guiding-and-establishing-national-innovation-for-us-stablecoins-act-for-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OCC's proposal</a> was approved on 25 February 2026 and published on 2 March. It is the template others are following, and its detail is where the business models get decided.</p>

<p>On reserves, the OCC offered two options. Under Option A, a safe harbour checked every business day, an issuer would keep at least 10% of reserves in demand deposits or money at a Federal Reserve Bank, at least 30% in that form or in assets that come due within five business days, no more than 40% at any one bank, and a weighted average maturity of 20 days or less. Option B would make those benchmarks mandatory. Issuers with at least $25 billion outstanding would also hold at least 0.5% of reserves, capped at $500 million, as insured deposits, according to <a href="https://www.gibsondunn.com/occ-proposes-comprehensive-stablecoin-regulatory-framework-to-implement-the-genius-act/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gibson Dunn's analysis</a>.</p>

<p>Redemption must generally happen within two business days. If requests exceed 10% of outstanding coins within 24 hours, the issuer can stretch that to seven calendar days, provided it tells the OCC within a day. Capital starts at the greater of $5 million or whatever the approval order says, and the OCC itself signals that a viable business probably needs $6.05 million to $25 million.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The yield ban is where the real fight sits, because it decides who gets paid for the float.</blockquote>

<p>The OCC also writes the statutory ban on paying "any form of interest or yield" for simply holding a stablecoin into rule text, with a rebuttable presumption that affiliate or third-party reward schemes that mimic interest are caught too. Exchanges that share reserve income with users through partner programmes are the obvious target. For how that income is earned in the first place, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a>.</p>

<h2>The Fed's late entry and its capital formula</h2>

<p>The Fed's two proposals, published in the <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/29/2026-19860/implementing-the-federal-reserve-boards-responsibilities-under-the-genius-act" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Register on 29 September 2026</a> under Docket R-1899, cover subsidiaries of insured state member banks and uninsured state-chartered institutions with $10 billion or more outstanding. They mirror the OCC on 1:1 segregated reserves and two-day redemption, and add a tiered operational-risk capital charge that is easy to model.</p>

<h3>Worked example: capital for a $60 billion issuer</h3>

<p>Take a hypothetical Fed-supervised issuer with $60 billion in circulation and average non-reserve revenue (fees, services) of $200 million a year over three years. Under the proposed formula:</p>

<ul>
<li>2.0% on the first $20 billion: $400 million</li>
<li>1.5% on the next $30 billion: $450 million</li>
<li>1.0% on the remaining $10 billion: $100 million</li>
<li>25% of $200 million non-reserve revenue: $50 million</li>
</ul>

<p>That totals about <b>$1.0 billion</b> of operational-risk capital, roughly 1.7% of outstanding coins, before any separate 2% charge on uninsured deposit exposure in the reserve. If the same issuer earned 4% on its $60 billion reserve, gross income would be around $2.4 billion a year, so the capital ask is meaningful but not crippling. A smaller issuer at $5 billion would face about $100 million plus its revenue add-on, which is a far larger bite relative to income. This is a stylised illustration of a proposal, not a forecast; issuers should take advice on the final rule.</p>

<p>The Fed also proposes a 12-month exam cycle, weekly confidential reports and quarterly financial reports. Where a bank owns the issuer, the bank would deduct the subsidiary's minimum capital from its own CET1, dollar for dollar. That deduction may quietly steer large banks toward tokenised deposits instead of a separate stablecoin subsidiary.</p>

<h2>State versus federal: the $10 billion line</h2>

<p>The state route is where the politics live. Treasury's 3 April principles say state regimes can differ in form and procedure but must be "substantially similar" in substance. Its 30 September interim final rule then set up the procedure for the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee, chaired by Treasury with the heads of the Fed and FDIC, to certify states. States must win initial certification by 18 January 2028 and recertify every year, though the committee cannot accept filings until the Office of Management and Budget clears the paperwork.</p>

<p>Once a state-licensed issuer crosses $10 billion, the OCC's draft gives it five business days to notify, 270 days to complete a capital analysis and 360 days to move to federal oversight, win a waiver or stop new issuance. In practice the state lane is for smaller and regional issuers. Circle, with USDC at roughly $73 billion as of October 2026, is already on the federal track: it received conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank on 12 December 2025 alongside Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos, and <a href="https://theblock.co/post/407876/stablecoin-firm-circle-wins-final-occ-approval-to-open-national-trust-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final approval in July 2026</a>. Notably, USDC issuance itself is slated to sit in a New York limited-purpose trust company, with reserve management at the national bank a later step.</p>

<h2>Foreign issuers: the door is drawn but not built</h2>

<p>For readers outside the US, the most consequential text is Treasury's 18 August proposal on issuance, offer and sale. It treats a stablecoin as issued in the US if either the issuer or the recipient is located there, and it counts answering an unsolicited US inquiry as an offer. That removes the reverse-solicitation comfort that many offshore platforms rely on in other US regimes, as <a href="https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/treasury-proposes-genius-act-gatekeeping-rules-with-a-path-for-foreign-issuers-102nri4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freshfields points out</a>.</p>

<p>A foreign payment stablecoin issuer can reach US users through a platform only if Treasury first finds its home regime comparable, and the issuer registers with the OCC, accepts US enforcement and holds enough reserves at a US institution to cover US redemptions. Treasury has not yet proposed how comparability will be judged. So in January 2027 there may be a legal door for offshore issuers with no process to walk through it. Platforms can lean on an issuer's representation that it can comply with lawful freeze orders, if they do reasonable diligence.</p>

<p>This matters most for USDT, at about $184 billion the largest stablecoin. Tether is not organised under US law, so the state route is closed to it. Its path to US platforms after July 2028 runs either through comparability for its home jurisdiction or through a US-law vehicle. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC comparison</a> covers the reserve differences that make that harder or easier.</p>

<h2>Penalties and AML: the teeth</h2>

<p>The Act carries criminal penalties of up to $1 million per violation and five years' imprisonment for knowing participation in unlawful issuance, civil penalties of up to $100,000 per day, and fines of up to $500,000 for marketing something as a payment stablecoin that was not issued under the Act. Issuers must be able to block, freeze and reject transfers when lawfully ordered, and certify their AML and sanctions programmes within 180 days of approval and annually after that, per the CRS. A joint customer identification rule from FinCEN, the OCC, Fed, FDIC and NCUA appeared on 22 June 2026. One open question the statute leaves hanging: whether issuer AML duties stop at the first sale or follow coins through secondary on-chain transfers. The answer will shape how <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/">AML and sanctions compliance</a> works for every wallet that touches a US-regulated coin.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>19 October 2026:</b> comments close on Treasury's issuance, offer and sale proposal. Watch whether Treasury moves toward a Regulation S-style conduct test, which it floated.</li>
<li><b>November 2026:</b> the OCC's target for its final rule. It is a target, not a promise, but it would be the first complete federal rulebook.</li>
<li><b>30 November 2026:</b> comments close on the Fed proposals and the certification interim final rule.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027:</b> the Act takes effect. The OCC expects to process issuer applications from 2027, and existing applicants may get up to 12 months of regulatory forbearance.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2028:</b> deadline for initial state certifications.</li>
<li><b>18 July 2028:</b> US platforms may generally offer only coins from permitted or qualifying foreign issuers.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our read: the federal track is now the default for anything large, and the real competitive variable is how strictly the yield ban is enforced against platform rewards. The market structure bill still in Congress will decide the rest; see our piece on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-crypto-market-structure-law/">US crypto market structure law</a>. Nothing here is legal advice, and firms affected by these proposals should work with qualified US counsel.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/genius-act-rules-implementation.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Ripple Payments Explained 2026: How It Works vs SWIFT</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-payments-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-payments-explained/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Networks</category><description>How Ripple Payments works in 2026: XRP vs RLUSD settlement, licences, acquisitions, a step-by-step payment flow and how it compares with SWIFT banking.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-payments-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A finance manager at a textile exporter in Tiruppur waits on a $48,000 payment from a buyer in Dubai. The buyer's bank sends it on a Thursday afternoon. It passes through a correspondent in New York, sits over a US weekend, and lands on Monday with a lifting fee deducted that nobody quoted in advance. Ripple has spent more than a decade arguing that this journey should take minutes rather than days. In 2026, with a national trust bank approval, a stablecoin of its own and several billion dollars of acquisitions behind it, the company is closer to testing that claim at scale than it has ever been.</p>

<h2>What is Ripple Payments in 2026?</h2>
<p>Ripple Payments is Ripple's cross-border payments service for banks, payment companies and businesses. It combines what used to be RippleNet messaging and On-Demand Liquidity, letting customers send value using XRP, the RLUSD stablecoin or fiat through a network of payout partners. As of December 2025, Ripple said the network had processed more than $95 billion in total volume.</p>
<p>The product has changed shape. Earlier, RippleNet was mainly a messaging network that banks used alongside traditional nostro accounts, while On-Demand Liquidity used XRP to avoid pre-funding. Today Ripple sells an end-to-end service: it can collect funds, convert them, move them across a blockchain and pay out locally, holding the licences itself. In a May 2025 release on its UAE customers, Ripple described <a href="https://ripple.com/ripple-press/zand-bank-and-mamo-newest-ripple-payments-customers-in-uae/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 60 licences and registrations and over 90 payout markets</a>, covering more than 90% of daily FX markets. For the broader context of the company's year, see our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/">Ripple in 2026</a>.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$95B+</b><span>Ripple Payments total volume to Dec 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>60+</b><span>licences and registrations (2025)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>90+</b><span>payout markets (2025)</span></div></div>
<p>Note what the volume figure is: cumulative, self-reported and across all years. It is not an annual number, and Ripple does not break it down by corridor or settlement asset.</p>

<h2>How does a Ripple payment work, step by step?</h2>
<p>In a typical Ripple Payments transfer in 2026, the sending institution submits a payment, Ripple or a partner converts the local currency into a digital asset such as XRP or RLUSD, the asset moves across a blockchain in seconds, and a payout partner converts it into the destination currency and credits the recipient. The sending institution never needs a pre-funded account abroad.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Instruction.</b> A bank or payment firm, say a UAE remittance company, sends a payment request through Ripple's API with amount, currency and beneficiary details.</li>
<li><b>Quote and compliance.</b> Ripple returns an FX quote and runs screening. Because Ripple holds licences in the relevant markets, it can take on part of the compliance work.</li>
<li><b>On-ramp.</b> Dirhams are converted into a digital asset. For XRP routes this happens through exchange liquidity; for RLUSD routes, through issuance or purchase of the stablecoin.</li>
<li><b>Transfer.</b> The asset moves on the XRP Ledger or another supported chain. Settlement on the ledger takes seconds and runs around the clock.</li>
<li><b>Off-ramp and payout.</b> A partner in the destination market sells the asset for local currency and pays the beneficiary through a domestic rail such as a bank transfer or mobile wallet.</li>
</ol>
<p>The economic point of steps three to five is pre-funding. In correspondent banking, a sender must keep money parked in accounts abroad, or pay a bank that does, so that a payment can be credited on arrival. Ripple's model replaces those idle balances with assets bought and sold on demand.</p>

<h2>What is the difference between XRP and RLUSD in Ripple settlement?</h2>
<p>XRP is a floating-price digital asset used as a bridge between two currencies, so the customer is exposed to its price for the seconds the payment is in flight. RLUSD is a dollar stablecoin issued by Ripple under a New York trust charter, so there is no price movement in transit. In 2026 Ripple Payments supports both, and corridor liquidity decides which is cheaper.</p>
<p>RLUSD launched on 17 December 2024 on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, backed by dollar deposits, US government bonds and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations promised, according to <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241216911945/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ripple's launch release</a>. Its market value passed $1 billion within a year and stood at about $2.4 billion in mid-October 2026, per DefiLlama. That makes it a mid-sized stablecoin, far behind USDT and USDC, as our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/">stablecoin companies list</a> shows.</p>
<p>For banks, the stablecoin route answers the most common objection to XRP: treasury teams do not want price risk on their balance sheet, even for minutes. For XRP-based routes, the argument is depth: in corridors where XRP trades actively against both currencies, using it can avoid two stablecoin conversions. Neither choice is a statement about the asset's future value, and readers should not treat it as one.</p>

<h2>Is Ripple the same as XRP?</h2>
<p>No. Ripple is a private US company that sells payments, custody, treasury and brokerage services. XRP is a digital asset native to the XRP Ledger, an open-source blockchain that Ripple helped create but does not own. Ripple holds a large amount of XRP and releases one billion XRP from escrow each month, which links the two closely without making them the same thing.</p>
<p>The distinction has legal weight. The US Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Ripple ended on 7 August 2025, when both sides dismissed their appeals, leaving in place a final judgment with a civil penalty of $125,035,150 and an injunction against violating securities registration rules, according to the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-26369" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEC's litigation release</a>. The case concerned how Ripple sold XRP, not whether the XRP Ledger could be used for payments.</p>
<p>It also matters commercially. A bank can use Ripple Payments without ever touching XRP, by settling in RLUSD or fiat. And anyone can build on the XRP Ledger without Ripple, as several stablecoin issuers do. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stellar-payments-blockchain/">Stellar's payments blockchain</a>, which has a similar split between a foundation and an open network, is a useful parallel.</p>

<h2>What licences and acquisitions does Ripple have?</h2>
<p>By late 2025 Ripple said it held more than 60 licences and registrations, including a New York trust charter for RLUSD and a Dubai Financial Services Authority licence. It received conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank in December 2025 and a full MiCA licence in the EU in July 2026. It has spent billions buying firms in brokerage, treasury and stablecoin payments.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Milestone</th><th>Date</th><th>What it adds</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>NYDFS trust charter, RLUSD launch</td><td>Dec 2024</td><td>Regulated dollar stablecoin</td></tr>
<tr><td>DFSA licence (Dubai, DIFC)</td><td>Mar 2025</td><td>Regulated crypto payments in the UAE</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hidden Road acquisition, $1.25B</td><td>Apr 2025 (closed Oct 2025)</td><td>Prime brokerage, now Ripple Prime</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rail acquisition, $200M</td><td>Aug 2025</td><td>Stablecoin B2B payments, virtual accounts</td></tr>
<tr><td>GTreasury acquisition, $1B</td><td>Oct 2025 (closed Dec 2025)</td><td>Corporate treasury software</td></tr>
<tr><td>$500M raise at $40B valuation</td><td>Nov 2025</td><td>Capital, led by Fortress and Citadel Securities</td></tr>
<tr><td>OCC conditional approval, national trust bank</td><td>Dec 2025</td><td>Federal supervision for RLUSD</td></tr>
<tr><td>MiCA CASP licence (Luxembourg)</td><td>Jul 2026</td><td>EU passporting</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The figures come from <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/377793/ripple-raises-500-million-at-40-billion-valuation-in-round-led-by-fortress-citadel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block's report on the $40 billion round</a>, which also noted more than $4 billion of strategic investments in 2025; <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250807771714/en/Ripple-to-Acquire-Rail-for-%24200M-Expanding-Leadership-in-Stablecoin-Payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ripple's Rail announcement</a>, which said Rail was expected to handle over 10% of a $36 billion B2B stablecoin market in 2025 (the deal completed on 11 August 2025); <a href="https://ripple.com/ripple-press/ripple-breaks-into-corporate-treasury-with-gtreasury-acquisition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ripple's October 2025 GTreasury announcement</a>; and <a href="https://ripple.com/ripple-press/ripple-secures-federal-approval-to-establish-national-trust-bank/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ripple's December 2025 release</a> on the trust bank. In 2026 Ripple added customers including Convera in March and South Korea's Jeonbuk Bank in August, and CEO Brad Garlinghouse has set a target of a $1 billion annual operating revenue run rate by the end of 2026, excluding XRP sales.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Ripple's bet is no longer a token. It is a licensed, vertically integrated payments company that happens to own one.</blockquote>

<h2>How does Ripple compare with SWIFT correspondent banking?</h2>
<p>SWIFT is a messaging network, while correspondent banks move the money. Ripple Payments bundles messaging, settlement and payout into one service. SWIFT says 90% of payments on its network reach the destination bank within an hour, but only 43% reach the end customer that fast, which is where Ripple claims an edge.</p>
<p>Those SWIFT figures, announced in October 2024 and <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/?p=2275027" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by PYMNTS</a>, already beat the G20 target of 75% of payments processed within an hour by 2027 at the bank-to-bank level. The weak point is the last mile, where domestic processing, compliance checks and cut-off times slow delivery. SWIFT's ISO 20022 migration is designed to reduce that friction with richer data.</p>
<p>Ripple's advantage is strongest where correspondent banking is thinnest: smaller currencies, weekend payments and corridors where pre-funding is expensive. Its disadvantage is reach. SWIFT connects nearly every bank in the world; Ripple's 90-plus payout markets depend on local partners, and in some countries regulation limits what digital assets can be used. In India, for instance, Ripple's publicly announced deployments have been bank-led, such as LuLu Exchange and Federal Bank connecting through RippleNet Cloud in 2021 for transfers from LuLu's 76 UAE branches.</p>

<h3>A worked example: what the cost gap means</h3>
<p>Ripple does not publish a public price list, so a direct fee comparison is not possible. What can be measured is the cost Ripple says it can undercut. The World Bank's global average for sending $200 was 6.36% in the third quarter of 2025. On a $200 transfer, that is $12.72. On $1,000 sent as five $200 transfers over a year, the same average adds up to $63.60.</p>
<p>Now take the Tiruppur exporter's $48,000 invoice. Suppose, purely as an illustration, that the correspondent route charges a $40 combined fee plus 0.5% hidden in the FX rate. That is $40 plus $240, or $280, and three days of float. A provider that settled in minutes for, say, 0.3% all-in would cost $144 and release the cash the same day. Those percentages are hypothetical; the point is that savings come mainly from the FX spread and pre-funding, not the headline fee. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> report shows how to read a quote.</p>

<h2>Can Ripple Payments be used for India and the UAE?</h2>
<p>Ripple Payments has a licensed base in the UAE through its DFSA licence, granted in March 2025, and announced Zand Bank and Mamo as UAE customers in May 2025. For India, deployments have run through banks and licensed money transfer firms, since the user receives rupees through the domestic banking system rather than holding any digital asset.</p>
<p>The Gulf-to-India corridor is one of the largest in the world, and India received $135.46 billion in remittances in 2024-25, according to the RBI. That size is why every network wants a share. For senders, the practical question is not whether a provider uses Ripple behind the scenes, but the total cost and delivery time quoted. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India money transfer</a> compares providers on those terms.</p>

<h2>What should you watch next?</h2>
<p>The developments most likely to change Ripple Payments over the coming year are its national trust bank moving to a final charter, its push to hit a $1 billion revenue run rate by end-2026, EU expansion under its July 2026 MiCA licence, and US market structure legislation that would define XRP's status.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Revenue target, December 2026.</b> Ripple's year-end run-rate goal excludes XRP sales, so it will be a test of whether payments, custody, treasury and brokerage can stand alone.</li>
<li><b>Trust bank charter.</b> A final OCC charter would put RLUSD under federal supervision alongside NYDFS oversight.</li>
<li><b>EU rollout.</b> MiCA passporting from Luxembourg lets Ripple serve customers across the EU. Watch for named European bank customers.</li>
<li><b>US crypto market structure law.</b> Senate progress on the CLARITY Act, after a procedural vote scheduled for 15 September 2026, would affect how XRP and other tokens are classified. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-vs-stellar-payments/">Ripple vs Stellar comparison</a> will track the impact.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This article explains how a payments product works. It is not investment advice and makes no prediction about the price of XRP or any other asset. Businesses considering any cross-border provider should take professional advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-payments-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top Fintech Companies in the UAE 2026: Dubai and Abu Dhabi</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Leading fintech companies in the UAE in 2026, from Tabby, Wio and Ziina to Network International and VARA-licensed crypto firms, with CBUAE and ADGM context.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In a tailoring shop in Karama, the owner keeps three ways to get paid within arm's reach: a card terminal from one of the big acquirers, a phone that accepts tap-to-pay through a licensed wallet, and a QR code for the central bank's instant payment app. Half his customers split their festive orders into instalments. Two streets away, his cousin sends dirhams home from an exchange house counter he has used for a decade, while his nephew does the same thing from an app. That is the UAE fintech market in 2026 in a single block: incumbents and challengers selling to the same people, each under a different licence.</p>

<h2>How we chose these companies</h2>
<p>We selected UAE fintech companies using measurable criteria as of October 2026: reported revenue or profit, users and merchants, funding and valuation, and the licences each firm holds from the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) or Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). Companies are grouped by category, not ranked, and every figure is dated and linked.</p>
<p>A note on borders: several of the region's biggest fintechs operate across the Gulf. Tabby moved its headquarters to Saudi Arabia, and Tamara is a Saudi company with UAE customers. We include firms with a material UAE business, and cover the Saudi side in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/saudi-arabia-fintech-2026/">Saudi Arabia fintech guide</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$6.5B</b><span>Tabby valuation, Sep 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>AED 622M</b><span>Wio Bank net profit, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.4B</b><span>UAE venture funding, 9M 2025 (MAGNiTT)</span></div></div>

<h2>Who regulates fintech in the UAE in 2026?</h2>
<p>In 2026 UAE fintech is regulated by several authorities depending on activity and location. The CBUAE licenses banks, payment firms and stored value facilities onshore; VARA licenses virtual asset firms in Dubai outside the financial free zone; and ADGM's regulator covers firms in Abu Dhabi's financial centre. Dubai's DIFC has its own regulator, the DFSA. Choosing the right licence is often a company's first strategic decision.</p>
<p>The DIFC route deserves its own line. The <a href="https://www.dfsa.ae/news/dfsa-launches-innovation-testing-licence-fintech-firms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DFSA</a>, the independent regulator of financial services in the centre, has offered an Innovation Testing Licence since May 2017, a restricted permission that lets a fintech test a product for six to 12 months before seeking full authorisation. The centre is now large: DIFC had 10,018 active registered companies at the end of June 2026, including 1,933 AI, fintech and innovation firms, up 39% in a year, and its Innovation Hub added 361 companies in the first half, according to the <a href="https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2026/july/28-07/difc-records-industry-leading-achievements-in-h1-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dubai Media Office</a>.</p>
<p>VARA's framework covers eight regulated virtual asset activities, from exchange and broker-dealer services to custody, lending and token issuance, and requires every licensee to follow four compulsory rulebooks on company structure, compliance, technology and market conduct, according to <a href="https://www.vara.ae/en/licenses-and-register/licence-applications/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VARA's licensing page</a>. The CBUAE, for its part, runs the payment plumbing directly: its subsidiary Al Etihad Payments launched Aani, an instant payment platform that lets users pay with a phone number, on 16 October 2023, per the <a href="https://www.centralbank.ae/media/eccjvuib/al-etihad-payments-launches-aani-a-instant-payments-platform-for-digital-transactions-in-the-uae-en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBUAE announcement</a>. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm/">UAE crypto regulation guide</a>.</p>

<h2>Which are the largest consumer fintechs in the UAE?</h2>
<p>The largest consumer fintechs active in the UAE in 2026 are Tabby, the buy now, pay later company valued at $6.5 billion in September 2026, and Wio Bank, the Abu Dhabi digital bank that earned AED 622 million in 2025. Tamara is the other major instalment provider, and Ziina has built a wallet and payments business under a central bank licence.</p>

<h3>Tabby</h3>
<p>Founded in the UAE in 2019, Tabby announced in 2023 that it would move its headquarters to Saudi Arabia after getting a Saudi Central Bank licence, Finance Middle East reported. In September 2026 it raised $233 million in a Series F at a $6.5 billion valuation, up from $4.5 billion at an October 2025 share sale, with 25 million registered users, 70,000 business partners and more than $18 billion of annualised transaction volume, according to <a href="https://enterpriseam.com/ksa/2026/09/15/tabby-hits-usd-6-5-bn-valuation-on-series-f-round/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EnterpriseAM</a>. In the UAE it holds a stored value facility licence for TabbyCash, a spending account. The company says it has been profitable since 2023 and is in no rush to list.</p>

<h3>Wio Bank</h3>
<p>Wio is the clearest proof that a digital bank can make real money in the Gulf. It reported 2025 revenue of AED 1.24 billion, up 55%, and net profit of AED 622 million, up 57%, with deposits above AED 57 billion at year end, per <a href="https://mena.entrepreneur.com/business-news/wio-bank-reports-aed-1-24-billion-revenue-up-55-in-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Entrepreneur Middle East</a>. It serves more than 270,000 individuals and 120,000 businesses.</p>

<h3>Ziina</h3>
<p>Ziina became the first venture-backed startup to get a CBUAE stored value facility licence, as Mubasher reported in August 2024, and said at the time it supported over 557,000 businesses. It lets individuals send money and lets small merchants accept cards, Apple Pay and Google Pay, including tap-to-pay on a phone. Ziina's own site cites a $22 million Series A in September 2024.</p>

<h3>Tamara</h3>
<p>Tamara is Saudi-licensed but sells to UAE shoppers too, with instalment plans of up to 24 months and no late fees, according to its website, which lists Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain as markets. It became a unicorn with a $340 million Series C in December 2023, and in September 2025 secured an asset-backed facility of up to $2.4 billion from Goldman Sachs, Citi and Apollo-managed funds, citing more than 20 million customers and 87,000 merchants, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2615390/business-economy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arab News reported</a>. It has not published a newer valuation.</p>

<h2>Which companies run the UAE's payments infrastructure?</h2>
<p>The UAE's merchant payments in 2026 are dominated by Network International, which merged with First Abu Dhabi Bank's former payments arm Magnati in October 2025 under a Brookfield-led consortium, alongside the central bank's own Aani instant payment rail. Bank-linked players such as Mashreq's Neo Pay and data firms like Lean Technologies fill the gaps.</p>

<h3>Network International (with Magnati)</h3>
<p>Network International was taken private by a Brookfield-led consortium that included First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mubadala, ADQ and Olayan, after a recommended cash offer of 400 pence a share that valued it at about £2.2 billion; the deal closed in September 2024, per <a href="https://linklaters.com/about-us/news-and-deals/deals/2024/september/linklaters-advises-brookfield-led-consortium" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklaters</a>, which advised the buyers. Network and Magnati then completed their merger at the start of October 2025, creating a group operating in 56 markets across the Middle East and Africa, <a href="https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/network-international-magnati-officially-merge-1.500290283" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gulf News reported</a>. Before the merger Network alone served more than 240,000 merchants and over 250 financial institutions. It is also an early stablecoin mover: Gulf News reported in January 2026 that Network planned to accept AE Coin, a CBUAE-licensed dirham stablecoin, at point of sale and online.</p>

<h3>Lean Technologies</h3>
<p>Lean sells APIs that let apps verify bank accounts, pull financial data and take pay-by-bank payments. Its website says it has processed more than AED 16 billion, connected over 2 million accounts in MENA and serves 350+ clients, including Tabby and Careem. It holds ADGM authorisation and a CBUAE in-principle approval for open finance services, which makes it a bet on the UAE's open finance rules being switched on in full.</p>

<h3>Mashreq Neo and the banks</h3>
<p>Mashreq's digital arm Neo is one of the bank-owned challengers, and Neo Pay was among the first acquirers rolling out Aani merchant QR payments, according to the CBUAE launch announcement. Banks are also moving into tokenised money: First Abu Dhabi Bank, ADQ and IHC said in April 2025 they would launch a dirham-backed stablecoin subject to CBUAE approval, The National reported, and RAKBANK has in-principle approval for its own.</p>

<h2>Which UAE fintechs serve remittances and property?</h2>
<p>Al Ansari Financial Services, the listed exchange house, is the largest dedicated remittance brand in the UAE covered here, with 441 branches across four countries in March 2026. In property finance, Dubai-based Huspy says its mortgage unit processes more than a quarter of Dubai's residential home financing.</p>
<p>The size of the remittance pool explains the competition. Outward remittances through UAE exchange houses rose 27.8% to Dh188.8 billion in 2025, of which Dh115.7 billion were personal remittances and Dh63.3 billion trade-related, according to the CBUAE's Financial Stability Report 2025 as reported by <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-remains-major-remittance-market-as-outward-transfers-jump-28-to-dh1888-billion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khaleej Times</a>.</p>

<h3>Al Ansari Financial Services</h3>
<p>Al Ansari reported H1 2026 operating income of AED 635 million, down 0.5%, and net profit of AED 151 million, down 28.7%, per <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/al-ansari-financial-services-delivers-operating-income-of-aed-635mln-in-h1-2026-456490" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its results release on Zawya</a>. In Q1 the company blamed regional conflict hitting tourism, margin pressure from competitors including fintechs, and higher financing costs, while digital transactions rose to 29% of the total from 24% a year earlier, <a href="https://www.agbi.com/finance/2026/05/conflict-hits-profit-at-remittance-company-al-ansari/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AGBI reported</a>. For background on the corridor, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India transfer guide</a>.</p>

<h3>Huspy</h3>
<p>Huspy raised a $59 million Series B led by Balderton Capital in July 2025, taking total funding past $100 million, <a href="https://www.menabytes.com/huspy-series-b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MENAbytes reported</a>. It runs a mortgage broker portal linked to more than 25 banks and says it facilitates over $7 billion of property transactions a year across Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Spain.</p>

<h2>Which crypto companies are licensed in the UAE?</h2>
<p>In 2026 the UAE's licensed crypto firms include BitOasis, which holds a full VARA licence, Binance, whose Nest entities received full ADGM authorisation in December 2025, and Rain, which won VARA in-principle approval in May 2026.</p>

<h3>BitOasis</h3>
<p>BitOasis has moved from a provisional permit to a full VASP licence from VARA, allowing it to serve retail, institutional and qualified investors, per The Fintech Times.</p>

<h3>Binance</h3>
<p>Binance FZE received an operational minimum viable product licence from VARA in July 2023, initially limited to institutional and qualified retail investors, Blockworks reported. In December 2025 Binance received full ADGM authorisation for three entities, an exchange, a clearing and custody house and a broker-dealer, starting services on 5 January 2026, per <a href="https://www.agbi.com/tech/2025/12/binance-gets-full-regulatory-status-from-abu-dhabi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AGBI</a>.</p>

<h3>Rain</h3>
<p>Rain, a crypto brokerage and custodian with Bahraini roots, received VARA in-principle approval for exchange, broker-dealer and margin trading services in May 2026, a regional crypto news site reported. It says it has over two million users and has processed more than $11 billion since 2017, and it already holds an ADGM licence.</p>

<h2>How do the UAE's leading fintechs compare?</h2>
<p>The table lists each company's main business and its latest dated metric. Metrics differ by company, so treat this as a map rather than a ranking.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Tabby</td><td>Saudi Arabia / UAE</td><td>BNPL, spending accounts</td><td>$6.5B valuation, Sep 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wio Bank</td><td>Abu Dhabi</td><td>Digital bank, SME accounts</td><td>AED 622M net profit, 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ziina</td><td>UAE</td><td>Wallet, merchant acceptance</td><td>CBUAE SVF licence, Aug 2024</td></tr>
<tr><td>Network International</td><td>Dubai</td><td>Merchant acquiring, processing</td><td>56 markets after Magnati merger, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Al Ansari</td><td>Dubai</td><td>Exchange house, remittance</td><td>AED 151M net profit, H1 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lean Technologies</td><td>UAE / ADGM</td><td>Open finance APIs</td><td>AED 16B+ processed (company, 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Huspy</td><td>Dubai</td><td>Mortgage brokerage</td><td>$59M Series B, Jul 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>BitOasis</td><td>UAE</td><td>Crypto exchange</td><td>Full VARA VASP licence</td></tr>
<tr><td>Binance (Nest)</td><td>Abu Dhabi</td><td>Crypto exchange, clearing</td><td>Full ADGM authorisation, Dec 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rain</td><td>Bahrain / Dubai</td><td>Crypto brokerage</td><td>VARA in-principle approval, May 2026</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Where are UAE fintech profits and funding moving?</h2>
<p>In 2026 UAE fintech profits are shifting from transfer fees towards account balances, credit and merchant relationships, while funding is concentrating in a few large rounds such as Tabby's $233 million Series F. The figures below, taken from company results and MAGNiTT data, show both trends in numbers.</p>
<h3>Worked example: margins at Wio and Al Ansari</h3>
<p>Two sets of numbers show where the money is going. Start with Al Ansari. In H1 2026 it earned AED 151 million of net profit on AED 635 million of operating income, a net margin of about 23.8%. A 28.7% fall in profit implies H1 2025 net profit of about AED 212 million, on operating income of about AED 638 million, a margin of roughly 33.2%. On essentially flat income, the exchange house kept about 9.4 fewer fils of profit from every dirham it earned.</p>
<p>Now Wio. AED 622 million of 2025 profit on AED 1.24 billion of revenue is a net margin of about 50%. Spread across its roughly 390,000 personal and business customers, that is about AED 1,595 of profit per customer for the year. Most of that is earned on deposits and business accounts, not on transfer fees.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The UAE's fintech profits are drifting away from the transfer counter and towards whoever holds the account.</blockquote>
<p>The lesson is not that exchange houses are finished. Al Ansari's digital volumes grew 69% year on year in Q1 2026. It is that pricing power on the transfer itself is eroding, while balances, credit and merchant relationships keep their margins. That is also why Tabby is pushing from instalments into accounts and SME finance.</p>
<p class="note">Margins calculated from the reported figures; implied H1 2025 values are derived from the stated year-on-year changes and are approximate.</p>

<h3>How much venture money is going into UAE fintech?</h3>
<p>UAE startups raised a record $1.4 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 188% year on year across 164 deals, according to MAGNiTT data reported by <a href="https://enterpriseam.com/uae/2025/10/16/uae-venture-funding-up-188-in-9m-amid-foreign-capital-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EnterpriseAM</a>. MENA fintech as a whole took $965 million over the same period, up 97%.</p>
<p>Those totals have since been dwarfed by single rounds. Tabby's $233 million Series F in September 2026 alone equals about a sixth of the UAE's nine-month 2025 total. KPMG's Pulse of Fintech puts EMEA fintech investment at $11.3 billion in H1 2026, down from $18 billion in the second half of 2025, a reminder that Gulf money is not immune to the global cycle.</p>

<h2>What to watch next in UAE fintech</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Q4 2026:</b> whether Rain and other in-principle VARA approvals convert to full licences, and how many more exchanges follow BitOasis to full status.</li>
<li><b>Dirham stablecoins:</b> the CBUAE's decisions on the FAB-backed token and RAKBANK's in-principle approval, and how quickly merchants accept AE Coin through Network International.</li>
<li><b>Tabby's listing choice:</b> its CEO said in September 2026 it will pick the market that makes the most sense; a Tadawul or UAE listing would set the region's first big fintech IPO benchmark.</li>
<li><b>Open finance:</b> full licensing of providers such as Lean would let pay-by-bank compete directly with cards on fees.</li>
<li><b>Remittance pricing:</b> watch Al Ansari's Q3 2026 results for whether digital growth offsets margin pressure. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia corridor analysis</a> tracks prices.</li>
</ul>
<p>Anyone considering a UAE fintech product or licence should take advice from a qualified local adviser, as permissions differ sharply between onshore, Dubai and Abu Dhabi regimes. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/">Gulf payroll cards</a> covers another part of the market where fintechs are competing with banks.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources; company-stated metrics have not been independently audited.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>India&#x27;s Digital Rupee (e₹) in 2026: How It Works, Why Usage Is Uneven</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>India&#x27;s e₹ explained: retail and wholesale pilots, wallets, offline and programmable money, plus RBI&#x27;s latest user, transaction and circulation figures.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-rupee-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Ask a vegetable seller in Pune whether she accepts the digital rupee and she will probably point at her UPI QR code. In a sense she is right, because an e₹ wallet can scan that same code. But the money moving through it is different, and nearly four years into the Reserve Bank of India's pilot, that difference is still the whole story.</p>

<h2>What the e₹ actually is</h2>
<p>The e₹ is India's central bank digital currency. According to the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/commonman/English/scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=3686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI's own FAQ</a>, it is legal tender, it sits at par with paper cash, and it is a direct liability of the RBI. That last point is the one people miss. The balance in your bank account is a promise from your bank. A rupee note in your wallet, and an e₹ in your phone, is a promise from the central bank itself.</p>
<p>The RBI creates the e₹ and hands it to banks and approved non-banks, which then give customers a wallet app. You load the wallet from your savings account, any time of day, with no fee and no minimum balance. The wallet pays no interest, which is deliberate: the RBI wants it to behave like cash, not like a savings product that pulls deposits away from banks.</p>

<h2>Two pilots, two very different jobs</h2>
<p>India runs two separate experiments. The wholesale pilot started in November 2022 and is aimed at institutions. The RBI lists 16 participants and four use cases: settling government bonds in the secondary market, call money, and tokenised issuance and settlement of certificates of deposit and corporate bonds. Ordinary people never touch it.</p>
<p>The retail pilot began on 1 December 2022. This is the version with phone wallets, merchant QR codes and person-to-person transfers. When two e₹ wallets pay each other, the transfer settles instantly and never passes through either bank account. If you scan a UPI QR from an e₹ app instead, the payment works but settles on UPI's timelines.</p>

<h2>The numbers, as of late 2025 and 2026</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>8M+</b><span>retail e₹ users, per RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar, December 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>120M+</b><span>retail transactions worth over ₹28,000 crore since launch</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>₹771.66 cr</b><span>total e₹ in circulation, March 2026</span></div>
</div>
<p>User growth has been steady rather than explosive. RBI data cited by <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/cred-first-non-bank-to-offer-cbdc-launches-e-rupee-wallet-for-users-125012800753_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a> shows the retail pilot going from 1.3 million customers in June 2023 to 5 million a year later, while merchants rose from 0.3 million to 0.42 million. The RBI's 2024-25 annual report put users at about six million across 17 banks. By December 2025, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/retail-cbdc-transactions-hit-120-mn-value-crosses-28-000-crore-rbi-dg-125120501178_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the deputy governor said</a> the figure was a little above eight million.</p>
<p>Circulation tells a more awkward story. The RBI's statistical tables show total e₹ outstanding at ₹16.39 crore in March 2023, ₹234.12 crore in March 2024 and ₹1,016.50 crore in March 2025. Then it fell, to ₹771.66 crore by March 2026, according to the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=23977" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI handbook table</a> published in July 2026. A pilot can shrink for dull reasons, such as banks ending incentive campaigns or institutions rebalancing wholesale holdings, and the table alone does not say which. But it is a reminder that headline growth in earlier years was partly pushed rather than pulled.</p>

<h2>Non-banks join the party</h2>
<p>In January 2025, MobiKwik and Cred became the first non-banks to offer e₹ wallets, with Yes Bank as the sponsor bank. Users complete video KYC, load the wallet through UPI, and can send up to ₹10,000 per transfer and ₹50,000 a day. This matters more than it looks. Most Indians already live inside a handful of payment apps, and asking them to download a separate bank wallet for a pilot was always a hard sell.</p>

<h2>The features that make it more than a copy of UPI</h2>
<h3>Programmable money</h3>
<p>This is the e₹'s real selling point. A government department or an employer can attach conditions to the money it sends: an expiry date, a location, a merchant category, even a specific merchant. The wallet shows the user what those conditions are. The RBI's annual report pointed to pilots such as direct benefit transfers under Odisha's Subhadra Yojana and company-issued fuel and meal allowances.</p>
<p>Picture a state scheme paying a farmer in Koraput a fertiliser subsidy that can only be spent at registered agri-input shops before the sowing season ends. That is hard to do cleanly with bank transfers. With programmable e₹ it is a setting.</p>
<h3>Offline payments</h3>
<p>The RBI said in its 2024-25 annual report that an offline capability had been introduced so payments can work with weak or no connectivity, though it has not published usage numbers. For a country where a trip into a hill district can mean losing signal for hours, this is the one feature that cash still beats every app on.</p>
<h3>Cross-border ambitions</h3>
<p>The RBI has said it is exploring cross-border CBDC pilots, without giving a timeline. If you want to understand how central banks are thinking about that, our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">Project mBridge</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> cover the two main models.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The e₹ will not win by being a faster UPI. It wins only where money needs rules attached.</blockquote>

<h2>So why is everyday usage still small?</h2>
<p>Put the e₹ next to UPI and the scale gap is stark. UPI handled an average of about 802 million transactions a day in September 2026. The e₹ took roughly three years to reach 120 million in total. Most people do not have a problem that the e₹ solves better than what they already use, which is why the RBI keeps leaning on programmability and government flows. We look at that trade-off in detail in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">e₹ vs UPI</a>.</p>
<p>There is also no reward for holding it. No interest, plus a per-transaction cap on some wallets, makes the e₹ a pass-through rather than a place to keep money. That is by design, and we think it is the right call for financial stability, but it limits organic growth.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Government payouts.</b> If more state schemes move subsidies onto programmable e₹, user numbers will rise for reasons that have little to do with consumer choice.</li>
  <li><b>Circulation in 2026-27.</b> Whether the March 2026 dip reverses will say a lot about genuine demand.</li>
  <li><b>Wholesale tokenisation.</b> The bond and certificate-of-deposit trials could turn out to be the quieter success story.</li>
  <li><b>Cross-border pilots.</b> Any formal announcement would change the conversation for the large Indian diaspora.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">Figures are from RBI publications and statements reported by Indian media. Circulation figures are end-March totals for retail and wholesale e₹ combined.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-rupee-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>UAE to India Money Transfer 2026: Costs, Exchange Houses, Apps and UPI</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>UAE to India money transfer in 2026: World Bank costs, exchange houses vs apps vs banks, UPI and Aani links, dirham to rupee timing and paying bills directly.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-to-india-money-transfer.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On the last day of April 2026, a line cook in Abu Dhabi from Thrissur checked his phone between lunch and dinner service and saw a dirham buying almost 26 rupees, a level <a href="https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/your-money%2Fsaving-investment%2Frupee-hits-record-low-uae-remitters-get-nearly-rs26-for-dh1-1.500524131" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gulf News</a> called one of the strongest windows yet for remitters. Two years earlier the same dirham averaged closer to 22.8. He sent three months of savings that night. Whether that was clever or lucky is a question every Indian in the Emirates is asking this year. It sits on top of a duller question that decides more of what actually arrives: what each transfer costs.</p>

<h2>How big the UAE-India corridor is</h2>
<p>The UAE is India's second-largest source of remittances. The RBI's sixth remittances survey, published in its <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx?Id=23260" target="_blank" rel="noopener">monthly bulletin</a>, found it accounted for 19.2% of inflows in 2023-24, behind only the United States at 27.7%. Applied to that year's total of about $118.7 billion, that implies roughly $23 billion a year moving from the Emirates to India. Indian officials put the number of Indians living in the UAE at more than three million.</p>
<p>The Gulf's share is slowly shrinking as more Indians work in advanced economies; the six GCC states together fell from 46.7% of India's remittances in 2016-17 to 37.9% in 2023-24. In volume terms, though, UAE to India remains one of the busiest corridors anywhere. We look at the wider region in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">the Gulf to South Asia corridor</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>19.2%</b><span>UAE share of India's remittances, FY24</span></div><div class="stat"><b>3.72%</b><span>average cost to send $200, Q3 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>0.77%</b><span>cheapest option in the World Bank sample</span></div></div>

<h2>What it costs: the World Bank numbers</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/United-Arab-Emirates/India" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank's corridor data</a> for the third quarter of 2025 put the average total cost of sending $200 (735 dirhams) from the UAE to India at 3.72%. That breaks down into an average fee of about 21.8 dirhams plus an exchange-rate margin of just 0.75%. It is below the South Asia regional average of 4.80% but well above the UK-India corridor, where the same transfer averaged 1.91%.</p>
<p>The average hides a wide spread. Across 24 listings from 12 firms, the cheapest bank option cost 0.77% and the cheapest money transfer operator 1.04%. At the other extreme, some bank transfers in the sample cost more than 21%. On a $500 transfer the best options fell below 1%. The pattern is clear: in this corridor the flat fee matters more than the exchange margin, which is why so many people send larger amounts less often.</p>

<h2>Exchange houses, apps and banks compared</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Channel</th><th>How you pay</th><th>Strengths</th><th>Watch for</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Exchange house branch</td><td>Cash or card at the counter</td><td>Walk-in help, cash services, bill payment desks</td><td>Fees on small amounts, payday queues</td></tr>
<tr><td>Exchange house or money transfer app</td><td>Debit card or bank account</td><td>Low fees on digital transfers, rate alerts</td><td>Different rates in app and branch</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bank transfer</td><td>Online or mobile banking</td><td>Can be cheapest for account holders</td><td>Very high costs on some legacy channels</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>In the World Bank sample, money transfer operators outnumbered banks 20 listings to four, and their costs sat in a tight band of roughly 1% to 3.4%. Bank pricing ranged from the cheapest in the corridor to the most expensive. The lesson is to compare specific products, not types of institution. Globally, digital transfers averaged 4.85% in early 2025 against 7.16% for non-digital ones, so moving from the counter to an app is usually the single easiest saving.</p>
<p>Counters still have a role. Workers paid in cash, people without a card that works online, and anyone sending a large sum for a property purchase often value a human who can check the paperwork. The point is to use the branch deliberately, for the transfers that need it, rather than out of habit for every monthly payment home.</p>

<h2>UPI and Aani: what is live and what is still a plan</h2>
<p>The UAE's Al Etihad Payments, a subsidiary of the central bank, launched <a href="https://www.centralbank.ae/media/eccjvuib/al-etihad-payments-launches-aani-a-instant-payments-platform-for-digital-transactions-in-the-uae-en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aani</a>, its instant payments platform, on 16 October 2023. It lets users send money to a phone number, split bills and pay by QR code. India and the UAE agreed to link UPI with Aani during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit in February 2024, and officials have spoken of deeper integration since.</p>
<p>What has arrived first is merchant acceptance for Indian visitors. NPCI International said in July 2025 that UPI QR payments were accepted at outlets including Dubai Duty Free and Lulu Hypermarket through local acquirers. A full person-to-person link, where a UAE resident pays a phone number in India from a local bank app in seconds, is the piece remittance users are waiting for. Until it is broadly available, check which leg of an advertised instant transfer is actually instant. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI global expansion</a> piece tracks the links country by country.</p>

<h2>Timing the rupee: why chasing the rate is overrated</h2>
<p>The rupee's slide in 2026 has turned many Indians in the UAE into part-time currency traders. Because the dirham is pegged to the US dollar, the dirham-rupee rate simply mirrors the rupee against the dollar. <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/indian-rupee-nears-rs100-dollar-nri-remittance-windfall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khaleej Times</a> reported in early June 2026 that the rupee was trading around 95.8 to the dollar after nearly touching 97 in May, putting a dirham at about 26 rupees. Someone sending 5,000 dirhams a month would have received about Rs 114,000 on average in 2024 and about Rs 130,000 at June 2026 rates.</p>
<p>That is a real windfall, but picking the peak is a bet on oil prices, conflict and capital flows. A calmer approach is to send fixed obligations such as loan EMIs and school fees on schedule, and move only discretionary savings when the rate looks unusually good. A rate alert is useful. A week spent waiting for one more paisa usually is not. And a strong headline rate with a high fee can deliver fewer rupees than a slightly weaker rate with none.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">In this corridor the fee, not the exchange rate, usually decides who gets the better deal.</blockquote>

<h2>Paying bills in India directly from the UAE</h2>
<p>The UAE was among the first countries where India's Bharat Connect network went live for cross-border bill payments, alongside Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. Some exchange houses let you pay a relative's electricity bill, insurance premium or school fees against the biller's own consumer number, so the money never sits in someone else's account. If you hold an NRE account, UPI with a UAE mobile number is another way to pay Indian bills in rupees. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">bill payments for NRIs</a> compares both.</p>

<h2>Before you send: a short checklist</h2>
<ul>
<li>Compare the total rupees delivered, not the fee or the rate on its own.</li>
<li>Use digital channels where you can; they are cheaper on average than counter services.</li>
<li>Confirm the provider is licensed by the Central Bank of the UAE.</li>
<li>Ignore social media agents offering rates far above the market; they are a classic front for fraud, as our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams guide</a> explains.</li>
<li>Keep receipts for large transfers, particularly property payments and deposits into NRE accounts.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-to-india-money-transfer.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>USDC and USDT Payments for Business: Payouts, Payroll, Treasury and Checkout</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>How businesses use USDC and USDT payments for supplier payouts, contractor payroll, treasury and checkout, plus how to accept USDC, accounting basics and risks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-payments-for-business.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A furniture importer in Dubai owes a workshop in Jakarta $48,000, and the wire she sent on Monday is still somewhere between two correspondent banks on Thursday. That gap, measured in days and fees, is why business use of USDC and USDT has grown faster than any consumer use case.</p>

<h2>Business is where the stablecoin volume is</h2>
<p>Most stablecoin activity is still trading. When McKinsey tried to isolate genuine payments, it estimated about $390 billion a year based on December 2025 activity, and roughly 60% of that, about $226 billion, was business-to-business. That segment grew by more than 700% in 2025. Payroll and remittances added about $90 billion. The figures are small against global B2B flows, but the growth rate is why finance teams are asking questions.</p>
<p>The two tokens they ask about are the two that dominate supply. As of October 2026, USDT had about $184 billion in circulation and USDC about $73 billion, according to DefiLlama. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a> covers reserves and issuers in detail. For a business, the practical difference is often about counterparties: USDT is widely used by traders and in many emerging markets, while USDC is the token most often supported by large US and European payment processors.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$226B</b><span>estimated annual B2B stablecoin payments</span></div><div class="stat"><b>733%</b><span>B2B growth in 2025 (McKinsey)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$20B+</b><span>Visa stablecoin settlement run rate</span></div></div>

<h2>Four ways businesses use stablecoins</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Use</th><th>Typical flow</th><th>Why firms try it</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Supplier payments</td><td>Buy USDC or USDT, send to supplier wallet or payout partner, supplier converts to local currency</td><td>Settlement in minutes, any day of the week</td></tr>
<tr><td>Contractor payroll</td><td>Platform pays freelancers in stablecoins, workers cash out locally or hold dollars</td><td>Reaches workers where bank wires are slow or costly</td></tr>
<tr><td>Treasury</td><td>Hold part of operating cash in dollar stablecoins across entities</td><td>Dollar access for firms outside the US, around-the-clock transfers</td></tr>
<tr><td>Accepting payments</td><td>Customer pays in stablecoin at checkout, merchant receives fiat or tokens</td><td>Lower card costs, global customers, no chargebacks</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>For supplier and payroll flows, the stablecoin leg is usually the easy part. The hard parts are the edges: converting into USDC from a bank account, and converting out of it into rupees, pesos or naira on the other side. Many firms use a payout provider that handles both ends, so the supplier never sees a wallet at all. Our article on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> explains what the stablecoin leg replaces.</p>
<p>Take a design agency in London paying twelve freelancers across Lagos, Manila and Mexico City each month. With wires, it pays a fee per transfer, a foreign exchange margin, and often a receiving-bank charge, and some workers wait days. With a stablecoin payout provider, the agency funds one USDC balance and the provider sends each worker either tokens or local currency. The savings depend almost entirely on how good the local cash-out is in each country, which is why the same tool can be excellent in one corridor and pointless in another.</p>
<p>Network choice matters as well. The same token exists on several blockchains with different fees and confirmation times, and both sides must agree on which one to use before the first payment. Finance teams that write this into supplier onboarding avoid most of the early mistakes.</p>

<h2>How acceptance works in practice</h2>
<p>Large processors have added stablecoins as a payment method, and the details matter.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Stripe.</b> According to <a href="https://docs.stripe.com/payments/stablecoin-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stripe's documentation</a>, customers can pay in USDC on Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Base and Tempo, plus USDP and USDG for US merchants. Payments settle into the merchant's Stripe balance in local currency. Acceptance is available to US businesses, with a private preview in the EU, Hong Kong, Mexico and Switzerland. There is a $10,000 limit per customer transaction, refunds go back in stablecoins, and there are no chargebacks. Note that USDT is not on Stripe's accepted list.</li>
<li><b>Shopify.</b> In June 2025 <a href="https://www.shopify.com/news/stablecoins-on-shopify" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shopify announced</a> USDC checkout on Base, built with Coinbase and Stripe. By default merchants receive local currency, with an option to take USDC into their own wallet.</li>
<li><b>Card networks.</b> Visa says stablecoin settlement with its partners has passed a $20 billion annual run rate. Here the merchant usually sees nothing different: a card is swiped, and the issuer settles with Visa in stablecoins behind the scenes.</li>
</ul>
<p>Stripe has also offered stablecoin financial accounts in 101 countries, letting businesses hold balances in stablecoins and send them out. That is aimed at the treasury use case, particularly for firms outside the US that want dollar access.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The stablecoin leg is the fast part. The work lives at the two ends, where tokens meet bank accounts.</blockquote>

<h2>Accounting and tax basics</h2>
<p>Accounting is catching up. In the US, the <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/08/300153-fasb-proposes-guidance-on-stablecoins-as-cash-equivalents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FASB proposed guidance</a> in August 2026 with examples of when certain stablecoins can be treated as cash equivalents under existing definitions, with comments due by 19 November 2026. Until a final standard arrives, treatment can vary, so finance teams should agree an approach with auditors before holding meaningful balances.</p>
<p>Tax reporting is also tightening. US brokers report digital asset sales on the new Form 1099-DA, with gross proceeds reported for sales from 1 January 2025. Final IRS rules include a $10,000 annual de minimis threshold for qualifying stablecoin sales, above which brokers may report in aggregate, and a stablecoin that loses its peg during the year loses that status. Other countries have their own rules, and a business paying contractors in tokens still has payroll and withholding duties. A local adviser is worth the fee.</p>

<h2>Risks finance teams should weigh</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Wrong network, lost funds.</b> USDC on Solana and USDC on Ethereum are not interchangeable at the wallet level. A transfer sent on the wrong chain can be unrecoverable.</li>
<li><b>Issuer and peg risk.</b> Both major issuers can freeze addresses, and any stablecoin can trade below a dollar in stress.</li>
<li><b>Off-ramp dependence.</b> A supplier who cannot convert locally has been paid in an asset they cannot use. Check liquidity in the receiving country first.</li>
<li><b>Compliance.</b> Sanctions screening, know-your-customer checks and record keeping apply as they do to wires. In the EU, transfers of e-money tokens can count as payment services that need authorisation.</li>
<li><b>Regulatory change.</b> Rules under the GENIUS Act, MiCA and Gulf frameworks are still being implemented. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">stablecoin rules under GENIUS and MiCA</a> tracks the main ones.</li>
</ul>

<h2>A sensible way to start</h2>
<p>Most businesses that adopt stablecoins begin small. A common pattern is to pick one painful corridor, often a supplier or contractor group in a country where wires take three days, and run a few months of payments through a licensed provider alongside the existing bank route. Compare total cost including conversion spreads, time to funds, and how many payments needed manual follow-up. If the numbers hold, expand. If the off-ramp on the receiving side is thin, the savings on the stablecoin leg will not matter. For where this is heading, see our look at <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">stablecoin payments trends in 2026</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information about payment methods and does not endorse any provider. It is not legal, tax or financial advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-payments-for-business.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Crypto AML and Sanctions Compliance 2026: OFAC, FATF, Screening</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Crypto AML and sanctions in 2026: OFAC&#x27;s Iran exchange designations, FATF findings, stablecoin freezes, and what compliance teams actually screen.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At 2 a.m. in Singapore, a transaction monitoring analyst at a regional exchange watches an alert queue refill. The US Treasury has just designated four Iranian exchanges, and the blockchain analytics feed has re-scored thousands of addresses overnight. One customer's deposit of 25,000 USDT now traces back, three hops away, to a wallet tied to a newly sanctioned platform. Does she freeze it, ask questions, or let it through? That decision, multiplied across every regulated crypto business, is what anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance looks like in 2026.</p>

<p>Crypto compliance used to be a story about bitcoin and darknet markets. In 2026 it is a story about stablecoins, state actors and the businesses that sit between them. This piece pulls together the official data, the year's sanctions actions and what compliance teams actually check.</p>

<h2>The threat picture in official numbers</h2>

<p>The FATF's annual reviews give the clearest regulator's-eye view. Its <a href="https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfrecommendations/targeted-update-virtual-assets-vasps-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June 2025 update</a> recorded the theft of USD 1.46 billion from the exchange Bybit by North Korean actors, the largest single virtual asset theft on record, with only 3.8% recovered at the time. It cited one industry estimate of about USD 51 billion in illicit on-chain activity tied to fraud and scams in 2024, and concluded that most on-chain illicit activity now involves stablecoins.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://fiaumalta.org/app/uploads/2026/07/7th-targeted-update-on-implementation-fatf-standards-vas-vasps-2026.pdf.coredownload.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 2026 update</a> went further on how the money moves. Competent authorities found that one Cambodia-based conglomerate laundered at least USD 4 billion between August 2021 and January 2025, including at least USD 37 million from North Korean cyber-heists. A stablecoin issuer froze more than USD 29 million in a wallet linked to the same group, which had reportedly marketed its own stablecoin as immune to freezing. In Spain, Operation Borrelli uncovered about EUR 460 million laundered from more than 5,000 victims. The FATF also found that terrorist groups increasingly prefer stablecoins over bitcoin, using rotating wallets and multi-hop transfers.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$1.46B</b><span>stolen from Bybit by DPRK actors, the largest crypto theft on record</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$4B+</b><span>laundered by one Cambodia-based network, Aug 2021 to Jan 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>87%</b><span>of 757 Iran terror-finance wallets in a Senate study used mainly USDT</span></div></div>

<p>The common thread is speed. Stablecoins settle across borders in seconds and can be fragmented through decentralised exchanges, bridges and multiple platforms faster than any investigator can follow. That is why compliance has shifted from reviewing transactions after the fact to screening them before they settle. For the consumer side of this, see our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ai-fraud-in-payments/">AI fraud in payments</a>.</p>

<h2>2026's defining sanctions campaign: Iran's crypto exchanges</h2>

<p>The US Treasury's "Economic Fury" campaign against Iran has produced the most intensive run of crypto sanctions to date. On 2 June 2026, OFAC designated Nobitex, Iran's largest exchange, alongside Wallex, Bitpin and Ramzinex, under counterterrorism and Iran financial-sector executive orders. The <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0519" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Treasury press release</a> said Nobitex handled over half of all Iranian digital asset inflows in 2025, Wallex 12% and Bitpin 10%, and that Ramzinex processed more than USD 2.45 billion in transactions. It also said Nobitex helped Iran's central bank access hundreds of millions of dollars in stablecoins. Nobitex claims more than 11 million users, according to <a href="https://www.elliptic.co/blog/inside-nobitex-how-irans-largest-crypto-exchange-fuels-sanctions-evasion-and-illicit-finance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elliptic</a>, whose analysts had earlier traced its wallet links to addresses tied to sanctioned and hacking groups.</p>

<p>More followed. In July, Treasury designated Iran-linked wallets holding more than USD 130 million, which an on-chain analyst identified as four Tron addresses holding about USD 131 million in USDT. August brought designations of two more exchanges, Shelbit and Aban Tether, and on 17 September Treasury sanctioned BitBank, alleging it moved hundreds of millions of dollars in bitcoin to the IRGC, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-17-us-sanctions-iranian-crypto-exchange-bitbank-alleged-bitcoin-transfers-to-irgc-415462" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. On 9 October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would probably seize about USD 1 billion more in Iran-linked crypto, while earlier totals remained unclear, per <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-09-us-targets-1-billion-iran-linked-crypto-seizure-bessent-says-we-know-where-it-is-418151" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</p>

<h2>Stablecoin issuers as the new chokepoint</h2>

<p>Unlike bitcoin, centrally issued stablecoins can be frozen by the issuer at the token level. That has turned issuers into a front line of sanctions enforcement. Tether says it froze more than USD 344 million in USDT across two Tron addresses on 23 April 2026 in coordination with OFAC and US law enforcement. In a <a href="https://tether.io/news/tether-has-supported-nearly-550-million-in-iran-linked-usdt-freezes-as-u-s-expands-sanctions-campaign/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2026 statement</a>, it put Iran-linked freezes over the past year at about USD 550 million, cumulative freezes at more than USD 5 billion, and said it works with over 340 agencies in 70 countries. It has also aligned its wallet-freezing policy with OFAC's SDN list, including secondary-market wallets. These are the company's own figures.</p>

<p>Congress is not convinced that is enough. A Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report released on 28 September 2026 analysed 846 sanctioned or blocked Iran-linked wallets and found that 87% of 757 wallets implicated in Iranian terrorism financing had transacted mainly in USDT, and argued the issuer had failed to act on some wallets with strong illicit-finance indicators, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-28-tethers-usdt-center-iran-shadow-banking-network-new-senate-report-says-417094" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. Tether rejected the claim. The episode shows where the policy fight is heading: issuers will be judged not only on whether they freeze when asked, but on whether they spot problems first. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT and USDC</a> covers the two largest issuers' approaches.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A freeze button is only a control if someone presses it before the money moves on.</blockquote>

<h2>What compliance teams actually screen</h2>

<p>A regulated crypto business runs several overlapping checks on every customer and transfer. The table below maps each to its legal hook and a 2026 example.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Control</th><th>What it checks</th><th>Legal hook</th><th>2026 example</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Customer screening</td><td>Names, owners and directors against sanctions lists</td><td>OFAC rules, including the 50% ownership rule</td><td>Nobitex executives designated June 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wallet screening</td><td>Deposit and withdrawal addresses against listed addresses</td><td>Strict-liability sanctions penalties</td><td>Iran-linked Tron wallets designated July 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Exposure analysis</td><td>Indirect links to risky entities across several hops</td><td>Risk-based AML programme</td><td>Analytics tracing Nobitex links</td></tr>
<tr><td>Travel Rule data</td><td>Counterparty names attached to transfers</td><td>FATF Recommendation 15 and national laws</td><td>91 of 109 FATF respondents have laws</td></tr>
<tr><td>Counterparty due diligence</td><td>Whether the other platform is licensed and well controlled</td><td>FATF guidance on offshore VASPs</td><td>FATF flags nested offshore VASPs</td></tr>
<tr><td>Unhosted and P2P monitoring</td><td>Flows to private wallets and P2P traders</td><td>FATF recommendations; EU self-hosted rules</td><td>58 of 66 jurisdictions rate P2P high risk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Two technical points trip up even experienced teams. First, OFAC's 50% rule concerns <b>ownership</b>: any entity 50% or more owned by blocked persons is itself blocked, even if it is not named. It does not mean funds become sanctioned once half of them pass through a listed address. Second, sanctions liability is strict. Treasury's release reminds firms that OFAC can impose civil penalties without proving intent, and that non-US firms can be exposed if they cause US persons to violate sanctions. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">FATF Travel Rule</a> explains the data layer that makes counterparty screening possible.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one deposit, three decisions</h2>

<p>Return to the Singapore analyst and her 25,000 USDT deposit. Suppose the analytics tool breaks it down like this.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Direct exposure: zero.</b> The sending address itself is not on any sanctions list. No mandatory block yet.</li>
<li><b>Indirect exposure: 7,500 USDT, or 30%.</b> That portion arrived three hops back from a wallet attributed to an exchange designated by OFAC in June. The other 17,500 USDT came from two regulated exchanges.</li>
<li><b>Customer profile.</b> The account holder is a freelancer who says she was paid by a client through a P2P trader. P2P is exactly the channel 58 of 66 assessing jurisdictions told the FATF they rate as high risk.</li>
</ol>

<p>A typical risk-based response: hold the deposit, request evidence of the underlying work and payment, and escalate to the money laundering reporting officer. If the explanation does not hold, file a suspicious transaction report with the local financial intelligence unit and consider ending the relationship. If the exchange has US nexus or uses a US-regulated stablecoin, legal will also check whether any portion constitutes blocked property. None of this is automatic. Analytics tools produce a risk score; people still make the call, and regulators examine whether the call was reasonable.</p>

<p>The numbers matter. A tool tuned to flag any indirect exposure above 5% will catch this deposit and thousands of innocent ones. Tuned to 50%, it would have missed it. Every compliance team is choosing a threshold, and the right one depends on its customers, products and regulators.</p>

<h2>Where the system is still weak</h2>

<p>The FATF's own 2026 data shows the gaps. Only 23% of jurisdictions (31 of 133) collect P2P market data. Just 26 of 142 have assessed DeFi risks, and only one reported enforcement against a DeFi arrangement. Of 91 jurisdictions with Travel Rule laws, 55 had taken no supervisory or enforcement action on them. Criminals route through whichever link is weakest: an unlicensed OTC desk, a lightly supervised offshore platform, a bridge. Our explainer on OTC crypto desks covers one of those channels.</p>

<p>Our view: sanctions enforcement has become far more effective at the stablecoin layer, because issuers and large exchanges can be compelled to act. The weakness is everything that does not touch a regulated chokepoint. Expect regulators to keep pushing obligations outward, to issuers, to analytics on unhosted wallets and to the licensing of offshore platforms, rather than inventing new rules for the core.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>October 2026:</b> whether Treasury follows through on the roughly USD 1 billion Iran-linked seizure Secretary Bessent flagged on 9 October, and how much is held in stablecoins.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> the response of Justice and Treasury to Senator Blumenthal's request for investigations following the Senate subcommittee's 28 September report.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> the FATF's next targeted update on virtual assets, which will show whether supervisors have started enforcing Travel Rule and licensing obligations.</li>
<li><b>25 October 2027:</b> the UK's FSMA crypto regime takes effect, bringing conduct supervision to firms that today are registered only for AML; see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">crypto licences</a>.</li>
<li><b>End of 2030:</b> the deadline for the FATF's revised Recommendation 16, which will apply similar originator and beneficiary data rules to all cross-border payments.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note"> This article explains AML and sanctions frameworks for general information and is not legal advice. Firms should take advice from qualified sanctions and AML counsel on specific obligations.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Wholesale CBDC Explained: e-Rupee-W, Helvetia, Agora and Pontes</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/wholesale-cbdc-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/wholesale-cbdc-explained/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Wholesale CBDC explained: RBI e-rupee-W bond and call money pilots, Swiss Helvetia, BIS Agora and Mariana, ECB Pontes, and why central banks start here.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/wholesale-cbdc-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At a public sector bank's treasury desk in Mumbai, a dealer lends to another bank overnight in the call money market. Since October 2023, for a group of nine banks, the cash leg of some of those deals has moved not over the RTGS system but as wholesale digital rupees, settled the same day. Nobody outside the dealing room noticed. That is the point of wholesale CBDC: it changes the plumbing under markets without asking the public to download anything.</p>

<h2>What a wholesale CBDC is, and what it is not</h2>
<p>Central banks already provide digital money to banks. Reserve balances at the RBI, the ECB or the Swiss National Bank are entries in a central bank ledger, moved through real-time gross settlement systems. So what is new? A wholesale CBDC puts central bank money into a form that can live on a shared or programmable ledger, often alongside tokenised securities. That lets the cash leg and the asset leg of a trade settle together in one step, a pattern known as atomic delivery versus payment, and lets institutions write rules into the settlement itself.</p>
<p>The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&amp;ID=1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2022 concept note</a> drew the line clearly: retail CBDC for everyone, wholesale CBDC restricted to select financial institutions for interbank transfers and wholesale settlement. A wholesale CBDC is not a stablecoin and not a tokenised bank deposit; it is a claim on the central bank itself. For the full taxonomy, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins vs CBDC vs tokenised deposits</a>.</p>

<h2>India's e-rupee-W: bonds, then call money, then tokenised CDs</h2>
<p>The wholesale pilot began on 1 November 2022, a month before the retail pilot. Nine banks took part: State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, IDFC First Bank and HSBC, settling secondary-market trades in government securities, as FinTech Futures reported at launch. The RBI's stated aim was a more efficient interbank market with lower costs, by reducing the need for settlement guarantee infrastructure or collateral.</p>
<p>The second use case followed in October 2023. According to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/industry/banking/rbi-starts-pilot-programme-for-wholesale-digital-rupee-in-call-money-market-123101201052_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a>, nine banks, four public and five private, began settling call money trades in e-rupee instead of RTGS, on a same-day basis, with the rest of the operating process unchanged. The roadmap described by people familiar with it ran from bonds to call money to repo and then asset tokenisation.</p>
<p>The tokenisation step arrived in 2025-26. The RBI said in its annual report that it had begun a pilot to issue and trade certificates of deposit in tokenised form on its Unified Markets Interface, with settlement in wholesale CBDC, as <a href="https://www.orissapost.com/rbi-expands-e-rupee-pilot-launches-tokenised-credit-deposit-trial/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OrissaPOST reported</a>. For 2026-27 the bank has said it will explore more tokenisation pilots, widen participants and set up a CBDC and Asset Tokenisation sandbox. We cover the asset side in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/">real-world asset tokenisation</a>.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what changes in a call money trade</h2>
<p>Take a single overnight loan. Bank A lends ₹200 crore to Bank B at 6.72%, the weighted average call rate on the day Business Standard reported the pilot. Interest for one night is ₹200 crore × 6.72% ÷ 365, or about ₹3.68 lakh. Bank B repays ₹200.0368 crore the next day.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Through RTGS.</b> The trade is agreed on the dealing system, cleared, and the cash moves between the two banks' reserve accounts at the RBI.</li>
<li><b>Through e-rupee-W.</b> The trade is agreed the same way. The cash leg moves as wholesale e-rupee tokens from Bank A's wallet to Bank B's, settling the same day. On maturity, ₹200.0368 crore in tokens moves back.</li>
</ul>
<p>The interest is identical. The credit risk is identical. What changes is the settlement asset and the ledger it moves on. For a plain overnight loan, the benefit is modest. The value shows up when the cash leg can be tied to something else: a tokenised CD that transfers only if the payment does, a repo where collateral and cash swap in one step, or a cross-border trade where two currencies move together. That is why the RBI's sequence ends with tokenisation rather than call money.</p>
<p class="note">The ₹200 crore trade is illustrative; volumes in the e-rupee-W call money pilot have not been published.</p>

<h2>Switzerland's Helvetia: wholesale CBDC in production</h2>
<p>The Swiss National Bank has gone furthest toward making wholesale CBDC routine. It has provided wholesale CBDC on SIX Digital Exchange since the end of 2023, when the first tokenised transaction was settled, so that digital bonds traded there can settle against central bank money on a delivery-versus-payment basis. The pilot, known as Helvetia III, was extended by two years in June 2024 and, after a review, by another year to at least mid-2027, according to <a href="https://finadium.com/swiss-central-bank-extends-wcbdc-project-to-mid-2027-and-expands-to-include-rtgs-settlement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finadium</a>.</p>
<p>The 2025 extension also widened the approach. BX Digital, which plans a trading venue for tokenised assets, gets a production connection to the Swiss Interbank Clearing system, so tokenised trades can settle in ordinary central bank money through a bridge rather than as a token. The SNB stresses that none of this is a promise to offer wholesale CBDC permanently. That caution is telling: even the most advanced central bank in this area keeps both routes open.</p>

<h2>Cross-border: Mariana, Agora and mBridge</h2>
<p>Domestic settlement is the easy half. The bigger prize is cross-border, where a payment today passes through a chain of correspondent banks, as we explain in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking explained</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc/mariana.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Mariana</a>, run by the BIS with the Banque de France, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Swiss National Bank, tested trading and settling hypothetical euro, Singapore dollar and Swiss franc wholesale CBDCs on a public blockchain using an automated market maker. Its final report in September 2023 found the approach feasible, while stressing that the work was experimental.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/fmis/agora.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Agorá</a> is the more consequential effort. Launched in April 2024 with eight central banks, including those of five major reserve currencies, and more than 40 financial institutions convened by the Institute of International Finance, it built a shared programmable platform where tokenised reserves and tokenised commercial bank deposits sit side by side. Its main report came out on 27 May 2026. In July 2026, 28 institutions and central banks ran real-value tests in several currencies, about CHF 800,000 in total across 17 scenarios, with individual payments from CHF 9,000 to CHF 125,000.</p>
<p>Project mBridge, a multi-CBDC platform built by a group of central banks, shows what scale looks like. By the end of November 2025 it had processed 4,047 cross-border payments worth a cumulative 387.2 billion yuan, with the digital yuan accounting for about 95.3% of transaction value, according to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-digital-yuan-become-interest-114013815.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BeInCrypto figures republished by Yahoo Finance</a>. That concentration is the story: a multi-currency platform that runs mainly on one currency. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">our mBridge explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>Europe's Pontes: the bridge went live in September 2026</h2>
<p>The Eurosystem took a different route. Instead of issuing a wholesale CBDC token, it connected DLT platforms to its existing settlement system. On 21 September 2026 it launched Pontes, which lets wholesale transactions in tokenised assets settle in central bank money, according to the <a href="https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/bce-comunicati/documenti/2026/ecb.pr260921.en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ECB press release</a>. Four market DLT operators were named: Axiology, Cashlink, Clearstream and SWIAT. Thirteen market participants plus the Bundesbank had onboarded at launch.</p>
<p>The ECB's own <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/intro/events/shared/pdf/20260722/timeline.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">timeline</a> sets out what comes next: settlement finality, support for all T2 currencies and T2-aligned operating hours in 2027, then overnight liquidity for tokenised central bank money and a stated aim of 24/7 opening in the second half of 2028. Alongside sits Appia, a longer-term roadmap for a tokenised European financial system run with Danmarks Nationalbank, which aims for a blueprint by 2028. This followed exploratory trials from May to November 2024 involving 64 market participants and more than 50 experiments, according to Payment Expert.</p>

<h2>The projects compared</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Project</th><th>Who</th><th>What settles</th><th>Model</th><th>Status (Oct 2026)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>e-rupee-W</td><td>RBI, nine banks</td><td>G-secs, call money, tokenised CDs</td><td>Wholesale CBDC token</td><td>Pilot since Nov 2022</td></tr>
<tr><td>Helvetia III</td><td>SNB, SIX Digital Exchange</td><td>Tokenised bonds</td><td>Wholesale CBDC token plus SIC link</td><td>Live pilot to mid-2027</td></tr>
<tr><td>Pontes</td><td>Eurosystem, 4 DLT operators</td><td>Tokenised asset transactions</td><td>Bridge from DLT to central bank money</td><td>Launched 21 Sep 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Agorá</td><td>BIS, 8 central banks, 40+ firms</td><td>Cross-border payments</td><td>Tokenised reserves and deposits on one platform</td><td>Report May 2026; real-value tests July 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mariana</td><td>BIS, BdF, MAS, SNB</td><td>Cross-border FX</td><td>wCBDC with automated market maker</td><td>Concluded Sep 2023</td></tr>
<tr><td>mBridge</td><td>Participating central banks</td><td>Cross-border payments</td><td>Multi-CBDC platform</td><td>4,047 payments by Nov 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Why central banks start with wholesale</h2>
<p>Look at where the real money is moving and a pattern stands out. Wholesale projects are live or near-live in India, Switzerland and the euro area. Retail CBDC is still in pilot in India and still in legislation in Europe. That ordering is deliberate.</p>
<p>First, wholesale CBDC avoids the hardest political question in retail CBDC: what happens to bank deposits. In a non-binding technical analysis reported by <a href="https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/mni-brief-digital-euro-3k-limit-little-stability-risk-ecb-1760089489547" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MNI</a> in October 2025, ECB staff estimated that in a severe stress case where every user held the maximum €3,000 in a retail digital euro, outflows could reach €699 billion, about 8.2% of retail sight deposits. A wholesale CBDC sits among institutions that already hold central bank money, so there is no such question.</p>
<p>Second, tokenised markets are coming whether or not central banks join. If tokenised bonds settle in stablecoins or tokenised deposits only, the safest settlement asset, central bank money, is absent from the newest markets. Pontes and Helvetia are, at heart, defensive moves to keep central bank money as the anchor.</p>
<p>Third, wholesale is where programmability is uncontroversial. Nobody worries about civil liberties when a bond and its payment swap atomically. The same feature in a citizen's wallet raises questions we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">the CBDC privacy debate</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Wholesale CBDC is the part of the CBDC story where central banks are protecting their role rather than reinventing the citizen's wallet.</blockquote>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>2026-27, India:</b> the RBI's plans for more tokenisation pilots and the CAT sandbox; the first published volumes for e-rupee-W would be a useful signal.</li>
<li><b>2027, euro area:</b> Pontes adds settlement finality, multi-currency T2 support and 22.5-hours-a-day, five-days-a-week operation.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027, Switzerland:</b> the current end date for Helvetia III; watch whether the SNB extends again or commits to a permanent service.</li>
<li><b>Second half of 2028:</b> Pontes enhanced products and Appia's blueprint for an integrated DLT-based financial system.</li>
<li><b>Agorá's next phase:</b> the BIS says testing continues with a larger role for the private sector.</li>
</ul>
<p>For the retail side of the same story, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">our CBDC tracker</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/wholesale-cbdc-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Cross-Border Payment Companies 2026: 13 Leaders Compared</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-payment-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-payment-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Leading cross-border payment companies for businesses in 2026: Airwallex, Payoneer, Thunes, Nium, dLocal, Ebury, Corpay, Visa, Stripe, Ripple and more.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cross-border-payment-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A knitwear exporter in Tiruppur ships 4,000 sweaters to a buyer in Rotterdam. The invoice is in euros, the mill's costs are in rupees, and the cash will pass through at least two companies the exporter has never heard of before it lands. One collects the euros, another converts them, a third pays out on a local rail in India. That invisible chain is the cross-border payments industry for businesses. In 2026 it is crowded, profitable and changing quickly, as card networks, fintechs and stablecoin firms all claim the same pipes.</p>

<h2>How we chose these companies</h2>
<p>We selected companies by scale and reach as of October 2026: reported revenue or payment volume, the number of countries and currencies they pay into, licences held, and recent funding. We grouped them by what they do rather than numbering them, because a payout network and an SME account provider are not substitutes. Figures are dated and linked. Nothing here is a recommendation.</p>
<p>The market they share is enormous. FXC Intelligence estimated the total cross-border payments market at <a href="https://www.fxcintel.com/research/press-releases/the-cross-border-payments-market-grows-to-208tn-but-revenue-take-rates-tighten" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$208 trillion in 2025</a>, with B2B flows from small and mid-sized firms generating a revenue pool of about $191 billion, the largest of any retail segment. The same research found take rates fell in every retail segment between 2022 and 2025. Growth is real; margins are thinning.</p>

<h2>Who are the leading cross-border payment companies in 2026?</h2>
<p>The leading cross-border payment companies for businesses in 2026 fall into four groups: SME account and FX platforms (Airwallex, Payoneer, Ebury, Corpay), payout networks sold to other firms (Thunes, Nium, Wise Platform, Rapyd), emerging-market specialists (dLocal), and network giants (Visa Direct, Mastercard Move, Stripe with Bridge, Ripple). Airwallex, dLocal and Corpay grew fastest by revenue.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Airwallex</td><td>Singapore / USA</td><td>Business accounts, FX, cards</td><td>$1.3B annualised revenue (Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Payoneer</td><td>USA</td><td>Receivables for sellers, freelancers, SMBs</td><td>$87.5B volume (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ebury</td><td>UK</td><td>FX and payments for mid-sized firms</td><td>27,000+ business clients (Apr 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Corpay</td><td>USA</td><td>Corporate payments and FX</td><td>$1.64B corporate payments revenue (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Thunes</td><td>Singapore</td><td>Payout network for other firms</td><td>140+ countries, 90+ currencies (Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nium</td><td>Singapore</td><td>Payout and card issuing APIs</td><td>190+ countries, 100+ real-time (May 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>dLocal</td><td>Uruguay</td><td>Pay-ins and payouts in emerging markets</td><td>$40.8B TPV (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Visa Direct</td><td>USA</td><td>Push payments to cards, accounts, wallets</td><td>12.6B transactions (FY2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Stripe / Bridge</td><td>USA</td><td>Payments platform, stablecoin APIs</td><td>$1.9T total volume (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ripple</td><td>USA</td><td>Crypto-based payments and stablecoin</td><td>$95B+ processed (Nov 2025)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Which platforms serve small and mid-sized businesses?</h2>
<p>For small and mid-sized businesses, the largest cross-border platforms in 2026 are Airwallex, Payoneer, Ebury and Corpay. They offer multi-currency accounts, FX conversion and supplier payments. Airwallex is the fastest-growing, Payoneer is the most established with online sellers and freelancers, and Corpay is the largest by revenue after buying Alpha Group.</p>

<h3>Airwallex</h3>
<p>Airwallex raised $320 million in a Series H in June 2026 at an $11 billion valuation, up from $8 billion six months earlier. It reported annualised revenue of $1.3 billion as of March 2026, up 74%, more than 676,000 business customers and over 85 licences, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/airwallex-reaches-11bn-valuation-with-320m-series-h-funding-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. It is co-headquartered in San Francisco and Singapore.</p>

<h3>Payoneer</h3>
<p>Payoneer, listed on Nasdaq, passed $1 billion of revenue in 2025, reaching $1.05 billion on $87.5 billion of volume, according to its <a href="https://investor.payoneer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/payoneer-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full-year results</a>. Its B2B small business revenue grew 28% to $237 million. Interest on customer balances is still a large part of the total: revenue excluding interest was $821 million.</p>

<h3>Ebury</h3>
<p>Ebury, the international payments firm backed by Santander, secured about £550 million of funding in April 2026 led by Centerbridge Partners. It serves more than 27,000 businesses from 30 regulated markets, paying into 160 countries in more than 140 currencies, according to <a href="https://www.santander.com/en/press-room/press-releases/2026/04/ebury-santanders-international-payments-fintech-secures-550-million-to-accelerate-growth-and-global-expansion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Santander</a>, which says revenue has grown more than 30% a year since 2020.</p>

<h3>Corpay</h3>
<p>Corpay's corporate payments segment, which includes its cross-border FX business, earned $1.64 billion of revenue in 2025, up 34%, out of group revenue of $4.53 billion, per its <a href="https://www.corpay.com/corporate-newsroom/19651/corpay-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">annual results</a>. It closed the purchase of Alpha Group in the fourth quarter, its largest cross-border deal so far. Since April 2025 it has also been Mastercard's exclusive provider of large-ticket cross-border payments to Mastercard's bank clients.</p>

<h2>Which companies run the payout networks other firms use?</h2>
<p>The payout networks behind many apps in 2026 are Thunes, Nium, Wise Platform and Rapyd. They connect to local bank systems, mobile wallets and cards in well over 100 countries and sell that reach to banks, remitters and platforms. Thunes and Nium have added stablecoin settlement in the past year.</p>

<h3>Thunes</h3>
<p>Thunes, which split from TransferTo in 2019, says its network reaches more than 140 countries and 90 currencies, with direct connections to over 12 billion bank accounts and wallets. In March 2026 it let the 11,500 institutions on Swift send payouts to stablecoin wallets using their existing connections, following a pay-to-stablecoin-wallet service launched in October 2025, according to its <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/aapreleases/cision20260317ae10756" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>. These are company figures.</p>

<h3>Nium</h3>
<p>Nium pays out in more than 190 countries and 100 currencies, with real-time delivery in over 100 of them, and holds licences in more than 40 countries, according to a <a href="https://circle.com/pressroom/nium-and-circle-to-connect-usdc-settlement-with-global-payouts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May 2026 Circle announcement</a> connecting USDC settlement to Nium's payouts. Its last disclosed valuation was $1.4 billion, after a $50 million round from Brunei's sovereign fund in June 2024, a drop from its peak, <a href="https://media.dealstreetasia.com/stories/nium-funding-398758" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DealStreetAsia reported</a>; we found no newer valuation as of October 2026.</p>

<h3>Wise Platform</h3>
<p>Wise sells its transfer infrastructure to banks and businesses. Morgan Stanley uses it for corporate clients' international settlements and Standard Chartered uses it for its SC Remit service, according to <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/fintech/payments/wise-posts-24-volume-growth-as-morgan-stanley-deal-boosts-reach/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Magnates</a>. Wise as a whole moved $243.5 billion across borders in its year to March 2026 at a 0.52% take rate.</p>

<h3>Rapyd</h3>
<p>Rapyd sells a single API for local payment methods, cards and bank transfers. In March 2025 it completed its purchase of PayU's European-based payments business from Prosus for about $610 million, funded largely by a $500 million raise, and said it would then operate in more than 100 countries with licences in 41, <a href="https://thepaypers.com/payments/news/rapyd-acquires-payu-for-approximately-usd-610-million" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Paypers reported</a>. A month earlier, Bloomberg reported that Rapyd was in talks to raise money at a valuation of about $3.5 billion, down from $9 billion in 2021; Rapyd declined to comment. It is private and does not publish revenue. It is one to watch because it is trying to combine acceptance and payouts in one contract, which most rivals still sell separately.</p>

<h2>Who specialises in emerging markets?</h2>
<p>In 2026 dLocal is the largest listed specialist in emerging-market payments, processing $40.8 billion in 2025 for global merchants that need to collect and pay out in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It earns more per dollar than developed-market rivals because local methods and FX are harder to handle.</p>

<h3>dLocal</h3>
<p>dLocal's total payment volume rose 60% to $40.8 billion in 2025 and revenue grew 47% to $1.09 billion, according to its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1846832/000207097926000110/a991dlocal4q25_earningsres.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fourth-quarter filing</a>. Its business is helping global merchants collect and pay out locally without building that capability country by country.</p>

<h2>How are Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Ripple competing?</h2>
<p>Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Ripple compete on network reach rather than service to individual businesses. Visa Direct handled 12.6 billion transactions in fiscal 2025, Mastercard Move reaches over 95% of the world's banked population, Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in 2025, and Ripple has processed more than $95 billion. All four are building stablecoin settlement.</p>

<h3>Visa Direct</h3>
<p>Visa Direct processed 12.6 billion transactions in fiscal 2025, up 27%, according to Visa's <a href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/28/visa-v-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fourth-quarter earnings call</a>. Visa says its wider network reaches about 12 billion endpoints across cards, accounts and wallets. In September 2025 it announced a pilot letting banks and remitters prefund Visa Direct with stablecoins.</p>

<h3>Mastercard Move</h3>
<p>Mastercard Move pays out in more than 200 countries and territories and 150-plus currencies, reaching over 95% of the world's banked population through accounts, wallets, cards and cash, according to <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/ca/en/news-and-trends/press/2025/september/corpay-mastercard-move-extend-near-real-time-payments.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mastercard</a>. Its partnership with Corpay added near real-time payments to 22 more markets in September 2025.</p>

<h3>Stripe and Bridge</h3>
<p>Stripe processed $1.9 trillion of total payment volume in 2025, up 34%, and was valued at $159 billion in a February 2026 tender offer, per its <a href="https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-2025-update" target="_blank" rel="noopener">annual letter</a>. It estimated stablecoin payments roughly doubled to about $400 billion in 2025, around 60% of it B2B, and said volume through Bridge, its stablecoin unit, more than quadrupled. That estimate sits close to the roughly $390 billion of genuine stablecoin payments McKinsey and Artemis counted for 2025.</p>

<h3>Ripple</h3>
<p>Ripple raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation in November 2025 and said it had processed more than $95 billion in payments and held 75 licences, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/ripple-reaches-40bn-valuation-following-500m-funding-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. Its dollar stablecoin RLUSD passed a $1 billion market cap within its first year, and it bought treasury software firm GTreasury and prime broker Hidden Road. More detail is in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/">Ripple in 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what a $50,000 receivable costs</h2>
<p>Return to the Tiruppur exporter, now collecting a $50,000 payment. Published price lists vary by plan and corridor, so a fairer comparison uses what each company actually earns per dollar, from its own figures.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Wise:</b> reported take rate of 0.52% would be about <b>$260</b>.</li>
<li><b>Payoneer:</b> $1,052.8 million of revenue on $87.5 billion of volume is about 1.20%, or <b>$602</b>. Excluding interest income, it is 0.94%, or about $469.</li>
<li><b>dLocal:</b> $1,093.6 million on $40.8 billion is about 2.68%, or <b>$1,340</b>, reflecting harder emerging-market rails and pay-in work.</li>
</ul>
<p>These are blended averages across very different clients, not quotes. They show the shape of the market: providers serving simpler, high-volume corridors earn fractions of a percent, while those handling local collections in difficult markets earn several times more. An Indian exporter should also factor in the conversion margin on rupee payout and the documentation rules covered in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/indian-exporters-payments-rules/">Indian exporters' payment rules</a>. For the business case, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments in 2026</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Reach is now cheap to claim. The real difference is who holds the licence, the liquidity and the local bank link in the last mile.</blockquote>

<h2>What about cross-border payments between India and the UAE?</h2>
<p>India and the UAE signed a local currency settlement agreement in July 2023 so trade can be invoiced and settled in rupees and dirhams without converting through dollars. Uptake has been modest, according to a <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/steps-needed-to-boost-local-currency-settlement-in-uae-dirham-and-indian-rupee?amp=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 2025 Khaleej Times analysis</a>, so most business flows still pass through banks and the platforms above. The UAE is also India's second-largest source of personal remittances, at 19.2% in RBI's 2023-24 survey. The rails used for the corridor are compared in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/">what are payment rails</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Stablecoin prefunding:</b> Visa's Direct pilot, Thunes's Swift link and Nium's USDC settlement all went live between September 2025 and May 2026. Whether banks use them for real volume by mid-2027 will show if stablecoins reduce trapped liquidity in prefunded accounts. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/b2b-stablecoin-settlement-case-studies/">B2B stablecoin settlement case studies</a> follow early users.</li>
<li><b>Airwallex's run rate:</b> its $1.3 billion annualised revenue in March 2026 already tops Payoneer's 2025 total. Its next disclosed figure will show whether 74% growth holds at that size.</li>
<li><b>Corpay's integration of Alpha Group</b> through 2026, which will test whether a card-heavy company can run a large FX book.</li>
<li><b>Ripple's acquisitions:</b> folding GTreasury into its payments product would put a stablecoin firm directly inside corporate treasury software.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and periods differ between companies.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cross-border-payment-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top US Fintech Companies 2026: 13 Leaders by the Numbers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The leading US fintech companies in 2026, from Stripe and Ramp to Chime, SoFi and Robinhood, compared by dated revenue, users, valuation and licences.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usa-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The controller of a 40-person HVAC contractor in Phoenix closes her books on the third business day of the month. Her corporate cards come from Ramp, her customers pay invoices through a Stripe checkout, her bank feeds arrive through a Plaid connection, and half her technicians are paid into Chime accounts. She has never thought of herself as a fintech customer. That is the clearest sign of how far American fintech has travelled: in 2026 the leading firms are no longer apps people try, they are the plumbing of ordinary businesses and households, and the numbers they now report look like those of banks.</p>

<h2>How did we choose the leading US fintech companies for 2026?</h2>
<p>We selected US fintech companies for 2026 on measurable criteria as of October 2026: scale (revenue, payment volume or customers in the latest reported period), growth rate, licences held or pending, funding or market value, and product breadth. We grouped them by category rather than ranking them one to thirteen, because a payments processor and a consumer bank app cannot be compared on one number.</p>
<p>Every figure below is dated and linked. Where a private company does not publish revenue, we use the latest valuation or customer count that was reported. Rippling, the payroll and HR platform that has pushed into corporate cards and bill pay, is a credible name for this list, but we could not verify a 2026 figure, so it is mentioned here rather than profiled.</p>
<p>The money backdrop matters. US fintech attracted $80.8 billion across 933 deals in the first half of 2026, most of the $86.9 billion recorded for the Americas, according to <a href="https://investmentnews.com/fintech/us-fintech-investment-tops-80bn-in-h1-2026-driven-by-mega-deals/267960" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KPMG's Pulse of Fintech as reported by InvestmentNews</a>. Mergers drove the total, led by FIS buying Worldpay for $24.3 billion. Venture money is concentrating in fewer, larger winners, which is why the same dozen names keep appearing.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$80.8B</b><span>US fintech investment, H1 2026 (KPMG)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.9T</b><span>Stripe total volume in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>59M</b><span>Cash App monthly transacting actives, Jun 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>Which US payments and infrastructure companies lead in 2026?</h2>
<p>By volume and valuation, Stripe is the largest private US fintech in 2026, processing $1.9 trillion in 2025 and valued at $159 billion in February 2026. Plaid leads bank-account connectivity with an $8 billion valuation set the same month, and Circle, issuer of USDC, is the largest US-listed stablecoin company, with $73.3 billion of USDC outstanding at the end of June 2026.</p>
<h3>Stripe</h3>
<p>Stripe's annual letter put business volume on its platform at $1.9 trillion in 2025, up 34%, and a tender offer for staff shares valued the company at $159 billion, against roughly $100 billion in late 2025, as its <a href="https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-2025-update" target="_blank" rel="noopener">February 2026 annual letter</a> and The Block reported. Stripe does not publish revenue; the letter said it remained robustly profitable and that its Revenue suite of billing tools was on track for a $1 billion annual run rate in 2026. Stablecoin payment volume across the market roughly doubled in 2025 to about $400 billion, by Stripe's estimate. Stripe has also bought its way into stablecoins: it acquired Bridge for $1.1 billion, and Bridge won conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter in February 2026.</p>
<h3>Plaid</h3>
<p>Plaid connects apps to bank accounts for payments, identity and income checks. An employee share sale in February 2026 valued it at $8 billion, up 31% from $6.1 billion in April 2025 but still well below its $13.4 billion peak in 2021, according to <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/26/plaid-valued-at-8b-in-employee-share-sale/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechCrunch</a>. Its chief executive has called an IPO part of the path for the coming years without naming a date.</p>
<h3>Circle</h3>
<p>Circle listed on the NYSE in 2025 and now reports like a rate-sensitive financial company. In the second quarter of 2026 it booked $701 million of revenue and reserve income, up 7%, with net income of $48 million and USDC circulation of $73.3 billion, up 19%, per <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Circle's results release</a>. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/">analysis of Circle as a public company</a> covers why falling rates squeeze its margin.</p>

<h2>Which US consumer fintechs are largest by revenue and customers?</h2>
<p>By quarterly revenue in the three months to June 2026, Robinhood ($1.31 billion) and SoFi ($1.22 billion) are the largest US consumer fintechs, followed by Chime ($670 million). By users, Block's Cash App leads with 59 million monthly transacting actives in June 2026. All four were profitable in that quarter, which marks a clear break from their loss-making years.</p>
<h3>Robinhood</h3>
<p>Robinhood reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32%, and net income of $573 million, which included $129 million of one-off gains. It had 28.4 million funded customers, $369 billion in platform assets and 4.8 million Gold subscribers, according to its <a href="https://mondovisione.com/news/robinhood-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-2026729/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 29, 2026 results</a>. The subscriber line, up 39%, is the quiet engine.</p>
<h3>SoFi</h3>
<p>SoFi is a chartered bank with a fintech's growth rate. Its second-quarter 2026 GAAP net revenue reached $1.22 billion, up 43%, with net income of $156.6 million, 15.8 million members (up 35%) and $45.5 billion of deposits, per its <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260729569583/en/SoFi-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Record-Net-Revenue-of-$1.2-Billion-Record-Member-and-Product-Growth-Net-Income-of-$157-Million" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earnings release</a>. The bank charter lets it fund loans with cheap deposits rather than wholesale money.</p>
<h3>Chime</h3>
<p>Chime listed on Nasdaq in June 2025 at $27 a share, valuing it at $18.4 billion at debut, according to <a href="https://www.americanbanker.com/payments/news/top-5-fintech-ipos-of-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">American Banker</a>. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue rose 27% to $670 million, active members reached 10.4 million and the company posted a second straight quarterly profit of $28 million, as <a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2026/08/06/chime-lifts-2026-revenue-forecast-on-robust-demand-cfo-to-step-down" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a>. It lifted full-year growth guidance to 25-26%.</p>
<h3>Block (Cash App and Square)</h3>
<p>Block's second-quarter 2026 gross profit was $3.17 billion, up 25%. Cash App contributed $1.97 billion, up 31%, from 59 million monthly transacting actives, while Square processed $72.8 billion of gross payment volume, up 13%, according to its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001512673/000119312526335117/d91486dex991.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shareholder letter filed with the SEC</a>. It raised full-year gross profit guidance to $12.51 billion.</p>

<h2>Which buy now, pay later firms lead the US market in 2026?</h2>
<p>Affirm is the largest US-headquartered buy now, pay later lender by volume in 2026, with $50.2 billion of gross merchandise volume in the fiscal year to June 2026. Klarna, Swedish-founded but listed on the NYSE since September 2025, is larger globally at $36.6 billion of GMV in one quarter, and its US volume is growing faster than the rest of its business.</p>
<h3>Affirm</h3>
<p>Affirm's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 delivered GMV of $14.1 billion, up 36%, revenue of about $1.17 billion and 27.8 million active consumers, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/08/302674-bnpl-fintech-affirm-beats-revenue-estimates-and-lifts-outlook-as-afrm-stock-surge-in-after-hours/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider's summary of the August 27 results</a>. Management guided to more than $64 billion of GMV in fiscal 2027.</p>
<h3>Klarna</h3>
<p>Klarna priced its US IPO at $40 on September 10, 2025, at a $15 billion valuation. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported revenue of $1,042 million, up 27%, GMV of $36.6 billion, US GMV of $7.9 billion (up 27%), 120 million active consumers and a $9 million profit, per its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002003292/000162828026057573/q22026earningsrelease.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing with the SEC</a>.</p>

<h2>Which business finance fintechs are growing fastest?</h2>
<p>Ramp is the fastest-growing US business finance fintech by valuation in 2026, reportedly valued at about $60 billion in October 2026, with Bloomberg putting annualized revenue above $1.5 billion by June. Brex left the independent field when Capital One completed its $5.15 billion purchase in April 2026, and Mercury, the startup bank, is moving toward its own national charter.</p>
<h3>Ramp</h3>
<p>Bloomberg reported on October 9, 2026 that Ramp was raising about $1.85 billion at a roughly $60 billion pre-money valuation, co-led by Thrive Capital and Dragoneer, as <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/ramp-reportedly-hits-60bn-valuation-in-1.85bn-funding-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures summarised</a>; Ramp had not confirmed it. In June the company closed a $750 million Series F at $44 billion, saying annualized revenue had passed $1 billion and it served more than 70,000 businesses. Bloomberg has since reported the run rate passed $1.5 billion by June. For context on the product category, see our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/corporate-expense-management-cards/">corporate expense management cards</a>.</p>
<h3>Brex</h3>
<p>Brex agreed in January 2026 to sell to Capital One for $5.15 billion in cash and stock, and the deal closed on April 7, 2026, according to <a href="https://www.capitalone.com/about/newsroom/capital-one-completes-acquisition-of-brex/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Capital One</a>. It is now a bank-owned platform, which tells you how incumbents prefer to buy rather than build in this segment.</p>
<h3>Mercury</h3>
<p>Mercury raised a $200 million Series D at a $5.2 billion valuation on May 20, 2026, and says it serves more than 300,000 businesses. It applied for an OCC national bank charter in December 2025 and received conditional approval in late April 2026, according to <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2026/mercury-valued-at-5-2-billion-as-it-pushes-deeper-into-banking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PYMNTS</a>.</p>

<h2>How do the leading US fintech companies compare?</h2>
<p>Compared on their latest dated metric as of October 2026, the US leaders split into three types: public companies reporting quarterly revenue (Robinhood, SoFi, Block, Affirm, Klarna, Chime, Circle), private companies valued through tender offers or rounds (Stripe, Ramp, Plaid, Mercury), and one acquired platform (Brex). The table below lines them up.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Stripe</td><td>San Francisco / Dublin</td><td>Online payments, billing, stablecoins</td><td>$159B valuation (Feb 2026); $1.9T volume in 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ramp</td><td>New York</td><td>Corporate cards, spend software</td><td>$60B valuation (Oct 2026, reported)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Robinhood</td><td>Menlo Park</td><td>Brokerage, crypto, subscriptions</td><td>$1.31B revenue, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>SoFi</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Chartered digital bank, loans</td><td>$1.22B revenue, 15.8M members, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Block</td><td>Oakland</td><td>Cash App, Square merchant payments</td><td>$3.17B gross profit, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Affirm</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Buy now, pay later lending</td><td>$50.2B GMV, FY to Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Klarna</td><td>Stockholm (NYSE-listed)</td><td>Buy now, pay later, shopping app</td><td>$1,042M revenue, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Chime</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Mobile banking for everyday earners</td><td>$670M revenue, 10.4M members, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Circle</td><td>New York</td><td>USDC stablecoin issuer</td><td>$73.3B USDC, end Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Plaid</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Bank-account data and payments APIs</td><td>$8B valuation (Feb 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mercury</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Business banking for startups</td><td>$5.2B valuation (May 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brex</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>Corporate cards, now Capital One</td><td>$5.15B acquisition (closed Apr 2026)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Metrics use different bases (revenue, gross profit, GMV, valuation) and are not directly comparable across rows.</p>

<h2>What are investors paying for US fintech revenue? A worked example</h2>
<p>In 2026 investors are paying about 40 times annualized revenue for Ramp, and about 8 cents of valuation for every dollar Stripe processed in 2025, far richer terms than listed peers get. Stripe does not disclose revenue, so volume is the only clean yardstick. Those prices assume years of growth, not current earnings.</p>
<p>Here is the arithmetic. Stripe: $159 billion divided by $1.9 trillion of 2025 volume is about 8.4 cents of valuation per dollar processed in a year. Ramp: $60 billion divided by the $1.5 billion run rate Bloomberg reported gives 40 times; on the $1 billion Ramp itself cited in June, it would be 60 times. Either way, the figure excludes the new $1.85 billion of cash.</p>
<p>Take rates explain why a dollar of volume is worth such different amounts. Affirm's fourth-quarter revenue of $1.17 billion on $14.1 billion of GMV works out to about 8.3%, because it earns interest on the loans it holds. Klarna's $1,042 million on $36.6 billion is about 2.8%, because most of its volume is short, interest-free pay-in-four. Applied to guidance, Affirm's outlook of $64 billion of fiscal 2027 GMV at an 8.5% take rate implies roughly $5.4 billion of revenue.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A dollar of payment volume is worth eight cents to one lender and under three to another. Valuation follows the cents, not the dollars.</blockquote>
<p>None of this is a view on whether these prices are right. It shows what has to be true: Ramp has to keep compounding at startup speed for years to grow into a 40 times multiple, while the listed companies are already being judged on profit.</p>

<h2>What should you watch in US fintech next?</h2>
<p>The next six months will test whether US fintech's 2026 profitability holds as interest rates fall and stablecoin rules take effect. Key dated events are SoFi's third-quarter results on October 27, 2026, Block's on November 3, 2026, and rulemaking under the GENIUS Act that will decide how Bridge, Circle and bank issuers compete.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>October 27, 2026:</b> SoFi reports third-quarter results, a read on whether deposit growth keeps funding its lending.</li>
<li><b>November 3, 2026:</b> Block reports, with guidance of $3.13 billion in third-quarter gross profit.</li>
<li><b>Charters:</b> Bridge and Mercury both hold conditional OCC approvals. Final approval would put fintech-owned national banks in direct competition with regional banks. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">guide to GENIUS Act implementation</a> tracks the stablecoin side.</li>
<li><b>IPO queue:</b> Stripe, Ramp and Plaid all have the scale to list, and Plaid has said an IPO is on its path. Any filing would reset private valuations across the sector.</li>
<li><b>Instant rails:</b> As <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/">FedNow and RTP</a> spread, account-to-account payments will pressure card-based business models over time.</li>
</ul>
<p>For how these names stack up against other markets, see our companion lists on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-fintech-companies-2026/">leading UK fintech companies</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/canada-fintech-companies-2026/">Canadian fintech companies</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may be restated.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usa-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>UPI Explained: 24 Billion Payments a Month and the Push to Go Global</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>How India&#x27;s UPI handles 24 billion payments a month, why its overseas footprint is still tiny, and what the NIPL export playbook really looks like in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/upi-explained-global-expansion.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In September 2026 India's Unified Payments Interface processed 24.07 billion transactions in thirty days. Abroad, the same system handled roughly 755,000 cross-border payments in the whole of the 2024-25 financial year. That gap is the real story of UPI's global ambitions, and it says more about how payment systems travel than any list of countries ever could.</p>

<h2>The numbers at home</h2>
<p>Start with scale, because nothing else in retail payments looks like it. NPCI data shows UPI handled 24.07 billion transactions worth Rs 29.37 lakh crore in September 2026, according to a monthly breakdown published by <a href="https://startuptalky.com/upi-transactions-september-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StartupTalky</a>. The headline volume dipped 1.8% from August, but only because September is a day shorter. Daily volume actually climbed to a record 802 million, the first month above 800 million, and volume was up 23% on a year earlier.</p>
<p>For the full 2025-26 financial year, the government told Parliament that UPI processed about 24,161 crore transactions (roughly 241.6 billion) worth Rs 314.23 lakh crore, with about 55.49 crore users onboarded as of June 2026. An IMF fintech note from June 2025 called UPI the largest retail fast-payment system in the world by volume, and an ACI Worldwide report put its share of global real-time transactions at about 49%.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>24.07B</b><span>UPI transactions, Sept 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>802M</b><span>average per day, a record</span></div><div class="stat"><b>10</b><span>countries with UPI live (June 2026)</span></div></div>

<h2>How a UPI payment actually moves</h2>
<p>UPI is a switch, not a bank. A customer installs an app (PhonePe, Google Pay, Paytm, a bank's own app) and links a bank account to a virtual payment address such as name@bank. When a shopkeeper in Indore shows a QR code, the app sends an instruction through NPCI's central switch to the customer's bank, which debits the account and credits the merchant's bank in seconds. Settlement between banks happens later in batches, but the money is usable at once.</p>
<p>Two design choices did most of the work. First, the app layer is open, so fintechs could compete on experience while banks held the accounts. Second, person-to-person and small merchant payments were kept free to the user, which made UPI cheaper than cash for a chai stall. The side effect is concentration: in August 2026 PhonePe and Google Pay together carried about 78% of volume, a share regulators have been trying to dilute for years.</p>

<h2>Where UPI works abroad</h2>
<p>According to a government reply in the Lok Sabha summarised in July 2026, UPI is live in 10 countries through 12 separate links. They fall into two buckets.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Merchant acceptance (P2M):</b> Bhutan (2021), Singapore (2021), the UAE (2022), France, Mauritius and Sri Lanka (2024), Nepal (2024), Qatar (September 2025) and Cambodia (June 2026). An Indian tourist scans a local QR code and pays from an Indian bank account.</li>
<li><b>Person-to-person transfers (P2P):</b> Singapore's PayNow link (February 2023), Nepal (June 2026) and Greece (May 2026).</li>
</ul>
<p>The Singapore-PayNow linkage was the first fast-payment-to-fast-payment link of its kind. At launch, the <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=55260" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reserve Bank of India</a> capped outward transfers at Rs 60,000 a day, with a handful of banks on each side. In France, NIPL partnered with payments firm Lyra in February 2024, and by June 2026 the Eiffel Tower was accepting UPI for tickets, with Paris and Nice airports next on the list, <a href="https://www.medianama.com/2026/06/223-upi-live-eiffel-tower-rollout-paris-nice-airports/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MediaNama reported</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">UPI's export is less about Indians paying abroad and more about other countries borrowing the blueprint.</blockquote>

<h2>Why the overseas numbers stay small</h2>
<p>MediaNama's figures show cross-border UPI transactions rising from 180 in 2021-22 to more than 755,000 in 2024-25, worth about Rs 258 crore. That is impressive growth from nothing, and still a rounding error next to a single hour of domestic traffic.</p>
<p>The reasons are structural. Most of the merchant links serve Indian tourists, which caps the market at outbound travel. An engineer in Calgary or a hotel cook in Muscat who wants to pay a local bill in local currency gets no help from a QR code that debits a rupee account. And the P2P corridors that would matter for remittances are the hardest to build, because they need two central banks to agree on limits, foreign exchange handling, compliance checks and who carries settlement risk. The PayNow link took years of negotiation for a single corridor.</p>
<p>There is also a fee problem in reverse. UPI is free at home because the government subsidises it and merchants pay little or nothing. Abroad, someone has to pay the acquirer, the currency conversion and the network. Those costs reappear, and UPI loses the price edge that made it famous.</p>

<h2>The quieter strategy: exporting the rails</h2>
<p>The more interesting work at NPCI International Payments Limited is not acceptance at shops. It is selling the design. In May 2024 NIPL signed with the Bank of Namibia to build a UPI-style system, and in June 2024 it signed a similar pact with Peru's central bank, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/npci-central-reserve-bank-of-peru-ink-agreement-to-develop-upi-like-system-124060500690_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. Trinidad and Tobago followed later that year, and an agreement with Uzbekistan's payments operator was signed in August 2026.</p>
<p>This is a smarter long game. A country that runs a UPI-like switch is far easier to link with later, because message formats, addressing and dispute rules already rhyme. It mirrors what Brazil did with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix</a> domestically and what the BIS-backed <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> is trying to do multilaterally: connect fast-payment systems once through a common hub rather than negotiating corridor by corridor.</p>

<h2>What would make UPI matter globally</h2>
<p>In our view, three things would move the overseas numbers from thousands to millions.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Remittance corridors with the Gulf.</b> The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar send enormous sums to India. A P2P link that lets a worker in Doha push money straight into a family's UPI account, priced near the mid-market rate, would be the first overseas use case with genuine volume.</li>
<li><b>Non-resident access.</b> Letting overseas Indians use international mobile numbers on NRE and NRO accounts was a start. Extending that to more countries and more banks widens the base.</li>
<li><b>Joining multilateral hubs.</b> Bilateral links do not scale. Plugging into a shared hub would put UPI one connection away from many systems at once.</li>
</ol>

<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>UPI is a domestic phenomenon with a growing passport. The tourist QR codes in Paris and Phnom Penh make for good headlines, but the bigger contribution may be the countries that build their own UPI-shaped systems. For anyone comparing it to India's central bank money experiments, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">the e-rupee versus UPI</a> covers why the two are not rivals.</p>
<p class="note">Domestic figures are NPCI data as reported for September 2026. International counts reflect a government statement from July 2026 and may have changed since.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/upi-explained-global-expansion.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>UK to India Money Transfer 2026: Real Costs, FCA Rules and Mid-Market Rate</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>UK to India money transfer in 2026: World Bank costs, the mid-market rate, FCA-regulated provider types, Faster Payments and HMRC basics for NRIs in Britain.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-to-india-money-transfer.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A junior doctor in Leeds sends £400 on the first of every month to cover her brother's education loan instalment in Pune. For two years she used her high-street bank because it felt safe. Then she compared the rupees that actually arrived with the rate quoted on a search engine that morning, and realised the gap between the two was her real fee. Her story is common in a corridor that is now among the cheapest in the world, but only for people who know where to look.</p>

<h2>A corridor that has grown in weight</h2>
<p>The UK matters far more to India's inflows than it did five years ago. The RBI's remittances survey shows the UK's share rising from 6.8% in 2020-21 to 10.8% in 2023-24, making it India's third-largest source after the US and the UAE. On that year's total of about $118.7 billion, that implies roughly $12.8 billion. The 2021 census counted about 920,000 India-born residents in England and Wales, the largest foreign-born group.</p>
<p>The UK's own numbers are fuzzier. The <a href="https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrant-remittances-to-and-from-the-uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration Observatory at Oxford</a> notes that World Bank estimates put outward remittances at about £9.3 billion in 2023, a figure it considers a significant undercount, and that India is the top destination.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>1.91%</b><span>average cost to send $200, Q3 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>10.8%</b><span>UK share of India's remittances, FY24</span></div><div class="stat"><b>65%</b><span>average shortfall at failed UK payment firms</span></div></div>

<h2>What it costs in 2026</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/United-Kingdom/India" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank's corridor data</a> for the third quarter of 2025 put the average cost of sending £120 (about $200) from the UK to India at 1.91%, made of an average fee of about £1.58 and an exchange margin of 0.59%. That is far below the 5.20% average for UK senders across all corridors in early 2025, and already under the UN's 3% target. The cheapest bank option in the sample cost 0.15% and the cheapest money transfer operator 0.49%. The most expensive listings cost more than 3%.</p>
<p>Low averages do not make every transfer cheap. When the cost is a percentage margin, it scales with the amount, so the gap between a good and a bad provider on a house deposit or a wedding is much bigger than on a monthly £120. See how the UK compares with other sending countries in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home in 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>The mid-market rate and where the margin hides</h2>
<p>The mid-market rate is the midpoint between the wholesale buy and sell prices for a currency, the number search engines and data sites show. Providers either convert near that rate and charge a visible fee, or quote a weaker rate and advertise low or zero fees. Both are legal. The second simply buries the cost in the rupees delivered. The test is easy: multiply your pounds by the mid-market rate at the moment you send and compare it with what the provider promises to deliver. We explain the mechanics in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">zero-fee transfers and the mid-market rate</a>.</p>
<p>The rate has been unusually volatile in 2026. The rupee weakened sharply against the dollar in the spring, trading around 95 to 96 per dollar by June according to <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/indian-rupee-nears-rs100-dollar-nri-remittance-windfall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khaleej Times</a>. That makes each pound worth more at home, which recipients welcome. It also makes it easier for a fat margin to go unnoticed while everyone is pleased with the headline number.</p>

<h2>Who you are dealing with: FCA-regulated provider types</h2>
<p>Three kinds of firm move most money from Britain to India:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Banks and building societies</b>, whose deposits carry FSCS protection, though international transfers are often priced mainly through the exchange rate.</li>
<li><b>Authorised payment institutions</b>, the licensed money transfer operators, which move funds on your behalf without taking deposits.</li>
<li><b>E-money institutions</b>, which hold balances in accounts or wallets and often offer multi-currency features.</li>
</ul>
<p>For the second and third groups the key protection is safeguarding, not deposit insurance: customer money must be kept apart from the firm's own funds so it can be returned if the firm fails. The FCA found that payment firms which went insolvent between 2018 and 2023 had average shortfalls of 65% of customer funds. Its <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-sets-out-changes-payment-safeguarding-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tighter safeguarding rules</a>, in force since 7 May 2026, add daily checks, monthly reporting and annual audits. Check the firm on the FCA register, and do not leave large balances sitting in a wallet longer than you need to.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A cheap corridor rewards the people who check, and quietly charges the people who assume.</blockquote>

<h2>Faster Payments: the domestic leg</h2>
<p>Much of the speed in this corridor starts on the UK side. Faster Payments, launched in 2008, moves money between UK accounts in seconds around the clock, with a scheme limit of £1 million per payment, though individual banks set lower limits. When you fund a transfer by bank payment, the provider usually receives it almost immediately, and many transfers to Indian bank accounts now land within minutes once the Indian side credits them. Delays, when they happen, are usually fraud or compliance checks on a new payee rather than the rails themselves.</p>

<h2>HMRC basics for NRIs and British Indians</h2>
<p>HMRC's <a href="https://www.gov.uk/tax-foreign-income" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guidance on foreign income</a> ties UK tax to your residence status and the type of income you have, not to the act of moving money abroad. If you are UK resident you are normally taxed on worldwide income, including rent from a flat in Bengaluru or interest on an Indian NRO account, usually reported through Self Assessment.</p>
<p>The rules changed on 6 April 2025, when the old non-dom regime ended. It was replaced by a residence-based system that gives 100% relief on eligible foreign income and gains for the first four years of UK tax residence, for people who were not UK resident in the previous ten years. Where India has already taxed the income, for instance through 30% TDS on NRO interest, double taxation relief may reduce the UK bill. India's Liberalised Remittance Scheme governs money leaving India, so it plays no part in transfers from the UK into India. If you own Indian property or investments, an adviser who understands both systems is usually worth the fee.</p>

<h2>What British Indians send money for</h2>
<p>Typical uses are steady from household to household: parents' running costs, education loan instalments, insurance premiums, property purchases and upkeep, and weddings. Many of these are bills with a fixed payee in India. Paying them directly avoids sending money twice. NRIs with UK mobile numbers can link UPI to NRE or NRO accounts, and NPCI said in 2023 that the UK would be next for Bharat Connect's cross-border bill service. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">paying bills in India as an NRI</a> sets out the routes. Whichever you choose, treat any social media agent promising rates well above the mid-market as a red flag.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information, not tax or financial advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-to-india-money-transfer.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Crypto Cards in the UAE, UK and USA: 2026 Rules, Fees and Spending by Country</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-uae-uk-usa/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-uae-uk-usa/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>Crypto and stablecoin card rules by country in 2026: UAE, UK, USA, EU, Canada and India, with the regulators involved, fees to check and card spending data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-uae-uk-usa.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The plastic looks the same everywhere, and the merchant in Dubai, Manchester or Austin is paid in local currency either way. What changes from country to country is everything behind the swipe: who may hold your crypto, who may convert it, and which regulator answers when something breaks.</p>

<h2>How much people actually spend</h2>
<p>Crypto cards have grown from a curiosity into a measurable channel. Data firm Artemis estimated on-chain card spending at about $100 million a month in January 2023 and around $1.5 billion a month by August 2025, an annualized pace above $18 billion by late 2025, as reported by <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/?p=257488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>. Visa carries more than 90% of that on-chain card volume. Visa itself says more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs were live as of its fiscal second quarter, with spend on them up nearly 200% from a year earlier.</p>
<p>Estimates differ by method. McKinsey counted about $4.5 billion of card-linked stablecoin payments in 2025, a much narrower definition. Either way, cards have become one of the main places stablecoins touch everyday commerce. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">how crypto cards work</a> covers the mechanics.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$18B+</b><span>annualized on-chain card spend, late 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>90%+</b><span>of that volume on Visa</span></div><div class="stat"><b>160+</b><span>stablecoin-linked Visa programs</span></div></div>

<h2>United Arab Emirates</h2>
<p>The UAE splits oversight. The Central Bank (CBUAE) regulates payment tokens under its Payment Token Services Regulation, published in June 2024. Under that framework, licensed dirham-backed tokens are the ones intended for paying for goods and services onshore. Foreign stablecoins must be registered, and the registration regime is designed so they are not used directly for local retail payments, though holding them for investment is not restricted, according to <a href="https://www.unlock-bc.com/125500/clarifying-uae-central-bank-payment-token-regulation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a regional summary of the regulation</a>. Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) licenses most crypto service providers in the emirate, and the free zones have their own regulators.</p>
<p>For a nurse in Dubai using a crypto card, the practical effect is that the card converts her balance into dirhams before the merchant is paid. The questions to ask are whether the provider holding her balance is licensed by VARA or another UAE regulator, and what conversion spread it charges.</p>

<h2>United Kingdom</h2>
<p>The UK is between regimes. Today the Financial Conduct Authority mainly supervises crypto firms through anti-money-laundering registration and rules on financial promotions. A full authorisation regime covering stablecoin issuance, custody, trading platforms and dealing has now been finalised, with the FCA's application gateway opening on 30 September 2026 and the regime expected to apply from 25 October 2027, according to <a href="https://www.lewissilkin.com/insights/2026/07/01/fca-finalises-core-crypto-rules-102n7nu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lewis Silkin</a>. Until then, UK users of crypto cards rely heavily on the card issuer's own e-money or payment licence and the provider's AML registration.</p>

<h2>United States</h2>
<p>US crypto cards are usually issued by a bank under a Visa or Mastercard program, while the company holding customers' crypto typically needs state money transmitter licences. The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, creates a federal framework for payment stablecoin issuers. It takes effect on the earlier of 18 January 2027 or 120 days after final regulations, and federal agencies were still publishing proposals through mid-2026.</p>
<p>Tax is the issue most US users miss. Spending crypto is generally a disposal. Brokers now report sales on Form 1099-DA, and final IRS rules allow aggregate reporting for qualifying stablecoin sales above a $10,000 annual threshold. Spending a stablecoin that stays at a dollar usually creates little gain, but spending bitcoin or ether through a card can.</p>

<h2>European Union</h2>
<p>MiCA gives the EU the most complete rulebook. Stablecoins pegged to a single currency are e-money tokens, and providers need MiCA authorisation. The European Banking Authority has also said that transferring e-money tokens can be a payment service requiring authorisation under payment services law, with a no-action transition that ended on 1 March 2026. MiCA's own transition for existing crypto firms ended on 1 July 2026. For cardholders, that means EU providers should now be able to point to both kinds of authorisation where they apply. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA rules</a> has more detail.</p>

<h2>Canada and India</h2>
<p><b>Canada.</b> The Stablecoin Act arrived through Bill C-15, which received Royal Assent on 26 March 2026, according to <a href="https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/canada-enacts-framework-to-regulate-stablecoin-in-bill-c15" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DLA Piper</a>. The Bank of Canada supervises issuers, who must hold full reserves, redeem at par and may not pay yield. The framework is expected to come into force in 2027 once regulations are written. A freelancer in Vancouver using a crypto card today is still dealing mostly with provincial securities rules for the platform and the issuing bank's rules for the card.</p>
<p><b>India.</b> India taxes income from virtual digital assets at a flat 30% with 1% tax deducted at source on transfers, and Budget 2026 left both unchanged while adding penalties for failing to file crypto transaction statements, effective from 1 April. A resident using any crypto-linked card should treat each spend of crypto as a taxable transfer and keep records. We take no view on India's broader crypto policy.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Ask who holds your money before you ask what the card costs. The answer decides which regulator you can turn to.</blockquote>

<h2>A short checklist before applying</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Licence.</b> Find the name of the regulator on the provider's website and check it on the regulator's public register.</li>
<li><b>Custody.</b> Confirm whether the card spends from a custodial account held by the provider or from a wallet the user controls.</li>
<li><b>Conversion point.</b> Ask when crypto becomes local currency: at top-up, or at the moment of each purchase.</li>
<li><b>Residency.</b> Many programs are limited to residents of specific countries, and moving abroad can mean the card is closed.</li>
<li><b>Records.</b> Make sure transaction history can be exported for tax filing.</li>
</ul>
<p>These questions are dull, but they are the ones that matter when a provider pauses withdrawals or a regulator changes the rules.</p>

<h2>Fees to check in any country</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Fee type</th><th>Where it hides</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Conversion spread</td><td>The rate used to turn crypto or stablecoins into local currency at the moment of purchase</td></tr>
<tr><td>Foreign exchange markup</td><td>Spending in a currency other than the card's base currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Top-up or load fee</td><td>Moving funds onto the card from a wallet or exchange</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATM and monthly fees</td><td>Cash withdrawals, inactivity or subscription tiers</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Cashback paid in a volatile token can look generous and lose value before it is used. A card with no monthly fee but a wide conversion spread can easily cost more than one with a small subscription, so compare the total cost of a typical month of spending rather than any single headline fee. For travel and freelance use cases, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers/">crypto cards for travellers and freelancers</a>, and for Gulf and Asian rules, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/">stablecoin regulation in Asia and the Gulf</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Regulatory summaries are simplified and current as of October 2026. This article does not recommend any card, exchange or provider, and is not legal, tax or financial advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-uae-uk-usa.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>FX Risk for Small Exporters and Importers: Forwards, Options, 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How small exporters and importers manage currency risk in 2026: forwards, options, natural hedges, invoicing currency and the RBI&#x27;s new hedging rules.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fx-risk-for-small-businesses.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On Friday 9 October 2026 a leather goods exporter in Kanpur with a $200,000 receivable due in December watched the rupee close at 96.73 to the dollar. By the time the market opened on Monday it was 95.75. Nothing about his order, his buyer or his margins had changed, yet the rupee value of that one invoice had fallen by roughly Rs 1.96 lakh over a weekend, because the Reserve Bank of India had rewritten the rules for currency derivatives on Saturday.</p>

<p>That weekend is the best argument we know for treating foreign exchange as an operating risk, not a treasury hobby. Small firms usually have a relationship manager, a habit of converting on the day money arrives, and a hope that the rate will be kind. This guide sets out what the tools actually are, what they cost, and how the rules changed in October 2026.</p>

<h2>Why a weekend can wipe out a margin</h2>

<p>The arithmetic is unforgiving. A garment or leather exporter working on an 8 to 10 percent net margin can lose most of it on a 5 percent currency swing in the wrong direction, and the rupee has moved far more than that. According to a <a href="https://insights.dsij.in/dsijarticledetail/rupee-crisis-rbi-opens-special-dollar-window-tightens-forex-rules-id022-59956" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DSIJ report on the October measures</a>, the rupee was down about 6.6 percent in 2026 and had come close to its all-time low of 96.96 the week before the RBI acted. Brent crude above $100 a barrel kept oil importers buying dollars, and on 7 October the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent, its first hike since February 2023.</p>

<p>For an exporter, a weaker rupee looks like good news, and often it is. The problem is the round trip. A rupee that falls 6 percent can bounce 1 percent in a morning, as it did on 12 October when <a href="https://www.kotakneo.com/news/regulations/usd-inr-in-focus-as-rupee-opens-98-paise-stronger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it opened 98 paise stronger at 95.75</a>. Anyone who priced a contract assuming 97 and left the receivable open learned that volatility cuts both ways. For an importer paying for machinery, components or crude derivatives in dollars, the year has simply been expensive.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$9.6T</b><span>daily global FX turnover, April 2025 (BIS)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>72.6%</b><span>of India's software exports invoiced in USD, 2025-26</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$5M</b><span>new RBI limit for hedging without proof of exposure</span></div></div>

<h2>The market small firms are trading in</h2>

<p>Every three years central banks count the world's currency trading. The <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p250930.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS Triennial Survey published in September 2025</a> found average daily turnover of $9.6 trillion in April 2025, up 28 percent from 2022. The dollar sat on one side of 89 percent of all trades. The euro accounted for 28.9 percent and the yen 16.8 percent.</p>

<p>Two details in the <a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx25_fx.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS statistical release</a> matter for smaller businesses. First, outright forwards, the plain-vanilla hedge that exporters use, grew 60 percent to about $1.8 trillion a day, or 19 percent of turnover. Second, non-financial customers, meaning real businesses rather than banks and funds, made up only 5 percent of turnover, down from 7 percent in 2019. The market is enormous and mostly professional. A small firm's pricing from its bank can be far worse than the screen rate.</p>

<h2>What the RBI changed on 10 October 2026</h2>

<p>India regulates who may hedge and how. Under the January 2024 directions on <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12594" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hedging of foreign exchange risk</a>, effective 5 April 2024, a user could hold up to $100 million of notional hedges across all banks without having to prove the underlying exposure upfront, provided a genuine exposure existed. Retail users had to be shown the mid-market price before booking a derivative, a useful protection that still applies.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63783" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI press release of 10 October 2026</a> tightened this sharply:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Lower threshold.</b> The no-documentation limit for OTC hedges of contracted exposures fell from $100 million to $5 million, across all banks combined. The same $5 million cap now applies to exchange-traded rupee currency derivatives.</li>
<li><b>No rebooking.</b> Once a rupee derivative is cancelled, the bank cannot let the customer rebook it. Rolling over at maturity is still allowed.</li>
<li><b>Single-bank undertaking.</b> Users must sign an undertaking that the same exposure is not hedged with another bank.</li>
<li><b>A 20 percent reserve.</b> For contracts above $2 million where the customer buys foreign currency against rupees to hedge current account flows, banks must park 20 percent of the rupee notional with the RBI as a Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve.</li>
</ul>

<p>The asymmetry is the important part. The reserve targets dollar buyers, which means importers. An exporter selling dollars forward is not caught by it. Bankers quoted by DSIJ estimated that hedging costs for affected contracts could rise by 80 to 150 basis points, depending on how much banks pass through. An importer who used to cancel and rebook forwards to chase a better rate has lost that option entirely.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Most small firms do not lose money on currencies because they hedged badly. They lose it because they never decided anything at all.</blockquote>

<h2>The toolkit, compared</h2>

<p>There are only a handful of real choices. The table sets them out with honest trade-offs.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Tool</th><th>What it does</th><th>Upfront cost</th><th>Best for</th><th>Main catch</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Outright forward</td><td>Locks a rate for a future date</td><td>None; cost sits in the forward rate and bank spread</td><td>Known invoices with firm dates</td><td>No upside if the rate moves your way; cancellation now cannot be rebooked</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bought option</td><td>Sets a floor (exporter) or cap (importer), keeps upside</td><td>Premium paid upfront</td><td>Tenders, uncertain orders, volatile periods</td><td>Premium can be several percent of notional when volatility is high</td></tr>
<tr><td>Natural hedge</td><td>Matches foreign-currency income with foreign-currency costs</td><td>Operational effort only</td><td>Firms that both import inputs and export goods</td><td>Timing and amounts rarely match exactly</td></tr>
<tr><td>Invoice in home currency</td><td>Moves the risk to the buyer</td><td>Often a price concession</td><td>Strong brands, captive buyers</td><td>Buyers in dollar markets frequently refuse</td></tr>
<tr><td>Foreign-currency account (EEFC in India)</td><td>Holds receipts in dollars until needed</td><td>None beyond account fees</td><td>Firms with upcoming dollar payments</td><td>Leaves the balance itself unhedged against rupee terms</td></tr>
<tr><td>Layered hedging</td><td>Hedges in tranches, e.g. 50% at 3 months, 25% at 6</td><td>Mix of the above</td><td>Recurring flows</td><td>Requires a written policy and discipline</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The research on smaller firms is remarkably consistent: they hedge a portion, not all, and the share falls as the horizon lengthens. A <a href="https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2022/01/25/hedging-of-currency-exposures-lessons-for-sme-exporters-and-importers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Duke FinReg blog review</a> of central bank data found New Zealand exporters hedged about 39 percent of foreign-currency export transactions on average, with small firms at 33 percent and large firms at 49 percent. Cover was around 50 percent for the next quarter and below 10 percent two years out. That pattern is sensible: you hedge what you know, and you know the near term best.</p>

<h2>A worked example with rupee numbers</h2>

<p>Take our Kanpur exporter. He has a $200,000 invoice due in 90 days. The figures below use the actual rates from October 2026 for spot and an illustrative forward quote; your bank's quote will differ.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Unhedged on Friday.</b> At the 9 October close of 96.73, the receivable is worth Rs 1,93,46,000.</li>
<li><b>Unhedged on Monday.</b> At 95.75 it is worth Rs 1,91,50,000. The weekend cost him Rs 1,96,000, about 1 percent of the invoice.</li>
<li><b>With a forward.</b> Suppose he books a 90-day forward at an illustrative 96.40. He will receive Rs 1,92,80,000 whatever happens. If the rupee strengthens to 93, he is Rs 6.8 lakh better off than unhedged. If it weakens to 99, he gives up Rs 5.2 lakh of upside.</li>
<li><b>With an option.</b> Suppose instead he buys a dollar put with a 95.50 strike for an illustrative premium of 1 percent, Rs 1.93 lakh. If the rupee goes to 93, he exercises and receives Rs 1,91,00,000 less the premium. If it goes to 99, he lets the option lapse, converts at spot for Rs 1,98,00,000, and nets about Rs 1,96,07,000 after the premium.</li>
<li><b>Layered.</b> Forward half, leave half open. His worst case at 93 is about Rs 1,89,40,000 and his best at 99 is about Rs 1,95,40,000. He has narrowed the range of outcomes to roughly Rs 6 lakh instead of Rs 12 lakh.</li>
</ol>

<p>None of these is right in the abstract. What matters is whether the worst-case number still pays wages and suppliers. If the answer is no, the exposure is too large to leave open. Because he is a dollar seller, the new 20 percent reserve does not apply to his forward, and at $200,000 he is well below the $5 million threshold, though his bank will now ask for the signed undertaking.</p>

<h2>Invoicing currency is a strategic decision</h2>

<p>The cheapest hedge is never taking the risk. India's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63625" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI software exports survey for 2025-26</a>, released in September 2026, shows how rare that is. Of $221.4 billion in software services exports, 72.6 percent was invoiced in dollars, 9.6 percent in euros, 6.0 percent in sterling and just 6.3 percent in rupees. Goods exporters face the same pull: buyers in dollar markets want to pay in dollars, and economists including the authors of a <a href="https://cepr.org/index%2Ephp/voxeu/columns/patterns-invoicing-currency-global-trade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEPR study on invoicing patterns</a> have shown that dollar invoicing has risen even as the US share of world trade has fallen.</p>

<p>Rupee invoicing is now better rewarded by regulation. Under India's new export and import regulations that took effect on 1 October 2026, proceeds must be realised within nine months, or 12 months for exports invoiced in rupees, after a September 2026 amendment reversed the earlier 15-month relaxation. We cover those rules in detail in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/indian-exporters-payments-rules/">getting paid as an Indian exporter</a>. Still, a regulatory nudge does not change a buyer's treasury policy. For most small exporters, the practical question is whether some customers, typically in the Gulf or Southeast Asia, will accept a rupee or local-currency price.</p>

<h2>Natural hedges and the importer's problem</h2>

<p>An exporter who also imports inputs can net the two. A Tiruppur knitwear unit buying synthetic yarn in dollars and selling finished garments in dollars has already offset part of its exposure; a foreign-currency account lets it pay suppliers from export receipts without converting twice. The Duke review notes that German firms are unusually good at this operational matching, and it is the cheapest hedge available.</p>

<p>Pure importers have it hardest in late 2026. They are dollar buyers into a weakening rupee, they now face the 20 percent reserve on hedges over $2 million, and they can no longer cancel and rebook to manage a bad entry point. For them the priorities are simpler: hedge known payables early and in tranches, negotiate longer supplier terms where possible, and ask whether a supplier will accept rupees or a third currency. Freelancers and small service exporters face a smaller version of the same issue, which we explore in our piece on paying and getting paid as a contractor.</p>

<h2>Writing a one-page FX policy</h2>

<p>A small business does not need a treasury manual. It needs one page, agreed by the owner and the accountant, that answers five questions:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>What is our exposure?</b> List foreign-currency receivables and payables by month for the next six months.</li>
<li><b>What is our budget rate?</b> The rate at which each order was priced. Any hedge at or better than this rate protects the margin you already promised yourself.</li>
<li><b>How much do we hedge, and when?</b> For example, 50 to 75 percent of confirmed invoices within 90 days, 25 percent of forecast flows beyond that.</li>
<li><b>Which tools are allowed?</b> Forwards and bought options only; no sold options or structured products that the business does not fully understand.</li>
<li><b>Who decides, and how is it recorded?</b> One named person books hedges; every booking is logged against an invoice.</li>
</ul>

<p>The last point now has regulatory weight in India, because banks must collect undertakings that the same exposure is not hedged elsewhere. A clean record of invoice-to-hedge matching saves time with your bank and with your auditor. For context on how cross-border flows move once they are hedged, see our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">the mid-market rate</a>. This is general information, not advice; check any hedging programme with a qualified adviser and your bank's treasury team.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>16 October 2026:</b> the RBI's higher daily minimum cash reserve requirement, 99 percent of the prescribed amount instead of 90 percent, starts with the new fortnight, tightening rupee liquidity and possibly forward premia.</li>
<li><b>October to December 2026:</b> how far banks pass on the cost of the 20 percent reserve to importers. Watch the quotes on your own forwards against the mid-market rate the RBI requires banks to disclose.</li>
<li><b>The special dollar window:</b> from 12 October the RBI is meeting state oil companies' dollar needs directly. If it is withdrawn, importer demand returns to the market.</li>
<li><b>The RBI's next monetary policy review:</b> after the October hike to 5.50 percent, any further move will feed straight into rupee forward pricing.</li>
<li><b>2028:</b> the next BIS Triennial Survey, which will show whether the 2026 measures reduced the rupee's share of offshore derivatives trading.</li>
</ul>

<p>The rupee may recover or slide further; nobody can tell you which. What a small business can control is how much of its margin depends on the answer. For the wider context of business payments, read our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments in 2026</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fx-risk-for-small-businesses.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Digital Cash in Disaster Relief: Speed, Leakage and What Works</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/disaster-relief-digital-cash/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/disaster-relief-digital-cash/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>How WFP, UN agencies and India&#x27;s DBT system send disaster relief as digital cash, why aid budgets are shrinking, and what evidence says on speed and leakage.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/disaster-relief-digital-cash.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In July 2020, as the monsoon floods in Bangladesh built toward one of their longest peaks in decades, more than 23,000 families received 4,500 taka each on their mobile phones. The money arrived about five days before the water crested. When researchers followed up, those families were 52% less likely to have gone a full day without food during the flood, according to a <a href="https://www.ie.edu/insights/disaster-risk-management/preparedness/case-study-anticipatory-action-and-mobile-money-bangladesh/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">case study of the WFP pilot</a>. They had used the cash to move livestock, store grain and buy food before prices jumped.</p>

<p>That pilot is the cleanest illustration of an argument humanitarians have been making for fifteen years: in a disaster, money that moves digitally and early does more good than goods that move physically and late. The argument has largely been won on evidence. What is new in 2026 is that the money itself is drying up, and the remaining budget has to work harder. This piece looks at what the data says about speed and leakage, how India's benefit-transfer plumbing fits in, and where digital relief still breaks down.</p>

<h2>A shrinking pot, a settled argument</h2>

<p>Cash and voucher assistance, the sector's term for aid given as money rather than goods, totalled US$7.3 billion in 2025, down 11% on the year and 31% below its 2022 peak, according to the <a href="https://alnap.org/help-library/resources/sohs-2026/chapter-2-what-works-and-at-what-cost/2-2-cash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ALNAP State of the Humanitarian System 2026</a>. It was the third straight annual decline. Cash held steady at about 21% of all international humanitarian assistance, which means the fall reflects the overall squeeze on aid rather than a loss of faith in the method.</p>

<p>Part of the drop is mechanical. The very large, highly digitised cash programmes in Ukraine and after the Turkiye-Syria earthquakes wound down. Part is political: some governments in West and Central Africa restricted cash programming, and ALNAP notes that cash is also easier to cut quickly than a warehouse full of food. That last point deserves more attention than it gets. Flexibility cuts both ways. A modality that can be scaled up in days can be scaled down in days too.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$7.3B</b><span>humanitarian cash and vouchers, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>21%</b><span>share of all humanitarian aid</span></div><div class="stat"><b>-31%</b><span>versus the 2022 peak</span></div></div>

<p>The World Food Programme remains the largest single deliverer. It transferred about US$2.2 billion in cash-based assistance in 2024 and reached 124.4 million people with all forms of aid, according to its <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wfp-annual-performance-report-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">annual performance report</a> on ReliefWeb.</p>

<h2>The efficiency case, in rupees</h2>

<p>The strongest evidence on leakage now comes from comparing what share of a budget actually reaches people. A CALP Network study cited by ALNAP looked at US$11.4 billion of spending between 2014 and 2025. Cash and voucher programmes delivered 71% to 77% of their budgets directly to recipients. In-kind food aid delivered 54% to 56%. Overall, cash came out 37.5% more efficient, and larger cash programmes got better with scale while in-kind did not.</p>

<h3>Worked example: a Rs 10 crore relief budget</h3>

<p>Apply those ratios to a district relief allocation of Rs 10 crore. Delivered as cash, somewhere between Rs 7.1 crore and Rs 7.7 crore lands in households' hands. Delivered as food kits, between Rs 5.4 crore and Rs 5.6 crore does. The gap is Rs 1.5 crore to Rs 2.3 crore, or roughly the price of an extra 20,000 to 30,000 families receiving a Rs 7,500 transfer. ALNAP puts the system-wide prize at US$1.1 billion to US$3.3 billion a year if the efficiency levers in the study were applied everywhere.</p>

<p>The caveats matter. The cash advantage shrank in places with heavy security vetting, such as Syria, in high-inflation economies where market checks are costly, and in sudden disasters where no cash system existed beforehand. Cash beats goods when markets work and when a delivery channel is already in place. Where neither is true, it is not automatically better.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The rail is rarely the bottleneck in disaster relief. The list of who is eligible almost always is.</blockquote>

<h2>India's version: DBT meets disaster norms</h2>

<p>India approaches the problem from the other end. Instead of building a humanitarian payment channel and attaching it to a crisis, it has a vast standing benefit-transfer system and plugs disaster payments into it. A report published in April 2025 by a Viksit Bharat senior fellow, summarised by <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/latest/economy/story/dbt-system-delivers-big-rs-348-lakh-crore-saved-subsidy-share-falls-to-9-473240-2025-04-23" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today</a>, estimated that <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">direct benefit transfer</a> saved Rs 3.48 lakh crore between 2009 and 2024 by curbing leakages, with food subsidy reforms accounting for about 53% of that. Treat the precise figure with some care: it is an estimate built on assumptions about what would have leaked, not an audited number.</p>

<p>Speed is where the standing system pays off. In January 2022, Odisha credited Rs 3,000 each to the bank accounts of 32 lakh families for repairs to houses built under state housing schemes, within 15 days of the cabinet decision, as reported by <a href="https://www.orissapost.com/32-lakh-families-get-house-repair-aid-of-rs-3000-each/amp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Orissa Post</a>. That is a scale few humanitarian agencies could match in two weeks, and it worked because the beneficiary list and the bank accounts already existed. The <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data/">Jan Dhan account base</a> is, in effect, disaster infrastructure.</p>

<h3>What a family can actually receive</h3>

<p>The amounts are set by the State Disaster Response Fund norms. The 2022-23 to 2025-26 schedule, published on an <a href="https://kokrajhar.assam.gov.in/sites/default/files/public_utility/Revised%20SDRF%20Norms%20%26%20Assistance.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Assam district portal</a>, lists Rs 4 lakh ex gratia for a death, Rs 1.2 lakh for a fully damaged house in the plains and Rs 1.3 lakh in hilly areas, and Rs 2,500 each for lost clothing and utensils.</p>

<p>Take a farming family in a plains district whose house is destroyed and whose 1.5 hectares of irrigated crop is lost. The norms add up to Rs 1,20,000 for the house, Rs 5,000 for clothing and utensils, and Rs 25,500 in crop input subsidy at Rs 17,000 per hectare. That is Rs 1,50,500 in total. For a household of that kind, the timing of the money matters almost as much as the amount. A crop subsidy that arrives after the next sowing window has passed is a compensation payment, not a recovery tool. Families should check the current norms and eligibility with their district administration, as states can top up these amounts.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Model</th><th>Example</th><th>Delivery channel</th><th>Strength</th><th>Weak point</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Anticipatory cash</td><td>Bangladesh floods, July 2020: 23,000+ families</td><td>Mobile money, 5 days before peak</td><td>Prevents losses rather than compensating them</td><td>Needs reliable forecasts and pre-registered lists</td></tr>
<tr><td>Standing national DBT</td><td>Odisha house repair, Jan 2022: 32 lakh families</td><td>Bank accounts via state systems</td><td>Huge scale within weeks</td><td>Excludes people missing from existing lists</td></tr>
<tr><td>Shock-responsive social protection</td><td>Somalia Baxnaano: 1.2 million people</td><td>National safety-net payments with top-ups</td><td>Base payment already flowing</td><td>Small base transfer of US$20 per month</td></tr>
<tr><td>Emergency humanitarian cash</td><td>Ukraine: US$1.7bn, Feb 2022 to Oct 2023</td><td>Digital transfers, high digital literacy</td><td>Fast where infrastructure is strong</td><td>Hard to replicate in low-connectivity settings</td></tr>
<tr><td>Administrative relief allowance</td><td>Sri Lanka, Cyclone Ditwah, Dec 2025</td><td>District and divisional secretariats</td><td>Simple flat amounts</td><td>Larger tiers stalled on verification</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Where it breaks: verification, not payment</h2>

<p>Sri Lanka's response to Cyclone Ditwah at the end of 2025 shows the pattern clearly. By 30 December, about 87.4% of 450,225 eligible families had received a flat Rs 25,000 relief allowance, according to the Ministry of Defence figures reported by <a href="https://adaderana.lk/news/116588/87-of-eligible-families-have-received-the-rs-25000-relief-allowance-ministry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ada Derana</a>. But only 8.63% of 153,593 families eligible for the larger Rs 50,000 payment had been paid, and under 15% of schoolchildren had received their education grant.</p>

<p>The flat payment needed one check: is this family on the list? The larger tier needed damage assessment. That is the universal shape of disaster finance. Small, flat, early transfers move at the speed of the payment rail. Large, assessed transfers move at the speed of a field officer with a clipboard. Digital tools such as satellite imagery and geotagged photos can speed up assessment, but they introduce their own exclusion risks for informal housing and unregistered land.</p>

<p>The other failure point is the financial system itself. ALNAP records that diaspora money raised for Afghanistan was held up by the banking system and missed the winter it was meant for. In sanctioned or de-banked economies, the fastest rail on paper can be the slowest in practice. This is where some agencies have experimented with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/">purpose-bound</a> and digital-voucher designs, which narrow what money can be spent on in exchange for working in fragile settings.</p>

<h2>Mobile money is the crisis rail in most of the world</h2>

<p>Outside India and a handful of other countries with deep bank-account coverage, the default disaster channel is mobile money. East Africa's <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">mobile money networks</a> and South Asia's wallet providers already reach households that no bank branch serves. Their advantages in a crisis are practical: a phone number is easier to verify remotely than a bank account, agents can cash out in the village, and payments can be sent in batches to tens of thousands of numbers in an afternoon.</p>

<p>The limits are just as practical. Floods knock out cell towers and power. Agent networks run out of physical cash when everyone withdraws on the same day. And women in many households have less access to a phone in their own name, which affects who controls the transfer. Programmes that work well tend to pre-register recipients, pre-position agent liquidity and build in a fallback to physical distribution if networks fail.</p>

<h2>Our view on what actually matters</h2>

<p>We think the debate about cash versus in-kind is over, and the debate about digital versus physical cash is mostly over too. The open questions are about lists and timing. Who is on the list before the disaster? Can the trigger fire before the damage, as in the Bangladesh pilot? Can a national safety net, like <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/g2p-payments-around-the-world/">government-to-person payment systems</a> elsewhere, absorb emergency top-ups without new paperwork?</p>

<p>India is unusually well placed on the first and third questions because of its benefit-transfer base. It is less advanced on the second. Anticipatory payments tied to forecasts, such as a cyclone track or a river gauge reading, are still rare in Indian state practice, even though the payment plumbing to deliver them already exists. That is the gap worth closing.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>October to December 2026:</b> the northeast monsoon and the Bay of Bengal cyclone season, the next real-world test for state relief payments in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.</li>
<li><b>2026-27:</b> the first full year of disaster-fund allocations under the Sixteenth Finance Commission period, after the 2022-26 SDRF norms cycle ended in March 2026. Watch whether the revised schedule raises the Rs 1.2 lakh house assistance figure.</li>
<li><b>Early December 2026:</b> the UN's annual Global Humanitarian Overview for 2027, which will show whether cash funding falls for a fourth year from US$7.3 billion.</li>
<li><b>30 November 2026:</b> the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, after which agencies typically publish speed-of-payment reviews for Caribbean and Central American responses.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/disaster-relief-digital-cash.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top Crypto Companies 2026: Largest by Revenue, Profit, Users</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/top-crypto-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/top-crypto-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The top crypto companies in 2026 ranked by measurable criteria: Tether, Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Circle, Robinhood and leaders in India, UAE and Europe.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/top-crypto-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In January 2026 an accounting firm in a routine attestation confirmed that a single stablecoin issuer earned more than $10 billion of net profit in 2025. That company was Tether, issuer of the world's largest stablecoin, and the figure put it ahead of Coinbase, Robinhood and Kraken combined. The biggest crypto companies in 2026 are not the ones with the loudest marketing or the highest trading volume. They are the ones sitting on reserves, custody balances and licences, and the numbers show a sector whose profits are moving from trading fees toward interest income and infrastructure.</p>

<h2>How we chose the top crypto companies</h2>
<p>We ranked companies only by stated, measurable criteria as of October 2026: 2025 revenue, 2025 net profit, registered or funded users, and assets on platform or in circulation, as reported by company filings, attestations or established crypto and financial media. Where a company does not publish full financials, we describe it with the figures it does disclose. We grouped companies by type rather than giving a single 1-to-10 order, because an exchange, a stablecoin issuer and a broker earn money in very different ways.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$10B+</b><span>Tether net profit, 2025 (BDO attestation)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$7.18B</b><span>Coinbase revenue, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>300M+</b><span>Binance registered users, Dec 2025</span></div></div>
<p>Coverage spans the US, Europe, India and the UAE. Our list of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/">stablecoin companies to watch</a> goes deeper on issuers.</p>

<h2>Which is the most profitable crypto company in 2026?</h2>
<p>Tether is the most profitable crypto company by reported net profit. It earned more than $10 billion in 2025, according to an attestation by BDO, down from more than $13 billion in 2024. That compares with $1.26 billion for Coinbase and $1.9 billion for Robinhood as a whole, making the stablecoin issuer by far the sector's largest earner.</p>
<h3>Tether</h3>
<p>Tether issues USDT, the largest stablecoin. At the end of 2025 it had more than $186 billion of USDT in circulation backed by $193 billion of assets, including about $122 billion of US Treasuries and roughly 140 tonnes of gold, with $6.3 billion of excess reserves, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/387908/tether-rakes-10-billion-net-profit-2025-excess-reserves-6-3-billion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. As of October 2026 USDT stands at about $184 billion, roughly 60% of a $306 billion stablecoin market, per DefiLlama. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT and USDC</a> explains the difference in structure.</p>
<h3>Circle</h3>
<p>Circle, which issues USDC and went public in 2025, reported second-quarter 2026 revenue and reserve income of $701 million, up 7%, and net income from continuing operations of $48 million, according to its <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results release</a>. USDC in circulation was $73.3 billion at the end of June, up 19%, with $14.8 trillion of onchain transaction volume in the quarter. For the full year 2025, Circle reported $2.7 billion of revenue and reserve income, up 64%, and a $70 million net loss from continuing operations driven by IPO-related stock compensation, per its <a href="https://www.circle.com/en/pressroom/circle-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fourth-quarter release</a>. Its margins are thinner than Tether's because it pays a large share of reserve income to distribution partners. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/">Circle's IPO</a> covers that arrangement.</p>

<h2>Which is the largest crypto company by revenue?</h2>
<p>Coinbase is the largest crypto company by reported revenue, with $7.18 billion in 2025 and net income of $1.26 billion. Kraken reported more than $2.2 billion of 2025 revenue. Robinhood earned $4.5 billion across its whole business, though crypto is only one part of it. Binance does not publish audited group revenue, so it cannot be ranked on this measure.</p>
<h3>Coinbase</h3>
<p>Coinbase is the largest US-listed crypto exchange. It reported 2025 revenue of $7.18 billion, including $2.83 billion of subscription and services revenue, and net income of $1.26 billion, despite a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million tied to falling crypto prices, according to <a href="https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/1466787-coinbase-profit-hits-1-26b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Traders Union's summary of its results</a>. The downturn continued into 2026: <a href="https://qz.com/coinbase-earnings-miss-q2-2026-net-loss-073126" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quartz reported</a> second-quarter revenue of about $1.2 billion and a net loss of $359.5 million. Coinbase also took a minority stake in India's CoinDCX in October 2025.</p>
<h3>Kraken</h3>
<p>Kraken, owned by Payward, reported 2025 revenue up 33% to more than $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $530.6 million, 5.7 million funded accounts and $48.2 billion of assets on platform, according to <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/krakens-2025-revenue-soared-to-22-billion-as-it-prepares-for-an-ipo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Magnates</a>. An $800 million raise valued it at $20 billion. In the second quarter of 2026 adjusted revenue was $508 million, up 17%, but Payward is not expected to list before the second quarter of 2027, per Crowdfund Insider. CB Insights recorded Payward buying derivatives exchange Bitnomial for $550 million and card issuer Reap for up to $600 million during the quarter.</p>
<h3>Robinhood</h3>
<p>Robinhood is a broker rather than a pure crypto company, but it is one of the largest retail crypto venues in the US and, through Bitstamp, in Europe. It reported record 2025 net revenue of $4.5 billion and net income of $1.9 billion, with 27 million funded customers. Crypto revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 was $221 million, down 38%, on $82 billion of notional volume, of which $48 billion ran through Bitstamp, according to its <a href="https://investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investor release</a>.</p>

<h2>Which crypto exchange has the most users?</h2>
<p>Binance has the most users of any crypto exchange, with more than 300 million registered users and over $125 trillion of cumulative trading volume as of December 2025. It is followed at a distance by regional platforms such as India's CoinDCX, with 20.4 million users, and Europe's Bitpanda, with about 30 million customers. Registered users overstate active ones everywhere.</p>
<h3>Binance</h3>
<p>Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange by users. In December 2025 it received full authorisation from Abu Dhabi Global Market for three entities covering exchange, clearing and custody, and broker-dealer activity, starting operations on 5 January 2026, as <a href="https://www.agbi.com/tech/2025/12/binance-gets-full-regulatory-status-from-abu-dhabi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AGBI reported</a>. It cited more than 300 million registered users. The ADGM licence gives the group a single primary regulator for its global platform for the first time.</p>
<h3>Bybit</h3>
<p>Bybit, which holds UAE licences, describes itself as the world's second-largest exchange by trading volume. In October 2025 it became the first crypto exchange to receive a full Virtual Asset Platform Operator licence from the UAE's federal Securities and Commodities Authority, eight months after in-principle approval. It does not publish audited financials, so we list it on licences and scale claims only. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm/">UAE crypto regulation guide</a> explains how SCA, VARA and ADGM licences differ.</p>
<h3>Hyperliquid</h3>
<p>Hyperliquid is a decentralised exchange for perpetual futures. Forbes named it to its 2026 Fintech 50 in February 2026, one of five crypto companies on the list, and it is the largest venue for onchain perpetual futures by trading volume. It does not publish audited accounts, so we do not rank it on revenue. It is the clearest sign that a meaningful share of crypto trading revenue is moving onchain.</p>

<h2>Which crypto companies lead in India and Europe?</h2>
<p>In India, CoinDCX is the largest crypto platform with disclosed figures in 2026: 20.4 million users and $141 million of annualised revenue at a $2.45 billion valuation in October 2025. WazirX is rebuilding after a $234 million hack. In Europe, Vienna-based Bitpanda serves about 30 million customers and put a planned Frankfurt listing on hold in September 2026.</p>
<h3>CoinDCX</h3>
<p>CoinDCX, founded in 2018, received investment from Coinbase in October 2025 at a $2.45 billion post-money valuation, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/374683/coinbase-invests-coindcx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. As of July 2025 it reported over 20.4 million users, $165 billion of annualised transaction volume, over $1.2 billion of assets under custody and $141 million of annualised revenue. The same month it lost $44 million in an exploit that began with malware planted on an engineer's laptop. India's competition regulator cleared the Coinbase stake in December 2025. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-crypto-regulation-2026/">India crypto regulation</a> explainer sets out the tax and compliance rules these platforms operate under.</p>
<h3>WazirX</h3>
<p>WazirX was once India's best-known exchange. A July 2024 breach drained about $234 million and affected roughly 4.3 million users. In October 2025 Singapore's High Court sanctioned its restructuring scheme after 95.7% of creditors voted in favour, and the company said it would restart operations within ten business days of the scheme taking effect, working with custodian BitGo, as <a href="https://inc42.com/buzz/singapore-hc-approves-wazirxs-restructuring-plan-after-234-mn-hack/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inc42 reported</a>.</p>
<h3>Bitpanda</h3>
<p>Bitpanda, founded in Vienna in 2014, operates across Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Italy and France and recently entered the UK. In January 2026 Bloomberg reported it was preparing a Frankfurt listing at a valuation of €4 billion to €5 billion with about 30 million customers, per The Block. In September 2026 it paused the listing, citing market conditions, and said its chief executive would step down in the first quarter of 2027, as <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/exchange/bitpanda-ceo-to-depart-as-crypto-broker-delays-frankfurt-ipo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Magnates reported</a>.</p>

<h2>Which institutional crypto firms matter?</h2>
<p>Galaxy is a US-listed institutional crypto firm with $12 billion of assets on platform at the end of 2025. It posted a 2025 net loss of $241 million as crypto prices fell, but its trading and asset management arm earned record adjusted gross profit.</p>
<h3>Galaxy</h3>
<p>Galaxy runs trading, lending, asset management and a fast-growing data centre business. For 2025 it reported a net loss of $241 million, record digital-asset adjusted gross profit of $505 million, total equity of $3.0 billion and $2.6 billion of cash and stablecoins, according to its <a href="https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results release</a>. Its Helios campus in Texas has over 1.6 gigawatts of approved power, with CoreWeave contracted for 526 megawatts of critical IT load, a pivot that makes it partly an AI infrastructure company.</p>

<h2>How do the biggest crypto companies compare?</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Tether</td><td>El Salvador</td><td>USDT stablecoin issuer</td><td>$10B+ net profit, 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Coinbase</td><td>US</td><td>Exchange, custody, USDC partner</td><td>$7.18B revenue, 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Robinhood</td><td>US</td><td>Broker with crypto and Bitstamp</td><td>$4.5B revenue, 2025 (whole firm)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Kraken</td><td>US</td><td>Exchange and brokerage</td><td>$2.2B+ revenue, 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hyperliquid</td><td>Onchain</td><td>Decentralised perpetuals exchange</td><td>Forbes Fintech 50, Feb 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Circle</td><td>US</td><td>USDC stablecoin issuer</td><td>$701M revenue, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Binance</td><td>Multi-jurisdiction; ADGM-licensed</td><td>Exchange</td><td>300M+ registered users, Dec 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Galaxy</td><td>US</td><td>Institutional trading, data centres</td><td>$12B assets on platform, end-2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bitpanda</td><td>Austria</td><td>Retail investing platform</td><td>~30M customers, Jan 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>CoinDCX</td><td>India</td><td>Exchange</td><td>$2.45B valuation, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bybit</td><td>Multi-jurisdiction; SCA-licensed</td><td>Exchange</td><td>SCA full licence, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>WazirX</td><td>India</td><td>Exchange in restructuring</td><td>Scheme sanctioned, Oct 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: why a stablecoin issuer out-earns an exchange</h2>
<p>The profit gap between issuers and exchanges comes down to arithmetic. Circle's second-quarter 2026 figures make it visible.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Reserve income:</b> $668 million in the quarter, while USDC in circulation moved between about $77 billion at the end of March and $73.3 billion at the end of June. On a rough $75 billion average, each $100 of USDC earned Circle about $3.50 annualised.</li>
<li><b>After distribution:</b> revenue less distribution costs was $289 million, a 41% margin. So of that $3.50, roughly $1.44 stayed with Circle and the rest went to partners such as exchanges.</li>
<li><b>Tether by comparison:</b> it reported more than $10 billion of 2025 profit on roughly $186 billion of USDT at year end. That is above $5 of profit per $100 of tokens, helped by gold and other investment gains on top of interest income.</li>
<li><b>Coinbase by comparison:</b> $1.26 billion of net income on $7.18 billion of revenue in 2025 is a 17.5% net margin, and trading revenue falls sharply when prices do, as the second quarter of 2026 showed.</li>
</ol>
<blockquote class="pull">Exchanges earn when people trade; issuers earn when people simply hold, and holding has proved the steadier business.</blockquote>
<p>The flip side is rate sensitivity. If short-term US rates fall by one percentage point, an issuer's income on each $100 of reserves falls by about $1, which is why issuers are racing to add payments and other fee income. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> covers that shift.</p>

<h2>What should you watch next among crypto companies?</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Q3 2026 earnings season.</b> Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle and Galaxy report third-quarter results over the coming weeks, the first full read on whether the 2026 trading slump has bottomed.</li>
<li><b>Kraken's IPO, not before Q2 2027.</b> Payward has filed confidentially with the SEC; timing depends on market conditions.</li>
<li><b>Bitpanda's listing.</b> A Frankfurt IPO at €4 billion to €5 billion was planned for the first half of 2026 but paused in September; the company says it remains on the agenda, with a CEO handover due in the first quarter of 2027.</li>
<li><b>Mastercard's BVNK deal, by end-2026.</b> A completed acquisition would mark a card network directly owning stablecoin infrastructure.</li>
<li><b>WazirX distributions.</b> Creditor token distributions follow the scheme taking legal effect and will be watched closely in India.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company or token. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources; private and offshore firms are not audited to public-company standards. Readers should check with a qualified adviser before making any investment decision.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/top-crypto-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top African Fintech Companies in 2026: Nigeria to Kenya</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The leading African fintech companies in 2026, from M-Pesa, OPay and Moniepoint to Wave, Tyme and Yellow Card, with dated users, valuations and funding.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/africa-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A pharmacist in Abidjan's Treichville market pays her wholesaler from her phone at the end of each week. The transfer costs her a flat 1%, and taking cash out at an agent costs nothing. Older telecom wallets charged several times that. That gap, between what African money used to cost and what a handful of companies now charge, is where most of the continent's fintech value has been built. It is also why the list of companies that matter in 2026 looks very different from the list of companies that raised the most in 2021.</p>

<p><b>How we chose.</b> This is a list of 13 African fintech companies grouped by what they do rather than ranked one to thirteen. We looked at scale (users, transaction value, revenue), growth, licences held, funding and valuation, and product breadth, using figures each company or its investors disclosed, as of October 2026. Where no recent number is verifiable, we say so. Global card networks and banks are left out.</p>

<h2>How much money went into African fintech in 2025?</h2>
<p>African tech companies raised about $4.1 billion in 2025, up 25% on 2024, according to Partech Africa, with fintech taking $769 million of the $2.4 billion in equity. Briter's separate count put total disclosed funding at $3.8 billion, up 32%, with fintech again the most funded sector. The headline story of 2025 was debt, not equity: lenders, not venture funds, financed the biggest growth.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$4.1B</b><span>African tech funding, 2025 (Partech)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.6B</b><span>record debt funding, 2025 (Partech)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.04B</b><span>raised by Kenya, ranked first (Partech)</span></div></div>

<p>The <a href="https://partechpartners.com/news/2025-partech-africa-tech-vc-report-african-tech-funding-rebounds-to-us41b-driven-by-record-debt-activity-and-disciplined-equity-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Partech Africa Tech VC report</a> counted 570 transactions, with debt rising 63% to a record $1.6 billion and making up 41% of all capital deployed, up from 31% a year earlier. Fintech's slice of equity shrank as cleantech, health and enterprise software grew; investors are no longer writing payments cheques on growth alone.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.briter.co/insights/reports/africa-investment-report-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Briter's Africa Investment Report 2025</a> split the money by country: South Africa took 32% of funding, Kenya 29%, Egypt 15% and Nigeria just 8%. Nigeria had its lowest share since 2019 but the largest number of deals. Nigerian fintech is still the busiest market on the continent, but its rounds have got smaller in dollar terms. Kenya, by Partech's count, led the continent with $1.04 billion and four of the year's nine megadeals.</p>

<h2>Which mobile money companies lead African fintech in 2026?</h2>
<p>Mobile money remains the largest part of African fintech in 2026. M-Pesa, run by Safaricom in Kenya and Ethiopia and by Vodacom elsewhere, is the biggest by users and value moved, and Wave is the fastest-growing challenger in francophone West Africa. For the history, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">guide to M-Pesa and mobile money</a>.</p>

<h3>M-Pesa (Safaricom, Kenya)</h3>
<p>Safaricom's results for the year to 31 March 2026 put active M-Pesa users in Kenya at 43.69 million, up 18%, and M-Pesa revenue at Ksh 182.73 billion, up 13.4%, according to <a href="https://hapakenya.com/2026/05/07/safaricom-hits-historic-ksh-118-4b-net-profit-as-kenya-core-business-surges/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HapaKenya's breakdown of the results</a>. M-Pesa now earns 45.6% of Safaricom's Kenya service revenue, which makes the telco as much a payments company as a phone company. In Ethiopia, M-Pesa reached 5.2 million 90-day customers, more than double a year earlier.</p>

<h3>M-Pesa (Vodacom Group)</h3>
<p>Vodacom, a major shareholder in Safaricom, reported 103.0 million financial services customers for the year to 31 March 2026, a figure that counts Safaricom on a 100% basis, and said the transaction value it processed reached $525.6 billion, up 16.6%, according to its <a href="https://vodacom.com/pdf/sens/2026/vodacom-group-reviewed-annual-results-and-cash-dividend-distribution-for-the-year-ended-31-march-2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY2026 results announcement</a>. Because Safaricom is included, these group numbers should not be added to the Kenyan figures above. Its other markets include Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho and Egypt.</p>

<h3>Wave (Senegal)</h3>
<p>Wave built its business on a flat 1% transfer fee and free cash-in and cash-out, undercutting telecom wallets that charged 5% to 10%. In June 2025 it raised about $137 million (EUR 117 million) in debt led by Rand Merchant Bank, with British International Investment, Norfund and Finnfund, as <a href="https://launchbaseafrica.com/2025/06/30/fintech-unicorn-wave-secures-137-million-in-debt-funding-to-power-pan-african-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Launch Base Africa reported</a>. At the time it had more than 20 million monthly active users, about 150,000 agents and operations in eight countries. Its last disclosed valuation was $1.7 billion, set in 2021.</p>

<h2>Who are the biggest fintech companies in Nigeria in 2026?</h2>
<p>Nigeria's largest fintech companies in 2026 are OPay and Moniepoint by users and transaction value, with Paystack and Flutterwave leading merchant payments. OPay processed $358 billion in 2025 and is preparing a New York listing; Moniepoint says it handles more than $250 billion a year. Nigeria has the most fintech deals in Africa even though its share of funding has fallen.</p>

<h3>OPay</h3>
<p>OPay is the largest consumer fintech in Nigeria by the numbers it has disclosed. Its gross transaction value more than doubled to $358 billion in 2025, monthly active users rose 57% to 39.3 million, and revenue grew 161% to $536.3 million, according to <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2026/08/13/opay-transactions-more-than-double-to-358-billion-as-ipo-nears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nairametrics</a>. It turned an operating profit of $107.1 million. Nigeria supplied 88.1% of revenue, with Indonesia and Egypt making up most of the rest. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan are managing a planned NYSE listing at a targeted valuation of about $4 billion.</p>

<h3>Moniepoint</h3>
<p>Moniepoint's products range from handheld point-of-sale devices for cash deposits, withdrawals and card payments to a personal banking app. In October 2025 it raised $90 million to complete a $200 million Series C at a valuation of about $1 billion, <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/10/24/2025/nigerias-moniepoint-raises-90m-in-venture-funding" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Semafor reported</a>. It says it serves more than 10 million businesses and individuals and processes more than $250 billion a year. In April 2025 it launched UK-to-Nigeria remittances, its first step outside domestic payments.</p>

<h3>Paystack</h3>
<p>Paystack, bought by Stripe in 2020 for $200 million, serves about 300,000 businesses, mostly in Nigeria. In early 2026 it took over Ladder Microfinance Bank, giving a sister company, Paystack MFB, its own banking licence, according to <a href="https://launchbaseafrica.com/2026/01/14/a-bank-of-its-own-will-paystacks-mfb-licence-solve-its-growth-ceiling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Launch Base Africa</a>. The move followed a reported N250 million Central Bank of Nigeria fine over its Zap transfer app, which regulators said had gone beyond its deposit-taking permissions. Bank transfers made up 66% of its Nigerian volume in 2024.</p>

<h3>Flutterwave</h3>
<p>Flutterwave is one of the most widely used pan-African payment processors for merchants selling across borders. Founder Olugbenga Agboola wrote in June 2026 that it had passed 1 billion transactions and more than $40 billion in payments since inception, and had won new licences in Senegal, Zambia and Cameroon during the year, per <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2026/06/01/flutterwave-surpasses-1-billion-transactions-processes-over-40-billion-in-payments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nairametrics</a>. In January 2026 it bought the Nigerian open-banking start-up Mono in an all-stock deal, adding bank-data access and account-to-account payments.</p>

<h2>Which digital banks and lenders are scaling outside Nigeria and Kenya?</h2>
<p>Outside Nigeria and Kenya, the fastest-scaling African fintechs in 2026 are digital banks and lenders in South Africa and Egypt. Tyme Group, which runs GoTyme Bank in South Africa and the Philippines, reached a $1.5 billion valuation after Nubank led its Series D, and Egypt's MNT-Halan was valued at $1.4 billion in a June 2026 round led by Al Ahly Capital.</p>

<h3>GoTyme Bank (Tyme Group, South Africa)</h3>
<p>Tyme Group raised a $250 million Series D in December 2024 at a $1.5 billion valuation, with Brazil's Nubank putting in $150 million, according to <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/tyme-group-achieves-unicorn-status-with-250m-series-d-led-by-nubank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. That remains its latest disclosed valuation. In April 2026 the South African Reserve Bank published the renaming of TymeBank as GoTyme Bank, matching its Philippine sister bank, and the group then had more than 15 million customers, over 10 million of them in South Africa, <a href="https://www.financialafrik.com/en/2026/04/13/south-africa-tymebank-completes-its-rebranding/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Afrik reported</a>. It is one of the few African digital bank models running at scale in Asia.</p>

<h3>MNT-Halan (Egypt)</h3>
<p>MNT-Halan combines consumer and small-business lending with payments. Its latest round, led by Al Ahly Capital, the investment arm of the National Bank of Egypt, valued it at $1.4 billion at first close in June 2026, <a href="https://www.wamda.com/2026/06/mnt-halan-reaches-1-4-billion-valuation-investment-round-led-al-ahly-capital" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wamda reported</a>. It also operates in Turkiye and entered the UAE in 2024.</p>

<h2>Who builds Africa's cross-border and stablecoin payment rails?</h2>
<p>Africa's cross-border rails in 2026 are built by a small group: Onafriq connects mobile wallets and bank accounts across borders, LemFi serves the diaspora sending money home, and Yellow Card runs a licensed stablecoin on- and off-ramp. Chipper Cash spans app-based transfers and newer stablecoin integrations.</p>

<h3>Onafriq</h3>
<p>Onafriq runs the plumbing that lets a wallet in one country pay a wallet or bank account in another. When it marked 15 years in June 2025 it said its network could reach 961 million registered mobile wallets and 464 million bank accounts across more than 2,000 corridors, per <a href="https://hapakenya.com/2025/06/05/onafriq-celebrates-15-years-with-1b-connected-mobile-wallets-500-million-bank-accounts-in-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HapaKenya</a>.</p>

<h3>LemFi</h3>
<p>LemFi, based in London, serves African and Asian migrants sending money home. Its $53 million Series B in January 2025 was led by Highland Europe, and it reported about $1 billion in monthly payment volume and 1 million active users, according to <a href="https://thecondia.com/lemfi-series-b-53-million/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Condia</a>. It operated in 27 send-from markets and 20 receiving countries and was buying a licensed Irish firm to passport across the EU.</p>

<h3>Yellow Card</h3>
<p>Yellow Card is one of the longest-running stablecoin on- and off-ramps on the continent. It received a crypto asset service provider licence in South Africa in late 2024, had raised $33 million, and said it had processed more than $3 billion since 2016 across 20 African countries, per <a href="https://techcabal.com/2024/11/20/yellow-card-secures-license-in-south-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechCabal</a>.</p>

<h3>Chipper Cash</h3>
<p>Chipper Cash, a cross-border transfer app that raised a $100 million Series C during the last funding boom, said in December 2025 that it had seven million customers across nine African countries, when it announced a partnership to run stablecoin payments over Stable, a USDT-focused blockchain, per its <a href="https://www.chippercash.com/blog/stable-partnership" target="_blank" rel="noopener">own announcement</a>. It was also among the wallets that integrated PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin on the Stellar network in September 2025, per the <a href="https://stellar.org/press/paypal-pyusd-is-now-available-on-stellar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stellar Development Foundation</a>.</p>

<h2>How do Africa's leading fintech companies compare?</h2>
<p>Compared side by side in 2026, OPay and M-Pesa lead on users and transaction value, Moniepoint and OPay lead Nigeria, and Tyme and MNT-Halan carry the highest disclosed valuations outside Nigeria. Metrics differ between companies, so read across rows with care.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>M-Pesa (Safaricom)</td><td>Kenya</td><td>Mobile money</td><td>43.69M active users, FY to Mar 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>M-Pesa (Vodacom)</td><td>South Africa</td><td>Mobile money, group</td><td>103.0M financial services customers incl. Safaricom; $525.6B processed, FY to Mar 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>OPay</td><td>Nigeria</td><td>Wallet, payments, loans</td><td>$358B GTV, 39.3M MAU, 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Moniepoint</td><td>Nigeria</td><td>POS, business and personal banking</td><td>~$1B valuation, Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Paystack</td><td>Nigeria</td><td>Merchant payments</td><td>~300,000 businesses, Jan 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Flutterwave</td><td>Nigeria / US</td><td>Payments processing</td><td>$40B+ processed since launch, Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wave</td><td>Senegal</td><td>Mobile money</td><td>20M+ MAU, Jun 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tyme Group</td><td>South Africa</td><td>Digital bank (GoTyme)</td><td>15M+ customers, Apr 2026; $1.5B valuation, Dec 2024</td></tr>
<tr><td>MNT-Halan</td><td>Egypt</td><td>Lending, payments</td><td>$1.4B valuation, Jun 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Onafriq</td><td>Pan-African</td><td>Cross-border wallet hub</td><td>961M wallets reachable, Jun 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>LemFi</td><td>UK</td><td>Diaspora remittance</td><td>~$1B monthly volume, Jan 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Yellow Card</td><td>Pan-African</td><td>Stablecoin on/off-ramp</td><td>$3B+ processed since 2016, Nov 2024</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>A worked example shows why scale alone is not the full story. Divide Safaricom's M-Pesa revenue of Ksh 182.73 billion by 43.69 million active users and each user generated about Ksh 4,182 in the year. Do the same for OPay, $536.3 million over 39.3 million monthly users, and the figure is about $13.65 per user. Wave's model sits at the other end: on a transfer equal to $100, its 1% fee is $1, against the $5 to $10 that the same transfer cost on older telecom wallets. Cheap transfers win users; lending, merchant fees and float are what pay the bills. Hence OPay's 285% jump in new loans in 2025.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">In African fintech the transfer is the hook. The licence and the loan book are the business.</blockquote>

<h2>What does this mean for Nigeria and Kenya?</h2>
<p>For Nigeria and Kenya in 2026, the lesson is that the leaders are profitable incumbents rather than fresh start-ups. Both markets are led by companies that moved from payments into lending and banking.</p>
<p>In Kenya, a fintech either plugs into M-Pesa or targets a niche it ignores, and the sharpest growth is now in Ethiopia. For how these systems connect, see our report on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/payments-in-africa-2026/">payments in Africa in 2026</a>.</p>
<p>In Nigeria, the regulator is the swing factor. Paystack's fine over Zap, the push by fintechs to buy microfinance banks and Yellow Card's wait for an SEC decision all point the same way: the Central Bank of Nigeria and the SEC want fintechs inside the regulatory perimeter, holding licences that match what they actually do. Diaspora flows matter too: Moniepoint's UK corridor and LemFi target the same money that our analysis of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/">the cost of sending money to Africa</a> shows is still among the most expensive in the world to move.</p>

<h2>What to watch next in African fintech</h2>
<p>The next six months will test whether African fintech can reach public markets. OPay's planned NYSE listing, MNT-Halan's second close and Partech's 2026 report, due in early 2027, are the dates that matter. Stablecoin licensing in Nigeria and South Africa will decide how quickly dollar balances spread inside African apps.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>OPay's listing, expected later in 2026.</b> A successful float near the reported $4 billion target would be one of the largest African fintech listings to date and could reset valuations for Moniepoint and others.</li>
<li><b>MNT-Halan's second closing.</b> Still pending as of June 2026; its size will show how much Gulf and Egyptian bank capital is willing to back fintech lending.</li>
<li><b>Partech's 2026 report, likely January 2027.</b> The key number is whether debt keeps growing as a share of capital. If it does, expect more fintechs to look like lenders.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin rules.</b> Yellow Card's Nigerian application and further South African CASP licences will decide whether stablecoin balances stay a niche or become a standard feature. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-companies-to-watch-2026/">stablecoin companies to watch</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026/">fintech start-ups to watch</a> lists track the wider field.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may use different definitions of users and volume.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/africa-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>USDT vs USDC in 2026: How the Two Biggest Stablecoins Really Compare</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>USDT and USDC hold over four-fifths of all stablecoins. How the two differ on reserves, regulation, blockchains and where each can be used in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usdt-vs-usdc.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">If stablecoins were airlines, USDT and USDC would be the two carriers that fly almost every route. Together they make up a little more than four-fifths of every stablecoin in existence. Most people pick one by accident, usually whichever their exchange or a friend happened to use. It's worth five minutes to understand the difference.</p>

<h2>The quick facts</h2>
<table class="cmp">
  <thead><tr><th></th><th>USDT (Tether)</th><th>USDC (Circle)</th></tr></thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr><td>Size, October 2026</td><td>about $184B</td><td>about $73B</td></tr>
    <tr><td>Share of all stablecoins</td><td>~60%</td><td>roughly a quarter</td></tr>
    <tr><td>Where it's strongest</td><td>Emerging markets, Tron, exchanges</td><td>US and Europe, regulated fintechs, Base and Solana</td></tr>
    <tr><td>EU status under MiCA</td><td>Not authorised; restricted on major EU exchanges since July 2026</td><td>Authorised e-money token via a French licence</td></tr>
    <tr><td>US regulated sibling</td><td>USAT, launched Jan 2026 with Anchorage Digital</td><td>USDC itself, issued from the US</td></tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<h2>USDT: the people's dollar</h2>
<p>Tether is the older and much bigger of the two, and it won on reach. Walk into a mobile-money kiosk in Lagos, a phone shop in Istanbul or a trading group in Manila and "USDT" is simply what a digital dollar is called. A huge share of it lives on Tron, a blockchain that's cheap and fast enough for everyday transfers; over 97% of the stablecoins on Tron are USDT.</p>
<p>Its weak spot has always been transparency and regulation. Tether publishes reserve attestations, but it has historically kept its distance from the strictest regulators. That choice caught up with it in Europe: when MiCA's transition period ended on 1 July 2026, the big EU exchanges restricted USDT trading for European users.</p>
<p>Tether's answer for the US market was a separate coin, USAT, issued through a federally chartered bank partner and built for the GENIUS Act. That's a clever move. It also means there are now effectively two Tethers: a global one and an American one.</p>

<h2>USDC: the regulator's dollar</h2>
<p>Circle took the opposite route. It chased licences early, publishes detailed reserve reports and positioned USDC as the stablecoin that banks, payment companies and auditors can sign off on. When MiCA arrived, USDC was ready, authorised through Circle's e-money licence in France.</p>
<p>That makes USDC the default for regulated businesses, especially in the US and Europe, and for newer, low-cost blockchains like Base and Solana. On Base, about 90% of stablecoins are USDC.</p>
<p>The trade-off is reach. In many corridors where people actually send money home, USDT is still the coin that local exchanges quote and local agents accept.</p>

<h2>Which one is "safer"?</h2>
<p>Honestly, for most people spending or sending modest amounts, the difference in day-to-day risk is small. Both have kept their dollar peg through some rough markets. The difference is more about where you can use it and who will accept it without questions.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>For people who live or bank in the EU or US</b>, or who deal mainly with regulated partners, USDC tends to be the more widely accepted coin.</li>
  <li><b>In markets across Asia, Africa and Latin America</b>, USDT often has deeper local liquidity, which can mean a better rate at the other end.</li>
  <li><b>For businesses</b>, it's increasingly normal to hold both and route each payment through whichever gives the better final rate.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">The coin matters less than the last mile. What counts is how many rupees, pesos or naira land at the other end.</blockquote>

<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>For a while it looked like this would be a winner-takes-all fight. It isn't. USDT and USDC are settling into two roles that fit together: one is the street dollar of emerging markets, the other is the compliance-ready dollar of regulated finance. For the person sending money, the choice of coin increasingly happens out of sight: the provider picks whichever route delivers more at the other end and shows the final amount before the transfer is confirmed.</p>
<p>That is how it should be. Which digital dollar moved underneath should be the provider's problem, not the customer's.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usdt-vs-usdc.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>US and Canada to India Remittances 2026: The 1% Tax, Costs and Student Flows</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-canada-to-india-remittance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-canada-to-india-remittance/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>US and Canada to India remittances in 2026: corridor size, who pays the new 1% US remittance tax, World Bank costs from both countries and the student effect.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usa-canada-to-india-remittance.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A cardiologist in Houston sends $3,000 to his parents in Hyderabad every quarter from his checking account, and the new US remittance tax does not touch him. A construction worker in Queens who sends $300 to Ludhiana in cash at a neighbourhood money transfer counter pays an extra $3 every time. Same corridor, same destination country, different tax, and the difference comes down to how the money was paid in. That split sums up the North America to India corridor in 2026: overwhelmingly digital, increasingly cheap, and with a shrinking cash minority that is now paying more.</p>

<h2>The biggest single source of India's remittances</h2>
<p>India received a record $135.46 billion in private transfers in 2024-25, up 14% on the year, according to <a href="https://www.newsonair.gov.in/remittances-by-indians-working-abroad-scale-record-high-of-135-billion-in-fy25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI data</a>. The United States is the largest contributor. The RBI's sixth remittances survey found the US accounted for 27.7% of inflows in 2023-24, up from 23.4% in 2020-21. On that year's total of about $118.7 billion, that implies roughly $33 billion. Advanced economies led by the US, UK, Canada, Australia and Singapore now supply more than half of India's remittances.</p>
<p>That shift towards skilled migrants in rich countries changes the shape of the money. Transfers are larger and more digital: 73.5% of remittance transactions to India were digital in 2023-24, the RBI survey found.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$135.46B</b><span>India's inward private transfers, FY25</span></div><div class="stat"><b>27.7%</b><span>US share of India's remittances, FY24</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1%</b><span>US tax on cash-funded transfers from 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>The 1% US remittance tax: what it covers</h2>
<p>Since 1 January 2026, a 1% federal excise tax has applied to some remittance transfers from the US under section 4475 of the tax code, added by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025. The scope is narrow. It applies only when a transfer is funded with cash, a money order, a cashier's check or a similar physical instrument. Proposed Treasury regulations published in April 2026 indicate that transfers funded from a US bank account or with a US-issued debit or credit card are exempt, as are ordinary wires and ACH payments, according to a <a href="https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/blog/irs-remittance-transfer-tax-proposed-regulations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summary by Greenback Tax Services</a>. The test is where the sender is located, not citizenship. Providers collect the tax at the point of sale and report it to the IRS.</p>
<p>For India, the direct hit is small. The <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-1-u-s-remittance-levy-impacts-on-mexico-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Niskanen Center</a> estimates inflows could fall by about $466 million, a fraction of a percent of the corridor. In Mexico, where FXC Intelligence says cash-funded transfers were only about 1% of inflows, the effect has been limited too. The bigger effect is behavioural: the tax gives cash users one more reason to switch to a bank account or card. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/">US-Mexico corridor</a> analysis looks at that shift.</p>

<h2>What sending costs from the US and Canada</h2>
<p>World Bank data for the third quarter of 2025 shows a clear gap between the two North American corridors. Sending $200 from the <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/United-States/India" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US to India</a> cost 2.92% on average, with a fee of about $4.20 and an exchange margin of about 0.82%. Sending CAD 200 from <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/Canada/India" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Canada to India</a> cost 4.28%, with a fee of about CAD 6.09 and a margin of 1.23%. The UK, by comparison, averaged 1.91%, as we explain in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/">UK to India guide</a>.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Corridor</th><th>Average cost</th><th>Average fee</th><th>FX margin</th><th>Cheapest in sample</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>US to India ($200)</td><td>2.92%</td><td>about $4.20</td><td>about 0.82%</td><td>below zero (one bank-linked option)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Canada to India (CAD 200)</td><td>4.28%</td><td>CAD 6.09</td><td>1.23%</td><td>0.86%</td></tr>
<tr><td>UK to India (£120)</td><td>1.91%</td><td>£1.58</td><td>0.59%</td><td>0.15%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The ranges are wider than the averages suggest. In the US sample, one bank-linked option was priced slightly better than the reference rate, while the dearest money transfer operator cost 6.35%. In Canada the cheapest bank transfer cost 0.86%, but a branch transfer at a large domestic bank cost 28.33% of the amount sent. In both countries, branch counters are where costs balloon.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The new US tax is less a toll on remittances than a push away from cash.</blockquote>

<h2>Canada: a smaller corridor reshaped by student caps</h2>
<p>Canada supplied 3.8% of India's remittances in 2023-24, roughly $4.5 billion on that year's total. Its profile is unusual. Many Indians in Canada arrived as students and moved into work through post-graduation permits, so money flows both ways: families in India pay tuition and living costs, and graduates who find jobs start sending money home.</p>
<p>That pipeline has narrowed. Ottawa has capped new international study permits since 2024, and reports based on government data indicate that permits for Indian students fell by about half in 2025, according to <a href="https://thewire.in/education/50-drop-in-study-permits-issued-to-indian-students-by-canada-in-2025-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Wire</a>. Fewer students today means fewer young workers remitting later. It also explains why cost matters so much here: at 4.28%, Canada is the most expensive of India's big Western corridors, and many senders are on entry-level wages. For the outbound side, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-international-student-fees/">paying international student fees</a>.</p>

<h2>Digital versus cash</h2>
<p>For most Indian Americans and Indo-Canadians the question is no longer whether to go digital but which digital route to use. The World Bank's global data shows digital transfers averaging 4.85% in early 2025 against 7.16% for non-digital ones, and in the US the cash side now carries an extra 1%. Anyone still sending cash can usually save simply by opening a basic bank account or paying the same provider by debit card. The other habit worth changing is the reflexive use of a big bank's branch wire, which in both countries produced some of the worst prices in the World Bank sample.</p>
<p>Speed has stopped being a reason to pay more. Many digital transfers to Indian bank accounts now credit within minutes once the provider releases the funds, so the main trade-off is between price and convenience features such as rate alerts, scheduled transfers and saved recipients. Those are worth having, but not at the cost of a percentage point on every transfer.</p>

<h2>Where the money goes, and paying it directly</h2>
<p>A lot of North America's money to India covers recurring obligations: parents' medical and household costs, home loan instalments, insurance premiums, property tax and younger siblings' school fees. A Canadian fintech began offering direct payment to more than 21,000 Indian billers through Bharat Connect in Canadian dollars in February 2025, and NRIs with US or Canadian mobile numbers can link UPI to NRE or NRO accounts and pay bills in rupees. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">NRI bill payments guide</a> compares the routes.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<p>Three things. First, the final Treasury rules on the remittance tax, which should settle edge cases the proposed version left open. Second, Canada's student intake, which will shape that corridor's remittances for years. Third, the rupee: after sliding past 95 to the dollar in 2026, each dollar sent buys more at home, and a weak rupee has historically pulled transfers forward. None of that changes the basic advice, which is to fund transfers electronically, compare the rupees delivered and stay away from branch wires.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information, not tax or financial advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/usa-canada-to-india-remittance.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Future of Cross-Border Payments: Why the G20&#x27;s 2027 Targets Are Slipping</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>The G20 cross-border payments roadmap set 2027 targets for cost, speed, access and transparency. FSB data shows where the world lags and which rails could help.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In 2020 the G20 did something unusual for a club of finance ministers: it put numbers on a promise. By the end of 2027, cross-border payments were meant to be cheaper, faster, more widely available and more transparent, with specific percentages attached. With a little over a year to go, the people tracking those numbers have said plainly that the world will miss most of them.</p>

<h2>What the targets actually say</h2>
<p>The targets differ by segment, as summarised in a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2026/feb/pdf/on-the-road-to-better-cross-border-payments-how-is-australia-travelling.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">February 2026 Reserve Bank of Australia bulletin</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Cost.</b> Retail payments should average below 1%, with no corridor above 3%. Remittances should average below 3%, with no corridor above 5%, by 2030.</li>
<li><b>Speed.</b> For retail, remittances and wholesale alike, 75% of payments should reach the recipient within one hour and the rest within one business day.</li>
<li><b>Access.</b> Every user should have at least one electronic option for sending and receiving, and more than 90% of individuals should have a means of receiving remittances electronically.</li>
<li><b>Transparency.</b> Every provider should show the total cost, expected delivery time, tracking and terms before a payment is made.</li>
</ul>
<p>Most of these fall due at the end of 2027. The remittance cost goal runs to 2030, matching the UN development target.</p>

<h2>Where the world stands</h2>
<p>The Financial Stability Board's <a href="https://www.fsb.org/2025/10/g20-roadmap-for-cross-border-payments-consolidated-progress-report-for-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 progress report</a> found only slight improvement since indicators were first measured in 2023. The board said it is unlikely that satisfactory global improvement will arrive in line with the 2027 timetable.</p>
<p>The detail is sobering. Only 35.4% of retail cross-border payments were credited within an hour in 2025, up 1.9 percentage points. For remittances the figure was 54.4%. Both are well short of 75%. Wholesale bank-to-bank payments did better, with more than half arriving within an hour. On cost, person-to-person retail payments averaged about 2.5%, stable since 2023, against a 1% goal. Sending $200 as a remittance cost about 6.4% on average, more than double the 3% target.</p>
<p>The World Bank's own price survey tells the same story from the ground. In the first quarter of 2025, the global average cost of sending $200 was 6.49%, and the World Bank's Q3 2025 reading was still 6.36%. Banks averaged 14.55%, while digital services averaged 4.85%. Sub-Saharan Africa remained the most expensive region to send to at 8.78%, and South Asia the cheapest at 4.80%.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>35.4%</b><span>retail payments credited within an hour</span></div><div class="stat"><b>6.36%</b><span>average cost to send $200 (Q3 2025)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>75%</b><span>within-an-hour target for end-2027</span></div></div>

<p>Averages hide wide regional gaps. On FXC Intelligence's reading of the FSB data, Sub-Saharan Africa is the most expensive region to send from, at just over 4% for a $1,000 person-to-person payment, while Europe and Central Asia is the cheapest at 1.93%. About 18% of corridors still average above 3%. Speed varies by how money goes in: cash-funded transfers often arrive fast, while about 42% of transfers funded from bank accounts take longer than a full business day. A warehouse supervisor in Riyadh who sends money home from a bank app may be waiting longer than her colleague who pays cash at a counter.</p>
<p>There is good news in access. FXC Intelligence's reading of the FSB data shows 78.7% of adults now have a transaction account, up nearly five points since 2022, and transparency is improving, with about 63% of services showing both cost and speed up front.</p>

<h2>Why the gap is so stubborn</h2>
<p>The FSB's own diagnosis is that most of the policy work is done, but it has not reached the end user. Domestic payment systems are the first and last mile of every cross-border payment, and if a receiving bank in Lagos or Dhaka only credits accounts in batches, a fast international leg does not help. Long correspondent chains add cost and compliance checks at every hop, which we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking explained</a>. And many corridors are small, so providers have little reason to compete on price.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The international leg of a payment is rarely the slow part anymore. The delays live at the edges, inside domestic systems and compliance queues.</blockquote>

<h2>The rails that could close the gap</h2>
<h3>ISO 20022 messaging</h3>
<p>On 22 November 2025, Swift ended the coexistence period for cross-border payment messages, making ISO 20022 mandatory. Swift said about 97% of instructions were already in the new format just before the deadline. Richer structured data should mean fewer payments stopped for manual checks, which is where a lot of delay comes from. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/">Swift and ISO 20022 in 2026</a> goes deeper.</p>
<h3>Linking instant payment systems</h3>
<p>The most direct fix for speed is connecting domestic instant systems to each other. Nexus, first designed at the BIS, is the most ambitious attempt. Its operating company appointed a joint venture of Malaysia's PayNet and Singapore's NETS as technical operator in February 2026, with India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as founding partners and go-live targeted for 2027, according to a <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nexus-global-payments-appoints-technical-operator-2026-02-09" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nexus Global Payments announcement</a>. The design aims for transfers in under a minute. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus explained</a>.</p>
<h3>Stablecoins</h3>
<p>Stablecoins settle in minutes at any hour, which speaks directly to the speed target. Business payments in stablecoins reached an estimated $226 billion a year by late 2025, according to McKinsey. But they do not by themselves solve the last mile: the recipient still needs a way into local currency, and the FSB has been cautious about their risks. They are likely to help most in corridors where banks are slow and costly, rather than replace bank rails generally. Bill payments and supplier invoices in high-cost corridors are where that is already happening.</p>

<h2>What happens after 2027</h2>
<p>Missing a target is not the same as failing. The roadmap gave the industry common measurements, and the FSB is now pushing for more regional and national action rather than more global plans. Expect the next phase to focus on the hardest corridors, especially those into Sub-Saharan Africa, on getting more domestic systems to run instant payments, and on linking them. For a parent in Leeds paying school fees in Kochi, or a shop in Nairobi paying a supplier in Mumbai, the change will show up as fewer days of waiting and a clear price before pressing send. Those are the two things the targets were always really about.</p>
<p>The bigger question is whether the official sector or the market moves faster. Central banks are building links like Nexus on multi-year timelines, while private payment companies are wiring stablecoin corridors in months. The likely outcome is a mix: regulated bank rails for large and routine flows, and newer rails filling gaps where those rails are slowest. Corridors such as the ones covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India money transfer guide</a> will be an early test of which approach users prefer.</p>
<p class="note">Figures are from the FSB's 2025 consolidated progress report and the World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide survey, the latest available as of October 2026.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Cross-Border E-commerce Payments 2026: Local Methods, FX, Checkout</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/ecommerce-cross-border-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/ecommerce-cross-border-payments/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How online sellers win cross-border checkout in 2026: local payment method shares by market, real fee maths on an $80 order and FX choices at checkout.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ecommerce-cross-border-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A small-batch hot sauce maker in Albuquerque gets her first order from Sao Paulo on a Tuesday and her first from Munich on the Friday. Both customers found her through the same video. The Brazilian abandons checkout because there is no way to pay by Pix. The German pays, but by card, and when the processor's statement arrives she sees that the order cost her almost twice as much to accept as a sale to New Mexico. Cross-border e-commerce is mostly won or lost in those two moments: whether the customer can pay the way they normally pay, and what it costs the merchant when they do.</p>

<p>This guide is for founders, e-commerce managers and finance leads selling abroad. It uses the 2026 edition of the Worldpay Global Payments Report for market data, a large processor's published US price list for cost maths, and Baymard Institute's checkout research for the conversion side. The conclusion is blunt: in most large markets outside the United States, a card-only checkout is a niche checkout.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>56%</b><span>of global e-commerce value paid by digital wallets, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>70.22%</b><span>average documented cart abandonment rate</span></div><div class="stat"><b>+2.5%</b><span>typical surcharge for an international card with currency conversion</span></div></div>

<h2>The world does not pay online by card</h2>

<p>The <a href="https://worldpay.com/en/insights/articles/what-63000-shoppers-just-told-us-about-paying" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 Global Payments Report</a>, based on more than 63,000 consumers in 42 markets, found that digital wallets accounted for 56 percent of global e-commerce transaction value in 2025 and 33 percent of in-store spending. That headline needs unpacking, because "wallet" covers very different things: a card stored in a phone wallet, a stored-value app in China, or an app sitting on top of a real-time bank rail such as India's UPI.</p>

<p>The market-by-market view from a <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2026/04/01/digital-wallets-worldpay-gpr-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert summary of the report</a> is where the practical decisions live. Alipay and WeChat Pay take 89 percent of Chinese e-commerce value. UPI-driven wallets take 68 percent of online spending in India. Brazil's Pix takes 42 percent of e-commerce. In Germany wallets reach 52 percent of online value and buy now, pay later another 18 percent. The UK is still card-heavy online at 46 percent. And the United States, where many sellers design their checkout, is the outlier: <a href="https://www.digitaltransactions.net/its-still-card-first-in-the-u-s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cards were 49 percent of US online value</a> in 2025, with wallets at 40 percent.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Market</th><th>Leading online method (2025)</th><th>Share of e-commerce value</th><th>What a foreign seller needs</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>China</td><td>Alipay and WeChat Pay</td><td>89%</td><td>Super-app wallet acceptance, usually via a local or cross-border acquirer</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>UPI-driven wallets</td><td>68%</td><td>UPI acceptance; cards alone miss most buyers</td></tr>
<tr><td>Germany</td><td>Wallets; BNPL 18%</td><td>52%</td><td>Major wallets plus invoice or instalment options</td></tr>
<tr><td>UK</td><td>Cards</td><td>46%</td><td>Cards and phone wallets; sterling pricing</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brazil</td><td>Pix</td><td>42%</td><td>Pix QR or copy-paste code; real-denominated prices</td></tr>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>Cards (wallets 40%)</td><td>49%</td><td>Cards, phone wallets, BNPL for larger baskets</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The pattern is that where a country built a fast, cheap domestic rail, consumers moved to it online. For background on those rails, see our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI and its global expansion</a> and on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Brazil's Pix</a>.</p>

<h2>What checkout friction actually costs</h2>

<p>Baymard Institute's long-running research, summarised by <a href="https://contentsquare.com/guides/cart-abandonment/stats/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Contentsquare</a>, puts the average documented cart abandonment rate at about 70 percent. Among shoppers who abandoned for reasons other than browsing, 39 percent cited unexpected extra costs such as shipping, taxes or fees, 19 percent said they did not trust the site with payment details, and 10 percent said there were not enough payment methods. Those reasons overlap, but every one of them is sharper across a border: duties appear late, the brand is unfamiliar, and the familiar method is missing.</p>

<p>Localisation matters on top. A seven-country <a href="https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/blog/crossborder-cart-abandonment.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pitney Bowes and Morning Consult survey</a> of 7,000 shoppers ranked localisation as the second most common driver of cross-border abandonment after price and convenience, and identified prices not shown in the shopper's own currency as a leading problem. Older vendor data points the same way: <a href="https://go.fastspring.com/rs/803-UZR-015/images/fastspring-currency-whitepaper.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FastSpring reported</a> that clients adding local currencies typically saw conversion rise 5 to 20 percent, though that data dates from 2014 and comes from a seller of the service.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A foreign shopper forgives slow shipping more readily than an unfamiliar way to pay.</blockquote>

<h2>A worked example: the real cost of an $80 order</h2>

<p>Our Albuquerque merchant uses a processor whose <a href="https://stripe.com/pricing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published US price list</a> charges 2.9 percent plus 30 cents for a domestic card, adds 1.5 percent for international cards and another 1 percent when currency conversion is needed. We use it because the numbers are public; other providers price differently, and large merchants negotiate.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Domestic card, $80:</b> 2.9 percent is $2.32, plus $0.30, for $2.62, or 3.3 percent of the order.</li>
<li><b>UK customer, card, priced in dollars:</b> add 1.5 percent ($1.20) for the international card. Total $3.82, or 4.8 percent.</li>
<li><b>UK customer, card, priced in sterling:</b> add another 1 percent ($0.80) for conversion. Total $4.62, or 5.8 percent. Localised pricing has cost her a point of margin, but it probably saved the sale.</li>
<li><b>Brazilian customer paying by Pix through the processor's wallet product:</b> listed at 1.8 percent plus 30 cents, plus the same 1.5 percent international and 1 percent conversion surcharges. Total $3.74, or 4.7 percent, cheaper than the UK card sale and, crucially, the sale happens.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin payment:</b> listed at 1.5 percent, or $1.20. Few consumers pay this way today, but for some business buyers it is the lowest-cost option on the sheet.</li>
</ol>

<p>Now scale it. At 1,000 UK card orders a month, the gap between domestic and localised international acceptance is about $2,000 a month. That is real money, but it is small next to the revenue lost when shoppers leave. Of 10,000 carts started, roughly 7,000 are typically abandoned; if a tenth of those shoppers cite missing payment options, several hundred potential orders are at stake each month. Pricing a market correctly means comparing the fee premium with the conversion you buy for it, not just minimising fees.</p>

<h2>FX at checkout: who takes the spread?</h2>

<p>Every cross-border sale involves a currency conversion somewhere. The only question is where, and who pays for it.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Price in your currency, let the customer's bank convert.</b> Cheapest for the merchant, worst for conversion. The shopper sees an unfamiliar number, then a foreign transaction fee on their statement.</li>
<li><b>Price in the customer's currency, convert at settlement.</b> The merchant pays a conversion fee, typically around 1 percent on processor price lists, and carries rate risk between pricing and settlement. This is usually the best compromise.</li>
<li><b>Hold balances in foreign currency.</b> Merchants with costs abroad, such as a European warehouse or ad spend in euros, can settle into multi-currency balances and convert only the surplus. That turns a fee into a <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/">natural hedge</a>.</li>
<li><b>Dynamic currency conversion offered to the shopper.</b> The shopper chooses to pay in their own currency at a rate set by the acquirer. It looks helpful, but the rate often carries a markup well above the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a>, and regulators in several markets require that markup to be disclosed.</li>
</ul>

<p>One structural point is easy to miss. The dollar sits on one side of 89 percent of all FX trades, according to the <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p250930.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS 2025 Triennial Survey</a>. A seller in Lisbon pricing in Brazilian reais may find that the conversion goes through dollars twice behind the scenes. Ask your provider how many conversions happen and at what rate.</p>

<h2>Wallets, rails and the cross-border shortcut</h2>

<p>The newest development is that domestic rails are starting to work across borders. Worldpay's report notes that Pix is accepted in Argentina, Chile, Portugal, Spain and the United States, UPI in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the UAE and elsewhere, and that Alipay+ connects 1.8 billion users to 100 million merchants across 14 markets. For a merchant, that means a tourist or diaspora shopper may already expect to pay with a home-country app.</p>

<p>Stablecoins sit at the edge of this picture. Card networks and large processors have added stablecoin acceptance and payouts, and the fee schedule above shows why some merchants care: 1.5 percent with no international surcharge is competitive with any cross-border card. Consumer usage is still small; the more meaningful use is on the payout side, where merchants pay suppliers, creators or marketplace sellers abroad. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a> covers that side.</p>

<h2>A practical checklist for selling abroad</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Rank markets by revenue, then fix the top three.</b> Use the table above to see which local methods those markets expect.</li>
<li><b>Show prices in local currency, including duties.</b> Unexpected extra costs are the top abandonment reason; landed-cost pricing removes the late surprise.</li>
<li><b>Add the one dominant local method in each priority market</b> before adding a long tail of options.</li>
<li><b>Watch authorisation rates for foreign cards separately.</b> Issuers decline cross-border card-not-present transactions more often; local acquiring or network tokens can help.</li>
<li><b>Decide where FX happens</b> and record it in your pricing model, not just your processor statement.</li>
<li><b>Reconcile by market monthly:</b> fees, FX cost, chargebacks and refunds, so you see the true margin per country.</li>
</ul>

<p>For the business-to-business side of the same problem, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments in 2026</a>. Nothing here is a recommendation of any provider; compare current pricing and contract terms yourself.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>1 January 2027:</b> the stablecoin rate on the processor price list we used rises from 0.8 percent to 1.0 percent for its wallet product, an early sign of how stablecoin acceptance will be priced once promotions end.</li>
<li><b>Spring 2027:</b> the next Global Payments Report. The 2026 edition was published on 31 March; watch whether India's UPI share and Brazil's Pix share keep climbing.</li>
<li><b>2025 to 2030:</b> Worldpay forecasts wallet spending at the point of sale to grow about 11 percent a year globally, US wallet spending to reach $4.1 trillion by 2030, and UK wallet spending to rise from GBP 269 billion to GBP 453 billion.</li>
<li><b>Cross-border rail links:</b> each new UPI or Pix acceptance corridor changes what travelling and diaspora shoppers expect at your checkout.</li>
</ul>

<p>The direction is clear even if the pace is not. Checkout is becoming local everywhere, and the merchants who treat payment methods as part of market entry, alongside language, shipping and pricing, will keep the customers that a single global card form loses.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ecommerce-cross-border-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>CBDC Technology Providers 2026: Who Builds Digital Money</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-technology-providers-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-technology-providers-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Who builds CBDCs in 2026: G+D, Bitt, Soramitsu, R3, Consensys, Ripple, Fnality and BIS projects, plus how central banks pick a platform and India&#x27;s e-rupee.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-technology-providers-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In a district treasury office in Odisha, an officer reviewing a welfare scheme can now ask a question that cash never allowed: could this subsidy be issued as digital rupees that only work at approved fertiliser dealers? The Reserve Bank of India has run pilots doing exactly that. But the code that makes such a rupee programmable, the ledger that records it and the wallet that holds it were not all written inside the central bank. Behind almost every central bank digital currency sits a small group of technology vendors, and choosing among them is one of the least discussed decisions in modern monetary policy.</p>

<h2>How many countries are building a CBDC in 2026?</h2>
<p>As of May 2026, 146 countries and currency unions representing more than 98% of global GDP are exploring a central bank digital currency, according to the Atlantic Council's tracker. Of those, a record 77 are in development, pilot or launch, the tracker counts 41 pilot projects, and only three countries have fully launched: the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>146</b><span>countries exploring a CBDC (Atlantic Council, May 2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>41</b><span>CBDC pilot projects</span></div><div class="stat"><b>3</b><span>fully launched</span></div></div>
<p>The gap between 146 and 3 is the market that vendors are chasing. Most central banks do not have large in-house engineering teams, and almost none want to run a consumer payments business. They need someone to supply the core ledger, the issuance and redemption tools, the interfaces for commercial banks, and often the wallets and offline hardware too. The <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Atlantic Council tracker</a> shows how uneven progress is, and our own <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">CBDC tracker</a> follows country-level changes.</p>

<h2>What does a CBDC technology provider actually supply?</h2>
<p>A CBDC technology provider supplies some or all of four layers: a core ledger where the central bank mints and destroys currency, a distribution layer for commercial banks and payment firms, end-user wallets and merchant tools, and specialised features such as offline payments or programmability. In 2026 few central banks buy all four from one vendor.</p>
<p>Ripple's description of its own platform is a useful map of the layers: an issuer module for minting, redemption and destruction; an operator module for banks distributing the currency; end-user wallets; and the ledger itself, with the controls central banks require. Bitt's work with the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank followed the same pattern, supplying a central bank system, a financial institution system, a merchant app and a free wallet.</p>
<p>The architectural choices behind those layers matter more than the brand on the contract:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Token or account.</b> In a token model the digital note itself carries value, like cash. India's retail e-rupee is described as a digital token representing legal tender, issued in the same denominations as notes. In an account model, balances sit in ledger accounts tied to identities.</li>
<li><b>One tier or two.</b> In a two-tier model the central bank issues and commercial banks distribute and handle customers. India's pilot distributes through banks; almost every retail CBDC under development uses this structure.</li>
<li><b>Retail or wholesale.</b> Retail CBDCs reach the public. Wholesale CBDCs settle between banks and are the focus of BIS projects such as Agora. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/wholesale-cbdc-explained/">wholesale CBDC explainer</a> covers the second.</li>
<li><b>Online or offline.</b> Offline payment capability, where two devices transfer value without a network, is a major differentiator for inclusion-focused countries.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Who are the main CBDC technology providers?</h2>
<p>The CBDC technology providers with verified central bank work as of 2026 include Giesecke+Devrient, Bitt, Soramitsu, R3, Consensys and Ripple for retail and pilot projects, and Fnality and BIS-led consortia for wholesale settlement. Each has a distinct technical approach and a different track record of moving from proof of concept to live use.</p>

<h3>Giesecke+Devrient (Filia)</h3>
<p>The German banknote and security printer sells a CBDC product called Filia, designed around offline payments that can be made consecutively without a network. The Bank of Ghana signed with G+D to pilot the e-Cedi, a general-purpose retail CBDC, in three phases covering design, implementation and field testing through mobile apps and smart cards, as <a href="https://thefintechtimes.com/bank-of-ghana-partners-with-gieseckedevrient-to-pilot-central-bank-digital-currency-in-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Fintech Times reported</a>. The aim includes payments without a bank account or smartphone.</p>

<h3>Bitt</h3>
<p>Barbados-based Bitt is the only vendor on this list behind two currencies the public actually used. It built DCash for the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, launched on 31 March 2021 as the first retail CBDC issued within a currency union, per the <a href="https://www.eccb-centralbank.org/news/bitt-partners-with-eccb-to-develop-world-s-first-central-bank-digital-currency-in-a-currency-union" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ECCB's announcement</a>. In August 2021 the Central Bank of Nigeria chose Bitt as technical partner for the eNaira, citing competence, security, interoperability and implementation experience, <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/?p=601860" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TheCable reported</a>. Nigeria is one of the Atlantic Council's three launched CBDCs, though public use has stayed thin: in June 2026 the central bank's Payments System Vision 2028 acknowledged slow adoption and set out to reposition the eNaira around government-to-person and cross-border payments, <a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/payments/7976086/nigeria-to-reposition-its-struggling-cbdc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Banking reported</a>. DCash had a harder ending. Its pilot concluded in January 2024, and in February 2026 the ECCB suspended work on DCash 2.0 to prioritise a regional fast payment system, <a href="https://discovermni.com/2026/02/16/eccb-suspends-dcash-2-0-to-prioritise-regional-fast-payment-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MNI reported</a>.</p>

<h3>Soramitsu</h3>
<p>The Japanese firm built Cambodia's Bakong system on Hyperledger Iroha, live since 2020. Soramitsu reports more than 30 million wallets in a country of about 17 million people, and 608 million transactions worth over $150 billion in 2024, according to its <a href="https://soramitsu.co.jp/iroha-cbdc-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2025 release</a>. Its own material classes Bakong as closer to tokenised deposits than a pure CBDC. It has also run proofs of concept in Laos, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea.</p>

<h3>R3 (Corda)</h3>
<p>R3's permissioned Corda platform has been used in several central bank experiments, including the Bank of Thailand's Inthanon project from 2018. In April 2023 the Central Bank of the UAE named R3 as technology provider and G42 Cloud as infrastructure provider for its CBDC strategy, with Clifford Chance on legal oversight, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2023/04/204844-cbdcs-central-bank-of-uae-selects-r3-g42-cloud-clifford-chance-to-work-on-cbdc-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>. The plan included a CBDC bridge proof of concept with India.</p>

<h3>Consensys</h3>
<p>Consensys brings enterprise Ethereum technology to central bank pilots. In 2020 it was selected by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand for phase two of their joint Inthanon-LionRock cross-border project, working with PwC.</p>

<h3>Ripple</h3>
<p>Ripple markets a CBDC platform based on XRP Ledger technology. In 2023 it said it was in talks with more than 20 countries and named work with Palau on a national digital currency and with the Central Bank of Montenegro on a pilot and strategy. Neither has become a launched retail CBDC.</p>

<h3>Fnality (wholesale)</h3>
<p>Fnality, owned by a consortium of global banks, launched its sterling Fnality Payment System in December 2023, letting banks settle in digital tokens backed one for one by funds at the Bank of England. It raised a $136 million Series C in September 2025 led by investors including WisdomTree, Bank of America and Citi, per <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/371889/fnality-raises-136-million-series-c-to-expand-settlement-rails-for-tokenized-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</p>

<h3>BIS Innovation Hub projects</h3>
<p>mBridge connected the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE for cross-border wholesale CBDC payments; the BIS withdrew in late 2024, saying the project had graduated. Project Agora, also BIS-led, brings together the New York Fed, central banks from Europe, Korea, Mexico and Japan, and more than 40 commercial banks. User testing began around January 2026 and was expected to run about six months, <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/01/16/top-central-banks-step-up-trials-of-agora-digital-settlement-system-seen-as-future-of-crossborder-payments/205518" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported via Malay Mail</a>. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">mBridge explainer</a> has the detail.</p>

<h2>How do CBDC providers compare?</h2>
<p>The table summarises each provider's verified central bank work as of October 2026. It is limited to partnerships confirmed by a central bank, the company or a reliable news report. Many vendors claim further confidential engagements; we have left those out.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Provider</th><th>Focus</th><th>Verified central bank work</th><th>Stage reached</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Bitt</td><td>Retail CBDC stack</td><td>ECCB DCash (2021), CBN eNaira (2021)</td><td>Live (eNaira); DCash pilot ended 2024</td></tr>
<tr><td>Soramitsu</td><td>Iroha-based ledger</td><td>Cambodia Bakong (2020); Laos, Solomon Islands, PNG PoCs</td><td>Live (Bakong)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Giesecke+Devrient</td><td>Retail, offline</td><td>Bank of Ghana e-Cedi pilot</td><td>Pilot</td></tr>
<tr><td>R3</td><td>Permissioned DLT</td><td>CBUAE CBDC strategy (2023); Bank of Thailand Inthanon (2018)</td><td>Strategy, PoC</td></tr>
<tr><td>Consensys</td><td>Enterprise Ethereum</td><td>HKMA and Bank of Thailand Inthanon-LionRock (2020)</td><td>PoC</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ripple</td><td>XRPL-based platform</td><td>Palau, Central Bank of Montenegro (2023)</td><td>Pilot, strategy</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fnality</td><td>Wholesale settlement</td><td>Sterling system backed at Bank of England (Dec 2023)</td><td>Live (wholesale)</td></tr>
<tr><td>BIS Innovation Hub</td><td>Multi-CBDC, tokenisation</td><td>mBridge (to 2024), Agora (testing 2026)</td><td>MVP, testing</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>How does a central bank choose a CBDC platform?</h2>
<p>Central banks typically choose a CBDC platform through a staged process: research, a request for information, proofs of concept with several vendors, a competitive selection for a pilot, then a decision on issuance. In 2021 Nigeria's central bank said it chose Bitt for technological competence, efficiency, security, interoperability and implementation experience, a list most central banks would recognise.</p>
<p>In practice, five questions dominate:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Sovereignty and control.</b> Can the central bank run, audit and if necessary replace the system? The ECCB's governor framed it bluntly: "we will not outsource our development." Vendors that hand over source code and operational control score higher.</li>
<li><b>Resilience and offline capability.</b> A national payment system must keep working in outages and in areas with weak connectivity, which is why G+D leads with offline payments.</li>
<li><b>Interoperability.</b> The CBDC must connect to existing real-time systems such as India's UPI, which handles about 802 million payments a day as of September 2026, and to other central banks for cross-border use.</li>
<li><b>Privacy and compliance.</b> Designs must satisfy anti-money-laundering rules while protecting user data, a debate covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">CBDC privacy explainer</a>.</li>
<li><b>Proven delivery.</b> Very few vendors have moved a CBDC from pilot to public use. Bitt and Soramitsu are the main exceptions on retail.</li>
</ol>
<blockquote class="pull">Building a CBDC ledger is the easy part; getting a population to want it is not.</blockquote>

<h2>Which technology runs India's digital rupee?</h2>
<p>India's digital rupee is issued by the Reserve Bank of India and distributed through commercial banks in a two-tier, token-based model. The retail pilot began on 1 December 2022 with SBI, ICICI Bank, YES Bank and IDFC First Bank, followed by Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, according to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/rbi-to-launch-first-pilot-for-retail-digital-rupee-from-dec-1-with-8-banks-122112900833_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a>.</p>
<p>The RBI has not published a single named vendor for the core platform, and we have not found a verified one. What it has published is direction. Its 2025-26 annual report, summarised by <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/banking/rbi-to-expand-digital-rupee-pilots-explore-cross-border-cbdc-transactions-in-fy27" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money</a>, describes programmable pilots under central and state direct benefit transfer schemes, a memorandum of understanding with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and talks with MAS and the Central Bank of the UAE on a cross-border CBDC pilot. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">digital rupee</a> explains how this works for users.</p>

<h3>A worked example: what adoption looks like in numbers</h3>
<p>Compare two systems built for different purposes. India's retail e-rupee in circulation fell from Rs 1,016.46 crore on 31 March 2025 to Rs 771.66 crore on 31 March 2026. The change is Rs 244.80 crore, and 244.80 divided by 1,016.46 is a decline of about 24% in a year.</p>
<p>Cambodia's Bakong, by Soramitsu's figures, processed 608 million transactions worth over $150 billion in 2024. Dividing $150 billion by 608 million gives an average transaction of roughly $247, and 30 million wallets for 17 million people works out to about 1.8 wallets per person. The comparison is imperfect, because Bakong functions as a fast payment system with tokenised deposits and the e-rupee competes with UPI. That is the point: a technically sound CBDC that duplicates an excellent existing rail struggles for users, as our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">e-rupee vs UPI</a> analysis argues.</p>

<h2>What should governments and vendors watch next?</h2>
<p>The next twelve months will test whether CBDC vendors can move from pilots to production. Key dates include the RBI's financial year 2026-27 plans for wider pilots and cross-border tests, Agora's report to decision makers after its 2026 testing phase, and decisions in large economies that could create the biggest contracts yet.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>RBI pilots through March 2027.</b> The RBI plans to expand direct benefit transfer and retail pilots, add tokenisation pilots, run a CBDC and Asset Tokenisation sandbox, and explore bilateral and multilateral cross-border pilots in financial year 2026-27.</li>
<li><b>Agora results, late 2026.</b> After roughly six months of testing from January 2026, participants were due to report to decision makers on what a launch would require, possibly adding currencies already settled through CLS.</li>
<li><b>UAE to India.</b> Any operational CBUAE and RBI pilot would be one of the first live retail-adjacent corridor tests involving India.</li>
<li><b>Wholesale tokenised settlement.</b> Fnality's expansion beyond sterling, funded by its 2025 round, will show whether privately run, central-bank-backed settlement can compete with direct wholesale CBDCs.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">Partnerships listed are those confirmed by a central bank, the company or a reliable report as of October 2026. This article is research, not procurement or legal advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-technology-providers-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top Canadian Fintech Companies 2026: Leaders and New Rails</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/canada-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/canada-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Canada&#x27;s leading fintech companies in 2026, from Wealthsimple, KOHO and Neo to Shopify and Float, plus the Real-Time Rail and open banking timeline.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/canada-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A drywall subcontractor in Calgary finishes a job on a Friday afternoon and sends his two helpers their pay by Interac e-Transfer from his phone. The money lands in minutes, but behind it sits a national batch system that still settles the banks' positions later, and a payroll file he cannot automate because Canada has no live open banking regime. Canadian fintech in 2026 is built around that gap: a handful of well-funded consumer and business apps, one dominant domestic network, and two pieces of national infrastructure that have been promised for years and are finally close.</p>

<h2>How did we choose the leading Canadian fintech companies for 2026?</h2>
<p>We chose Canadian fintech companies for 2026 using measurable criteria as of October 2026: customers or clients, assets or volume, latest funding round or valuation, licences held or sought, and product breadth. We grouped them by category rather than numbering them, and we include the two national systems, Interac and Payments Canada's Real-Time Rail, because they shape what every fintech here can build.</p>
<p>Capital is scarcer than it was. Canadian fintech raised US$996.7 million across 47 deals in the first half of 2026, down 40% by value from US$1.7 billion a year earlier, according to <a href="https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/canadian-fintech-investment-nears-us1bn-in-first-half-of-2026/393371" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KPMG's Pulse of Fintech as reported by Wealth Professional</a>. Fewer deals, bigger cheques: the average round grew even as the count fell. That favours companies that already have scale, which is most of this list.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>US$997M</b><span>Canadian fintech investment, H1 2026 (KPMG)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>C$100B</b><span>Wealthsimple assets under administration, Oct 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Q4 2026</b><span>Expected Real-Time Rail launch</span></div></div>

<h2>Which Canadian consumer fintechs are largest in 2026?</h2>
<p>By valuation and assets, Wealthsimple is Canada's largest consumer fintech in 2026, valued at C$10 billion in October 2025 with C$100 billion under administration for 3 million clients. KOHO is next by members, with more than 2.5 million and a C$1.33 billion valuation in June 2026, while Neo Financial reports more than one million customers and Nesto leads digital mortgages.</p>
<h3>Wealthsimple</h3>
<p>Wealthsimple began as a robo-adviser and now offers trading, crypto, tax filing and cash accounts. In October 2025 it announced an equity round of up to C$750 million at a C$10 billion post-money valuation, led by Dragoneer with CPP Investments joining, according to <a href="https://www.torys.com/work/2025/10/158d6b2d-922f-4cc8-b387-9a5ef203405e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Torys</a>, which advised on the deal. At the time it served 3 million Canadians and held C$100 billion in assets under administration.</p>
<h3>KOHO</h3>
<p>Toronto-based KOHO offers spending and savings accounts, credit-building and international transfers through partner institutions. It raised C$130 million at a C$1.33 billion valuation in June 2026, with Mubadala and Shopify founder Tobi Lutke among new backers, and says it serves more than 2.5 million Canadians, per its <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/press-releases/2026/06/11/koho-raises-130-million-at-133b-valuation-to-fund-growth-and-continue-pursuit-of-bank-license/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June 11 announcement</a>. It is pursuing a federal banking licence, subject to ministerial approval.</p>
<h3>Neo Financial</h3>
<p>Calgary's Neo issues credit cards, savings accounts and mortgages, often to people with thin credit files. It closed C$68.5 million of equity in January 2026 to fund a securitization program and has raised more than C$650 million in debt and equity since launch, according to <a href="https://betakit.com/neo-financial-secures-68-5-million-in-equity-as-it-adopts-big-bank-funding-playbook/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetaKit</a>. It reports more than one million customers. Its 2024 round reportedly cut its valuation to US$510 million, a reminder that not every Canadian fintech has re-rated upward.</p>
<h3>Nesto</h3>
<p>Montreal's Nesto is a mortgage platform that also licenses its software to lenders. It raised a C$302 million Series E of primary and secondary capital at a C$1.47 billion valuation in June 2026, with La Caisse among new investors, and says it is profitable with more than C$80 billion of mortgages under administration, per <a href="https://www.lacaisse.com/en/news/pressreleases/nesto-raises-302-million-series-e-147-billion-valuation-accelerate-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">La Caisse's release</a>. KPMG counted the round as the largest Canadian fintech deal of the first half.</p>

<h2>Which Canadian payments and commerce companies lead?</h2>
<p>Shopify is by far the largest Canadian fintech business by payment volume in 2026, processing US$78.1 billion through Shopify Payments in the second quarter alone. Nuvei, taken private by Advent for about US$6.3 billion, and Lightspeed, with US$1.23 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue, are the other Canadian-founded payments heavyweights, both serving merchants worldwide.</p>
<h3>Shopify (Shopify Payments)</h3>
<p>Shopify is rarely called a fintech, but payments are now most of its economics. In the second quarter of 2026 merchants processed US$115.6 billion of GMV, and US$78.1 billion of that ran through Shopify Payments, a 68% penetration rate, up from 64% a year earlier, according to <a href="https://www.ecomcrew.com/shopify-q2-2026-earnings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EcomCrew's breakdown of the results</a>. Revenue rose 34% to US$3.58 billion.</p>
<h3>Nuvei</h3>
<p>Montreal-founded Nuvei processes card and alternative payments for merchants in many markets. Advent International agreed in 2024 to take it private at US$34 a share, valuing it at about US$6.3 billion, when quarterly payment volume was running at US$61.3 billion, as <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/fintech/payments/nuvei-reports-3576-million-revenue-ahead-of-advent-buyout/amp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Magnates reported</a>. As a private company it no longer publishes quarterly figures.</p>
<h3>Lightspeed</h3>
<p>Lightspeed sells point-of-sale software and embedded payments to retailers and restaurants. For the fiscal year to March 31, 2026 it reported revenue of US$1.227 billion, up 14%, and a net loss of US$144.4 million, much narrower than the prior year, per its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001823306/000182330626000024/earningsreleasefy26q4.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results filing</a>. Fourth-quarter payment volume was US$9.6 billion, 42% of transaction volume.</p>

<h2>Which Canadian business finance fintechs are growing fastest?</h2>
<p>Float is the fastest-growing Canadian business finance fintech by funding momentum in 2026, raising C$85 million in June at a valuation up 70% and serving more than 7,500 businesses. Clearco, the e-commerce financier that shrank sharply after 2022, is rebuilding with a US$100 million credit facility from Macquarie announced in August 2026.</p>
<h3>Float</h3>
<p>Toronto's Float offers corporate cards, bill pay and business accounts in Canadian and US dollars. Its C$85 million Series C, led by Inovia Capital on June 25, 2026, came with more than 7,500 active business customers and revenue up more than 120% since its previous round, according to <a href="https://dealroom.co/news/135943-float-raises-c-85m-series-c-led-by-inovia-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dealroom</a>. Float, KOHO and Wise joined Payments Canada as members earlier in 2026.</p>
<h3>Clearco</h3>
<p>Clearco funds inventory and marketing for online brands in exchange for fixed repayments. After a 2021 valuation above US$2 billion, it cut staff and recapitalised in 2023. In August 2026 it secured US$100 million of asset-backed financing from Macquarie for about 400 customers and expects to break even by the fourth quarter of 2026, according to <a href="https://betakit.com/clearco-secures-100-million-usd-for-rescaling-after-difficult-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetaKit</a>.</p>

<h2>What infrastructure do Canadian fintechs depend on?</h2>
<p>Canadian fintechs in 2026 depend on Interac, which handled about 1.6 billion e-Transfers and 7 billion debit transactions in 2025, and on two systems still being built: Payments Canada's Real-Time Rail, expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the consumer-driven banking framework, whose payments phase targets mid-2027.</p>
<h3>Interac</h3>
<p>Interac is a network, not a startup, but it is the rail most Canadian fintechs ride. In 2025 it processed about 7 billion debit transactions and 1.6 billion e-Transfers, with a record 149 million e-Transfers in October, and losses to fraud of about 4 cents per $100 transacted, according to its <a href="https://www.interac.ca/en/company/about/corporate-year-in-review/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate year in review</a>.</p>
<h3>Payments Canada and the Real-Time Rail</h3>
<p>The Real-Time Rail was first targeted for 2019. In mid-2026 the finance minister approved its by-law and rules, which came into force on August 24, 2026, and launch is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, as <a href="https://betakit.com/canadas-real-time-rail-system-will-launch-this-year-after-achieving-critical-milestone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetaKit reported</a>. Our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payment systems around the world</a> shows how late Canada is.</p>
<h3>Consumer-driven banking</h3>
<p>Canada's open banking law is being built in two phases under Bank of Canada oversight. Read-only data sharing has no committed start date, while write access for payments targets mid-2027 and depends on the Real-Time Rail being in wide use, according to <a href="https://www.banq.ai/blog/open-banking-canada-what-is-coming-in-2026-and-2027" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a timeline compiled by Banq</a>. India's approach, covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/">account aggregator explainer</a>, offers a useful contrast.</p>

<h2>How do the leading Canadian fintech companies compare?</h2>
<p>As of October 2026, Canada's fintech leaders range from Shopify, processing tens of billions of US dollars a quarter, to private companies valued between roughly US$500 million and C$10 billion. The table lines up each company's latest dated metric.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Shopify</td><td>Ottawa</td><td>Commerce platform, Shopify Payments</td><td>US$78.1B Payments GMV, Q2 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wealthsimple</td><td>Toronto</td><td>Investing, trading, cash accounts</td><td>C$10B valuation; C$100B AUA (Oct 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>KOHO</td><td>Toronto</td><td>Spending, savings, credit-building</td><td>C$1.33B valuation; 2.5M+ members (Jun 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nesto</td><td>Montreal</td><td>Digital mortgages, lender software</td><td>C$302M Series E at C$1.47B (Jun 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Neo Financial</td><td>Calgary</td><td>Cards, savings, mortgages</td><td>1M+ customers; C$68.5M equity (Jan 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lightspeed</td><td>Montreal</td><td>POS software, embedded payments</td><td>US$1.227B revenue, FY to Mar 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nuvei</td><td>Montreal</td><td>Merchant payment processing</td><td>~US$6.3B take-private by Advent (2024)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Float</td><td>Toronto</td><td>Corporate cards, business accounts</td><td>C$85M Series C; 7,500+ businesses (Jun 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Clearco</td><td>Toronto</td><td>E-commerce financing</td><td>US$100M Macquarie facility (Aug 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interac</td><td>Toronto</td><td>Domestic debit and e-Transfer network</td><td>1.6B e-Transfers in 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>What is a Canadian fintech customer worth? A worked example</h2>
<p>Dividing valuation by customers shows investors in 2026 value a Wealthsimple client at roughly C$3,300 and a KOHO member at roughly C$530. The gap reflects what each customer brings: Wealthsimple clients hold an average of about C$33,000 in assets, while KOHO earns mainly on spending and subscriptions.</p>
<p>The arithmetic is simple. Wealthsimple: C$10 billion divided by 3 million clients is about C$3,333 per client, and C$100 billion of assets over 3 million clients is about C$33,333 each. KOHO: C$1.33 billion divided by 2.5 million members is about C$532 each. Neo: its reported US$510 million valuation over one million customers is roughly US$510 each, close to KOHO once currency is considered.</p>
<p>Now take the subcontractor from the opening, sending C$1,000 to his helpers each week by e-Transfer. At Interac's 2025 fraud rate of about 4 cents per $100, the expected system-wide fraud loss on that C$52,000 a year is around C$21. Low fraud is a big reason the incumbent network is hard to dislodge, and it sets the bar the Real-Time Rail and future open banking payments must clear.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Canada's fintechs have the customers. What they have lacked is the plumbing, and that arrives on someone else's timetable.</blockquote>

<h2>What should you watch in Canadian fintech next?</h2>
<p>Three dated tests will shape Canadian fintech through 2027: whether the Real-Time Rail goes live in the fourth quarter of 2026 as planned, whether KOHO wins its federal banking licence, and whether open banking write access arrives by mid-2027. Each would widen what non-bank firms can offer against the Big Six banks.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Q4 2026:</b> Real-Time Rail launch. A further slip into 2027 would also push back open banking payments.</li>
<li><b>Q4 2026:</b> Clearco's target to reach break-even.</li>
<li><b>Licences:</b> KOHO's bank licence application, subject to ministerial approval, is the one to watch. Neo has not said whether it will seek one.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> Target for the payments phase of consumer-driven banking under Bank of Canada oversight.</li>
<li><b>Cross-border:</b> Canadians sending money abroad will feel faster domestic rails first. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-canada-to-india-remittance/">USA and Canada to India remittances</a> covers that corridor.</li>
</ul>
<p>For comparison with larger markets, see our lists of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-fintech-companies-2026/">leading US fintech companies</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-fintech-companies-2026/">UK fintech companies</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources and may be restated.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/canada-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Crypto and Stablecoin Cards Work: Issuers, Networks, Fees, Rules</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>A plain guide to crypto and stablecoin debit cards: who issues them, how Visa and Mastercard fit in, what happens at checkout, the fees and the rules in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A barista in Lisbon taps a card, the terminal beeps, and a few cents of euro land in the cafe's account the next day. Nothing about that moment tells you the customer was spending dollar stablecoins held in a crypto wallet. That invisibility is the whole design of the crypto card, and it explains why the product has quietly become one of the busiest corners of the digital asset economy.</p>

<h2>The card is ordinary. The account behind it is not</h2>
<p>Strip away the branding and a crypto card is a regular debit or prepaid card running on Visa or Mastercard. The merchant sees a normal card transaction in local currency. What differs is the funding source. Instead of a checking account at a bank, the balance sits in stablecoins or other crypto assets, either with a custodial provider or in the customer's own wallet.</p>
<p>Several companies sit in the chain. A card programme usually involves an <b>issuing bank or licensed principal member</b> of the card network, a <b>programme manager</b> that runs the app and the customer relationship, a <b>processor</b> that handles authorisations, and a <b>crypto custodian or wallet provider</b> holding the assets. Some infrastructure firms bundle several of those roles. Rain, for example, is a Visa principal member, and The Block reported in September 2026 that it had financed roughly $2 billion of card settlement through an onchain credit facility since 2023.</p>

<h2>What happens in the two seconds at the till</h2>
<p>When the card is tapped, the network sends an authorisation request to the issuer's processor, just as it would for any debit card. The processor checks whether the linked crypto balance can cover the amount at the current rate. If it can, the matching amount of stablecoin or crypto is reserved or sold, the authorisation is approved and the merchant gets paid in local currency through normal card settlement.</p>
<p>There are two common models:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Custodial cards.</b> The provider holds your assets and converts them at the moment of purchase. This is fast and simple, but you are trusting a company with your money.</li>
<li><b>Self-custodial cards.</b> Funds stay in your own wallet, and you approve a smart contract that lets the card programme pull a set amount when you spend. You keep control, but you take on the job of protecting your keys. We cover the trade-off in more detail in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">our guide to self-custody versus custodial wallets</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Behind the scenes, the card programme still owes the network money every day. Historically that meant converting crypto into dollars or euros to settle. Increasingly, networks accept settlement in stablecoins directly. Visa said its stablecoin settlement had passed a $20 billion annualised run rate, more than 15 times the year before, according to <a href="https://theblock.co/news/business/2026-09-08-visa-stablecoin-settlement-tops-20-billion-annualized-run-rate-up-more-than-15x-year-over-year-413749" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a> in September 2026.</p>

<h2>How big has this become?</h2>
<p>Card spending is one of the few stablecoin use cases where ordinary consumer behaviour shows up clearly in the data. Analytics firm Artemis estimated in January 2026 that annualised crypto card spending had passed $18 billion, putting it within reach of peer-to-peer stablecoin transfers, as reported by <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/crypto-cards-rival-stablecoin-transfers-as-spending-tops-usd18-billion-artemis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant</a>.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$18B+</b><span>annualised crypto card spend, Artemis, Jan 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>160+</b><span>stablecoin-linked Visa card programmes live</span></div><div class="stat"><b>525%</b><span>growth in net spend on six onchain Visa cards, 2025</span></div></div>
<p>The smaller, fully onchain cards show the same curve. Dune Analytics data cited by <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/net-spend-visa-crypto-cards-increased-by-525-percent-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph</a> showed monthly net spend across six self-custodial Visa cards rising from $14.6 million in January 2025 to $91.3 million in December, with the EtherFi card alone accounting for $55.4 million over the year. Visa told investors it had more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programmes live in its fiscal second quarter of 2026.</p>
<p>Mastercard has been moving too. In March 2026 it launched a Crypto Partner Program with more than 85 companies, including exchanges, wallet providers and stablecoin issuers, aimed at settlement, payouts and consumer payments.</p>

<h2>Where the fees hide</h2>
<p>Crypto cards rarely advertise a single headline charge, because the cost is spread across several layers. When comparing programmes, look at each of these separately:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Conversion spread.</b> If you hold bitcoin or ether, the card sells it at a rate that may sit above or below the market price. With dollar stablecoins this spread is usually thin for dollar purchases.</li>
<li><b>Foreign exchange.</b> Paying in euros from a dollar stablecoin balance involves a currency conversion, and the rate used matters as much as any stated fee. Our explainer on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> shows how to spot the markup.</li>
<li><b>Network and onchain costs.</b> Self-custodial cards may pass on blockchain transaction fees for top-ups or settlement.</li>
<li><b>Card fees.</b> Issuance, monthly, inactivity and ATM charges vary widely.</li>
</ul>
<p>Rewards can offset some of this, but cashback paid in a volatile token is not the same as cashback paid in dollars.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A crypto card is only as cheap as its worst conversion, so price the whole journey, not the advertised fee.</blockquote>

<h2>The rules now apply to the card, and the coin</h2>
<p>Because the card leg runs on Visa and Mastercard, it is regulated like any card product: the issuer needs a bank charter or e-money licence, and the programme must run identity checks and anti-money-laundering controls. What changed in 2025 and 2026 is that the stablecoin leg now has its own rulebook in the largest markets.</p>
<p>In the United States, the GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025, requiring payment stablecoin issuers to hold at least one dollar of permitted reserves for every dollar issued and barring them from paying interest to holders, according to the <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2026-08-20_IN12553_0b329134f6be0cc12f78017358552f4053d52c5e.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congressional Research Service</a>. In the European Union, MiCA treats euro and dollar stablecoins as e-money tokens; by July 2026, 21 authorised issuers across 12 member states were issuing 35 such tokens. Our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS and MiCA</a> goes deeper.</p>
<p>Tax is the piece most users underestimate. In many countries, swapping crypto for goods is treated as a disposal, so a card purchase funded by bitcoin can create a taxable gain or loss. Spending a dollar stablecoin usually produces little or no gain, but the record-keeping obligation can still apply.</p>

<h2>Our view: the card is a bridge, not the destination</h2>
<p>Crypto cards succeed because they ask nothing of the merchant. That is also their limit. Every purchase still passes through interchange, network fees and an issuing bank, so the cost structure looks a lot like the card system it rides on. The more interesting shift is happening underneath, as networks start settling in stablecoins and programme managers fund cards from onchain credit. If that plumbing keeps maturing, the card may end up as the familiar front end for money that moves very differently behind the counter.</p>
<p class="note">This article is for information only and is not financial or tax advice. Card features and fees change often; check current terms with any provider.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Latin America Stablecoin Adoption: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico Data</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/latin-america-stablecoin-adoption/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/latin-america-stablecoin-adoption/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Brazil received $318.8B in crypto in a year and stablecoins topped half of exchange buys in Argentina and Brazil. What drives LatAm adoption, with data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/latin-america-stablecoin-adoption.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A software developer in Cordoba invoices a client in Austin every month. Five years ago she would have waited for a wire, then watched the official exchange rate take a slice before the pesos reached her account. Today she is paid in dollar stablecoins, keeps most of the balance in that form, and converts only what she needs for rent and groceries. Multiply her by a few million people across Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico, and you get the most stablecoin-intensive region on earth. Chainalysis found that stablecoins accounted for more than half of local-currency exchange purchases in both Argentina and Brazil between July 2024 and June 2025.</p>

<p>This piece looks at what the data says about each major market, why the drivers differ from country to country, and how stablecoins are now competing with, and connecting to, Brazil's Pix and the region's remittance channels.</p>

<h2>The regional numbers</h2>

<p>Chainalysis's <a href="https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/latin-america-crypto-adoption-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Latin America report</a> recorded nearly $1.5 trillion in crypto transaction volume across the region from July 2022 to June 2025. Monthly volume climbed from $20.8 billion in July 2022 to a record $87.7 billion in December 2024, before easing to $47.9 billion in June 2025. That peak lined up with the global crypto rally at the end of 2024, a reminder that some regional activity is speculation rather than payments.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$318.8B</b><span>Crypto value received by Brazil, Jul 2024 to Jun 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>50%+</b><span>Stablecoin share of local-currency exchange buys in Argentina and Brazil</span></div><div class="stat"><b>90%+</b><span>Share of Brazilian crypto flows linked to stablecoins, per officials</span></div></div>

<p>The country breakdown is striking. Brazil received $318.8 billion, nearly a third of regional activity, after growth of almost 110 percent. Argentina came second with $93.9 billion, followed by Mexico at $71.2 billion, Venezuela at $44.6 billion and Colombia at $44.2 billion.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>Value received (Jul 2024 to Jun 2025)</th><th>Main driver</th><th>Stablecoin signal</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Brazil</td><td>$318.8B</td><td>Business payments, investment, FX</td><td>Officials say over 90% of crypto flows are stablecoin-related</td></tr>
<tr><td>Argentina</td><td>$93.9B</td><td>Inflation hedge, savings, freelancer income</td><td>Stablecoins over half of peso exchange purchases</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mexico</td><td>$71.2B</td><td>Remittances and US trade</td><td>Activity relatively stable, no share published</td></tr>
<tr><td>Venezuela</td><td>$44.6B</td><td>Dollar substitute in daily commerce</td><td>USDT widely used as everyday money</td></tr>
<tr><td>Colombia</td><td>$44.2B</td><td>Remittances, savings</td><td>Growing retail use</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Argentina: dollarisation by app</h2>

<p>Argentines have saved in dollars for generations, in cash under the mattress or in safe deposit boxes. Stablecoins are the digital continuation of that habit. They offer a dollar balance without a US bank account, accessible from a phone, and usable for payments at a growing number of local merchants through apps that convert at the point of sale.</p>

<p>Inflation has fallen sharply but remains high by any international standard. Argentina's statistics agency <a href="https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/ipc_10_25A89E33268F.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INDEC</a> reported consumer prices up 31.8 percent in the year to September 2025, with a monthly rise of 2.1 percent. That is a big improvement on recent triple-digit years, but it still means peso savings that earn nothing lose a quarter of their purchasing power in a year. Chainalysis cites persistent inflation, currency volatility and capital controls as the forces behind regional stablecoin demand, and Argentina is the clearest case of all three.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">In Argentina, a stablecoin is not a crypto bet. It is a savings account in the only currency people trust.</blockquote>

<h2>Brazil: the business and investment market</h2>

<p>Brazil is a different story. The real is volatile but not in crisis, and Brazilians have one of the best domestic payment systems in the world in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix</a>. Yet Brazil is by far the largest crypto market in Latin America, and officials have said more than 90 percent of the flows are stablecoin-related.</p>

<p>Why? Mostly cross-border and business use. Stablecoins give Brazilian companies and investors a faster, cheaper way to move dollars for imports, offshore investments and international services than traditional FX contracts. That is also why the Banco Central do Brasil has paid close attention. Under the Brazilian Virtual Assets Law, the central bank became the AML authority for crypto firms, and its consultations 109, 110 and 111 of 2024 set out to bring crypto service providers, including stablecoin transactions with an FX character, into a licensed framework. Chainalysis expected final rules by the end of 2025. The direction is clear: Brazil wants stablecoin flows inside its regulated FX system, not beside it.</p>

<p>Pix and stablecoins are complements more than rivals. Pix handles domestic real payments, <a href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/radioagencia-nacional/economia/audio/2025-06/pix-bate-recorde-e-registra-quase-280-milhoes-de-transacoes-em-um-dia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">nearly 280 million on a record day</a> in June 2025, with more than 175 million users. Stablecoins handle the dollar leg. Most exchanges in Brazil use Pix as the on-ramp and off-ramp, so a user can move from reais to a dollar token and back within minutes. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payments comparison</a> for how Pix stacks up globally.</p>

<h2>Mexico: remittances meet stablecoins</h2>

<p>Mexico's crypto story is tied to the United States. It is one of the world's largest remittance recipients, receiving $61.8 billion in 2025 according to Banco de Mexico data <a href="https://www.elimparcial.com/dinero/2026/02/03/mientras-donald-trump-va-contra-los-migrantes-en-estados-unidos-mexico-recibio-61-mil-791-millones-de-dolares-en-remesas-en-2025-reporto-banco-de-mexico/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by El Imparcial</a>, down 4.6 percent from 2024. Local exchanges have built remittance services that take dollars in the US, move them as stablecoins, and pay out pesos in Mexico through the domestic SPEI system.</p>

<p>Chainalysis describes Mexican activity as relatively stable rather than booming. That makes sense. The peso has been comparatively strong, so the savings motive that drives Argentina is weaker. Stablecoins in Mexico are mainly a payments tool, competing with money transfer operators on the US to Mexico corridor, which we cover in detail in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/">the US-Mexico remittance corridor</a>.</p>

<h2>Venezuela and Colombia: two kinds of need</h2>

<p>Venezuela shows the extreme version of stablecoin adoption. After years of extreme inflation and restricted access to the international banking system, USDT functions as everyday money for many businesses, used to price goods, pay suppliers and hold savings. The $44.6 billion received is large relative to the size of the economy.</p>

<p>Colombia, at $44.2 billion, is closer to the regional middle: a stable but depreciating currency, large inflows from family members abroad and growing retail interest in holding digital dollars. Together they show that stablecoin adoption is not one phenomenon. It is a response to different failures in local money and banking.</p>

<p>That matters for anyone building or regulating in the region. A product designed for Argentine savers, who want to hold dollars for months, looks nothing like one designed for Mexican remittance recipients, who want pesos within minutes, or for Brazilian importers, who need a dollar leg for a single invoice. The data from Chainalysis mixes all three into a single headline figure. Read country by country, the region is really three separate stablecoin markets sharing a currency peg. For a primer on how the tokens themselves work, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one year of savings in Argentina</h2>

<p>Here is a simple illustration using INDEC's inflation figure. It is not investment advice, and the outcome for any real saver depends on exchange rate moves and fees.</p>

<ol>
<li>A saver holds ARS 1,000,000 in a non-interest current account for the 12 months to September 2025.</li>
<li>With consumer prices up 31.8 percent, the money's purchasing power at the end is 1,000,000 divided by 1.318, about ARS 759,000 in starting-year prices. She has lost roughly 24 percent in real terms.</li>
<li>If instead she had converted to a dollar stablecoin at the start, her balance would hold its dollar value. Whether that beats the peso in local purchasing power depends on how much the peso depreciated against the dollar over the same year, and on US inflation.</li>
<li>She also faces costs: the exchange spread when buying, any fee for converting back, and the risks of the platform and the token itself, which we discuss in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">a history of stablecoin depegs</a>.</li>
</ol>

<p>The example shows why demand is so persistent. Even in a year of falling inflation, idle peso balances lost about a quarter of their value. When the alternative is that certain loss, a few percentage points of conversion cost and some platform risk look acceptable to many people.</p>

<h2>Risks and the policy response</h2>

<p>Mass stablecoin use creates real problems for central banks. Moody's has <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/stablecoin-risks-cryptoization-rules-economies-moodys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warned about cryptoization</a>, where dollar tokens weaken a central bank's control over rates and the exchange rate and pull deposits out of local banks. Latin America is among the regions where Moody's sees the fastest adoption. We examine the deposit question in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/">the stablecoins and bank deposits debate</a>.</p>

<p>There is also concentration risk. USDT, with around $184 billion in circulation as of October 2026 and about 60 percent of the market, is the token most associated with everyday use in Argentina and Venezuela. USDC follows at about $73 billion. Total stablecoin supply was about $306 billion as of October 2026, so two issuers account for the large majority of the digital dollars Latin Americans hold. A problem at either issuer would hit Latin American savers harder than almost anyone else, because for many of them the token is not a trade but their savings.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Brazil, 2026-2027:</b> how the central bank's crypto and FX rules are applied in practice, especially reporting for stablecoin transfers to self-custody wallets.</li>
<li><b>Monthly INDEC releases:</b> Argentina's inflation path is the main variable for peso-to-stablecoin demand.</li>
<li><b>Monthly Banxico data:</b> whether the US-Mexico corridor keeps shrinking, and how much of it shifts to digital routes after the <a href="https://rsmus.com/insights/tax-alerts/2025/excise-tax-on-cross-border-remittances.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US 1 percent tax on cash-funded remittances</a> took effect in January 2026.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> Chainalysis's next geography report, which will show whether Brazil's growth continued after the 2024 peak.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> regional rules for exchanges and issuers. Expect more licensing regimes for exchanges and issuers across the region.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains market data and regulation. It is not financial or tax advice; rules on holding and converting digital assets vary by country, so check with a qualified adviser.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/latin-america-stablecoin-adoption.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>International Mobile Recharge Explained: How Top-Ups Work</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/international-mobile-recharge-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/international-mobile-recharge-explained/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>How international mobile recharge works in 2026: who moves airtime and data across borders, what top-ups really cost, the scams to avoid and the rules.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/international-mobile-recharge-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A grandmother in a village outside Sylhet gets a text from her operator: her balance has been topped up. Her grandson sent it from a bus depot in Doha, between shifts, and it took him less time than buying tea. No bank was involved, no exchange house queue, no account number. International mobile recharge is the smallest and most frequent form of cross-border money, and for millions of families it is how support arrives between the bigger monthly transfers. It is also a business with a wholesale layer that almost no customer ever sees.</p>

<h2>What is international mobile recharge?</h2>
<p>International mobile recharge, also called airtime top-up, is the purchase of prepaid credit or a data bundle for a phone number in another country. The sender pays in their own currency; the recipient's operator credits the line in local currency, usually within seconds. In 2026 it is sold by money transfer apps, telecom retailers and specialist top-up apps, almost all of which rely on a few wholesale aggregators.</p>
<p>The product exists because most phones in developing countries run on prepaid plans. India alone had 1,282.38 million mobile subscriptions at the end of June 2026, according to <a href="https://trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-10/PR_No135of2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TRAI's quarterly performance indicators</a>, and the regulator tracks prepaid as its own segment, with prepaid users averaging 1,055 minutes of calls a month. We looked for a current official prepaid share of connections for India, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Philippines; the TRAI and GSMA publications we checked report prepaid revenue and usage but not a subscriber split, so we do not quote a percentage. Prepaid users buy credit in small amounts, often weekly, which is exactly the type of payment that migrant relatives are well placed to cover.</p>
<p>The top-up itself is not a money transfer in the normal sense. The recipient cannot withdraw it as cash. What arrives is a telecom service, which is why top-ups often sit outside the paperwork and identity checks that apply to remittances. That simplicity is the appeal, and also the reason for some of the risks below.</p>

<h2>How does an international top-up actually work?</h2>
<p>An international top-up passes through three layers: the retail app or website where the sender pays, a wholesale aggregator that holds connections to hundreds of operators, and the destination operator that credits the line. The aggregator buys airtime at a discount, the retailer adds its margin, and the operator receives settlement in local currency.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Sender:</b> picks a country and enters the number. The app usually detects the operator and shows a list of fixed amounts or data plans.</li>
<li><b>Retailer:</b> charges a card, bank transfer or wallet in the sender's currency, then calls an aggregator's API.</li>
<li><b>Aggregator:</b> routes the order to the right operator, either through a direct agreement or a local distributor, and settles with it.</li>
<li><b>Operator:</b> credits the prepaid line and sends the recipient a text. Some products deliver a PIN that has to be redeemed instead.</li>
</ol>
<p>Delivery is quick. Western Union's top-up page, operated with Ding, says credit usually arrives a few seconds after payment, in a description on its <a href="https://westernunion.com/gb/en/ding.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UK site</a>. Postpaid bills are a different product: they need a biller connection, not an airtime API, and India has its own bill-payment network, which we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect explained</a>.</p>

<h2>Who are the wholesale players behind mobile top-ups?</h2>
<p>The main wholesale aggregators for international mobile recharge in 2026 are DT One, Ding and Reloadly, with smaller players such as Prepay Nation. DT One, the former TransferTo, says it connects to more than 900 operators and billers in 180 countries. Ding's network is described as 700-plus operators on Western Union's site. Reloadly says it reaches over 800 operators. All of these are company claims.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Aggregator</th><th>Base</th><th>Model</th><th>Reach claimed (date)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>DT One</td><td>Singapore</td><td>B2B network for airtime, data, eSIMs, vouchers</td><td>900+ operators and billers, 180 countries (2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ding</td><td>Ireland</td><td>Consumer app and B2B supply to remitters</td><td>700+ operators, 150+ countries (Western Union page, 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Reloadly</td><td>Spain</td><td>Developer API for airtime, data, gift cards</td><td>800+ operators, 140+ countries (company site, 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Prepay Nation</td><td>USA (Berwyn, Pennsylvania)</td><td>Wholesale prepaid distribution</td><td>150+ countries (company release, Jun 2026)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h3>DT One and the TransferTo story</h3>
<p>The history explains how the industry is structured. TransferTo began as a mobile top-up business in the mid-2000s and later added cross-border payments. In February 2019 it <a href="https://www.dtone.com/transferto-announces-rebrand-with-the-creation-of-two-market-defining-companies-dt-one-and-thunes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">split into two companies</a>: DT One kept airtime and rewards, with more than 1,000 partners in 160 countries at the time, and Thunes became a payments network. Today DT One's <a href="https://www.dtone.com/network" target="_blank" rel="noopener">network page</a> lists more than 900 operators and billers in 180 countries and over 23,000 products, from airtime to eSIMs and prepaid utility vouchers. Private equity firm <a href="https://apis.pe/companies/dt-one/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apis Partners invested in May 2022</a> and names MoneyGram, Western Union and WorldRemit among the money transfer firms it works with.</p>

<h3>Ding</h3>
<p>Ding, founded in Dublin in 2006, runs its own consumer app and supplies other brands. When Pollen Street Capital bought a majority stake in September 2021, Ding said it had sent almost half a billion top-ups, according to the <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210902005401/en/Pollen-Street-Capital-Acquires-Majority-Stake-in-World%E2%80%99s-Largest-Mobile-Top-up-Service-Ding" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deal announcement</a>. In 2023 it began powering Western Union's top-ups in Canada, and in December 2024 Intermex launched top-ups to more than 130 countries through Ding, whose network then included over 600 operators, per <a href="https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30020515/international-money-express-inc-intermex-expands-connectivity-launches-international-top-up-services-across-130-countries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intermex's release</a>. Western Union's 2026 page describes a network of more than 700 operators in 150-plus countries.</p>

<h3>Reloadly</h3>
<p>Reloadly, founded in Barcelona in 2018, sells a developer API rather than a consumer app. Its <a href="https://www.reloadly.com/products/data-bundle-api/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">product pages</a> in 2026 claim more than 800 operators, with country counts of 140-plus in one place and 170-plus in another, and it lets developers send local-currency amounts in some African markets. Prepay Nation, based in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, says it operates in more than 150 countries; in June 2026 it added Airtel Malawi top-ups and data bundles to its partner network, according to a company release.</p>

<h2>What does an international top-up really cost?</h2>
<p>An international top-up costs the face value of the credit plus the retailer's margin and any exchange-rate markup, which are usually bundled into one price. Reloadly's own guidance to resellers in 2020 described typical margins of 5% to 10%, with bulk discounts of 6% to 15% from operators. Fees are rarely shown separately, so the true cost is the gap between what you pay and the local value received.</p>

<h3>Worked example: a $10 top-up paid in euros</h3>
<p>Reloadly's developer documentation shows a sample order from a euro-paying sender to a dollar-denominated operator at an exchange rate of 1.10278, with fixed local amounts such as $5, $10 and $20. Use those figures:</p>
<ul>
<li>A $10 top-up at 1.10278 is worth about <b>€9.07</b> at that rate.</li>
<li>If a retailer charges <b>€10.00</b> for it, the sender pays €0.93 more than the credit is worth, a cost of about <b>9.3%</b>.</li>
<li>At a 5% margin the price would be about €9.52; at 10%, about €9.98.</li>
</ul>
<p>Compare that with the World Bank's <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">global average of 6.36%</a> to send $200 in Q3 2025. A small top-up is often more expensive in percentage terms than a cash transfer, which is the price of convenience on a very small amount. The easiest check is to compare the local credit a recipient gets with what the operator sells the same credit for at home.</p>
<p>Taxes can shave the amount further. Reloadly gives a Nigerian example in which a tax is deducted from a ₦20 top-up; at 1%, the line would receive ₦19.80. Local-currency products that are treated as domestic sales may avoid that deduction, depending on the country.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>900+</b><span>operators and billers on DT One's network (2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>5-10%</b><span>typical reseller margin cited by Reloadly (2020)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>6.36%</b><span>World Bank average cost to send $200 (Q3 2025)</span></div></div>

<h2>How do people recharge an Indian mobile from the UAE, USA or UK?</h2>
<p>To recharge an Indian prepaid mobile from abroad in 2026, a sender uses a remittance or top-up app that supports Indian operators, enters the +91 number, picks a plan and pays by card or bank transfer. The plan is credited in rupees within seconds. Many apps show Indian operators' bundled data plans rather than plain talk-time.</p>
<p>The corridors that matter most mirror remittances. India received $135.46 billion of remittances in 2024-25, and the US and UAE were the two largest sources in RBI's 2023-24 survey, at 27.7% and 19.2%. Top-ups are a rounding error against those sums, but they are frequent, which is why money transfer apps bundle them: a customer who recharges a parent's phone every week opens the app far more often than one who sends money monthly. For bigger household costs, our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">bill payments for NRIs</a> covers electricity, insurance and school fees.</p>
<p>The same pattern holds for the Philippines, where overseas workers top up family lines alongside regular transfers (see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/">Philippines remittances</a>), and across Africa, where airtime and mobile money sit side by side (see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa and mobile money</a>).</p>

<h2>What top-up scams should senders watch for?</h2>
<p>The most common mobile recharge scams in 2026 are fake websites offering heavily discounted credit, messages asking a relative to top up an unfamiliar number in an emergency, and requests from strangers to pay in airtime because it is fast and hard to reverse. A top-up sent to the wrong number generally cannot be pulled back.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Too-good discounts:</b> a site selling credit well below face value is often taking card details, not delivering airtime.</li>
<li><b>"New number" messages:</b> a text claiming a family member has changed phones and needs credit urgently. Call the old number first.</li>
<li><b>Airtime as payment:</b> fraudsters ask for top-ups because they can resell credit quickly and there is no chargeback route through the operator.</li>
<li><b>Wrong digits:</b> operators can deliver credit in seconds, and reversals depend on the retailer's policy, which may offer none.</li>
</ul>
<p>Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> covers the wider patterns.</p>

<h2>How is international mobile top-up regulated?</h2>
<p>In most countries international mobile top-up is regulated as the sale of a telecom service, not as a money transfer, so sellers usually do not need a remittance licence. Operators set the terms, consumer and tax rules apply, and the card or bank payment the sender makes is regulated as normal. Rules tighten when airtime starts to behave like money.</p>
<p>That last point matters. Where credit can be transferred between users or cashed out, it begins to look like stored value, which central banks oversee. Mobile money began in exactly that space, and regulators separated it from airtime by licensing e-money. Two concrete examples show where the lines sit. In the EU, Article 3(l) of the second Payment Services Directive, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eudr/2015/2366/article/3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PSD2</a>, takes payments made through a telecom provider for digital content and voice-based services out of payments regulation only while each transaction stays at or below EUR 50 and a subscriber's monthly total at or below EUR 300; the UK's payment rules were built on the same directive. In the US, FinCEN's 2011 <a href="https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-issues-prepaid-access-final-rule" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prepaid access rule</a> lists mobile phones among prepaid devices and puts some providers and sellers under anti-money-laundering duties, while exempting products of $1,000 or less and closed-loop products of $2,000 or less. Whether a given top-up product falls inside either regime depends on its design. Taxes are also local: a country can levy duty on airtime sold from abroad differently from a domestic sale, which is why some aggregators push local-currency products. Senders should check the terms of the service they use; this is general information, not legal advice.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A top-up is the only cross-border payment most families receive without filling in a single form.</blockquote>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Data over talk-time:</b> DT One now sells eSIMs and data alongside airtime, and recipients increasingly want data bundles. Expect more apps to lead with data plans through 2027.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin wallets in the same apps:</b> Sendwave launched a USDC-based dollar wallet in October 2025, and Thunes enabled payouts to stablecoin wallets the same month. Top-ups could become one more thing paid from a digital dollar balance.</li>
<li><b>Bundled bills:</b> DT One already lists prepaid utility vouchers for electricity and water. The line between top-up apps and cross-border bill payment is blurring, as we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/">paying utility bills across borders</a>.</li>
<li><b>Money transfer app bundling:</b> as Remitly, Western Union and others fight for daily engagement in 2026, top-ups are one of the cheapest ways to keep customers opening the app.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This article explains how international mobile recharge works and does not recommend any specific app or provider. Figures are as reported by the linked sources; vendor claims are labelled as such.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/international-mobile-recharge-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Stablecoin Issuers Make Money: Tether&#x27;s $10B Year vs Circle</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>Stablecoin issuers earn interest on reserves they never pay out. Here&#x27;s how Tether made over $10B in 2025 and why Circle hands much of its income to Coinbase.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Hand a stablecoin issuer one dollar and it hands you back one token. It then buys a US Treasury bill with your dollar and keeps the interest. You get nothing extra, by design and, in the United States, by law. Multiply that by a few hundred billion dollars and you have one of the most profitable business models in finance. Yet the two biggest issuers, running nearly identical models, end up with very different results.</p>

<h2>The basic model: borrow at zero, lend to the government</h2>
<p>A fully reserved stablecoin is economically a deposit that pays no interest. The issuer holds cash, short-dated Treasury bills and overnight repurchase agreements against every token. When short-term rates sit around 3.5%, each billion dollars of tokens in circulation earns tens of millions a year in interest.</p>
<p>Holders cannot claim a share. America's GENIUS Act bars licensed issuers from paying interest or yield to holders simply for holding the coin, a point we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries/">our piece on yield-bearing stablecoins</a>. That leaves the issuer with two levers: grow the float, and decide how much of the interest to share with whoever helps it grow.</p>
<p>That second lever is the whole story of how Tether and Circle diverged.</p>

<h2>Tether: the money machine that keeps most of it</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$10B+</b><span>Tether net profit in 2025, per its BDO attestation</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$908M</b><span>Circle's payout to Coinbase in 2024</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>3.48%</b><span>Circle's reserve return rate, Q2 2026</span></div>
</div>
<p>Tether reported more than $10 billion of net profit for 2025, according to its year-end attestation prepared by BDO. That was down about 23% from roughly $13 billion in 2024 as interest rates fell, but it remains an extraordinary sum for a company of its size. At the end of 2025 it held more than $122 billion of US Treasuries directly and over $141 billion including indirect exposure such as reverse repos, against about $186 billion of USDT in circulation.</p>
<p>The quarterly figures for 2026 show the same engine running a little cooler. According to its second-quarter attestation, released on 31 July 2026, Tether earned about $1.5 billion in the quarter and held about $115 billion of Treasury bills. Its reserves also include more than 146 tonnes of gold, valued near $18.8 billion, and roughly $5.8 billion of bitcoin. Falling prices for those two assets helped cut its excess reserve buffer from $8.2 billion in March to about $4.1 billion in June, as reported by <a href="https://stablecoininsider.org/tether-q2-2026-reserve-buffer-halved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stablecoin Insider</a>.</p>
<p>Why does Tether keep so much? Because it does not pay for distribution. USDT became the default dollar on Tron and on many offshore exchanges years ago, and that position renews itself. Nobody needs to be paid to list it.</p>
<p>The trade-off is risk appetite. Gold and bitcoin in the reserve mix add upside but also volatility, which is part of why S&amp;P Global cut its assessment of USDT's ability to hold its peg to "weak" in November 2025. Tether disputed the rating. Investors have also been cautious about pricing the business: reports in early 2026 said Tether had scaled back fundraising talks from as much as $20 billion at a $500 billion valuation to about $5 billion after pushback, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/388404/tether-floats-5-billion-raise-after-investor-pushback-on-500-billion-valuation-target-ft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</p>

<h2>Circle: a great business that rents its shelf space</h2>
<p>Circle's model starts the same way. In 2024 it booked about $1.68 billion of revenue, more than 99% of it from interest on USDC reserves. The difference is what happened next: it paid Coinbase about $908 million that year.</p>
<p>The arrangement, disclosed in Circle's IPO filing, gives Coinbase all the reserve income on USDC held on its own platform plus half of the residual income on USDC held elsewhere. Circle confirmed in August 2026 that the agreement had renewed on existing terms through 2029. Payments to distributors took about 40% of Circle's revenue in 2022, about half in 2023 and more than 60% in 2024.</p>
<p>Scale has not changed the ratio much. For the second quarter of 2026, Circle reported $701 million of total revenue and reserve income, of which $668 million came from reserves. Distribution, transaction and other costs were $412 million, or about 59% of revenue, and net income from continuing operations was $48 million. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $2.7 billion according to <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Circle's results release</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A stablecoin issuer is a bank with no interest bill, until it has to pay someone to put its coin on the shelf.</blockquote>

<h2>The rate problem</h2>
<p>Both businesses are leveraged to one variable they do not control: the short-term interest rate. Circle's reserve return rate fell to 3.48% in the second quarter of 2026, down 66 basis points from a year earlier.</p>
<p>Some rough arithmetic makes the exposure concrete. On about $73 billion of reserves, every quarter-point cut in rates removes roughly $180 million of annual interest income before any distribution payments. On Tether's larger Treasury book the hit is bigger in dollars, although its lower payout ratio means it keeps a larger share of what remains.</p>
<p>That is why both companies talk constantly about other revenue. Circle reported $34 million of other revenue in the second quarter of 2026 from subscriptions, services and transaction fees, and it launched its own Arc blockchain in September. Tether holds more than $20 billion of proprietary investments outside the USDT reserves. Neither has yet built a second engine anywhere near the size of the first.</p>

<h2>The new entrants are copying Coinbase, not Tether</h2>
<p>The most telling development of 2026 is that newcomers are designing around Circle's problem by giving distributors equity instead of a revenue cut. Open USD, which launched on 30 September 2026, is owned in equal stakes by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Shopify and Coinbase, with partners sharing most of the reserve income and the issuer keeping a small management fee. Bank consortia planning their own tokens are following similar logic.</p>
<p>The lesson is that reserve income is a commodity. Any regulated issuer can buy Treasury bills. What is scarce is the place where people actually hold and spend the dollar token, whether that is an exchange, a wallet, a checkout page or a payroll platform. Whoever controls that spot will capture most of the interest, whatever name is on the token. We look at how public investors are valuing this in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/">our analysis of Circle's first 16 months as a listed company</a>, and at the two leading coins in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>What it means for everyday users</h2>
<p>For someone sending money from Kuwait City to Kollam, none of this shows up as a line item. But it explains three things. First, why issuers fight so hard for listings and partnerships. Second, why some apps offer "rewards" on stablecoin balances: they are often passing on part of a distribution payment, which regulators are now scrutinising. Third, why fees on the user side can fall toward zero: when the float itself earns 3% to 4%, the transfer can be priced as a loss leader.</p>
<p class="note">Company figures are taken from issuer attestations, results releases and press reports cited above. This article is not investment advice.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>US Crypto Market Structure Law 2026: CLARITY Act, SEC vs CFTC</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-crypto-market-structure-law/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-crypto-market-structure-law/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Where the US CLARITY Act stands in 2026: House and Senate votes, the SEC and CFTC split, stablecoin rewards, DeFi, and what agencies are doing without a law.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/us-crypto-market-structure-law.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 15 September 2026, the US Senate voted 49 to 50 on whether to move ahead with the CLARITY Act. The bill needed 60. Within days, the chairs of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission were promising to write the rules themselves. That vote, and what followed it, tells you most of what you need to know about American crypto regulation in 2026: Congress has written the outline, and the agencies are now drawing inside it without waiting for a signature.</p>

<p>This piece explains what the market structure bill would do, how far it got, the fault lines that stopped it, and what actually changes for exchanges, token issuers and users while the law sits unfinished.</p>

<h2>What "market structure" means and why it matters</h2>

<p>The US already has a stablecoin law. The GENIUS Act cleared the House 308 to 122 on 17 July 2025 and was signed the next day, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2025-07-17-us-house-votes-on-crypto-legislation-sending-stablecoin-genius-act-to-trumps-desk-clarity-to-senate-363230" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. That law governs who may issue a payment stablecoin and what reserves must back it. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA rules</a> covers it in detail.</p>

<p>Market structure is the bigger, messier question: for every other token, who is the regulator? If a token is a security, the SEC governs its sale and the venues that trade it. If it is a commodity, the CFTC polices fraud and manipulation, but until recently had no direct authority over spot trading at all. For a decade that ambiguity was settled by lawsuits rather than rules. The CLARITY Act tries to replace case-by-case enforcement with a statute that sorts tokens into categories and assigns each one a regulator.</p>

<h2>What the House passed in July 2025</h2>

<p>The House approved the CLARITY Act on 17 July 2025 by 294 to 134, with every Republican and dozens of Democrats in favour. According to The Block's <a href="https://www.theblock.co/learn/regulation/what-is-the-clarity-act-404536" target="_blank" rel="noopener">explainer</a>, the bill divides digital assets into categories including digital commodities, stablecoins and tokenised securities, with investment contracts still handled under SEC rules. It sets benchmarks for when a network is decentralised enough that its token stops being treated as a security, and treats DeFi protocols as infrastructure rather than intermediaries that must register.</p>

<p>For centralised platforms the House text required federal registration, retail disclosures and segregation of customer funds from company money. One concern raised at the time: decentralised exchanges would not get the same federal pre-emption over state law, leaving them exposed to 50 state regimes.</p>

<h2>The Senate's version and the three fights</h2>

<p>The Senate split the work between two committees. Agriculture, which oversees the CFTC, advanced its draft in January 2026 on party lines. Banking took longer, stalled for months over stablecoin rewards, then voted 15 to 9 on 14 May 2026 to advance its bill, with Democratic senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks supplying the decisive votes, per <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-05-14-senate-banking-committee-advances-landmark-crypto-market-structure-bill-garners-some-democratic-support-401341" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. More than 100 amendments had been filed.</p>

<p>Three disputes then dominated the summer.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Stablecoin rewards.</b> Banks argue that exchanges paying "rewards" on stablecoin balances are offering deposit interest without being banks, and that this will drain community bank deposits. The compromise text bans passive yield paid by issuers and platforms while allowing activity-based incentives, and the final September draft added an 18-month "circuit breaker" the Treasury Secretary could trigger if stablecoins cause substantial deposit outflows. Bank groups said that kicks in too late. Our explainer on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/">stablecoins and bank deposits debate</a> sets out both sides.</li>
<li><b>Ethics.</b> Democrats wanted limits on senior officials, including the President, profiting from crypto ventures. A deal announced in July barred officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, but left enforcement with the Justice Department. A later draft gave state attorneys general a role, which critics still called unenforceable.</li>
<li><b>Developers and DeFi.</b> The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, folded into the bill, says non-custodial developers are not money transmitters. Changes to how it protects developers from criminal liability split even the bill's supporters.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">The bill did not die over what a token is. It died over who gets to profit from one.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: the 60-vote arithmetic</h2>

<p>Senate procedure means a bill like this needs 60 votes to end debate and proceed. Here is how the numbers looked on 15 September 2026, based on <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-15-this-one-stings-clarity-act-fails-senate-is-cryptos-biggest-regulatory-push-dead-415135" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block's account</a> of the vote.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>The tally:</b> 49 yes, 50 no. Senator Thom Tillis voted yes, then switched to no, a procedural move that allows him to file a motion to reconsider. Counting him, the bill had 50 supporters.</li>
<li><b>The gap:</b> 60 minus 50 leaves 10 votes short, almost all of which would have to come from Democrats.</li>
<li><b>The swing bloc:</b> the two Democrats who carried the bill through Banking, Gallego and Alsobrooks, had said they would not vote for it without adequate ethics language. Senator Mark Warner said the provision fell well short.</li>
<li><b>The calendar:</b> even had the Senate passed it, the text differs from the House bill, so it must go back to the House, which was not expected to act until after the 3 November 2026 midterm elections. The day before the vote, TD Cowen put the odds of enactment in 2026 at 25%.</li>
</ol>

<p>Compare that with the House margin of 294 to 134, or about 69% in favour. The Senate result was roughly 49% of those voting. The policy content was broadly bipartisan; the politics of the moment were not.</p>

<h2>Plan B: the agencies move without Congress</h2>

<p>The more consequential story of 2026 may be what the regulators did while Congress argued. The SEC, under Chairman Paul Atkins, and the CFTC, under Chairman Michael Selig, who took office in December 2025, announced a joint effort called Project Crypto in January 2026, with Selig directing staff to work on joint codification of an SEC "token taxonomy" for deciding which tokens are securities, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-01-29-cftc-and-sec-join-forces-on-project-crypto-to-modernize-rules-as-congress-works-on-digital-asset-legislation-387730" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. In March 2026 the two agencies issued guidance saying most cryptocurrencies are not securities.</p>

<p>Then came concrete rules:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Listed spot crypto.</b> Following September 2025 joint SEC-CFTC guidance, Bitnomial became the first CFTC-registered exchange to list leveraged spot crypto products in December 2025, per <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2025-12-04-new-golden-age-cftcs-pham-announces-regulated-crypto-spot-trading-has-arrived-381386" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</li>
<li><b>SEC innovation exemption.</b> On 17 September 2026, two days after the Senate vote, the SEC released a five-year exemption that lets "tokenised securities venues" offer onchain trading of certain tokenised stocks without being defined as exchanges, and lets some automated liquidity providers avoid dealer registration. Synthetic instruments are excluded and issuers can block their shares, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-17-sec-releases-innovation-exemption-415324" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block detailed</a>.</li>
<li><b>CFTC Regulation CTX and CAM.</b> On 5 October 2026 the CFTC launched rulemaking for a federal framework for leveraged and margined retail crypto trading, including a possible "crypto asset market" category of registered exchange, as an alternative to state licensing. It cannot force all spot crypto onto CFTC venues without Congress, according to <a href="http://theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-05-cftc-rulemaking-leveraged-retail-crypto-trading-regulation-ctx-cam-417701" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>The SEC's July 2026 regulatory agenda also flagged amendments to broker-dealer net capital, customer protection and recordkeeping rules to address crypto assets, plus possible safe harbours for token offerings.</p>

<h2>Law versus rulemaking: what each route delivers</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Issue</th><th>CLARITY Act (if enacted)</th><th>Agency route (2025-26)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Which tokens are securities</td><td>Statutory categories and decentralisation benchmarks</td><td>SEC token taxonomy and March 2026 SEC-CFTC guidance</td></tr>
<tr><td>Spot trading of non-security tokens</td><td>Broad CFTC authority; federal registration for exchanges</td><td>Leveraged spot on CFTC-registered venues; Regulation CTX/CAM proposed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tokenised stocks onchain</td><td>Tokenised securities stay with the SEC</td><td>Five-year SEC innovation exemption from Sept 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Stablecoin rewards</td><td>Passive yield banned; activity rewards allowed; Treasury circuit breaker</td><td>No new statute beyond the GENIUS Act</td></tr>
<tr><td>Non-custodial developers</td><td>Not money transmitters (BRCA)</td><td>No federal safe harbour</td></tr>
<tr><td>State pre-emption</td><td>Federal registration overrides state regimes for centralised exchanges</td><td>State licences remain; CFTC offers an optional federal path</td></tr>
<tr><td>Durability</td><td>Changing it requires Congress</td><td>Can be reversed by a future administration or challenged in court</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>That last row is the whole argument for legislation. JPMorgan analysts noted after the vote that agency rules are less durable than statute. A different SEC chair in 2029 could withdraw an exemption or reverse a taxonomy. For anyone building a business on these rules, that is a five-year horizon at best.</p>

<h2>What changes for exchanges, tokens and users</h2>

<p><b>Exchanges.</b> US platforms still operate mostly under state money transmitter licences, which our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">crypto licences</a> explains. The CFTC's proposal offers a federal alternative for leveraged retail products. Without the CLARITY Act, there is no single federal licence for spot trading of non-security tokens.</p>

<p><b>Token issuers.</b> The March 2026 guidance and the coming SEC taxonomy lower the risk that a widely used, decentralised token is treated as a security. Projects at an early, centralised stage still face securities rules, softened by any safe harbour the SEC finalises.</p>

<p><b>Tokenisation.</b> The innovation exemption opens a regulated route for trading tokenised shares onchain, a development covered in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/">real-world asset tokenisation</a>.</p>

<p><b>Stablecoin holders.</b> The fight over rewards is unresolved in law. Whether a platform can pay you for holding a dollar stablecoin depends on GENIUS Act implementing rules, explained in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act implementation</a>.</p>

<p>Our view: the agencies are delivering most of the practical clarity the industry asked for, faster than Congress could have. What they cannot deliver is permanence, state pre-emption or developer protection. Those three are the real stakes of the bill now.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>3 November 2026:</b> US midterm elections. The House cannot take up a revised bill before then, and a change in control would reset the negotiation.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> whether Senator Tillis's motion to reconsider produces a second floor vote in the lame-duck session.</li>
<li><b>12 November 2026 onward:</b> EU direct supervision of USDC's reserves begins, a reminder that other jurisdictions are pressing ahead with stablecoin oversight.</li>
<li><b>Through 2026-27:</b> final text of CFTC Regulation CTX and CAM, SEC broker-dealer crypto amendments, and any SEC token offering safe harbour.</li>
<li><b>2028:</b> analysts at TD Cowen have warned the CFTC framework may need to be completed before the 2028 election to survive a change of administration.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains legislation and regulation in general terms and is not legal advice.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/us-crypto-market-structure-law.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Investors Evaluate Fintech Startups in 2026: The Metrics</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-investors-evaluate-fintech-startups/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-investors-evaluate-fintech-startups/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>How VCs and angels evaluate a fintech startup in 2026: take rate, net revenue, CAC payback, loss rates and licences, with 2025-2026 funding and seed data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-investors-evaluate-fintech-startups.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A family office partner in Abu Dhabi has two fintech decks open side by side. Both show $50 million a month of payment volume. One startup keeps 0.2% of it after paying banks, card networks and FX providers; the other keeps 1.1% but has written off 3% of the loans it extended last year. The headline number is identical and almost meaningless. What separates an investable fintech from a crowded one in 2026 is what happens to each dollar after it arrives, how long the customer stays, and whether a regulator would let a competitor copy the business next month.</p>

<h2>How much money is going into fintech startups in 2026?</h2>
<p>Fintech funding in 2026 is fewer, larger cheques. CB Insights counted $52.7 billion of fintech venture funding in 2025, up 35.5% on 2024, while deal count fell almost 19% to 3,631. In the second quarter of 2026, funding fell to $11.7 billion across 726 deals, the fewest quarterly deals in more than four years.</p>
<p>The 2025 totals come from <a href="https://letsdatascience.com/news/fintech-secures-527b-venture-funding-in-2025-303e4316" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CB Insights data reported by Let's Data Science</a>, which put the average deal at about $20 million. The second-quarter figures are from CB Insights' State of Fintech Q2 2026, which also logged only four fintech IPOs in the quarter against 25 in the fourth quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$52.7B</b><span>fintech VC funding in 2025 (CB Insights)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>726</b><span>fintech deals in Q2 2026, a four-year low</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$103.1B</b><span>fintech investment incl. M&amp;A, H1 2026 (KPMG)</span></div></div>
<p>KPMG counts more broadly, including M&amp;A and private equity. Its <a href="https://kpmg.com/in/en/insights/2026/09/pulse-of-fintech-h1-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pulse of Fintech H1 2026</a> recorded $103.1 billion across 2,100 deals in the first half, up from $72.2 billion in the second half of 2025, with one $24.3 billion payments acquisition doing much of the lifting. Venture capital alone was $31.5 billion across 1,641 deals. The US took $80.8 billion of the total; KPMG estimated India at around $2 billion. By segment, payments drew $44.2 billion in the half, more than double its $20.2 billion for all of 2025, while AI-related fintech drew $21.4 billion and digital assets $11.1 billion.</p>
<p>The lesson for founders is uncomfortable. Capital has not disappeared, but it is pooling in companies that already look like category leaders, such as those in our list of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fintech-startups-to-watch-2026/">fintech startups to watch in 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>What do investors look at first in a fintech startup?</h2>
<p>Investors in 2026 look first at revenue quality: how much of each transaction a fintech keeps after paying banks, networks, FX providers and credit losses. Gross volume and gross revenue impress in a pitch, but net revenue, sometimes called revenue less transaction costs, is the number that decides valuation multiples.</p>
<p>Three ratios do most of the work:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Take rate.</b> Revenue divided by volume processed. A card processor might earn a fraction of a percent; an instalment lender earns several percent because it also carries credit risk.</li>
<li><b>Net take rate.</b> Revenue after interchange, network fees, sponsor-bank fees, FX spread costs and funding costs, divided by volume. This shows who really holds pricing power.</li>
<li><b>Contribution margin.</b> Net revenue minus losses, fraud, customer support and servicing, before marketing and overheads. If this is negative at scale, more growth makes the business worse.</li>
</ul>
<p>Lending and buy-now-pay-later models add a fourth: loss rates by vintage. Investors want charge-offs tracked by the month loans were made, not blended across a growing book, because a fast-growing lender can hide deteriorating credit behind new, unseasoned loans. Payments and stablecoin businesses face an equivalent in fraud and chargeback losses. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> shows how interest-driven revenue can flatter margins when rates are high.</p>

<h2>Worked example: reading a public fintech's numbers the way a VC would</h2>
<p>Public filings let us test these ratios on real figures. Affirm, the US instalment lender, reported fiscal 2026 (the year to 30 June 2026) revenue of $4.26 billion on gross merchandise volume of $50.2 billion, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/08/302674-bnpl-fintech-affirm-beats-revenue-estimates-and-lifts-outlook-as-afrm-stock-surge-in-after-hours/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider's results summary</a>.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Gross take rate:</b> $4.26 billion divided by $50.2 billion is about 8.5%. Affirm's own fiscal 2027 guidance assumes a revenue take rate near 8.5% of volume.</li>
<li><b>Net revenue share:</b> In the fourth quarter, revenue was about $1.17 billion and revenue less transaction costs was $589 million. So roughly half of every revenue dollar went to funding, processing and loss provisions.</li>
<li><b>Net take rate:</b> $589 million against $14.1 billion of quarterly volume is about 4.2%.</li>
<li><b>Engagement:</b> 27.8 million active consumers made about 7.0 purchases each over the trailing year, up 20%, a signal investors use as a proxy for retention.</li>
</ol>
<p>Now apply the same lens to a seed-stage cross-border payments startup. Suppose it processes $50 million a month at a 0.8% gross take rate, earning $400,000. If bank, FX and network costs consume 0.55% of volume, net revenue is $125,000, or 0.25%. Subtract $20,000 of fraud losses and $30,000 of support and compliance cost and contribution is $75,000 a month. An investor would then ask what it cost to acquire the customers producing it. If the startup spent $1.2 million on sales and marketing to win them, payback on contribution is 16 months. That is the number the term sheet is really about.</p>
<p class="note">The seed-stage figures above are illustrative. The Affirm figures are as reported for fiscal 2026.</p>

<h2>What unit economics benchmarks do VCs use for fintech?</h2>
<p>For fintech startups in 2026, VCs commonly test customer acquisition cost payback, net revenue retention and contribution margin. Andreessen Horowitz's widely used guide puts typical CAC payback at 12 to 18 months, 6 to 12 months for small-business products and 18 to 24 months for enterprise sales. Fintechs with credit risk face stricter thresholds.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://a16z.com/11-key-gtm-metrics-for-b2b-startups/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a16z framework</a>, first published in 2020 and still cited in diligence memos, calculates payback as sales and marketing spend divided by net new recurring revenue multiplied by gross margin. Fintech investors adapt it by using net revenue in place of subscription revenue, since a payments company's top line includes pass-through costs.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Metric</th><th>What it measures</th><th>What investors want to see</th><th>Common red flag</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Net take rate</td><td>Revenue kept after transaction costs, per dollar of volume</td><td>Stable or rising as volume grows</td><td>Falling as large customers renegotiate</td></tr>
<tr><td>Contribution margin</td><td>Net revenue minus losses, fraud and servicing</td><td>Positive per cohort by month 6-12</td><td>Positive only before credit losses</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAC payback</td><td>Months to recover acquisition spend</td><td>6-12 months for SMB, 12-18 typical (a16z)</td><td>Paid acquisition with payback above 24 months</td></tr>
<tr><td>Net revenue retention</td><td>Revenue from a cohort a year later, after churn and expansion</td><td>Above 100% for B2B products</td><td>Growth reliant on new logos only</td></tr>
<tr><td>Loss rate by vintage</td><td>Charge-offs per loan cohort</td><td>Stable across vintages</td><td>Only blended loss rates disclosed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Licence status</td><td>Own licences versus a partner's</td><td>Own licences, or a clear path to them</td><td>One sponsor bank with no backup</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote class="pull">A fintech's gross volume tells you how busy it is; its net take rate tells you whether it is a business.</blockquote>

<h2>Why do licences count as a moat for fintech startups?</h2>
<p>Licences count as a moat because they take years and real capital to obtain, and they decide which products a fintech can legally offer. In 2026 investors value fintechs holding their own payment, e-money, banking or virtual-asset licences more highly than those renting them from partners, because a partner can withdraw.</p>
<p>India illustrates the cost. The Reserve Bank of India's <a href="https://inc42.com/buzz/rbi-issues-new-master-directions-for-payment-aggregators" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Aggregator Directions of 15 September 2025</a> require a non-bank applicant to have a net worth of Rs 15 crore when it applies and Rs 25 crore by the end of its third financial year after authorisation, maintained on an ongoing basis. Merchant funds must sit in escrow at a scheduled commercial bank and be settled within T+1, and cross-border aggregators face a Rs 25 lakh per-transaction cap. A startup holding that authorisation has cleared a hurdle a newcomer cannot buy quickly.</p>
<p>The same logic shows up at scale. Airwallex holds more than 85 licences worldwide, and Stripe's stablecoin unit Bridge won conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in February 2026 to become a national bank. In the Gulf, crypto firms have spent years securing approvals from Abu Dhabi's ADGM, Dubai's VARA and the federal Securities and Commodities Authority. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">crypto licences</a> explains the main categories.</p>

<h2>What are pre-seed and seed benchmarks for fintech in 2026?</h2>
<p>Pre-seed rounds in 2026 are larger and priced higher than a year earlier. Carta data shows US startups raised $3.19 billion through more than 11,500 pre-seed SAFEs and notes in Q2 2026, with an average instrument of $276,000, up 27%. The median valuation cap on SAFEs above $2.5 million reached $35 million, up 40% year on year.</p>
<p>The figures are from Carta's <a href="https://carta.com/data/state-of-pre-seed-q2-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">State of Pre-Seed Q2 2026</a> and its <a href="https://carta.com/data/safe-valuation-caps-q2-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analysis of SAFE valuation caps</a>. In the second quarter, 91% of SAFEs on Carta were post-money, and 94% of post-money SAFEs in the first half carried a valuation cap. One caution for fintech founders: AI companies took 49% of pre-seed dollars in the first half of 2026, so the medians are pulled upward by a sector that is not theirs.</p>
<p>The bar for the next round has also risen. Research summarised in January 2026 put the median revenue of fintechs raising a Series A at about $4 million, four times the 2021 level, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/01/257722-global-fintech-funding-stabilizes-to-10b-per-quarter-in-past-year-research/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>. A seed-stage fintech raising today is being underwritten on whether it can reach that.</p>

<h2>How do fintech investors in India and the UAE differ?</h2>
<p>India and the UAE are both growing fintech markets, but their funding looks different in 2025-2026. Indian fintech raised about $2.4 billion in 2025, with seed funding down 40%, while the UAE raised a record $1.4 billion across all sectors in the first nine months of 2025, mostly from foreign investors.</p>
<p>In India, <a href="https://ianslive.in/indias-fintech-sector-raises-24-billion-in-2025-led-by-surge-in-earlystage-deals--20260116135202" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tracxn data reported by IANS</a> showed early-stage fintech funding up 78% to $1.2 billion in 2025, while seed funding fell 40% to $177 million and late-stage funding fell 26% to $1 billion. India ranked third globally behind the US and UK, with Bengaluru taking 42% of funding and Mumbai 29%. Indian investors tend to weigh RBI licensing and distribution through UPI heavily, and they price in the possibility that regulation can reshape a product category quickly.</p>
<p>In the UAE, <a href="https://enterpriseam.com/uae/2025/10/16/uae-venture-funding-up-188-in-9m-amid-foreign-capital-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MAGNiTT data reported by Enterprise</a> showed venture funding up 188% to $1.4 billion in the first nine months of 2025 across 164 deals, with about 82% of capital coming from non-UAE investors. Fintech across the wider Middle East and North Africa raised $965 million over the same period, up 97%. Gulf investors often look for regional licences in several jurisdictions and a credible path into Saudi Arabia. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-fintech-companies-2026/">UAE fintech companies</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-fintech-companies-2026/">India fintech companies</a> guides profile the leaders in each market.</p>

<h2>What should fintech founders and investors watch next?</h2>
<p>Several dated data points over the coming months will show whether 2026's concentration continues:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>CB Insights State of Fintech Q3 2026,</b> expected later this autumn, will show whether Q2's four-year low in deal count was the bottom.</li>
<li><b>Carta's Q3 2026 pre-seed and seed data</b> will show whether rising SAFE caps hold outside AI.</li>
<li><b>RBI payment aggregator authorisations.</b> Non-banks had to apply by 31 December 2025 and wind down by 28 February 2026 if they did not comply; the list of authorised firms will shape Indian payments for years.</li>
<li><b>KPMG Pulse of Fintech H2 2026,</b> typically published early in the following year, will give the full-year total including M&amp;A.</li>
<li><b>Mastercard's acquisition of BVNK,</b> expected to close by the end of 2026, will set a reference price for stablecoin infrastructure.</li>
</ul>
<p class="note">This article explains how professional investors commonly assess fintech companies. It is not investment, tax or legal advice. Anyone considering investing in a private company should take advice from a qualified adviser.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-investors-evaluate-fintech-startups.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Ripple vs Stellar for Payments 2026: XRP Ledger vs Stellar</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-vs-stellar-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-vs-stellar-payments/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Networks</category><description>Ripple vs Stellar for payments in 2026: how the XRP Ledger and Stellar compare on fees, settlement, stablecoins like RLUSD and PYUSD, and CBDC pilots.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-vs-stellar-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A treasury analyst at a mid-sized money transfer company in Houston has two vendor decks open. One, from Ripple, promises a licensed payout network, a regulated dollar stablecoin and a bank charter in progress. The other, from a Stellar-based partner, offers an open network where MoneyGram, PayPal's stablecoin and a few hundred local cash-out firms already sit. Both say "settles in seconds". Both cost a sliver of a cent per transaction on-chain. The choice she actually faces is not between two blockchains. It is between buying a service from a company and building on a public network run by a foundation.</p>

<h2>Is Ripple the same as Stellar?</h2>
<p>No. In 2026 Ripple is a private US company that sells payment, custody and treasury services and issues the RLUSD stablecoin; it is closely linked to the XRP Ledger but does not own it. Stellar is a separate public blockchain, supported by the nonprofit Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), whose native asset is XLM. The two share early history and a payments focus, but they are different networks.</p>
<p>The confusion is understandable. Both ledgers were designed more than a decade ago for moving money rather than running general-purpose applications, both use a form of voting consensus rather than mining, and both have native assets (XRP and XLM) used mainly to pay network fees and meet account reserves. The real difference is commercial. Ripple's business is selling a product to banks and payment firms. The SDF's job is to grow an open network that companies such as MoneyGram, Circle and Paxos build on directly.</p>
<p>That shapes everything below. When people compare "Ripple vs Stellar", they often mean Ripple Payments vs the Stellar network, which is a comparison between a vendor and an ecosystem. We cover Ripple's corporate strategy in more depth in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/">Ripple in 2026</a> and Stellar's year in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stellar-payments-blockchain/">our Stellar explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>How do Ripple and Stellar compare for payments in 2026?</h2>
<p>For payments in 2026, Ripple offers a managed service for licensed institutions, with its own stablecoin and more than $95 billion processed through Ripple Payments. Stellar offers an open network where regulated firms issue and redeem dollars directly, now carrying PayPal's PYUSD and MoneyGram's MGUSD. Fees on both ledgers are tiny; the cost sits in on- and off-ramps.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>Ripple / XRP Ledger</th><th>Stellar</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Who runs it</td><td>Ripple (private company) sells services; XRPL is a public ledger</td><td>Public network; SDF is a nonprofit supporter</td></tr>
<tr><td>Native asset</td><td>XRP</td><td>XLM</td></tr>
<tr><td>Main payment product</td><td>Ripple Payments for banks, PSPs and fintechs</td><td>Anchors that issue and redeem assets; open standards</td></tr>
<tr><td>Headline stablecoins</td><td>RLUSD (Ripple, NYDFS-supervised)</td><td>USDC, PYUSD (Paxos), MGUSD (MoneyGram, issued by Bridge)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Minimum network fee</td><td>10 drops (0.00001 XRP), destroyed</td><td>100 stroops (0.00001 XLM) per operation</td></tr>
<tr><td>Account reserve</td><td>1 XRP base + 0.2 XRP per object</td><td>1 XLM minimum + 0.5 XLM per trustline or entry</td></tr>
<tr><td>Disclosed scale</td><td>$95B+ processed via Ripple Payments (Dec 2025)</td><td>~4.9M transactions a day (Q2 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>CBDC work</td><td>Pilots with Palau, Bhutan, Montenegro (2023)</td><td>Ukraine e-hryvnia pilot (2021)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Two caveats. The "disclosed scale" row compares different things: Ripple publishes cumulative value through its product, while Stellar's figures come from on-chain activity. And on-chain fees are only a small part of what a customer pays; foreign exchange spreads, compliance and cash-out fees dominate.</p>

<h2>What does Ripple Payments actually offer banks and fintechs?</h2>
<p>Ripple Payments is a licensed cross-border service in 2026: Ripple takes funds in one currency and pays out in another, using RLUSD or XRP for settlement where useful and local partners for the last mile. Ripple said in December 2025 that it had processed more than $95 billion and that its payout network covered over 90% of the global FX market.</p>
<p>Those figures come from <a href="https://ripple.com/ripple-press/ripple-secures-federal-approval-to-establish-national-trust-bank/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ripple's announcement of conditional OCC approval</a> for Ripple National Trust Bank, a federally supervised trust bank, on 12 December 2025. That approval matters more to a bank's procurement team than any throughput benchmark. It means RLUSD would sit under federal oversight from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency as well as state oversight from the New York Department of Financial Services.</p>
<p>The customer experience is closer to using a correspondent bank than using a blockchain. A payment firm sends dollars to Ripple, Ripple handles conversion and routing, and a licensed partner credits the recipient. The firm does not need to hold XRP or run XRPL infrastructure itself. That is Ripple's pitch, and its limitation: you are buying a service with Ripple in the middle. For a step-by-step view, see our planned guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-payments-explained/">how Ripple Payments works</a>.</p>

<h2>How do Stellar anchors, USDC and MoneyGram work?</h2>
<p>On Stellar in 2026, regulated companies called anchors issue digital dollars or other assets and let users move between them and local cash or bank money. MoneyGram used USDC on Stellar for more than five years before launching its own MGUSD there in June 2026, and PayPal's PYUSD went live on Stellar in September 2025.</p>
<p>The anchor model means no single company sits in the middle. Circle issues USDC directly on Stellar. Paxos issues PYUSD, which the <a href="https://stellar.org/press/paypal-pyusd-is-now-available-on-stellar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SDF announced as live on 18 September 2025</a>, with early wallet integrations including Chipper Cash, Bitcoin.com and Lobstr. At the time, Stellar had nearly 10 million accounts and more than 20 billion operations to date.</p>
<p>MoneyGram is the clearest example of the model working at consumer scale. On 2 June 2026 it launched MGUSD, a dollar stablecoin issued by Stripe's Bridge under the GENIUS Act framework and running natively on Stellar, according to <a href="https://theblock.co/post/403320/moneygram-debuts-mgusd-stablecoin-on-stellar-for-its-global-payments-network" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. MoneyGram cited more than 60 million active customers and nearly 500,000 retail locations. The launch started in the US, with wider rollout planned. A family in Lagos or Manila receiving MGUSD can, in principle, collect cash at a MoneyGram counter, which is the off-ramp most blockchains lack.</p>
<p>Network activity has grown alongside. Nansen's <a href="https://nansen.ai/post/stellar-q2-2026-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 2026 Stellar report</a> counted about 4.9 million transactions a day on average, about 63,000 daily active addresses and more than $3 billion of tokenised real-world assets. Protocol 26, a network upgrade, went live on mainnet on 6 May 2026.</p>

<h2>Which stablecoins run on the XRP Ledger and Stellar?</h2>
<p>As of mid-October 2026, Ripple's RLUSD had about $2.4 billion in circulation, and in mid-September roughly 57% of it sat on Ethereum and 43% on the XRP Ledger. Stellar carries USDC, PayPal's PYUSD and MoneyGram's MGUSD. PYUSD, across all its chains, was about $2.9 billion, somewhat larger than RLUSD.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$2.4B</b><span>RLUSD supply, Oct 2026 (DefiLlama)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$95B+</b><span>processed via Ripple Payments, Dec 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>4.9M</b><span>avg daily Stellar transactions, Q2 2026</span></div></div>

<p>The chain split comes from <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/rlusd-supply-record-ethereum-xrp-ledger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitcoin.com News, citing DefiLlama on 14 September 2026</a>: about $1.37 billion on Ethereum and $1.05 billion on the XRP Ledger, after most new supply since July went to Ethereum. Current totals come from <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DefiLlama</a>. The split is revealing. Even Ripple's own stablecoin lives mostly on another chain, because that is where institutional liquidity and DeFi collateral demand sit. Both totals are small next to the overall stablecoin market of about $306 billion, of which USDT holds roughly 60% and USDC about $73 billion.</p>
<p>The practical point for a payments firm is availability, not market share. If a corridor partner only settles in USDC, Stellar and many other chains will do; if it settles in RLUSD through Ripple, the XRP Ledger or Ethereum are the options. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments/">the best blockchains for stablecoin payments</a> covers how Ethereum, Solana, Tron and others fit in.</p>

<h2>What does a payment actually cost on each network?</h2>
<p>On-chain costs on both networks are far below a cent per payment in 2026. The XRP Ledger's minimum fee is 10 drops (0.00001 XRP), which is destroyed rather than paid to anyone, and Stellar's minimum is 100 stroops (0.00001 XLM) per operation, with ledgers closing in about five seconds. What users actually pay depends on exchange spreads and cash-out fees.</p>
<p>A worked example. A payout company sends 100,000 stablecoin payments a month on the XRP Ledger. At the <a href="https://xrpl.org/transaction-cost.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reference transaction cost of 10 drops</a>, the network fee for the whole month is 1,000,000 drops, exactly 1 XRP, though it can rise when the network is busy. Each recipient wallet must also hold a reserve: under the <a href="https://xrpl.org/docs/concepts/accounts/reserves" target="_blank" rel="noopener">current XRPL reserve rules</a>, 1 XRP base plus 0.2 XRP for the trust line needed to hold RLUSD, so 1.2 XRP locked per wallet. For a company onboarding 10,000 new recipients, that is 12,000 XRP of locked reserves, a balance-sheet item that often matters more than fees. Stellar has an equivalent rule: under its <a href="https://developers.stellar.org/docs/learn/fundamentals/lumens" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published reserve rules</a>, an account must hold a 1 XLM minimum plus 0.5 XLM for each trustline, so 1.5 XLM per wallet holding USDC.</p>
<p>Now compare the whole journey. The World Bank's global average cost of sending $200 was 6.36% in Q3 2025, or $12.72. Even if the on-chain leg costs nothing, a sender still pays for converting dollars in, converting out to naira or pesos, and compliance checks. A blockchain can remove correspondent fees and delays; it cannot remove the cost of the cash counter at the end.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The ledger fee is the cheapest part of any blockchain payment. The off-ramp is where the money goes.</blockquote>

<h2>Have Ripple or Stellar been used for CBDCs?</h2>
<p>Both have been used in central bank digital currency pilots, but neither runs a launched national CBDC as of 2026. Ripple said in 2023 it was working with Palau, Bhutan's Royal Monetary Authority and Montenegro's central bank on CBDC and stablecoin pilots. Stellar hosted Ukraine's electronic hryvnia pilot with TASCOMBANK and Bitt in December 2021.</p>
<p>Ripple's offering, <a href="https://finextra.com/newsarticle/42329/ripple-rolls-out-cbdc-platform" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Finextra</a>, is a private-ledger platform with tools for minting, distributing and redeeming tokens, plus a trial with Fubon Bank inside Hong Kong's e-HKD pilot programme. Stellar's approach used the public network: the <a href="https://stellar.org/press/ukraine-electronic-hryvnia-pilot-launched-by-tascombank-and-bitt-on-stellar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ukrainian pilot</a> tested programmable payroll for public employees, peer-to-peer transfers and merchant payments under the supervision of the National Bank of Ukraine.</p>
<p>Context helps. The <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Atlantic Council tracker</a> counted 146 countries exploring a CBDC, 41 pilot projects and just 3 launches as of May 2026. Most central banks building retail CBDCs have chosen their own or permissioned infrastructure rather than a public chain. Vendor pilots like these are best read as proofs of concept. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">CBDC tracker</a> follows which projects have moved past that stage.</p>

<h2>What to watch next for Ripple and Stellar</h2>
<p>Over the next year, the questions are regulatory and commercial. Ripple needs final approval for its national trust bank and continued RLUSD growth; Stellar needs MGUSD and PYUSD to move beyond US launch markets. GENIUS Act implementing rules will apply to both stablecoin models.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Ripple National Trust Bank.</b> Conditional OCC approval came in December 2025. Final approval and opening would put RLUSD under direct federal supervision.</li>
<li><b>RLUSD's chain split.</b> Watch whether the XRP Ledger's 44% share rises. If Ripple's own coin stays mostly on Ethereum, the XRPL's role in its payment stack is narrower than its marketing suggests.</li>
<li><b>MGUSD outside the US.</b> MoneyGram said global scaling would follow the June 2026 US launch. The first non-US corridors will show whether stablecoin cash-out works at retail scale.</li>
<li><b>GENIUS Act rules.</b> The US stablecoin law, signed in July 2025, is still being turned into detailed regulations. They will shape RLUSD, PYUSD and MGUSD alike; see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act implementation guide</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>For the analyst in Houston, the answer depends less on technology than on her company's appetite to run its own infrastructure. A firm that wants one contract and one counterparty will lean towards Ripple. A firm that wants to pick its own issuers, anchors and wallets will lean towards Stellar. Both are legitimate choices, and plenty of firms will use both.</p>

<p class="note">This article explains how two payment networks work. It is not investment advice and says nothing about the price of XRP, XLM or any token. Check with a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-vs-stellar-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Beyond USDT and USDC: PYUSD, RLUSD, USAT, EURC and the Challengers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/beyond-usdt-usdc-new-stablecoins/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/beyond-usdt-usdc-new-stablecoins/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>PayPal, Ripple, MoneyGram and banks all issue stablecoins now. A clear guide to the challengers, what each is built for, and which ones matter for payments.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/beyond-usdt-usdc-new-stablecoins.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Two years ago the stablecoin market was a two-horse race with a few ponies at the back. In 2026 the field looks more like a marathon start line. Payment companies, a remittance giant, banks and even blockchains themselves now issue their own digital dollars. Most won't overtake the big two. Several will matter anyway, because of who they're built for.</p>

<h2>PYUSD: the checkout dollar</h2>
<p>PayPal's stablecoin is the one most likely to reach people who have never opened a crypto app. Its advantage isn't technology; it's the hundreds of millions of accounts already sitting inside PayPal and Venmo. By late September 2026 it was a little ahead of Ripple's coin in size, roughly in the $2.7 billion range. Watch it for merchant payments and person-to-person transfers inside the PayPal world.</p>

<h2>RLUSD: Ripple's institutional dollar</h2>
<p>Ripple's stablecoin launched at the end of 2024 and has grown quickly with a very specific audience in mind: banks, payment providers and treasuries. Its supply passed about $2.49 billion at the end of September 2026, up more than 86% since January, split between Ethereum and Ripple's own XRP Ledger. Its reserves sit with a New York trust company, and it gained approval in Japan this year. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/">Ripple deep dive</a> covers where it fits in Ripple's bigger plan.</p>

<h2>USAT: Tether goes American</h2>
<p>Rather than reshape USDT for US rules, Tether launched a separate dollar in January 2026, issued through Anchorage Digital and designed around the GENIUS Act. It's a sensible way to keep USDT's global reach while giving US institutions a version they can legally hold. It also shows where the industry is heading: one brand, several regulated wrappers, each tuned to a jurisdiction.</p>

<h2>EURC: the euro finally shows up</h2>
<p>Almost every stablecoin is a dollar. Circle's EURC is the most visible exception, authorised under MiCA through the same French licence as USDC. It's still small, around €474 million in October 2026, but Europe's rules are deliberately nudging businesses towards euro-denominated tokens. For anyone paying salaries, suppliers or rent in euros, it's worth knowing it exists.</p>

<h2>MGUSD: remittance gets its own coin</h2>
<p>This one matters most to anyone who has ever queued to send money home. MoneyGram, a name generations of migrants know from the counter at their local shop, launched its own regulated digital dollar on the Stellar network in 2026. That's a remittance company admitting, in effect, that the future of sending money home runs on stablecoin rails, with cash pickup as one of the payout options rather than the whole business.</p>

<h2>Bank coins and everything else</h2>
<p>Banks in the US, Europe and Asia are testing their own tokenised deposits and stablecoins, and some newer coins pay a yield. We'd treat the yield-bearing ones carefully: under the GENIUS Act, ordinary payment stablecoins aren't allowed to pay you interest just for holding them. A coin built for savings and a coin built for spending are different products, and it's fine to want both, as long as you know which is which.</p>

<h2>What this means for people who just want to pay</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>More choice, less loyalty.</b> No single coin will win every corridor, so providers will increasingly route between them.</li>
  <li><b>Local currencies are coming.</b> Euro stablecoins are the start; expect more local-currency tokens as regulators get comfortable.</li>
  <li><b>Brands you already trust are moving in.</b> PayPal and MoneyGram issuing stablecoins does more for mainstream trust than any crypto ad campaign.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="pull">The question is no longer whether stablecoins will be used for everyday money. It's which one moves your payment, and who decides.</blockquote>
<p>We think the answer should be whichever coin gets the most money to the other side, with the final amount shown clearly before anyone pays. Nobody should have to read a guide like this just to pay their mother's electricity bill. (But we're glad you did.)</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/beyond-usdt-usdc-new-stablecoins.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Indian State Treasuries Move Rs 42 Lakh Crore: IFMS, PFMS, SNA</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/state-treasury-digital-payments-india/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/state-treasury-digital-payments-india/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>Inside India&#x27;s state treasuries: IFMS and Khajane-II bill data, PFMS and SNA float, digital challans, and the CAG and RBI numbers on where state money goes.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/state-treasury-digital-payments-india.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Somewhere in a district treasury office in Karnataka, a drawing and disbursing officer submits one of roughly 36.75 lakh bills the state processed in 2024-25. That bill, and the 36 lakh others like it, moved Rs 4.43 lakh crore out of a single state's accounts in a year. Multiply that machinery across 28 states and you get the least glamorous, most consequential payment system in India.</p>

<p>Most writing on Indian government payments starts with UPI or direct benefit transfer. Those are the parts citizens see. Underneath them sits the state treasury, the system that decides when money is released, which account it sits in while waiting, and whether the accounts reconcile at the end of the year. This explainer follows the money through that system using the most recent CAG, RBI and state data, and argues that the next round of reform is about float and reconciliation, not speed.</p>

<h2>The scale: Rs 42.4 lakh crore and rising</h2>

<p>The Comptroller and Auditor General's first decade-long compendium of state finances, released in September 2025, put combined state spending at Rs 42.4 lakh crore in 2022-23, up from Rs 15.9 lakh crore in 2013-14, as <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/spending-by-states-spikes-180-to-42l-cr-in-a-decade-up-tops-chart" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Tribune reported</a>. Uttar Pradesh spent about Rs 4.8 lakh crore and Maharashtra about Rs 4.7 lakh crore. Revenue spending, meaning salaries, pensions, interest, subsidies and grants rather than building things, made up 84.73% of the total, or Rs 35.96 lakh crore.</p>

<p>Within that, committed expenditure on salaries, pensions and interest reached about Rs 15.64 lakh crore, 2.49 times its 2013-14 level, according to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/states-salary-pension-interest-expenses-rise-2-5-times-since-fy14-cag-125092100328_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard's reading of the CAG data</a>. Subsidies were Rs 3.10 lakh crore and grants-in-aid Rs 11.26 lakh crore. Capital spending was just 15.27% of the total in 2022-23, against a decade peak of 19.68% in 2016-17.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>Rs 42.4L cr</b><span>combined state spending, 2022-23</span></div><div class="stat"><b>2.49x</b><span>growth in committed spending since 2013-14</span></div><div class="stat"><b>15.27%</b><span>capital share of state spending, 2022-23</span></div></div>

<p>The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/SCRIPTS/PublicationsView.aspx?id=23710" target="_blank" rel="noopener">State Finances study published in January 2026</a> uses a narrower definition and so gets smaller ratios. For all states and union territories, it shows committed expenditure at 31.6% of revenue spending in 2023-24, 29.6% in the 2024-25 revised estimates and 30.6% in the 2025-26 budgets. Pensions alone took 11.8% of revenue spending in 2025-26 budgets and interest 12.2% of revenue receipts. States covered 57.3% of their revenue spending from their own revenue in the 2025-26 budgets. The rest arrives as devolution and grants from the Centre, which is exactly where the treasury plumbing gets complicated.</p>

<h2>Three layers of plumbing</h2>

<p>It helps to think of state money moving through three layers.</p>

<p><b>The state IFMS.</b> Each state runs an integrated financial management system that controls budget releases, accepts bills from drawing and disbursing officers (DDOs), passes them, and pushes payments. Karnataka's version is Khajane-II, Tamil Nadu's is IFHRMS, and most other states have their own. Bills are increasingly electronic vouchers with digital signatures. The IFMS also usually hosts the receipt side: citizens and businesses paying taxes, fees and deposits through netbanking, cards, UPI or NEFT, generating an electronic challan.</p>

<p><b>The Centre's PFMS.</b> The Public Financial Management System tracks central money as it flows to states and implementing agencies. For centrally sponsored schemes it now sits alongside the single nodal agency (SNA) framework, under which each scheme in each state has one designated account from which implementing agencies draw, with balances visible to the Centre.</p>

<p><b>The banker.</b> The RBI acts as banker to state governments, and its core banking system, e-Kuber, holds state balances, handles the government's cash position and runs the auction calendar through which states borrow. When a treasury runs short, the gap is met through ways and means advances or market borrowing, both of which carry a cost.</p>

<p>Each layer was digitised separately. The friction appears at the seams between them.</p>

<h2>What one state's ledger looks like</h2>

<p>Karnataka published unusually detailed numbers in a <a href="https://saiindia.gov.in/uploads/media/Karnataka-Second-Conference-of-State-Finance-Secretaries-19092025-068ceb1f0363c91-64620654.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation to the CAG's conference of state finance secretaries in September 2025</a>. They show both the payment and receipt sides of Khajane-II over four years.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Year</th><th>DDOs</th><th>Bills passed</th><th>Payments (Rs crore)</th><th>Digital challans</th><th>Receipts via challan (Rs crore)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>2021-22</td><td>23,574</td><td>32,01,914</td><td>3,06,229.57</td><td>1,06,97,447</td><td>81,158</td></tr>
<tr><td>2022-23</td><td>30,949</td><td>35,95,467</td><td>3,36,230.60</td><td>1,86,09,793</td><td>1,17,724</td></tr>
<tr><td>2023-24</td><td>31,472</td><td>35,85,190</td><td>3,70,577.32</td><td>1,69,00,920</td><td>1,09,184</td></tr>
<tr><td>2024-25</td><td>31,556</td><td>36,75,112</td><td>4,42,613.89</td><td>1,90,71,021</td><td>1,14,546</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The system also connects to HRMS for about 5.03 lakh government employees and supports DBT, account-based transfers and e-RUPI vouchers as payment modes. From 1 June 2025 the state stopped sending printed copies of around 7.5 lakh salary-bill vouchers a year to the Accountant General, relying on the electronic record instead. That sounds administrative. It is actually the point at which the digital record becomes the legal record.</p>

<h2>Worked example: reading the Karnataka numbers</h2>

<p>A few divisions turn that table into something more intuitive.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Average bill size in 2024-25:</b> Rs 4,42,613.89 crore across 36,75,112 bills is about Rs 12.04 lakh per bill. Most bills are far smaller; a few very large transfers to local bodies and corporations pull the average up.</li>
<li><b>Workload per DDO:</b> 36,75,112 bills across 31,556 DDOs is about 116 bills per officer per year, roughly one every two working days, each handling about Rs 14 crore annually.</li>
<li><b>Payment growth:</b> payments rose about 44.5% between 2021-22 and 2024-25, while the number of bills rose only about 15%. Treasury throughput is growing in value, not in transaction count.</li>
<li><b>Receipts:</b> Rs 1,14,546 crore across 1,90,71,021 challans in 2024-25 is an average of about Rs 60,000 per challan. Challan volume grew about 78% over the four years, while value grew about 41%, consistent with more small payments moving online.</li>
</ul>

<p>The receipt side is where citizens touch the treasury most directly, through property registrations, fees, and departmental deposits. The rising count of smaller challans suggests the digital front door is being used by individuals, not only by large corporate filers.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The next frontier in treasury reform is not paying faster. It is knowing, on any given morning, where every rupee is sitting and why.</blockquote>

<h2>The float problem: SNA balances and unreconciled money</h2>

<p>The single nodal agency system was meant to end the old practice of central scheme money being parked across thousands of implementing-agency bank accounts. It has helped, but audit reports show the reconciliation is still messy. The CAG's <a href="https://saiindia.gov.in/uploads/download_audit_report/2024/03-Executive-Summary-069b8017d11d631.24518319.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023-24 State Finances audit of Punjab</a> found about Rs 3,372.86 crore lying unspent in SNA accounts at 31 March 2024, according to PFMS data. PFMS recorded Rs 6,487.22 crore transferred to SNAs that year, while the state's own figures put it at Rs 6,677.24 crore, a mismatch of roughly Rs 190 crore between two official ledgers.</p>

<p>The same audit found Rs 406.98 crore of cess and levies collected by DDOs but not deposited into the government account, 2,037 abstract contingent bills worth Rs 2,804.85 crore still awaiting detailed vouchers, and committed expenditure at 65% of the state's revenue spending. None of these are payment-speed problems. They are visibility problems: money has moved, but the ledger cannot fully say where it went or whether it was used.</p>

<p>Why does this matter to anyone outside a finance department? Because unspent balances in scheme accounts are money that the state could have used elsewhere, or that the Centre could have released to a state that needed it. Each crore idling in a nodal account while another treasury borrows through ways and means advances is a real interest cost.</p>

<h2>Payroll, the biggest single draw</h2>

<p>Salaries were the largest component of committed spending in 19 states in 2022-23, according to the CAG data. That is why so many states are consolidating HR and payroll into their treasury systems. Tamil Nadu sanctioned Rs 288.91 crore for IFHRMS to link about 29,000 DDOs and digitise around 9 lakh service registers, according to a <a href="https://kygcms.tn.gov.in/cms_migrated/document/press_release/pr270618_e_414.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2018 state government release</a>. Telangana set a 15 October 2026 deadline to finish digitising records for about 3.48 lakh employees across 38,710 offices and directed that DBT sanctions use Aadhaar authentication, according to <a href="https://www.thehansindia.com/news/cities/hyderabad/e-hrms-for-all-govt-employees-by-october-15-1130479" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hans India</a>.</p>

<p>Integrating HR with the treasury closes an old gap: the employee master and the payment record used to be separate systems, which is where ghost employees and duplicate payments hide. Our companion piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/government-payroll-and-wage-payments/">government payroll and wage payments</a> covers that side in more detail, including the shift to 60:40 funding for rural wages that lands directly on state treasuries from July 2026.</p>

<h2>Where programmable money might fit</h2>

<p>There is an obvious argument that tagged or programmable money could solve the float problem: if a scheme rupee could only be spent for its intended purpose, and only released when a milestone is met, the SNA balance would effectively become a set of conditional payments rather than a pooled account. Karnataka already lists e-RUPI as a supported payment mode, and our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/">e-RUPI vouchers</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/">purpose-bound money</a> look at how that works in practice.</p>

<p>We are cautious about over-reading this. The Punjab audit's problems were missing vouchers and undeposited collections, not a lack of programmability. A treasury that cannot reconcile two ledgers today will not fix that by adding a third, more complex one. The sequence that makes sense is integration first (one employee master, one scheme account view, one receipt ledger), and only then conditional money for specific flows such as contractor milestone payments. India's broader <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">digital public infrastructure</a> gives states the identity and payment rails; the ledger discipline has to come from inside each finance department. For background on how money actually moves between banks and the RBI, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/">what are payment rails</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>15 October 2026:</b> Telangana's e-HRMS completion deadline. Whether it holds is a useful test of how quickly a large state can consolidate its employee master.</li>
<li><b>October 2026 to March 2027:</b> the first two full quarters in which states fund 40% of rural employment wages under the VB-G RAM G Act. Watch ways and means advance usage at the RBI and any reports of states delaying their share.</li>
<li><b>1 February 2027:</b> the Union Budget for 2027-28, which will set transfers to states and show whether the Centre tightens SNA release conditions further.</li>
<li><b>Early 2027:</b> the RBI's next State Finances study, which will carry 2024-25 accounts and 2026-27 budgets, and the first audited numbers on whether committed spending ratios moved after the new wage-sharing rule.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">State finance data are revised as accounts are audited. Ratios from the RBI and the CAG use different definitions of committed expenditure and are not directly comparable.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/state-treasury-digital-payments-india.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Fintech Companies in Saudi Arabia 2026: Leaders and Data</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/saudi-arabia-fintech-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/saudi-arabia-fintech-2026/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>Saudi Arabia&#x27;s fintech sector in 2026: Tabby, Tamara, STC Bank, Geidea, HALA and Lean, plus mada, SAMA payment rails and record remittance outflows data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/saudi-arabia-fintech-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On the evening wages land, the queue outside a money transfer counter in Jubail's industrial city runs past the pharmacy next door. Inside, a site engineer from Kerala sends part of his salary home while checking, on the same phone, how much of a new refrigerator he has left to pay off in instalments. Both transactions run on Saudi rails that the central bank either owns or licenses. Together they describe the two halves of Saudi fintech in 2026: one of the world's largest flows of money leaving a country, and a domestic consumer finance boom built on apps.</p>

<h2>How we chose these companies</h2>
<p>We selected the companies below using measurable criteria as of October 2026: licences from the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), funding and valuation, users and merchants, and product breadth. They are grouped by category rather than ranked. Where we could not verify a recent number for a company, we describe it qualitatively and say so. That applies more often in Saudi Arabia than in India or the UAE, because several leading firms are private and publish few figures.</p>
<p>This guide is narrower than a full directory. It covers the firms with the clearest public footprint and the infrastructure they run on, and pairs them with SAMA's own remittance data, which is the best public measure of how money actually moves out of the kingdom.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>SAR 165.5B</b><span>expat remittances in 2025 (SAMA monthly data)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>SAR 16.9B</b><span>expat remittances, Mar 2026, a March record</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$6.5B</b><span>Tabby valuation, Sep 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>How much money is sent from Saudi Arabia in 2026?</h2>
<p>Expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia sent about SAR 165.5 billion abroad in 2025, roughly $44 billion, according to SAMA's monthly figures as compiled by Argaam (our sum of the twelve months). In March 2026 expat remittances hit SAR 16.92 billion, up 9% year on year and a record for the month. Saudi nationals' own transfers abroad fell 20% in March.</p>
<p>The monthly series, published by <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1905372" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Argaam from SAMA data in May 2026</a>, shows how steady the flow is. Expat remittances ran between SAR 12.6 billion and SAR 15.5 billion every month of 2025. The first quarter of 2026 totalled SAR 42.79 billion, up about 1.9% on the same quarter of 2025, after soft January and February months were offset by a 35% jump in March, which fell around the end of Ramadan.</p>
<p>The other line in the data is more surprising. Remittances by Saudi nationals fell to SAR 15.2 billion in Q1 2026 from SAR 18.82 billion a year earlier, a drop of about 19%. Across 2025 they came to roughly SAR 70.4 billion. Nationals' transfers are a mix of investment, tuition and family spending abroad, and the decline is worth watching as a signal of domestic confidence or tighter household budgets.</p>
<p>For fintech, the expat number is the prize. A market of over SAR 165 billion a year, sent mostly in small, regular amounts, is precisely the business that digital wallets and app-based remitters want to take from counters. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia corridor analysis</a> covers where the money goes.</p>

<h2>Who runs Saudi Arabia's payment rails?</h2>
<p>Saudi Arabia's core payment rails in 2026 are owned by the state. Saudi Payments, a wholly owned SAMA subsidiary set up in 2019, runs the mada card and point-of-sale network, the SADAD bill payment system, Esal and the sarie instant payment system. Fintechs build on top of these rails rather than replacing them, which keeps the central bank at the centre of almost every transaction in the kingdom.</p>
<p>Mada's roots go back to 1990, when SAMA set up the Saudi Payments Network, according to <a href="https://saudipedia.com/en/article/982/economy-and-business/companies/saudi-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Saudipedia</a>. The newer rail is sarie, which <a href="https://sama.gov.sa/en-US/MediaCenter/News/Pages/news-649.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAMA launched on 20 February 2021</a>: round-the-clock transfers between banks for a fee of no more than SAR 1, sent to a mobile number instead of an IBAN, with amounts under SAR 20,000 credited instantly. It handled more than 74 million operations worth SAR 121 billion in its first half-year, <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/node/3151486" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asharq Al-Awsat reported</a>. The cumulative effect shows in SAMA's own numbers: electronic payments made up 85% of retail payments in 2025, up from 79% in 2024, across 14.6 billion transactions, per a <a href="https://sama.gov.sa/en-US/MediaCenter/News/Pages/news-1139.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAMA statement in April 2026</a>. Mada e-commerce alone reached about SAR 325.2 billion in 2025, up from SAR 197.4 billion, <a href="https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/geidea-expands-its-presence-in-saudi-arabias-digital-payments-market-1022860" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zawya reported</a>.</p>
<p>SAMA has also been selective about cross-border experiments. It joined the multi-central-bank mBridge platform as a full participant in June 2024, then ended its participation after completing a proof of concept on 13 May 2025, <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/saudi-arabia-exits-china-backed-mbridge-platform-amid-governance-and-compliance-concerns-556677-2026-09-20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today reported in September 2026</a>, citing the Financial Times. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">mBridge explainer</a> covers the project.</p>

<h2>Which are the largest fintech companies in Saudi Arabia?</h2>
<p>The largest Saudi fintech companies in 2026 are the two instalment and consumer finance providers, Tabby and Tamara. Tabby, headquartered in Saudi Arabia since its 2023 move from the UAE, was valued at $6.5 billion in September 2026. Tamara holds a SAMA finance company licence and operates across four Gulf markets. Both are expanding from buy now, pay later into broader financial services.</p>
<p>They sit in a fast-growing field. SAMA's governor said the kingdom had 281 fintech companies by August 2025, up from 82 in 2022, with cumulative investment above SAR 8.9 billion, in a <a href="https://www.bis.org/review/r251008g.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2025 speech</a>. The count reached 301 by the end of 2025, according to the Vision 2030 annual report as covered by <a href="https://en.sharikatmubasher.com/media-hub/news/21547247/fintech-firms-in-saudi-arabia-reach-301-in-2025?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mubasher</a>, and the governor put it at 371 by the end of August 2026 at Money20/20 in Riyadh, Arab News reported, against a National Fintech Strategy target of 525 active companies by 2030.</p>

<h3>Tabby</h3>
<p>Tabby raised $233 million in a Series F at a $6.5 billion valuation in September 2026, up from $4.5 billion in October 2025, with more than $18 billion of annualised transaction volume and 25 million registered users, according to <a href="https://enterpriseam.com/ksa/2026/09/15/tabby-hits-usd-6-5-bn-valuation-on-series-f-round/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EnterpriseAM</a>. Over the past year it secured SAMA consumer and SME finance licences and bought Tweeq, a SAMA-licensed wallet, adding accounts, cards and transfers. The round remains subject to SAMA approval, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/venture-capital-funding/tabby-raises-233m-at-6-5bn-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a> and other coverage.</p>

<h3>Tamara</h3>
<p>Tamara Finance Company is a Saudi joint-stock company supervised by SAMA under licence number 95/A Sh/202502, with share capital of SAR 515 million, according to <a href="https://tamara.co/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its website</a>. It offers Sharia-compliant instalments of up to 24 months with no late fees and lists Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain as markets. Tamara became Saudi Arabia's first fintech unicorn with a $340 million Series C in December 2023. In September 2025 it secured a Sharia-compliant asset-backed facility of up to $2.4 billion from a consortium of Goldman Sachs, Citi and Apollo-managed funds, $1.4 billion of it committed upfront, and said it had more than 20 million customers and 87,000 merchants, per <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2615390/business-economy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arab News</a>. It has not disclosed a valuation since the Series C.</p>

<h2>Which Saudi fintechs serve merchants and small businesses?</h2>
<p>For merchants and SMEs, the leading Saudi fintechs in 2026 include Geidea, a Riyadh-based payments and point-of-sale provider that says it serves over 530,000 businesses, HALA, which raised a $157 million Series B in September 2025 and serves more than 140,000 small businesses, and Lean Technologies, which supplies open banking APIs across the UAE and Saudi Arabia.</p>

<h3>Geidea</h3>
<p>Geidea sells card terminals, a payment gateway, payment links and soft POS, plus restaurant and retail software such as kiosks, kitchen screens and loyalty tools. Its Saudi site says it serves more than 530,000 businesses and operates under SAMA supervision from Riyadh, per <a href="https://geidea.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Geidea</a>. In March 2021 it became the first non-bank in the region to receive an acquiring licence from SAMA, <a href="https://thefintechtimes.com/fintech-geidea-receives-saudi-banking-license-the-first-non-bank-to-do-so/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Fintech Times reported</a>, and in September 2026 it announced national payment gateway accreditation for e-commerce and certification for its SoftPOS, with Tap to Pay on iPhone still awaiting SAMA approval, per Zawya. Its pitch is bundling: the terminal is the door, and the software and settlement keep the merchant.</p>

<h3>HALA</h3>
<p><a href="https://hala.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HALA</a> offers SME and freelancer business accounts with an IBAN, terminals and soft POS, expense cards, SADAD bill payments, payroll and POS-based financing, under a SAMA licence held by Hala Payments Company. In September 2025 it raised $157 million in a Series B led by TPG's Rise Fund and Sanabil Investments, and said it served more than 140,000 businesses and processed over $8 billion of transactions a year, according to <a href="https://tpg.com/news-and-insights/hala-raises-157m-in-one-of-the-middle-easts-largest-fintech-series-b-rounds-led-by-tpg-and-sanabil-investments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TPG</a>; its own site now cites more than 150,000 customers. Same-day settlement of card sales into the merchant's own account is the feature that matters most for a small shop's cash flow.</p>

<h3>Lean Technologies</h3>
<p>Lean provides account verification, financial data and pay-by-bank APIs and lists Saudi Arabia and the UAE as its markets. Its website cites more than AED 16 billion processed, over 2 million accounts connected and 350+ clients across MENA, including Tabby. It raised a $67.5 million Series B led by General Catalyst in November 2024, when it reported more than $2 billion of total transaction volume, per <a href="https://www.fintechfutures.com/fintech-innovation/saudi-fintech-lean-technologies-secures-67-5m-series-b-funding" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Futures</a>. The firm is a bet that open banking, already set out in Saudi Arabia, becomes a mainstream way to pay. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/">open banking explainer</a> compares models.</p>

<h2>Which digital banks and wallets lead in Saudi Arabia?</h2>
<p>STC Bank, licensed by a Council of Ministers decision in June 2021 and supervised by SAMA, is the most prominent digital bank in Saudi Arabia in 2026. It offers accounts, cards, financing and international transfers through an app. Wallets such as Tweeq, now part of Tabby, show the other path into banking: start with a stored-value licence, then add credit.</p>

<h3>STC Bank</h3>
<p>STC Bank's licence dates from Council of Ministers Decision No. 671 of 22 June 2021, and it reports paid-up capital of SAR 6.35 billion, according to <a href="https://www.stcbank.com.sa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its website</a>. It serves individuals, SMEs and larger businesses with prepaid and credit cards, savings products, personal and working capital financing, merchant POS and domestic and international transfers. In April 2025 its chief executive said it had about 1.5 million customers and would roll out its full range of services later that year, after stc injected $800 million; stc owns 85% and Western Union 15%, <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1807202" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Argaam reported</a>, citing Bloomberg. Its link to the country's largest telecoms group gives it distribution that a standalone startup cannot buy.</p>

<h3>Tweeq</h3>
<p>Tweeq is a SAMA-licensed digital wallet that Tabby agreed to acquire in 2024, as <a href="https://www.financemiddleeast.com/start-up-and-entrepreneurship/tabby-begins-working-with-banks-and-law-firms-to-prepare-ipo-reports/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Middle East reported</a>. It matters less as a standalone company than as an example of how licences, rather than technology, have become the scarce asset in Saudi fintech.</p>

<h2>How do Saudi Arabia's leading fintechs compare?</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>Base</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Tabby</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>BNPL, accounts, SME finance</td><td>$6.5B valuation, Sep 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tamara</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>BNPL, instalments to 24 months</td><td>Up to $2.4B asset-backed facility, Sep 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>STC Bank</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>Digital bank</td><td>About 1.5M customers, Apr 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Geidea</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>Terminals, gateway, POS software</td><td>530,000+ businesses (company, 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>HALA</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>SME accounts, POS, payroll</td><td>$157M Series B, Sep 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lean Technologies</td><td>UAE / Saudi Arabia</td><td>Open banking APIs</td><td>$67.5M Series B, Nov 2024</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tweeq (Tabby)</td><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>Digital wallet</td><td>Acquisition agreed, 2024</td></tr>
<tr><td>mada (Saudi Payments)</td><td>Riyadh</td><td>National card and POS network</td><td>SAR 325.2B e-commerce value, 2025</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Metrics marked "company" are self-reported on company websites and are not audited.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what a monthly remittance from Saudi Arabia costs</h2>
<p>Take a worker sending SAR 750, about $200 at the riyal's dollar peg, home each month. The World Bank's global average cost of sending $200 was 6.36% in Q3 2025. At that average, each transfer would cost about SAR 47.70 in fees and exchange-rate margin, or SAR 572.40 over a year. That is close to an extra month's transfer handed to intermediaries.</p>
<p>Gulf corridors are generally priced well below the global average because of competition, so the true cost for most senders will be lower. Scale it up anyway: if the SAR 165.5 billion that expats sent in 2025 had carried an all-in cost of just 2%, fees and FX margins would total about SAR 3.3 billion, roughly $880 million, in a single year. Every percentage point that digital competition removes is worth about SAR 1.65 billion to senders' families.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">In Saudi Arabia, the fintech prize is not the purchase. It is the payday transfer that leaves the country every month.</blockquote>
<p class="note">Illustrative calculation using the World Bank global average and SAMA's 2025 expat remittance total; corridor prices vary by provider, amount and destination. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> report tracks corridor prices.</p>

<h2>What to watch next in Saudi fintech</h2>
<p>Several dated events over the next year will show which way the sector is moving. Anyone considering a Saudi fintech licence, investment or product should take advice from a qualified local adviser.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Monthly SAMA data:</b> remittance figures for the rest of 2026, which will show whether March's record was a Ramadan effect or a trend, and whether Saudi nationals' outflows keep falling.</li>
<li><b>SAMA approval of Tabby's Series F:</b> the September 2026 round is subject to regulatory sign-off, and Tabby's CEO has said there is no rush to list.</li>
<li><b>Phone wallets and SoftPOS approvals:</b> SAMA's decision on Tap to Pay on iPhone for acquirers such as Geidea, a test of how quickly the domestic network opens to new acceptance methods, important for tourism and Hajj and Umrah spending.</li>
<li><b>Fintech count against target:</b> 371 firms by August 2026 against 525 by 2030; the next Fintech Saudi annual report will show whether licensing keeps that pace.</li>
<li><b>Cross-border infrastructure:</b> after leaving mBridge in May 2025, SAMA's next cross-border payments partnership will shape remittance rails. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-fintech-companies-2026/">UAE fintech guide</a> for how its neighbour is approaching the same question.</li>
<li><b>Instalments into credit:</b> whether BNPL leaders' new SAMA consumer and SME finance licences lead to larger, longer-term lending, which would bring more regulatory scrutiny.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Saudi model is distinctive. The state owns the rails, licences are scarce, and the big private winners are consumer finance companies rather than payment apps. Remittances, by contrast, are still mostly a counter business. That gap between a modern domestic stack and an older outbound one is where the next set of Saudi fintech companies will be built. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/">Gulf payroll cards and the wage protection system</a> shows where that money starts its journey.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement of any company. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/saudi-arabia-fintech-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Government Payroll and Wage Payments in India: NREGA to VB-G RAM G</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/government-payroll-and-wage-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/government-payroll-and-wage-payments/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>How India pays rural wage workers and 50 lakh central staff: ABPS, eFMS, wage-delay data and what the 125-day VB-G RAM G Act changes for state treasuries.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/government-payroll-and-wage-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In Balangir district of western Odisha, some rural job-scheme workers told surveyors in 2025 that they had waited more than five months for wages the law said should reach them in fifteen days. The money itself moved in seconds once it moved. Everything before that moment was the problem, and that is the real story of how the Indian state pays the people who work for it.</p>

<p>Government payroll in India runs on two very different tracks. One is the salaried track: roughly 50 lakh central government employees and 69 lakh central pensioners, plus several crore state employees, paid monthly through treasury systems that have been digitising for two decades. The other is the daily-wage track, dominated for twenty years by the rural employment guarantee, which paid crores of casual workers through a chain of muster rolls, wage lists and fund transfer orders. On 1 July 2026 that second track changed its legal basis entirely. This piece looks at what the data says about how well both tracks work, and where the next failures are likely to sit.</p>

<h2>The rails are almost fully digital already</h2>

<p>The headline numbers on digitisation are not in dispute. According to a <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/aug/doc2025826620001.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ministry of Rural Development overview published by PIB in August 2025</a>, the share of rural job-scheme wages paid through the electronic fund management system rose from 37% in 2013-14 to 99.94% in 2024-25. Aadhaar numbers seeded in the scheme database went from about 76 lakh in January 2014 to 13.45 crore, and 13.05 crore workers were linked to the Aadhaar Payment Bridge System, the NPCI mapper that routes a credit to whichever bank account a person's Aadhaar number currently points at.</p>

<p>That scale is enormous. The same document puts person-days generated in 2024-25 at 290.60 crore across 15.99 crore registered households, with women supplying 58.15% of the work, up from 48% in 2013-14. The budget allocation for 2025-26 was Rs 86,000 crore, against Rs 33,000 crore in 2013-14.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>99.94%</b><span>NREGA wages paid electronically, 2024-25</span></div><div class="stat"><b>13.05 cr</b><span>workers on the Aadhaar payment bridge</span></div><div class="stat"><b>290.6 cr</b><span>person-days generated in 2024-25</span></div></div>

<p>So when people talk about "digitising government wages" in India, they are describing something that has largely happened. The more useful question is what the digital rails did and did not fix.</p>

<h2>Where the delay actually lives</h2>

<p>A wage payment under the old scheme passed through roughly five hand-offs. A muster roll recorded attendance at the worksite. A wage list was generated after the roll closed. A fund transfer order (FTO) was created and digitally signed by two officials at the block or panchayat level. The FTO then went to the Centre, which released money through PFMS, and finally the credit landed in the worker's account through the Aadhaar bridge or an account-based transfer.</p>

<p>Official reporting measures the first half of that chain. In a <a href="https://eparlib.sansad.in/bitstream/123456789/2997031/1/AU456_IxRjkP.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lok Sabha reply on 22 July 2025</a>, the ministry said over 96% of FTOs had been generated within 15 days of muster roll closure in each of the previous five years, and that 100% of wage payments went directly to beneficiaries through DBT. The PIB overview put on-time FTO generation at 97.81% by March 2025.</p>

<p>Those figures are probably accurate, and they are also the wrong yardstick. An FTO generated on day 12 says nothing about when the Centre actually pushed the money, or whether the credit bounced because a bank account was no longer correctly mapped. Researchers at LibTech India have argued for years that the second stage, between FTO signing and credit, is where most delay accumulates, and that it was historically excluded from delay compensation calculations. Their <a href="https://libtech.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Press-Release-National-tracker-English_24-25.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024-25 national tracker</a> collected worker testimony of waits of up to three months in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh and over five months in parts of Odisha.</p>

<p>The money that never arrived is measurable too. Unpaid wages under the scheme rose from Rs 512.75 crore in 2020-21 to Rs 974.38 crore in 2024-25, according to ministry data compiled by <a href="https://www.indiaspend.com/data-viz/dataviz-unpaid-wages-fund-delays-persist-under-mgnregs-945157" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IndiaSpend</a> as of March 2025. The ministry told Parliament in July 2025 that all pending wage liabilities up to 2024-25 had since been cleared. Both statements can be true: liabilities get cleared in lumps, after the household has already borrowed to cover the gap.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A payment system is only as fast as its slowest signature, and in government payroll the slowest signature is usually a fund release, not a bank.</blockquote>

<h2>ABPS: the identity layer that cut both ways</h2>

<p>The Aadhaar-based payment system has existed in the scheme since 2017, but the government made it mandatory for wage payments from 1 January 2024, after several extensions from an original February 2023 date. The logic is sound on paper. A worker's Aadhaar becomes their financial address, so a changed or closed bank account no longer breaks the payment as long as the NPCI mapper is updated. It also makes duplicate or fictitious beneficiaries harder to sustain.</p>

<p>The cost was eligibility. A worker whose Aadhaar was not seeded, whose name was spelled differently on the job card, or whose bank had not completed mapping could not be paid through ABPS at all. Coverage reported by <a href="https://compass.rauias.com/current-affairs/aadhaar-based-payment-system-mandatory-nregs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rau's IAS</a> at the time noted that 12.7% of active workers were still ineligible in December 2023 and cited about 7.6 crore job-card deletions since April 2022, often linked to such mismatches. By April 2025, LibTech's tracker put ABPS ineligibility at 27.5% of all registered workers but only 1.5% of active workers.</p>

<p>That gap between "all" and "active" is the whole debate in one number. The government reads it as a clean-up success: the people actually working are almost all payable. Critics read the same figure as evidence that people who could not get linked simply stopped being counted as workers. The trend in participation is consistent with both readings. Workers who availed employment fell from 11.17 crore in 2020-21 to 7.88 crore in 2024-25, per the Lok Sabha reply, though the 2020-21 peak was inflated by pandemic-era demand.</p>

<h2>The new law: 125 days, shared bills, a weekly clock</h2>

<p>Parliament passed the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act in December 2025, and it replaced the 2005 Act from 1 July 2026. According to a <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/may/doc2026511867601.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PIB explainer from May 2026</a>, the guarantee rises to 125 days per household per year, with states allowed to notify a pause of up to 60 days during peak sowing and harvest. Wages are to be paid weekly, or within 15 days of muster roll closure, with compensation of 0.05% of unpaid wages per day of delay beyond the 16th day. The central share for 2026-27 is Rs 95,692.31 crore, and the total outlay is expected to exceed Rs 1.51 lakh crore once state shares are counted. The administrative expenditure ceiling goes from 6% to 9%.</p>

<p>The change that matters most for payments is the funding split. A <a href="https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/viksit-bharat-guarantee-for-rozgar-and-ajeevika-mission-gramin-act-2025/print_manually" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Drishti summary of the Act</a> describes a 60:40 Centre-state ratio for most states and 90:10 for northeastern and Himalayan states, where the old scheme had the Centre carrying the entire unskilled wage bill. In practice, every wage payment now needs two treasuries to have cash ready at the same time.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>MGNREGA (2005 Act)</th><th>VB-G RAM G (from 1 July 2026)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Guaranteed days per household</td><td>100</td><td>125, with up to 60 notified pause days</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wage funding</td><td>Centre paid full unskilled wage bill</td><td>60:40 Centre-state (90:10 in NE and Himalayan states)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Payment deadline</td><td>Within 15 days</td><td>Weekly, or within 15 days of muster closure</td></tr>
<tr><td>Delay compensation</td><td>Applied to delays, but the Centre's release stage was contested</td><td>0.05% of unpaid wages per day after day 16</td></tr>
<tr><td>Payment route</td><td>DBT, mandatory ABPS from Jan 2024</td><td>DBT to bank or post office accounts, e-KYC job cards</td></tr>
<tr><td>Central money (BE)</td><td>Rs 86,000 crore (2025-26)</td><td>Rs 95,692.31 crore (2026-27)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: what a late wage is worth</h2>

<p>Take a worker on a notified wage of Rs 300 a day who completes 12 days on a fortnightly muster roll. The wage due is Rs 3,600. Suppose the money arrives 46 days after the muster closes, roughly the kind of wait workers described to LibTech in Odisha and Karnataka, and not an extreme one.</p>

<ul>
<li>Days of delay counted for compensation: 46 minus 16 = 30 days.</li>
<li>Compensation rate: 0.05% per day x 30 days = 1.5%.</li>
<li>Compensation owed: 1.5% of Rs 3,600 = Rs 54.</li>
</ul>

<p>Rs 54 for a month-long delay works out to an annualised rate of about 18%. That sounds respectable until you compare it with what a rural household actually pays to bridge a month without wages from an informal lender, which is frequently far higher. And it assumes the compensation is calculated, approved and credited, which has historically been the weakest link. Our view: the rate is too low to change official behaviour on its own. What will change behaviour is whether the weekly clock gets measured end to end, from muster closure to credit, and published by state.</p>

<h2>Salaried payroll: quieter, but not finished</h2>

<p>On the salaried side, digitisation looks less dramatic because it happened earlier, but the numbers are large. Karnataka's HRMS, integrated with its Khajane-II treasury, covers about 5.03 lakh government employees and generates around 7.9 lakh pay bills a year, according to a <a href="https://saiindia.gov.in/uploads/media/Karnataka-Second-Conference-of-State-Finance-Secretaries-19092025-068ceb1f0363c91-64620654.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Karnataka presentation to a CAG conference of state finance secretaries in September 2025</a>. From 1 June 2025 the state stopped sending printed copies of roughly 7.5 lakh salary-bill vouchers a year to the Accountant General. Telangana is still entering records for about 3.48 lakh employees into its e-HRMS, with a 15 October 2026 target set in a review this month. Tamil Nadu's IFHRMS, sanctioned at Rs 288.91 crore in 2018, was designed for about 29,000 drawing and disbursing officers and 9 lakh digitised service registers.</p>

<p>Pensions show what end-to-end digitisation can do. The defence ministry's SPARSH system, launched in October 2020, handles both sanction and disbursement on one platform and had onboarded about 31 lakh of 32 lakh defence pensioners by April 2025, according to reporting on defence ministry figures. It replaced an arrangement involving three agencies and over 45,000 public interfaces. That is the model wage schemes have not reached: one ledger owning the entire path from entitlement to credit.</p>

<p>The fiscal pressure behind all of this is rising. The CAG's decade review found states' committed spending on salaries, pensions and interest grew 2.49 times between 2013-14 and 2022-23, to about Rs 15.64 lakh crore, with salaries the largest item in 19 states, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/states-salary-pension-interest-expenses-rise-2-5-times-since-fy14-cag-125092100328_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. When the payroll is that large a share of the budget, a treasury that cannot see its liabilities in real time ends up delaying whatever is easiest to delay. Historically, that has been wages for people with the least power to complain.</p>

<h2>Why this matters beyond India</h2>

<p>Many governments are now trying to replicate India's model of identity-linked payments; we cover the broader pattern in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/g2p-payments-around-the-world/">G2P payments around the world</a>. The Indian lesson is uncomfortable but useful. Identity-based routing removes one class of failure, the stale bank account, and introduces another, the identity mismatch that blocks a payment entirely. It also tends to make delays look like someone else's problem, because each stage reports its own on-time rate. Gulf states solved a different version of this with mandated wage-file monitoring, described in our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/">wage protection systems and payroll cards</a>, which put the employer's payment date itself under surveillance.</p>

<p>For readers following India's welfare plumbing more broadly, our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">direct benefit transfer</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">India's digital public infrastructure</a> cover the shared rails, and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/state-treasury-digital-payments-india/">how state treasuries move money</a> explains why the new 60:40 split makes state cash management the critical variable.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>15 October 2026:</b> Telangana's deadline for completing e-HRMS records for its roughly 3.48 lakh employees. Slippage would be an early signal of how hard state payroll consolidation still is.</li>
<li><b>Q3 and Q4 of 2026-27:</b> the first full quarters of VB-G RAM G payments. Watch whether states publish end-to-end payment times, not just FTO generation rates, and whether any state's 40% share arrives late enough to trigger compensation at scale.</li>
<li><b>Around April 2027:</b> the 8th Central Pay Commission, whose terms of reference the Cabinet approved in late October 2025 with an 18-month deadline, is due to report. Its recommendations, expected to take effect from 1 January 2026 per <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/top-headlines/cabinet-nod-to-8th-pay-commissions-terms-of-reference-50l-central-employees-to-benefit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Tribune</a>, will mean arrears calculations for about 50 lakh employees and 69 lakh pensioners, a large stress test for payroll systems.</li>
<li><b>1 February 2027:</b> the Union Budget for 2027-28 will show whether the central allocation for rural employment holds near Rs 95,692 crore once actual state co-funding behaviour is known.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">Figures are from government releases and independent trackers as cited; scheme data is revised frequently, so check the latest ministry dashboards for current values.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/government-payroll-and-wage-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Top UK Fintech Companies 2026: Revolut, Monzo, Wise and More</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-fintech-companies-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-fintech-companies-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Companies</category><description>The leading UK fintech companies in 2026, from Revolut, Monzo and Wise to Checkout.com, Zopa and OakNorth, compared by customers, revenue and profit.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A fishmonger at Kirkgate Market in Leeds takes card payments on a terminal from one fintech, banks her takings with a second, pays her Norwegian supplier through a third, and keeps her rainy-day pot in a savings app run by a fourth. Fifteen years ago every one of those jobs belonged to a high-street bank. In 2026 the UK has the deepest bench of independent fintech companies in Europe, several now profitable and fully licensed, even as fresh venture money into the sector has fallen to its lowest level in a decade.</p>

<h2>How did we choose the leading UK fintech companies for 2026?</h2>
<p>We selected UK fintech companies for 2026 on measurable criteria as of October 2026: customers, revenue and profit in the latest reported year, payment or lending volume, licences held, and valuation where disclosed. We grouped them by category rather than ranking them, because a challenger bank, a payment processor and a business lender earn money in very different ways.</p>
<p>The funding climate is the backdrop. UK fintech investment fell to £1.8 billion across 205 deals in the first half of 2026, down about two-thirds from £5.0 billion a year earlier and the lowest since KPMG began the series in 2016, according to <a href="https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2026/08/uk-fintech-funding-drops-to-a-decade-low.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KPMG's August 2026 release</a>. The largest deal was a £543 million private equity investment in Ebury. Thin funding makes profits matter more, and most of this list now has them.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>68.3M</b><span>Revolut retail customers worldwide, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>£1.7bn</b><span>Revolut profit before tax, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>£1.8bn</b><span>UK fintech investment, H1 2026 (KPMG)</span></div></div>

<h2>Which UK digital banks are largest in 2026?</h2>
<p>By revenue and customers, Revolut is the UK's largest fintech in 2026, with £4.5 billion of 2025 revenue, £1.7 billion of pre-tax profit and 68.3 million retail customers worldwide. Monzo is second, with £1.7 billion of revenue and 15.2 million customers in the year to March 2026, and Starling is the most profitable per pound of revenue among the three.</p>
<h3>Revolut</h3>
<p>Revolut's 2025 revenue rose 46% to £4.5 billion and profit before tax rose 57% to £1.7 billion, with 68.3 million retail and 767,000 business customers, according to <a href="https://euronews.com/business/2026/03/24/revolut-reported-record-financial-results-with-revenue-rising-by-46-to-52bn-in-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Euronews</a>. Its last funding round valued it at $75 billion. The licence saga is over: Revolut won a restricted UK banking licence in July 2024 and the Prudential Regulation Authority let it leave mobilisation in March 2026, after about 20 months, as <a href="https://tech.eu/2026/03/11/revolut-wins-full-uk-banking-licence-as-finally-exits-mobilisation-phase/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tech.eu reported</a>. It has about 13 million UK customers.</p>
<h3>Monzo</h3>
<p>Monzo's revenue rose 39% to £1.7 billion in the year to March 2026, with adjusted profit before tax of £172.6 million, 15.2 million customers and deposits of £25.7 billion, up 55%, per <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2026/05/19/monzo-fy2026-results-revenue-profit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert</a>. It launched in Ireland in April 2026 on a Central Bank of Ireland licence and closed its US operations.</p>
<h3>Starling Bank</h3>
<p>Starling is the exception to the growth story. Revenue fell to £887 million in the year to March 2026 and pre-tax profit dipped 3% to £217 million as interest income dropped with rates, while accounts rose to 6.2 million, according to <a href="https://tech.eu/2026/05/21/starling-s-saas-business-sees-revenue-surge-but-group-profits-dip/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tech.eu</a>. Its software arm, Engine, signed Scotiabank's Tangerine as its first North American client.</p>

<h2>Which UK payments companies lead in 2026?</h2>
<p>Wise is the UK's largest listed payments fintech in 2026, moving $243 billion across borders in the year to March 2026 and switching its primary listing to Nasdaq in May. Checkout.com is the largest private UK payments processor by volume, handling more than $300 billion in 2025. GoCardless and TrueLayer lead bank-to-bank payments.</p>
<h3>Wise</h3>
<p>Wise began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker WSE on May 11, 2026, keeping a secondary London listing. For its fiscal year to March 2026 it reported $243 billion of cross-border volume, up 31%, net revenue of $2.5 billion and $39 billion of customer balances, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/05/278596-global-fintech-wise-begins-trading-on-nasdaq/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rates and zero-fee transfers</a> covers how its pricing compares.</p>
<h3>Checkout.com</h3>
<p>London-based Checkout.com processes online card payments for large merchants. It said in February 2026 that processed volume passed $300 billion in 2025, up 64%, with net revenue up more than 30% and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin above 10%, per its <a href="https://www.checkout.com/newsroom/checkout-com-returns-to-full-year-profitability-and-surpasses-300b-in-volume-as-it-positions-for-the-era-of-agentic-commerce" target="_blank" rel="noopener">newsroom</a>. A September 2025 staff share buyback set a $12 billion valuation.</p>
<h3>GoCardless</h3>
<p>GoCardless runs direct debit and open banking collections for subscription and invoice businesses. In the year to June 2025 its revenue rose about 18% to £155.5 million, payment volume doubled to £79.2 billion after the Nuapay acquisition, and its loss narrowed to £25.5 million, according to <a href="https://tech.eu/2026/04/13/gocardless-sees-revenue-boost-plans-to-cut-around-90-roles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tech.eu</a>. It posted its first adjusted EBITDA-positive quarter in the final quarter of that year and expects a first EBITDA-positive full year in 2026.</p>
<h3>TrueLayer</h3>
<p>TrueLayer provides open banking payment APIs in the UK and Europe. It processed 188 million transactions in 2024, up 84%, on revenue of £20.3 million and a pre-tax loss of £38.6 million, as Tech.eu reported from its accounts. Its numbers are small next to card processors, which is the point: account-to-account payments in the UK are still early.</p>

<h2>Which UK lenders, savings and banking infrastructure firms stand out?</h2>
<p>By profit, OakNorth is the largest UK fintech lender in 2026, earning £223 million before tax in 2025 on a £7.2 billion loan portfolio. Zopa reported £65 million of underlying profit, Moneybox reached £23.2 billion in assets under administration by mid-2026, and ClearBank, which provides clearing to other fintechs, posted a third year of UK profit.</p>
<h3>OakNorth</h3>
<p>OakNorth lends to growing mid-sized businesses. In 2025 it earned £223 million before tax, grew new originations 33% to £2.8 billion and expanded its loan facilities portfolio to £7.2 billion, with the US accounting for 40% of new lending, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/03/267476-digital-bank-oaknorth-reports-yoy-increase-in-gross-originations-with-considerable-us-activity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>.</p>
<h3>Zopa</h3>
<p>Zopa, a lender turned bank, reported 2025 revenue of £377.1 million, up 24%, and underlying profit before tax of £65 million, with 1.7 million customers and £6.4 billion of deposits, per <a href="https://www.zopa.com/blog/article/zopa-delivers-65-million-profit-in-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the bank's own release</a>. Its Biscuit current account signed up hundreds of thousands of customers within months of launch.</p>
<h3>Moneybox</h3>
<p>Moneybox offers savings, investing, pensions and Lifetime ISAs. By its second quarter of 2026 it had £23.2 billion of assets under administration, up 40%, 1.9 million funded customers and quarterly revenue of £41.2 million, up 52%, per its <a href="https://support.moneyboxapp.com/app/q2-2026-shareholder-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shareholder update</a>.</p>
<h3>ClearBank</h3>
<p>ClearBank is a clearing bank for other fintechs and payment firms. In 2025 its normalised group revenue rose 34% to £121.6 million, UK pre-tax profit rose 53% to £12.2 million and payment scheme volumes jumped 57% to 262 million, though the group made a statutory loss of £16.7 million as it invested in Europe, according to its <a href="https://clear.bank/learn/news/clearbank-delivers-third-consecutive-year-of-uk-profitability-as-revenue-grows-34-and-payment-volumes-jump-57" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>.</p>

<h2>How do the leading UK fintech companies compare?</h2>
<p>As of October 2026, the UK's fintech leaders split between profitable licensed banks (Revolut, Monzo, Starling, Zopa, OakNorth), payments firms reporting volume (Wise, Checkout.com, GoCardless, TrueLayer) and specialist platforms (Moneybox, ClearBank). The table shows each one's latest dated metric.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Company</th><th>HQ</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest dated metric</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Revolut</td><td>London</td><td>Global finance app, now a full UK bank</td><td>£4.5bn revenue, £1.7bn PBT (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Monzo</td><td>London</td><td>Digital bank, personal and business</td><td>£1.7bn revenue, 15.2M customers (FY to Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Starling</td><td>London</td><td>Digital bank, Engine software</td><td>£887m revenue, £217m PBT (FY to Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wise</td><td>London (Nasdaq-listed)</td><td>Cross-border transfers and accounts</td><td>$243bn cross-border volume (FY to Mar 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Checkout.com</td><td>London</td><td>Online card processing</td><td>$300bn+ volume (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>OakNorth</td><td>London</td><td>Mid-market business lending</td><td>£223m PBT (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Zopa</td><td>London</td><td>Loans, savings, current account</td><td>£377.1m revenue (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Moneybox</td><td>London</td><td>Savings, investing, pensions</td><td>£23.2bn AUA (Q2 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>GoCardless</td><td>London</td><td>Direct debit and open banking collections</td><td>£155.5m revenue (FY to Jun 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>ClearBank</td><td>London</td><td>Clearing bank for fintechs</td><td>£121.6m revenue (2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>TrueLayer</td><td>London</td><td>Open banking payments</td><td>188M transactions (2024)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>What does revenue per customer reveal? A worked example</h2>
<p>Dividing revenue by customers in the latest year shows Revolut earns about £66 per customer, Monzo about £112 and Starling about £143. Revolut's lower figure reflects a huge international base of lighter users, yet it converts revenue into profit far more efficiently, with a margin near 38% against roughly 10% at Monzo.</p>
<p>The arithmetic: Revolut's £4.5 billion over 68.3 million retail customers is about £66 each. Monzo's £1.7 billion over 15.2 million is about £112. Starling's £887 million over 6.2 million accounts is about £143. On profit, Revolut's £1.7 billion is 38% of revenue, Starling's £217 million is about 24% and Monzo's adjusted £172.6 million is about 10%.</p>
<p>Two lessons follow. Starling earns the most per customer because many of its accounts are main business accounts, and 56% of its SME customers use it as their primary bank. But it is also the most exposed to falling rates, which is why its revenue fell while the others grew. Monzo, still investing in Europe and mortgages, has the most room to widen margins if those bets work.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The UK's three big digital banks have the same app-shaped front end and three entirely different businesses behind it.</blockquote>

<h2>How is the UK regulating stablecoins in 2026?</h2>
<p>The UK published final stablecoin rules in 2026. The FCA regulates all UK issuers, opening its authorisation gateway on September 30, 2026, and the regime goes live on October 25, 2027. The Bank of England adds stricter rules for issuers deemed systemic, including a £40 billion guardrail per coin, having dropped earlier proposed holding limits.</p>
<p>Under the FCA's policy statement, issuers must fully back coins, keep at least 10% in core assets such as on-demand deposits and short-term government debt, and redeem by the end of the next business day, according to <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2026/06/30/fca-crypto-rules-bank-stablecoin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert</a>. Systemic issuers must hold 30% at the central bank and 70% in short-dated gilts. ClearBank's chief executive argued the rules still make bank issuance hard to run profitably. Our detailed guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-stablecoin-regime-fca-bank-of-england/">UK stablecoin regime</a> covers the full rulebook.</p>

<h2>What should you watch in UK fintech next?</h2>
<p>The key dates for UK fintech are the FCA stablecoin gateway, open from September 30, 2026 to February 28, 2027, the regime's go-live on October 25, 2027, and Revolut's aim of 100 million customers by mid-2027. Whether funding recovers from a decade low will decide which younger London fintechs reach the scale of this list.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Now to February 28, 2027:</b> FCA authorisation gateway for stablecoin issuers and crypto firms.</li>
<li><b>October 25, 2027:</b> UK stablecoin and cryptoasset regime goes live.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> Revolut's target of 100 million customers, alongside its pending US banking licence application filed in March 2026.</li>
<li><b>Listings:</b> Wise's Nasdaq move is a test case. A strong run would encourage Revolut, Monzo or Starling to list in New York rather than London.</li>
<li><b>Remittance pricing:</b> Competition from Wise and Revolut keeps pushing down the cost of sending money from Britain, as our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/">UK to India money transfer guide</a> shows.</li>
</ul>
<p>For comparison, see our lists of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-fintech-companies-2026/">leading US fintech companies</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/canada-fintech-companies-2026/">Canadian fintech companies</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This list is editorial research, not investment advice or an endorsement. Company figures are as reported by the linked sources; profit measures differ between companies (statutory, adjusted or underlying).</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-fintech-companies-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>e₹ vs UPI: Why India Runs Two Digital Payment Systems at Once</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>UPI moves bank money; the e₹ is central bank money. Here is how the two differ for users and merchants, and why the RBI keeps building both side by side.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupee-vs-upi.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Here is a question we hear often from people abroad: if India already has UPI, which handled more than 24 billion transactions in September 2026 alone, why did the Reserve Bank of India bother building a digital rupee? It sounds like a country building a second road next to an empty-ish highway. The answer is that they are not the same road, and they are not even carrying the same cargo.</p>

<h2>The one-line difference</h2>
<p>UPI is a set of rails that moves money between bank accounts. The e₹ is the money itself, issued by the central bank and held in a digital wallet. When you pay a chai stall with UPI, your bank debits your account and the stall's bank credits theirs. When you pay with e₹ from wallet to wallet, a digital token issued by the RBI moves from your phone to theirs, and no bank account is touched.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://rbi.org.in/commonman/English/scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=3686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI's FAQ</a> spells this out: wallet-to-wallet e₹ payments settle instantly, while an e₹ app that scans a UPI QR code settles on UPI's timelines.</p>

<h2>The scale gap</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>24.07B</b><span>UPI transactions in September 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>802M</b><span>average UPI transactions per day that month</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>120M+</b><span>total retail e₹ transactions since Dec 2022, as of Dec 2025</span></div>
</div>
<p>According to NPCI data reported by <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/banking/upi-processes-2407-billion-transactions-worth-rs-2937-lakh-crore-in-september" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money</a>, UPI moved ₹29.37 lakh crore in September 2026, with volume up 23% on the year. The retail e₹, by comparison, had crossed 120 million transactions in total by December 2025, according to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/retail-cbdc-transactions-hit-120-mn-value-crosses-28-000-crore-rbi-dg-125120501178_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar</a>. At September's pace, UPI clears that many payments in under four hours.</p>
<p>So this is not a race. Nobody at the RBI expects the e₹ to replace UPI for buying groceries.</p>

<h2>Side by side</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>UPI</th><th>e₹ (retail)</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>What moves</td><td>Commercial bank deposits</td><td>Central bank money</td></tr>
<tr><td>Whose liability</td><td>Your bank</td><td>The RBI</td></tr>
<tr><td>Where it sits</td><td>Your bank account</td><td>A wallet app</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest</td><td>Savings account interest applies</td><td>None</td></tr>
<tr><td>Spending rules</td><td>None at the money level</td><td>Sponsors can set expiry, location or merchant limits</td></tr>
<tr><td>Offline</td><td>Limited options</td><td>Offline capability introduced in the pilot</td></tr>
<tr><td>Merchant QR</td><td>UPI QR</td><td>Can scan UPI QR; wallet-to-wallet also possible</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<h2>What changes for a regular user</h2>
<p>Honestly, not much on day one. If you live in Bengaluru and pay your rent, electricity and food delivery through UPI, the e₹ adds a second balance you have to top up. You get no interest on it, and wallets offered by non-banks such as MobiKwik and Cred cap transfers at ₹10,000 each and ₹50,000 a day, according to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/cred-first-non-bank-to-offer-cbdc-launches-e-rupee-wallet-for-users-125012800753_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a>.</p>
<p>Where it changes things is when someone else sends you e₹ with conditions. A company might pay a delivery rider's fuel allowance in e₹ that only works at petrol pumps. A state government might pay a welfare benefit that has to be spent within a window. The user sees the rules in the wallet. For the sender, it removes a lot of audit work.</p>

<h2>What changes for a merchant</h2>
<p>For the shopkeeper, the friction is low because e₹ wallets can pay a standard UPI QR code. A kirana store in Lucknow does not need new hardware. If the customer pays from wallet to wallet, the merchant receives central bank money that is final at once, rather than waiting on bank-to-bank settlement. Merchant numbers in the pilot are still modest: RBI data showed about 0.42 million merchants by June 2024.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">UPI made moving money cheap. The e₹ is a bet that money with instructions attached is worth having too.</blockquote>

<h2>Why the RBI keeps both</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Resilience.</b> UPI depends on banks being online. A central bank token that can work offline is a backup for outages, disasters and dead zones.</li>
  <li><b>Programmability.</b> Rules at the money level are hard to bolt onto account-to-account transfers. They are native to a token.</li>
  <li><b>Cash costs.</b> Printing, transporting and replacing notes is expensive. A digital equivalent of cash, held directly against the central bank, is the logical replacement for some of that.</li>
  <li><b>Cross-border.</b> Central banks are testing how their digital currencies could settle with each other, a theme we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">our mBridge explainer</a>. UPI's international links follow a different path, through linkages such as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a>.</li>
</ul>

<h2>A month in two wallets</h2>
<p>To make this concrete, picture Ravi, a delivery rider in Hyderabad. His salary arrives in his bank account, and he pays rent, his phone bill and his daily tea through UPI, as he always has. Nothing about that changes.</p>
<p>Now suppose his employer starts paying the monthly fuel allowance in e₹ instead of cash reimbursements. The money lands in an e₹ wallet with a rule attached: it can only be spent at fuel stations, and it expires at the end of the month. Ravi does not have to keep receipts. His employer does not have to audit them. At the pump, he scans the same QR code he would use for UPI. If the station is in a patch of poor signal on the edge of the city, the offline capability the RBI has been piloting is meant to let the payment go through anyway.</p>
<p>For Ravi, the e₹ is not a replacement for anything. It is a narrow tool that appears when someone else wants to send him money for a specific purpose. That is a realistic picture of how most Indians will meet the digital rupee: through a scheme, an allowance or a subsidy, rather than by choosing it at the checkout.</p>
<p>The same logic applies to merchants. A fuel station that already shows a UPI QR does not have to do anything new to accept that allowance. The cost of supporting the e₹ is close to zero for them, which is precisely why the RBI made the two interoperable.</p>

<h2>Our view</h2>
<p>We think the two-track approach is sensible, and the comparison people make between them is mostly the wrong one. UPI answered the question of how to move a rupee cheaply between any two accounts in India. The e₹ answers a different one: what if the rupee itself could carry instructions, work without a network, and be held without a bank in the middle? Most households do not need that today. Government departments, employers and, eventually, cross-border corridors might.</p>
<p>For the basics of the digital rupee itself, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">our e₹ explainer</a>. For how India's bill payment network fits around both, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect explained</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupee-vs-upi.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Regulation by Country 2026: 12 Jurisdictions Compared</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-by-country-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-by-country-2026/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Stablecoin rules in 12 countries as of October 2026: US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, UK, UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Korea, Australia, India.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-regulation-by-country-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A payroll manager in Lisbon pays forty contractors across three continents every month, and since last year she has been tempted to do it in dollar stablecoins. Before she can, she has to answer a question that did not exist two years ago: which stablecoin is legal where? In the EU, the platform she uses had to stop offering USDT spot trading. In Brazil, paying a contractor in a stablecoin counts as a foreign exchange operation. In Singapore, the coin needs a licence before anyone can call it MAS-regulated. Stablecoin regulation is no longer a vague future risk. It is a patchwork of real laws, and it decides which coins can move where.</p>

<p>This guide compares the rules in twelve jurisdictions as of October 2026, from the United States to India. We focus on four questions for each: what the law is, who supervises issuers, how far it has got, and how it treats foreign coins like USDT and USDC. Total stablecoin supply is about $306 billion as of October 2026 according to DefiLlama, with USDT at roughly $184 billion and USDC at about $73 billion, so the treatment of those two coins matters more than any local design choice.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>18 Jan 2027</b><span>latest date the US GENIUS Act takes effect</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1 Jul 2026</b><span>end of MiCA's transition for crypto service providers</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Apr 2026</b><span>Hong Kong grants its first two issuer licences</span></div></div>

<h2>Four models for regulating stablecoins</h2>

<p>Strip away the acronyms and most countries fall into one of four camps.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Licensed issuer regimes.</b> A dedicated licence for issuers, with 1:1 reserves, redemption at par and a ban on paying interest. The US, EU, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Canada are here.</li>
<li><b>Central bank as backstop.</b> The UK adds a second layer for systemic coins, with backing partly held at the central bank and a cap on issuance.</li>
<li><b>Gatekeeping through FX and payments law.</b> Brazil treats stablecoin payments as foreign exchange. The UAE lets foreign coins be used mainly to buy other crypto, reserving payments for licensed dirham tokens.</li>
<li><b>No regime yet.</b> India, South Korea and Australia have no live issuer framework, though each is somewhere on the road to one.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our view is that the first model has won the argument. Nearly every jurisdiction that has legislated has landed on the same core: full reserves in short, safe assets, a legal redemption right and no yield to holders. The real differences lie at the edges, in how foreign coins get in and how much of the reserve income an issuer gets to keep.</p>

<h2>The comparison table</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Jurisdiction</th><th>Main law or framework</th><th>Issuer supervisor</th><th>Status (Oct 2026)</th><th>Foreign coins</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>GENIUS Act (Public Law 119-27)</td><td>OCC, FDIC, Fed, NCUA, states</td><td>Rules proposed; effective by 18 Jan 2027</td><td>Allowed if comparable regime; Treasury can bar non-compliant issuers</td></tr>
<tr><td>European Union</td><td>MiCA</td><td>National authorities; ESMA keeps the register</td><td>Fully applied; CASP transition ended 1 Jul 2026</td><td>Must be issued by an authorised EU entity</td></tr>
<tr><td>United Kingdom</td><td>FSMA crypto regime; BoE systemic regime</td><td>FCA; Bank of England if systemic</td><td>Final rules June 2026; go-live 25 Oct 2027</td><td>FCA perimeter; BoE may defer to home regulator</td></tr>
<tr><td>UAE</td><td>CBUAE Payment Token Services Regulation</td><td>CBUAE; VARA, FSRA, DFSA in their zones</td><td>In force; dirham tokens approved in principle</td><td>Onshore use limited to buying virtual assets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>MAS stablecoin framework (2023), PSA amendments</td><td>MAS</td><td>Draft law consultation to 16 Oct 2026</td><td>Unlicensed coins cannot be called MAS-regulated</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hong Kong</td><td>Stablecoins Ordinance</td><td>HKMA</td><td>In force; first licences April 2026</td><td>Issuers need an HKMA licence</td></tr>
<tr><td>Japan</td><td>Payment Services Act (2023 revision)</td><td>FSA</td><td>In force; JPYC live since Oct 2025</td><td>Issuers must register domestically</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brazil</td><td>BCB Resolutions 519, 520, 521</td><td>Banco Central do Brasil</td><td>In force since 2 Feb 2026</td><td>Payments treated as FX; $100,000 cap with unlicensed foreign parties</td></tr>
<tr><td>Canada</td><td>Stablecoin Act (Bill C-15)</td><td>Bank of Canada</td><td>Royal Assent 26 Mar 2026; rules being built</td><td>Framework still being designed</td></tr>
<tr><td>South Korea</td><td>Digital Asset Basic Act (draft)</td><td>FSC (proposed)</td><td>Bills pending; issuer eligibility disputed</td><td>No specific regime</td></tr>
<tr><td>Australia</td><td>Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework)</td><td>AFSL licensing (platforms only)</td><td>Passed 2026; no dedicated issuer regime</td><td>No specific regime</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>Income-tax Act; PMLA</td><td>None for issuers; FIU-IND for AML</td><td>Discussion paper unpublished</td><td>Taxed as VDAs; platforms must register</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>United States and Canada: the dollar bloc writes its rules</h2>

<p>The <a href="https://tazapay.com/blog/genius-act-one-year-later-stablecoin-rules-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GENIUS Act</a> was signed on 18 July 2025. It requires 1:1 reserves in cash, short-dated Treasuries and similar instruments, monthly public disclosure of reserve composition, and bans issuers from paying interest or yield. Issuers with no more than $10 billion outstanding can opt for state supervision if the state regime qualifies. Foreign issuers can be designated non-compliant by Treasury, which would bar service providers from facilitating secondary trading in their coins.</p>

<p>Implementation has slipped. The statute set a one-year deadline for rules, 18 July 2026, and none had been finalised by then. Regulators had issued around ten proposals, including the OCC's main reserves and capital proposal on 25 February 2026 and a Treasury proposal on state-regime similarity in April. The <a href="https://www.chapman.com/publication-genius-act-rulemaking-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chapman tracker</a> notes the Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 January 2027 or 120 days after final rules. In practice that means January. We track the rulemaking in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">our GENIUS Act implementation guide</a>.</p>

<p>Canada moved faster than many expected. Its Stablecoin Act was folded into the Budget Implementation Act, Bill C-15, which received Royal Assent on 26 March 2026, <a href="https://www.fasken.com/en/knowledge/2026/03/budget-2025-the-bank-of-canadas-mandate-expands-to-stablecoin-and-open-banking-supervision" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fasken reports</a>. Issuers will register with the Bank of Canada, hold 1:1 high-quality liquid reserves in the reference currency and offer redemption at par. The Bank's mandate took effect at Royal Assent, but the detailed framework will take years to build.</p>

<h2>Europe: MiCA reaches its hard deadline</h2>

<p>The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation started applying to stablecoins in June 2024 and to all crypto service providers by the end of a transition that closed on 1 July 2026, with ESMA refusing extensions. MiCA splits stablecoins into e-money tokens referencing one currency and asset-referenced tokens referencing baskets, and requires issuers to be authorised in the EU. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained/">MiCA EMT and ART explainer</a> covers the categories in detail.</p>

<p>The practical result is that foreign coins without an EU issuer are being squeezed. Tether has no MiCA authorisation, and Coinbase, Kraken, Crypto.com and Binance's EU entity have delisted or restricted USDT spot trading for EU users, according to <a href="https://stablecoininsider.org/micas-july-1-hard-deadline-is-here-what-changes-today-for-stablecoins-in-europe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a review of the July deadline</a>. USDC and EURC are authorised through Circle's French e-money subsidiary. ESMA's interim register of e-money tokens listed 50 entries from 25 issuers as of 30 September 2026.</p>

<h2>United Kingdom: two regulators and a £40bn ceiling</h2>

<p>The FCA published final crypto rules on 30 June 2026, including PS26/10 on stablecoin issuance: full backing on statutory trust, redemption by the end of the next business day and no interest to holders. Authorisation becomes mandatory on 25 October 2027. The Bank of England adds a regime for systemic sterling coins. Its June 2026 policy dropped proposed £20,000 per-person holding limits and replaced them with a temporary £40 billion issuance guardrail per coin, with 30% of backing held as unremunerated deposits at the Bank and 70% in gilts of up to six months. No other major jurisdiction caps issuance of coins in its own currency.</p>

<h2>Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea and Australia</h2>

<p><b>Hong Kong</b> has the most advanced Asian regime in practice. Its Stablecoins Ordinance took effect in 2025, requiring licensed issuers to keep reserves fully backed by high-quality liquid assets, segregated and independently audited, with redemption within one business day. On 10 April 2026 the HKMA granted the first two licences, to HSBC and to Anchorpoint Financial, a joint venture of Standard Chartered, HKT and Animoca Brands, <a href="https://www.charltonslaw.com/hkma-issues-first-stablecoin-issuer-licences/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charltons reports</a>. HSBC plans a Hong Kong dollar coin in the second half of 2026.</p>

<p><b>Singapore</b> set out its single-currency stablecoin framework in August 2023 but is only now legislating it. A MAS consultation on amendments to the Payment Services Act 2019, published on 1 September 2026, closes on 16 October 2026, <a href="https://www.gibsondunn.com/singapore-publishes-draft-legislation-to-implement-its-stablecoin-framework/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gibson Dunn notes</a>. Only licensed issuers could call their coins MAS-regulated, with fines of up to S$250,000 for entities that falsely claim the label. Reserves must at all times at least equal the par value in circulation.</p>

<p><b>Japan</b> was one of the first major economies to legislate, through a June 2023 revision that requires stablecoin issuers to be registered under banking or funds transfer rules. JPYC registered as a fund transfer provider in August 2025 and began issuing the first yen stablecoin on 27 October 2025, fully reserved in yen deposits and government bonds, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/376199/japan-jpyc-launches-yen-stablecoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>.</p>

<p><b>South Korea</b> remains stuck. The Financial Services Commission and the ruling Democratic Party are drafting a consolidated Digital Asset Basic Act, but about ten digital asset bills sit before the National Assembly and lawmakers disagree over whether won stablecoin issuers should be controlled by bank-led consortiums, <a href="https://sumsub.com/media/news/south-korea-plans-consolidated-digital-asset-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sumsub reported in July 2026</a>.</p>

<p><b>Australia</b> passed the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill in 2026, requiring digital asset platforms and tokenised custody platforms to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence, with commencement about 12 months after Royal Assent. It does not create a dedicated stablecoin issuer regime.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The fight is no longer about whether stablecoins are allowed. It is about whose stablecoins.</blockquote>

<h2>The Gulf, Latin America and India</h2>

<p><b>The UAE</b> runs a dirham-first policy. Under the Central Bank's Payment Token Services Regulation, dirham tokens need a full licence and can be used for payments, while foreign coins from registered issuers can be used onshore mainly to buy virtual assets. Federal Decree-Law No. 6 of 2025 then extended Central Bank licensing to DeFi and to promotion, with criminal fines of up to AED 500 million for unlicensed activity. The financial free zones ADGM and DIFC keep their own token lists. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/">Asia and Gulf rules comparison</a> sets this against Singapore and Hong Kong.</p>

<p><b>Brazil</b> took the most unusual route. Banco Central do Brasil Resolutions 519, 520 and 521, in force since 2 February 2026, treat buying, selling or paying with fiat-pegged tokens, including cross-border transfers, as foreign exchange. Transfers with unlicensed foreign counterparties are capped at $100,000 each, and providers must identify the owners of self-custodied wallets they send to or receive from, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/brazil-central-bank-crypto-rules-stablecoins-foreign-exchange" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph reported</a>. The central bank's president, Gabriel Galipolo, has said about 90% of Brazil's crypto activity involves stablecoins. For the domestic payments context see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">our Pix and Drex explainer</a>.</p>

<p><b>India</b> has no stablecoin framework. Crypto gains are taxed at 30% with 1% TDS on transfers, platforms must register with FIU-IND under anti-money-laundering law, and the RBI remains opposed to private stablecoins, preferring its own e-rupee. The Finance Ministry's discussion paper on crypto, in drafting since 2022, had not appeared as of October 2026.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the same coin under three rulebooks</h2>

<p>Take a hypothetical issuer with 10 billion units in circulation and see how three regimes treat it.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>US dollar coin under GENIUS.</b> All $10 billion can sit in cash, short Treasuries and similar instruments. For every 1 percentage point of yield, gross reserve income is about $100 million a year, none of which may be paid to holders as interest.</li>
<li><b>Sterling coin recognised as systemic in the UK.</b> £3 billion (30%) must sit at the Bank of England earning nothing; £7 billion can be in short gilts. Each percentage point of yield earns about £70 million, roughly 30% less than the US case. The coin can grow to £40 billion before hitting the guardrail.</li>
<li><b>A Brazilian importer using the dollar coin.</b> Paying a $250,000 invoice to an unlicensed offshore counterparty would breach the $100,000 per-transfer cap, so the payment has to go through a licensed FX institution or an authorised virtual-asset provider, and is reported as an FX operation.</li>
</ol>

<p>Identical coins carry very different economics depending on where they are issued and used. Issuer profitability favours the US model; user friction is highest where stablecoins are treated as FX. For how issuers turn reserves into revenue, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">our explainer on stablecoin issuer economics</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>16 October 2026:</b> MAS consultation on Singapore's stablecoin legislation closes.</li>
<li><b>Second half of 2026:</b> HSBC's planned Hong Kong dollar stablecoin launch under its new licence.</li>
<li><b>End of 2026:</b> Bank of England aims to finalise its Code of Practice for systemic stablecoin issuers.</li>
<li><b>1 January 2027:</b> South Korea's 20% tax on crypto income above 2.5 million won is scheduled to start.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027:</b> the GENIUS Act takes effect in the US if final rules have not triggered it earlier.</li>
<li><b>28 February 2027 and 25 October 2027:</b> the FCA's application deadline for the saving provision and the UK regime's go-live.</li>
</ul>

<p>The direction of travel is clear. By the end of 2027 most major financial centres will have a live issuer licence, and the question for USDT in particular will be how many of them it is willing to apply for. For a deeper look at the two coins that dominate supply, read <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">our USDT vs USDC comparison</a>.</p>

<p class="note">This overview summarises laws and proposals as of October 2026 and is not legal advice. Rules in several jurisdictions are still being finalised; firms should seek advice from qualified local counsel.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-regulation-by-country-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Why Sending $200 Home Still Costs About $13, and What&#x27;s Changing</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>Migrants sent $728.6B home in 2025 and the average cost is still 6.36%. Where the money leaks, why digital is cheaper, and how stablecoins change the maths.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Every month, millions of people do the same small ritual. Payday arrives, they open an app or walk to a counter, and they send part of what they earned to someone they love in another country. The amounts are small. The fees, added up, are enormous.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$728.6B</b><span>sent to low- and middle-income countries in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>6.36%</b><span>global average cost of sending money home, Q3 2025 (World Bank)</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>3%</b><span>the UN's target cost, still not met globally</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Where the money actually goes</h2>
<p>On a $200 transfer at the global average, roughly $12.70 never reaches the family. It disappears into three places:</p>
<ol>
  <li><b>The visible fee.</b> The flat charge on the receipt. This is the part providers compete on in their ads.</li>
  <li><b>The exchange-rate margin.</b> The gap between the rate you're given and the real market rate. It's often bigger than the fee, and it's rarely shown in plain numbers.</li>
  <li><b>The plumbing.</b> Correspondent banks, pre-funded accounts sitting idle in every country, compliance checks done three times over. You never see these costs, but they're baked into the first two.</li>
</ol>

<h2>Digital is already cheaper, but not cheap enough</h2>
<p>The data is clear on one thing: going digital helps. In the same World Bank data, fully digital services averaged about 4.59%, against 7.30% for traditional, cash-heavy ones. Some corridors are much better than the average. Sending to India through non-bank providers runs closer to 3.3% for a $200 transfer, thanks to fierce competition and fast domestic rails at the receiving end.</p>
<p>But "digital" mostly means the front end got nicer. Behind the app, money still moves through the same old network of banks that was designed for large, infrequent transfers between companies, not $200 sent every payday.</p>

<h2>India: the world's biggest receiver</h2>
<p>India received about $150.7 billion in 2025, more than any other country and roughly 39% of everything flowing into Asia and the Pacific. That number has more than doubled since 2016. Behind it are nurses in the Gulf, engineers in California, drivers in Toronto, students in Melbourne, and the families back in Kerala, Punjab, Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi who depend on them.</p>
<p>And here's the part the statistics don't capture: a large slice of that money isn't spent on "anything". It goes to specific things, on specific dates. School fees. Electricity. A loan instalment. Medicine. About three-quarters of remittances go to immediate household needs.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A remittance is rarely just money. It's a school fee, an electricity bill or a hospital deposit wearing a currency costume.</blockquote>

<h2>How stablecoins change the maths</h2>
<p>Stablecoins replace the slowest, most expensive middle stretch of the journey. Instead of a chain of banks and pre-funded accounts, value moves as a digital dollar that settles in seconds, any day of the week, for a tiny fraction of a cent. Genuine stablecoin payments reached about $390 billion in 2025, by McKinsey and Artemis's estimate, and Visa named remittances among the areas where stablecoins fit best.</p>
<p>That doesn't make the first and last mile free. Someone still has to convert local currency into a digital dollar at one end and back out at the other, under proper licences and with real compliance. But it means the remaining costs are honest ones, and there are fewer hands in the middle taking a slice.</p>

<h2>What to check before you send</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Compare the final amount received</b>, not the fee. That one number includes everything.</li>
  <li><b>Check the rate against the mid-market rate</b> you see on Google. The difference is a cost.</li>
  <li><b>Ask whether the money can go straight to the bill.</b> Paying the electricity company directly saves a second hop through someone's bank account, and removes the "did it arrive?" phone call.</li>
</ul>
<p>The 3% target was set years ago. It's still not met. Closing that gap will probably take new settlement rails and honest exchange-rate pricing, rather than another small cut to the visible fee.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Offline CBDC Payments: How Offline e-Rupee and Digital Euro Work</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>How offline CBDC payments work device to device, what the RBI is testing for the e-rupee, and how the offline digital euro handles privacy and double spending.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/offline-cbdc-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Picture a weekly haat in a hill block of Uttarakhand, where the nearest mobile tower sits behind a ridge and a UPI payment spins for a minute before failing. Cash still rules there, not out of habit but because it works without a network. Offline central bank digital currency is an attempt to copy that one property of cash into a phone or a card, and it turns out to be the hardest engineering problem in the whole CBDC project.</p>

<h2>Why central banks keep coming back to offline</h2>
<p>An online payment, whether UPI, a card or an online CBDC wallet, depends on a server confirming that the money exists and has not already been spent. Remove the network and that check disappears. Offline CBDC is the set of tricks that lets two devices settle a payment between themselves and trust the result.</p>
<p>Central banks rate the feature highly. A survey by the BIS Innovation Hub Nordic Centre for its <a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/othp64.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Polaris handbook on offline CBDC</a>, published in May 2023, found 49% of central banks saw offline payments with a retail CBDC as vital and another 49% saw them as advantageous. The reasons cited were resilience, inclusion, privacy and resemblance to cash. The same handbook warns that there is no one-size-fits-all design.</p>
<p>The appeal is easy to see in India. The RBI's own explanation of its February 2024 decision, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/finance/news/rbi-to-introduce-offline-digital-rupee-transactions-soon-governor-das-124020800381_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Business Standard</a>, was to enable transactions in areas with poor or limited internet connectivity, testing proximity and non-proximity solutions across hilly, rural and urban areas. The RBI's 2024-25 annual report presented offline capability as a highlight aimed at rural, disaster-hit and low-connectivity areas, which is also why it matters for digital cash in disaster relief.</p>

<h2>How a device-to-device payment works</h2>
<p>Strip away the branding and most offline designs follow the same five steps.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Load while online.</b> The user moves value from a bank account or online wallet into an offline store on the device. The European Central Bank's first <a href="https://ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/progress/html/ecb.deprp202406.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">digital euro progress report</a> describes pre-funding via the internet or at a designated ATM.</li>
<li><b>Hold value in protected hardware.</b> The balance lives in a secure element, a tamper-resistant chip similar to the one in a bank card or SIM, so the user cannot simply edit the number.</li>
<li><b>Pay by proximity.</b> Two devices talk directly, typically over NFC or Bluetooth. The sender's chip reduces its balance and signs a transfer; the receiver's chip checks the signature and increases its balance.</li>
<li><b>Keep the record local.</b> In the ECB design, transaction data stays on the two devices and is not sent to a central system.</li>
<li><b>Reconnect and reconcile.</b> When a device goes back online, it can refresh its keys, report counters and, for the receiver, move value back to an online account.</li>
</ol>
<p>Every serious design worries about step three. If a chip is cracked, a fraudster could pay the same tokens twice to two shopkeepers who have no way of knowing. As a <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/bis-offline-cbdc-polaris/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ledger Insights summary of Polaris</a> put it, double spending and counterfeiting are easier in the absence of online checks. That is why every offline design comes with limits.</p>

<h2>What the RBI is testing for the offline e-rupee</h2>
<p>India's thinking goes back to the RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&amp;ID=1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2022 concept note</a>, which called offline functionality important for inclusion and proposed to contain double-spending through technical measures and monetary limits on offline transactions. Since 2024, the pilot has tested several approaches. An RBI HaRBInger post, cited by <a href="https://upstox.com/news/personal-finance/latest-updates/upi-vs-digital-rupee-rbi-explores-offline-e-payments-using-bluetooth-and-nfc/article-200817/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Upstox in September 2026</a>, invites solutions that enable offline e-rupee transactions using Bluetooth and NFC. One approach uses NFC on merchant point-of-sale terminals; another works without internet but still needs telecom signal, which helps where mobile data is weak but voice and SMS work.</p>
<p>The RBI has not published offline limits specific to the e-rupee. It has, though, a template. Its <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12215" target="_blank" rel="noopener">framework for small-value offline digital payments</a>, which covers cards, wallets and mobile devices and was last updated in December 2024, caps offline payments at ₹500 per transaction and ₹2,000 outstanding per instrument, with UPI Lite at ₹1,000 and ₹5,000. Replenishing the limit requires an online transaction with additional authentication. It would be surprising if offline e-rupee ended up far from that range, at least at first.</p>
<p>There is also a link to programmability. The same February 2024 announcement that brought offline e-rupee brought programmable use cases, and the rural schemes where offline matters most are often the same ones where a state wants to fence money. We cover those in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/">programmable e-rupee use cases</a>.</p>

<h2>The ECB's offline digital euro: the privacy pitch</h2>
<p>Europe's offline design is built around privacy rather than connectivity. The euro area has good mobile coverage; what it has lacked is a digital payment that feels as private as a banknote. The ECB's progress report says that for offline payments only the two parties would know the personal transaction details, with no data shared with payment service providers, the Eurosystem or support providers. It calls this a cash-like level of privacy.</p>
<p>Politics has kept offline at the centre. The Council of the EU agreed its negotiating position in December 2025, backing a digital euro usable online and offline with a high degree of privacy, according to a <a href="https://www.lewissilkin.com/insights/2025/12/29/council-of-the-eu-agrees-position-on-the-digital-euro-102lz5q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lewis Silkin note</a>. Parliament's lead negotiator, Fernando Navarrete, had gone further in an October 2025 report, suggesting an offline-only digital euro unless the private sector failed to deliver a pan-European payment solution. The ECB rejected that idea, with an adviser arguing that offline alone would not let consumers shop online or send money over distance, Cyprus Mail reported. Parliament's committee position of June 2026 kept offline payments in the design and made them free of fees.</p>
<p>The ECB is candid that the hardware question is open. Offline phone payments depend on access to the NFC antenna and the secure element, which on some phones is controlled by the handset maker, and the progress report says that access depends on the legislation. The ECB is also studying cards with no battery that work through a bridge device. For the broader euro project, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">the digital euro explained</a>.</p>

<h2>China's e-CNY: "touch one touch" since 2020</h2>
<p>China has run offline e-CNY payments in public for longer than anyone. In a December 2020 Suzhou pilot, a group of recipients of 200 yuan red envelopes could test an offline wallet and make "dual offline" payments, where neither side has a connection, by tapping phones together, according to <a href="https://www.nfcw.com/?p=69536" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFCW</a>. Only designated phone models could take part.</p>
<p>Hardware came next. A 2021 <a href="https://chinadailyhk.com/article/238110" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily report</a> described e-CNY hardware wallets from a Shenzhen cash-machine maker in three forms, a display card, a shaped wallet and a SIM-based film, which pay by tapping a terminal. The People's Bank of China's white paper said these rely on security chips and can be built into IC cards, phones, wearables and other devices. That breadth matters because, as UCL's Geoffrey Goodell notes in a paper on hardware wallets, the global median smartphone cost US$92.59 in 2024, about 11% of global median income per person. A card is cheaper than a phone. We cover the wider programme in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/china-e-cny-digital-yuan/">China's e-CNY</a>.</p>

<h2>The three designs side by side</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>Offline e-rupee (India)</th><th>Offline digital euro</th><th>Offline e-CNY (China)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Status</td><td>In pilot since 2024</td><td>Designed; pilot from 2027, possible issuance 2029</td><td>Tested in public since 2020</td></tr>
<tr><td>Main purpose</td><td>Connectivity and inclusion</td><td>Cash-like privacy and resilience</td><td>Resilience and coverage of elderly and remote users</td></tr>
<tr><td>Technology</td><td>Bluetooth, NFC, POS-based and telecom-assisted options</td><td>Secure element on phones; battery-free cards via bridge device</td><td>NFC phone-to-phone; hardware card and SIM wallets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Data visibility</td><td>Not yet published for offline mode</td><td>Only the two parties see personal details</td><td>Not specified publicly</td></tr>
<tr><td>Funding</td><td>From bank-linked e-rupee wallet</td><td>Online pre-funding or designated ATM</td><td>From e-CNY wallet</td></tr>
<tr><td>Limits</td><td>Not published; RBI offline framework uses ₹500 and ₹2,000 for other instruments</td><td>Offline limits not yet fixed</td><td>Not specified publicly</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: why the limits are low</h2>
<p>Suppose an offline e-rupee wallet launched with the same ceiling the RBI uses for other offline instruments: ₹2,000 held offline and ₹500 per payment. These numbers are an assumption for illustration, not an RBI rule for CBDC.</p>
<ul>
<li>A farm worker loads ₹2,000 into the offline wallet before leaving town. At the haat he pays ₹40 for tea, ₹180 for vegetables and ₹60 for a shared jeep. His chip now shows ₹1,720. Nothing has touched a server.</li>
<li>The vegetable seller takes 14 such payments during the day, averaging about ₹120, so she ends the day with roughly ₹1,680 received offline. If her own offline cap is also ₹2,000, she must reconnect and sweep funds to an online wallet before she can take much more.</li>
<li>Now the attack. If someone cracks a chip and spends its ₹2,000 twice, the most a single device can create is ₹2,000 of bad money. Even an industrial fraud on 100,000 devices would cap out at ₹20 crore (100,000 × ₹2,000), detectable when receivers reconnect.</li>
</ul>
<p>That is the trade. Each extra rupee of offline limit makes the wallet more useful and the worst case more expensive. It also explains why designers want devices to reconnect regularly: counters can be checked, compromised keys revoked, and bad tokens traced to the device that minted them. A design that lets a device stay offline for weeks with a large balance is a design that accepts a bigger fraud budget.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Offline CBDC is cash with a fraud budget. The size of that budget is a policy choice, not a technical detail.</blockquote>

<h2>Privacy and double-spend controls pull against each other</h2>
<p>Here is the uncomfortable part. The strongest defence against double spending is to see every transaction eventually, which is how online systems work. The strongest privacy is to see none. Offline designs sit somewhere in the middle, and where they sit is a choice.</p>
<p>The Polaris research found that 44% of central banks believe offline CBDC should offer more privacy than online. The ECB has gone furthest by saying offline payment details stay between the two parties. India's concept note frames privacy as "managed anonymity", with small payments more private than large ones, which fits naturally with low offline caps: if each offline payment is small, more anonymity is easier to defend. For the full argument, read <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">our piece on the CBDC privacy debate</a>.</p>
<p>Liability is the other quiet question. If a merchant accepts a token from a cracked device, who eats the loss: the merchant, the wallet provider, or the central bank? Europe has flagged offline liability as one of the issues the ECB must settle before launch. Users deserve a clear answer in plain language before they are asked to trust an offline wallet with real money.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> EU trilogue negotiations on the digital euro regulation aim to conclude by the end of the year. The final text will set how offline holding limits are fixed and whether phone makers must open NFC and secure element access.</li>
<li><b>Second half of 2027:</b> the ECB's planned 12-month pilot, if the regulation is adopted in 2026, is the first chance to see offline digital euro payments with real users.</li>
<li><b>2026-27 in India:</b> the RBI plans to extend CBDC pilots to more DBT schemes and retail use cases. Watch whether offline limits for the e-rupee are published, and whether any state uses offline wallets in a scheme that reaches places UPI does not.</li>
<li><b>2029:</b> the ECB's target for a potential first issuance of the digital euro, assuming legislation is in place.</li>
</ul>
<p>We set the three currencies against each other in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny/">e-rupee vs digital euro vs e-CNY</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/offline-cbdc-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Paying the Government Online in India: Taxes, Fees and e-Challans</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/citizen-payments-taxes-fees-challans/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/citizen-payments-taxes-fees-challans/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 04 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>How Indians pay property tax, GST, utility bills and traffic e-challans online, why Rs 23,000 crore in fines sits unpaid, and what the data shows in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/citizen-payments-taxes-fees-challans.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 28 September 2026, two judges of the Supreme Court of India read out a number that most citizens never see on their phones: Rs 49,194.05 crore in traffic fines issued through e-challans across the country, of which only Rs 26,175.05 crore had been recovered. Roughly Rs 23,000 crore was simply sitting there, owed to the state and unpaid. The bench responded by ordering that vehicles with unpaid challans can be impounded and that their owners can be locked out of registration, fitness and licence services until they clear their dues.</p>

<p>That order is a useful lens on a part of payments that gets far less attention than remittances or stablecoins: the money citizens send to their own government. Property tax, water charges, GST, court fees, passport fees, traffic fines. India has built excellent rails for collecting this money. What it has not fully built is the habit, or the enforcement, that makes people use them. This piece looks at where digital government collections work, where they leak, and why the hardest problem is no longer the payment button.</p>

<h2>The collection gap that technology did not close</h2>

<p>The e-challan system is a triumph of digitisation on the issuing side. Cameras and handheld devices generate fines, the record lands on the national Parivahan back end, and a vehicle owner can pay with UPI, a card or net banking in under a minute. Yet according to the figures placed before the court and reported by <a href="https://www.livelaw.in/top-stories/impound-vehicles-with-unpaid-e-challans-freeze-online-services-supreme-court-orders-notes-over-23000-crore-traffic-fines-pending-552686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LiveLaw</a>, the recovery rate works out to about 53%. Almost half the value of fines issued has not come in.</p>

<p>Even government departments are part of the problem. A report summarised by <a href="https://www.angelone.in/news/market-updates/india-s-e-challans-amount-to-49-194-crore-surpassing-highway-project-costs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angel One</a> noted that government vehicles in Karnataka had racked up 82,208 traffic violations over three and a half years, with Rs 19.24 crore in unpaid fines, and 3,366 of those violations involved police vehicles. When the state does not pay the state, it is hard to argue that the missing ingredient is a better checkout page.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>Rs 49,194cr</b><span>e-challan value recoverable nationwide (Sep 2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Rs 26,175cr</b><span>actually recovered</span></div><div class="stat"><b>~Rs 23,000cr</b><span>still pending</span></div></div>

<p>Our view: the court has correctly identified that friction at the point of payment is not the bottleneck. The bottleneck is the absence of consequence. Digital payment rails reduce the cost of complying, but they do nothing about the cost of not complying. The September order changes that second number by tying fines to services people actually need, such as renewing a registration certificate or transferring ownership.</p>

<h2>What the order actually requires</h2>

<p>The directions are worth listing because they turn a payments question into an identity and records question. The court asked authorities to impound vehicles found with unpaid challans during random checks, freeze vehicle-related online services until dues are cleared, refuse fitness and pollution certificates, block ownership transfers by flagging vehicles on the Parivahan portal, and suspend licences for repeat violators. It also asked the transport ministry to publish a monthly public dashboard under Section 136A of the Motor Vehicles Act and to examine a national road safety system linking VAHAN, SARATHI, e-Challan and accident databases.</p>

<p>Notice what this does. It converts an unsecured fine into something closer to a lien on a digital record. The same logic is already familiar from FASTag, where a toll is deducted before the boom barrier lifts. It is also the logic that makes property tax collections in well-run cities so high: you cannot sell or mortgage a flat cleanly with arrears on the municipal record.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A payment rail lowers the cost of paying. Only a linked record raises the cost of not paying.</blockquote>

<h2>Property tax: the quiet success story</h2>

<p>If traffic fines show the gap, municipal property tax shows how far digital collection can go when the habit is in place. Pune Municipal Corporation collected Rs 1,395.86 crore in the first quarter of 2026-27 from 7,40,282 property owners, up from Rs 1,292.94 crore a year earlier, according to <a href="https://www.punekarnews.in/?p=239077" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Punekar News</a>. Of that, Rs 927.02 crore came online from 5,41,500 owners. Cheques and demand drafts brought Rs 354.46 crore and cash Rs 114.38 crore.</p>

<p>Navi Mumbai tells a similar story. Its civic body recorded Rs 876 crore in property tax in 2025-26, its highest ever, from 2,25,576 property owners, with about 61% paying online, as reported by the <a href="https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/navi-mumbai-news-nmmc-records-876-crore-property-tax-collection-in-fy26-highest-ever-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Free Press Journal</a>. It also ran an amnesty in March that waived half of late payment penalties, which tells you something about what moves the laggards: a deadline and a discount, not a new app.</p>

<h3>Worked example: who still pays by cheque</h3>

<p>The Pune numbers let us do a small piece of arithmetic that the headline figures hide. Online, Rs 927.02 crore came from 5,41,500 owners, an average of about Rs 17,100 per owner. Offline, the remaining 1,98,782 owners paid Rs 468.84 crore through cheques, drafts and cash, an average of roughly Rs 23,600 each.</p>

<p>So by count, about 73% of Pune's paying owners went digital in the quarter. By value, only about 66% of rupees did. The offline group pays larger bills on average, which points to commercial properties, institutions and older owners writing cheques for big assessments. That matters for any city chasing a "100% digital" target. The last third of value is concentrated in a smaller group with larger, often more complicated bills, and it will not move because someone adds another QR code to the counter. It moves when the assessment, the dispute process and the receipt are all online too.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Payment type</th><th>Main rail or portal</th><th>Latest data point</th><th>Main friction</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Traffic fines</td><td>Parivahan e-Challan; UPI, cards, net banking</td><td>53% of Rs 49,194cr recovered (Sep 2026)</td><td>No consequence for non-payment, until the court order</td></tr>
<tr><td>Property tax</td><td>City portals; Bharat Connect municipal billers</td><td>Pune: Rs 927cr of Rs 1,396cr online in Q1 2026-27</td><td>Large commercial bills, disputes, assessment errors</td></tr>
<tr><td>GST</td><td>GST portal challan (PMT-06); net banking, NEFT/RTGS, cards in some states</td><td>Rs 2.04 lakh crore gross, Sep 2026</td><td>Card availability and charges vary by state</td></tr>
<tr><td>Central non-tax fees</td><td>Bharatkosh (Non-Tax Receipt Portal)</td><td>Single point for fees and fines across civil ministries</td><td>Discoverability; many citizens do not know it exists</td></tr>
<tr><td>UK comparison</td><td>GOV.UK Pay</td><td>Nearly GBP 10bn lifetime, ~1,800 services</td><td>Uneven local authority uptake (41%)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>GST: the biggest bill most citizens never see</h2>

<p>For businesses, the largest regular payment to government is GST, and here the digital share is effectively total because the system was built online from day one. Gross GST collections reached Rs 2,03,521 crore in September 2026, up 14.7% on a year earlier, with net collections after refunds of Rs 1,76,520 crore, according to provisional figures summarised by <a href="https://a2ztaxcorp.net/gst-revenue-crosses-%E2%82%B92-lakh-crore-again-in-september-2026-gross-collections-rise-14-7-to-%E2%82%B92-04-lakh-crore-net-revenue-jumps-18-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A2Z Taxcorp</a>. For April to September, gross collections were Rs 12.46 lakh crore, up 11.6%.</p>

<p>The interesting payments detail is on the edges. Businesses generate a challan on the portal and pay through net banking, NEFT or RTGS, or over the counter for small amounts. From January 2024, GSTN began allowing credit and debit card payments in 10 states and union territories, with any transaction charges added on top of the tax, as noted in a <a href="https://taxo.online/latest-news/05-01-2024-gst-liability-can-now-be-paid-through-credit-card-or-debit-card-gstn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Taxo summary of the GSTN advisory</a>. For a small trader, that charge question is real. A card fee of even one or two percent on a quarterly liability is money that never reaches either the business or the exchequer. Readers working out which method suits them should check current charges with their bank and a tax adviser.</p>

<h2>Bharat Connect and the long tail of municipal billers</h2>

<p>The other quiet piece of plumbing is <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect</a>, the interoperable bill payment system formerly known as BBPS. Its public category list shows 111 municipal tax billers, 68 water billers and 98 electricity billers, alongside a striking 20,410 education fee billers, according to the <a href="https://www.bharat-connect.com/categories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bharat Connect category page</a>. There is no separate category for traffic challans.</p>

<p>Read that list as a coverage map. India has thousands of urban and rural local bodies. Only a little over a hundred appear as municipal tax billers on the shared network. That means most local taxes are still paid through each body's own portal, a counter, or a payment gateway the city contracted separately. Every one of those is a separate integration, a separate receipt format and a separate reconciliation job for a municipal accounts officer. Getting more local bodies onto a shared biller network would do more for citizen convenience than any number of new apps, because it lets a resident pay from whichever bank or <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> app they already use.</p>

<p>At the central level, the equivalent is Bharatkosh, the Non-Tax Receipt Portal run by the Controller General of Accounts. The <a href="https://cga.gov.in/Content/Print/Bharatkosh.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CGA describes it</a> as a single online point for depositing fees, fines and other payments into the government account across civil ministries. It is a sensible design that few citizens have heard of.</p>

<h2>What the UK learned running one payment layer for government</h2>

<p>Britain offers a useful benchmark because it chose a shared platform early. GOV.UK Pay turned ten in September 2026 and has processed nearly GBP 10 billion over its life, according to the <a href="https://gds.blog.gov.uk/2026/09/02/gov-uk-pay-at-10-how-it-started-and-how-its-going/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Government Digital Service</a>. The first billion took about four years. It now handles that much in roughly five months. Almost 1,800 services across more than 600 organisations use it, including central departments, the NHS and police forces.</p>

<p>The weak spot looks familiar. Only 157 UK local authorities, 41% of the total, use the platform. Councils had their own contracts, their own gateways and their own reasons for staying put. India's version of this problem is larger by an order of magnitude, but the lesson transfers: a shared rail spreads fastest where the centre can mandate it, and slowest at the local level, where most citizen bills actually originate.</p>

<h2>Why linking records beats building apps</h2>

<p>There is a pattern across all of these examples. Collection rates rise when the payment is tied to something the citizen needs from the state. FASTag works because the barrier will not lift. Property tax works in cities that block transfers with arrears. GST works because input tax credit depends on it. The e-challan system lagged because, until September 2026, an unpaid fine had almost no effect on daily life.</p>

<p>This is also where the risks sit. Linking payment status to licences, registrations and utility connections gives the state a lot of leverage over individuals, and it amplifies the damage from bad data. A wrongly issued challan, a camera error or a fine attached to a sold vehicle becomes a blocked service. The court's direction for a monthly public dashboard is welcome. Equally important is a fast, online dispute channel with deadlines, so that enforcement and correction move at the same speed. The <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">India Stack</a> approach works best when the grievance layer is as well built as the payment layer.</p>

<p>The same rails that collect money also carry it outwards, through <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">direct benefit transfers</a>. A government that can both pay and collect through linked digital records can, in principle, net one against the other. That is a powerful idea and one that deserves careful public debate before anyone tries it.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Late October 2026:</b> the transport ministry's first steps on the monthly e-challan dashboard ordered by the Supreme Court on 28 September. The key metric is whether the recovery rate climbs from 53%.</li>
<li><b>Early November 2026:</b> October GST figures. Watch whether gross collections hold above Rs 2 lakh crore for a fourth straight month.</li>
<li><b>Through Q3 2026-27:</b> growth in Bharat Connect's municipal tax biller count from its current 111. Every new local body on the network is one less standalone portal.</li>
<li><b>31 March 2027:</b> the financial year-end rush for property tax, when cities like Pune and Navi Mumbai typically run penalty waivers. Compare their online share against this year's 61% to 66%.</li>
</ul>

<p>Citizens paying government is the least glamorous corner of payments, and also the one where the rails are most clearly ahead of the institutions. For a wider view of how other countries handle the outgoing side, see our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/g2p-payments-around-the-world/">government-to-person payments</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/citizen-payments-taxes-fees-challans.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Crypto Cards Abroad: A Practical Guide for Travellers and Freelancers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>A practical, product-neutral guide for travellers and dollar-paid freelancers using stablecoin cards: FX, ATMs, limits, tax records and the common pitfalls.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Picture a freelance designer in Hanoi paid in dollar stablecoins by a client in Toronto, or a software tester spending a month in Lisbon on a balance earned from American startups. For people like them, a stablecoin card looks like the obvious bridge: income arrives in digital dollars, and the card turns it into dong or euros at the till. It can work well. It can also leak money in small, avoidable ways. This guide walks through the parts that matter, without pointing you to any particular product.</p>

<h2>First, understand what you are actually holding</h2>
<p>A stablecoin card is a Visa or Mastercard debit or prepaid card whose balance is funded from stablecoins, usually USDC or USDT. If you want the full mechanics, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">how crypto cards work</a> covers issuers and settlement. For travellers, three questions come first:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Who holds the coins?</b> A custodial provider, or your own wallet? If the provider freezes your account while you are abroad, a backup card from a bank becomes essential.</li>
<li><b>Which coin, on which blockchain?</b> Sending USDC on the wrong network to a top-up address is one of the most common and least recoverable mistakes.</li>
<li><b>Where is the card licensed?</b> Programmes are issued under specific jurisdictions, and some restrict use or onboarding by country of residence.</li>
</ul>
<p>The product category is growing fast. Visa reported more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programmes live in its fiscal second quarter of 2026, according to <a href="https://theblock.co/news/business/2026-09-08-visa-stablecoin-settlement-tops-20-billion-annualized-run-rate-up-more-than-15x-year-over-year-413749" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. More choice is good, but it also means terms vary a lot from one card to the next.</p>

<h2>The FX decision happens at the terminal</h2>
<p>When you pay abroad in local currency, there are usually two conversions: stablecoin to dollars (often close to one to one) and dollars to the local currency. The second one is where most of the cost sits. Some programmes use the card network's daily rate plus a markup; others apply their own rate.</p>
<p>The bigger trap is dynamic currency conversion, when a terminal or ATM offers to charge you in your home currency instead of the local one. It sounds helpful. In practice the merchant's bank sets the rate, and it is rarely better than the one your card would use. The European Union has required providers offering this service to disclose the total charge since April 2020, and since April 2021 card issuers must send electronic reminders of their currency conversion charges, as <a href="https://www.fxcintel.com/research/analysis/complying-with-transparency-in-cross-border-card-markups" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXC Intelligence</a> summarised. Outside the EU, disclosure can be thinner.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">When a machine asks whether you want to pay in dollars or local currency, local currency is almost always the cheaper answer.</blockquote>

<h2>ATMs, limits and the cash problem</h2>
<p>Cash withdrawals are where crypto cards differ most. Some include a small free monthly allowance, others charge a percentage on every withdrawal, and the local ATM operator may add its own fee on top. Before a trip, check:</p>
<ul>
<li>the daily and monthly ATM limits, which are often lower than spending limits;</li>
<li>whether the card supports contactless withdrawals and chip and PIN in the country you are visiting;</li>
<li>how the card handles hotel and car rental pre-authorisations, which can lock up a slice of your balance for days.</li>
</ul>
<p>Withdraw larger amounts less often if fees are per transaction, and keep a second card on a different network. A freelancer whose only card is suspended during a compliance review in another country has very few quick options.</p>

<h2>Getting paid in stablecoins: the freelancer's side</h2>
<p>For remote workers, the appeal is receiving dollar value from clients without waiting days for a wire. If you are comparing that with traditional transfers, our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money across borders</a> shows how much fees and FX margins add up on bank routes.</p>
<p>A few habits keep it clean:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Invoice in a fiat amount.</b> State the dollar value and the stablecoin and network you accept, so there is no argument about the rate on the day.</li>
<li><b>Keep a client-facing wallet address separate</b> from the wallet that funds your card.</li>
<li><b>Hold a working float, not your savings,</b> on the card. A custodial balance is not the same as a bank deposit.</li>
</ol>

<h2>Tax records: the part people skip</h2>
<p>Income received in stablecoins is still income. Most tax authorities expect you to record its value in local currency on the day you received it. Then, depending on where you live, converting or spending crypto may itself count as a disposal.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>2025</b><span>first tax year of US Form 1099-DA</span></div><div class="stat"><b>2026</b><span>cost basis reported for newly acquired assets</span></div><div class="stat"><b>160+</b><span>stablecoin-linked Visa card programmes</span></div></div>
<p>In the United States, custodial brokers began issuing Form 1099-DA for tax year 2025, reporting gross proceeds from digital asset sales and exchanges. For assets acquired on or after 1 January 2026 and held at the same broker, cost basis is reported as well, according to <a href="https://www.creditkarma.com/tax/library/irs-forms/what-is-form-1099-da/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Karma's summary of the form</a>. Older holdings, or coins moved between platforms, still depend on your own records.</p>
<p>A simple spreadsheet works: date, amount received, fiat value, source, and later the date and value of each conversion. Export your card statements every month; some apps keep only a limited history.</p>

<h2>Pitfalls we see again and again</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Topping up on the wrong network.</b> Always send a small test amount first.</li>
<li><b>Holding volatile crypto as a spending balance.</b> A card funded with ether can turn a coffee into a taxable event and a budget into a guess.</li>
<li><b>Ignoring residency rules.</b> Moving countries can change whether your card remains available to you.</li>
<li><b>Single point of failure.</b> One card, one phone, one app. Carry a backup card and keep your recovery details offline.</li>
<li><b>Treating rewards as income.</b> Token rewards can be taxable and can lose value.</li>
</ul>

<h2>When a crypto card makes sense</h2>
<p>For someone already earning in stablecoins and spending in several currencies, a well-run card can remove a conversion step and a few days of waiting. For someone who earns in a local currency and travels twice a year, a low-markup bank card may be just as good with fewer moving parts. The honest answer is to compare the full route, from income to the coffee you buy, and pick the one with the fewest expensive hops.</p>
<p class="note">This guide is general information, not financial, legal or tax advice. Rules differ by country; check with a qualified adviser where you are tax resident.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Getting Paid From Abroad in India: RBI Export Rules, FIRA, GST 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/indian-exporters-payments-rules/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/indian-exporters-payments-rules/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How Indian exporters and freelancers get paid from abroad under RBI&#x27;s 2026 rules: 15-month realisation, FIRA, purpose codes, the new EDF, GST LUT and refunds.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/indian-exporters-payments-rules.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A backend developer in Indore sends her October invoice to a startup in Austin: $4,000, net 30. When the money lands, her bank will want a purpose code, her GST return will want proof that the payment arrived in foreign currency, and from this month the RBI wants a single new export form filed for all her software invoices. None of this is difficult. All of it is easy to get wrong, and the cost of getting it wrong is usually cash stuck with the tax department or a bank entry that never closes.</p>

<p>India sells a remarkable amount of services to the world. The <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63625" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI's survey of software and IT-enabled services exports</a>, released on 18 September 2026, put 2025-26 exports at $221.4 billion, up 8.2 percent. The United States took 54.1 percent and Europe 31.8 percent. And 91.7 percent was delivered off-site, which is to say from desks in Indian cities, by companies large and small and by a long tail of individual freelancers. The rules that govern how that money comes home changed on 1 October 2026. This guide walks through them in the order an exporter meets them.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$221.4B</b><span>India's software services exports, 2025-26</span></div><div class="stat"><b>9 months</b><span>to realise export proceeds (18 if invoiced in rupees)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>72.6%</b><span>of software exports invoiced in US dollars</span></div></div>

<h2>The new rulebook that started on 1 October</h2>

<p>For a decade, India's export payment rules lived in a 2015 Master Direction patched by well over a hundred circulars. In January 2026 the RBI replaced them with the Foreign Exchange Management (Export and Import of Goods and Services) Regulations, 2026 and accompanying Directions, effective 1 October 2026. According to an <a href="https://www.ey.com/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-in/alerts-hub/2026/01/rbi-issues-export-and-import-regulations-2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EY regulatory alert</a> and a <a href="https://webiis10.mondaq.com/india/international-trade-investment/1780898/rbi-issues-foreign-exchange-management-export-and-import-of-goods-and-services-regulations-2026-and-directions-on-export-and-import-of-goods-and-services" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mondaq summary</a>, the new framework supersedes the 2015 export and 2016 import Master Directions and 167 circulars. The changes that matter most to smaller exporters are these:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Realisation period.</b> Proceeds must be realised and repatriated within nine months, counted from the shipment date for goods and the invoice date for services. Exports invoiced in rupees get 12 months.</li>
<li><b>One form instead of several.</b> A single Export Declaration Form (EDF) replaces the old SOFTEX form for software and services. Software exporters can file one EDF covering all of a month's invoices, due within 30 days after month-end. Other service exporters may file on or before the date payment is received.</li>
<li><b>Small reductions on self-declaration.</b> For invoices up to Rs 10 lakh, banks may accept a reduction in the amount realised, for example a client's short payment, on the exporter's own declaration.</li>
<li><b>Set-off.</b> Goods export receivables can be set off against service import payables and the other way round.</li>
<li><b>A sharper penalty for chronic delay.</b> If proceeds stay unrealised more than a year past the due date, the exporter may ship only against full advance payment or an irrevocable letter of credit.</li>
<li><b>Bank conduct.</b> Banks must publish their policies and may not charge customers for delays caused by regulatory processes.</li>
</ul>

<p>The 15-month window itself predates October. A <a href="https://www.taxmann.com/post/blog/rbi-extends-the-time-period-for-realisation-of-full-export-from-9-to-15-months" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 November 2025 amendment</a> had already stretched realisation from nine months to fifteen and extended the deadline for shipping goods against an advance from one year to three. The 2026 regulations first kept the longer window, then a September 2026 amendment restored nine months from 1 October, with 12 months for rupee-invoiced exports. The rule has moved three times in a year, so check the RBI's current text before you plan around it.</p>

<h2>Step one: be paid through the right channel</h2>

<p>Export proceeds must arrive through an authorised dealer bank, in convertible foreign currency or in rupees where the RBI permits it. In practice exporters use one of four routes: a SWIFT wire straight into an Indian bank account; a foreign-currency collection account that receives local transfers abroad and remits to India; a regulated cross-border payment aggregator; or a card or wallet platform that ultimately pays out through an Indian bank. Each route must end with a bank credit that is tagged as export income and documented.</p>

<p>When you compare routes, compare four things, not just the headline fee. The exchange margin against the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> is usually the largest cost and the least visible. Fixed fees per transfer matter more on small invoices. Intermediary deductions on SWIFT wires can shave an unpredictable amount off the top, a problem we cover in our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a>. And the route must produce the right paperwork: an inward remittance advice with your name, the foreign remitter, the amount and the purpose code. A cheaper route that leaves you without that document is not cheaper once your GST refund stalls.</p>

<h2>Step two: get the purpose code right</h2>

<p>Every inward remittance is classified with an RBI purpose code. For services exporters the common ones, as listed in a <a href="https://www.skydo.com/rbi-purpose-codes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">purpose code directory</a>, include P0802 for software consulting and implementation, P0807 for off-site software exports, P0803 for data processing, P1006 for business and management consulting, P1007 for advertising and market research, and P1008 for research and development services. Pick the code that describes the work, not the size of the payment.</p>

<p>The most expensive mistake is letting a business receipt be coded as a personal remittance. It may still reach your account, but it will not count as an export of services, which can unravel GST zero-rating and leave you explaining a mismatch between your returns and your bank's reporting. If a client's payment arrives with the wrong code, ask your bank to correct it promptly rather than at year-end.</p>

<h2>Step three: the documents, and who issues them</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Document</th><th>Issued by</th><th>When</th><th>Why it matters</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Export invoice</td><td>You</td><td>Before or at delivery</td><td>Starts the 15-month clock for services; must show the foreign client and currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Letter of Undertaking (GST RFD-11)</td><td>You, on the GST portal</td><td>Once per financial year, before exporting</td><td>Lets you export without paying IGST upfront; valid to 31 March</td></tr>
<tr><td>Inward remittance advice (FIRA or e-FIRA; older term FIRC)</td><td>Your bank or payment provider</td><td>After each credit</td><td>Proof the money arrived in foreign exchange; supports GST refunds and audits</td></tr>
<tr><td>Export Declaration Form (EDF)</td><td>You, to bank, STPI, SEZ or Customs</td><td>Monthly for software, within 30 days of month-end</td><td>Creates the EDPMS entry the bank must later close against realisation</td></tr>
<tr><td>Realisation in EDPMS</td><td>Your bank</td><td>When funds are matched to the EDF</td><td>Closes the export; open entries past the deadline trigger restrictions</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Keep all of it. A <a href="https://www.wisemonk.io/blogs/rbi-rules-for-indian-freelancers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guide for Indian freelancers</a> recommends retaining invoices, contracts, delivery emails, bank credit advices and remittance advices for at least six years and reconciling them monthly. That sounds like overkill until a refund officer asks about an invoice from three years ago.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The paperwork is not the obstacle. The obstacle is doing it in March for a year of invoices.</blockquote>

<h2>Step four: GST, the LUT and why it decides your cash flow</h2>

<p>Exports of services are zero-rated under GST, but only if five conditions in section 2(6) of the IGST Act are all met. As a <a href="https://thetaxcorp.in/article/export-of-services-under-gst-complete-guide-to-zero-rating-lut-and-refunds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GST explainer</a> sets out: the supplier is in India; the recipient is outside India; the place of supply is outside India; payment is received in convertible foreign exchange, or in rupees where the RBI allows it; and the two parties are not merely establishments of the same entity. An Indian subsidiary billing its foreign parent counts as a separate person, but a branch billing its own head office does not.</p>

<p>If you are GST-registered you then have a choice. File a Letter of Undertaking and invoice without tax, or pay 18 percent IGST on each export invoice and claim it back. According to an <a href="https://www.incorpx.io/blog/software-export-gst-firc-rbi-compliance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">export compliance guide</a>, LUT approval is usually immediate or takes a day or two, while IGST refunds nominally target 60 days and in practice often take 45 to 90. One trap catches many consultants: if your service falls under the place-of-supply rule for intermediaries, the place of supply may be in India, and zero-rating may not apply at all. That is a question for a qualified tax adviser.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one developer, one quarter</h2>

<p>Return to the Indore developer. She bills $4,000 a month and her client pays 30 days after invoice. We use the rupee's 9 October 2026 close of 96.73 for illustration.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Rupee value per invoice:</b> $4,000 x 96.73 = Rs 3,86,920.</li>
<li><b>With an LUT on file:</b> she invoices without GST. Her bank credits about Rs 3,86,920, less the exchange margin and any fees of her chosen channel.</li>
<li><b>Without an LUT:</b> she must pay IGST at 18 percent, Rs 69,646 per invoice, from her own funds when she files her return, then wait for a refund. With three monthly invoices in the refund queue at a 90-day turnaround, about Rs 2.09 lakh of her money sits with the government at any moment.</li>
<li><b>Realisation deadline:</b> an invoice dated 15 October 2026 must be realised by 15 January 2028. Had she invoiced in rupees, the deadline would be 15 April 2028.</li>
<li><b>EDF deadline:</b> her October software invoices go on one EDF due by 30 November 2026.</li>
<li><b>If the client short-pays by $150</b> on a disputed sprint, the reduction is far below the Rs 10 lakh self-declaration threshold, so her bank can close the entry on her declaration.</li>
</ol>

<p>The difference between steps two and three is pure working capital. For a solo exporter, Rs 2 lakh tied up in a refund queue is often a month of rent and living costs. Filing the LUT in April each year is the highest-return ten minutes in her calendar.</p>

<h2>Currency choice and the October hedging rules</h2>

<p>The same RBI survey shows that 72.6 percent of India's software exports were invoiced in dollars, 9.6 percent in euros, 6.3 percent in rupees and 6.0 percent in sterling. The new 18-month window for rupee invoices is a nudge toward the rupee, but most foreign clients will still prefer their own currency.</p>

<p>Exporters who hedge should note the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63783" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI's 10 October 2026 measures</a>. The limit for hedging without documenting the exposure fell from $100 million to $5 million, and cancelled contracts can no longer be rebooked. The new 20 percent reserve applies to contracts where the customer buys foreign currency, so an exporter selling dollars forward is not directly affected. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/">FX risk for small businesses</a> works through hedging choices with rupee numbers.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>30 November 2026:</b> the first monthly EDF deadline for software exporters' October invoices under the new regime. Expect banks and STPI centres to iron out filing glitches.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> banks must publish their export-import policies and standard procedures under the new Directions. Read your bank's version; it tells you what documents it will actually ask for.</li>
<li><b>Rupee hedging costs:</b> how banks implement the October undertaking requirement and the rebooking ban for exporters with forward books.</li>
<li><b>31 March 2027:</b> every LUT filed for 2026-27 expires. File the 2027-28 undertaking before your first April invoice.</li>
<li><b>September 2027:</b> the RBI's next annual software exports survey will show whether rupee invoicing moved off its 6.3 percent share.</li>
</ul>

<p>For the wider picture of how money moves into and out of India, see our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules in 2026</a> and to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments</a>. This article explains rules in general terms; it is not tax or legal advice, and exporters should confirm their position with a chartered accountant or their bank.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/indian-exporters-payments-rules.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Bills Are the Real Remittance: Paying Household Bills From Abroad</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>Most money sent home ends up paying a bill. Why paying electricity, school or insurance bills directly from abroad can be faster and safer than sending cash.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bills-are-the-real-remittance.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Ask anyone who sends money home what it's for, and you'll rarely hear "general expenses." You'll hear: Amma's electricity bill. My brother's college fees. Papa's insurance premium is due on the 10th. The money already has a name before it leaves.</p>

<h2>The hidden second journey</h2>
<p>Today, most of that money takes two journeys. First it crosses a border into someone's bank account. Then, a few days later, that person has to log in, find the biller, remember the account number and pay it. Sometimes they do it the same day. Sometimes the bank is slow, the parent isn't comfortable with apps, or the money gets used for something more urgent and the bill goes overdue.</p>
<p>Every extra hop is a chance for something to go wrong, and an extra phone call from abroad asking, "Did you pay it?"</p>

<h2>What families actually pay for</h2>
<p>Research on remittances keeps finding the same pattern: about three-quarters of the money goes to immediate household needs. In practice that means a small, very predictable list:</p>
<div class="chips">
  <span>Electricity</span><span>Water</span><span>Gas</span><span>Mobile &amp; broadband</span><span>School &amp; college fees</span><span>Insurance premiums</span><span>Loan EMIs</span><span>Property &amp; municipal tax</span><span>Rent</span><span>Medical bills</span>
</div>
<p>These aren't random transfers. They're recurring obligations, the same ones, every month, often on the same date. That makes them perfect for a better system.</p>

<h2>Why paying the bill directly is better</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>It arrives where it's meant to.</b> The biller gets paid, full stop. No one has to forward it.</li>
  <li><b>It's on time.</b> No late fees, no disconnection notices, no stress for parents who don't do online banking.</li>
  <li><b>It's proof.</b> A receipt from the biller is better than "I sent it" on a group chat.</li>
  <li><b>It's dignity.</b> Many older parents feel awkward asking for money. A paid bill just shows up as paid.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">Money is an emotion. A paid bill says "I'm looking after you" in a way a bank transfer never quite does.</blockquote>

<h2>Countries are already building for this</h2>
<p>India's Bharat Connect network has allowed Non-Resident Indians to pay Indian bills directly since 2022, covering things like utilities, school fees, municipal taxes and insurance. Banks and fintechs in the Gulf, the UK and Canada have plugged into it. We cover how that works in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect guide</a>. Global bill-payment networks reach tens of thousands of billers in other countries too, from mobile top-ups in Kenya to electricity in the Philippines.</p>
<p>Coverage is still patchy, though. Each service supports a different set of countries and billers, and exchange-rate margins on the cross-border leg vary widely.</p>

<h2>Why the framing matters</h2>
<p>Statistics usually count remittances as transfers between people. Seen from the household's side, much of that money behaves more like a standing order: rent, school, power, medicine, a parent's phone plan, due on predictable dates. Measuring it that way would make it easier to see where delays and late fees actually hurt.</p>
<p>It also changes what a good service looks like. The useful questions are whether the biller was paid on time, what exchange rate was applied, and whether the family got a receipt they can check. Those are worth asking of any provider, old or new.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bills-are-the-real-remittance.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>SWIFT in 2026: ISO 20022, a Blockchain Ledger and the Last-Mile Gap</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>SWIFT finished its ISO 20022 cutover, is building a blockchain ledger with 30+ banks and gets 90% of payments to banks in an hour. The last mile still lags.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/swift-iso-20022-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">For a decade, every fintech pitch deck had a slide that said SWIFT is slow. The network's own data now tells a more awkward story: most payments cross borders in under an hour, and the delay sits at the end of the chain, inside domestic banks. That reframing explains almost everything SWIFT has done since, from retiring its old message formats to experimenting with a shared ledger.</p>

<h2>What SWIFT is, and what it is not</h2>
<p>SWIFT does not move money. It is a messaging cooperative that more than 11,500 financial institutions use to tell each other where money should go. The money itself moves across correspondent accounts that banks hold with one another. On an average day the network carries over 53 million FIN messages, covering payments, securities and trade instructions.</p>
<p>It is also owned by its members, which shapes its incentives. SWIFT earns fees on messages, so it has every reason to keep banks on its network rather than see them drift to rival systems, and its member banks have a say in how fast change arrives. That cooperative structure helps explain why upgrades take years and why, once agreed, they tend to stick across the whole industry.</p>
<p>That distinction matters because it shapes what SWIFT can fix. It can standardise messages, track payments and set service rules for its members. It cannot force a bank in Lagos to credit a customer's account faster, and it cannot make nostro accounts cheaper to fund. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> covers that plumbing in detail.</p>

<h2>The speed numbers, read carefully</h2>
<p>In October 2024 <a href="https://www.swift.com/de/node/309840" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SWIFT reported</a> that 90% of cross-border payments on its network reached the destination bank within an hour. Speeds into the euro area hit 92%, the Middle East 88% and Africa 87%. Measured against the G20 goal of settling 75% of cross-border payments within an hour by 2027, SWIFT said it was above target for all but two of its 40 largest country routes.</p>
<p>The catch is in the same release. Only 43% of payments reached the end customer's account within an hour. The bottleneck is the receiving bank: batch processing, manual compliance reviews, cut-off times and weekends. A worker in Riyadh might see the money leave in minutes while the family in Dhaka waits until the next business day.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>90%</b><span>reach destination bank within 1 hour</span></div><div class="stat"><b>43%</b><span>reach the customer within 1 hour</span></div><div class="stat"><b>53M+</b><span>FIN messages per day</span></div></div>

<p>The Financial Stability Board's own measurement is harsher. Its 2025 progress report found that only about 35% of cross-border payments met the one-hour goal globally and concluded that satisfactory improvement by 2027 was unlikely, as <a href="https://thepaypers.com/payments/explainers/understanding-the-g20-cross-border-payments-targets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Paypers summarised</a>. The two figures measure different things, and the gap between them is the last mile.</p>

<h2>ISO 20022: the end of MT</h2>
<p>On 22 November 2025, the coexistence period for cross-border payments ended and SWIFT retired the old MT103 and MT202 instructions in favour of ISO 20022 messages, according to <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2025/11/21/swifts-iso-20022-cutover-the-end-of-mt-and-a-20-year-promise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert</a>. Coexistence had begun in March 2023 after an earlier delay. In the United States, the Federal Reserve moved Fedwire Funds to ISO 20022 in July 2025.</p>
<p>Why should anyone outside a bank operations team care? Because the old MT format was a fixed set of short text fields. Names were truncated, addresses were stuffed into free text, and the purpose of a payment often vanished along the way. ISO 20022 carries rich, structured data: full party details, remittance information, purpose codes. That makes sanctions screening more accurate and reduces the false positives that hold payments in compliance queues, which is exactly where the last-mile delay lives.</p>
<p>The migration is not fully done. Translation tools let lagging banks keep running MT internally, and critics argue those converters strip out the structured data that was the point. The next deadline is November 2026, when unstructured postal addresses stop being accepted. Banks have to send structured or hybrid addresses, and the ones that relied on converters will feel it.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">SWIFT's speed problem moved from the network to the receiving bank. Its strategy is to chase it there.</blockquote>

<h2>A blockchain ledger, from the incumbent</h2>
<p>At Sibos in September 2025, SWIFT announced it would add a blockchain-based shared ledger to its infrastructure, starting with real-time, round-the-clock cross-border payments. Consensys built the conceptual prototype, and more than 30 institutions, including Santander, Bank of America, BNP Paribas and HSBC, signed up to give feedback and help implement it, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/372706/swift-blockchain-ledger-consensys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>.</p>
<p>The ledger is designed to record transactions between banks, enforce rules through smart contracts and handle tokenised value while staying interoperable with existing systems. No go-live date has been published. Read plainly, it is a defensive move. If banks start settling with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">stablecoins</a> or tokenised deposits on public networks, SWIFT wants to be the trusted layer that connects those networks, rather than the legacy system they route around.</p>

<h2>Retail payments get their own rulebook</h2>
<p>The other notable 2026 change is aimed at consumers. In March 2026 <a href="https://www.swift.com/about-us/media-centre/press-releases/swift-accelerates-transformation-consumer-payments-banks-roll-out-new-framework-retail-transactions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SWIFT launched a retail framework</a> under which participating banks commit to fees known upfront, full value delivered to the recipient and the fastest available speed. More than 25 banks were scheduled to go live by the end of June across corridors including India, Bangladesh, China, the UK, the US and Canada, with over 50 banks supporting the scheme.</p>
<p>Full value delivery is the quiet headline. For decades, an intermediary bank could deduct a fee in transit, so a student's tuition payment arrived short and nobody could say why. A rule that bans that, if enforced, removes one of the oldest complaints in cross-border payments.</p>

<h2>What to watch through 2027</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>The customer-credit number.</b> If the 43% figure climbs toward the bank-to-bank 90%, the last-mile problem is being solved. If it stalls, expect regulators to lean on receiving banks.</li>
<li><b>Ledger pilots.</b> The first live transactions on the shared ledger, and which tokens it carries, will show whether SWIFT is serious about public-chain interoperability.</li>
<li><b>Structured data in practice.</b> November 2026 will reveal how many banks still depend on converters.</li>
</ul>
<p>SWIFT in 2026 is neither the dinosaur of fintech folklore nor a finished product. It is a network that fixed much of its own core and is now trying to drag its weakest members forward. Whether that is enough against <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/">blockchain-native rivals</a> depends less on SWIFT than on the banks at the far end of each payment.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/swift-iso-20022-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Payments in Africa 2026: Mobile Money, PAPSS and Stablecoins</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/payments-in-africa-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/payments-in-africa-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Africa runs $1.1T a year through mobile money, 36 instant payment systems and fast-growing stablecoin use. A data-led guide to how the continent pays in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/payments-in-africa-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A spare-parts dealer in Kano's Sabon Gari market buys gearboxes from a supplier in Guangzhou, pays a cousin's logistics firm in Cotonou, and collects from mechanics across northern Nigeria. Almost none of it touches a card network. Customers pay by bank transfer on Nigeria's instant system, the Benin leg runs on a mix of cash and mobile money, and the China invoice is increasingly settled in dollar stablecoins bought through an over-the-counter desk. That is how payments in Africa look in 2026: not one system, but a stack of mobile money, national instant rails, a pan-African settlement network still finding its feet, and a growing layer of dollar tokens filling the gaps the banks leave.</p>

<p>This guide works through each layer with the most recent data, and argues that the big change of the next few years is not more mobile money. It is the fight over who settles cross-border trade.</p>

<h2>Mobile money is still the base layer</h2>

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is the centre of the world's mobile money industry. The GSMA's <a href="https://www.gsma.com/sotir/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/The-State-of-the-Industry-Report-2025_English.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">State of the Industry Report 2025</a> counted 1.1 billion registered accounts in the region in 2024, up 19 percent and about half the global total of 2.1 billion. Transaction value in the region reached $1.1 trillion, around two-thirds of the global $1.68 trillion. There were 165 live services in Sub-Saharan Africa alone.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$1.1T</b><span>Mobile money value in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2024</span></div><div class="stat"><b>36</b><span>Live instant payment systems in Africa</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$205B</b><span>On-chain value received by the region, Jul 2024 to Jun 2025</span></div></div>

<p>Kenya remains the reference market. The <a href="https://www.centralbank.go.ke/national-payments-system/mobile-payments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Bank of Kenya</a> reported 95.31 million registered mobile money accounts in August 2026, a count inflated by the fact that many people hold several wallets and SIM cards, served by 563,605 active agents. Those agents handled 227.41 million cash-in and cash-out transactions worth KSh 761.13 billion in that single month. The agent network is the clue to what mobile money really is: a bridge between cash and digital, not a replacement for cash. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa explainer</a> covers how the model works.</p>

<p>Mobile money also carries cross-border flows. The GSMA put international remittances through mobile money at $34 billion in 2024, up 22 percent, across about 270 million transactions.</p>

<p>The averages show what kind of money this is. Globally, the GSMA counted around 108 billion mobile money transactions in 2024 worth $1.68 trillion, which works out to roughly $15.60 per transaction. In Kenya's August 2026 data, the average agent cash transaction was about KSh 3,350. These are airtime top-ups, school fees, market purchases and wages for day labourers. Mobile money is a high-volume, low-value system, and that is precisely why it reached people banks never served.</p>

<p>It also has limits that matter for the next phase. Wallet balances are usually capped, so they are poorly suited to business payments of any size. Interest on balances is rare. Cross-border use depends on bilateral deals between operators. And because most wallets are denominated in the local currency, they offer no protection when that currency falls, which is where the dollar layer described below comes in.</p>

<h2>Instant payment systems are catching up</h2>

<p>Alongside mobile money, central banks have built national instant payment systems that link banks, and increasingly wallets. The AfricaNenda Foundation's <a href="https://www.africanenda.org/en/siips-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SIIPS 2025 report</a> counts 36 live instant payment systems in Africa. Eleven now support cross-border transactions, up from six a year earlier, and ten support government payments to citizens. Nigeria's NIBSS Instant Payments, launched in 2011, is the continent's oldest large-scale example and is the rail most Nigerian businesses actually use day to day.</p>

<p>The policy direction is interoperability. A wallet user should be able to pay a bank account holder or a user of a competing wallet without friction. Where that has happened, volumes have grown quickly. Where mobile money operators and banks still run closed loops, users carry several wallets and move money between them through agents. For the global comparison, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payments around the world</a>.</p>

<h2>PAPSS and the intra-African trade problem</h2>

<p>Here is the core inefficiency. A Ghanaian importer paying a Kenyan exporter has traditionally had to buy US dollars, send them through correspondent banks in New York or London, and have the Kenyan bank convert them back into shillings. Two conversions, several intermediaries, and days of delay for a trade that never involved America. Each conversion carries a spread, and each intermediary bank can hold the payment for compliance checks. For a small exporter, the result is working capital locked up in transit and an FX cost that is hard to see on the invoice.</p>

<p>The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, launched publicly in January 2022 by Afreximbank and the African Union, is meant to fix that by settling in local currencies across borders. Its <a href="https://papss.com/network/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">network page</a>, last updated in July 2026, shows 21 central banks including the regional BEAC, among them Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe, plus a dozen national switches.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">PAPSS has solved the plumbing. It has not yet solved the liquidity.</blockquote>

<p>Our view is that PAPSS is promising but under-used. Connecting central banks is the easy part. The hard part is FX liquidity between thinly traded currency pairs, such as the Ghanaian cedi and the Kenyan shilling, without falling back on the dollar. Until there is a deep market for those pairs, many banks will continue routing through dollars, and businesses will keep looking for faster dollar alternatives. Correspondent banking's role is explained in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">our correspondent banking guide</a>.</p>

<h2>Stablecoins: the dollar layer nobody planned</h2>

<p>That gap is where stablecoins have grown. Chainalysis's <a href="https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/subsaharan-africa-crypto-adoption-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Sub-Saharan Africa report</a> found the region received over $205 billion in on-chain value between July 2024 and June 2025, up roughly 52 percent, making it the third fastest-growing region in the world. Nigeria alone received over $92.1 billion, nearly triple South Africa in second place. Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana rank in the regional top five.</p>

<p>The use cases are specific. Chainalysis describes stablecoins supporting regular multi-million-dollar transfers tied to trade between Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and a growing business-to-business sector in Nigeria and South Africa. At the retail end, over 8 percent of the region's transfer value was in amounts under $10,000, against about 6 percent elsewhere. USDT serves as a practical dollar substitute where official dollar access is rationed and the gap between official and parallel exchange rates is wide. Chainalysis links spikes in activity to naira devaluations, including one that drove monthly regional volume close to $25 billion.</p>

<p>Regulators are responding with licensing regimes rather than bans, though approaches differ widely. We track them in stablecoin regulation by country.</p>

<h2>Country snapshot</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>Tech funding 2025</th><th>Change</th><th>On-chain activity</th><th>Payments feature</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Kenya</td><td>$1.04B</td><td>+72%</td><td>Top five in region</td><td>95.31M mobile money accounts (Aug 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>South Africa</td><td>$715M</td><td>+21%</td><td>Second largest; large-ticket, arbitrage-heavy</td><td>Bank-led, card-heavy, hundreds of registered VASPs</td></tr>
<tr><td>Egypt</td><td>$604M</td><td>+37%</td><td>Not in Chainalysis SSA set</td><td>Africa's largest remittance recipient</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nigeria</td><td>$572M</td><td>-3%</td><td>Largest: over $92.1B received</td><td>NIBSS instant payments since 2011</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Funding figures are total equity and debt from Partech; on-chain data is from Chainalysis for July 2024 to June 2025.</p>

<h2>Where the money is going: fintech funding</h2>

<p>African tech funding recovered in 2025. <a href="https://partechpartners.com/africa-reports/2025-africa-tech-venture-capital-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Partech's 2025 Africa report</a> recorded about $4.1 billion in total equity and debt, up 25 percent from $3.25 billion, across 570 deals. Debt reached a record $1.64 billion, around 41 percent of the total. Kenya, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria took about 72 percent of the money.</p>

<p>Fintech, long the dominant sector, went the other way. It raised $1.49 billion in total, down 12 percent, and only $769 million in equity, down 43 percent. Investors are not abandoning payments. They are getting pickier, preferring revenue-backed debt over equity, and favouring infrastructure and B2B flows over another consumer wallet. That fits the trade-settlement story above.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the cost of moving $200</h2>

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa has long been the world's most expensive region to send money to. AfricaNenda, citing World Bank data, put the 2024 average at 8.45 percent of a $200 transfer. Here is what that looks like in practice.</p>

<ol>
<li>A worker in Johannesburg sends $200 to family in Lilongwe. At 8.45 percent, the cost is about $16.90, leaving roughly $183 to arrive.</li>
<li>The GSMA's figures imply an average mobile money international remittance of about $126 ($34 billion over 270 million transactions). At the same 8.45 percent, that transfer would cost about $10.65.</li>
<li>Compare the 6.36 percent global average in Q3 2025: on $200, the cost would be $12.72, about $4.18 less per transfer than the African average.</li>
<li>For a family receiving $200 a month, that gap alone is about $50 a year, before any FX margin hidden in the rate.</li>
</ol>

<p>The cheapest routes now tend to be wallet-to-wallet, where both ends are digital and no agent cash-out is needed. The expensive part is the last mile, which is why mobile money agents remain so important. For more on corridor costs see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/">why sending money to Africa costs so much</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Monthly CBK data:</b> Kenya's agent cash-out volumes are the best real-time indicator of whether digital money is staying digital.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026 and 2027:</b> new central banks joining PAPSS and, more importantly, whether its local-currency FX market develops real depth.</li>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the World Bank's annual remittance estimates, which will show whether Egypt keeps its lead over Nigeria.</li>
<li><b>Early 2027:</b> the GSMA's next State of the Industry report on mobile money and Partech's 2026 funding data.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> stablecoin licensing in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, which will decide whether the dollar layer moves into the regulated system or stays in OTC markets. Businesses weighing this can start with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article describes market data and is not investment advice. Rules on crypto assets differ by country; check with a qualified adviser before acting.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/payments-in-africa-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Circle&#x27;s IPO, 16 Months On: What Markets Now Say About Stablecoins</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>Circle priced at $31, hit $299 and has swung wildly since. What the CRCL share price says about how investors value stablecoins, rates and distribution.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">For most of their history, stablecoin issuers were private companies that published reserve reports and little else. Circle's listing on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 changed that. For the first time, investors could vote every day on what a regulated dollar-token business is worth. Sixteen months later, the verdict is in, and it is more nuanced than either the euphoric debut or the slump that followed.</p>

<h2>The debut: a stablecoin company priced like a tech darling</h2>
<p>Circle priced its offering at $31 a share, above the range it had marketed, and sold about 34 million shares to raise roughly $1.1 billion. When trading opened on 5 June 2025 the stock started at $69.50 and closed the day at $83.29, a 168% first-day gain that left the company worth around $16.7 billion, according to <a href="https://news.crunchbase.com/public/crypto-stablecoin-circle-shares-soar-ipo-nyse/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crunchbase News</a>.</p>
<p>The rally kept going. Within three weeks the shares hit a record of about $299, more than nine times the offer price. At that peak the market was valuing Circle well above the amount of USDC it had in circulation, which was a striking thing to pay for a business whose main income is interest on Treasury bills.</p>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$31</b><span>IPO price, June 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$299</b><span>record high, 23 June 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$84.51</b><span>closing price, 9 October 2026</span></div>
</div>

<h2>The comedown: rates, distribution costs and a sceptical BIS</h2>
<p>The turn came quickly. On the day the Bank for International Settlements published its 2025 annual report arguing that stablecoins fail key tests of sound money, Circle's shares fell more than 15%, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/359518/bis-stablecoins-tests-moniness-tokenization-circle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a> reported. By early July the lead underwriter, JPMorgan, had cut its rating to neutral, and the stock had dropped by more than a third from its peak.</p>
<p>Three worries did the damage, and they are still the right lens for the company:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Interest-rate exposure.</b> Nearly all of Circle's revenue is reserve income, so every Federal Reserve cut lowers it. Circle's reserve return rate was 3.48% in the second quarter of 2026, down 66 basis points from a year earlier.</li>
  <li><b>Distribution costs.</b> Circle pays a large share of its income to Coinbase and other partners. In the second quarter of 2026, distribution, transaction and other costs were $412 million against $701 million of revenue.</li>
  <li><b>Flat supply.</b> USDC circulation was $73.3 billion at the end of June 2026, down 5% from the previous quarter even though it was up 19% on the year.</li>
</ul>
<p>By December 2025 the shares were down nearly 70% from their high, according to <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/22/down-nearly-70-from-its-high-is-circle-internet-gr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Motley Fool</a>. For the full year 2025, Circle reported revenue of $2.7 billion, up 64%, but a net loss from continuing operations of $70 million, largely because of $424 million of stock-based compensation tied to the listing.</p>

<h2>The 2026 rebound: charters and a cheaper starting point</h2>
<p>This year has been a story of regulatory progress lifting a battered stock. Circle won a national trust charter in early July 2026 and a New York trust charter at the end of the month. Shares rose 52.6% in August, helped by bullish analyst notes and a 20% rise in bitcoin, according to an S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence figure cited by Nasdaq. Even after that rally, the stock was still about 61% below its 2025 peak in early September.</p>
<p>On 9 October 2026 Circle closed at $84.51, giving a market value of about $21.6 billion. Its 52-week range ran from $49.90 to $147.44, and the shares were down roughly 44% over twelve months, according to MarketScreener data. Circle's Arc blockchain, which went live in September with BlackRock, Visa and Mastercard among its validators, has given the bulls a new story about network revenue.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Public markets have decided that a stablecoin issuer is a rate-sensitive financial company first and a technology platform second.</blockquote>

<h2>What the share price is really telling us</h2>
<p>Strip out the noise and four messages stand out.</p>
<ol>
  <li><b>The float is valued like a deposit base.</b> At about $21.6 billion, Circle trades at roughly 0.3 times its USDC in circulation. At the mid-2025 peak it was above one. Investors now price USDC much as they would a bank's low-cost deposits: valuable, but only as valuable as the spread they earn.</li>
  <li><b>Distribution is the weak spot.</b> Markets reward businesses that own their customers. Circle's reliance on partners for reach shows up directly in its margins, which we unpack in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a>.</li>
  <li><b>Regulation is a premium, not a moat.</b> Charters and licences lifted the stock, but they are available to competitors too, including the bank consortia and card networks now issuing their own tokens.</li>
  <li><b>Crypto beta has not gone away.</b> Circle still moves with bitcoin. Short interest was around 13% of shares in early September 2026, a sign of how divided investors remain.</li>
</ol>

<h2>The wider listing wave</h2>
<p>Circle's debut opened the door for others. The exchange operator Bullish raised about $1.11 billion in its August 2025 New York listing, and Gemini raised about $425 million in September 2025 after pricing at $28 a share. Each has since traded on its own fundamentals, but together they gave public investors their first broad set of regulated crypto businesses to compare.</p>
<p>The most interesting comparison sits outside the stock market. Tether, far larger and more profitable than Circle, explored raising money at a $500 billion valuation in late 2025 before reportedly scaling back the plan after investor pushback. The gap between that ambition and Circle's roughly $21 billion market value shows how hard it still is to agree on what a dollar-token franchise is worth. For context on the two coins, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>What comes next</h2>
<p>Circle reports third-quarter results on 4 November 2026. The numbers to watch are USDC circulation, the reserve return rate after further rate cuts, the share of revenue paid to distributors, and any early income from Arc. The bigger question is the one public markets have been asking since June 2025: can a stablecoin issuer become a payments network that earns fees, rather than a money-market fund that earns spread? The share price will keep swinging until that is answered. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">2026 market report</a> tracks the supply side of the story.</p>
<p class="note">Share prices and market values are as of the dates stated. This article is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/circle-ipo-stablecoin-public-markets.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>MiCA Stablecoin Rules: EMT vs ART, Significant Tokens, Delistings</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>How MiCA sorts stablecoins into e-money tokens and asset-referenced tokens, the 10 million holder and EUR 5bn significance tests, EBA powers and delistings.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At one minute before midnight on 31 March 2025, Binance switched off spot trading pairs for nine stablecoins for users in the European Economic Area, among them USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, DAI and PAXG. The world's largest stablecoin had not been made illegal to hold. It simply had no authorised issuer under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, and platforms that wanted to keep their own licences could no longer list it. Fifteen months later, with MiCA's last transitional window having shut on 1 July 2026, that sorting is complete.</p>

<p>MiCA is often described as one stablecoin law. It is really two regimes with different rules, different supervisors and very different commercial outcomes. Getting the category right is the first question any issuer, exchange or corporate treasurer in Europe has to answer.</p>

<h2>Two boxes: e-money tokens and asset-referenced tokens</h2>

<p>MiCA's stablecoin rules, in Titles III and IV, have applied since 30 June 2024. Everything that aims to hold a stable value lands in one of two boxes.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>E-money tokens (EMTs)</b> reference a single official currency. USDC, EURC and the bank-issued euro coins sit here. Only an authorised electronic money institution or a credit institution may issue one, and holders get a claim on the issuer at par.</li>
<li><b>Asset-referenced tokens (ARTs)</b> reference anything else: a basket of currencies, a commodity such as gold, other crypto-assets or a mix. A gold-linked token would be an ART.</li>
</ul>

<p>The EMT box is the one the market has chosen. As of mid-2026, no ART issuer had been authorised anywhere in the EU, according to independent trackers of the ESMA register. The ART regime is heavier, closer to running a small bank's treasury, and without a clear payments use it has drawn no takers.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Rule</th><th>E-money token (EMT)</th><th>Asset-referenced token (ART)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>What it references</td><td>One official currency</td><td>Basket, commodity, crypto or other value</td></tr>
<tr><td>Who can issue</td><td>E-money institution or credit institution</td><td>Authorised ART issuer or credit institution</td></tr>
<tr><td>Redemption</td><td>At par, at any time</td><td>Per the reserve, under a redemption policy</td></tr>
<tr><td>Reserve placement</td><td>At least 30% in separate accounts at credit institutions</td><td>Segregated reserve of assets, custody rules</td></tr>
<tr><td>Own funds</td><td>E-money rules; ART-style rules if significant</td><td>Highest of EUR 350,000, 2% of reserve, or a quarter of fixed overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest to holders</td><td>Prohibited</td><td>Prohibited</td></tr>
<tr><td>Usage caps</td><td>Apply if in a non-EU currency</td><td>1 million transactions and EUR 200 million a day</td></tr>
<tr><td>Significant tier</td><td>EBA shares supervision; extra liquidity and audit duties</td><td>EBA supervises; own funds rise to 3%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The reserve and own-funds figures come straight from <a href="https://www.springlex.eu/en/packages/mica/mica-regulation/article-54/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 54</a> and <a href="https://www.springlex.eu/en/packages/mica/mica-regulation/article-45/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 45</a> of the regulation. Readers comparing this with the American approach should start with our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>The significance test, criterion by criterion</h2>

<p>The European Banking Authority moves into the frame once a token becomes "significant". <a href="https://www.esma.europa.eu/publications-and-data/interactive-single-rulebook/mica/article-43-classification-asset-referenced" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 43</a> sets seven criteria, and the same test is applied to EMTs. A token is classified when at least three are met:</p>

<ol>
<li>More than 10 million holders.</li>
<li>Value issued, market capitalisation or reserve size above EUR 5 billion.</li>
<li>Average daily transactions above 2.5 million in number and EUR 500 million in value.</li>
<li>The issuer is a designated gatekeeper under the Digital Markets Act.</li>
<li>Significant international activity, including use in payments and remittances.</li>
<li>Interconnectedness with the financial system.</li>
<li>The issuer offers at least one other token or crypto-asset service.</li>
</ol>

<p>Read that list as a large dollar coin would. A token with EUR 5 billion-plus in circulation already trips criterion two. A global issuer offering both a dollar and a euro token trips criterion seven. International use trips criterion five almost by definition. In other words, any big global EMT is likely to be significant on qualitative grounds alone, well before it reaches 10 million EU holders. The gatekeeper criterion is aimed squarely at the largest technology platforms.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>10M</b><span>holders: first significance criterion</span></div><div class="stat"><b>EUR 5bn</b><span>value or reserve threshold</span></div><div class="stat"><b>2.5M / EUR 500M</b><span>daily transactions and value</span></div></div>

<h2>Worked example: what significance costs</h2>

<p>Take a hypothetical asset-referenced token with an average reserve of EUR 6 billion over the past six months. Under <a href="https://www.springlex.eu/en/packages/mica/mica-regulation/article-35/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 35</a>, own funds must be the highest of EUR 350,000, 2% of the average reserve, or a quarter of last year's fixed overheads. Assume overheads of EUR 80 million, so a quarter is EUR 20 million.</p>

<ul>
<li>Floor: EUR 0.35 million</li>
<li>2% of EUR 6 billion: <b>EUR 120 million</b> (the binding figure)</li>
<li>Quarter of overheads: EUR 20 million</li>
</ul>

<p>If the token is classified as significant, Article 45 lifts the percentage to 3%, so own funds jump to <b>EUR 180 million</b>, an extra EUR 60 million of capital that earns nothing for holders. The draft liquidity standards must also require a minimum deposit in each referenced currency of no less than 60% of the amount referenced in that currency.</p>

<p>For an EMT the arithmetic is different but just as concrete. An issuer holding EUR 1 billion of funds from token holders must keep at least EUR 300 million in separate accounts at credit institutions under Article 54, with the remainder in high-quality liquid assets. Because EU banks hold those deposits, and because issuers cannot pay interest to holders, the margin left after costs depends heavily on deposit rates. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> shows why that 30% floor squeezes European economics relative to a US issuer holding mostly Treasury bills.</p>

<p>These are stylised numbers to show the mechanics. Firms considering issuance should take advice from qualified EU counsel.</p>

<h2>The cap that worries dollar coins</h2>

<p>The clause that gets less attention but matters most for payments is <a href="https://www.springlex.eu/en/packages/mica/mica-regulation/article-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 23</a>. If an ART's estimated quarterly average use as a means of exchange inside a single currency area exceeds 1 million transactions and EUR 200 million a day, the issuer must stop issuing and present a plan within 40 working days to bring usage back below those levels. Article 58 applies the same mechanism to EMTs denominated in a currency that is not an official currency of a member state, which means dollar EMTs.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">MiCA welcomes dollar stablecoins as trading tools and quietly caps them as money.</blockquote>

<p>The policy intent is plain: the EU does not want a dollar token becoming everyday money inside the euro area. A dollar coin can be held, traded and used for settlement, but if it starts powering millions of daily retail payments in the eurozone, its issuer hits a wall. For merchants and payment firms planning on-chain acceptance in Europe, that is a strong argument for euro EMTs at the checkout.</p>

<h2>How USDT left European order books</h2>

<p>The delisting wave followed a clear sequence. On <a href="https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-and-european-commission-publish-guidance-non-mica-compliant-arts-and-emts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">17 January 2025</a>, ESMA and the European Commission told national authorities to bring crypto-asset service providers into line on non-compliant ARTs and EMTs as soon as possible and no later than the end of the first quarter. Crypto.com set a 31 January 2025 date for delisting USDT and nine other tokens for European users, as <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/cefi/crypto-com-to-delist-usdt-nine-tokens-eu-january-31-2025-under-mica-rules-8be645fe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant reported</a>. Binance followed on 31 March, allowing sell-only trading until the cut-off, per <a href="https://it.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto%3A0be3c932d094b%3A0-binance-to-delist-usdt-and-several-other-stablecoins-in-europe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BeInCrypto via TradingView</a>.</p>

<p>Two details are often lost. First, holding USDT in a self-custody wallet in the EU remains lawful; the rules bite on offers to the public and on services provided by licensed platforms. Second, the restriction is about the issuer, not the asset design. USDT has no MiCA-authorised issuer, so it does not appear in the EMT register at all. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC comparison</a> covers why one of the two big dollar coins chose to come inside the regime and the other did not.</p>

<h2>Who is inside the tent</h2>

<p>The authorised side is now a recognisable roster: Circle with USDC and EURC, Societe Generale-Forge with EURCV and USDCV, Paxos's EU entity, Banking Circle's EURI, Monerium's EURe, StablR, Quantoz and AllUnity among them. Most tokens are euro-denominated, with dollar, sterling and Swiss franc tokens in the mix.</p>

<p>Scale is the problem. The ECB's April 2026 Macroprudential Bulletin, cited by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/06/04/euro-stablecoins-are-scaling-while-the-digital-euro-waits-on-brussels/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forbes</a>, put euro stablecoins at about EUR 450 million in January 2026, up from EUR 50 million two years earlier but still roughly 0.2% of a stablecoin market worth around $300 billion. A ninefold rise sounds impressive until you set it next to the dollar side. MiCA has made the EU the most legally certain place to issue a euro coin; it has not yet made anyone want one at scale. For newer entrants, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/beyond-usdt-usdc-new-stablecoins/">beyond USDT and USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>Platforms: the end of grandfathering</h2>

<p>The issuer rules have been live since 2024. What changed on 1 July 2026 was the platform side. Member states could let existing crypto firms keep operating under national rules for up to 18 months while they sought a MiCA authorisation. Some cut that short: the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Hungary and Slovenia closed their windows on 30 June 2025 and Sweden on 30 September 2025. The final outer limit was 1 July 2026, according to <a href="https://www.elliptic.co/blog/the-end-of-micas-transitional-period" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elliptic</a>, which counted 213 authorised CASP entries across 23 jurisdictions on ESMA's interim register just before the deadline. December 2025 was the busiest month, with 41 authorisations. Every one of those licensed platforms is bound to list only compliant stablecoins. For the licence types involved, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">CASP, VASP and MTL licences explained</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Second half of 2026:</b> the Qivalis consortium of European banks, which started with nine banks in September 2025 and added BNP Paribas by December, targets launch of a euro stablecoin. It is the first real test of whether bank-issued euro EMTs can grow.</li>
<li><b>EBA significance decisions:</b> the first formal classification of a large EMT as significant would bring EBA into day-to-day supervision and six-monthly independent audits under Article 58.</li>
<li><b>Digital euro legislation:</b> the ECB moved the project to its next phase on 30 October 2025. A pilot is possible from mid-2027 and issuance no earlier than 2029, if the regulation passes in 2026. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">digital euro explainer</a>.</li>
<li><b>Transatlantic equivalence:</b> the US GENIUS Act requires Treasury to judge whether foreign regimes are comparable. MiCA is the obvious first candidate, which matters for euro EMTs seeking US distribution.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our view: MiCA did what it set out to do on legal certainty and consumer claims, and its usage caps are a deliberate monetary-sovereignty tool rather than an accident. The open question is commercial. If euro coins stay below one percent of the market, Europe will have built a fine regulatory house that mostly hosts dollar tenants. For a wider view across jurisdictions, see stablecoin regulation by country.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>CBDC Tracker 2026: 146 Countries Exploring, Only 3 Fully Launched</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Where central bank digital currencies stand in 2026: how many countries are exploring, piloting or have launched, and why the momentum moved to wholesale CBDCs.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-tracker-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">If you measured the future of money by how many central banks are studying it, CBDCs would look unstoppable. Almost every major economy has a team on it. If you measured by how many ordinary people use one, you would conclude they barely exist. Both readings are correct, and the gap between them is the most interesting thing about digital currencies in 2026.</p>

<h2>The headline numbers</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>146</b><span>countries and currency unions exploring a CBDC</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>98%</b><span>of global GDP covered by those jurisdictions</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>3</b><span>countries with a fully launched CBDC</span></div>
</div>
<p>Those figures come from the Atlantic Council's <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBDC Tracker</a>, which is the most widely cited count. As of its May 2026 update the tracker records 41 pilot projects, down from the record 49 pilots <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/07/03/cbdc-pilots-in-49-countries-crypto" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Axios</a> reported in July 2025, and 77 jurisdictions in an advanced stage that spans development, pilot and launch. The three launched currencies belong to the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria. None of them has yet shown sustained mass use.</p>
<p>The Bank for International Settlements tells a similar story from the inside. Its <a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap159.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024 survey</a>, published in August 2025, found that 91% of the 93 central banks that responded were exploring a retail CBDC, a wholesale CBDC or both. More than one in three said stablecoins and other crypto assets had pushed them to speed up.</p>

<h2>Research is cheap; launching is hard</h2>
<p>Why the gulf between 146 and 3? Launching a retail CBDC forces a central bank to answer questions it can comfortably avoid in a research paper. Who runs the wallets? What happens to bank deposits if people move savings into central bank money? How much privacy should a payment have? What does the central bank do when a phone is lost?</p>
<p>Every serious project has hit at least one of these. The euro area's answer is holding limits and no interest. India's answer is a wallet that pays nothing and caps transfers in some apps. China, as we explain below, has just changed its answer entirely.</p>

<h2>The two giants: China and India</h2>
<p>The largest pilots by far are China's e-CNY and India's e₹. China's central bank said that by the end of September 2025, the e-CNY had processed 3.32 billion transactions worth a cumulative 14.2 trillion yuan, with 225 million personal wallets opened. From 1 January 2026, e-CNY wallet balances became interest-bearing liabilities of commercial banks, a structural shift that turns digital cash into something closer to a deposit.</p>
<p>India's retail e₹ had a little over 8 million users and more than 120 million transactions by December 2025. It is growing, but at nothing like the pace of UPI. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">our digital rupee explainer</a> for the figures.</p>

<h2>Europe is the one to watch</h2>
<p>The digital euro is the most consequential retail CBDC still on the drawing board, because it would cover a large, rich, cash-heavy economy. The European Parliament voted 416 to 169 in July 2026 to open negotiations on the legislation, with a deal targeted by the end of 2026. The ECB has pencilled in a pilot for 2027 and possible issuance in 2029. We walk through the details in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">digital euro explained</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The CBDC story of 2026 is less about coins for consumers and more about pipes between banks.</blockquote>

<h2>The quiet shift to wholesale</h2>
<p>The BIS survey noted that wholesale CBDC work is, overall, further along than retail. That matches what is happening on the ground:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>mBridge</b>, the multi-central-bank platform linking China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE, had passed about $55.5 billion in cumulative cross-border value by January 2026, according to Atlantic Council data cited by Reuters. The PBOC's own count, almost 500 billion yuan by the end of 2025, is higher.</li>
  <li><b>Project Agorá</b>, led by the BIS with seven central banks and more than 40 financial firms, reported in May 2026 that its prototype could settle tokenised cross-border payments in seconds.</li>
  <li><b>India's wholesale e₹</b> is being used to test settlement of government bonds, call money and tokenised certificates of deposit.</li>
</ul>
<p>Wholesale projects dodge the hardest political questions. Nobody worries about bank runs when the only users are banks.</p>

<h2>The ones going the other way</h2>
<p>Not everyone is moving forward. In the United States, Executive Order 14178, signed on 23 January 2025, bars federal agencies from establishing or promoting a retail CBDC. The tracker now classifies the US as inactive on retail. Brazil, once a poster child with its Drex project, told participants in November 2025 that it would shut down the blockchain infrastructure behind it and refocus on a narrower collateral project. We cover that turn in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix and Drex</a>.</p>

<h2>A quick tour by region</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Caribbean:</b> the Bahamas and Jamaica were early launchers and remain the best evidence that a small, well-run CBDC can go live, and that going live does not guarantee people will use it.</li>
  <li><b>Africa:</b> Nigeria's eNaira is the continent's only fully launched retail CBDC. Elsewhere, mobile money services already meet many of the needs a CBDC would target.</li>
  <li><b>Asia:</b> China and India run the largest pilots, Hong Kong and Thailand sit inside mBridge.</li>
  <li><b>Gulf:</b> the UAE remains a core mBridge participant, while the Saudi Central Bank ended its membership after completing a proof of concept.</li>
  <li><b>Europe:</b> the euro area is legislating, with a deal targeted for the end of 2026.</li>
  <li><b>Americas:</b> the US has stepped back from retail, and Brazil has narrowed Drex.</li>
</ul>

<h2>How to read the tracker</h2>
<p>A few things to keep in mind when you see a big number quoted:</p>
<ol>
  <li><b>Exploring is a low bar.</b> It can mean a single research paper or a working group.</li>
  <li><b>A pilot is not a product.</b> Many pilots are closed tests with a handful of banks.</li>
  <li><b>Launched does not mean used.</b> All three launched retail CBDCs have struggled with adoption.</li>
  <li><b>Wholesale and retail are different animals.</b> Counting them together hides where the real progress is.</li>
</ol>
<p>Our reading is that CBDCs are becoming infrastructure that most people will never see directly. The digital money most consumers touch will more likely be bank deposits and, increasingly, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins and tokenised deposits</a>, with central bank money settling underneath.</p>
<p class="note">Country counts are from the Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker as reported in 2025 and early 2026; the tracker is updated periodically and counts may shift.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-tracker-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Bharat Connect Explained: 3 Billion Bills a Year and How NRIs Pay Them</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>Bharat Connect (formerly BBPS) handled about 3.05 billion bill payments in 2025. How it works, what it covers and how NRIs pay Indian bills from overseas.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bharat-connect-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">If you've paid an electricity bill in India through your bank app, Paytm, PhonePe or a corner shop in the last few years, you've almost certainly used Bharat Connect without knowing it. It's one of the most important pieces of India's payment system that nobody talks about at dinner.</p>

<h2>What is Bharat Connect?</h2>
<p>Bharat Connect is India's national bill-payment network. It used to be called the Bharat Bill Payment System, or BBPS, and was renamed at the Global Fintech Fest in 2024. It's run by NPCI Bharat BillPay, a subsidiary of the National Payments Corporation of India, the same organisation behind UPI.</p>
<p>Think of it as a common language between billers and the apps people pay from. An electricity company plugs in once. After that, every bank, wallet and payment app connected to the network can fetch its bills and pay them, with instant confirmation and a standard receipt.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>~3.05B</b><span>bill payments in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~₹14.84 lakh crore</b><span>paid through the network in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>22,000+</b><span>billers across 25+ categories</span></div>
</div>

<h2>What can you pay through it?</h2>
<p>The list has grown well beyond utilities. Today it covers electricity, water, piped gas, LPG bookings, mobile postpaid, broadband, DTH, insurance premiums, loan repayments, credit cards, FASTag, school and college fees, municipal taxes, housing society dues, subscriptions and more. Recurring payments can be set up as standing instructions, so things like insurance or a mutual fund instalment pay themselves.</p>

<h2>How it works, in four steps</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>You choose a biller</b> in any connected app and enter your customer number.</li>
  <li><b>The app fetches the bill</b> live from the biller: amount, due date, name on the account.</li>
  <li><b>You pay</b> by UPI, card, net banking or wallet.</li>
  <li><b>The biller gets confirmation</b> instantly, and you get a reference number that both sides recognise if anything goes wrong.</li>
</ol>
<p>That last point matters more than it sounds. Because every payment carries a standard reference, complaints and refunds follow a common process instead of depending on each company's customer service.</p>

<h2>Paying Indian bills from abroad</h2>
<p>Since September 2022, Non-Resident Indians have been able to pay Indian bills directly from overseas through approved partners, without first moving money into a relative's bank account. Banks and exchange houses in the Gulf, the UK, Canada and elsewhere have built services on top of this, and the network expanded the scope of cross-border transactions in 2024.</p>
<p>For families, this is a quiet revolution. A daughter in Dubai can pay her parents' electricity bill in Kochi directly. A son in Toronto can clear his sister's college fees in Pune before the deadline. The money doesn't stop in anyone's account along the way.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The best thing about Bharat Connect is that most people don't know they're using it. That's what good infrastructure looks like.</blockquote>

<h2>What's still hard</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>The cross-border leg.</b> Bharat Connect handles the Indian side beautifully. Getting money from abroad into India still runs through the traditional remittance system, with its fees and exchange-rate margins.</li>
  <li><b>Visibility for families.</b> Most apps abroad let you pay one bill at a time. Few show you a household's full picture: what's due, what's paid, what's coming.</li>
  <li><b>Fragmented choice.</b> Each overseas provider supports a different set of countries and categories.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Where this is heading</h2>
<p>India has shown the world what a national bill network can do. The next step is joining it to fast, low-cost global rails, so that paying a bill in India from anywhere feels as simple as paying one at home. Other countries are watching closely, and several are building their own versions.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/bharat-connect-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Diaspora Philanthropy: FCRA Rules, Zakat and Village Funds in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-philanthropy-giving-back/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-philanthropy-giving-back/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>How the Indian diaspora gives back: $4-5B in Indian American giving, Gujarat&#x27;s 60:40 village scheme, zakat and FCRA rules for NRI and OCI donors.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/diaspora-philanthropy-giving-back.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Uttarsanda, a village of about 12,000 people in Gujarat's Kheda district, has a modern bus stand, upgraded classrooms with projectors and CCTV, a beautified pond and new crematoriums. Most of it was paid for by people who no longer live there. Under the state's Vatan Prem scheme, emigrant families have put roughly Rs 9 crore into the village, including Rs 40 lakh from one donor for a crematorium. Drive an hour in almost any direction in central Gujarat, coastal Kerala or Punjab's Doaba belt and you will find the same pattern: a diaspora that sends money home not only to relatives but to the place itself.</p>

<p>Diaspora philanthropy is large, fast-growing and badly measured. It also runs into one of India's most tightly policed laws, the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act. This piece sets out what the data does show, how the main giving channels work, and why the same Rs 5 lakh gift can be routine or regulated depending on which passport the giver holds.</p>

<h2>How big is diaspora giving?</h2>

<p>No official series tracks diaspora donations to India. The best estimates come from the diaspora's largest and richest branch. A 2025 study by Dalberg for Indiaspora estimated that <a href="https://dalberg.com/announcements/press-release-indian-american-philanthropy-narrows-giving-gap-from-2-3-billion-to-just-1-billion-new-report-urges-the-community-to-set-the-global-standard-for-philanthropy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian Americans gave $4-5 billion in 2024</a>, nearly triple the 2018 baseline, and that the gap between their giving potential and actual giving had narrowed from $2-3 billion to about $1 billion. The same report projects a $2 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer within the community over twenty years. Note that this is total giving, much of it to US causes such as universities; the study does not split out what goes to India.</p>

<p>For scale, Bain's <a href="https://www.bain.com/insights/india-philanthropy-report-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India Philanthropy Report 2026</a> puts all private philanthropy inside India at Rs 1.43 lakh crore, or about $16 billion, in FY25, with families contributing about 42% through personal giving and family-business CSR. Bain projects private giving to grow 9-11% a year to FY30, well short of the 25%-plus it says would be needed to stop the social-sector funding gap from widening. It also flags the diaspora, which it puts at about 34 million people, as an under-tapped source of money, time and expertise.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$4-5B</b><span>Indian American giving, 2024 (Dalberg)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$16B</b><span>private philanthropy in India, FY25 (Bain)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>60:40</b><span>diaspora-to-state split, Gujarat Vatan Prem</span></div></div>

<p>Put those numbers next to India's $135.46 billion in annual remittances and the picture is clear: formal philanthropy is a thin slice of what the diaspora sends. A lot of giving is informal, routed through relatives, temple and mosque committees, alumni groups and caste or village associations, and appears in the statistics as family maintenance. Our analysis of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/">what remittances pay for</a> shows how blurred that line is.</p>

<h2>The passport test at the heart of FCRA</h2>

<p>The single most misunderstood rule in diaspora giving is that FCRA turns on citizenship, not residence. An Indian citizen living in Dallas or Dubai is generally not a "foreign source" under Section 2(1)(j) of the Act, so a donation from that person to an Indian charity is ordinarily treated as domestic money. A person of Indian origin who holds a US, UK or Canadian passport, including an OCI cardholder, can be a foreign source, and the same gift becomes a <a href="https://www.oquilia.com/news/oquilia-research-nri-donations-fcra-foreign-contribution-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign contribution under Section 2(1)(h)</a>, even if it is paid from an NRO account in India.</p>

<p>That matters because only organisations with FCRA registration or prior government permission may accept foreign contributions, and the rules for those that do were tightened sharply in 2020. Under the current framework, as summarised in this <a href="https://carajput.com/learn/fcra-2010-incorporating-amendments-up-to-june-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guide to FCRA as amended up to June 2026</a>:</p>

<ul>
<li>All foreign contributions must first land in a designated FCRA account at the State Bank of India's designated FCRA main branch.</li>
<li>Administrative expenses are capped at 20% of foreign contributions, down from 50% before 2020.</li>
<li>Foreign contributions cannot be passed on to another NGO; the penalty is Rs 1 lakh or 10% of the amount, whichever is higher.</li>
<li>Registration lasts five years and requires a track record of at least three years and at least Rs 15 lakh of programme spending.</li>
<li>Gifts from relatives abroad do not need FCRA registration, but if they exceed Rs 10 lakh in a financial year the recipient must file an intimation within three months.</li>
</ul>

<p>Enforcement has been heavy. The Home Ministry has cancelled or refused renewal for <a href="https://anantamias.com/fcra-amendment-bill-2026-pending/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 16,000 NGOs since 2020</a>, according to data tabled in Parliament, and an FCRA Amendment Bill, 2026 is pending. Many small village trusts have simply stopped accepting money from foreign-citizen donors because compliance is not worth it.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">In diaspora giving, the passport matters more than the postcode. Two siblings can send the same cheque to the same school and trigger two different legal regimes.</blockquote>

<h2>Channels compared</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Channel</th><th>Typical donor</th><th>Key rule</th><th>Practical catch</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Donation to Indian trust, Indian-citizen NRI</td><td>Gulf worker, H-1B professional</td><td>Ordinarily not foreign contribution</td><td>Trust still needs donor KYC and receipts</td></tr>
<tr><td>Donation to Indian trust, OCI or foreign citizen</td><td>Second-generation diaspora</td><td>Foreign contribution; trust needs FCRA registration</td><td>Must credit SBI designated FCRA main-branch account; 20% admin cap</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gift to relatives for a local cause</td><td>Any</td><td>FCRA intimation above Rs 10 lakh a year</td><td>Relative becomes the legal owner of the money</td></tr>
<tr><td>State matching scheme (e.g. Vatan Prem)</td><td>Emigrant village associations</td><td>Diaspora pays 60%, state 40%</td><td>Works executed through government process</td></tr>
<tr><td>Zakat and sadaqah via Gulf institutions</td><td>Muslim diaspora in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar</td><td>2.5% of qualifying wealth; Zakat al-Fitr set annually</td><td>Cross-border routing to India often via relatives</td></tr>
<tr><td>Giving circle or host-country charity</td><td>US, UK professionals</td><td>Host-country tax rules apply</td><td>Indian grantees still face FCRA on the receiving end</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Matching schemes: Gujarat's Vatan Prem model</h2>

<p>Gujarat launched the <a href="https://www.gktoday.in/gujarat-launches-vatan-prem-yojana/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vatan Prem Yojana on 7 August 2021</a>, replacing an earlier 50:50 scheme. Non-resident Gujaratis contribute 60% of the cost of a village project and the state pays the remaining 40%, across a menu that includes smart classrooms, libraries, primary health centres, anganwadis, CCTV, drainage, sewage treatment, bus stands and solar street lights. The governing body proposed works worth Rs 1,000 crore at launch. <a href="https://www.etvbharat.com/en/!state/nri-contributions-transform-gujarat-villages-under-vatan-prem-yojana-enn25040501481" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reporting from Kheda district</a> shows what it looks like on the ground: Rs 72 lakh from emigrants for a new school serving nearly 400 children in Khadal, and the Rs 9 crore package in Uttarsanda.</p>

<p>The appeal for donors is leverage and accountability. The state's share stretches each rupee, and the asset is built through public works procedures rather than by an unknown local committee. The trade-off is speed and control: government execution can be slow, and donors cannot choose contractors. We think more states with large emigrant populations should copy the model, with published project-level dashboards so donors can see delivery, not just announcements.</p>

<h2>Worked example: two siblings, one village school</h2>

<p>Consider two siblings in New Jersey whose parents came from a Kheda village. Anjali still holds an Indian passport. Her brother Rohit is a US citizen with an OCI card. Each wants to give Rs 5 lakh to upgrade the village school.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Through a private village trust.</b> Anjali's Rs 5 lakh is ordinarily domestic money; the trust issues a receipt and spends it. Rohit's Rs 5 lakh is a foreign contribution. If the trust lacks FCRA registration, it cannot accept it. If it has registration, the money must arrive in the trust's SBI designated main-branch FCRA account, no more than Rs 1 lakh of it may go on administration, and none can be passed to the school's own management committee if that is a separate entity.</li>
<li><b>Through the matching scheme.</b> If the siblings pool Rs 10 lakh as the diaspora's 60% share, the project budget becomes about Rs 16.67 lakh, with the state adding roughly Rs 6.67 lakh. That is two-thirds more school for the same money, delivered through public works.</li>
<li><b>Through their mother in India.</b> If both siblings send money to their mother, who then donates locally, gifts from relatives below Rs 10 lakh a year need no FCRA filing. But the money legally becomes hers first, which has tax and inheritance consequences in both countries.</li>
</ol>

<p>None of this is legal or tax advice. FCRA is enforced strictly, and both donors and recipients should confirm the current rules with a qualified adviser. Our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a> cover the adjacent questions.</p>

<h2>Zakat, sadaqah and the Gulf corridor</h2>

<p>For millions of Muslim workers in the Gulf, giving is a religious obligation with a fixed rate. Zakat is <a href="https://www.adib.ae/en/moneysmart/2026/march/how-to-calculate-and-pay-your-zakat-simply" target="_blank" rel="noopener">calculated at 2.5% of savings and assets held for a lunar year</a> above the nisab threshold. Zakat al-Fitr, paid before Eid, is small per person but universal: the UAE Fatwa Council set it for Ramadan 2026 at <a href="https://gulfnews.com/uae/uae-fatwa-council-sets-ramadan-2026-zakat-al-fitr-and-fidyah-values-1.500436380" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AED 25 in cash or 2.5 kg of rice</a> per person.</p>

<p>Much of this money is distributed locally in the Gulf, but a significant share flows home through families to madrasas, orphanages and needy relatives in Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Hyderabad. Institutional zakat is also scaling. UNHCR's Islamic philanthropy programme received <a href="https://zakat.unhcr.org/annualreport/annual-2025/executive-summary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than $23 million in zakat in 2025</a>, distributed in full to over 579,000 eligible refugees and displaced people across 17 countries, alongside about $16 million in sadaqah. Rules on routing zakat to Indian institutions face the same FCRA passport test when the giver is a foreign citizen. For sending mechanics on the corridor, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India money transfer</a>.</p>

<h2>Crowdfunding and the trust problem</h2>

<p>Village WhatsApp groups now raise money for borewells, temple roofs, flood relief and a classmate's chemotherapy within days. That speed is the strength and the weakness. Crowdfunded appeals are hard to verify, platforms vary in how they check beneficiaries, and the same FCRA rules apply to the recipient organisation whatever app collected the money. Fake appeals during floods and medical emergencies are a known scam pattern; our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> covers the warning signs.</p>

<p>Three habits separate effective diaspora givers from frustrated ones: they give through a registered entity with published accounts, they ask for photos and receipts tied to specific milestones, and they pool money through alumni or village associations rather than writing many small cheques. Giving circles, which Dalberg found interest 24% of next-generation donors and a third of next-generation women, formalise exactly that.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Winter Session of Parliament, late 2026:</b> whether the pending FCRA Amendment Bill, 2026 is taken up, and whether it tightens rules further for small NGOs or for OCI donors.</li>
<li><b>2026-27:</b> implementation of the FCRA Rules now in force, including purpose- and state-based registration and new utilisation thresholds for renewal.</li>
<li><b>7-9 January 2027:</b> Pravasi Bharatiya Divas in Kolkata, a natural venue for new state-level matching schemes modelled on Gujarat's.</li>
<li><b>Ramadan 2027 (around February-March):</b> the next Zakat al-Fitr rate announcements from Gulf authorities.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our view: the diaspora's appetite to give is not the constraint. The constraints are trust in recipients, the compliance cost FCRA imposes on small organisations, and the absence of good public data. States that build transparent matching schemes, and charities that make compliance visible rather than hidden, will capture a growing share of the money. For the investment side of diaspora engagement, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-bonds-explained/">diaspora bonds explained</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/diaspora-philanthropy-giving-back.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>OFW Remittances in 2026: $35.6B a Year and the Shift to E-Wallets</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>Filipinos abroad sent a record $35.63 billion in cash remittances in 2025. What it costs, how GCash and Maya changed receiving, and what families pay with it.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/philippines-remittances-ofw.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Every June and July, a caregiver in Hong Kong or a seafarer docking in Rotterdam sends a little more home than usual. School is starting in the Philippines, and tuition, uniforms and enrolment fees come due at once. The central bank's monthly data shows the pattern clearly, and it tells a bigger story: remittances to the Philippines are still growing, but slowly, while the way families receive and spend that money has changed faster than at any time in the past decade.</p>

<h2>The numbers: a record year, a slower pace</h2>
<p>According to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data reported by <a href="https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/02/17/2508451/remittances-reach-record-high-356-billion/amp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star</a>, cash remittances sent through banks reached a record $35.63 billion in 2025, up 3.3% from 2024. Personal remittances, which also count informal channels and goods in kind, came to $39.62 billion. December alone set a monthly record of $3.52 billion.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$35.63B</b><span>cash remittances in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>7.3%</b><span>of Philippine GDP</span></div><div class="stat"><b>39.7%</b><span>share sent from the United States</span></div></div>
<p>Cash remittances were equal to 7.3% of GDP and 6.4% of gross national income. Land-based workers sent $28.49 billion and sea-based workers $7.14 billion. Growth in 2026 has stayed in low single digits: cash remittances for January to July totalled $19.54 billion, up 2.3%, with July coming in at $3.24 billion, according to the <a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/09/15/bsp-ofw-remittances-reach-2039-billion-in-first-seven-months" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune</a>. RCBC's chief economist called July's pace among the slowest since May 2022, while noting that school-opening costs had pushed the monthly level up.</p>
<p>One reason families have not felt the slowdown as much: a weaker peso. With the dollar near 62.80 pesos in mid-2026, each dollar stretched further at home, even if higher local prices took some of that back.</p>

<h2>Where the money comes from</h2>
<p>The United States remains dominant, accounting for 39.7% of cash remittances in both 2025 and the first seven months of 2026. Singapore (7.1% in January to July 2026), Saudi Arabia (6.3%), Japan (5%) and the United Kingdom (4.7%) follow. Some of the US share reflects how money is routed: transfers from workers elsewhere sometimes pass through US-based banks and are recorded there.</p>
<p>The Gulf matters more than its headline share suggests, because Filipinos there tend to send smaller amounts more often. That makes per-transfer fees especially important. A domestic worker in Kuwait sending 50 dinars every payday feels a flat fee far more than a nurse in California sending a larger sum once a month.</p>
<p>Seasonality is just as strong. December is the peak, driven by Christmas spending and the year-end bonuses many overseas workers receive, and June to August rises again with the school calendar. Families plan around those spikes: enrolment, uniforms and the Noche Buena table are budgeted months ahead, often against an expected transfer rather than money already in hand. That is one reason a slower growth rate matters even when totals are at records. Families who have built their budgets on rising transfers feel any slowdown at once.</p>

<h2>What it costs to send</h2>
<p>The Philippines is one of the cheaper places in the world to send money to. World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide data for the third quarter of 2025 shows the average total cost of sending the equivalent of $200 from the UAE to the Philippines at 3.04%, and from the United States at 4.52% for transparent offers. Both sit well below the global average, which the <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank</a> put at 6.36% in the same period.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Corridor ($200 equivalent)</th><th>Average total cost, Q3 2025</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>UAE to Philippines</td><td>3.04%</td></tr><tr><td>United States to Philippines</td><td>4.52%</td></tr><tr><td>Global average</td><td>6.36%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Averages hide a wide spread, though. A cash pickup at an agent with a poor exchange rate can cost several times more than an app transfer straight to a wallet. Our breakdown of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the real cost of sending money home</a> explains how FX margins often outweigh the visible fee.</p>

<h2>GCash, Maya and the end of the queue</h2>
<p>A decade ago, receiving money often meant a trip to a pawnshop or remittance counter. Today a growing share lands directly in e-wallets. GCash says about 81% of Filipinos have an account, and it has added real-time inbound transfers from the US and Canada through licensed money transmitters, as reported by Gulf News in 2025. Maya and bank apps compete for the same flows.</p>
<p>The wider payments system has moved in the same direction. The BSP said digital payments made up 64.7% of retail payment volume in 2025, up from 57.4% a year earlier and inside its 60% to 70% target, according to the <a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/08/19/bsp-digital-payments-account-for-nearly-two-thirds-of-retail-volume" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune</a>. QR Ph processed 2.47 billion transactions worth P1.16 trillion and overtook card payments for the first time. A central bank circular now requires transfer fees between banks and e-wallets to stay close to same-institution fees, and several large banks waived InstaPay and PESONet charges.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The money still crosses the ocean the old way; what changed is the last mile, which now ends on a phone.</blockquote>

<h2>From remittance to bills</h2>
<p>For many families, the remittance is effectively a bill payment that took a detour. Money arrives in a wallet, and within days most of it goes to electricity, water, tuition, internet and loan instalments. Wallets have built bill-pay menus for exactly this reason. We argued in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/">bills are the real remittance</a> that paying a household's obligations directly from abroad could cut out a conversion and a few days of float.</p>
<p>A sender in Riyadh who pays her family's internet and water bills directly, rather than sending cash and hoping they are paid on time, gains something hard to measure: certainty.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Instant cross-border links.</b> The Philippines is one of the founding members of Project Nexus, the BIS-incubated scheme to connect national instant payment systems, with InstaPay and PESONet among the domestic systems to be linked. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> covers the timeline.</li>
<li><b>Seafarer and Gulf demand.</b> Sea-based remittances grew 2.9% in 2025, a little slower than land-based ones. Shipping and Middle East labour conditions will shape the next two years.</li>
<li><b>Exchange rate.</b> A weak peso flatters peso-denominated totals; a rebound would squeeze families even if dollar flows hold steady.</li>
</ul>
<p>The headline growth numbers may look sleepy. The plumbing beneath them is anything but.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/philippines-remittances-ofw.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Programmable e-Rupee: 6 RBI Pilot Use Cases and What Is Live in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>How the RBI&#x27;s programmable e-rupee works, from Odisha&#x27;s Subhadra payments to PDS food subsidies and tenant farmer credit, and why circulation fell in 2025-26.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In February 2026, ration-card holders in parts of Gujarat began receiving part of their food subsidy as digital rupees that could only be spent at a fair price shop or a designated merchant. Try to buy a phone recharge with that money and the wallet simply declines. That small refusal is the whole idea behind a programmable e-rupee, and it is the corner of India's central bank digital currency that has moved fastest in 2025-26, even as the headline circulation number went the other way.</p>

<h2>What "programmable" means in the RBI's version</h2>
<p>The Reserve Bank of India set out its design in the <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&amp;ID=1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Concept Note on CBDC</a> of October 2022. The retail digital rupee (e₹-R) was to be a token, closer to a banknote than to a bank balance, distributed through banks in a two-tier model and paying no interest. Programmability was not the headline then. It arrived in February 2024, when Governor Shaktikanta Das told the policy press conference that the pilot would add use cases built on programmability and offline functionality, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/finance/news/rbi-to-introduce-offline-digital-rupee-transactions-soon-governor-das-124020800381_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>.</p>
<p>The examples he gave were concrete. A government agency could ensure that money reaches only a defined benefit. A company could fence spending to something like employee business travel. Rules could also set a validity period, or restrict the geographic area in which the token works. In practice a programmable token carries a small rulebook: who may receive it, which merchant categories may accept it, where, and until when. When the conditions are met, the merchant receives ordinary e-rupee that it can use like any other money.</p>
<p>That last point matters for the economics. Deputy Governor T Rabi Shankar has argued that a restriction is temporary, saying programmability "just puts it on hold" as far as fungibility goes, a framing quoted in a <a href="https://finshots.in/archive/will-rbi-make-money-dance-to-its-tunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finshots explainer</a>. The rupee in a citizen's wallet is conditional; the rupee in a shopkeeper's wallet is not.</p>
<p>It is easy to confuse this with other Indian tools. e-RUPI, for instance, is a voucher that runs over the UPI rails and is issued by a bank. A programmable e₹ is central bank money with a rule attached. We cover the voucher route separately and the broader concept in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/">purpose-bound money explained</a>.</p>

<h2>From banknote to rulebook: how the pilot got here</h2>
<p>The wholesale pilot (e₹-W) started on 1 November 2022 with nine banks settling secondary-market government securities trades. The retail pilot followed on 1 December 2022 in closed user groups. By December 2023 the retail pilot had hit a target of one million transactions a day, a number the RBI and the pilot banks had set out to reach.</p>
<p>Programmability and offline payments were added during 2024. At the RBI@90 conference in August 2024, the Governor described a pilot of more than 5 million users and 16 banks, and named two farm-sector use cases that we return to below, according to a <a href="https://digitalpoundfoundation.com/?p=15806" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Pound Foundation summary of the event</a>. By March 2025, the RBI's annual report counted 17 banks and about 6 million users, and non-bank firms such as MobiKwik and CRED had been allowed to run CBDC wallets, as <a href="https://www.medianama.com/2025/05/223-fintech-highlights-rbi-annual-report-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MediaNama's digest of the report</a> noted. Reported user numbers reached roughly 7 million across 19 banks by October 2025.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>₹771.66 cr</b><span>e-rupee in circulation, 31 March 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>-24%</b><span>change from ₹1,016.46 crore a year earlier</span></div><div class="stat"><b>88,000</b><span>Subhadra beneficiaries paid in e-rupee</span></div></div>
<p>Then came the awkward number. The RBI Annual Report 2025-26, released at the end of May 2026, put CBDC-Retail in circulation at ₹771.66 crore on 31 March 2026, down about 24% from ₹1,016.46 crore a year before, as <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/banking/rbi-to-expand-digital-rupee-pilots-explore-cross-border-cbdc-transactions-in-fy27" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money reported</a>. In the same report, the RBI described a year in which CBDC pilots moved into direct benefit transfer schemes of the Centre and the states. Fewer rupees sitting in wallets, more rupees doing specific jobs. We think those two facts are connected.</p>

<h2>What is live: the use cases the RBI has actually run</h2>
<p>The list below is limited to use cases that the RBI or the governments involved have described publicly as run or piloted. Most are small. None is a national rollout.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Use case</th><th>Who sends the money</th><th>Rule attached</th><th>Status</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Subhadra Yojana, Odisha</td><td>State government to women beneficiaries</td><td>Spend limited to specific purchases</td><td>88,000 beneficiaries paid in e-rupee (2024-25)</td></tr>
<tr><td>PDS food subsidy</td><td>Gujarat, Puducherry, Chandigarh</td><td>Redeemable only for eligible goods at fair price shops and designated merchants</td><td>Run in 2025-26; Gujarat from February 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tenant farmer credit (KCC)</td><td>Lending banks</td><td>Usable only for agricultural inputs</td><td>Piloted, described by RBI in 2024-25</td></tr>
<tr><td>Carbon credit payments</td><td>Programme sponsors to farmers</td><td>Funds tied to carbon credit generation</td><td>Piloted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fuel and meal allowances</td><td>Employers</td><td>Specific merchants or locations</td><td>Piloted</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tokenised certificates of deposit</td><td>Banks and investors</td><td>Settlement in wholesale CBDC on the Unified Markets Interface</td><td>Trial started 2025-26</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The Odisha case is the clearest example of a government using the rail at scale. Subhadra pays eligible women ₹10,000 a year for five years, and the state paid 88,000 of them in digital rupees under the pilot. The PDS pilots, reported by <a href="https://www.orissapost.com/rbi-expands-e-rupee-pilot-launches-tokenised-credit-deposit-trial/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OrissaPOST from the 2025-26 annual report</a>, are a stronger test of the "programmable" part, because the rule is narrow: food, at a specific class of shop.</p>

<h2>Agriculture: the strongest case for programmable money</h2>
<p>Subsidy fencing gets the attention. The more interesting idea is credit. Many tenant farmers cultivate land they do not own, so they cannot pledge a land title, and banks have long been reluctant to lend to them under the Kisan Credit Card. The Governor's argument at RBI@90 was simple: if loan money can only be spent on seeds, fertiliser and other inputs, a bank has more assurance that the loan funds a crop and not something else, and that can make it willing to lend without the title.</p>
<p>That is a credit-risk argument, and it is a good one. It does not depend on surveillance of the farmer's whole financial life, only on the narrow question of whether loan money reaches an input dealer. It also creates a natural end point: once the dealer is paid, the money is ordinary e-rupee in the dealer's wallet.</p>
<p>The practical hurdles are just as specific. Input dealers in rural blocks need to accept e-rupee, which means wallets, QR codes and a reason to bother. Connectivity is patchy in exactly the places where tenant farming is common, which is why the RBI tied programmability to offline functionality in the same announcement. We look at how that might work in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/">our explainer on offline CBDC payments</a>. And the rule has to be coded somewhere: a list of eligible merchant categories, kept current, with a route for a farmer to complain when a legitimate dealer is wrongly blocked.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Programmable money is most defensible when the rule protects a lender or a scheme, and least defensible when it simply second-guesses the person holding it.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: one welfare scheme, two kinds of plumbing</h2>
<p>Take Subhadra's published numbers. A beneficiary is entitled to ₹10,000 a year for five years, or ₹50,000 in total. If all 88,000 women paid in digital rupees received a full year's entitlement that way, the state would have pushed about ₹88 crore of e-rupee into wallets in a year (88,000 × ₹10,000). Set that against the ₹771.66 crore of retail e-rupee in circulation at end-March 2026 and one state scheme alone would be equal to roughly 11% of the whole stock. That is how small the pilot still is.</p>
<p>Now compare two ways of delivering the same ₹10,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Bank-account DBT.</b> The money lands as a deposit. It is fully fungible from the first second. The state can see that it was credited; it cannot see or control what it was used for. Leakage, if any, happens after credit and is invisible.</li>
<li><b>Programmable e-rupee.</b> The money lands as tokens with a rule. Suppose, purely as an illustration, a ₹5,000 instalment carries a rule that it can be spent only at registered merchants in the beneficiary's district. If she spends ₹3,200 at approved shops in the first month, the merchants receive ₹3,200 of unrestricted e-rupee and the remaining ₹1,800 stays conditional in her wallet.</li>
</ul>
<p>Two things fall out of the arithmetic. First, programmable welfare money is designed to move quickly to merchants, who are likely to convert it back to bank deposits. That pushes circulation down even as use rises. Second, every rule has a cost to the beneficiary if the list of approved shops is short. A ₹1,800 balance that cannot be spent at the nearest shop is worth less to her than ₹1,800 in a bank account. The design of the merchant list is the scheme.</p>
<p class="note">The Subhadra rule set used in this example is illustrative; Odisha has not published the exact conditions coded into its e-rupee payments.</p>

<h2>Why circulation fell while use cases grew</h2>
<p>A 24% fall in a year looks bad, and it should prompt questions. But circulation is a stock, not a flow. It measures what is sitting in wallets on one day. Several things can shrink it while the pilot is, in a narrow sense, working.</p>
<p>Some early activity was target-driven. The pilot had a stated goal of one million transactions a day by December 2023, and usage built to meet a target is not the same as balances people choose to keep. The e-rupee also sits in a separate wallet that competes with UPI, which was handling about 802 million payments a day by September 2026. For most people, a separate wallet with no interest and no merchant advantage is a harder sell than a UPI app linked to the account they already use. We compare the two in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">e-rupee vs UPI</a>.</p>
<p>And programmable money, as the worked example shows, is built to be spent. A scheme that pays ₹88 crore a year through e-rupee might leave only a sliver of that in wallets at any month end. If the RBI wants circulation to rise, it needs reasons for people to hold e-rupee. If it wants use to rise, it needs schemes and merchants. The 2025-26 numbers suggest it has chosen the second path, at least for now.</p>

<h2>The risks: coercion, fungibility and who writes the rules</h2>
<p>The objections to programmable money are not abstract. Restricted money can force spending a person would rather defer. Expiry dates, an idea sometimes floated for stimulus payments, are a tax on people who save. Rules can be changed. And the same plumbing that limits a subsidy to food can, in principle, limit anything. The Bank of England has said it will not pursue government or central bank-initiated programmable functions for a digital pound, which is a useful marker of how differently central banks read the same technology.</p>
<p>The RBI's concept note leans on "managed anonymity", with small payments more private and large ones traceable. That is a privacy design, not a programmability rule, and the two interact: a rule that restricts merchant category requires the system to know the merchant category of every restricted payment. We go deeper in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">the CBDC privacy debate</a>.</p>
<p>Our view is that the safeguards matter more than the technology. Rules should be tied to the law or scheme guideline that funds the transfer, published in plain language, and narrow. Restrictions should drop away once money reaches a merchant. Beneficiaries need a grievance route when a payment is wrongly declined. And the default for ordinary e-rupee, the kind a person buys with their own deposit, should be no rules at all.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>2026-27 pilot expansion.</b> The RBI says it will extend CBDC pilots to more DBT schemes, domestic retail and business applications during the financial year ending March 2027. Watch which central schemes sign up; that is where volumes would move. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">guide to direct benefit transfer</a> explains the scale involved.</li>
<li><b>The CAT sandbox.</b> The RBI plans a framework for testing products through a CBDC and Asset Tokenisation sandbox, which is where corporate allowance and supply-chain use cases are likely to be tried.</li>
<li><b>Cross-border pilots.</b> The bank signed a digital asset collaboration MoU with the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2025-26, held talks with the Central Bank of the UAE on a cross-border CBDC pilot, and joined BIS Innovation Hub work including Project Rialto and the second phase of Project Mandala.</li>
<li><b>End-May 2027.</b> The RBI Annual Report 2026-27 will give the next circulation figure and, ideally, transaction counts for the programmable pilots. If the RBI wants the public to judge programmability on its merits, publishing use-case-level numbers would help.</li>
</ul>
<p>For a plain-English primer on the instrument itself, start with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">the digital rupee explained</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Best Blockchain for Stablecoin Payments in 2026: Fees, Speed, Supply</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 26 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Networks</category><description>Ethereum, Tron, Solana, Base, Stellar and new payment chains like Tempo, Arc and Plasma compared on stablecoin supply, transfer fees and settlement speed.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Ask five payments engineers which blockchain is best for stablecoins and you will get five answers, each correct for a different job. A freelancer in Manila being paid by a client in Sydney cares about fees and whether her local exchange supports the network. A treasury team moving millions between subsidiaries cares about finality and audit trails. A card network cares about uptime. This guide compares the main options on the numbers that matter in 2026.</p>

<h2>Where the stablecoins actually are</h2>
<p>Liquidity is the first filter, because a cheap network is useless if nobody on the other side can receive or cash out on it. DefiLlama data cited on 25 September 2026 put Ethereum at about $145.9 billion of stablecoins, Tron at about $94.1 billion, Solana at a record $16.6 billion, BNB Chain at about $13.3 billion and Base at about $5.1 billion, according to <a href="https://solanacompass.com/news/solana-stablecoin-supply-hits-new-all-time-high-of-173b" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Solana Compass</a>. Together that is about 90% of all stablecoin supply, which you can see in context in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">2026 stablecoin market report</a>.</p>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$145.9B</b><span>stablecoins on Ethereum, September 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~$0.72</b><span>typical USDT transfer on Tron after its 2025 fee cut</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>&lt;$0.001</b><span>typical stablecoin transfer on Solana</span></div>
</div>

<h2>The comparison table</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Network</th><th>Stablecoin supply</th><th>Typical transfer fee</th><th>Speed</th><th>Best known for</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Ethereum</td><td>~$145.9B</td><td>$1 to $5, more when busy</td><td>12s blocks, ~13 min finality</td><td>Institutional USDC, DeFi depth</td></tr>
<tr><td>Tron</td><td>~$94.1B</td><td>~$0.72 per USDT send</td><td>Seconds</td><td>Retail USDT, emerging markets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Solana</td><td>~$16.6B</td><td>$0.0003 to $0.001</td><td>~2s confirm, ~13s finality</td><td>Fintech apps, Visa settlement</td></tr>
<tr><td>Base</td><td>~$5.1B</td><td>$0.01 to $0.05</td><td>2s blocks</td><td>Merchant checkout, consumer wallets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Arbitrum</td><td>a few $B</td><td>$0.05 to $0.20</td><td>Sub-second sequencing</td><td>DeFi, exchange withdrawals</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Fee and speed ranges for Ethereum, Solana, Base and Arbitrum are mid-2026 estimates from <a href="https://www.spark.money/tools/solana-vs-ethereum-for-stablecoins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spark's comparison</a>; they move with congestion and token prices. For layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum, the fast confirmation is from the network's sequencer, while final settlement back to Ethereum takes longer, though exchanges usually credit deposits within minutes.</p>

<h2>Ethereum and its layer-2s: the settlement layer</h2>
<p>Ethereum's share of stablecoins has fallen from above 90% in 2020 to around half, yet the dollar amount has grown many times over. It remains where large issuers mint first, where institutional funds hold balances and where DeFi liquidity is deepest. Its weakness is cost: a few dollars per transfer is fine for a $50,000 invoice and absurd for a $40 remittance.</p>
<p>Layer-2 networks fix most of that. Base, run by Coinbase, has become the default for consumer checkout; Shopify's USDC payments run on it. Arbitrum and Optimism carry a lot of exchange and DeFi traffic. All of them inherit Ethereum's security over time.</p>

<h2>Tron: the people's dollar rail</h2>
<p>Tron is the network most people in emerging markets actually use, almost entirely for USDT. It became the default because it was cheap and simple when Ethereum was neither. In August 2025 Tron's validators halved the price of the "energy" that transactions consume, cutting a typical USDT transfer from about $2.47 to roughly $0.72, as <a href="https://unchainedcrypto.com/tron-slashes-network-fees-by-60/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Unchained</a> reported. That is still far more than Solana, but Tron's real advantage is network effects: the exchange in Lagos, the OTC desk in Dubai and the shopkeeper's cousin all already accept it.</p>

<h2>Solana and Stellar: built for many small payments</h2>
<p>Solana charges fractions of a cent and confirms in about two seconds, which is why fintech apps and card programs like it. Visa settles USDC with US banks over Solana, and Western Union chose Solana for its planned USDPT stablecoin. Its stablecoin supply hit a record in September 2026.</p>
<p>Stellar is smaller by supply but was designed for payments from the start. Franklin Templeton's tokenised money fund records ownership on it and settles in five to seven seconds, and MoneyGram, which used USDC on Stellar for years, launched its own MGUSD stablecoin there in June 2026 for a customer base of more than 60 million. We cover it in depth in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stellar-payments-blockchain/">our Stellar explainer</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The best chain for a payment is usually the one the person at the other end can cash out on.</blockquote>

<h2>The new payment chains: Tempo, Arc and Plasma</h2>
<p>The biggest shift of the past year is the arrival of networks built specifically for stablecoins, often by companies that already move money at scale.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Tempo.</b> Incubated by Stripe and Paradigm, Tempo opened a public testnet in December 2025 with design partners including Mastercard, UBS and Kalshi, after raising a $500 million Series A. Its mainnet went live on 18 March 2026 alongside a Machine Payments Protocol aimed at AI agents paying each other. Klarna's KlarnaUSD stablecoin was slated to launch on it.</li>
  <li><b>Arc.</b> Circle's layer-1 opened its public mainnet on 16 September 2026. Fees are paid in USDC rather than a volatile token, finality is under a second, and the 11 founding validators include BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard and Visa, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-09-16-circle-launches-arc-mainnet-with-blackrock-and-visa-among-validators-mints-10-billion-arc-tokens-415250" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</li>
  <li><b>Plasma.</b> A Bitfinex-backed network, Plasma launched its mainnet beta in September 2025 with zero-fee USDT transfers and more than $2 billion of stablecoin liquidity on day one.</li>
</ul>
<p>The incumbents are hedging. Visa's settlement pilot expanded to nine chains in April 2026: Avalanche, Ethereum, Solana and Stellar, plus Arc, Base, Canton, Polygon and Tempo. The new Open USD stablecoin launched on Ethereum, Solana, Base and Tempo at once.</p>

<h2>So which is best?</h2>
<p>Our honest answer, by use case:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Small cross-border transfers into emerging markets:</b> Tron for USDT reach, Solana or Stellar where local partners support them.</li>
  <li><b>Online checkout and consumer apps:</b> Base and Solana, for low fees and wallet support.</li>
  <li><b>Large B2B and treasury movements:</b> Ethereum, or a payment chain like Arc or Tempo if your bank or processor is already there.</li>
</ul>
<p>The trend is toward users never having to choose. Circle's cross-chain transfer protocol settles in seconds between networks, and most payment apps now hide the chain entirely. The more the network fades into the background, the more the contest becomes about off-ramps, compliance and price, which is exactly where it should be. For the business side of this, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">our 2026 payments trends</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Fees and supply figures change constantly. Check a block explorer or your provider before sending large amounts.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Ripple in 2026: After the Lawsuit, RLUSD and a Buying Spree</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/ripple-in-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Networks</category><description>Ripple ended its SEC fight, launched RLUSD and bought into prime brokerage and corporate treasury. What its strategy means for cross-border payments.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-in-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">For most of the 2020s, Ripple was known mainly for a court case. That chapter closed in 2025. What's emerged since is a very different company: less about one token, more about owning the boring, profitable plumbing that moves money between businesses.</p>

<h2>The lawsuit is over</h2>
<p>The US securities regulator's case against Ripple, filed in 2020, ended in 2025 when both sides dropped their appeals. Whatever you thought of the case, its end removed the single biggest reason banks and payment companies hesitated to work with Ripple in the US.</p>

<h2>RLUSD: the stablecoin that ties it together</h2>
<p>Ripple launched its own dollar stablecoin, RLUSD, at the end of 2024. It's aimed squarely at institutions: banks, payment providers, brokers. By the end of September 2026 its supply had reached roughly $2.49 billion, up more than 86% in nine months, with about 56% on Ethereum and 44% on the XRP Ledger. Its reserves are held with a New York-chartered trust company, and it won approval in Japan this year.</p>
<p>That growth is modest next to USDT or USDC. But RLUSD isn't really competing for retail wallets. It's the settlement asset inside Ripple's own network.</p>

<h2>The acquisitions tell the story</h2>
<p>In 2025 Ripple went shopping. It bought Hidden Road, a prime brokerage; Rail, a stablecoin payments platform; and GTreasury, a corporate treasury software company, for about $1 billion. Put together, the strategy is clear:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Payments</b> to move money between companies and countries.</li>
  <li><b>Treasury</b> software where big companies already manage their cash.</li>
  <li><b>Brokerage</b> to provide liquidity and credit to institutions.</li>
  <li><b>A stablecoin</b> running underneath all three.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ripple wants to be where a CFO already works, then offer stablecoin settlement as a better option for cross-border flows.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Ripple's bet is simple: the biggest stablecoin opportunity isn't in wallets. It's inside corporate treasury.</blockquote>

<h2>What about XRP?</h2>
<p>XRP still exists and still has a passionate community, and the XRP Ledger remains a fast, cheap network with a built-in exchange. But in 2026 Ripple talks far more about RLUSD, payments and custody than about the token. For businesses that's good news: they can use the rails without needing a view on any token's price.</p>

<h2>What it means for cross-border payments</h2>
<p>Ripple's moves make life easier for anyone building on stablecoin rails. More licensed payout partners, more liquidity in more currencies, more institutions comfortable holding digital dollars. Its stated focus markets for 2026 include the UAE, Nigeria and Turkey, all large remittance and trade corridors.</p>
<p>For households, the effect is indirect but real. Every time a big, regulated player builds payout routes into a new country, the cost of getting money there on stablecoin rails falls a little, and that's money that stays with families instead of disappearing into the pipes.</p>
<p>We don't think one network will win everything. Ripple, Stellar and the big general-purpose chains are each strong in different places. The products that win will be the ones that use all of them without asking the user to care.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ripple-in-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>FedNow and RTP in 2026: Why US Instant Payments Are Slow to Catch On</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>FedNow settled $274.7 billion in Q2 2026 and RTP moved $1.3 trillion in 2025, yet ACH still dominates. Why US instant payments remain a business tool.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The United States now has two instant payment networks, a $10 million limit on both, and more than a thousand banks connected to each. In the second quarter of 2026 the Federal Reserve's FedNow service settled about 5 million payments. India's UPI does that in under ten minutes. The comparison is unfair in some ways, but it captures the puzzle: the pipes are built, and Americans still mostly wait for ACH.</p>

<h2>Two networks, two owners</h2>
<p>The RTP network came first. The Clearing House, owned by the largest US banks, launched it in 2017. FedNow arrived in July 2023, run by the Federal Reserve and open to every bank and credit union that holds a Fed account. Both settle in seconds, around the clock, every day of the year. Both now carry a per-transaction ceiling of $10 million: RTP raised its cap from $1 million in February 2025, and FedNow followed in November 2025.</p>
<p>Neither network sells to consumers. They sit behind banks, payroll firms and payment companies, which decide whether to offer instant transfers at all. That middleman layer is the single biggest reason adoption looks the way it does.</p>

<h2>The growth is real</h2>
<p>Look at the trend lines and the story is healthy. The Fed's <a href="https://frbservices.org/resources/financial-services/fednow/quarterly-volume-value-stats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarterly statistics</a> show FedNow settling 97,424 payments in the first quarter of 2024 and 4,997,811 in the second quarter of 2026. Value went from $31 million to $274.7 billion over the same period. Across 2025, FedNow moved $853.4 billion, connected about 1,600 institutions and averaged almost 30,000 payments a day, <a href="https://www.paymentsjournal.com/with-more-institutions-on-board-fednow-notches-volume-and-value-gains" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PaymentsJournal reported</a>.</p>
<p>RTP is bigger. It processed more than $1.3 trillion in 2025 with roughly 1,135 participating institutions. On 1 May 2026 it set a single-day record of 2.27 million transactions worth $8.62 billion, and monthly value had climbed from $28 billion in January 2025 to $195 billion in April 2026, according to <a href="https://www.digitaltransactions.net/?p=1333477" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Transactions</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$274.7B</b><span>FedNow value, Q2 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.3T</b><span>RTP value in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>35.2B</b><span>ACH payments in 2025</span></div></div>

<h2>Look at the average payment</h2>
<p>The most revealing figure is the size of a typical transfer. In 2025 the average FedNow payment was about $101,435. In the first quarter of 2026 it was $99,414. In the second quarter it fell to $54,957 as volume nearly doubled, which suggests smaller payments are starting to arrive, but these are still not grocery-sized numbers. RTP's average in 2024 was $719, much closer to everyday life, but its value surge since then has been driven by corporate treasury moves and large time-sensitive transfers.</p>
<p>In other words, US instant rails are being used first as a cheaper, always-open alternative to wire transfers. A property company settling a closing on a Saturday, a corporate treasurer sweeping cash between banks at night, a payroll provider paying gig workers on demand. Those are valuable use cases. They are not the mass consumer habit that Pix built in Brazil or UPI built in India.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">America built instant rails for businesses first and is waiting for consumers to find them.</blockquote>

<h2>Why consumers have not shown up</h2>
<p><b>ACH is good enough for most bills.</b> Nacha reports that the ACH network carried 35.2 billion payments worth $93 trillion in 2025, and Same Day ACH alone handled 1.4 billion payments worth $3.9 trillion, up 16.7% in volume, according to <a href="https://www.nacha.org/news/same-day-ach-and-business-business-payments-propel-ach-network-volume-growth-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nacha</a>. For a utility bill due in ten days, same-day settlement is plenty. Instant only matters when timing is tight.</p>
<p><b>Cards and wallets already feel instant.</b> A customer tapping a card at a store sees an immediate approval and earns rewards. The merchant waits days for settlement and pays fees, but the customer does not feel that. Peer-to-peer apps already show money arriving instantly, even when the underlying settlement is slower.</p>
<p><b>There is no front door.</b> Pix and UPI succeeded partly because the central bank or national operator set rules that made every bank offer the same QR codes and addresses under one recognisable brand. FedNow and RTP have no consumer brand, no shared QR standard and no rule forcing banks to send, not just receive. Many smaller institutions joined on the receiving side first because it is cheaper and lower risk.</p>
<p><b>Fraud fear.</b> Instant and irrevocable is a scammer's dream. Banks remember what authorised push payment fraud did in the UK, and many keep low default limits on consumer instant transfers. That caution is reasonable, but it also keeps volumes small. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> explains why.</p>
<p><b>Fragmentation.</b> Two networks that do not fully interoperate mean a bank on FedNow cannot always reach a bank only on RTP. Some institutions join both, many join one. That creates gaps a consumer cannot see but a product team has to work around.</p>

<h2>What could change the curve</h2>
<p>Three developments are worth watching. First, request for payment: if billers can send a request that the customer approves in a banking app and settles instantly, instant rails could start to eat card-on-file and ACH debit for <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-americans-pay-bills/">household bills</a>. Second, payroll and earned wage access, where speed has an obvious value for the worker. Third, tax refunds: RTP said refund payments through its network rose 78% in the first four months of 2026, a sign that government and tax-preparer disbursements can pull consumers onto the rails without any marketing campaign.</p>
<p>A fourth, less certain driver is competition from stablecoins. US dollar tokens already offer 24/7 settlement for businesses that hold them, and the GENIUS Act gave them a clearer legal footing. If banks see deposits leaking toward <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">regulated stablecoins</a>, offering instant bank transfers becomes a defensive necessity rather than a nice extra.</p>

<h2>Our read</h2>
<p>US instant payments are not failing. They are following a different path from Brazil and India: business first, consumer later, and no mandate to speed things up. The numbers are doubling, the limits now cover almost any commercial payment, and both networks are past a thousand participants. What is missing is a reason for an ordinary customer to care. Until a bank app makes instant the default and a recognisable button sits on every bill, ACH will keep winning by being familiar.</p>
<p class="note">FedNow figures cover settled customer credit transfers only, as published by the Federal Reserve. RTP figures are as reported by The Clearing House via trade press.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Corporate Treasury and Stablecoins: Accounting, Banks and Risk in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/corporate-treasury-and-stablecoins/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/corporate-treasury-and-stablecoins/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>Can a company hold USDC as cash? FASB&#x27;s August 2026 proposal, ASU 2023-08&#x27;s scope, GENIUS Act limits, bank access and the treasury risk policy that follows.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/corporate-treasury-and-stablecoins.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The treasurer of a mid-sized freight forwarder in Rotterdam gets a simple question from her CFO: a Brazilian customer wants to pay $2 million in USDC, so can they just hold it for a few weeks until the next supplier run? The operational answer takes ten minutes. The accounting answer, until very recently, took a technical memo, a call with the auditor and a shrug. Is a dollar stablecoin cash, an investment, or something else? On 18 August 2026 the US Financial Accounting Standards Board published a proposal that finally starts to answer, and it turns on details most treasury teams have never had to think about.</p>

<h2>Why treasurers suddenly care</h2>
<p>For most companies, stablecoins arrive from the outside: a customer wants to pay in them, a marketplace settles in them, or a subsidiary in a dollar-short market has been receiving them informally. The scale of the instrument makes it hard to ignore. Total stablecoin supply was about $306 billion as of October 2026, and genuine stablecoin payments reached roughly $390 billion in 2025, according to McKinsey and Artemis estimates.</p>
<p>Corporate use is still early. In an <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/financial-services/cost-savings-and-speed-drive-stablecoin-adoption" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EY-Parthenon survey of 350 firms</a> conducted in June 2025, 9% of corporates and 23% of financial institutions said they used stablecoins. Only 8% of corporates accepted them as payment. Among current users, 41% reported savings of at least 10%, mostly on dollar cross-border B2B payments. The striking number for treasury is a different one: 79% of corporates converted stablecoins to fiat immediately after a transaction. Companies are using stablecoins as a rail, not yet as a place to keep money.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>9%</b><span>of corporates using stablecoins, mid-2025 (EY-Parthenon)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>79%</b><span>convert to fiat immediately after receipt</span></div><div class="stat"><b>38%</b><span>cite accounting and tax clarity as a barrier</span></div></div>
<p>The reason is not mysterious. Regulatory uncertainty was the top concern at 73%, with accounting and tax treatment second at 38%. If you cannot tell your board whether an asset counts as cash, you do not hold it overnight.</p>

<h2>The accounting gap: ASU 2023-08 does not cover most stablecoins</h2>
<p>US GAAP got its first crypto-specific standard in December 2023, ASU 2023-08, which requires qualifying crypto assets to be measured at fair value through net income. That fixed the old problem of bitcoin being carried as an impaired intangible. It did not fix stablecoins.</p>
<p>The standard's scope has six criteria, one of which is that the token must not give the holder enforceable rights to underlying goods, services or other assets. As Indiana University's Vivian Fang explained in <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/stablecoin-accounting-treatment-requires-more-than-semantics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg Tax in October 2025</a>, reserve-backed redemption rights are exactly such a claim, so many stablecoins fall outside ASU 2023-08. Falling outside does not make them cash. Companies have instead had to apply other guidance, and practice has varied.</p>
<p>The cash-equivalent test in ASC 230 asks for short-term, highly liquid investments readily convertible to known amounts of cash and so near maturity that rate risk is insignificant. A stablecoin has no maturity date at all, which is why auditors have hesitated.</p>

<h2>FASB's August 2026 proposal: three attributes</h2>
<p>FASB added a digital assets project to its agenda in 2025, after the GENIUS Act became law in July of that year, and on 18 August 2026 it issued a proposed update to Topic 230. Deloitte's <a href="https://dart.deloitte.com/USDART/home/publications/deloitte/heads-up/2026/fasb-proposes-enhancements-disclosures-cash-equivalents-clarifications-evaluation-certain-digital-as" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heads Up summary</a> sets out what it does and does not do. The definition of a cash equivalent would not change. Instead, FASB adds illustrative examples built around three attributes, considered together:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>An on-demand contractual right to redeem for cash</b> at the holder's election, without significant fees.</li>
<li><b>A direct redemption right against the issuer</b>, rather than having to rely on an exchange or market maker to get known amounts of cash.</li>
<li><b>Segregated reserves</b> of short-term, highly liquid assets held at least one-for-one against tokens in circulation.</li>
</ol>
<p>Classification would be a policy election, not a requirement. A token backed by crypto assets or gold fails, per one of the proposal's cases. And every entity presenting cash equivalents would have to disclose the significant components each year, whether those are Treasury bills, money market funds or stablecoins. Comments are due by 19 November 2026; the effective date is not yet set, and early adoption would be permitted.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The proposal makes the relationship with the issuer, not the token, the thing auditors will test.</blockquote>
<p>The second attribute is the one that will catch companies out. A business that receives USDC from a customer and holds it in a self-custodied wallet, with no account at the issuer, may not have a direct redemption right at all. To get dollars it must sell through an exchange or OTC desk. Under the proposal's logic, the same token could be a cash equivalent in one company's books and not in another's.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Holding</th><th>US GAAP today</th><th>Under FASB's August 2026 proposal</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Bitcoin or ether</td><td>ASU 2023-08: fair value through net income</td><td>Unchanged</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fiat-backed stablecoin, company has direct issuer redemption account</td><td>Outside ASU 2023-08; treatment varies</td><td>Could be presented as a cash equivalent if all three attributes are met, by policy election</td></tr>
<tr><td>Same stablecoin held without an issuer relationship</td><td>Outside ASU 2023-08; treatment varies</td><td>Likely fails the direct-redemption attribute</td></tr>
<tr><td>Token backed by crypto or gold</td><td>Depends on rights and structure</td><td>Not a cash equivalent per illustrative case</td></tr>
<tr><td>Stablecoin from a non-permitted issuer, once GENIUS Act is effective</td><td>Treatment varies</td><td>Act generally bars treating it as cash or cash equivalent</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h3>And under IFRS?</h3>
<p>International standards have no stablecoin-specific guidance. The IFRS Interpretations Committee concluded in 2019 that cryptocurrency holdings are not cash and generally fall under intangible assets or inventory. A May 2026 IASB <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/meetings/2026/may/iasb/ap17d-implications-project-direction.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">staff paper on intangible assets</a> notes strong stakeholder support for better treatment of crypto, with cryptoassets added to the list of potential projects, but no decisions and no timetable for a stablecoin answer. Groups reporting under IFRS should expect to wait longer than US filers. A qualified accountant should confirm the treatment for any specific holding.</p>

<h2>The GENIUS Act draws a line around issuers</h2>
<p>The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, creates the federal framework for payment stablecoins: licensed issuers, one-for-one reserves in cash and short-term Treasuries, monthly reserve reports, no interest paid to holders and priority claims for holders in an issuer's insolvency. For treasury, its most important feature is the one Deloitte flags: once effective, the Act generally prohibits treating a payment stablecoin from a non-permitted issuer as cash or a cash equivalent. It takes effect at the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final implementing rules, which puts the outside date in January 2027.</p>
<p>That gives treasurers a clean policy rule: approved issuers are permitted issuers, full stop. It also means the largest stablecoin by supply, USDT at about $184 billion, sits in a different category for US-reporting companies unless its issuer's US arrangements change. Our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS and MiCA</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act implementation</a> follow the rule-writing.</p>

<h2>Banking access: better, still uneven</h2>
<p>Holding stablecoins is useless if your bank will not touch the fiat leg. On 7 March 2025 the OCC issued Interpretive Letter 1183, confirming that national banks may provide crypto custody, hold deposits that back stablecoins and engage in certain stablecoin payment activities without first seeking supervisory non-objection, as <a href="https://www.sullcrom.com/insights/memo/2025/March/OCC-Clarifies-Permissible-Crypto-Asset-Activities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sullivan &amp; Cromwell summarised</a>. At the time the FDIC and Federal Reserve had not matched it, so what a bank will do still depends partly on its regulator.</p>
<p>In practice, a treasury that wants to hold stablecoins needs three things lined up: a bank that will receive wires from the issuer or an exchange without freezing them for review, a custodian or wallet setup that internal audit will sign off, and ideally a direct issuer account so that redemption at par does not depend on a third party. Many companies still route through a specialist payments partner instead. EY's survey found 56% of corporates prefer embedded APIs in existing treasury platforms and 70% would be more inclined to adopt with ERP integration.</p>

<h2>Risk policy: what March 2023 taught</h2>
<p>The case every treasury committee should study is the weekend Silicon Valley Bank failed. Circle disclosed that $3.3 billion of USDC reserves, nearly 8% of about $40 billion, sat at SVB; USDC fell below 87 cents on secondary markets, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/11/stablecoin-usdc-breaks-dollar-peg-after-firm-reveals-it-has-3point3-billion-in-svb-exposure.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNBC reported</a>, before recovering once US authorities backstopped SVB depositors. A token can be fully reserved and still trade well below par when its reserves are temporarily inaccessible. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">history of depegs</a> covers the other episodes.</p>
<p>A sensible stablecoin treasury policy borrows from money market fund policy and adds crypto-specific controls:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Approved issuers only</b>, tied to legal status (GENIUS-permitted or MiCA-authorised) and published reserve reports.</li>
<li><b>Concentration limits</b> per issuer and a maximum share of operating liquidity in stablecoins.</li>
<li><b>Holding-period caps</b>, for example a rule that receipts are converted within a set number of business days unless a payment out is scheduled.</li>
<li><b>Custody standards</b>: multi-approval wallets, whitelisted addresses and segregation of duties, covered in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">self-custody and custodial wallets</a>.</li>
<li><b>Chain and contract risk</b>: which blockchains are approved, and how sanctioned-address screening is done.</li>
<li><b>Redemption drills</b>: periodically redeem a small amount to prove the route works.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Worked example: the $2 million USDC receipt</h2>
<p>Return to Rotterdam. The figures for yield and spread below are illustrative assumptions, not market quotes. The company receives 2,000,000 USDC and needs the dollars in 21 days.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Hold as USDC.</b> No yield, since GENIUS-compliant issuers cannot pay holders interest. If the company had instead parked $2 million in a money market fund at an assumed 4% annual yield, it would have earned about $4,600 over 21 days ($2,000,000 x 4% x 21/365). That is the opportunity cost.</li>
<li><b>Tail risk.</b> In a repeat of March 2023, a 13% secondary-market discount would show a temporary mark of about $260,000 if the company had to sell that weekend. With a direct issuer redemption account, it could wait for par; without one, it is exposed to the market price.</li>
<li><b>Convert immediately.</b> If an OTC desk or payments partner converts at an assumed all-in 0.10%, the cost is $2,000. The company then holds dollars in a bank account it already understands.</li>
</ul>
<p>Unless the company expects to pay suppliers in USDC within days, converting is usually cheaper and simpler, which is exactly what most corporates in the EY sample did. The calculation changes for firms paying stablecoin-accepting suppliers, where holding avoids two conversions. Firms should take advice from their auditor and a qualified adviser before setting policy.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>19 November 2026:</b> comment deadline on FASB's Topic 230 proposal. Watch whether the direct-redemption attribute is softened for holders using regulated intermediaries.</li>
<li><b>By 18 January 2027:</b> the latest date the GENIUS Act takes effect, if final rules are not finished sooner, bringing the bar on non-permitted issuers into force for cash classification.</li>
<li><b>Bank regulators:</b> whether the FDIC and Federal Reserve align with the OCC on stablecoin activities, which would widen corporate banking access.</li>
<li><b>Tokenised deposits:</b> bank-issued alternatives, discussed in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">comparison of stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised deposits</a>, may give treasurers on-chain dollars that are already deposits on the balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
<p>The shift in 2026 is that the stablecoin question has moved from "is this allowed?" to "is this cash?". For treasurers, the answer will depend less on the token than on the paperwork behind it: who issued it, under which law, and whether the company can walk up to the issuer and get its dollars back.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/corporate-treasury-and-stablecoins.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Instant Payments Around the World: UPI, Pix, FedNow, SEPA Compared</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>UPI handles 802M payments a day, Pix set records and FedNow is still tiny. We compare instant payment systems worldwide with volumes, launch dates and use.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/instant-payments-around-the-world.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A coconut seller on Boa Viagem beach in Recife does not carry a card machine. She has a laminated QR code taped to her cooler, and almost every customer pays by Pix. On Friday 6 June 2025, Brazil's instant payment system processed nearly 280 million transactions in a single day, moving about R$135.6 billion, according to the central bank figures <a href="https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/radioagencia-nacional/economia/audio/2025-06/pix-bate-recorde-e-registra-quase-280-milhoes-de-transacoes-em-um-dia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Agencia Brasil</a>. India's UPI now does roughly three times that every day. The United States' FedNow, meanwhile, settled about 5 million payments in the whole of the second quarter of 2026.</p>

<p>All three are instant payment systems. They move money between bank accounts in seconds, around the clock. Yet their usage differs by a factor of thousands. This piece compares the main systems, explains why design and policy matter more than technology, and sets out what comes next as countries start linking them across borders.</p>

<p>The BIS says that in more than 70 countries, domestic instant payments now settle in seconds. ACI Worldwide's most recent <a href="https://www.aciworldwide.com/real-time-payments-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prime Time for Real-Time report</a> counted 266.2 billion real-time transactions globally in 2023, up 42.2 percent on the year, equal to 19.1 percent of all electronic transactions. It projects about 575 billion by 2028, when real-time would exceed a quarter of electronic payments.</p>

<p>That headline growth is heavily concentrated. A handful of national systems, led by India and Brazil, account for most of the world's instant payment volume. In many rich economies, by contrast, instant rails exist but remain a minority choice.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>802M</b><span>UPI payments per day, September 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>25%</b><span>Share of euro area credit transfers that were instant, H2 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>5.0M</b><span>FedNow payments settled in Q2 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>Five systems side by side</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>System</th><th>Market</th><th>Latest usage figure</th><th>Typical use</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>UPI</td><td>India</td><td>About 802 million payments a day (Sep 2026)</td><td>Everyday retail, person to person, QR at merchants</td></tr>
<tr><td>Pix</td><td>Brazil</td><td>Nearly 280 million on a record day (Jun 2025); 175 million users</td><td>Retail, P2P, salaries, bills</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEPA Instant (SCT Inst)</td><td>Euro area</td><td>25% of credit transfers by number, 8% by value (H2 2025)</td><td>Smaller account transfers, rising after EU mandate</td></tr>
<tr><td>FedNow</td><td>United States</td><td>5.0 million payments, $274.7 billion in Q2 2026</td><td>High-value business and account funding transfers</td></tr>
<tr><td>PromptPay</td><td>Thailand</td><td>Running since 2016; free up to 5,000 baht</td><td>Mobile and phone-number transfers</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The numbers are not perfectly comparable. Some are daily averages, some are record days, some are quarterly totals. But the orders of magnitude are clear, and they tell a story about how each system was built.</p>

<h2>India and Brazil: the central bank as product manager</h2>

<p>UPI and Pix share three features. They are free or nearly free to consumers. They work through a single national QR standard that any bank or app must accept. And the public authority pushed hard on adoption, with the central bank in Brazil and the NPCI and RBI in India acting less like referees and more like product owners.</p>

<p>Pix had over 175 million users by the end of May 2025, including 160 million individuals, in a country of about 210 million. Brazil's prior daily record of 252.1 million transactions came on 20 December 2024, the day many employers paid the second instalment of the 13th-month salary. That detail matters. Pix is not just a way to split a restaurant bill; it has become payroll infrastructure. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix and Drex explainer</a> covers how it was designed.</p>

<p>UPI's scale is harder to grasp. At about 802 million transactions a day in September 2026, it processes roughly 557,000 payments every minute. Read more in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI explained</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Instant rails succeed when someone is made responsible for adoption, not just for settlement.</blockquote>

<h2>Europe: the regulator steps in</h2>

<p>Europe launched SEPA Instant Credit Transfer in November 2017. According to the <a href="https://www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/what-we-do/sepa-instant-credit-transfer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">European Payments Council</a>, a transfer must complete within nine seconds. For years, though, banks treated it as a premium service, and uptake was slow.</p>

<p>The EU's Instant Payments Regulation changed the incentives. Eurozone credit institutions have had to meet its requirements since 9 October 2025. The effect is showing up. The <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/stats/paysec/html/ecb.pis2025h2~23986fb4a6.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ECB's payment statistics</a> for the second half of 2025 show that instant transfers made up 25 percent of the number and 8 percent of the value of credit transfers processed by euro area retail systems. Cards still dominate overall, at 57 percent of all non-cash transactions. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/sepa-instant-payments-regulation/">guide to the SEPA instant regulation</a> explains the rules in detail.</p>

<h2>The United States: built, not yet adopted</h2>

<p>FedNow shows what happens when a central bank builds the rail but leaves adoption to the market. The Federal Reserve's <a href="https://www.frbservices.org/resources/financial-services/fednow/quarterly-volume-value-stats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarterly statistics</a> show 4,997,811 settled payments in Q2 2026, worth about $274.7 billion. That is up 83 percent on a year earlier, which sounds impressive until you set it against India.</p>

<p>The average FedNow payment in Q2 2026 was about $54,957. This is not a coffee-and-rent system. It is used mostly by businesses and institutions moving large sums, often to fund accounts or settle obligations quickly. The private RTP network run by The Clearing House operates alongside it, and consumers mostly use card-linked apps that sit on older rails. For the full US picture, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/">FedNow and RTP explained</a>.</p>

<h2>A worked example: putting volumes on one clock</h2>

<p>It helps to put the figures on a single timescale.</p>

<ol>
<li>UPI processes about 802 million payments a day. Divided by 1,440 minutes, that is about 557,000 a minute.</li>
<li>FedNow settled about 5.0 million payments across the 91 days of Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Divide 5.0 million by 557,000 and you get about 9. In other words, UPI processes a full quarter of FedNow volume in roughly nine minutes.</li>
<li>Now look at value. Pix's record day averaged about R$484 per transaction (R$135.6 billion over roughly 280 million payments). FedNow averaged nearly $55,000. Euro area instant transfers were a quarter of credit transfers by number but only 8 percent by value.</li>
</ol>

<p>The lesson is that instant systems are serving very different jobs. In India and Brazil, they replaced cash for everyday payments. In Europe, they are replacing slower account transfers, mostly small ones. In the US, they are a faster pipe for business treasury flows. Judging FedNow by UPI's standard misses that it was never asked to do UPI's job.</p>

<h2>Five design choices that decide adoption</h2>

<p>Looking across these systems, the technology is broadly similar. Messages move between banks, a central operator settles, and the recipient's account is credited within seconds. What differs is a short list of choices made by policymakers, and they explain most of the gap in usage.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Price to the consumer.</b> UPI and Pix are free for individuals. Thailand made PromptPay transfers up to 5,000 baht free. Where banks charged for instant transfers, as many in Europe did before the regulation, people kept using the slow, free option.</li>
<li><b>Mandatory participation.</b> When every bank must join and must accept incoming instant payments, a sender never has to wonder whether a transfer will work. Voluntary systems, such as FedNow, grow only as fast as the slowest banks decide to sign up.</li>
<li><b>A shared front end.</b> A single national QR code and simple aliases, such as a phone number or a virtual address, let small merchants accept payments without a terminal. That turned the Recife coconut stall into a digital merchant.</li>
<li><b>Room for non-bank apps.</b> UPI's growth came largely through third-party apps that built consumer products on top of the rail. Systems that keep the interface inside bank apps tend to grow slower.</li>
<li><b>A reason to switch.</b> Card rewards are a powerful habit in the US. In India and Brazil, the alternative to instant payments was often cash, and cash has no loyalty points.</li>
</ul>

<p>None of these choices is free. Zero pricing means someone else pays for the infrastructure, usually banks or the state. That is why the business model of UPI remains a live debate in India even as volumes hit records.</p>

<h2>The risk side: fraud moves at the speed of the rail</h2>

<p>Every instant system inherits a fraud problem. A payment that settles in seconds and cannot be reversed is ideal for a scammer who has persuaded a victim to send money. The UK, an early mover with Faster Payments, now requires banks to reimburse most scam victims and splits the cost between sending and receiving banks. We look at that model, and the role AI now plays in scams, in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ai-fraud-in-payments/">AI fraud in payments</a>. Any country scaling an instant rail without a liability framework is, in effect, subsidising fraud.</p>

<h2>Cross-border: linking the national rails</h2>

<p>The next phase is connecting systems across borders. Bilateral links already exist across Asia, including UPI connections abroad and links involving Thailand's PromptPay. The multilateral version is Project Nexus. According to the <a href="https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/fmis/nexus.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS</a>, the central banks of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand incorporated Nexus Global Payments in 2025 to take the scheme into live operation, and the BIS has handed the project over to it. Instead of building dozens of bilateral links, each system connects once to a shared hub.</p>

<p>If it works, a sender in Singapore could pay a recipient in India in roughly the time it takes to send a domestic transfer, with the FX rate shown upfront. That would put real pressure on the cost of remittances in Asia's busiest corridors. More in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Monthly NPCI data:</b> whether UPI's daily average holds above 800 million through the October-November festival season.</li>
<li><b>October 2026:</b> FedNow Q3 2026 statistics from the Federal Reserve, the first test of whether the Q2 jump was a one-off.</li>
<li><b>January 2027:</b> the ECB's payment statistics for the first half of 2026, showing the first full half-year after the EU instant payment mandate took effect for eurozone banks.</li>
<li><b>2026-2027:</b> Nexus Global Payments' first live connections between member systems.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> Pix's next record days, which tend to fall on salary dates and the December 13th-month payment.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/instant-payments-around-the-world.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Digital Euro Explained: Holding Limits, Privacy and the Road to 2029</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>The digital euro after the July 2026 Parliament vote: holding limits, offline privacy, merchant fees, build costs and the ECB&#x27;s 2027 pilot and 2029 target.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-euro-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">A retired teacher in Lisbon still pays at the market with coins. Her grandson in Munich has not touched a banknote in months, and every tap of his phone runs through a card network headquartered in the United States. The digital euro is Europe's attempt to give both of them a public, euro-native way to pay, and in 2026 it finally moved from theory into legislation.</p>

<h2>Where things stand</h2>
<p>The European Central Bank's Governing Council decided on 29 October 2025 to close the preparation phase and move into the next stage, focused on building technical capacity and getting ready for pilot transactions, as reported by <a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-digital-euro-launch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechRepublic</a>. The ECB's target is to be ready for possible issuance in 2029, but only if EU law is in place.</p>
<p>That law moved forward in two steps this summer. The Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee backed its position on 23 June 2026 by 43 votes to 14, with one abstention. Then, after three groups forced a plenary vote, MEPs approved the negotiating mandate on 9 July 2026 by 416 to 169, with 22 abstentions, according to <a href="https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/07/parliament-clears-digital-euro-talks-after-right-wing-groups-force-a-vote/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brussels Signal</a>. Talks with the Council, which has already adopted its position, aim for a deal by the end of 2026.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>416-169</b><span>Parliament plenary vote to open negotiations, July 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>€1.3B</b><span>estimated cost to build the digital euro infrastructure</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>2029</b><span>earliest ECB target for first issuance</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Why Europe wants one</h2>
<p>The argument that keeps coming back is sovereignty. ECB figures cited in the Parliament debate show Visa and Mastercard handling 61% of card payments in the euro area and nearly all cross-border card transactions. As cash use falls, that share of everyday spending running through non-European networks grows. A digital euro would give Europe a payment option that works across all euro countries, built and governed at home.</p>
<p>There is a resilience argument too. If a card network or a large processor goes down, as happens from time to time, a public option that also works offline gives shops and customers a fallback that does not depend on one private company.</p>
<p>The second argument is about cash itself. The same legislative package strengthens the legal status of banknotes and coins and would require member states to keep cash accessible. The pitch is a pairing, not a replacement.</p>

<h2>Holding limits: the real fight</h2>
<p>The question that has slowed everything is how much digital euro one person can hold. Banks fear that if people can move unlimited savings into central bank money, deposits will drain away, especially in a crisis. So there will be a cap.</p>
<p>The European Commission would set the individual limit after ECB advice and review it regularly. No figure is in the law yet. ECB analysis has found that limits of up to €3,000 per person would not threaten financial stability even in extreme scenarios, and Eurogroup finance ministers agreed in September 2025 on how the limits should be governed. Businesses would generally not be allowed to hold large balances, but could keep incoming payments for up to 24 hours. The digital euro would pay no interest and charge none, so it is a way to pay, not a place to save.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The holding limit is where monetary policy meets the kitchen table.</blockquote>

<h2>Privacy and offline payments</h2>
<p>Privacy is the issue most voters raise. The draft framework, as summarised by <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/07/288574-european-parliament-committee-clears-path-for-digital-euro-by-2029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>, follows privacy by design and by default. The ECB would not see who is paying whom; identifying data stays with the bank or provider that runs the wallet.</p>
<p>Offline payments go further. They would run device to device using secure local storage, with no internet connection, and are meant to offer something close to the privacy of handing over cash. They would also be free.</p>
<p>There was a moment this year when the whole design nearly shrank to offline only. The lead rapporteur, Fernando Navarrete, had pushed that idea before dropping it in March 2026, <a href="https://euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/27/eu-parliament-unblocks-key-political-hurdle-in-digital-euro-negotiations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Euronews reported</a>, clearing the way for a version that works both online and offline.</p>

<h2>What it costs, and who pays</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Users:</b> basic services such as opening a wallet, holding funds and paying would be free.</li>
  <li><b>Merchants:</b> most would have to accept it, with exemptions for very small businesses that take no other electronic payments. Fees would be capped and should not exceed what retailers pay for comparable electronic methods.</li>
  <li><b>The Eurosystem:</b> roughly €1.3 billion to build the infrastructure and about €320 million a year to run it after launch.</li>
  <li><b>Banks:</b> estimated investment of €4 billion to €5.8 billion across the sector.</li>
</ul>
<p>Distribution would run through banks, e-money firms, post offices and certain regulated crypto-asset service providers.</p>

<h2>What changes at the till</h2>
<p>For a café owner in Lyon or a bakery in Valencia, the most important line in the draft is that merchant fees should not exceed what they pay for comparable electronic payments, with caps in place. Card acceptance is one of the larger costs for small European retailers, and they have little bargaining power with the international schemes. A public alternative with capped fees gives them leverage, even if most customers keep using cards.</p>
<p>Acceptance would be compulsory for most businesses, which is how a new payment method avoids the chicken-and-egg problem of shops waiting for customers and customers waiting for shops. The exemption for micro-businesses that accept no other electronic payment protects the market stall that only takes cash.</p>

<h2>The timeline</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>End of 2026:</b> target for a political deal between Parliament, Council and Commission.</li>
  <li><b>Mid-2027:</b> earliest start of pilot transactions with payment providers and merchants.</li>
  <li><b>At least 24 months:</b> rollout period for banks, merchants and the public once the law is in force.</li>
  <li><b>2029:</b> the ECB's stated target for first issuance.</li>
</ol>

<h2>Our take</h2>
<p>We think the digital euro's success will depend less on technology and more on whether it feels useful on an ordinary Tuesday. A free, euro-wide payment option that works offline is a real improvement for travellers, small shops and anyone without a credit card. A capped balance with no interest is unlikely to excite savers, and it is not meant to. For a broader comparison with other forms of digital money, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins vs CBDCs vs tokenised deposits</a>, and for Europe's crypto rules, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our MiCA explainer</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-euro-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stellar: The Quiet Payments Blockchain, and Why 2026 Was Its Year</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stellar-payments-blockchain/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stellar-payments-blockchain/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Networks</category><description>Stellar moved $11.4B in stablecoins in one quarter and MoneyGram launched a digital dollar on it. Why a payments-first blockchain matters for remittance.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stellar-payments-blockchain.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Most blockchains want to be everything: a casino, a computer, an art gallery and a bank. Stellar has spent more than a decade wanting to be one thing, a way to move money across borders cheaply. For a long time that sounded unambitious. In 2026 it looks like good timing.</p>

<h2>Built for one job</h2>
<p>Stellar was created in 2014 with remittances and financial inclusion in mind. It's designed around assets issued by real institutions, such as dollars, euros or tokenised funds, and around "anchors": licensed companies that let people move between local currency and the network. Transactions settle in a few seconds and cost around one hundredth of a cent.</p>
<p>That focus means fewer fireworks. It also means fewer surprises, which is exactly what you want from payment rails.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$11.4B</b><span>stablecoin transfer volume in Q2 2026, a record, up 72% on the quarter</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$3B</b><span>in tokenised real-world assets by June 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>10.7M</b><span>active accounts</span></div>
</div>
<p class="note">Figures are as reported by the Stellar Development Foundation in its <a href="https://stellar.org/blog/foundation-news/q2-2026-what-stellar-was-built-for-has-arrived" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 2026 update</a>; the volume figure counts stablecoin transfers on the network in April to June 2026.</p>

<h2>The MoneyGram story</h2>
<p>MoneyGram first connected to Stellar in 2021 to settle with USDC, letting people move between cash and digital dollars at its locations. In 2026 it went further and launched its own regulated digital dollar, MGUSD, on the network. When one of the world's best-known remittance brands puts its own dollar on a blockchain, it tells you how seriously the industry now takes this.</p>

<h2>Not just remittance any more</h2>
<p>The other big shift this year was institutions. The DTCC, which sits underneath much of the US securities market, picked Stellar as one of the first public blockchains for tokenisation. Franklin Templeton runs a tokenised money-market fund on it. Bermuda chose it for its plan to put its economy on-chain. These aren't speculative projects; they're organisations whose whole business is being careful.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Stellar's advantage was never speed or hype. It was patience: more than a decade of building the boring parts properly.</blockquote>

<h2>Why it matters for families sending money</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Cost.</b> When a transfer costs a fraction of a cent to settle, the network is no longer the expensive part of sending money.</li>
  <li><b>Cash still works.</b> Through anchors and cash networks, people who don't have bank accounts can still send and receive.</li>
  <li><b>Regulated dollars.</b> USDC, EURC and now MGUSD give families digital dollars issued by accountable companies.</li>
</ul>

<h2>The honest caveats</h2>
<p>Stellar is smaller than Ethereum or Tron by stablecoin supply, and its ecosystem of apps is narrower. The quality of the experience depends heavily on the anchors in each country: a great network with a weak local partner still gives a weak result. And, as with every chain, the user should never have to think about which network their money is on.</p>
<p>Still, if you were designing a blockchain specifically for the problem of a construction foreman in Abu Dhabi paying his parents' bills in Cebu or Thrissur, it would look a lot like this one.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stellar-payments-blockchain.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Gulf to South Asia Remittances: Exchange Houses, Costs, Digital Shift</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>How money moves from the GCC to India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka: record inflows, exchange houses, cost gaps of 3% to 10%, and the move to apps.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On a Friday evening in Dubai's Al Karama, the queue outside an exchange house can stretch down the pavement. Inside, electricians, drivers and shop assistants hand over dirhams and walk out with a receipt that becomes rupees in Kochi, taka in Sylhet or rupees in Pokhara within minutes. Behind each receipt is a household budget: a mortgage instalment in Thrissur, a younger brother's college fees in Sylhet, a new roof in a village outside Pokhara. This corridor, from the six Gulf states to South Asia, is one of the densest flows of household money on earth. In 2025 and 2026 it set records almost everywhere, and the way it moves is starting to change.</p>

<h2>The scale of the flow</h2>
<p>The receiving countries tell the story. On the RBI's fiscal-year count, India took in a record $135.46 billion in remittances in 2024-25 (IFAD's calendar-year estimate for 2025, on a different definition, is $150.7 billion), according to RBI data reported by <a href="https://www.newsonair.gov.in/remittances-by-indians-working-abroad-scale-record-high-of-135-billion-in-fy25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">All India Radio</a>. Bangladesh received $35.56 billion in fiscal 2025-26, up from $30.33 billion a year earlier. Nepal's central bank reported Rs 2,363 billion, or $16.19 billion, in fiscal 2025-26, a 28.1% rise in dollar terms. Sri Lanka passed $8 billion in workers' remittances for the first time in 2025, reaching $8.07 billion, up 22.8%.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>Dh188.8B</b><span>sent via UAE exchange houses in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>38%</b><span>of India's remittances from GCC states</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$35.56B</b><span>Bangladesh inflows, FY2025-26</span></div></div>
<p>On the sending side, the Central Bank of the UAE reported that outward transfers through the country's exchange houses rose 27.8% to Dh188.8 billion in 2025, with personal remittances the largest slice at Dh115.7 billion, as covered by <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-remains-major-remittance-market-as-outward-transfers-jump-28-to-dh1888-billion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khaleej Times</a>.</p>

<h2>India: the Gulf is still huge, but no longer number one</h2>
<p>The RBI's latest remittance survey, covering 2023-24, found that the GCC states together accounted for 38% of India's inward remittances, with the UAE alone at 19.2%. The United States, at 27.7%, has now overtaken the UAE as the single largest source, and the UK has climbed to 10.8%, according to <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/advanced-economies-overtake-gulf-nations-in-share-of-remittances-to-india-125032100650_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a>. That shift reflects a more skilled, higher-earning diaspora in Western economies. It does not mean the Gulf is fading: Indians in Gulf countries still make up around half of all Indian migrants worldwide, and for many households in states such as Kerala, Gulf wages remain the main income.</p>

<h2>Why the cost gap is so wide</h2>
<p>South Asia is the cheapest receiving region in the World Bank's dataset, with an average cost of 4.80% for $200 in the first quarter of 2025, against a global average of 6.49% that quarter (6.36% by Q3 2025). But the averages conceal big differences between corridors.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Corridor ($200 equivalent)</th><th>Avg total cost, Q3 2025</th><th>Of which FX margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>UAE to India</td><td>3.72%</td><td>0.75%</td></tr><tr><td>UAE to Philippines (for comparison)</td><td>3.04%</td><td>0.24%</td></tr><tr><td>Saudi Arabia to Bangladesh</td><td>10.20%</td><td>5.30%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Sending $200 from the UAE to India cost 3.72% on average in the third quarter of 2025, according to <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/AE/IN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide</a>. From Saudi Arabia to Bangladesh, the average was 10.20%, and more than half of that came from the exchange rate margin rather than the fee. Private data points the same way: FXC Intelligence's 2025 rankings placed Bangladesh seventh among the costliest of 35 major receiving markets, while Nepal and Sri Lanka sat among the ten cheapest.</p>
<p>The reason is mostly structural. The UAE to India corridor is crowded with banks, exchange houses and apps competing on a liquid currency pair. Bangladesh has had a managed exchange rate and a long history of informal hundi channels, which keeps formal margins wider. Our piece on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> explains why a zero-fee headline can still cost more.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">On the same street in Riyadh, two workers sending the same $200 home can pay a threefold difference, depending only on where home is.</blockquote>

<h2>From counters to apps</h2>
<p>Exchange houses built this corridor, and many are now competing with their own apps. A Visa survey of UAE residents published in September 2025 found nearly two in three preferred mobile apps and digital platforms over visiting a branch, with ease of use the most cited reason and high cost the most common complaint.</p>
<p>The receiving side is going digital too. India's UPI has linked with several overseas systems, and in June 2026 India and Nepal went live with a person-to-person connection between UPI and Nepal's National Payments Interface, bringing the number of countries where UPI is live to 10. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI's global expansion</a> covers the other links. For a worker in Doha whose family banks in Nepal, those connections could eventually mean cheaper and faster routes with fewer intermediaries.</p>

<h2>Nepal and Sri Lanka: dependence and resilience</h2>
<p>Nepal is among the most remittance-dependent economies in the world, and the 2025-26 surge was striking. One detail deserves attention: first-time foreign employment approvals fell to 406,519 from 505,957, while renewals rose. More money is coming from workers already abroad, which may not repeat if fewer people leave.</p>
<p>Nepal is also a reminder of how much of this corridor is a Gulf story. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have long been among the main destinations for Nepali workers on labour permits, and the money they send pays for school fees, house construction and loan repayments in hill districts with few other sources of cash income.</p>
<p>Sri Lanka's record year marks a recovery from the crisis years, when much money moved informally. December 2025's $879.1 million was the highest monthly inflow on record, according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka figures reported by Ada Derana.</p>

<h2>What would actually lower costs</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Price transparency on FX.</b> Showing the margin against a reference rate, not just the fee, would expose the most expensive offers.</li>
<li><b>Fast-payment links</b> between Gulf instant payment systems and South Asian ones, so fewer correspondent banks take a cut.</li>
<li><b>Direct bill payment.</b> A large share of this money pays school fees, electricity and loans. Paying those directly from the Gulf, as we argue in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/">bills are the real remittance</a>, removes a cash-out step.</li>
</ul>
<p>The corridor's volume is not in question. Its price is, and that is where the next few years of competition will be fought, one exchange-house receipt at a time.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Caring for Parents From Abroad: Real Costs in India and Philippines</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/caring-for-parents-from-abroad/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/caring-for-parents-from-abroad/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>What it costs to care for ageing parents from abroad: caregivers, hospital bills, insurance, public cover and emergency money in India and the Philippines.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/caring-for-parents-from-abroad.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The message usually arrives at a bad hour. A hospital billing desk in Coimbatore wants an advance before an angiogram; a cousin in Iloilo says the caregiver has quit and Lola cannot be left alone tonight. The child is in Calgary or Riyadh, eight or five time zones away, with a card that works abroad and a parent whose phone keeps asking for an OTP nobody can read. Long-distance care is often described as an emotional problem. In practice, much of it is a payments problem: getting the right amount to the right counterparty in India or the Philippines, quickly, without handing a frail parent a pile of cash.</p>

<p>This guide looks at what that care actually costs in the two countries with the largest overseas families, which public schemes now carry part of the load, and how to structure the money so that the 2 a.m. call is a bill to settle rather than a crisis.</p>

<h2>Ageing at home, children abroad</h2>

<p>India is ageing faster than most people realise. The UNFPA's India Ageing Report found that people aged 60 and over were <a href="https://scroll.in/latest/1056724/indias-ageing-population-to-double-by-2050-says-un-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.5% of the population in 2022 and are projected to reach 20.8% by 2050</a>, with the elderly outnumbering children under 15 by around 2046. About one-fifth of older Indians already live alone or only with a spouse, 71% live in rural areas, and nearly a third of older women have never worked and have no income of their own.</p>

<p>Those numbers overlap heavily with migration. Kerala, which received about a fifth of India's remittances in the RBI's last survey, is also one of the oldest states, with women at 60 expecting around 22 more years of life. The pattern is familiar: one child in the Gulf or North America, another in Bengaluru, and parents in the family home who are fine until, suddenly, they are not.</p>

<p>The Philippines has a younger population but an even heavier reliance on overseas earnings. Personal remittances reached a <a href="https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/02/17/2508451/remittances-reach-record-high-356-billion/amp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">record $39.62 billion in 2025</a>, with cash remittances equal to 7.3% of GDP. The United States supplied 39.7% of cash remittances, followed by Singapore at 7.3% and Saudi Arabia at 6.6%. A large share of that money pays for medicine, maintenance drugs and someone to sit with an elderly parent. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/">OFW remittances</a> covers the corridor itself.</p>

<h2>Who pays the hospital: public cover is finally growing</h2>

<p>For decades, Indian families paid most health costs out of their own pockets. That is changing, slowly. The government's National Health Accounts show out-of-pocket spending fell to <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2024/oct/doc2024104408201.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">39.4% of total health expenditure in 2021-22, from 62.6% in 2014-15</a>, while government spending rose to 48% of the total. Even so, almost two rupees in every five spent on health still come straight from households, and for families with a child abroad, that often means a transfer.</p>

<p>The biggest recent change for older parents is the Ayushman Vay Vandana card. Since October 2024, every resident Indian aged 70 and above qualifies for Rs 5 lakh of hospital cover under AB PM-JAY, regardless of income. By 31 December 2025, <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/personal-finance/over-960-million-ayushman-vay-vandana-cards-issued-since-launch-how-to-apply-for-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 96.7 lakh cards had been issued</a> and 10.3 lakh hospital admissions authorised, worth Rs 2,154.37 crore, across more than 33,000 empanelled hospitals. That works out to roughly Rs 20,900 per admission, which suggests the scheme is mostly paying for routine procedures and short stays rather than long ICU episodes. Enrolment is done online with e-KYC, which a child abroad can often walk a parent through on a video call.</p>

<p>In the Philippines, the shift happened earlier. Under Republic Act 10645, every Filipino aged 60 and over who is not already a PhilHealth member through work is <a href="https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/world%2Fasia%2Fphilippines%2Fphilippines-insurance-for-senior-citizens-automatically-covered-by-philhealth-1.500425921" target="_blank" rel="noopener">automatically covered</a>, with premiums paid by the national government from sin-tax revenue. Coverage includes room and board, professional fees, medicines, outpatient consultations, the Konsulta primary-care package and dialysis, and zero-balance billing has expanded in government hospitals. Indigent seniors also receive a <a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/philippines/philippines-expands-senior-citizen-support-as-pension-programmes-continue-into-2026-what-to-know-1.500395811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">social pension of P1,000 a month</a>, doubled under RA 11916, reaching more than 4 million people by end-2025 with over a million more on the waitlist.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Public cover now handles the big hospital bill more often than before. What it does not handle is the Tuesday afternoon: the caregiver, the pharmacy run, the electricity bill.</blockquote>

<h2>India and the Philippines side by side</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Cost or support</th><th>India</th><th>Philippines</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Public hospital cover for seniors</td><td>Rs 5 lakh under Vay Vandana for all aged 70+</td><td>Automatic PhilHealth for all aged 60+, premiums paid by state</td></tr>
<tr><td>Household share of health spending</td><td>39.4% out of pocket (2021-22)</td><td>Varies; zero-balance billing in selected government hospitals</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cash support for elderly</td><td>State-level old-age pensions, amounts vary</td><td>P1,000/month social pension for indigent seniors</td></tr>
<tr><td>Home help benchmark</td><td>Rs 12,000-25,000/month part-time attendant; Rs 35,000-50,000 live-in</td><td>P7,800/month legal minimum for Metro Manila domestic workers</td></tr>
<tr><td>Remittance pool</td><td>$135.46B (2024-25)</td><td>$39.62B (2025)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Sources: PIB National Health Accounts, Outlook Money, Gulf News, GMA News, Samarth, RBI, BSP via Philstar. Care costs are indicative ranges, not quotes.</p>

<h2>Worked example: budgeting care for a parent in a Tier-2 Indian city</h2>

<p>Take a 72-year-old widow living alone in Coimbatore, with a son in Calgary. She is mobile but has diabetes and needs help with cooking, bathing and medicines. Here is what a sensible monthly structure looks like, using published ranges.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Care:</b> Samarth's 2025 survey of home-care pricing puts <a href="https://care.samarth.community/blog/long-distance-care-giving/24x7-in-home-care-cost-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">part-time attendants at Rs 12,000-25,000 a month and basic live-in care at Rs 35,000-50,000</a>, with Tier-2 cities running 15-20% below metros. A live-in attendant in Coimbatore might therefore cost around Rs 28,000-42,500. Budget Rs 35,000.</li>
<li><b>Hospital risk:</b> She qualifies for the Vay Vandana card, which covers up to Rs 5 lakh at empanelled hospitals. That does not remove the need for private cover if the family prefers non-empanelled hospitals, but it changes the size of the emergency fund.</li>
<li><b>Recurring bills:</b> electricity, water, phone, gas cylinder, property tax and medicines. These are best paid directly by the son, not routed through her account. Systems like <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect</a> let many of these billers be paid from one interface.</li>
<li><b>Emergency buffer:</b> At Rs 20,900 per average Vay Vandana admission, a buffer of Rs 1-1.5 lakh held in an account the son can operate covers deposits, non-covered consumables and transport for several episodes.</li>
</ul>

<p>Total run-rate: roughly Rs 35,000 for care plus Rs 8,000-12,000 for bills and medicines, or about Rs 5.2-5.6 lakh a year, with a one-off buffer of Rs 1-1.5 lakh. Moved as a single monthly transfer, that is a manageable number. Moved as panic transfers each time something breaks, it costs more in fees, worse exchange rates and stress.</p>

<p>If the son still files Indian returns under the old tax regime, health insurance premiums paid for senior-citizen parents can qualify for a deduction under Section 80D, within a combined ceiling of up to <a href="https://cleartax.in/s/medical-insurance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rs 75,000 or Rs 1 lakh depending on ages</a>, provided the premium is paid by any mode other than cash. The deduction is not available under the new regime. Tax treatment for NRIs depends on individual circumstances, so check with a qualified adviser; our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a> covers the basics.</p>

<h3>The Philippine version</h3>

<p>Now take a 68-year-old father in Quezon City with a daughter working in Riyadh. He is automatically covered by PhilHealth. The household's main cost is a live-in kasambahay, whose legal minimum in Metro Manila rose to <a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/money/economy/973794/ncr-wage-board-oks-p800-hike-in-kasambahays-minimum-wage/story/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">P7,800 a month from 7 February 2026</a>, up from P7,000. Twelve months at the minimum is P93,600 a year before food, lodging and benefits, and anyone with caregiving skills will expect more. If he receives an SSS pension, it gets a 10% increase each September through 2027, which helps cover maintenance medicines.</p>

<h2>Pay the counterparty, not the parent</h2>

<p>The most useful shift in long-distance care is structural. Instead of sending a lump sum to a parent and hoping it is spent well, pay the people and institutions directly wherever possible.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Caregivers:</b> pay by bank transfer or UPI on a fixed date, with a written agreement. Cash handed over by a frail parent invites disputes and, sometimes, exploitation.</li>
<li><b>Utilities and subscriptions:</b> pay billers directly. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">bill payments for NRIs</a> walks through the options.</li>
<li><b>Hospitals:</b> register the parent's insurance or Vay Vandana card with the nearest large empanelled hospital in advance, so admission can be cashless. Ask the hospital which international payment methods its billing desk accepts before you need it.</li>
<li><b>Insurance:</b> pay premiums from your own account and keep receipts, both for continuity and for any tax claim.</li>
<li><b>Emergency money:</b> keep a defined buffer in an account you can access remotely, with a trusted local relative or friend who can act on the ground.</li>
</ol>

<p>Paying directly also protects parents from the fastest-growing threat to their savings: scams. Older people who receive regular transfers are prime targets for fake bank calls, KYC-update links and impersonation. See our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> before setting anything up.</p>

<h2>The paperwork that saves a week</h2>

<p>Every family that has handled a hospital stay remotely says the same thing: the money was not the hard part, the authority was. Banks will not talk to a child about a parent's account without a mandate. Hospitals want a local signatory. Insurers want original documents. A few hours spent now, while parents are well, removes most of that friction.</p>

<ul>
<li>A registered power of attorney or bank mandate for at least one account.</li>
<li>Copies of ID, insurance cards, Vay Vandana or PhilHealth details, prescriptions and recent test results, stored where the child and a local contact can reach them.</li>
<li>Nominee and joint-holder details updated on bank accounts and deposits.</li>
<li>A named local person, with a written list of who to call and what they can approve.</li>
</ul>

<p>None of this is legal advice, and rules on powers of attorney and joint accounts differ between India and the Philippines, so a local lawyer is worth an hour of fees.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Through September 2027:</b> the Philippines' SSS pension increases continue, with retirement pensions rising 10% each September. The September 2026 step-up reached about 3.8 million pensioners; the final one is due in September 2027.</li>
<li><b>2026-27 Philippine Congress:</b> the Universal Social Pension Bill, which would extend at least P1,000 a month to all seniors, has cleared a House panel but still needs House plenary and Senate approval.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> Vay Vandana enrolment and claims data from the National Health Authority. Watch whether average claim values rise as older beneficiaries use the cover for larger procedures.</li>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the World Bank's next migration and remittances brief, which will show whether health and care spending is pushing remittances to India and the Philippines to new highs.</li>
<li><b>February 2027:</b> India's Union Budget, the usual venue for changes to health-scheme funding and senior-citizen tax provisions.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our view: public cover in both countries has improved enough that the catastrophic hospital bill is less likely than it was a decade ago. The real cost of caring from abroad is now the steady, unglamorous stream of wages, medicines and household bills, and the families who handle it best are the ones who treat it like a small payroll rather than a series of emergencies. For more on how remittances are actually spent, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/">what remittances pay for</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/caring-for-parents-from-abroad.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Payments in 2026: Where the Real $390B in Volume Comes From</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 19 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>B2B transfers, payroll, Visa and Mastercard settlement, Shopify and Stripe checkout and remittances: the real stablecoin payment trends of 2026, with data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">The stablecoin industry has a credibility problem with its own statistics. Headlines quote trillions of dollars in transfers, but most of that is trading bots and money shuffling between exchange wallets. Strip it out and you are left with a smaller, more interesting number: the payments real businesses and people make. In 2026 that number is finally big enough, and growing fast enough, to take seriously.</p>

<h2>Start with the honest number</h2>
<p>The clearest measure comes from a joint analysis by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/stablecoins-find-their-niche" target="_blank" rel="noopener">McKinsey and Artemis Analytics</a>, which counted about $390 billion of genuine stablecoin payments in 2025. That is roughly 0.02% of global payments. Tiny, in other words, but concentrated in exactly the places where existing rails are slowest and most expensive.</p>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Payment type</th><th>2025 volume</th><th>Share of that market</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Business to business</td><td>$226B</td><td>0.01%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Consumer to consumer</td><td>$77B</td><td>0.37%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Consumer to business</td><td>$76B</td><td>0.11%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Business to consumer</td><td>$11B</td><td>0.01%</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Two things stand out. Businesses dominate by value. But stablecoins have their deepest penetration in person-to-person transfers, where they already handle about 0.37% of the market, which is mostly cross-border family money. This year the pace picked up: identified stablecoin payments reached at least $401 billion between January and August 2026, up 42% on the year before.</p>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$390B</b><span>genuine stablecoin payments in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$20B+</b><span>Visa stablecoin settlement run rate, September 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>730%</b><span>growth in B2B stablecoin payments during 2025</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Trend 1: B2B is the engine</h2>
<p>An importer in Dhaka paying a supplier in Shenzhen does not care about blockchains. She cares that a wire takes three days, costs a fixed fee plus a currency spread, and sometimes gets stuck at an intermediary bank. A stablecoin transfer settles in minutes at any hour. Artemis and Stablecon estimated that B2B stablecoin payments grew more than 730% during 2025, led by small and mid-sized firms rather than multinationals.</p>
<p>The infrastructure behind this is consolidating into big hands. Stripe closed its $1.1 billion purchase of the stablecoin platform Bridge in February 2025, and Mastercard completed its acquisition of BVNK on 3 August 2026, describing cross-border B2B payments, payouts and treasury flows as the target, according to <a href="https://investor.mastercard.com/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/Mastercard-completes-acquisition-of-BVNK-to-advance-global-stablecoin-capabilities/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mastercard's announcement</a>. Background on why legacy rails are slow sits in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">our correspondent banking explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>Trend 2: card networks are settling in stablecoins</h2>
<p>The most underrated shift is happening behind the card swipe. When a cardholder spends from a stablecoin balance, the merchant still gets paid in local currency, but the settlement between the card program and Visa can now happen in USDC. Visa's stablecoin settlement passed a $20 billion annualized run rate in September 2026, up more than fifteenfold in a year, with more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs live, according to <a href="https://theblock.co/news/business/2026-09-08-visa-stablecoin-settlement-tops-20-billion-annualized-run-rate-up-more-than-15x-year-over-year-413749" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. As recently as April the run rate was $7 billion.</p>
<p>Spending on crypto-linked cards has grown alongside. Artemis put it above $18 billion in early 2026, close to the volume of direct peer-to-peer stablecoin transfers. If you are new to these products, start with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">our guide to crypto cards</a>.</p>

<h2>Trend 3: checkout is opening up</h2>
<p>Merchant acceptance moved from experiment to default in some places. Shopify began rolling out USDC payments in June 2025, built with Coinbase and Stripe on the Base network, switched on by default for eligible merchants and with up to 0.5% cash back for merchants who accept it. Stripe now uses Open USD as its default stablecoin for business transactions after the token's launch on 30 September 2026. Open USD is jointly owned by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Shopify and Coinbase, and more than 200 companies signed up by launch day.</p>
<p>Will shoppers in Toronto start paying for groceries in stablecoins? Probably not soon. The real use is cross-border e-commerce, where a small brand selling to customers in 40 countries can avoid card fees and currency conversion on every order.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Stablecoins are winning where money crosses a border, not where it crosses a counter.</blockquote>

<h2>Trend 4: payroll and contractor payouts</h2>
<p>Paying remote workers is a natural fit. Deel, which runs payroll in more than 150 countries, launched stablecoin salary payouts for full-time employees on 20 May 2026 on the Polygon network, starting in the US and the eurozone. Employees choose what share of their net pay arrives as stablecoins. Specialist platforms got there earlier: Rise passed $1 billion of payroll volume in November 2025, and a case study cited by BeInCrypto said more than half of its users opt for stablecoin payouts.</p>
<p>Picture a software contractor in Kathmandu paid by a startup in San Francisco. A dollar balance that arrives the same day, which she can hold or convert when the rate suits her, is a meaningful upgrade on a monthly wire.</p>

<h2>Trend 5: remittance companies are issuing their own coins</h2>
<p>The incumbents of family remittance have stopped waiting. MoneyGram launched its own MGUSD stablecoin on Stellar in June 2026 for its base of more than 60 million customers and nearly 500,000 locations, and Western Union announced its USDPT stablecoin on Solana, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, for launch in 2026. Both still rely on cash agents and bank partners at the receiving end, which is where most of the cost of sending money still sits. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> analysis covers that last mile.</p>

<h2>What could slow it down</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Off-ramps.</b> Converting stablecoins into rupees, pesos or shillings still runs through licensed local partners, and their spreads can wipe out the savings.</li>
  <li><b>Rules on rewards.</b> US regulators are still writing GENIUS Act rules, including how far partners can share reserve income with users.</li>
  <li><b>Fragmentation.</b> More issuers and more chains mean more conversion steps unless interoperability keeps improving.</li>
</ul>
<p>There is also a measurement problem. Much of the volume that looks like payments is still a business moving its own money between accounts, and the line between a treasury transfer and a real purchase is blurry. Analysts at Artemis and elsewhere are getting better at separating the two, but readers should treat any single payments figure as an estimate with wide error bars.</p>
<p>None of these is a reason to doubt the direction. In 2026 stablecoins stopped being mainly a trading tool and became a quiet settlement layer for businesses, card networks and remittance firms. The next step, machines paying machines, is already being built; see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/">our piece on agentic payments</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>GENIUS Act and MiCA: The Rules That Made Stablecoins Grow Up</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>The US GENIUS Act and Europe&#x27;s MiCA turned stablecoins into regulated money. What the rules require, what changed in 2026, and what it means for everyday users.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">For years, the honest answer to "are stablecoins safe?" was "it depends who issued it and whether you trust them." In 2025 and 2026, the US and the EU replaced that shrug with law. It's the single biggest reason stablecoins are moving from crypto curiosity to everyday money.</p>

<h2>The US: the GENIUS Act</h2>
<p>Signed in July 2025, the GENIUS Act created the first federal rulebook for payment stablecoins in the United States. The headline rules:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Full reserves.</b> Issuers must hold reserves at least equal to every token in circulation, at all times.</li>
  <li><b>Safe assets only.</b> Reserves are limited to cash, central-bank deposits, short-dated US Treasuries, Treasury-backed repos and money-market funds that hold only those things, kept separate from the issuer's own money.</li>
  <li><b>Fast redemption.</b> Holders must be able to redeem for dollars within two business days in normal conditions.</li>
  <li><b>Checks.</b> Monthly third-party attestations on reserves, plus full audits for the very largest issuers.</li>
  <li><b>No interest for holding.</b> Payment stablecoins can't pay you yield just for keeping them.</li>
</ul>
<p>Regulators spent 2026 writing the detailed rules. The OCC published a 376-page proposal in February, and other agencies followed. The law takes full effect in January 2027.</p>

<h2>Europe: MiCA</h2>
<p>The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation got there first. Its stablecoin rules applied from mid-2024, and the transition period for crypto firms ended on 1 July 2026. Dollar and euro stablecoins offered in Europe must be "e-money tokens" issued by an authorised institution.</p>
<p>The consequences were visible. USDC and EURC, issued under Circle's French licence, kept flowing. USDT, which isn't authorised, was delisted or restricted for EU users on the big exchanges. At the end of September, Europe's securities regulator recommended going further and stopping licensed firms from servicing non-compliant stablecoins at all.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Regulation didn't kill stablecoins. It gave them the one thing they were missing: a reason for ordinary people and cautious institutions to trust them.</blockquote>

<h2>What this means for you</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>The dollar promise has teeth.</b> A regulated stablecoin now has legal reserve, redemption and reporting rules behind it.</li>
  <li><b>Where you live changes which coins you can use.</b> Europe and the US are drawing lines; Asia, the Gulf and Africa are writing their own.</li>
  <li><b>Fewer cowboys.</b> Apps and exchanges that serve you must be licensed, which is good news for anyone who just wants to pay a bill without worrying.</li>
  <li><b>Savings and spending are separating.</b> Because payment stablecoins can't pay interest, yield products are becoming distinct, regulated offerings.</li>
</ol>

<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>The rest of the world is catching up. The UAE, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan all have stablecoin regimes in place or on the way, and India continues to study the space carefully. The direction is the same everywhere: stablecoins are being treated less like crypto and more like a new form of electronic money.</p>
<p>For users, that is a good outcome. Clear rules are what let a family trust that money sent every month will keep arriving, year after year.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>EU Instant Payments Regulation: How SEPA Instant Hit 35% of Transfers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/sepa-instant-payments-regulation/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/sepa-instant-payments-regulation/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>The EU Instant Payments Regulation forced banks to send and receive in 10 seconds at no extra cost and check payee names. Here is what changed and what it did.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/sepa-instant-payments-regulation.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Europe had an instant payment scheme from 2017. For years it was optional, often more expensive than a normal transfer, and used for a small slice of payments. Then Brussels stopped asking. The Instant Payments Regulation turned instant transfers into the default for euro accounts, and the share of credit transfers sent instantly has roughly doubled in two years.</p>

<h2>Why the EU legislated</h2>
<p>The SEPA Instant Credit Transfer scheme, known as SCT Inst, lets a euro payment land in another account within ten seconds, at any hour. The technology worked. Adoption did not. In the first quarter of 2024, only 17.3% of SEPA credit transfers were instant, according to a <a href="https://ecb.europa.eu/paym/groups/erpb/shared/pdf/21st-ERPB-meeting/Status_update_on_SCT_Inst_scheme.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">European Payments Council update</a> to the ECB's retail payments board. Many banks did not offer it, and those that did often charged a premium.</p>
<p>For EU policymakers, that was a strategic problem as much as a consumer one. Without a common instant rail, European retail payments leaned on international card schemes and big tech wallets. The regulation, adopted in March 2024, was meant to fix the base layer.</p>

<h2>The four obligations</h2>
<p>The rules, summarised by the <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/integration/retail/instant_payments/html/instant_payments_regulation.pt.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">European Central Bank</a>, boil down to four requirements for payment providers that offer ordinary euro credit transfers.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Receive instant payments.</b> Euro area banks had to be reachable for SCT Inst by 9 January 2025.</li>
<li><b>Price parity.</b> From the same date, an instant transfer can cost no more than a standard one. If a normal transfer is free, so is an instant one.</li>
<li><b>Send instant payments.</b> Euro area banks had to offer sending by 9 October 2025.</li>
<li><b>Verification of payee.</b> Also from 9 October 2025, banks must check, free of charge, whether the name the customer types matches the account holder behind the IBAN, for standard and instant transfers alike. The answer comes back as match, close match, no match or not possible.</li>
</ol>
<p>Banks also have to screen their customers against EU sanctions lists at least daily, instead of checking every single instant payment, which removes a technical reason for delays. Member states outside the euro have until January and July 2027, and electronic money and payment institutions have until April 2027.</p>

<h2>What happened to volumes</h2>
<p>The regulation worked on its own terms. EPC data presented to the ECB in May 2026 shows instant transfers reached 35.6% of SEPA credit transfers in the first quarter of 2026, roughly double the 2024 level. SCT Inst processed 10.1 billion transactions in 2025, up 73% on the year before. Some 2,817 payment providers had signed up to the scheme by April 2026, covering all 21 euro area countries.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>35.6%</b><span>of SEPA transfers instant, Q1 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>10.1B</b><span>SCT Inst payments in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>+73%</b><span>growth in instant volume, 2025</span></div></div>

<p>Price parity did the heavy lifting. Once a bank could no longer charge a premium for speed, keeping a separate slow product made little commercial sense, and many banks simply switched their apps to send instantly by default. For customers the change was often invisible: the transfer button looked the same, but the money arrived before they had closed the app.</p>
<p>That still leaves almost two-thirds of credit transfers going the slow way. Part of that is corporate batch payments, such as salaries and supplier runs, which run on a schedule where seconds do not matter. Part of it is habit. And instant credit transfers remain a small share of all non-cash payments, about 7% in the euro area at the end of 2025, because cards still dominate at the till.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Price parity did more for instant payments than seven years of voluntary adoption.</blockquote>

<h2>Verification of payee: the sleeper feature</h2>
<p>The name check may end up being the most noticeable change for ordinary people. Before October 2025, a bank transfer in most of Europe went through on the IBAN alone. Type a wrong digit, or get tricked by a fake invoice, and the money went wherever the number pointed.</p>
<p>Early data is encouraging. A <a href="https://home.cib.natixis.com/articles/verification-of-payee-a-promising-start" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Natixis review</a> found that across December 2025 and January 2026, 66% of checks returned a match, 13% a close match and 19% no match. In Latvia, the central bank said 57.4 million checks ran in the first five months, and half of surveyed people who saw the check said it helped them avoid a wrong transfer, according to <a href="https://www.bank.lv/en/news-and-events/news-and-articles/news/17576-results-from-the-first-months-of-the-instant-verification-service-confirm-its-practical-benefits-to-the-public" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Latvijas Banka</a>.</p>
<p>A 19% no-match rate sounds alarming, but many of those are innocent: nicknames, married names, company trading names. The real test is whether customers learn to stop when they see a warning, or click through out of habit. Natixis also cautioned that the check can create a false sense of security, since a fraudster can open an account in a name that matches.</p>

<h2>Who benefits next</h2>
<p>Instant rails at scale create room for new products. Wero, the wallet from the European Payments Initiative, runs on SCT Inst and reported more than 43 million registered users across Germany, Belgium and France by August 2026, with merchants such as Lidl accepting it. The regulation also opened access for payment and e-money institutions to central bank settlement systems, letting fintechs plug in more directly.</p>
<p>Next comes the payments package that replaces PSD2. A provisional deal in November 2025 on the new Payment Services Regulation extends name and identifier checks and shifts more fraud liability onto providers, covered in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/">open banking</a>. And the ECB's <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">digital euro</a> project, if it goes ahead, would sit alongside these rails rather than replace them.</p>

<h2>What it means for people sending money</h2>
<p>For a freelancer in Lisbon invoicing a client in Frankfurt, the change is simple: payment arrives in seconds, at the same price as before, with a name check that catches mistakes. For someone sending money outside Europe, nothing changes yet, because SCT Inst is euro-only and stops at the SEPA border. Linking Europe's instant rail to systems such as India's UPI or Brazil's Pix is the next frontier, and it is the subject of projects like <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Nexus</a>.</p>
<p>The lesson for other regions is blunt. Voluntary schemes grow slowly when banks earn more from the old way. A rule that sets price parity and a hard date moved Europe further in two years than the previous seven.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/sepa-instant-payments-regulation.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>OTC Crypto Desks Explained: Block Trades, RFQs and Stablecoin Deals</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/otc-crypto-desks-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/otc-crypto-desks-explained/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How OTC crypto and stablecoin desks price block trades, run RFQs and settle, where counterparty risk hides, and what 2025 data says about who uses them.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/otc-crypto-desks-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 25 July 2025, Galaxy announced that it had sold more than 80,000 bitcoin for a client it described only as a Satoshi-era investor, a trade worth over $9 billion at the prices of the day. Nobody watching the public order books saw a single order of that size. That is the point of an over-the-counter desk: to move a position large enough to wreck a market without the market finding out until it is done. The same machinery, at a far smaller scale, now handles a Lagos importer converting stablecoins into dollars and a Dubai trading house swapping dirhams for USDT before paying a supplier in Shenzhen.</p>

<h2>What an OTC desk does, in plain terms</h2>
<p>An OTC desk is a dealer or broker that trades directly with a client rather than through a public order book. The client asks for a price on a specific size; the desk quotes a single all-in price for the whole lot; if the client accepts, the two sides settle bilaterally. There is no partial fill, no visible order, and no slippage after the quote is accepted.</p>
<p>Desks come in two broad types. <b>Principal desks</b> take the other side of the trade onto their own balance sheet and manage the risk afterwards, which is what the large trading firms do. <b>Agency desks</b> find the other side, or work the order across exchanges and liquidity providers, and charge for the service. Many exchanges run both an order book and an OTC desk, and the desk routes some flow into the book over time.</p>
<p>The minimums tell you who the service is for. Kraken's <a href="https://www.kraken.com/features/otc-exchange/bitcoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published OTC terms</a> set a floor of $100,000 equivalent, offer automated executable quotes for orders between $100,000 and $1 million, take larger trades by chat, and require all trade obligations to be settled within 24 hours. Those numbers are typical of exchange-affiliated desks. Pure dealer desks often start higher.</p>

<h2>How a block trade and an RFQ actually work</h2>
<p>The request-for-quote (RFQ) is the basic unit of OTC trading. It has five steps, and the economics hide in the second.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Request.</b> The client names the asset, side and size: sell 5 million USDT for US dollars, say, or buy 250 BTC against USDC.</li>
<li><b>Quote.</b> The desk prices the trade off the live market, then adds a spread that reflects size, volatility, the asset's liquidity, how quickly the desk can hedge and how much it trusts the client to settle.</li>
<li><b>Accept.</b> Quotes are live for seconds. On chat desks, a trader confirms the lot and price in writing; on RFQ screens and APIs, a click locks it in.</li>
<li><b>Settle.</b> Cash and crypto move between the two sides, either from balances already held with the desk or by wire and on-chain transfer.</li>
<li><b>Confirm.</b> Both sides get a trade confirmation for books and compliance.</li>
</ol>
<p>For really large trades, a desk may "work" the order over hours or days instead, executing in slices across venues and charging a fee or a guaranteed average price. The Galaxy sale was described as a completed sale, and the firm did not say how it was executed. Its <a href="https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fourth-quarter 2025 results</a> show what that kind of business looks like from the inside: 1,620 trading counterparties at year-end, up from 1,532 a quarter earlier, and a loan book of about $1.8 billion.</p>

<h2>The market in 2025: stablecoins took over</h2>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>74.6%</b><span>stablecoin share of institutional spot OTC deals, H1 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>+138%</b><span>crypto spot OTC growth, first nine months of 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$306B</b><span>total stablecoin supply, Oct 2026 (DefiLlama)</span></div></div>
<p>There is no consolidated tape for OTC crypto, so all market data comes from individual platforms. The most detailed public series comes from Finery Markets, a vendor of OTC trading technology, which publishes figures from trades on its own network. Read them as one large sample rather than the whole market.</p>
<p>Its <a href="https://finerymarkets.com/blog/circle-s-usdc-sees-remarkable-29-fold-yoy-growth-as-stablecoins-seize-75-of-institutional-otc-volume-in-h1-2025-finery-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first-half 2025 review</a>, covering 4.1 million trades, found that stablecoins featured in 74.6% of institutional spot deals, up from 46% a year earlier and 23% in 2023. Crypto-to-stablecoin flows rose 277% year on year while crypto-to-fiat rose about 49%. In other words, institutions increasingly treat a dollar stablecoin as the cash leg and only touch the banking system at the edges.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://finerymarkets.com/blog/crypto-otc-review-9-months-q3-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">nine-month review</a>, built on more than 7.1 million trades, put growth in crypto spot OTC at 138% year on year against 22% for the top 20 centralised exchanges. Ether OTC volume grew 222%, aggregate stablecoin volume 136% and bitcoin 124%. OTC is growing faster than the lit market, which is what you would expect when corporates, funds and payment firms arrive with ticket sizes that order books cannot absorb cheaply.</p>
<p>Stablecoins' share also explains why OTC desks have become payments infrastructure. With total stablecoin supply around $306 billion as of October 2026 and USDT at roughly 60% of it, the most common OTC trade in many corridors is not a speculative bitcoin buy but a conversion between a stablecoin and a local or hard currency. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT versus USDC comparison</a> covers why desks price the two differently.</p>

<h2>Who uses OTC desks</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Funds and long-term holders</b> moving large positions, like the Galaxy client, where public selling would move the price.</li>
<li><b>Miners and treasuries</b> selling production or rebalancing reserves, often on a schedule.</li>
<li><b>Payment companies and remittance firms</b> that need to source stablecoins against fiat, or redeem stablecoins into fiat, every day.</li>
<li><b>Importers and trading houses in dollar-short economies.</b> Chainalysis, as <a href="https://www.mariblock.com/stories/sub-saharan-africa-now-the-third-fastest-growing-crypto-region-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Mariblock</a>, found sub-Saharan Africa received more than $205 billion of crypto between July 2024 and June 2025, with stablecoins about 43% of volume and frequent multi-million-dollar stablecoin transfers linking Africa, the Gulf and Asia. Chainalysis noted its data excludes OTC and peer-to-peer flows, so the true figure is larger.</li>
<li><b>Exchanges and brokers</b> themselves, which lay off inventory with larger dealers.</li>
</ul>
<p>For the business-payments side of this, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a>.</p>

<h2>Settlement and counterparty risk: where things go wrong</h2>
<p>OTC trading strips out exchange risk and replaces it with counterparty risk. The trade is a private promise between two firms, and the period between agreeing a price and both legs arriving is where losses happen. Desks manage that window in four common ways.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Settlement model</th><th>How it works</th><th>Who carries the risk</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Pre-funded</td><td>Client deposits cash or crypto with the desk before trading; trade settles from balances in seconds</td><td>Client, on the desk's solvency while funds sit there</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bilateral, one side first</td><td>One party sends its leg, then the other sends within an agreed window (often 24 hours)</td><td>Whoever sends first</td></tr>
<tr><td>Post-trade credit</td><td>Desk extends a credit line; trades net and settle on a schedule</td><td>Desk, on the client's ability to pay</td></tr>
<tr><td>Off-exchange or tri-party custody</td><td>Assets stay with an independent custodian, which moves both legs simultaneously</td><td>Reduced for both, with custodian risk added</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The cautionary tale is 2022. When FTX collapsed in November, lender Genesis, a unit of Digital Currency Group that had been central to institutional crypto credit, froze redemptions on 16 November and filed for US bankruptcy protection on 19 January 2023, as <a href="https://theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business-tech/crypto-lending-unit-of-genesis-files-for-us-bankruptcy-4092828" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported at the time</a>. Firms that had left pre-funded balances or open credit with failed counterparties became unsecured creditors.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">An OTC quote is only as good as the balance sheet standing behind it once your money has left.</blockquote>
<p>Since then, the institutional market has moved toward segregated custody and simultaneous settlement, and toward desks owned by regulated, public companies whose finances can be read in filings. Stablecoins themselves add a second layer: the cash leg is only as sound as the issuer's reserves and redemption terms, a subject covered in our history of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">stablecoin depegs</a>.</p>

<h2>Worked example: pricing a $5 million stablecoin redemption</h2>
<p>The figures below are illustrative inputs, not quotes from any desk. A Dubai-based electronics distributor holds 5,000,000 USDT received from overseas customers and needs US dollars in its bank account to pay a supplier.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Option A, exchange order book.</b> It sells in pieces. Suppose the visible book absorbs the order at an average of 0.9993 after walking through levels, with a 0.10% taker fee. Proceeds: 5,000,000 x 0.9993 = $4,996,500, minus $4,996.50 in fees, so about $4,991,500, plus a bank withdrawal fee.</li>
<li><b>Option B, OTC RFQ.</b> The desk quotes 0.9990 all in for the full lot. Proceeds: $4,995,000 in one fill, settled by wire.</li>
<li><b>Difference.</b> The OTC route nets about $3,500 more and removes execution risk. If the book were thinner, or the market moving, the gap would widen quickly. If the desk's quote were 0.9980, the exchange would win by about $1,500.</li>
</ul>
<p>The lesson is that an OTC desk is not automatically cheaper. It is a price for certainty. Treasurers should collect quotes from more than one desk, compare against the live book at the same moment, and agree settlement terms before agreeing price. Anyone setting up such arrangements should take advice from a qualified adviser on licensing and tax in their jurisdiction.</p>

<h2>Regulation is catching up with the desks</h2>
<p>OTC desks sit inside the licensing regimes that now cover crypto firms in most major markets. In the EU, exchanging crypto-assets for funds and executing orders for clients are services that need a CASP licence under MiCA. In the UAE, Dubai's VARA licenses broker-dealer activity separately from exchange activity. In the US, most desks hold money transmitter licences and, for derivatives, register with the CFTC. Every regime layers the FATF travel rule on top, requiring sender and recipient details to travel with transfers above thresholds. See our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">the travel rule</a> and on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">CASP, VASP and money transmitter licences</a>.</p>
<p>The practical consequence for clients is heavier onboarding. Expect to supply corporate documents, ownership details, source-of-funds evidence and wallet ownership proofs before the first quote.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Finery Markets' full-year 2025 and H1 2026 data.</b> Whether the stablecoin share of OTC deals stays above 70% will show if 2025 was a structural shift or a cycle.</li>
<li><b>US market structure rules.</b> Federal crypto market structure legislation in 2026 would define which OTC activity sits with the SEC and which with the CFTC.</li>
<li><b>Bank-owned desks.</b> More banks are entering crypto trading under clearer US and European rules; their arrival would tighten spreads for corporates who prefer a bank counterparty.</li>
<li><b>Tokenised settlement.</b> Simultaneous delivery against tokenised cash or deposits, discussed in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/">tokenisation</a>, would remove much of the bilateral risk described above.</li>
</ul>
<p>OTC desks used to be a quiet corner of crypto for whales. With stablecoins now the dominant cash leg, they are becoming a foreign exchange market for a parallel dollar system, and they deserve the same scrutiny of credit, settlement and pricing that a treasurer would apply to any FX dealer.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/otc-crypto-desks-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>China&#x27;s e-CNY in 2026: 14.2 Trillion Yuan and a Turn to Interest</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/china-e-cny-digital-yuan/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/china-e-cny-digital-yuan/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>China&#x27;s digital yuan has processed 14.2 trillion yuan and now pays interest as bank deposit money. What changed in 2026, and why cross-border use matters most.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/china-e-cny-digital-yuan.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">For years, China's digital yuan was described as digital cash: a central bank token in your phone that earned nothing, just like a banknote in your pocket. On 1 January 2026, that description stopped being true. The world's largest CBDC pilot quietly turned into something closer to a bank deposit, and the reasons tell you a lot about what digital currencies can and cannot do.</p>

<h2>The scale</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>¥14.2T</b><span>cumulative e-CNY transaction value, end of September 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>3.32B</b><span>transactions processed to that date</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>225M</b><span>personal wallets opened in the e-CNY app</span></div>
</div>
<p>Those figures come from People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, speaking at the Financial Street Forum in October 2025 and reported by the <a href="https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202510/29/content_WS6901a9c9c6d00ca5f9a0726a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese government</a>. The pilot covered 26 localities across 17 provincial-level regions. At roughly $2 trillion in cumulative value, nothing else in the CBDC world comes close.</p>
<p>The growth curve is steep. Former governor Yi Gang put cumulative transactions at 1.8 trillion yuan by June 2023, as <a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/payments/7959347/digital-yuan-transactions-growing-rapidly-pboc-governor-says" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Banking</a> reported. By mid-2024 the figure was around 7 trillion. Fifteen months later it had doubled again.</p>

<h2>But context matters</h2>
<p>Cumulative numbers flatter any payment system, because they never go down. Put 14.2 trillion yuan over several years next to China's mobile payment giants, which handle everyday spending for hundreds of millions of people, and the e-CNY is still a small slice. A shopper in Chengdu already pays for noodles with a phone. The digital yuan asked her to switch from one phone payment to another for no obvious gain.</p>
<p>That is the core problem every retail CBDC faces, and China, with more resources and more willingness to push than anyone, ran into it too.</p>

<h2>The 2026 shift: from digital cash to deposit money</h2>
<p>From 1 January 2026, the e-CNY moved from being a central bank liability to what officials describe as digital deposit money. Deputy Governor Lu Lei announced the change, which was reported by <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cbdc-digital-yuan-enter-093806410.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CCN via Yahoo Finance</a>. The key changes:</p>
<ul>
  <li>Wallet balances become liabilities of the commercial banks that operate them, supervised by the PBOC.</li>
  <li>Holders can earn interest, which the report describes as a first for any CBDC.</li>
  <li>Banks must hold reserves against e-CNY balances, much like ordinary deposits.</li>
  <li>The design stays compatible with distributed ledger technology and keeps its cross-border role.</li>
</ul>
<p>In plain terms, China has admitted that a non-interest-bearing digital cash product could not compete with bank accounts and super-apps for people's balances. By folding the e-CNY into the deposit system, it gives users a reason to keep money there and gives banks a reason to promote it. The number of e-CNY operating institutions has since grown to 30, according to <a href="https://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202608/25/WS6a8ce0f4e4b07a432ddc2ff3.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily</a>.</p>

<h2>Why the old model struggled</h2>
<p>It helps to think about the choice from the user's side. Under the original design, an e-CNY balance was as safe as a banknote, but it earned nothing, and moving money back into a bank account was not always free. A bank deposit earned a little interest. A balance inside one of the big mobile payment apps came with rewards, credit, bill payment and a thousand mini-services. Rational users kept most of their money where it worked hardest and treated the e-CNY as a pass-through for subsidies, transit promotions and government red packets.</p>
<p>Local governments did a lot of the pushing. Pilot cities handed out digital yuan vouchers, paid some public salaries in it and encouraged merchants to accept it. Those campaigns drove the cumulative numbers up. They did not create a habit that survived once the incentives stopped.</p>
<p>Making the e-CNY a bank liability that pays interest changes the incentive for both sides. Banks now have a reason to promote it to customers because the balance sits on their own books and funds their business. Users get something closer to what they already value in a deposit, plus the payment features of the e-CNY wallet.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">China built the world's biggest digital cash experiment, then concluded that people want a deposit, not a banknote.</blockquote>

<h2>Cross-border is the real game</h2>
<p>If domestic use is a struggle, cross-border use is where the e-CNY is gaining ground. China has built a two-centre structure: an operations centre in Beijing that runs the system and an international operations centre in Shanghai, launched in September 2025, focused on cross-border cooperation.</p>
<p>In June 2026, the Shanghai centre onboarded 26 financial institutions to an upgraded cross-border e-CNY settlement platform, including Standard Chartered's China unit and overseas branches of large Chinese lenders, <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-06-17/china-expands-digital-yuans-global-reach-102455138.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Caixin reported</a>. The agreements extend e-CNY settlement links towards Singapore, the UAE and Brazil.</p>
<p>The biggest channel is mBridge, the multi-central-bank platform. The PBOC said cumulative mBridge transactions reached almost 500 billion yuan, about $74.4 billion, by the end of 2025, and more than 95% of them used the e-CNY. Atlantic Council data cited by Reuters gives a lower total, about $55.5 billion by January 2026, so the two counts should not be mixed. In July 2026, Industrial Bank used the platform for a 500 million yuan cross-border transfer tied to an equity acquisition. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">mBridge explainer</a> has the full story.</p>

<h2>What the e-CNY shows the rest of the world</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>Scale does not equal adoption.</b> Even 225 million wallets and trillions in volume did not make the e-CNY the default way to pay at home.</li>
  <li><b>Interest changes behaviour.</b> The move to deposit money is an admission that zero-yield digital cash struggles where good alternatives exist.</li>
  <li><b>Wholesale and cross-border use is the winning niche.</b> Settlement between banks across borders is where a central bank token has the clearest advantage over existing systems.</li>
  <li><b>The lines between money types are blurring.</b> An interest-bearing, bank-issued, central-bank-supervised token looks a lot like a tokenised deposit. We compare them in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins vs CBDCs vs tokenised deposits</a>.</li>
</ol>

<h2>What to watch</h2>
<p>Three signals will matter over the next year. First, whether interest-bearing balances actually lift domestic holdings. Second, how fast cross-border settlement grows now that the upgraded platform is live. Third, whether more central banks connect to China's infrastructure, or whether the alternatives, such as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> and the BIS-led Agorá, pull them elsewhere. For the global picture, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">our 2026 CBDC tracker</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Yuan-to-dollar conversions are those given in the cited reports at the time of publication.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/china-e-cny-digital-yuan.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>AI Fraud in Payments: Deepfakes, APP Scams and UK Refund Data</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/ai-fraud-in-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/ai-fraud-in-payments/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>UK APP scam losses rose 19% to £576m in 2025 as AI scaled investment fraud. What the PSR refund data shows, how deepfakes work and how banks fight back.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ai-fraud-in-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In 2025, people in the UK lost £221.5 million to investment scams paid by bank transfer. That was 40 percent more than a year earlier and the largest single category of authorised push payment fraud, according to <a href="https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/2026-06/UK%20Finance%20Fraud%20Report%202026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UK Finance's 2026 fraud report</a>. Over the same period, losses from criminals posing as police officers or bank staff fell 18 percent, and CEO fraud halved. The pattern tells you a lot about where artificial intelligence is changing payment crime. The old trick of a phone call pretending to be your bank is getting harder. The new trick, an ad, a chat, a dashboard showing fake gains, scales beautifully with generative tools.</p>

<p>This piece looks at the best public dataset on payment scams anywhere, the UK's, to show what AI is doing to fraud, how the world's first mandatory scam reimbursement regime is performing, and which defences are actually working.</p>

<h2>What makes AI fraud different</h2>

<p>Most payment fraud used to be unauthorised: a stolen card, a hacked login. Banks got very good at spotting it. Authorised push payment fraud, or APP, is different. The account holder makes the payment themselves, because they have been persuaded. No password is broken. The bank sees a legitimate customer, on a known device, sending money.</p>

<p>AI makes persuasion cheap. A criminal network that once needed fluent English speakers on phones can now generate polished messages, fake trading platform screens and convincing personas in any language, at any volume. The foreword to the UK Finance report, from fraud analytics firms BioCatch and Nasdaq Verafin, says criminals are using AI to refine impersonation scams and to produce deepfakes during account opening, with synthetic identities and "selfie injection" attacks used to beat identity checks. Their data from nine UK institutions showed scam attempts up 62 percent in 2025. They name agentic AI as the next likely force multiplier, a theme we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/">agentic payments</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>£576.4m</b><span>UK APP scam losses in 2025, up 19%</span></div><div class="stat"><b>89%</b><span>Share of reimbursable claim value refunded, Q1 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>£1.68bn</b><span>Unauthorised fraud stopped by UK banks in 2025</span></div></div>

<h2>The UK numbers, by scam type</h2>

<p>Total UK fraud losses reached £1.28 billion in 2025, up 4 percent, across more than 4 million confirmed cases. The split between the two kinds of fraud is the real story. Unauthorised losses fell 5 percent to £703.4 million, while banks prevented £1.68 billion, about 70p of every pound attempted. APP losses rose 19 percent to £576.4 million across 248,070 cases.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>APP scam type (UK, 2025)</th><th>Losses</th><th>Change</th><th>Cases</th><th>Change</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Investment</td><td>£221.5m</td><td>+40%</td><td>14,893</td><td>+26%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Purchase</td><td>£118.1m</td><td>+20%</td><td>175,809</td><td>+5%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Police or bank impersonation</td><td>£55.5m</td><td>-18%</td><td>6,016</td><td>-23%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Romance</td><td>£39.2m</td><td>+23%</td><td>6,335</td><td>+22%</td></tr>
<tr><td>CEO fraud</td><td>£5.6m</td><td>-53%</td><td>197</td><td>-29%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Two things stand out. First, investment scams are low in volume and very high in value: under 15,000 cases produced almost two-fifths of APP losses. Second, the scams that are growing are those built on long, content-heavy engagement over social media and messaging, exactly where AI cuts the criminal's cost. UK Finance found 66 percent of APP cases started online, accounting for 32 percent of losses, while telecoms were behind 17 percent of cases but 28 percent of losses. Phone-based scams are rarer but bigger.</p>

<p>The PSR's <a href="https://www.psr.org.uk/information-for-consumers/unmasking-how-fraudsters-target-uk-consumers-in-the-digital-age/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">December 2024 platform study</a>, using 2023 data from the 14 largest UK banking groups, found that Meta's platforms were involved in 54 percent of scam incidents and 18 percent of losses. Facebook alone appeared in 44 percent of purchase scams. That is where the fight increasingly sits: not in the bank's payment screen, but in the feed where the victim first meets the fraudster.</p>

<h2>Where deepfakes actually show up</h2>

<p>The public conversation about deepfakes focuses on dramatic cases, such as a cloned executive on a video call ordering a transfer. Those happen, but the UK data suggests they are not where most money is lost. CEO fraud, the classic business email or video impersonation, was only £5.6 million in 2025 and falling.</p>

<p>We see three places where synthetic media is doing real damage:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Investment ads.</b> Fake endorsements and fabricated news clips that steer people to bogus trading platforms. UK Finance links the investment surge to fraudulent adverts and social posts promising large returns, often in crypto assets.</li>
<li><b>Account opening.</b> Deepfaked selfies and synthetic identities used to open mule accounts that receive and move scam proceeds. This is the least visible use and arguably the most important, because every APP scam needs a receiving account.</li>
<li><b>Romance and relationship scams.</b> AI-generated photos, chat and voice notes sustain a persona for weeks. Romance losses rose 23 percent.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">The deepfake that costs the most is not the fake CEO. It is the fake customer opening a mule account.</blockquote>

<h2>How the UK reimbursement regime works</h2>

<p>On 7 October 2024 the UK became the first country to make scam reimbursement mandatory for an entire payment system. Under the Payment Systems Regulator's rules, firms must refund victims of APP scams sent over Faster Payments up to £85,000, with an optional £100 excess. The cost is shared between the sending and the receiving firm. That last part is the clever bit: banks that host mule accounts now pay for them.</p>

<p>The results so far are better than critics predicted. The PSR's <a href="https://www.psr.org.uk/news-and-updates/thought-pieces/thought-pieces/the-story-so-far-a-snapshot-of-what-we-ve-seen-since-our-app-scams-reimbursement-requirement-went-live/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first snapshot</a> showed 86 percent of money lost was returned in the first three months, around £27 million across about 46,000 claims. By Q1 2026 the <a href="https://www.psr.org.uk/information-for-consumers/app-scams-reimbursement-dashboard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reimbursement dashboard</a> recorded about 86,500 in-scope claims, £72.6 million refunded, 89 percent of reimbursable claim value returned, and 82 percent of claims closed within five business days. Only about 2 percent were rejected for lack of consumer caution.</p>

<p>The independent evaluation by <a href="https://www.frontier-economics.com/uk/en/news-and-insights/news/news-article-i22383-app-payment-scam-policies-reducing-fraud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Frontier Economics</a>, published in July 2026, estimated APP losses over Faster Payments fell about 21 percent after the rules came in, roughly £73 million a year, and that the overall reimbursement rate rose from 54 to 65 percent. It found some displacement to channels outside the rules, but not enough to cancel the gain.</p>

<p>How to square a 21 percent fall with UK Finance's 19 percent rise? They measure different things. Frontier estimates what losses would have been without the policy. UK Finance counts all APP losses, including those outside Faster Payments, which carried about 80 percent of APP value in 2025. Fraud still grew. It grew less than it otherwise would have.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one investment scam claim</h2>

<p>Consider a retired teacher in Leicester who sees a polished video ad for a trading platform, opens an account, and over six weeks sends five Faster Payments transfers totalling £12,000. The dashboard shows a growing balance. When she tries to withdraw, she is asked for a "release fee".</p>

<ol>
<li>She reports the scam to her bank. Under the rules, the claim is in scope because the payments went over Faster Payments to a UK account, and she reported within 13 months.</li>
<li>Her bank applies the £100 excess. The refundable amount is £11,900.</li>
<li>The sending and receiving firms share that cost. The receiving firm, which opened the account into which her money first landed, carries half the exposure. That gives it a direct incentive to catch the next deepfaked account application.</li>
<li>If she had instead paid by card into an overseas crypto platform, or sent funds from her own account to a crypto exchange first, the claim would most likely fall outside the scheme. That channel shift is exactly what the regulator is now examining.</li>
</ol>

<p>The example shows both the strength and the gap of the model. It works well where every hop is a domestic bank transfer. It works poorly when the money leaves the system, which is where professional fraud networks are moving. For safe-transfer basics see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a>.</p>

<h2>The defences that are working</h2>

<p>Banks are fighting AI with data. The most effective tools in the UK report are less glamorous than deepfake detectors:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Confirmation of Payee and in-journey warnings</b>, which check the account name before money moves and interrupt payments that match scam patterns.</li>
<li><b>Behavioural signals</b>, which look at how a customer types, hesitates or switches apps during a call, often a sign someone is being coached.</li>
<li><b>Mule disruption.</b> The UK Finance intelligence unit disrupted 12,438 money mules in 2025.</li>
<li><b>Telecom signals.</b> A scheme called Scams Signal passes real-time mobile network data to banks, flagging when a customer is on a long call with an unknown number while making a payment. A trial with a major platform improved fake-ad detection by 30 percent.</li>
<li><b>Branch interventions.</b> The Banking Protocol, where staff call police when a customer seems coerced, prevented £58.8 million in 2025.</li>
</ul>

<p>The common thread: none of these tries to detect whether a video is fake. They look at the payment context instead. That is the right bet. Detection of synthetic media is an arms race banks will not win. Context, such as a new payee, an unusual amount, an active phone call and a freshly opened receiving account, is much harder for an AI to fake at scale.</p>

<h2>Why instant payments raise the stakes everywhere</h2>

<p>Every country building fast account-to-account rails faces the same problem. Instant, irrevocable payments are wonderful for users and for fraudsters alike. India's UPI, Brazil's Pix and the US FedNow service all move money in seconds, which is also the time a scammer needs. We compare those systems in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payments around the world</a>.</p>

<p>The UK model, where liability is shared between the bank that sends and the bank that receives, is now the reference point other regulators study. Its lesson is simple. Put the cost where the data is. Receiving banks see the mule account. Platforms see the fake ad. Telecoms see the call. Fraud falls when each of them pays for what they miss.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the PSR's <a href="https://www.psr.org.uk/our-work/app-scams/app-scams-policy-roadmap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policy roadmap</a> schedules a formal consultation on changes to the reimbursement rules, including claims unresolved after 35 business days and treatment of investment returns.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> a PSR publication on the platforms and services fraudsters use most, covering 2024 and 2025 data, which will show whether Meta's share has moved.</li>
<li><b>May 2027:</b> the PSR's decision and revised legal directions, with implementation within six months.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> UK Finance's next annual report, the first full test of whether investment-scam growth slows.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> agentic AI. As software agents start initiating payments, the question of who authorised a transfer becomes legally harder. See our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/">AML and sanctions compliance</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains public fraud data and regulation. If you think you have been scammed, contact your bank immediately using a number you find yourself, not one given to you by the caller.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/ai-fraud-in-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>The Future of Bill Payments: Seven Shifts That Will End Due-Date Panic</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>Autopay with guardrails, cross-border billing, request-to-pay, stablecoin settlement and AI agents: seven changes reshaping how households will pay bills.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-bill-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Paying bills hasn't changed much in spirit for fifty years. A paper or email arrives, you find money, you pay before a date, and you hope you didn't forget one. The tools got faster. The anxiety stayed. That's about to change, and not because of any single technology.</p>

<h2>1. Bills will find you</h2>
<p>National networks like Bharat Connect already let apps fetch your bill live from the biller: amount, due date, name on the account. The next step is that you won't add billers at all. Banking and payment apps will spot them, suggest them and show the household's full picture in one place.</p>

<h2>2. Autopay becomes the default, with guardrails</h2>
<p>Standing instructions already exist for insurance, loans and subscriptions. They'll spread to everything, but with smarter limits: pay automatically if the bill is within a normal range, ask me if it's suddenly double.</p>

<h2>3. Borders stop mattering</h2>
<p>A huge number of households are now split between countries. Paying a bill in Kerala from Dubai, in Lagos from London or in Manila from Toronto is becoming as normal as paying one locally. Bill networks are opening up to overseas payments, and global aggregators already connect tens of thousands of billers across dozens of countries.</p>

<h2>4. Settlement moves to always-on rails</h2>
<p>Bank transfers still sleep on weekends. Stablecoin rails don't. Genuine stablecoin payments reached about $390 billion in 2025, and the businesses behind bill payments will increasingly settle with each other this way: instantly, around the clock, at a fraction of the cost.</p>

<h2>5. Your payment history becomes worth something</h2>
<p>Paying rent and utilities on time for years is one of the best signals of reliability there is, yet in most countries it does almost nothing for your credit. Expect that to change. A verified record of bills paid on time will help people, especially migrants new to a country, get fair access to credit.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The most reliable people in the world, the ones who never miss a bill for their parents, are often invisible to credit systems. That's a solvable problem.</blockquote>

<h2>6. AI agents will handle the routine</h2>
<p>Ask an assistant to "keep the house running" and it will check what's due, compare the electricity bill with last month, flag an unusual charge and pay the rest. The technology is close. What matters is trust: agents must work inside clear limits the user sets, with a full record of every action.</p>

<h2>7. Request-to-pay replaces the reminder</h2>
<p>Instead of a paper bill and a due date, billers will send a payment request straight to the customer's banking app, to approve, schedule or decline. Brazil's Pix Automático and the UK's work on variable recurring payments point the way. The customer controls the timing, without card-on-file fees.</p>

<h2>What doesn't change</h2>
<p>People still need to trust where their money goes. Every one of these shifts depends on regulated partners, clear receipts and real human support when something goes wrong. Technology can remove the anxiety from paying bills. It can't remove the need for a company that picks up the phone.</p>
<p>Put together, the destination is simple: bills that pay themselves on time, across any border, with a receipt the whole family can check.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-bill-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>US to Mexico Remittances: The 2025 Drop, the 1% Tax and What It Costs</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 13 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>Remittances to Mexico fell 4.6% in 2025 to $61.7 billion, the first drop in a decade. How the new 1% US tax on cash transfers works and what senders pay.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/us-mexico-remittance-corridor.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">For eleven straight years, the money Mexicans in the United States sent home grew. In 2025 that streak ended. A construction worker in Houston who used to wire $400 every two weeks to his parents in Michoacan may now send less often, or hold back savings in case he needs them himself. Add a new federal tax on cash-funded transfers from January 2026, and the busiest remittance corridor in the world is going through an unusual period.</p>

<h2>A first decline in more than a decade</h2>
<p>Banco de Mexico data showed remittances of $61.72 billion in 2025, down from $64.75 billion in 2024. Reporting by <a href="https://zetatijuana.com/2026/02/remesas-familiares-caen-4-56-en-2025-su-mayor-desplome-en-16-anos/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zeta Tijuana</a> described the roughly 4.6% fall as the largest in 16 years and the first after 11 years of growth. The number of transactions dropped faster, by 5.48% to 155.74 million, while the average transfer edged up to a record $397.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$61.7B</b><span>remittances to Mexico, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>-5.5%</b><span>fall in number of transfers</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$397</b><span>record average transfer</span></div></div>
<p>That combination, fewer but larger transfers, fits what economists cited: a softer US labour market for migrant-heavy sectors, and fear of immigration enforcement making some people less willing to visit a remittance agent or keep regular patterns. Analysts at Banco Base and BBVA Research both pointed to US labour conditions as the main swing factor for 2026.</p>
<p>It helps to keep the drop in proportion. Even after the fall, Mexico received more than $61 billion, and remittances remain one of the country's largest sources of foreign currency. The decline is real, but it comes from a very high base.</p>
<p>The picture in 2026 has been mixed. June brought $5.47 billion, a 4.2% rise from a year earlier, but monthly figures have moved up and down. For January to August 2026, inflows totalled $41.8 billion, up 2.2% on a year earlier, while the number of transfers fell 2.2% and the average transfer rose to $409, according to Banxico data reported by Por Esto. Nobody is calling a return to the old growth rate.</p>

<h2>The new 1% remittance tax, explained</h2>
<p>From 1 January 2026, a 1% federal excise tax applies to remittance transfers from the United States that are funded with cash, money orders, cashier's checks or similar physical instruments, under a new section 4475 of the tax code. The tax is imposed on the sender, but remittance providers collect it at the point of sale and remain liable if they fail to, according to <a href="https://www.cbh.com/insights/articles/excise-tax-on-remittance-transfers-irc-section-4475-explained/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cherry Bekaert</a>. Early drafts of the legislation proposed a much higher rate, which was cut to 1% before passage.</p>
<p>Who does not pay? Treasury's proposed regulations, published in April 2026, confirm that transfers funded from a US bank account, or by a US-issued debit or credit card, are outside the tax, according to <a href="https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/blog/irs-remittance-transfer-tax-proposed-regulations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greenback Tax Services</a>. In practice:</p>
<ul>
<li>$500 in cash handed over at an agent counter: $5 of tax.</li>
<li>$500 sent through an app funded from a checking account: no tax.</li>
<li>$500 paid with a debit card at the same agent: no tax.</li>
</ul>
<p>The IRS has given providers penalty relief for the first three quarters of 2026 while systems catch up, provided they make timely deposits.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The tax is small, but it lands precisely on the people least able to avoid it: those who still pay in cash.</blockquote>

<h2>Who actually pays it</h2>
<p>Banxico already classifies more than 99% of remittances to Mexico as electronic transfers, but that describes how the money travels, not how the sender funds it. Many senders still walk into a store with cash, especially those without a bank account or those wary of sharing documents. For them, the tax is a direct cost. For banked senders, it is a nudge to switch funding method.</p>
<p>Two side effects are worth watching. Some senders may move to card or account funding, which is the policy's apparent intent. Others may move to informal channels, which would make the flows harder to measure and less safe for families.</p>

<h2>What it costs to send money to Mexico</h2>
<p>Mexico is one of the cheapest major corridors. The World Bank's first-quarter 2025 report named it the least expensive G20 receiving market, at 4.98% on average for $200. Corridor data for the third quarter of 2025 shows sending $200 from the US cost an average of 3.86%, made up of a fee of about $5.22 and an exchange rate margin of 1.25%, according to <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/corridor/US/MX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide</a>. The cheapest offers in the sample, card-funded online transfers, came close to zero or even below the reference rate.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Funding method for $200</th><th>Typical provider cost</th><th>New excise tax</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Cash at an agent</td><td>Fee plus FX margin</td><td>$2.00</td></tr><tr><td>US debit or credit card</td><td>Fee plus FX margin</td><td>None</td></tr><tr><td>US bank account via app</td><td>Fee plus FX margin</td><td>None</td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>The excise is visible; the exchange rate margin often is not. A 2% margin on $400 is $8, which can dwarf both the fee and the tax. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> shows how to check it.</p>

<h2>Where the money goes in Mexico</h2>
<p>Remittances in Mexico pay for food, rent, school costs, medical bills and household utilities. A rising average transfer alongside falling transaction counts suggests families are bundling needs into fewer, larger payments. That is exactly the behaviour that direct bill payment from abroad could serve, a theme we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/">paying utility bills across borders</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch for the rest of 2026</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>US construction and hospitality hiring,</b> the clearest leading indicators for flows.</li>
<li><b>Final Treasury rules</b> on the excise, especially how providers report and how mixed-funding transfers are handled.</li>
<li><b>Peso strength.</b> A stronger peso means each dollar buys less at home, which can push senders to send more dollars, or to stretch the same amount further.</li>
<li><b>Channel shifts</b> from cash to accounts and cards, which Banxico data alone will not show.</li>
</ul>
<p>The corridor is not shrinking dramatically. But for the first time in years, it is not simply growing, and that changes the conversation for everyone in it.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information, not tax advice. Rules on the remittance excise were still being finalised at the time of writing.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/us-mexico-remittance-corridor.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Yield-Bearing Stablecoins vs Tokenised Treasuries After the Yield Ban</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>Tokenised Treasury funds like BUIDL and BENJI pay yield; GENIUS Act stablecoins cannot. How sUSDe, sUSDS and tokenised money funds work, and their risks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Here is the awkward fact at the centre of the stablecoin business. The dollars backing your USDC are earning around 3.5% a year in Treasury bills, and you, the holder, get none of it. American law now says it must stay that way. So a parallel market has grown up to give onchain dollars a yield: tokenised money market funds on one side, crypto-native "savings" stablecoins on the other. They look similar on a wallet screen. Legally and economically they are very different things.</p>

<h2>Why payment stablecoins cannot pay interest</h2>
<p>The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, bars licensed stablecoin issuers from paying holders any interest or yield simply for holding, using or keeping the coin. Congress had two reasons. Regulators wanted payment stablecoins to stay payment instruments rather than become unregistered investment products. And banks argued, loudly, that interest-paying stablecoins would pull deposits away from them. A <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IF13174.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congressional Research Service brief</a> from March 2026 notes that a Treasury advisory body identified about $6.6 trillion of US transactional deposits as potentially exposed.</p>
<p>The statute only names issuers, which left a gap: exchanges and wallets that receive reserve income from issuers can pass some of it on as "rewards". The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has proposed closing much of that gap with a presumption that an issuer breaks the rule if an affiliate or related partner pays yield on its behalf, according to <a href="https://perkinscoie.com/insights/update/stablecoin-interest-yield-and-rewards-occ-proposes-sweeping-regulations-under" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Perkins Coie</a>. The industry disputes that reading, and the final rules are still pending. Singapore's draft stablecoin legislation, published in September 2026, also bans issuers from paying interest. We cover the wider rulebook in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our GENIUS Act and MiCA explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>Option one: tokenised Treasury funds</h2>
<p>The cleanest way to earn yield onchain is to hold a token that is itself a share in a regulated fund. These are securities, sold mostly to institutions and qualified investors, and they pay what the underlying bills pay.</p>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$14.9B</b><span>tokenised US Treasury funds, 14 October 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>3.52%</b><span>7-day yield on tokenised Treasuries, per rwa.xyz</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>117</b><span>tokenised Treasury products tracked</span></div>
</div>
<p>According to <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/treasuries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rwa.xyz</a>, the five biggest on 14 October 2026 were Circle's USYC at $2.38 billion, Ondo's USDY at $2.35 billion, BlackRock's BUIDL at $2.16 billion, Franklin Templeton's iBENJI at $1.71 billion and WisdomTree's WTGXX at $1.23 billion. JPMorgan's onchain money fund was sixth at about $738 million.</p>
<p>The design details matter. BlackRock launched BUIDL in March 2024 with a $5 million minimum; it holds cash, Treasury bills and repo, and pays accrued dividends monthly as new tokens. Franklin Templeton's money fund, launched on Stellar in 2021, was the first US-registered money fund to use a public blockchain as its official ownership record, and its yield accrues throughout the day. Holders of these tokens are fund investors, with the protections and restrictions that implies: they generally must pass investor checks, and transfers can be limited to approved wallets.</p>
<p>Their biggest new use is as collateral. Exchanges and lenders increasingly accept tokenised Treasury funds in place of stablecoins, so a trading firm can post margin that keeps earning interest. Circle's Arc network made BUIDL and USYC available for trading and lending at launch in September 2026.</p>

<h2>Option two: crypto-native yield stablecoins</h2>
<p>The second family is built inside DeFi and is available to anyone with a wallet in most places. As of May 2026, according to <a href="https://eco.com/support/en/articles/15253993-susde-vs-susds-vs-sdai-2026-yield-bearing-stablecoins-compared" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a comparison by Eco</a>, the three biggest worked as follows:</p>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Token</th><th>Yield source</th><th>Listed yield (May 2026)</th><th>Main risk</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>sUSDe (Ethena)</td><td>Perpetual futures funding plus ETH staking</td><td>~7% to 12%, variable</td><td>Funding can turn negative; exchange counterparties</td></tr>
<tr><td>sUSDS (Sky)</td><td>Loan fees plus Treasury bill income</td><td>3.75%</td><td>Governance can cut rate; collateral risk</td></tr>
<tr><td>sDAI (Sky)</td><td>Same engine as sUSDS</td><td>~2.5% to 3%</td><td>Lower yield; being phased toward USDS</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>These are not payment stablecoins in the GENIUS sense, and their yields are not risk-free. Ethena's model, in particular, earns money from traders paying to hold leveraged long positions. When the market turns, that income can vanish. During the liquidation cascade of 10 October 2025, USDe briefly traded as low as $0.65 on Binance, although it held close to a dollar elsewhere, and its supply fell from about $14.7 billion to about $6.3 billion over the following two months.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A yield of 4% that someone else is paying you to hold a dollar is never just a dollar.</blockquote>

<h2>How to think about the risks</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Legal wrapper.</b> A tokenised fund share is a regulated security with a manager, custodian and auditor. A DeFi savings token depends on smart contracts and governance votes.</li>
  <li><b>Liquidity at redemption.</b> Fund tokens redeem through the manager on business days. sUSDe has a seven-day cooldown, or a discounted sale on decentralised exchanges in a hurry.</li>
  <li><b>Where the yield comes from.</b> Treasury yield falls when the Federal Reserve cuts. Funding-rate yield falls when traders stop paying to be leveraged, and can turn negative.</li>
  <li><b>Contagion.</b> DAI lost its peg briefly in March 2023 because it held USDC when USDC itself wobbled. Stacked products inherit the weaknesses of everything underneath. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">history of stablecoin depegs</a> shows how quickly that can travel.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Our view: the split is healthy</h2>
<p>It would be easy to see the yield ban as regulators protecting banks, and there is some of that. But separating "money to spend" from "money to park" is how the traditional system already works: a current account pays little, a money fund pays the market rate, and nobody confuses the two. A hotel receptionist in Doha sending part of her salary home each month needs a token that is always worth exactly a dollar and redeemable in a day. A company sitting on a few million dollars of onchain working capital needs a fund share that earns interest and can be posted as collateral. Asking one token to do both jobs is how you get runs.</p>
<p>The open question is where the rewards line ends up in the United States. If the final rules let exchanges and payment apps keep sharing reserve income, holders will still see a yield, just from the platform rather than the issuer. If they do not, more cash will move into tokenised funds. For the wider picture of tokenised assets, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/">our 2026 RWA report</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This article explains how products work and is not financial advice. Yields change frequently and past rates do not guarantee future returns.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>What Remittances Pay For: Food, School Fees, Medicine and Bills</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>Survey data on what remittances buy: food, school, health, housing and debt. Why most of the money is household bills, and what that means for pricing it.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-remittances-pay-for.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In March 2026, the month that held Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, foreign workers in Saudi Arabia sent home SAR 16.92 billion, the largest single month on record. The headline was reported as a capital flow. At the other end it was something much smaller: thousands of rent payments in Dhaka, school fees in Kerala, grocery runs in Mindanao, a tank of cooking gas in Kathmandu. Remittances are measured as one big number. They are spent as a long list of household bills.</p>

<p>That distinction sounds academic. It is not. If most remittance money goes to recurring household costs, then the right way to judge a remittance system is how cheaply and reliably it pays those costs, not just how cheaply it moves a lump of cash. This article looks at the survey evidence on what the money actually buys, where the data falls short, and why bill payment is the overlooked core of the business.</p>

<h2>The data is thinner than the headlines suggest</h2>

<p>Start with a confession on behalf of the whole field. For a flow measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, there is surprisingly little recent, representative data on how remittances are spent. Central banks track inflows by channel and source country. The Reserve Bank of India's sixth remittances survey, published in March 2025, covered 30 banks and showed that India received $118.7 billion in 2023-24, mostly classed as family maintenance, but it says little about what families did with it. National household surveys ask, but irregularly. Many of the most cited studies were fielded between 2004 and 2015.</p>

<p>What follows is therefore a mosaic. The pieces come from different countries and different years. They point in the same direction often enough to be useful.</p>

<h2>What the surveys say: basic needs first, by a wide margin</h2>

<p>The most detailed public breakdown is still Manuel Orozco's 2004 survey of Latin American remittance recipients, presented to the <a href="https://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/csw50/statements/CSW%20HLP%20Manuel%20Orozco.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UN Commission on the Status of Women</a>. Asked why they received money, 80.55 percent of recipients said basic family needs. Emergencies accounted for 6.2 percent, "enjoying nice things" 4.5 percent, and paying back debts owed to the sender about 4 percent. When asked what the money went on, food led for both men and women, followed by clothing, school costs, housing and health care.</p>

<p>Other sources fill in the picture.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Study</th><th>Where and when</th><th>Main finding on use</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Orozco survey</td><td>Latin America, 2004</td><td>80.55% receive money for basic family needs; food, clothing, school, housing and health top the list</td></tr>
<tr><td>IOM and UN-INSTRAW</td><td>Guatemala, 2007</td><td>About 50% of remittances go to consumption goods; women spend slightly more on health and education</td></tr>
<tr><td>UN Women (via GSMA)</td><td>Multi-country, 2017</td><td>Women recipients allocate more to health care, food, shelter and education than men</td></tr>
<tr><td>CeSPI (via GSMA)</td><td>Migrants in Italy, 2019</td><td>29% of Filipino migrant women cite real estate as a goal; 9% of Senegalese women cite business</td></tr>
<tr><td>Suri and Jack</td><td>Kenya, from 2008</td><td>Mobile money access raised daily per-capita consumption by 2%, double for female-headed households</td></tr>
<tr><td>IFAD</td><td>Global</td><td>At least 40% of remittance flows reach rural areas</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The <a href="https://ddrn.dk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Gender-migration-remittances-infosheet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IOM's Guatemala work</a> is a useful reality check on the investment story. Half the money went on consumption. Much of the rest went on things that look like consumption but behave like investment: school fees, medicine, home repairs. The <a href="https://www.gsma.com/about-us/regions/europe/?p=8234" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GSMA's review</a> of the CeSPI work shows that investment goals exist, real estate among Filipino women in particular, but they sit on top of a base of everyday spending.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Remittances are reported as a capital flow. They are spent as a household budget.</blockquote>

<h2>India: family maintenance, concentrated by state</h2>

<p>For India the most recent official data is the RBI survey, summarised by <a href="https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/india-s-remittance-trends-2024/print_manually" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Drishti IAS</a> and <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/advanced-economies-overtake-gulf-nations-in-share-of-remittances-to-india-125032100650_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a>. It shows a sharply concentrated pattern. Maharashtra received 20.5 percent of inward remittances in 2023-24, Kerala 19.7 percent, Tamil Nadu 10.4 percent, Telangana 8.1 percent and Karnataka 7.7 percent. Digital channels carried 73.5 percent of transactions. Full-year inflows rose to $135.46 billion in 2024-25, per RBI.</p>

<p>The source mix tells you something about use. The US now supplies 27.7 percent of India's remittances and the six Gulf states 38 percent combined. A software engineer in New Jersey sending money to parents in Pune and a mason in Riyadh sending wages to a family in Malappuram are both coded as "family maintenance". The first is often topping up a comfortable household or paying a specific bill, such as a parent's hospital admission or a property tax demand. The second is frequently the household's main income. Our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">bill payments for NRIs</a> and caring for parents from abroad look at the first case; the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia corridor</a> covers the second.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>80.55%</b><span>of Latin American recipients cite basic family needs</span></div><div class="stat"><b>P129,000</b><span>average remittance per OFW in 2024 (PSA)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>73.5%</b><span>of India's remittance transactions were digital in 2023-24</span></div></div>

<h2>The Philippines: a household budget in pesos</h2>

<p>The Philippine Statistics Authority's annual survey gives one of the cleaner views of remittances at household scale. In 2024, an estimated 2.19 million overseas Filipino workers sent or brought home P262.2 billion, <a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/?p=302711" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Inquirer reported</a>: P214.31 billion in cash sent, P40.56 billion in cash carried home and P7.33 billion in kind. The average was P129,000 per worker, up from P123,000 in 2023. Most OFWs work in elementary occupations, and among women the share is 64.1 percent, according to the <a href="https://psa.gov.ph/content/2023-overseas-filipino-workers-final-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PSA's 2023 results</a>.</p>

<p>Those averages describe a household budget, not a portfolio. Our deep dive on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/">Philippine remittances and OFWs</a> looks at how that money moves.</p>

<h2>Worked example: the cost of paying bills the long way</h2>

<p>Take the PSA average and treat it as a household's annual remittance income: P129,000 a year, or about P10,750 a month.</p>

<p><b>Step one, the transfer.</b> If that money moved at the World Bank's global average cost for a $200 transfer, 6.36 percent in Q3 2025, the household would lose about P8,200 a year to fees and exchange margins. That is roughly three-quarters of one month's remittance gone.</p>

<p><b>Step two, the bills.</b> Now follow the money after it lands. Suppose the family uses it for the categories the surveys keep finding: groceries, school fees, electricity, water, a phone plan, medicine. Each of those may involve another step: a cash withdrawal, a bus ride to a payment centre, a counter fee or a late charge if the transfer arrived after the due date. None of those costs appear in the remittance price.</p>

<p><b>Step three, the alternative.</b> If part of that P10,750 goes straight to the school, the utility or the pharmacy from abroad, the sender sees the bill paid and the family skips the cash-out and the queue. The transfer cost does not vanish, but the second layer of costs can. That is why we have argued that <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/">bills are the real remittance</a>.</p>

<p>The example is simplified. Real households mix cash and direct payments, and many corridors are much cheaper than the global average. But the structure holds: the headline remittance fee is only the first of several costs on the way from a salary abroad to a paid bill at home.</p>

<h2>Remittances as insurance, and why timing matters</h2>

<p>The basic needs figure hides a second function. In the Orozco data, 6.2 percent of recipients cited emergencies as the reason they received money. That understates how important emergency transfers are, because a household that receives regular money for food also relies on the same sender when someone is admitted to hospital.</p>

<p>The March 2026 Saudi spike, reported by <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1905372" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Argaam</a> from central bank data, shows the seasonal side. Remittances jumped 35 percent from February as Eid spending, school terms and family obligations lined up. Bills, unlike Eid gifts, arrive every month whether or not the sender has had a good month. Late money means late fees, a disconnected meter or a child kept out of an exam hall. Reliability is the product.</p>

<p>Evidence on savings points the same way. In the <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/fr/print/pdf/node/1551?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">El Salvador experiment</a> summarised by J-PAL, giving migrants control over accounts in their home country roughly doubled household savings from a base of about $430. Senders want their money to land where they intend it. Direct bill payment and earmarked accounts are two versions of that same wish.</p>

<h2>What this means</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Price the whole journey.</b> The SDG target of remittance costs below 3 percent measures one hop. For a family that turns cash into school fees and electricity, the true cost includes the second hop. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/">paying utility bills across borders</a> looks at how that hop is changing.</li>
<li><b>Measure use, not just volume.</b> National surveys should ask what money is spent on as routinely as they ask where it came from.</li>
<li><b>Design for regularity.</b> Monthly bills reward predictable payment dates, not one-off promotions.</li>
</ul>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> PSA's survey of overseas Filipinos for 2025, expected around December following the December 2025 release for 2024, will show whether the average remittance keeps climbing from P129,000.</li>
<li><b>Ramadan 2027 (from about February):</b> the next seasonal peak in Gulf outflows, and a test of whether March 2026's SAR 16.92 billion record holds.</li>
<li><b>End of 2027:</b> the G20 deadline for its cross-border payments targets. A cost target that ignored the bill-payment hop would miss much of what households actually pay.</li>
<li><b>RBI's next remittances survey:</b> the sixth round came out in March 2025. A seventh that asked about purpose in more detail would give India its first good picture of what the world's largest remittance flow buys.</li>
</ul>

<p>Read the surveys together and the conclusion is plain. Remittances mostly pay for food, schooling, health care, housing and the monthly bills that keep a household running. The systems that carry them should be judged on how well they pay those bills, on time, at a price the family can see.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-remittances-pay-for.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How to Pay Utility Bills Back Home From Abroad: A Family Guide</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>Electricity, water, mobile and school fees: a step-by-step guide to paying household bills in your home country from abroad, safely and without overpaying.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/pay-utility-bills-across-borders.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">You've moved abroad for work, but part of your heart (and your monthly budget) is still back home. The electricity bill still comes. So do school fees, the internet bill and your parents' insurance. Here's how to stay on top of them from wherever you live, without paying more than you need to.</p>

<h2>Step 1: Make a list of every household bill</h2>
<p>It sounds obvious, but most families have never written it down. For each bill note:</p>
<ul>
  <li>The biller's name and the customer or account number</li>
  <li>The usual amount and the due date</li>
  <li>Whose name is on the account</li>
  <li>How it's paid today, and by whom</li>
</ul>
<p>Keep this somewhere both you and a trusted person back home can see it.</p>

<h2>Step 2: Choose how you'll pay</h2>
<p>You have three broad options:</p>
<table class="cmp">
  <thead><tr><th>Method</th><th>Good for</th><th>Watch out for</th></tr></thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr><td>Send money, family pays</td><td>Flexibility, cash needs</td><td>Two hops, delays, money diverted to other uses</td></tr>
    <tr><td>Your home-country bank app</td><td>If you kept an account back home</td><td>Overseas login issues, OTPs to a home SIM, FX costs funding it</td></tr>
    <tr><td>Direct cross-border bill pay</td><td>Paying the biller straight from abroad</td><td>Coverage varies by country and biller; check the rate</td></tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<h2>Step 3: Check the real cost</h2>
<p>The World Bank's global average cost of sending money home is about 6.36% (Q3 2025), and digital services are cheaper on average, around 4.59%. When comparing:</p>
<ol>
  <li>Look at the final amount in local currency, not the fee.</li>
  <li>Compare the exchange rate with the mid-market rate you see on Google.</li>
  <li>Count the second hop. If you send money and someone else pays the bill, add any charges at their end.</li>
</ol>

<h2>Step 4: Set reminders, or better, autopay</h2>
<p>Due dates in two time zones are easy to miss. Set reminders a week ahead, or use standing instructions where the biller supports them. In India, Bharat Connect supports recurring payments for many categories.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The goal isn't just paying on time. It's that nobody back home ever has to call you about a disconnection notice.</blockquote>

<h2>Step 5: Keep the receipts</h2>
<p>Save the biller's reference number for every payment. If a payment goes missing, that reference is what customer service will ask for. National bill networks give you a standard one, which makes complaints much easier.</p>

<h2>Country notes</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>India:</b> NRIs can pay through Bharat Connect-linked services abroad, covering utilities, school fees, insurance and municipal taxes.</li>
  <li><b>Philippines, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Nepal:</b> mobile top-ups and many utilities can be paid through international bill-payment and top-up networks.</li>
  <li><b>Gulf and UK senders:</b> many exchange houses and banks now include bill payment alongside transfers. Compare them on the final amount, not the headline fee.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Keep it manageable</h2>
<p>Juggling several apps and logins is tiring. Review the list from Step 1 every few months, close payment routes you no longer use, and make sure someone at home knows where the reference numbers are kept. Those small habits save money and a few anxious phone calls.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/pay-utility-bills-across-borders.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>M-Pesa and Mobile Money in 2026: $2.1 Trillion and the Border Gap</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>Mobile money moved $2.1 trillion in 2025, two-thirds of it in Sub-Saharan Africa. A look at M-Pesa, the GSMA data and why cross-border flows still lag.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mpesa-mobile-money-africa.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A shopkeeper in Nairobi's Eastleigh market probably handles more digital payments in a week than a corner shop in many rich countries. Mobile money, which began as a way to send airtime-like credit by text message, moved $2.1 trillion in 2025. Most of that happened inside single countries. The next chapter, getting it across borders cheaply, is proving much harder.</p>

<h2>The scale in one paragraph</h2>
<p>The GSMA's <a href="https://www.gsma.com/sotir/wp-content/plugins/plugin_gsma_sotir/reports/The-State-of-the-Industry-Report-2026_English.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">State of the Industry Report 2026</a> counts 2.3 billion registered mobile money accounts worldwide, up 268 million in a year, the biggest annual jump on record. Some 593 million were active in a given month. Transaction value rose 23% to $2.1 trillion. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for about two-thirds of that value, roughly $1.4 trillion, and more than half of all registered accounts. There are 347 live services in 102 countries.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$2.1T</b><span>mobile money value, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>593M</b><span>monthly active accounts</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$45B</b><span>international remittances via mobile money</span></div></div>

<h2>How mobile money works</h2>
<p>Mobile money is a wallet held by a telecom operator or its licensed subsidiary, tied to a phone number. The money behind it sits in trust accounts at commercial banks. Customers turn cash into e-money at agents, small shops that act as human ATMs, and then send it, spend it or pay bills from a basic phone menu or an app.</p>
<p>The agent network is the part outsiders underestimate. There were 30 million registered agents in 2025, 11 million active each month, and they cashed in $430 billion. In places where the nearest bank branch is a bus ride away, the agent is the bank.</p>

<h2>M-Pesa: the reference case</h2>
<p>Safaricom's M-Pesa, launched in Kenya in 2007, remains the best-known example. In the year to March 2026 it processed Ksh41.68 trillion in transactions, <a href="https://peopledaily.digital/business/m-pesa-processes-ksh41-7t-in-a-year-heres-where-the-money-went" target="_blank" rel="noopener">People Daily reported</a>. M-Pesa revenue rose 13.4% to Ksh182.7 billion, making up 45.6% of Safaricom's Kenyan service revenue. The group counted 43.69 million active M-Pesa customers, and its newer Ethiopian business reached 5.2 million 90-day active users, more than double the previous year, according to <a href="https://hapakenya.com/2026/05/07/safaricom-hits-historic-ksh-118-4b-net-profit-as-kenya-core-business-surges/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HapaKenya</a>.</p>
<p>Kenya also shows why the model is hard to copy. M-Pesa arrived when Safaricom already dominated mobile phones in the country, banks were thin on the ground outside cities, and regulators chose to let the service grow before writing detailed rules. Few markets line up all three conditions at once, which is why some mobile money launches elsewhere stalled for years before finding their footing.</p>
<p>The interesting shift is what people use it for. Ten years ago M-Pesa was mostly about sending money home from the city. Today the growth is in merchant payments, overdraft-style credit, savings and insurance. Safaricom itself names wealth, insurance and merchant solutions as the next engines.</p>

<h2>Merchants are the new frontier</h2>
<p>Globally, merchant payments were the fastest-growing use case in 2025, up 42% to $155 billion, the GSMA says. That matters because it keeps money inside the digital system. Every time a customer pays a shop from a wallet rather than cashing out, the operator avoids the cost of an agent cash-out, and the merchant avoids handling notes.</p>
<p>Interoperability has helped. Transfers from banks into mobile wallets reached $167 billion and wallet-to-bank transfers $163 billion. The wall between bank accounts and mobile money, once a defining feature of African finance, is getting thinner.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Mobile money solved the domestic problem. Moving money between countries is a regulatory puzzle, not a technical one.</blockquote>

<p>For a small trader, that changes the economics of a day. A vegetable seller who takes wallet payments all morning can pay her supplier from the same balance at noon, without a trip to an agent and without carrying cash home.</p>

<h2>The cross-border gap</h2>
<p>International remittances through mobile money rose 23% to $45 billion in 2025, across 381 million transfers. That is meaningful, but small next to $2.1 trillion in total value. Most cross-border money into Africa still travels through banks and money transfer operators before landing in a wallet.</p>
<p>The cost shows it. The World Bank's <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/rpw_main_report_and_annex_q125_1_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Remittance Prices Worldwide</a> data for early 2025 put the average cost of sending $200 to Sub-Saharan Africa at 8.78%, the highest of any region, against a global average of 6.49% at the time (6.36% in the later Q3 2025 data). Digital transfers averaged 4.85% in that quarter, which is part of why mobile money matters for <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/">African remittance costs</a>.</p>
<p>Kenya illustrates the stakes. The country received about $5.04 billion in diaspora remittances in 2025, with roughly half coming from the United States, according to Central Bank of Kenya data reported by <a href="https://itweb.africa/article/kenya-remittances-hit-5bn-in-2025-as-growth-slows/dgp45qaBm2GvX9l8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ITWeb Africa</a>. Growth slowed to under 2%, the weakest in more than 15 years.</p>
<p>Why is cross-border so hard? Each country has its own e-money rules, its own foreign exchange controls and its own data laws. The GSMA found 24% of providers said rules on transferring data across borders had hindered their operations. Two wallets in neighbouring countries may each work perfectly at home and still be unable to talk to each other without a bank, an FX dealer and a compliance team in between.</p>

<h2>Where stablecoins come in</h2>
<p>This is the gap that dollar <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">stablecoins</a> are trying to fill. A sender in Johannesburg could, in principle, move a dollar token to a recipient in Lagos in seconds for cents, with conversion to local currency at either end. Some fintechs already use stablecoins behind the scenes to settle between African corridors. The hard parts are the same ones mobile money faces: local licensing, cash-out liquidity and regulators wary of dollarisation. Technology alone will not close the gap, but it may lower the cost of the settlement leg.</p>

<h2>What to watch</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Activity, not accounts.</b> Almost three-quarters of registered accounts are inactive in a given month. The 25.7% monthly activity rate is the number that shows real use.</li>
<li><b>Regional payment systems.</b> Pan-African and regional switches that connect wallets across borders could make the $45 billion figure grow much faster.</li>
<li><b>Ethiopia.</b> A large, newly opened market where M-Pesa is still early is a live test of whether the Kenyan model travels.</li>
</ul>
<p>Mobile money is no longer an emerging-market curiosity. It is one of the world's largest retail payment networks, built on phones and corner shops. The question for the next five years is whether it can do for cross-border payments what it already did for the trip from Nairobi to the village.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mpesa-mobile-money-africa.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Basel Crypto Rules for Banks 2026: Group 1b Stablecoins Explained</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/basel-crypto-rules-banks/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/basel-crypto-rules-banks/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>How Basel bank capital rules treat crypto and stablecoins: the four groups, the Group 1b stablecoin tests, the 1,250% fallback weight and the 2025-26 review.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/basel-crypto-rules-banks.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A risk officer at a mid-sized bank in Frankfurt is asked two questions in the same week. Can the bank hold a dollar stablecoin on its balance sheet to settle client trades? And could it issue a token of its own? Both answers start in the same place: a chapter of the Basel Framework called SCO60, which decides how much capital a bank must hold against any cryptoasset. Get the classification right and a stablecoin can be close to cash. Get it wrong and the bank may need to hold capital equal to the entire position.</p>

<p>Capital rules sound dry, but they are the hidden price tag on everything banks do. If holding a token costs a bank a dollar of equity for every dollar of exposure, it will not hold the token, and it will not build products around it. That is why the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's crypto standard, and its decision in November 2025 to fast-track a review of parts of it, matter far beyond the world of bank supervisors.</p>

<h2>What the Basel Committee decided, and when</h2>

<p>The Basel Committee, whose 45 members from 28 jurisdictions set the global minimum standards for bank regulation, published its prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures on 16 December 2022. The <a href="https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final standard</a> covers tokenised traditional assets, stablecoins and unbacked cryptoassets, and was slotted into the consolidated Basel Framework as a new chapter, SCO60. Members originally agreed to implement it by 1 January 2025. In its <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p221216.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, the Committee signalled that unbacked cryptoassets and stablecoins with ineffective stabilisation mechanisms would get a "conservative prudential treatment".</p>

<p>On 17 July 2024 the Committee tightened the criteria for stablecoins to receive the preferential Group 1b treatment, added a disclosure framework with standard tables and templates, and pushed implementation to 1 January 2026, according to the <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p240717.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS press release</a>. The Basel Framework now lists SCO60 and the matching disclosure chapter, DIS55, as in force from that date.</p>

<p>Then the market moved faster than the rulebook. At its 18-19 November 2025 meeting in Mexico City, the Committee said that in light of recent developments in cryptoasset markets it would expedite a review of targeted elements of the standard, per its <a href="https://www.bis.org/press/p251119.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">meeting statement</a>. It did not say which elements, or when the review would finish.</p>

<h2>The four groups</h2>

<p>Everything in SCO60 flows from a single classification step. Each cryptoasset a bank touches lands in one of four buckets, set out in the <a href="https://www.bis.org/committees/bcbs/basel-framework/standard/sco/60/inforce/2026-01-01/published/2024-11-27" target="_blank" rel="noopener">framework text</a>.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Group</th><th>What qualifies</th><th>Typical examples</th><th>Capital outcome</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Group 1a</td><td>Tokenised traditional assets that meet all classification conditions</td><td>Tokenised bonds, tokenised deposits, tokenised fund units</td><td>Broadly follows the asset the token represents</td></tr>
<tr><td>Group 1b</td><td>Cryptoassets with effective stabilisation mechanisms that meet the conditions and pass the redemption risk test</td><td>Fully reserved, supervised fiat stablecoins</td><td>Based on the reserve assets and the claim on the redeemer</td></tr>
<tr><td>Group 2a</td><td>Assets that fail the conditions but meet hedging recognition criteria</td><td>Large, liquid unbacked tokens with deep markets</td><td>Conservative, with limited recognition of hedges</td></tr>
<tr><td>Group 2b</td><td>Everything else</td><td>Most unbacked tokens; stablecoins that fail the tests</td><td>The most punitive treatment in the standard</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The design choice is clear. Group 1 is meant for things that are traditional finance in a new wrapper. Group 2 is a holding pen for assets supervisors consider too volatile or opaque to model, and it is deliberately expensive.</p>

<h2>The Group 1b tests in detail</h2>

<p>For stablecoins, Group 1b is the prize. To get there, the token must satisfy four conditions plus issuer-specific requirements.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Condition 1, a real peg.</b> The stabilisation mechanism must link the token's value to reference assets at all times. Pegs that reference other cryptoassets, or that adjust supply through a protocol, do not qualify. Algorithmic stablecoins are out by design.</li>
<li><b>Condition 2, enforceable rights.</b> Holders' rights must be clearly defined and legally enforceable with settlement finality, and full redemption must be possible within <b>5 calendar days</b> of a request.</li>
<li><b>Condition 3, a sound network.</b> The token and its underlying network must be designed and run to manage material risks, with key network elements well defined and traceable.</li>
<li><b>Condition 4, regulated operators.</b> Entities handling redemption, transfers, storage or reserve management must be regulated and supervised or subject to appropriate risk standards.</li>
</ul>

<p>On top of this sits the <b>redemption risk test</b>. Reserves, net of other claims, must at all times, including under extreme stress, at least equal the total peg value outstanding. For a currency-pegged coin, reserves should be mostly short-term, high-quality assets in the same currency as the peg. The issuer must disclose the amount in circulation every trading day, reserve composition at least weekly, obtain independent verification at least every six months and a full external audit each year. Finally, the issuer itself must be supervised and subject to prudential capital and liquidity requirements. Banks must also run a basis risk test showing the token tracks its reference asset, and supervisors can override a bank's own classification.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Basel does not ask whether a stablecoin is popular. It asks whether it would survive a run.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: why classification is the whole game</h2>

<p>Take a bank with a USD 10 million position in a dollar stablecoin. Under Basel, minimum total capital is 8% of risk-weighted assets, so the risk weight assigned to the position determines how much equity it ties up.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Fallback treatment.</b> SCO60 says that where a bank cannot look through pooled reference assets, it must apply a <b>1,250%</b> risk weight. USD 10 million x 1,250% = USD 125 million of risk-weighted assets. At 8%, that requires <b>USD 10 million of capital</b>: one dollar of capital per dollar of exposure.</li>
<li><b>A lighter comparison.</b> If the same claim were weighted at 100%, a weight used here purely for comparison, risk-weighted assets would be USD 10 million and required capital <b>USD 800,000</b>.</li>
<li><b>The difference.</b> Moving from the punitive bucket to a normal one cuts the capital charge by a factor of 12.5, from USD 10 million to USD 800,000.</li>
</ol>

<p>For a bank earning a few basis points on settlement activity, the first outcome makes the business impossible and the second makes it ordinary. That is why issuers, banks and industry groups have spent three years arguing over the wording of the Group 1b conditions.</p>

<h2>What this means for banks issuing stablecoins</h2>

<p>The rules cut both ways for banks that want to issue, rather than hold, a dollar or euro token.</p>

<p>On one side, banks are natural Group 1b issuers. They are already supervised with capital and liquidity requirements, which is exactly what the issuer test demands. A bank-issued coin backed by short-dated government debt and redeemable within days is the model case the standard was written for.</p>

<p>On the other side, a bank has an alternative that is cleaner still: the tokenised deposit. A tokenised deposit is simply a bank deposit recorded on a ledger, so it sits in Group 1a and carries the same treatment as the deposit itself. It does not need a separate reserve pool, and it stays inside deposit insurance and resolution rules. Our explainers on tokenised deposits and on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins versus CBDCs versus tokenised deposits</a> set out the trade-offs.</p>

<p>Meanwhile, the largest stablecoins are issued by non-banks under new national regimes. The US GENIUS Act cleared Congress in July 2025 after a 308-122 House vote, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2025-07-17-us-house-votes-on-crypto-legislation-sending-stablecoin-genius-act-to-trumps-desk-clarity-to-senate-363230" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>, and in October 2026 the European Banking Authority <a href="https://www.eba.europa.eu/publications-and-media/press-releases/eba-classifies-usdc-first-significant-e-money-token-european-union" target="_blank" rel="noopener">classified USDC</a> as the first significant e-money token under MiCA, out of 45 notified, with direct EBA supervision of its reserves and liquidity from 12 November 2026. As of October 2026, USDC supply is about USD 73 billion and USDT about USD 184 billion, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-15-eba-designates-circles-usdc-as-the-eus-first-significant-e-money-token-418637" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. Whether a bank can treat exposures to those coins as Group 1b depends on how supervisors judge them against the Basel tests, which is exactly the kind of question the review is likely to revisit. For how GENIUS sets reserve rules, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act implementation</a>.</p>

<h2>Why the review was fast-tracked</h2>

<p>The Committee has not spelled out its reasons beyond recent market developments, but the context is not hard to read. When the standard was drafted in 2022, stablecoins were a niche crypto trading tool with no comprehensive legal framework in the US or EU. By late 2025 both had statutes, and total supply was climbing towards the record of roughly USD 321 billion it reached in May 2026. A capital regime that leaves regulated stablecoins in a punitive bucket risks pushing activity outside banks rather than keeping it inside supervised institutions.</p>

<p>The counter-argument is the one the FATF makes in its <a href="https://fiaumalta.org/app/uploads/2026/07/7th-targeted-update-on-implementation-fatf-standards-vas-vasps-2026.pdf.coredownload.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 2026 update</a>: stablecoins are now a rising risk across crime types, from scam centres to terrorist financing, because they move value quickly across borders. Supervisors who loosen capital rules will want strong integrity controls in return. Our explainer on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/">stablecoins and bank deposits debate</a> covers the financial stability side.</p>

<p>Our view: the review should make it possible for a well-regulated, fully reserved stablecoin to sit alongside a tokenised deposit in a bank's balance sheet without a 12-fold capital penalty, while keeping Group 2 expensive. The Basel tests on reserves, redemption and disclosure are sound. The harder questions are about the networks the tokens run on and the entities in between, and that is where the Committee has the most room to refine.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>12 November 2026:</b> the EBA takes over direct supervision of USDC's own funds, reserves, liquidity and redemption plans, a test of how a significant stablecoin is overseen in practice.</li>
<li><b>Next Basel Committee meetings:</b> any consultative document from the expedited review of targeted elements of SCO60, which would show which conditions are being reconsidered.</li>
<li><b>First DIS55 disclosures:</b> with the disclosure chapter in force from 1 January 2026, banks' first public crypto exposure templates under the standard will show how much crypto activity actually sits on balance sheets.</li>
<li><b>National transposition:</b> how quickly members write the revised standard into local rules, given the Committee asked members to implement the 2024 version by 1 January 2026.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article summarises prudential standards for general information and is not legal, regulatory or investment advice. Banks should rely on the Basel Framework text and their national supervisor's implementing rules.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/basel-crypto-rules-banks.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Prepaid Payment Instruments in India: RBI PPI Rules and Limits 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>RBI rules for prepaid payment instruments explained: small and full-KYC wallet limits, gift and transit cards, cash-out, UPI interoperability and expiry.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A garment worker from Gaya who has spent three years in Surat's textile units keeps two things on his phone: a UPI app linked to his bank account, and a wallet he opened years ago with nothing more than his mobile number. He uses the wallet for small top-ups and the bank app for everything else. What he does not know is that his wallet sits under one of the more detailed rulebooks the Reserve Bank of India has written, one that decides how much it can hold, whether he can withdraw cash from it, and what happens if he stops using it.</p>

<p>That rulebook is the RBI's Master Directions on Prepaid Payment Instruments. It governs wallets, prepaid cards, gift cards, metro cards and the INR wallets offered to foreign visitors. This guide sets out what it says in 2026, what the limits mean in practice, and where PPIs fit in an economy now dominated by UPI.</p>

<h2>What a PPI is, in the RBI's terms</h2>

<p>A prepaid payment instrument holds value paid in advance, which the holder then spends. The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=12156" target="_blank" rel="noopener">master direction</a>, first issued on 27 August 2021 under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, applies to both bank and non-bank issuers. It has been amended several times since, including in February 2023, February 2024 and December 2024, and the RBI publishes a consolidated text that incorporates each change.</p>

<p>The directions sort PPIs by how much the issuer knows about the holder. That single design choice drives every limit.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>₹10,000</b><span>small PPI balance cap</span></div><div class="stat"><b>₹2 lakh</b><span>full-KYC PPI balance cap</span></div><div class="stat"><b>24 months</b><span>to convert small PPI to full KYC</span></div></div>

<h2>Small PPIs versus full-KYC PPIs</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>Small PPI (minimum KYC)</th><th>Full-KYC PPI</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Onboarding</td><td>OTP-verified mobile and self-declared ID</td><td>Full KYC</td></tr>
<tr><td>Maximum balance</td><td>₹10,000</td><td>₹2,00,000</td></tr>
<tr><td>Load limits</td><td>₹10,000 a month; ₹1,20,000 a year</td><td>Within the balance cap</td></tr>
<tr><td>Uses</td><td>Purchases of goods and services only</td><td>Purchases, fund transfers, cash withdrawal</td></tr>
<tr><td>Transfers to others</td><td>Not allowed</td><td>₹10,000 a month to non-registered beneficiaries; up to ₹2,00,000 a month per pre-registered beneficiary</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cash withdrawal</td><td>Not allowed</td><td>₹2,000 per transaction, ₹10,000 a month</td></tr>
<tr><td>Deadline</td><td>Must convert to full KYC within 24 months</td><td>None</td></tr>
<tr><td>UPI handle</td><td>Not allowed</td><td>Allowed; can be discovered on third-party UPI apps</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Small PPIs come in two variants, with and without cash loading. Both carry the same caps. The point of the tier is access: anyone with a phone can start, and the 24-month deadline forces the issuer to complete KYC or wind the instrument down.</p>

<h2>The special categories</h2>

<p><b>Gift PPIs.</b> Capped at ₹10,000 per instrument, not reloadable, and with no cash-out or transfer except back to the source account with the holder's consent. This is the legal home of most corporate gift cards and many promotional vouchers. Gift PPIs may opt into interoperability but are not required to.</p>

<p><b>Mass transit PPIs (PPI-MTS).</b> Metro and bus cards can be issued without KYC, hold up to ₹3,000, are reloadable and can have perpetual validity. They cannot be used for cash withdrawal, refunds or transfers, and they are exempt from interoperability and from the additional authentication requirements that apply to other PPIs. The trade-off is explicit: speed at the turnstile in exchange for low limits.</p>

<p><b>Foreign nationals and NRIs visiting India.</b> Issuers can offer INR full-KYC wallets for merchant payments only, after passport and visa verification. For visitors without an Indian bank account, this is the most direct route into the country's QR-code economy. NRIs with Indian accounts have other options, covered in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a>.</p>

<p><b>Government departments.</b> Scheduled commercial banks can issue full-KYC PPIs to government departments with a limit of ₹2,00,000 per PPI, loaded only from the department's bank account and used for its own expenses. This is distinct from <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/">e-RUPI</a>, the <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/e-rupi/product-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">purpose-specific voucher</a> that NPCI runs with partner banks for beneficiaries.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one wallet, two years</h2>

<p>Return to the worker in Surat. Suppose he opens a small PPI and loads ₹10,000 at the start of every month for groceries and mobile recharges.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Months 1 to 12.</b> Each load hits the monthly cap exactly. After twelve loads he has put in ₹1,20,000, the annual ceiling. If he wanted to load more in month 12, he could not, even though his balance is low.</li>
<li><b>Sending money home.</b> His mother in Gaya needs ₹5,000. A small PPI cannot send it; fund transfers are not permitted. He uses his bank's UPI app instead.</li>
<li><b>Month 24.</b> If he has not completed full KYC, the issuer must stop the instrument from working as before. The rules require conversion within 24 months.</li>
</ul>

<p>Now suppose he upgrades to full KYC in month 6. His wallet can hold up to ₹2,00,000. He can send ₹5,000 to his mother; if she is not pre-registered, he can send up to ₹10,000 a month in total to non-registered recipients, and up to ₹2,00,000 a month to her once she is pre-registered. He can also withdraw cash, but only ₹2,000 per transaction and ₹10,000 a month. If he travels abroad and uses the PPI online, outward cross-border use is limited to ₹10,000 per transaction and ₹50,000 a month, and the instrument cannot be used for remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme.</p>

<p>A second case shows the visitor route. A software consultant from Frankfurt on a three-week assignment in Bengaluru has no Indian bank account and cannot open a UPI handle the usual way. An authorised issuer can give her an INR full-KYC wallet after checking her passport and visa. She can pay at any merchant QR code, which covers most of what a short stay needs: food, autos, groceries. What she cannot do is send money to a colleague or withdraw cash from it, because the visitor wallet is limited to merchant payments. For a short trip that is a reasonable trade; for a longer posting, a resident account becomes necessary.</p>

<p>The lesson is that a PPI is a spending tool with a transfer feature, not a bank account. For anyone supporting family, the bank-linked route remains cheaper and less constrained.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A wallet is a purse with rules, not a bank account with a different logo.</blockquote>

<h2>Interoperability: how PPIs plug into UPI</h2>

<p>For years, wallets were walled gardens. The current directions require interoperability for full-KYC PPIs: wallets through UPI, cards through authorised card networks, and interoperable QR codes, a requirement the RBI set for completion by 31 March 2022. Only full-KYC PPIs can be linked to a UPI handle, and issuers may allow their wallets to be discovered and used on third-party UPI apps, with transactions authenticated using UPI credentials.</p>

<p>That change largely ended the wallet wars. With UPI handling around 800 million payments a day in 2026, up from roughly 7.3 billion a month in September 2022 as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/g20-delhi-summit-likely-to-have-dedicated-vertical-for-digital-public-goods-122111101534_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Business Standard</a>, a wallet that cannot speak UPI is a niche product. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> covers the network itself.</p>

<h2>Who can issue, and what it costs to try</h2>

<p>Banks can issue PPIs within their existing licences. Non-banks need RBI authorisation, and the capital bar is meaningful:</p>

<ul>
<li>At least ₹5 crore of positive net worth, certified by a chartered accountant, at the time of applying.</li>
<li>At least ₹15 crore within three financial years of final authorisation, maintained at all times after that.</li>
<li>An annual net-worth certificate within six months of each financial year end.</li>
</ul>

<p>The RBI also publishes <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQDisplay.aspx?Id=126" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQs on PPIs</a> and a separate set on its authorisation process for payment system operators. Firms weighing a licence should read both with legal counsel.</p>

<h3>Security and liability</h3>

<p>Most PPIs must use additional authentication for payments, in line with RBI rules for digital transactions. Transit cards are the main exception: to keep turnstiles fast, PPI-MTS are exempt from the two-factor requirement. The directions keep the issuer responsible where fraud results from its own negligence or deficiency, so a lighter authentication rule does not shift every loss to the cardholder. Holders should still report a lost card or a suspicious debit immediately, because the speed of reporting usually shapes how a dispute is resolved.</p>

<h2>Validity, expiry and dormant balances</h2>

<ul>
<li>PPIs must be valid for at least one year from the last load.</li>
<li>Holders must be alerted in the 45 days before expiry.</li>
<li>PPIs with no transactions for a year can be made inactive after notice to the holder.</li>
<li>If a scheme is wound up or discontinued by the RBI, holders can redeem outstanding balances.</li>
</ul>

<p>The practical advice is simple: if you hold an old wallet with a balance, use it or move it before it lapses into inactivity.</p>

<h2>Where PPIs fit now</h2>

<p>Globally, prepaid and mobile money accounts have been the fastest-growing route into finance. The World Bank's Global Findex 2025, as summarised by <a href="https://www.findevgateway.org/blog/2025/11/tracks-are-laid-now-we-need-more-traffic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinDev Gateway</a>, shows mobile money accounts rising from 2% of adults worldwide in 2014 to 15% in 2024. In India the pattern is different. Near-universal bank accounts, Aadhaar-based <a href="https://uidai.gov.in/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">eKYC</a> and UPI have pushed PPIs into narrower roles: transit, gifts, corporate expense and meal cards, foreign visitors, and controlled spending such as prepaid cards for teenagers or employees. Purpose-specific government payments are moving toward vouchers like e-RUPI rather than open wallets. For a global comparison see our digital wallets market report, and for travellers our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards/">multi-currency travel cards</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>RBI's next consolidated update to the PPI directions.</b> Each amendment since 2021 has adjusted limits or interoperability; watch for changes to the small-PPI tier as eKYC gets cheaper.</li>
<li><b>RBI's Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies with the December 2026 monetary policy</b>, the usual venue for payment system announcements.</li>
<li><b>Transit card convergence.</b> As metro systems adopt open-loop cards and UPI, the separate PPI-MTS category may shrink or be redefined.</li>
<li><b>RBI's monthly Payment System Indicators,</b> published on its website, which track PPI card and wallet volumes against UPI.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains RBI rules for general information. It is not legal, tax or financial advice. Limits are revised from time to time, so check the current RBI master direction or ask a qualified adviser before relying on a specific figure.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Project mBridge vs Agorá: Two Rival Blueprints for Cross-Border CBDC</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>mBridge passed $55 billion after the BIS withdrew, while the BIS-led Agorá tests tokenised deposits. How the two cross-border CBDC models differ.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">When a trading company in Hong Kong pays a supplier in Abu Dhabi, the money usually takes the long way round: through correspondent banks, often through US dollar accounts in New York, with cut-off times and fees at each stop. Project mBridge was built to cut that route down to a single hop between central bank currencies. Four years after its first big pilot, it works. The question is who wants to use it.</p>

<h2>What mBridge is</h2>
<p>mBridge is a shared ledger that lets commercial banks in different countries settle cross-border payments directly in wholesale central bank digital currencies. It was developed by the People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Bank of Thailand and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, with the Bank for International Settlements' Innovation Hub. The Saudi Central Bank joined as a full participant in June 2024.</p>
<p>Instead of a chain of banks passing messages and adjusting balances in turn, a payment on mBridge is a single transfer of digital central bank money on a common platform. Settlement is final once it happens. For a bank, that means less money tied up in foreign accounts and fewer reconciliation headaches.</p>

<h2>A payment, step by step</h2>
<p>Take a simplified example. A Thai electronics exporter is owed money by a buyer in Hong Kong. In the traditional route, the buyer's bank sends a payment message, the money moves through one or more correspondent banks, each converts or holds funds, and the exporter's bank credits the account a day or two later. Each step carries its own fee and its own risk of the payment getting stuck.</p>
<p>On mBridge, the buyer's bank holds digital Hong Kong dollars issued by the HKMA on the platform. It converts them to digital baht with a participating bank and transfers the baht directly to the exporter's bank. Both legs happen on the same ledger, so the exchange and the transfer settle together. Neither side is left exposed if the other leg fails.</p>
<p>That last point is technical but important. In finance it is called payment-versus-payment, and it removes one of the oldest risks in foreign exchange: paying out one currency and not receiving the other.</p>

<h2>The numbers</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$55.5B</b><span>cumulative cross-border value, per Atlantic Council data, January 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>4,000+</b><span>cross-border transactions on the platform</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>~95%</b><span>of settlement volume in China's e-CNY</span></div>
</div>
<p>Reuters, citing Atlantic Council data and reported by <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/386057/china-led-cross-border-cbdc-platform-mbridge-surges-past-55-billion-in-transaction-volume-reuters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>, put cumulative mBridge value at about $55.5 billion in January 2026, roughly 2,500 times the level of 2022. The People's Bank of China gave its own figure of almost 500 billion yuan, about $74.4 billion, by the end of 2025, with more than 95% settled in e-CNY, according to <a href="https://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202608/25/WS6a8ce0f4e4b07a432ddc2ff3.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily</a>. Chinese banks keep adding use cases. In July 2026, Industrial Bank processed a 500 million yuan cross-border transfer for an equity deal.</p>
<p>Those totals are meaningful for a young platform. They are also tiny next to the volumes that move through correspondent banking.</p>

<h2>The departures</h2>
<p>Two departures changed how mBridge is seen. In October 2024, the BIS announced it was graduating out of the project, saying the participating central banks could carry on independently. Many observers read it as the BIS stepping back from a platform that was increasingly dominated by one currency and that raised awkward sanctions questions.</p>
<p>Then in September 2026, the Financial Times reported, and <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/saudi-arabia-exits-china-backed-mbridge-platform-amid-governance-and-compliance-concerns-556677-2026-09-20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today</a> followed, that the Saudi Central Bank had completed its proof of concept on 13 May 2025 and was no longer a member. Saudi officials framed it as the natural end of a trial rather than a rejection, and said the technical experience would feed into domestic payment work.</p>
<p>The result is a platform that keeps growing in volume but has become, in practice, a China-anchored network with Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE as the other core participants.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">mBridge proved the technology. Agorá is trying to prove the politics.</blockquote>

<h2>Agorá: the other blueprint</h2>
<p>While mBridge moved on without it, the BIS started a different project. Project Agorá brings together seven central banks, covering the UK, the US, the euro area through the Banque de France, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Switzerland, plus more than 40 financial institutions including Citi, HSBC, JPMorgan, BNP Paribas and Santander.</p>
<p>The design is different in one crucial way. Agorá does not put a new central bank currency in the middle. It places tokenised commercial bank deposits on one layer and tokenised central bank reserves on another, with each central bank running its own part. Results published in May 2026, summarised by <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2026/05/29/bis-project-agora-update-cross-border/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert</a>, showed the prototype settling multi-currency payments in seconds once liquidity was locked, with sanctions, anti-money-laundering and fraud checks running at the same time rather than one after another. The next steps named include real-value transactions and governance for a possible production platform.</p>

<h2>Comparing the two</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th></th><th>mBridge</th><th>Agorá</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Money on the platform</td><td>Wholesale CBDCs</td><td>Tokenised deposits and reserves</td></tr>
<tr><td>BIS role</td><td>Left October 2024</td><td>Leads the project</td></tr>
<tr><td>Core members</td><td>China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE</td><td>UK, US, euro area, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Switzerland</td></tr>
<tr><td>Status</td><td>Live, with real transactions</td><td>Prototype tested; real-value tests next</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dominant currency</td><td>e-CNY, about 95%</td><td>Multi-currency by design</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<h2>What it means for people who send money</h2>
<p>Neither platform touches consumers directly. A taxi driver in Abu Dhabi sending money to his family in Kozhikode will not open an mBridge app. But wholesale settlement is where much of the cost of a cross-border payment hides. Faster settlement between banks means less money parked in foreign accounts, fewer failed payments and, eventually, room for lower fees. We look at those costs in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home</a>.</p>
<p>The bigger story is fragmentation. Cross-border payments may end up running on several networks shaped by geopolitics: mBridge for trade linked to China, Agorá-style tokenised deposits for the large Western banks, and instant payment links such as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> for retail. Stablecoins are competing in the gaps. Our view is that interoperability between these islands will matter more than which one wins.</p>
<p>For context on how central bank money differs from bank and stablecoin money, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">our three-way comparison</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>The Scope of Stablecoins: Eight Real Uses Beyond Crypto Trading</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/scope-of-stablecoins/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/scope-of-stablecoins/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>Stablecoins began as a trading tool. In 2026 they power B2B payments, payroll, cards, remittance, bill pay, savings and tokenised assets. Eight real uses.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/scope-of-stablecoins.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">If you only follow crypto headlines, you'd think stablecoins exist so traders have somewhere to park money between bets. That was true in 2019. By 2026, the most interesting stablecoin activity has almost nothing to do with trading.</p>

<h2>1. Business-to-business payments</h2>
<p>This is the quiet giant. Of the roughly $390 billion in genuine stablecoin payments in 2025, most was companies paying other companies: about $226 billion by McKinsey and Artemis's estimate, with B2B volume up more than sevenfold on the year. Importers paying suppliers, platforms paying sellers, firms moving money between their own subsidiaries. Same-day settlement, any day of the week, is a huge deal for a business that used to wait three days for a wire.</p>

<h2>2. Remittance and money transfer</h2>
<p>The use case everyone predicted, finally arriving. Visa lists remittances among the areas where stablecoins fit best, and remittance brands like MoneyGram have launched their own. The win is the middle of the journey: fewer banks in the chain, no weekend delays.</p>

<h2>3. Paying bills across borders</h2>
<p>A natural next step from remittance: instead of sending money for the bill, pay the bill. Stablecoin settlement lets bill-payment providers pay billers in other countries quickly and cheaply, so the family abroad can settle the electricity bill directly.</p>

<h2>4. Cards you can spend anywhere</h2>
<p>Stablecoin-linked cards now work in more than 50 markets on Visa's network alone. You hold digital dollars; the shop gets paid in its local currency. For freelancers paid in dollars and travellers who hate conversion fees, it's a practical bridge to everyday spending.</p>

<h2>5. Payroll and freelancer payouts</h2>
<p>Companies with remote teams across dozens of countries are paying contractors in stablecoins, who then convert locally when they want to. It's faster and often cheaper than international payroll, especially in countries where local currencies are volatile.</p>

<h2>6. A dollar savings account for people who don't have one</h2>
<p>In countries with high inflation, holding a stable digital dollar on your phone can protect savings in a way the local bank can't. This is one of the most human uses of the technology, and one where regulation matters most.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">For many families, a stablecoin isn't an investment. It's the first dollar account they've ever been allowed to have.</blockquote>

<h2>7. Treasury and liquidity for companies</h2>
<p>Corporate treasurers are starting to hold some cash as stablecoins so they can move it instantly between markets. Ripple's billion-dollar purchase of a treasury software company is a bet on exactly this.</p>

<h2>8. The base layer for tokenised everything</h2>
<p>Tokenised money-market funds, bonds, gold and real estate all need a stable unit to trade against. On Stellar alone, tokenised real-world assets grew to about $3 billion in the first half of 2026. Stablecoins are the cash register of that new market.</p>

<h2>What could slow it down</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>On and off ramps.</b> Converting to and from local money is still the expensive, regulated bottleneck.</li>
  <li><b>Fragmented rules.</b> A coin allowed in one country may be restricted in another.</li>
  <li><b>User experience.</b> Wallet addresses, networks and gas fees still confuse people. Services that hide all of it will have an edge.</li>
</ul>
<p>The scope of stablecoins turns out to be the scope of money itself. The technology is ready. What's left is making the experience ordinary enough that people never have to think about it, and that is the part worth watching.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/scope-of-stablecoins.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Remittance Market Forecast 2030: $729B Today, Where Next?</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/remittance-market-forecast-2030/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/remittance-market-forecast-2030/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Remittances hit $728.6B in 2025. We model the path to 2030, the corridors to watch, digital share and whether costs can reach the 3% UN target in time.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/remittance-market-forecast-2030.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Mexico received $61.8 billion in remittances in 2025, according to Banco de Mexico. That was 4.6 percent less than in 2024 and the first full-year drop after more than a decade of growth. The number of individual transfers fell faster than the money, down 5.5 percent to about 156 million, while the average transfer edged up to $397. Fewer people sent, and those who kept sending sent a little more. For anyone trying to forecast remittances to 2030, that single corridor is a warning: the global total keeps rising, but the growth is becoming lumpier, more political, and far more dependent on which corridor you are looking at.</p>

<p>This piece sets out what the official data says now, builds a simple scenario range to 2030, and identifies the corridors and policy dates that will decide which end of that range we land on.</p>

<h2>Where the market stands in 2026</h2>

<p>IFAD, the UN agency that tracks family remittances, estimated in September 2026 that migrants sent about $728.6 billion to low- and middle-income countries in 2025. As <a href="https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news/20260916/remittances-nearly-double-decade-migrants-send-home-us729-billion-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by the Jamaica Gleaner</a>, that is 94 percent more than in 2016, while the number of migrants from those countries grew only 28 percent. The money per migrant has risen far faster than migration itself.</p>

<p>The World Bank's own series, which uses a different method, put flows to low- and middle-income countries at about <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024--remittance-flows-to-low--and-middle-income-countries-ar?utm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$685 billion in 2024</a>, with growth of 5.8 percent that year. India was the largest recipient at an estimated $129 billion in calendar 2024, and the RBI later reported a record $135.46 billion for the 2024-25 financial year. Mexico, China and the Philippines followed.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$728.6B</b><span>Remittances to low and middle-income countries in 2025 (IFAD)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>94%</b><span>Growth in remittances, 2016 to 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>6.36%</b><span>Global average cost of sending $200, Q3 2025</span></div></div>

<p>Regionally, Asia and the Pacific took about $384.9 billion, or 53 percent of the total. Latin America and the Caribbean received $168.6 billion, up 132 percent over the decade, the fastest of any region. Africa received $124.2 billion, up 86 percent, and Egypt has overtaken Nigeria as the continent's largest recipient. For deeper corridor detail, see our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-mexico-remittance-corridor/">US to Mexico</a>.</p>

<h2>Why remittances keep beating forecasts</h2>

<p>Remittances are counter-cyclical for recipients and pro-cyclical for senders. When a home economy is hit by a currency crisis or a flood, migrants send more. When the host economy weakens, they eventually send less. A <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/global-remittances-cycle-20250227.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve note</a> from February 2025 found that a common global component explains almost two thirds of the variation in remittance flows across countries, with global financial stress the main brake.</p>

<p>That same note quoted a World Bank projection of 2.8 percent growth in 2025, to about $690 billion. IFAD's 2025 figure is well above that, partly because the two series differ in coverage, and partly because the official forecast was simply too cautious. That has been a recurring pattern. Better measurement also plays a role: as more transfers move into formal digital channels, flows that were once informal start showing up in central bank data.</p>

<h2>Scenarios to 2030</h2>

<p>No official body publishes a 2030 remittance forecast, so here is a simple compound-growth range built on IFAD's 2025 base. These are our illustrative calculations, not predictions from any institution.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Scenario</th><th>Annual growth</th><th>2030 total</th><th>What has to happen</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Stall</td><td>1%</td><td>about $766B</td><td>US enforcement and weak Gulf hiring hold flows flat in real terms</td></tr>
<tr><td>Official-style</td><td>3%</td><td>about $845B</td><td>Growth tracks the cautious World Bank pace of recent years</td></tr>
<tr><td>Steady</td><td>5%</td><td>about $930B</td><td>Asia keeps growing, Latin America recovers, Africa formalises</td></tr>
<tr><td>Decade trend</td><td>7.6%</td><td>about $1.05T</td><td>The 2016-2025 pace (94 percent over nine years) continues</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The decade-trend case is the one most market-sizing reports quote, and we think it is too optimistic. The 2016-2025 decade included two unusual tailwinds: a post-pandemic surge as cash channels moved online and got counted, and very large currency depreciations in several recipient countries that pushed migrants to send more. Neither repeats on demand. Our central expectation sits between the 3 and 5 percent rows, which puts the market somewhere around $850 billion to $930 billion by 2030.</p>

<p>The stall case is not far-fetched. IFAD itself lists deportations, restrictions on migrant employment and weaker labour demand in host countries as the main risks to flows. Its remittance lead, Pedro de Vasconcellos, said in September 2026 that current figures do not yet show a reduction. Note the word yet. A two-year slowdown in US and Gulf hiring would be enough to drag the global average growth rate toward the bottom row of the table.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The next trillion in remittances will be won corridor by corridor, not globally.</blockquote>

<h2>Corridors to watch</h2>

<p><b>US to Latin America.</b> The United States is by far the largest sending country for the region, and it is now the most uncertain. A 1 percent federal excise tax on remittances took effect on 1 January 2026. As <a href="https://rsmus.com/insights/tax-alerts/2025/excise-tax-on-cross-border-remittances.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RSM's summary</a> explains, it applies only to transfers funded with cash, money orders or similar instruments, not those funded from a US bank account or a US-issued card. That design pushes senders toward digital funding. Combined with tighter immigration enforcement, it helps explain Mexico's 2025 fall, though the transaction count started falling before the tax applied.</p>

<p><b>Gulf to South Asia.</b> This is the engine of Asian growth. India's inflows are now larger than most countries' entire export earnings, and the Gulf accounts for a large share. Rising Gulf wages and new linkages between domestic instant payment systems, such as UPI connections abroad, are cutting cost and time on this route.</p>

<p><b>Intra-Africa and Europe to Africa.</b> Africa is still the most expensive region to send money to, with consistently higher FX margins. It is also where digital entry points, mainly mobile money, are growing fastest. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/">why sending money to Africa costs so much</a>.</p>

<p><b>Asia-Pacific labour corridors.</b> The Philippines, Nepal and Bangladesh depend heavily on Gulf, East Asian and US earnings. They are less exposed to US policy than Central America but more exposed to oil prices through Gulf hiring.</p>

<h2>The digital shift, measured honestly</h2>

<p>IFAD's 2026 figures say more than half of remittances now begin digitally, but only 35 percent of the services measured in 2025 were fully digital from sender to recipient. The rest end with a cash pickup or an agent. That distinction matters for cost. Fully digital transfers averaged about 4.6 percent, against 7.3 percent for non-digital ones.</p>

<p>The G20's financial inclusion partnership found the same gap in its <a href="https://gpfi.org/sites/default/files/NEW%202024%20Update%20to%20Leaders%20on%20Progress%20Towards%20the%20G20%20Remittance%20Target.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024 progress update</a>: 4.96 percent for digital against 6.94 percent for non-digital in Q1 2024, with 17 percent of tracked corridors still above the 5 percent ceiling. The bottleneck is the last mile. A sender in Riyadh can pay from an app. The recipient in a village without a bank branch or a mobile wallet still needs cash.</p>

<p>Stablecoins are entering this gap at the wholesale and treasury layer more than at the consumer layer. Providers use them to pre-fund payouts in markets where correspondent banking is slow. That trims settlement time and capital costs, but the recipient rarely sees a token. We cover the mechanics in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-trends-2026/">stablecoin payment trends for 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>Can costs reach 3 percent by 2030?</h2>

<p>The UN's Sustainable Development Goal <a href="https://worldbank.github.io/sdg-metadata/metadata/en/10-c-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">target 10.c</a> commits countries to cut remittance costs below 3 percent and eliminate corridors costing 5 percent or more by 2030. The benchmark is the cost of sending $200. The World Bank's <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Remittance Prices Worldwide</a> database put the global average at 6.36 percent in Q3 2025, more than double the target.</p>

<p>The Financial Stability Board, which runs the G20's parallel programme, was blunt in its <a href="https://www.fsb.org/2025/10/g20-roadmap-for-cross-border-payments-consolidated-progress-report-for-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2025 progress report</a>. It said satisfactory global improvement by the 2027 roadmap date is unlikely, and described the average cost of remittances as sticky, even as speed has improved. We agree. The 3 percent global average will almost certainly be missed in 2030. The 5 percent corridor ceiling is more reachable in high-volume routes, and digital-only services already beat it in many of them.</p>

<h2>A worked example: what the cost gap means for one family</h2>

<p>Take a worker in Houston who sends $400 a month to family in Jalisco, close to the Mexican average transfer of $397.</p>

<ul>
<li>At the global average cost of 6.36 percent, each transfer costs about $25.44, or roughly $305 a year.</li>
<li>At the 4.6 percent fully digital average, the cost drops to $18.40 per transfer, about $221 a year.</li>
<li>At the 3 percent SDG target, it would be $12 a transfer, or $144 a year.</li>
<li>If the worker pays in cash at a counter, the 1 percent US excise tax adds $4 per transfer, or $48 a year, on top.</li>
</ul>

<p>The gap between the cash-funded average route and the SDG target is about $209 a year for this one family, more than half a month's transfer. Scale that up and the aggregate stakes are clear. If the average cost on the full $728.6 billion fell from 6.36 percent to 3 percent, families would keep roughly $24.5 billion a year more. That is an upper-bound illustration, since larger transfers already cost less than the $200 benchmark, but it shows why the cost target matters more than most headline growth forecasts. For what that money is spent on, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/">what remittances actually pay for</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the World Bank usually publishes its Migration and Development Brief around International Migrants Day on 18 December, with first estimates for 2026 flows.</li>
<li><b>Monthly Banxico releases:</b> the US-Mexico corridor is the clearest real-time read on the effect of US enforcement and the excise tax.</li>
<li><b>Quarterly RPW updates:</b> watch whether the global average breaks below 6 percent, and whether Sub-Saharan Africa narrows its gap.</li>
<li><b>2027:</b> the G20 cross-border payments roadmap deadline, which the FSB already expects to be missed globally.</li>
<li><b>2030:</b> the SDG 10.c deadline for the 3 percent target. Track it alongside our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home tracker</a>.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/remittance-market-forecast-2030.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Why Sending Money to Africa Still Costs the Most, and What Is Changing</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>Sub-Saharan Africa is still the costliest region to send money to, at 8.78% per $200. A look at Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana, mobile money and stablecoin use.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/africa-remittances-cost.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A mechanic in Johannesburg who sends 2,000 rand a month to his sister in Bulawayo loses roughly one rand in eight before the money arrives. A nurse in London sending pounds to her parents in Lagos might lose less than one in fifty. Both are sending money to Africa. The gap between those two experiences is the most useful way to understand why the continent remains the most expensive place in the world to receive a remittance, and why the average is starting to hide as much as it reveals.</p>

<h2>The headline: still the most expensive region</h2>
<p>In the World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide report for the first quarter of 2025, sending $200 to Sub-Saharan Africa cost an average of 8.78%, the highest of any region. The global average was 6.49% (it eased to 6.36% by the third quarter), and South Asia, the cheapest region, was 4.80%. Six of the eight corridors in the database costing more than 20% started in Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Africa was the most expensive G20 sending country at 15.23%, according to the <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/rpw_main_report_and_annex_q125_1_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank report</a>.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>8.78%</b><span>avg cost to send $200 to Sub-Saharan Africa</span></div><div class="stat"><b>15.23%</b><span>avg cost of sending from South Africa</span></div><div class="stat"><b>3.63%</b><span>avg cost when funded by mobile money</span></div></div>
<p>That is far from the UN goal of cutting costs to 3%. On a $200 transfer, the difference between 8.78% and 3% is more than $11, every time.</p>

<h2>Two Africas: intra-regional versus diaspora corridors</h2>
<p>The most expensive transfers are often the ones within the continent. Third-quarter 2025 data shows sending $200 from South Africa to Zimbabwe cost 12.49% on average, mostly in fees, according to World Bank corridor data. By contrast, sending the equivalent from the UK to Nigeria averaged 1.96%, and from the US to Kenya 4.26%.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Corridor ($200 equivalent)</th><th>Average total cost, Q3 2025</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>South Africa to Zimbabwe</td><td>12.49%</td></tr><tr><td>United States to Kenya</td><td>4.26%</td></tr><tr><td>United Kingdom to Nigeria</td><td>1.96%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Why the difference? Diaspora corridors from London or New York are crowded with digital competitors fighting over a high-value market. Intra-African routes often involve smaller currencies, thin foreign exchange markets, cash-heavy senders, migrants without full documents, and fewer licensed providers. Those conditions protect high margins. Our broader look at the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> shows the same pattern in other regions.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Africa's remittance problem is less about London to Lagos and more about Johannesburg to Harare.</blockquote>

<h2>Nigeria: reforms, reserves and a $1 billion target</h2>
<p>Nigeria is the region's largest recipient and the clearest example of how policy shapes flows. After years when a large gap between official and parallel exchange rates pushed money into informal channels, the central bank unified rates and tightened rules for money transfer operators. It now requires them to settle through dedicated naira accounts at authorised banks. In July 2026, Governor Olayemi Cardoso said formal diaspora inflows were running above $600 million a month and that the bank expected to reach about $1 billion a month by year-end, according to <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2026/07/16/cbn-targets-1-billion-monthly-diaspora-remittances-by-year-end-as-reserves-climb/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nairametrics</a>. Gross reserves stood at $51.86 billion in mid-July, the highest in more than 17 years.</p>

<h2>Kenya and Ghana: one slowing, one surging</h2>
<p>Kenya received $5.04 billion in diaspora remittances in 2025, up only 1.9%, the weakest growth in more than 15 years, according to Central Bank of Kenya data reported by <a href="https://itweb.africa/article/kenya-remittances-hit-5bn-in-2025-as-growth-slows/dgp45qaBm2GvX9l8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ITWeb Africa</a>. Roughly half comes from the United States, which makes Kenya sensitive to US labour market and immigration trends.</p>
<p>Ghana went the other way. Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama said inflows reached nearly $7.8 billion in 2025, up from about $4.6 billion, and Ghana's investment promotion agency noted that was more than double the $2.7 billion recorded as foreign direct investment. A more stable cedi and formal-channel incentives both played a part.</p>

<h2>Mobile money is the cheapest route</h2>
<p>Africa built the world's most advanced mobile money systems, and they show up in the price data. In the World Bank's first-quarter 2025 report, transfers funded through mobile money were the cheapest of all funding methods, at 3.63% on average. On the receiving end, mobile wallet offers for the US to Kenya route ranged from below 1% to under 5% in the latest corridor data. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa and mobile money</a> explains how wallets became the default last mile.</p>
<p>The limitation is that mobile money operators remain a tiny part of the international sample, and many cross-border mobile routes still depend on bank correspondents behind the scenes.</p>

<h2>Where stablecoins fit</h2>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the fastest-growing regions for crypto use. Chainalysis estimated the region received more than $205 billion in onchain value between July 2024 and June 2025, up 52%, with Nigeria alone at $92.1 billion and stablecoins making up 43% of transaction volume, as reported by <a href="https://www.mariblock.com/stories/sub-saharan-africa-now-the-third-fastest-growing-crypto-region-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariblock</a>.</p>
<p>The reasons are practical. In countries where the local currency has lost a large share of its value in a few years, holding dollars is a savings decision, not a speculative one. Stablecoins make that possible on a phone, without a foreign currency bank account.</p>
<p>Much of that is trading, savings in dollars and business payments for imports rather than household remittances. Still, for a shop owner in Nairobi paying a supplier in Guangzhou, or a freelancer in Accra paid by a European client, dollar stablecoins already work as a parallel rail. The challenge is the last step: turning stablecoins into local currency, legally and cheaply, in a country with capital controls or weak exchange markets. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">what a stablecoin is</a> covers the basics.</p>

<h2>What would bring the average down</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Opening intra-African corridors</b> to more licensed digital providers, especially from South Africa.</li>
<li><b>Interoperability between mobile wallets</b> across borders, so money does not detour through Europe or the US.</li>
<li><b>Exchange rate transparency,</b> so senders can see the margin as well as the fee.</li>
<li><b>Clear rules for regulated stablecoin on- and off-ramps,</b> so a parallel rail can become a formal one.</li>
</ul>
<p>Africa's diaspora corridors are already cheaper than the headline suggests. The work left is on the routes that carry the continent's poorest senders, and that is where regulators and providers should be judged over the next few years.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/africa-remittances-cost.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Depegs: Lessons From Terra, USDC&#x27;s SVB Scare and USDe</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Stablecoins</category><description>From TerraUSD&#x27;s $40B collapse to USDC&#x27;s 87-cent weekend and USDe&#x27;s flash crash: a history of stablecoin depegs and how new reserve rules respond to each one.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-depegs-history.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">A stablecoin has one job, and when it fails at it the result is not a bad day in the markets. It is a bank run conducted at internet speed, with every holder watching the price on their phone. There have been three defining failures in the past five years, each with a different cause. Read together, they explain almost every rule now written into stablecoin law.</p>

<h2>May 2022: TerraUSD, the run with no reserves</h2>
<p>TerraUSD, or UST, was an "algorithmic" stablecoin. It had no pile of dollars behind it. Instead, users could always swap one UST for a dollar's worth of a sister token, Luna, and arbitrage was supposed to keep the price at $1. Demand was fuelled by Anchor, a lending protocol on Terra that offered about 20% a year on UST deposits.</p>
<p>The flaw was circular. Luna's value depended on confidence in UST, and UST's peg depended on Luna having value. When large withdrawals began in May 2022, holders swapped UST for Luna and sold it, Luna's price collapsed, and each swap printed more Luna into a falling market. Within days both tokens were close to worthless and about $40 billion of value had vanished. The founder, Do Kwon, pleaded guilty to fraud charges and was sentenced to 15 years in prison in December 2025, according to <a href="https://decrypt.co/352066/do-kwon-sentenced-15-years-prison-40-billion-terra-crypto-collapse" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decrypt</a>.</p>
<p>The damage spread. Terra's collapse set off a chain of failures among crypto lenders that ended with FTX's bankruptcy months later. Total stablecoin supply fell about 16% in 2022.</p>

<h2>March 2023: USDC and the bank that failed on a Friday</h2>
<p>USDC's scare was the opposite problem: real reserves, held in the wrong place. On Friday 10 March 2023, California regulators shut Silicon Valley Bank. That evening Circle disclosed that $3.3 billion of USDC's roughly $40 billion of reserves, close to 8%, was sitting there. Banks were closed for the weekend, so nobody could redeem. On Saturday USDC fell below 87 cents, its lowest ever, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/11/stablecoin-usdc-breaks-dollar-peg-after-firm-reveals-it-has-3point3-billion-in-svb-exposure.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNBC</a> reported.</p>
<p>It recovered once US authorities stepped in with emergency measures, including a $25 billion Federal Reserve funding programme. By Monday 13 March USDC was back near $0.995 and Circle was moving its remaining cash to BNY Mellon. The coin that depended on USDC suffered too: DAI, which held USDC in its collateral, briefly lost its peg as well.</p>
<p>The lesson was subtle. USDC was solvent the whole time. It was illiquid for 48 hours because its cash was a bank deposit above insured limits at a single lender, and markets do not wait for Monday.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Terra had no reserves. USDC had reserves it could not reach. Both failed the same test: can every holder get a dollar back, now?</blockquote>

<h2>October 2025: USDe and the venue problem</h2>
<p>The newest episode is a reminder that design and market structure both matter. On 10 October 2025 a tariff shock triggered more than $19 billion of forced liquidations across crypto markets, according to Coinglass data cited by <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/learn/october-10-crypto-crash-explained" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CoinGecko</a>. Ethena's USDe, a synthetic dollar backed by crypto collateral and offsetting short futures positions, fell to $0.65 on Binance while staying near a dollar on most other venues. The exchange's pricing of USDe for collateral purposes and thin liquidity amplified the move; Binance and its critics still dispute how much the depeg caused rather than reflected the crash.</p>
<p>USDe did not collapse. But confidence took a hit: its supply fell from about $14.7 billion before the crash to about $6.3 billion two months later.</p>

<h2>The scorecard</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Episode</th><th>Design</th><th>Lowest price</th><th>Root cause</th><th>Outcome</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>TerraUSD, May 2022</td><td>Algorithmic, no reserves</td><td>Near zero</td><td>Circular backing</td><td>~$40B lost; founder jailed</td></tr>
<tr><td>USDC, March 2023</td><td>Fiat reserves</td><td>~$0.87</td><td>Uninsured deposits at a failed bank</td><td>Full recovery in days</td></tr>
<tr><td>USDe, October 2025</td><td>Synthetic, hedged crypto</td><td>$0.65 on one venue</td><td>Liquidation spiral, venue pricing</td><td>Peg held elsewhere; supply more than halved</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$40B</b><span>value wiped out in the Terra collapse</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>8%</b><span>share of USDC reserves stuck at SVB</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>1 day</b><span>maximum redemption time under Hong Kong's rules</span></div>
</div>

<h2>How the new rules answer each failure</h2>
<p>Read today's laws with these three weekends in mind and the logic becomes obvious.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>No reserves (Terra).</b> The GENIUS Act requires one-for-one backing in cash, short-term Treasuries and similar liquid assets, which rules out algorithmic designs for licensed payment stablecoins. Europe's MiCA and Hong Kong's ordinance do the same.</li>
  <li><b>Reserves you cannot reach (USDC).</b> Rules now demand segregated reserves, monthly public disclosure and fast redemption. Hong Kong requires redemption requests to be met within one business day. Singapore's draft legislation adds quarterly stress tests and is considering minimum shares held as cash or bank deposits.</li>
  <li><b>Who gets paid first.</b> The GENIUS Act gives holders first claim on reserves if an issuer goes bust, according to <a href="https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/inside-fintech/blog/2025/07/breaking-down-the-genius-act-stablecoin-legislation-passes-in-the-senate-and-house---18-july-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Norton Rose Fulbright's analysis</a>. Before, holders could have ranked alongside other creditors.</li>
  <li><b>Yield as bait (Terra and USDe).</b> The ban on issuers paying interest removes the 20%-yield lure that drew money into Anchor, and keeps payment tokens separate from trading strategies.</li>
</ul>
<p>Details by country are in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our GENIUS and MiCA guide</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/">our Asia and Gulf regulation guide</a>.</p>

<h2>The pattern behind all three</h2>
<p>Each run followed the same script. A piece of bad news arrived, holders with the fastest access sold first on exchanges, the market price fell below a dollar, and the fall itself became the news that triggered more selling. In every case the speed came from the same feature that makes stablecoins useful: they trade around the clock, and anyone can leave without asking permission. Rules cannot remove that feature. They can only make sure that, when the run comes, the dollars are really there.</p>

<h2>What still worries us</h2>
<p>Rules reduce risk; they do not remove it. Three gaps remain. Reserve mixes still differ: S&amp;P Global cut its rating of USDT's peg stability to "weak" in November 2025, citing bitcoin and gold in its reserves and limited disclosure, which Tether disputes. Weekend liquidity is still a real constraint, because Treasury markets and banks keep office hours while stablecoins do not. And stacked products, such as yield tokens built on other stablecoins, can import a wobble from one layer to the next. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries/">guide to yield-bearing stablecoins</a> covers that last point.</p>
<p>For ordinary users the practical takeaway is simple. Prefer coins issued under a clear licence, with frequent reserve reports and a stated redemption time. And remember that a peg is a promise, which is only as good as the assets and the legal claim behind it.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-depegs-history.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>The Mid-Market Rate Explained: Why &#x27;Zero-Fee&#x27; Transfers Still Cost You</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>The exchange rate you see on Google is the mid-market rate. How providers hide costs in the rate, how to work out a transfer&#x27;s real cost and what to check.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">"Zero fees!" is the most common promise in money transfer advertising. Sometimes it's true. Often it's true in the narrowest possible sense: there's no line on the receipt called "fee", but the money still goes somewhere. The place it usually goes is the exchange rate.</p>

<h2>What the mid-market rate is</h2>
<p>When you type "USD to INR" into Google, the number you see is the mid-market rate. It's the midpoint between what big banks are paying to buy a currency and what they're asking to sell it, at that moment. It's the fairest reference there is, because nobody is taking a cut from it.</p>
<p>Almost no retail provider gives you that exact rate by default. They give you something slightly worse and keep the difference. That difference is called the FX margin or markup.</p>

<h2>How a hidden margin adds up</h2>
<p>Say the mid-market rate is 1 USD = 84.00 INR and you send $500.</p>
<table class="cmp">
  <thead><tr><th>Offer</th><th>Rate you get</th><th>Fee</th><th>Family receives</th></tr></thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr><td>Mid-market, no fee</td><td>84.00</td><td>$0</td><td>₹42,000</td></tr>
    <tr><td>"Zero fee", 2% margin</td><td>82.32</td><td>$0</td><td>₹41,160</td></tr>
    <tr><td>$5 fee, 0.5% margin</td><td>83.58</td><td>$5</td><td>₹41,372</td></tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p class="note">Illustrative example, not a live quote.</p>
<p>The "zero fee" option is the most expensive of the three. The family receives ₹840 less than at the mid-market rate, which is the same as paying a $10 fee. Over a year of monthly transfers, that's about $120 that never arrives.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Ignore the fee. Ignore the rate. Look at one number: how much arrives.</blockquote>

<h2>A simple way to check any transfer</h2>
<ol>
  <li>Look up the mid-market rate on Google or a currency site right before you send.</li>
  <li>Multiply your amount by it. That's what a perfectly fair transfer would deliver.</li>
  <li>Compare it with the amount the provider says will arrive.</li>
  <li>Divide the difference by the perfect amount. That percentage is your real, all-in cost.</li>
</ol>
<p>Do this once for the two or three providers you use and you'll never be fooled by "zero fees" again. The global average cost of sending money home is about 6.36%, and fully digital services average around 4.59%, so anything well under that is a genuinely good deal.</p>

<h2>Why some providers can offer the full rate</h2>
<p>If a company gives you the mid-market rate with no fee, it is either losing money on your transfer to win you as a customer, or it has found a cheaper way to move money than the old correspondent-bank chain. Faster settlement rails, including regulated stablecoins, cut out several layers of cost in the middle of the journey. That saving is what makes a full rate sustainable rather than a promotion that quietly ends.</p>

<h2>What to look for</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>The amount received shown before you pay</b>, in the recipient's currency.</li>
  <li><b>The rate shown next to the mid-market rate</b>, so you can see the gap yourself.</li>
  <li><b>No surprises on the other side</b>: some transfers lose a further deduction at the receiving bank.</li>
  <li><b>The same rate on small amounts.</b> Many providers give their best rates only above a threshold.</li>
</ul>
<p>Whichever provider you use, hold it to one simple standard: how close does the amount received come to the mid-market rate? That's the number worth checking every time.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>What Are Payment Rails? Cards, ACH, RTGS, Instant and Blockchain</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>A plain-English guide to payment rails: how card networks, ACH, wires, instant systems, mobile money and blockchains move money, with a speed and cost table.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-are-payment-rails.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">When you tap a card, send a bank transfer or pay a friend in an app, the button looks the same. Underneath, the money may travel on completely different tracks, each with its own speed, price and rules. Those tracks are called payment rails, and understanding them explains why some payments are free and instant while others take three days and cost $40.</p>

<h2>A rail is a set of rules plus a ledger</h2>
<p>A payment rail is the system that moves value from one account to another. It has three parts: a messaging format that says who pays whom, a settlement method that actually moves the money between institutions, and a rulebook that covers who can join, what happens if something goes wrong and who pays for it. Different rails make different trade-offs between speed, cost, reversibility and reach.</p>

<h2>1. Card networks</h2>
<p>Visa, Mastercard, UnionPay, RuPay and others connect the customer's bank (the issuer) to the merchant's bank (the acquirer). Authorisation takes about a second, which is why cards feel instant. Settlement between banks happens later, usually a day or two. Visa alone processed 257.5 billion transactions in its 2025 fiscal year, according to its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403161/000140316125000077/q42025earningsrelease.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earnings release</a>.</p>
<p>Cards are global and protect consumers with chargebacks, but merchants pay for it. US merchants paid $198.25 billion in processing fees in 2025, with an average rate around 1.59% of purchase value, according to the <a href="https://nilsonreport.com/merchant-processing-fees-industry-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nilson Report</a>. Rewards points and fraud protection are funded from that.</p>

<h2>2 and 3. Batch transfers and wires</h2>
<p>Automated clearing houses bundle payments into batches and settle them at set times. The US ACH network carried 35.2 billion payments worth $93 trillion in 2025, says Nacha. Payroll, rent, utility direct debits and subscriptions mostly run here. It is cheap, often a few cents per payment, and slow by modern standards: same-day at best, usually one to three days. Europe's standard SEPA credit transfer and the UK's Bacs work on the same principle.</p>

<p><b>Real-time gross settlement (RTGS).</b> RTGS systems are run by central banks for large, urgent payments between banks. Each payment settles individually and finally in central bank money. The Fed's Fedwire Funds Service handled about 869,000 transfers a day in 2025, worth an average of $4.59 trillion daily, with an average transfer of $5.28 million, according to <a href="https://frbservices.org/resources/financial-services/wires/volume-value-stats/annual-stats.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve data</a>. When you send a domestic wire for a house deposit, this is the rail. It is fast and final but usually closes on weekends, and banks charge retail customers handsomely for access.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>257.5B</b><span>Visa transactions, FY2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$93T</b><span>US ACH value, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$5.28M</b><span>average Fedwire transfer</span></div></div>

<h2>4. Instant payment systems</h2>
<p>These are the newest bank rails: India's UPI, Brazil's Pix, Europe's SEPA Instant, the UK's Faster Payments, and FedNow and RTP in the US. Payments settle in seconds, 24 hours a day, and are usually irrevocable. Costs to the user are often zero. UPI averaged about 802 million transactions a day in September 2026. Our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/">FedNow and RTP</a> show how differently they have been adopted.</p>
<p>The limitation is geography. Almost all instant systems work in one currency inside one country or region.</p>

<h2>5 and 6. Mobile money and correspondent banking</h2>
<p>In much of Africa and parts of Asia, telecom-run wallets such as M-Pesa function as a rail of their own, with agents converting cash to e-money. The GSMA says mobile money processed $2.1 trillion in 2025. It reaches people banks never did, but each system is mostly national.</p>

<p><b>Correspondent banking.</b> For cross-border payments, banks send messages over SWIFT and settle through accounts they hold with each other, often via one or more intermediaries. It reaches nearly every country but is the most expensive retail option, especially at banks. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> covers why.</p>

<h2>7. Blockchains</h2>
<p>Public blockchains such as Ethereum, Solana, Tron and Stellar act as global, always-open ledgers. Moving a dollar <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">stablecoin</a> on them settles in seconds to minutes. Typical USDC transfer costs in mid-2026 were a fraction of a cent on Solana, around a cent on Base and $1 to $5 on Ethereum's main chain, according to <a href="https://www.spark.money/tools/stablecoin-transfer-cost-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spark's tracker</a>. Total stablecoin supply stood near $306 billion in October 2026, per DefiLlama.</p>
<p>The trade-offs are different: no chargebacks, the user or a provider must manage keys, and converting into and out of local currency still needs a bank or exchange at each end.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">There is no best rail. There is only the right rail for a given payment.</blockquote>

<h2>The comparison table</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Rail</th><th>Typical speed</th><th>Typical cost to sender</th><th>Hours</th><th>Reach</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Card networks</td><td>Seconds to approve, 1-2 days to settle</td><td>Free to customer; ~1.59% average to US merchants</td><td>24/7</td><td>Global</td></tr>
<tr><td>ACH / batch transfer</td><td>Same day to 3 days</td><td>Cents</td><td>Business days</td><td>Domestic</td></tr>
<tr><td>RTGS / wire</td><td>Minutes</td><td>Bank fee, varies by bank</td><td>Business hours</td><td>Domestic</td></tr>
<tr><td>Instant payment system</td><td>Seconds</td><td>Usually free</td><td>24/7</td><td>Domestic or regional</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mobile money</td><td>Seconds</td><td>Small tiered fees</td><td>24/7</td><td>Mostly domestic</td></tr>
<tr><td>Correspondent banking</td><td>Hours to days</td><td>Highest; bank remittances average well above 10%</td><td>Business days</td><td>Global</td></tr>
<tr><td>Stablecoin on blockchain</td><td>Seconds to minutes</td><td>Under a cent to a few dollars</td><td>24/7</td><td>Global, needs on/off ramps</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Card figure: Nilson Report, US average for 2025. Wire fees vary by bank. Bank remittance cost reflects the World Bank's Q1 2025 average of 14.55% for sending $200.</p>

<h2>Why this matters for ordinary payments</h2>
<p>Take a postgraduate student in Melbourne paying a phone bill in India for her parents. If her bank wires rupees, the payment rides correspondent banking with fees at both ends. If a remittance company collects her dollars by debit card and pays out over UPI, two cheaper domestic rails do most of the work, and the company handles the currency swap in the middle. If a provider uses stablecoins for that middle leg, the settlement can happen on a Sunday night.</p>
<p>Most of the innovation in payments today is about stitching rails together: using cheap local rails at each end and finding a faster, cheaper bridge between them. That is the idea behind linked instant systems such as Project Nexus and behind stablecoin settlement. Once you can see the rails, a lot of fintech news starts to make sense.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/what-are-payment-rails.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Women and Remittances: Who Sends, Who Receives, Who Decides</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/women-and-remittances/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/women-and-remittances/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>Women send about half of global remittances and receive most of them. What the data says on amounts, fees, control of the money and the gender account gap.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/women-and-remittances.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In the Philippines' 2024 count of workers abroad, 57.2 percent were women. Most of them work in what statisticians call elementary occupations: cleaning, caring, cooking in someone else's house. On the other side of the transfer, in a village outside Pokhara or a town in Guatemala's highlands, the person collecting the money is usually a woman too. Remittances are, to a degree the industry rarely acknowledges, a flow from women to women. And the rules, products and fees around them were mostly designed with someone else in mind.</p>

<p>This article pulls together what the data from IFAD, UN Women, the World Bank, IOM and national statistics offices actually says about women as senders and receivers, where that data is weak, and what changes when women control the money.</p>

<h2>The headline numbers, and how solid they are</h2>

<p>The figure most often quoted comes from IFAD's family remittances campaign: women migrant workers are about half of all remittance senders, <a href="https://familyremittances.org/?p=455" target="_blank" rel="noopener">roughly 100 million people</a>, and they send about the same amounts as men despite earning less. UNFPA put the female share of international migrants at <a href="https://unfpa.org/press/highlighting-importance-women-migrants-remittances" target="_blank" rel="noopener">49.2 percent</a> back in 2011, and it has hovered near half since.</p>

<p>Those are reasonable estimates. But readers should know how thin the underlying evidence is. A UN Women policy brief that combed household surveys across 11 countries, from Senegal to Nepal to India, relied on data collected between 2003 and 2015, and its authors warned the sample was not representative. Most countries do not publish remittance data by the sender's sex at all. Banks and money transfer companies know exactly who sends what, and almost none of them publish it.</p>

<p>That gap matters because policy follows data. If a central bank cannot see that women pay more per dollar sent, it will not design rules to fix it.</p>

<h2>Women send more of less</h2>

<p>The claim that women send "a larger share of their income" is repeated so often it has become folklore. The evidence is more mixed than that.</p>

<ul>
<li>A study of migrants in Italy by the research centre CeSPI, summarised by the mobile industry body <a href="https://www.gsma.com/about-us/regions/europe/?p=8234" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GSMA</a>, found women earned 24 percent less than men on average and sent an average of 425 euros against men's 469 euros. As a share of monthly income, women sent about 12 percent and men about 13 percent.</li>
<li>Manuel Orozco's 2004 survey of Latin American senders, presented to the <a href="https://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/csw50/statements/CSW%20HLP%20Manuel%20Orozco.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UN Commission on the Status of Women</a>, found women remitting about 16 percent of income against 20 percent for men.</li>
<li>The UN Women brief found that in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda and Nepal, women's average remittances matched or exceeded men's in at least one channel, even though women earn less.</li>
</ul>

<p>So the honest summary is this. Women's remittances are close to men's in absolute terms, which given lower earnings means a large and often similar share of income. Whether that share is higher depends on the country, the job and the survey. What is consistent across studies is the pattern: women send smaller amounts, more often, for longer.</p>

<h2>Women receive most of the money</h2>

<p>On the receiving end the picture is clearer. Orozco's Latin America work found about two-thirds of recipients were women. Later studies collected by GSMA show the same tilt elsewhere.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Country or region</th><th>Women as share of recipients</th><th>Source and year</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Colombia</td><td>70%</td><td>IOM and UN-INSTRAW, 2007</td></tr>
<tr><td>Guatemala (main recipients)</td><td>63%</td><td>IOM and UN-INSTRAW, 2007</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar</td><td>60% (75% of them rural)</td><td>UNCDF, 2017</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nepal</td><td>58%</td><td>UNCDF, 2019</td></tr>
<tr><td>Latin America (regional survey)</td><td>About two-thirds</td><td>Orozco, 2004 survey</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Guatemala is the sharpest illustration. In the same 2007 IOM survey, men were 74.2 percent of senders and women 63 percent of main recipients, according to an <a href="https://ddrn.dk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Gender-migration-remittances-infosheet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IOM information sheet</a>. The classic remittance household is a man abroad and a woman at home running the budget. Increasingly, as in the Philippines, it is a woman abroad and a grandmother or sister at home caring for her children. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/philippines-remittances-ofw/">Philippine remittances and OFWs</a> covers that corridor in detail.</p>

<h2>The fee penalty for sending small amounts</h2>

<p>Smaller, more frequent transfers are expensive. Most remittance prices combine a fixed fee with an exchange rate margin, and the fixed part weighs heaviest on small sends. Orozco estimated in 2017 that, relative to income, women may pay more than 20 percent more in fees than men, as GSMA reports.</p>

<p><b>Worked example.</b> GSMA cites an average remittance of about $500 and an average mobile money remittance of about $80. Imagine a transfer service that charges a flat $5 fee plus a 1 percent exchange margin (an illustrative price, not any specific provider's).</p>

<ul>
<li>A single $500 transfer costs $5 plus $5 in margin, or $10. That is 2 percent.</li>
<li>Sending the same $500 as six transfers of about $83 costs six flat fees ($30) plus $5 in margin, or $35. That is 7 percent.</li>
</ul>

<p>The second sender pays three and a half times as much to move the same money. She is not making a mistake. She sends small amounts because she is paid weekly, because her employer holds her wages, or because she wants her family to receive steady sums rather than a lump that someone else might spend. The World Bank's global average cost of sending $200 was 6.36 percent in Q3 2025, still more than double the 3 percent target in the Sustainable Development Goals. For the woman sending $80 at a time, the effective price is often worse. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home in 2026</a> breaks down corridor prices.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>24%</b><span>lower average earnings for migrant women in Italy (CeSPI)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>20%+</b><span>more paid in fees relative to income by women (Orozco)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>700M</b><span>women without a financial account (Findex 2025)</span></div></div>

<h2>What changes when women control the money</h2>

<p>Here the research is more striking. Three findings stand out.</p>

<p><b>Control changes saving behaviour.</b> In a field experiment with 898 Salvadoran migrants in Washington, DC, economists Nava Ashraf, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez and Dean Yang offered different kinds of savings accounts in El Salvador. According to <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/fr/print/pdf/node/1551?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-PAL's summary</a>, an account in the recipient's name raised account opening by 16.4 percentage points; a joint account by 21.4 points; an account the migrant controlled alone by 34 points. Offering joint or sole control roughly doubled total household savings from a base of about $430. The lesson for designers: who holds the key to the money changes how much money there is.</p>

<p><b>Women at home often gain decision power, but not always.</b> An IOM study in Egypt found that in about two-thirds of households with a male migrant, women became household heads; half of those women decided alone how remittances were spent and 36 percent decided jointly with their husbands. In Angola, by contrast, male heads usually made the decisions even though 84 percent said women should always be consulted.</p>

<p><b>Money in women's hands is spent differently.</b> UN Women research reported by GSMA finds women recipients put more toward health care, food, shelter and education. In Kenya, the economists Tavneet Suri and William Jack found mobile money access raised daily per-capita consumption by 2 percent, with female-headed households gaining twice as much as male-headed ones. We look at spending in more detail in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/">what remittances actually pay for</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The person who receives a remittance is not always the person who decides what it buys. Products that ignore that difference miss half the story.</blockquote>

<h2>Accounts, phones and the gaps that remain</h2>

<p>Financial inclusion has improved fast. The World Bank's <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/more-women-have-financial-accounts--yet-equal-access-and-use-rem" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Findex 2025</a> found 73 percent of women in low- and middle-income economies had an account in 2024, up 7 points from 2021, and 58 percent made or received a digital payment. About 60 percent of women who opened an account did so to receive a payment from a government or employer, which is a reminder that the first transfer matters. Around 80 percent of women in developing economies own a mobile phone.</p>

<p>But roughly 700 million women still lack an account, and in Sub-Saharan Africa women are 12 percentage points less likely than men to have one. India's experience with Jan Dhan accounts shows both sides: mass account opening is achievable, and using those accounts takes much longer. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data/">Jan Dhan and financial inclusion data</a> looks at that gap, and our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa and mobile money in Africa</a> covers the channel that has done most to close it.</p>

<p>Migrant women face a specific problem on the sending side too. The UN Women brief notes that women are about 73.4 percent of the world's migrant domestic workers, around 8.5 million people. In the UAE, housekeepers and nannies are among the 14 domestic categories for which salary payment through the Wage Protection System is still optional, as we explain in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/">Gulf wage protection and payroll cards</a>. A worker paid in cash by the household she lives in has no payroll record, no card and often no easy way to reach a remittance counter on her own. An IOM project in Malaysia found 20 percent of Indonesian women workers said their employer, agent or a sibling sent money for them, against almost no men.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the Philippine Statistics Authority's results for its 2025 survey of overseas Filipinos are due around the end of the year, following the December 2025 release for 2024. Watch whether women's share, 57.2 percent last time, keeps rising.</li>
<li><b>End of 2027:</b> the G20's targets for cheaper, faster cross-border payments fall due. Regulators who want to hit them will have to deal with the small-transfer pricing that hits women hardest.</li>
<li><b>16 June 2027:</b> the next International Day of Family Remittances. A useful test of progress would be whether any major remittance provider or central bank finally publishes sender data by sex.</li>
<li><b>Gulf domestic work rules:</b> any move by the UAE to make WPS mandatory for housekeepers and nannies would bring the most excluded women senders into the formal system.</li>
</ul>

<p>The direction is clear even where the numbers are fuzzy. Women are half the senders and most of the receivers. They send smaller amounts, pay more for it, and spend the money on the things that build a household. Pricing, product design and regulation built around the average male sender are leaving money on the table, mostly women's money.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/women-and-remittances.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Crypto Licences Explained: MiCA CASP, VARA, MAS, FCA and US MTLs</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>How crypto licences work in 2026: MiCA CASP authorisation, US money transmitter licences, NY BitLicense, Dubai VARA capital, MAS and the UK FCA regime.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Two founders in Bengaluru want to let Gulf-based workers buy a dollar stablecoin and send it home. Before writing a line of code they hit the question that decides their burn rate for the next two years: which licence, where? A Dubai licence for an exchange means locking up at least AED 1.5 million of paid-up capital. An EU authorisation gives them 27 member states at once but meant a hard deadline for anyone operating under old national rules. The US means a licence in nearly every state. India asks only for registration with its financial intelligence unit. Same product, five very different paths.</p>

<p>The vocabulary alone is confusing. The FATF calls these firms virtual asset service providers (VASPs). The EU calls them crypto-asset service providers (CASPs). The US mostly treats them as money transmitters. The UK has registered them for anti-money laundering purposes and is now moving to full authorisation. This guide sorts out what each regime requires, what it costs, and how long it takes.</p>

<h2>Why licensing became the main battleground</h2>

<p>The FATF's July 2026 <a href="https://fiaumalta.org/app/uploads/2026/07/7th-targeted-update-on-implementation-fatf-standards-vas-vasps-2026.pdf.coredownload.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">targeted update</a> found that 95 of 130 responding jurisdictions (73%) require VASPs to be licensed or registered, but only 76 have actually licensed or registered one. Just 59 of 149 assessed jurisdictions met or mostly met the FATF's licensing criterion, and 39 of 114 extend licensing to certain offshore VASPs serving their residents. Everything else in crypto regulation, from the Travel Rule to sanctions screening, depends on knowing who the regulated firms are. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">Travel Rule explainer</a> shows how those obligations sit on top of a licence.</p>

<h2>European Union: the MiCA CASP authorisation</h2>

<p>The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation entered into force in June 2023 and applied in full from 30 December 2024. A CASP authorised by one national regulator can passport its services across the EU without separate licences in each member state. Prudential requirements are set either as a fixed minimum or in proportion to the previous year's fixed overheads, depending on the services offered.</p>

<p>The key date for 2026 was 1 July. Under MiCA's grandfathering clause, firms already serving clients under national law before 30 December 2024 could keep operating until 1 July 2026 or until their MiCA application was decided, according to <a href="https://www.esma.europa.eu/esmas-activities/digital-finance-and-innovation/markets-crypto-assets-regulation-mica" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESMA</a>. That window has now shut. In a <a href="https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-06/ESMA75-113276571-1710_Public_Statement_MiCA_transitional_period_ends.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June 2026 statement</a>, ESMA told unauthorised firms to stop onboarding EU clients and marketing immediately, limit activity to helping clients sell, transfer or close positions, and keep anti-money laundering controls running throughout the wind-down. Non-EU firms cannot solicit EU clients, and custody cannot be outsourced to an unauthorised entity.</p>

<p>For users, the practical check is ESMA's interim MiCA register, updated weekly, which lists authorised CASPs alongside a separate file of non-compliant entities. Stablecoin issuers follow a separate track under MiCA, explained in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained/">MiCA e-money and asset-referenced tokens</a>.</p>

<h2>United Kingdom: from registration to full authorisation</h2>

<p>For several years the UK has required crypto firms within scope of the Money Laundering Regulations to register with the FCA. That registration is narrow: it covers anti-money laundering supervision, not conduct, capital or client asset protection. The FCA says it has three months to decide an application, but the clock only starts once it has everything it needs, and case officers are very likely to ask for more, per its <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/cryptoassets/how-apply-registration" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application guidance</a>. Refused or withdrawn applications get no fee refund.</p>

<p>A full regime is now coming. The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Cryptoassets) Regulations 2026 were made on 4 February 2026, and the FCA published final rules on 30 June 2026. The <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/cryptoassets-information" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FCA's timeline</a> opens the application window on 30 September 2026, closes it on 28 February 2027, and expects the regime to take effect on 25 October 2027. The FCA has published transitional provisions for firms already registered under the MLRs, which will need FSMA permission under the new regime. Our piece on the UK stablecoin regime covers the parallel rules for issuers.</p>

<h2>United States: a licence in nearly every state</h2>

<p>The US has no single federal crypto licence for spot trading. A business that exchanges, transfers or holds crypto for customers registers with FinCEN as a money services business, then needs a money transmitter licence in each state where it operates. Notabene's <a href="https://notabene.id/world/usa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US profile</a> notes that Montana is the exception. New York requires its own BitLicense, and Wyoming offers a special-purpose depository institution charter.</p>

<p>Each state runs its own application, surety bond, net worth test and examination schedule. That is why large US platforms spend years accumulating licences and why many foreign firms simply exclude US users. The CFTC's October 2026 rulemaking on leveraged retail crypto trading would create an optional federal registration category as an alternative to state licensing for those products, as The Block reported. A broader federal regime depends on Congress; see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-crypto-market-structure-law/">US crypto market structure law</a>.</p>

<h2>Dubai: VARA's two-step licence and hard capital numbers</h2>

<p>Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority licenses virtual asset activity in the emirate. Its process has two stages, set out on <a href="https://www.vara.ae/en/licenses-and-register/licence-applications/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VARA's licence page</a>. First comes an Approval to Incorporate, issued after an initial disclosure questionnaire, a business plan, details of owners and managers, and payment of about half the application fee. The firm can set up but cannot yet carry on virtual asset activity. Then comes the full VASP licence, after further documentation, interviews and payment of the remaining fee and the first year's supervision fee.</p>

<p>VARA is unusually precise about capital. Its <a href="https://rulebooks.vara.ae/rulebook/b-paid-capital" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Company Rulebook</a> sets paid-up capital per activity, held in a UAE bank trust account or a surety bond naming VARA as beneficiary.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>VARA activity</th><th>Paid-up capital (higher of)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Exchange services</td><td>AED 1,500,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Broker-dealer services</td><td>AED 600,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Custody services</td><td>AED 600,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lending and borrowing</td><td>AED 500,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Transfer and settlement</td><td>AED 500,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Management and investment</td><td>AED 500,000 or 25% of fixed annual overheads</td></tr>
<tr><td>Advisory</td><td>AED 100,000</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Lower figures apply to exchanges, broker-dealers and managers that use a separately licensed custodian. For more on the wider UAE picture, including the federal central bank and Abu Dhabi's ADGM, see our guide to UAE crypto regulation.</p>

<h2>Worked example: capital for a Dubai exchange with custody</h2>

<p>Suppose the Bengaluru founders apply to VARA for exchange and custody services and run their own custody. VARA requires a separate calculation for each activity, using only that activity's share of fixed annual overheads.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Exchange:</b> fixed overheads of AED 7,000,000. Twenty-five percent is AED 1,750,000, which beats the AED 1,500,000 floor. Requirement: <b>AED 1,750,000</b>.</li>
<li><b>Custody:</b> fixed overheads of AED 2,000,000. Twenty-five percent is AED 500,000, below the AED 600,000 floor. Requirement: <b>AED 600,000</b>.</li>
<li><b>Total locked up:</b> AED 2,350,000, reconciled monthly.</li>
<li><b>Alternative:</b> outsource custody to a licensed custodian, drop the custody licence, and the exchange floor falls to the higher of AED 800,000 or 15% of overheads. On AED 7,000,000 that is AED 1,050,000, less than half the original requirement.</li>
</ol>

<p>The lesson generalises. In most regimes, the cheapest licence is the one for the activities you do not perform yourself, and custody is the activity regulators price highest.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The cheapest crypto licence is usually the one for the activity you outsource.</blockquote>

<h2>Singapore and India: two lighter-touch starting points</h2>

<p>Singapore licenses digital payment token (DPT) services under the Payment Services Act 2019. Firms whose volumes stay under SGD 3 million a month across regulated services, or SGD 1.5 million for a single service, can hold a Standard Payment Institution licence; above that, they need a Major Payment Institution licence, according to a <a href="https://www.tookitaki.com/compliance-hub/payment-services-act-singapore-aml-obligations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tookitaki summary</a>. DPT licensees must follow MAS Notice PSN02, including Travel Rule data on transfers. Our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/">stablecoin regulation in Asia and the Gulf</a> covers MAS's separate stablecoin framework.</p>

<p>India does not license crypto exchanges at all. Since March 2023, VDA service providers have had to register with the Financial Intelligence Unit as reporting entities under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, as Mondaq explains. FIU-IND has also blocked web access for several platforms over non-compliance with the Act. Our explainer on India's crypto regulation has the detail.</p>

<h2>The licence map side by side</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Jurisdiction</th><th>Licence</th><th>Regulator</th><th>Scope</th><th>Key 2026-27 date</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>EU</td><td>MiCA CASP authorisation</td><td>National authority, ESMA register</td><td>Passport to all member states</td><td>Grandfathering ended 1 Jul 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>UK</td><td>MLR registration, then FSMA authorisation</td><td>FCA</td><td>UK only</td><td>Window 30 Sep 2026 to 28 Feb 2027; live 25 Oct 2027</td></tr>
<tr><td>US</td><td>FinCEN MSB plus state MTLs; NY BitLicense</td><td>FinCEN, state regulators, NYDFS</td><td>State by state</td><td>CFTC federal path proposed Oct 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dubai</td><td>VASP licence per activity</td><td>VARA</td><td>Dubai</td><td>Company Rulebook effective 19 Jun 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>SPI or MPI licence for DPT services</td><td>MAS</td><td>Singapore</td><td>PSN02 Travel Rule in force since Jan 2020</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>Reporting entity registration</td><td>FIU-IND</td><td>AML only, no conduct licence</td><td>CARF reporting from 2027</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Our view: the EU passport has become the most valuable single licence in crypto, because it converts one approval into a market of 27 countries while the US still requires dozens. The UK's 2027 regime will test whether a mid-sized market can compete on clarity rather than scale. And Dubai's published capital tables are a model other regulators should copy. Founders can price a licence before they apply.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>30 September 2026 to 28 February 2027:</b> the FCA's application window for the new UK regime. How many registered firms apply, and how many are turned away, will shape UK market structure.</li>
<li><b>12 November 2026:</b> the EBA begins direct supervision of USDC as the EU's first significant e-money token, per its <a href="https://www.eba.europa.eu/publications-and-media/press-releases/eba-classifies-usdc-first-significant-e-money-token-european-union" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2026 announcement</a>.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026 into 2027:</b> the European Commission's MiCA review; ESMA's September 2026 response called for changes to make the rules clearer and ready for emerging services.</li>
<li><b>25 October 2027:</b> the UK's FSMA crypto regime takes effect.</li>
<li><b>US:</b> final text of the CFTC's federal registration category, and whether Congress revives the market structure bill after the November 2026 elections.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article describes licensing regimes in general terms for information only and is not legal advice. Requirements change frequently; firms should confirm current rules and fees with the relevant regulator and qualified counsel.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoins vs CBDCs vs Tokenised Deposits: Who Owes You the Money?</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised deposits all look like digital money on a phone. The difference is who stands behind them. A plain 2026 comparison.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">Open a wallet app in 2026 and a dollar can arrive in at least three different forms that look identical on screen. One is a stablecoin issued by a private company. One is central bank money. One is a bank deposit that has been turned into a token. They behave alike until something goes wrong, and then the only question that matters is who owes you the money.</p>

<h2>The one question that sorts them</h2>
<p>Every form of money is a promise. Cash is a promise from the central bank. A bank balance is a promise from your bank, backed by deposit insurance and regulation. Digital money in tokens follows the same logic:</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>A stablecoin</b> is a promise from a private issuer, backed by reserves the issuer holds.</li>
  <li><b>A CBDC</b> is a promise from the central bank, issued digitally.</li>
  <li><b>A tokenised deposit</b> is a promise from a commercial bank, recorded on a ledger as a token.</li>
</ul>
<p>Speed, cost and programmability can be similar across all three. The liability is what differs.</p>

<h2>The comparison</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th></th><th>Stablecoin</th><th>CBDC</th><th>Tokenised deposit</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Who owes you</td><td>Private issuer</td><td>Central bank</td><td>Commercial bank</td></tr>
<tr><td>Backing</td><td>Reserves of cash and short-term government debt</td><td>The state</td><td>Bank balance sheet, capital and deposit protection</td></tr>
<tr><td>Who can hold it</td><td>Anyone with a wallet, subject to local rules</td><td>Public (retail) or banks only (wholesale)</td><td>Usually the bank's own clients</td></tr>
<tr><td>Runs on</td><td>Public blockchains</td><td>Central bank systems</td><td>Bank or shared ledgers, sometimes public chains</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest to holder</td><td>Usually none</td><td>Usually none; China's e-CNY now pays</td><td>Possible, like a deposit</td></tr>
<tr><td>2026 example</td><td>USDT, USDC</td><td>e₹, e-CNY, planned digital euro</td><td>JPMorgan's JPMD</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<h2>Stablecoins: big, global and private</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$306B</b><span>total stablecoin market cap, October 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>60%</b><span>share held by Tether's USDT</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$73B</b><span>circulating USDC</span></div>
</div>
<p>According to <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DefiLlama</a>, stablecoins were worth about $306 billion in October 2026, with USDT and USDC together making up more than four fifths of that. Their great strength is reach: a freelancer in Lagos and a client in Toronto can both hold the same token on the same network without sharing a bank. If you are new to them, start with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">what is a stablecoin</a>.</p>
<p>The weakness is the one central bankers keep pointing out. In its June 2025 annual report, the BIS argued that stablecoins fail three tests of sound money, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/359518/bis-stablecoins-tests-moniness-tokenization-circle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a> reported. Singleness: different stablecoins can trade at slightly different values, unlike bank money that always swaps at par. Elasticity: issuers can only create new tokens when someone pays in full upfront, so supply cannot stretch like bank credit. Integrity: not every issuer applies the same anti-money-laundering checks. New laws in the US and EU address some of this, which we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA</a>.</p>

<h2>CBDCs: the safest promise, the hardest sell</h2>
<p>A CBDC is as safe as money gets, because the central bank cannot run out of its own currency. India's e₹, for example, is legal tender and a direct RBI liability, according to the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/commonman/English/scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=3686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI's FAQ</a>. But retail CBDCs face an awkward trade-off. If they are too attractive, people pull money out of banks. So designers cap them and pay no interest, which makes them less appealing to use. That is why the digital euro will have a holding limit and why China switched the e-CNY to interest-bearing bank deposit money in 2026.</p>
<p>Wholesale CBDCs, used only between banks, avoid that trade-off and are moving faster. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">our CBDC tracker</a> for where each country stands.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Ask who you would call if the money vanished. That tells you which kind of digital money you hold.</blockquote>

<h2>Tokenised deposits: the banks' answer</h2>
<p>Tokenised deposits are the newest of the three and the least visible to consumers. In November 2025, JPMorgan rolled out its deposit token, JPMD, on Base, a public blockchain network, after a pilot, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/378493/jpmorgan-deposit-token-jpm-coin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. It represents ordinary JPMorgan deposits, is available to institutional clients around the clock, and settles almost instantly.</p>
<p>The appeal for banks is obvious. A tokenised deposit keeps money on the bank's balance sheet, where it can support lending, while gaining the speed and programmability of a token. It also inherits bank regulation, which answers the integrity worry. The BIS-led Project Agorá is built around the same idea: tokenised deposits settling against tokenised central bank reserves. In May 2026 its prototype settled cross-border payments in seconds across seven central banks' systems.</p>
<p>The limitation is reach. A deposit token from one bank is mainly useful between that bank's clients, or between banks that agree to accept each other's tokens.</p>

<h2>One invoice, three ways to get paid</h2>
<p>Imagine a graphic designer in Nairobi invoicing a small agency in London for $1,000.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Paid in a stablecoin:</b> the agency sends USDC from its wallet and the designer sees it in minutes, any day of the week. She then needs a licensed exchange or provider to turn it into shillings, and she is trusting the issuer's reserves while she holds it.</li>
  <li><b>Paid in a CBDC:</b> today this barely works across borders for individuals. Neither country offers a retail CBDC the two could use, and cross-border CBDC links are still largely wholesale arrangements between banks.</li>
  <li><b>Paid in a tokenised deposit:</b> this works only if both businesses bank somewhere that issues and accepts the same deposit token, which for now means large institutional clients.</li>
</ul>
<p>The example shows why each form has found a different home. Stablecoins win on reach for individuals and small firms. Tokenised deposits suit big corporates already inside a bank's network. CBDCs mostly operate behind the scenes.</p>

<h2>The lines are blurring</h2>
<p>The neat categories are already breaking down. China's e-CNY now sits on commercial bank balance sheets and pays interest, which makes it look like a tokenised deposit with central bank oversight. Regulated stablecoins hold more of their reserves in short-term government debt and are subject to bank-like supervision. Banks are putting deposit tokens on public blockchains that stablecoins use.</p>
<p>Our view is that the end state will not be one winner. Central bank money will settle the system underneath. Tokenised deposits will dominate between large institutions. Stablecoins will keep their edge where reach matters most, such as cross-border transfers to people without a shared bank, which is why they have become central to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/scope-of-stablecoins/">payments far beyond crypto trading</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Market data is as of October 2026 and changes daily.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Digital Public Infrastructure Explained: India Stack and the G20 Model</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>What digital public infrastructure is: Aadhaar, UPI, DigiLocker, Account Aggregator and ONDC at scale, the G20 DPI framework, and which countries adopt it.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A loan officer at a small finance company in Coimbatore can now approve a working-capital loan for a textile job-worker without collecting a single photocopy. The applicant's identity is confirmed through Aadhaar eKYC, eighteen months of bank statements arrive through an Account Aggregator after she taps consent on her phone, her GST and certificates come from DigiLocker, and the money lands by UPI or NEFT the same afternoon. None of those systems belongs to the lender, and none of them was built for lending. That is the practical meaning of digital public infrastructure, and it explains why so many governments now send delegations to study it.</p>

<p>It also explains the hard questions. Shared rails create shared points of failure, and a stack built by the state raises issues of privacy, exclusion and competition that a single app never would.</p>

<h2>What "digital public infrastructure" actually means</h2>

<p>The term entered diplomatic vocabulary in 2023. At their meeting in Bengaluru on 19 August 2023, G20 digital economy ministers agreed a G20 Framework for Systems of Digital Public Infrastructure, which the <a href="https://www.mea.gov.in/Images/CPV/G20-New-Delhi-Leaders-Declaration.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the G20 Leaders' Declaration</a> of 9-10 September 2023 welcomed as a voluntary, suggested framework for how DPI is developed, deployed and governed.</p>

<p>In plain terms, DPI is a set of shared digital systems that any public or private service can build on, usually covering three functions:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Identity:</b> proving who someone is, online, at low cost.</li>
<li><b>Payments:</b> moving money between any two accounts in real time.</li>
<li><b>Data exchange:</b> letting a person share verified records with consent.</li>
</ul>

<p>The distinguishing features are open standards and interoperability. A private bank, a fintech and a government department all connect to the same rail on the same terms. That is different from a government building an app, and different from a private platform that owns its users.</p>

<h2>India's layers, at 2026 scale</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Layer</th><th>What it does</th><th>Latest reported scale</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Aadhaar</td><td>Biometric identity and eKYC</td><td>145.32 crore enrolments; 2,632.51 crore eKYC transactions (UIDAI dashboard)</td></tr>
<tr><td>UPI</td><td>Real-time account-to-account payments</td><td>About 800 million payments a day in 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>DBT on PFMS and NPCI</td><td>Government transfers to Aadhaar-mapped accounts</td><td>About ₹53.8 lakh crore cumulative across 320 schemes</td></tr>
<tr><td>DigiLocker</td><td>Verified digital documents</td><td>70 crore+ users; 900 crore+ documents issued</td></tr>
<tr><td>Account Aggregator</td><td>Consent-based financial data sharing</td><td>500 million+ consents fulfilled; 310 million+ accounts linked (Sep 2026)</td></tr>
<tr><td>ONDC</td><td>Open protocol for digital commerce</td><td>DPIIT-led; expanding across retail, logistics, mobility and financial services</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>145 cr</b><span>Aadhaar enrolments</span></div><div class="stat"><b>70 cr+</b><span>DigiLocker users</span></div><div class="stat"><b>₹3.82L cr</b><span>AA-enabled lending in FY26</span></div></div>

<p>The figures come from the <a href="https://uidai.gov.in/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UIDAI dashboard</a>, the <a href="https://digilocker.gov.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DigiLocker</a> homepage, the DBT Mission and <a href="https://sahamati.org.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sahamati</a>, the Account Aggregator industry body, which the RBI recognised as a self-regulatory organisation in June 2026. The growth curve is steep. In September 2022, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/g20-delhi-summit-likely-to-have-dedicated-vertical-for-digital-public-goods-122111101534_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a> UPI at about 7.3 billion transactions a month; four years later it handles more than three times that. The same report noted that close to 1,000 government schemes already used Aadhaar authentication.</p>

<p>For the payments layer in more depth see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI and its global expansion</a>; for the data layer, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/">open banking and Account Aggregator</a>.</p>

<h2>How the layers compound: a worked example</h2>

<p>The value of DPI is not in any single layer but in what happens when they combine. Account Aggregator lending is the clearest case, because Sahamati publishes both volume and value.</p>

<ul>
<li>In FY26, AA-enabled lending reached ₹3.82 lakh crore across 3.68 crore loans.</li>
<li>That is an average of about ₹1.04 lakh per loan (₹3.82 lakh crore divided by 3.68 crore). These are small loans: working capital, personal loans, two-wheeler finance.</li>
<li>Sahamati says this was 8.4% of retail and MSME lending by value. Working backwards, that implies a total retail and MSME lending pool of roughly ₹45 lakh crore for the year, of which AA already touched a meaningful slice.</li>
<li>By volume, AA's share was higher, 11.8%, which confirms that it is used disproportionately for smaller tickets, exactly the borrowers who were hardest to underwrite on paper.</li>
</ul>

<p>Now add the other layers to the Coimbatore loan. Aadhaar eKYC replaces a branch visit. DigiLocker replaces document collection. AA replaces bank-statement PDFs, which are easy to forge. UPI or NEFT replaces a cheque. Each step cuts cost by a modest amount; together they make a ₹1 lakh loan economical to underwrite. That is the compounding effect policymakers abroad are trying to reproduce.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">India did not build a fintech; it built the roads, and let thousands of firms run vehicles on them.</blockquote>

<h2>Who else is building it</h2>

<p>India's approach is now one model among several, and the export channels are multiplying.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Identity.</b> <a href="https://www.mosip.io/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MOSIP</a>, the open-source identity platform set up at IIIT Bangalore in 2018, reports 32 country engagements and 14 national rollouts. Countries listed include Ethiopia, Morocco, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Togo, Uganda, Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso.</li>
<li><b>Campaigns.</b> The <a href="https://50in5.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50-in-5 campaign</a>, launched on 8 November 2023, aims for 50 countries to design, launch or scale at least one DPI component within five years. It lists 41 members, from Brazil, Singapore and Norway to Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sri Lanka and Togo.</li>
<li><b>Convening.</b> The Global DPI Summit in Cairo on 1-3 October 2024 drew representatives from more than 100 countries, and its <a href="https://www.undp.org/digital/news/global-dpi-summit-outcome-statement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outcome statement</a> named seven priorities including universal safeguards, financing and interoperability standards for components such as digital wallets.</li>
<li><b>Payments links.</b> UPI connections abroad, starting with the <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQDisplay.aspx?Id=156" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UPI-PayNow linkage</a> with Singapore, extend the payments layer across borders; our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a> covers the multilateral version.</li>
<li><b>G20 follow-through.</b> The Delhi declaration also welcomed India's plan for a Global DPI Repository and took note of a proposed One Future Alliance to fund and support DPI in low- and middle-income countries.</li>
</ul>

<p>Brazil is the other heavyweight. Pix is a payments DPI in all but name, built by a central bank rather than a ministry. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix and Drex</a> compares the two approaches.</p>

<h2>Why the development case is strong</h2>

<p>The World Bank's <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/8325e21eaf7ab04cd8a8eede4d5e06da-0050112023/original/DPI-Workshop-Why-this-matters-Julia-Clark-Georgina-Marin.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">identity and G2P team</a> sets out the stakes: 850 million people worldwide lack any ID, and around 5 billion lack an official digital identity usable online. During COVID-19, among 85 countries with data, those with existing digital ID records and data-sharing platforms reached over three times as many beneficiaries as those that had to collect data from scratch. In India, research cited by the same team found leakages in employment and pension programmes fell 41% after biometric payments were introduced.</p>

<p>India's welfare system is the domestic proof. Direct Benefit Transfer works only because three layers meet: Jan Dhan gave nearly every household an account, Aadhaar gave every account a verifiable owner, and NPCI's mapper lets a ministry pay an Aadhaar number without knowing the bank. On that combination the government has routed about ₹53.8 lakh crore. A Finance Ministry assessment published by PIB in 2025 credited the system with cutting subsidies from an average of 16% of central spending in 2009-2013 to 9% in 2023-24, even as the number of beneficiary records grew sixteen-fold. Those figures blend genuine leakage savings with people dropped by verification failures, but the scale effect is not in dispute.</p>

<p>That is the strongest argument for DPI. It lowers the fixed cost of reaching people, for governments and companies alike, and the benefit is largest for those who were once too expensive to serve.</p>

<h2>The critiques that deserve answers</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Exclusion.</b> When a rail becomes mandatory, failure to authenticate becomes failure to receive. India's move to Aadhaar-only wage payments for rural employment in January 2024 is the standard example; we cover it in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">Direct Benefit Transfer</a>.</li>
<li><b>Privacy and surveillance.</b> Shared identity across every service makes linking records easy. Consent-based designs such as Account Aggregator are a partial answer; independent oversight is the rest. UNDP and partners now promote a Universal DPI Safeguards Framework for exactly this reason.</li>
<li><b>Concentration risk.</b> A UPI outage is a national event. The more services depend on one rail, the higher the bar for uptime and cyber resilience.</li>
<li><b>Who captures the value.</b> Open rails do not guarantee open markets. On UPI, a handful of apps carry most volume, which is why regulators keep returning to market-share caps.</li>
<li><b>Exportability.</b> India's stack grew alongside a near-universal ID and a central government with unusual reach. Countries with weaker state capacity may find the identity layer, not the payments layer, is the binding constraint.</li>
</ul>

<h2>What this means for payments</h2>

<p>For anyone in payments, DPI changes where competition happens. When identity, data and settlement are public utilities, firms compete on credit, service and user experience rather than on owning the rails. That is good for users and hard on incumbents whose moat was distribution. ONDC is the attempt to apply the same logic to commerce: instead of a buyer app and a seller being locked inside one marketplace, both sides connect to a shared protocol and any participating app can show any participating seller. Whether that works as well for physical goods, with returns, logistics and disputes, as it does for money is still an open question, and ONDC has published far less performance data than UPI or Account Aggregator. Payments people should watch it closely, because a commerce protocol that settles over UPI would push even more retail flows onto public rails. It also creates a template for cross-border work: if two countries each have instant payment DPI, linking them is a far smaller project than building <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> relationships one bank at a time.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Sahamati's first year as an RBI-recognised SRO</b>, from June 2026: watch for conduct rules on consent design and data retention.</li>
<li><b>The 50-in-5 deadline in 2028.</b> The campaign has 41 of its target 50 countries; how many actually ship a live component is the real test.</li>
<li><b>MOSIP rollouts.</b> Movement from 14 national rollouts toward the 32 engaged countries will show whether open-source identity scales outside India.</li>
<li><b>India's Union Budget, expected 1 February 2027,</b> for funding of ONDC, DigiLocker and any international DPI commitments under the One Future Alliance idea.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article is for research and general information. It is not legal, financial or investment advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Virtual Cards in B2B Payments: Interchange, Rebates and Suppliers</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/virtual-cards-b2b/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/virtual-cards-b2b/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How B2B virtual cards work, what suppliers really pay in Visa interchange, how buyer rebates are funded, and why acceptance is still the hard part in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/virtual-cards-b2b.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">An accounts payable clerk at a hospital network in Ohio approves a $50,000 invoice from a linen supplier. Instead of printing a cheque, her payment platform mints a sixteen-digit card number that can be charged once, for exactly that amount, by exactly that supplier, before it expires in a month. The supplier's receivables team keys it into a terminal. The hospital earns a rebate. The linen company pays a fee it may never have agreed to in writing. That three-way bargain is the whole story of B2B virtual cards, and almost every argument about them comes down to who ends up holding the cost.</p>

<h2>What a B2B virtual card actually is</h2>
<p>A virtual card is a commercial card account with no plastic, issued programmatically by a bank to a business buyer. In accounts payable, the common form is the single-use account: a number generated for one payment, with a hard limit, a merchant lock and a short expiry. The buyer funds it from its credit line with the issuing bank, and pays the bank later, usually on a monthly cycle.</p>
<p>That last detail matters more than the technology. A buyer that pays a supplier by card on day one and settles with its bank on day 30 or later has gained working capital that an ACH transfer never gives it. The supplier, meanwhile, is paid in roughly two business days through the card network, which is often faster than the buyer's normal terms. Both sides gain on timing. The price of that gain is interchange, which the supplier pays through its acquiring bank.</p>
<p>Virtual cards also solve a fraud problem that has dogged paper payables for decades. A stolen cheque can be washed and re-presented. A single-use card number that has already been charged for its full limit is worthless to a thief. That control, rather than rebates, is often what gets treasury teams to sign off.</p>

<h2>The market in numbers</h2>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$5.2T</b><span>virtual card transaction value, 2025 (Juniper)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$17.4T</b><span>Juniper forecast for 2029</span></div><div class="stat"><b>26%</b><span>US B2B payments still by cheque, 2025 (AFP)</span></div></div>
<p>Juniper Research, the analyst firm most often quoted on the category, put global virtual card transaction value at about $5.2 trillion in 2025 and projected $17.4 trillion by 2029, according to <a href="https://fintech.global/?p=193863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Global's summary of the study</a>. An earlier Juniper forecast, <a href="https://ibsintelligence.com/ibsi-news/juniper-research-virtual-card-transactions-to-reach-6-8-trillion-in-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by IBS Intelligence in 2021</a>, made the telling point about shape: B2B would be about 71% of virtual card value in 2026 but under 1% of transaction count. Business card payments are rare and large; consumer ones are frequent and small.</p>
<p>Treat those forecasts as directional. Analyst houses define "virtual card" differently, and some include consumer tokenised cards stored in wallets. The harder data comes from the networks and from US payment surveys.</p>
<p>Visa reported $1.8 trillion of commercial payments volume in fiscal 2025, up 7% in constant dollars, with revenue from its commercial and money movement business up 14%, per <a href="https://www.medianama.com/2025/11/223-visa-fy2025-earnings-ai-crypto-growth-revenue-hits-40b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MediaNama's breakdown of the results</a>. That figure covers all commercial cards, plastic and virtual, but it gives a sense of scale against Visa's total payments volume of about $14 trillion.</p>
<p>The incumbent virtual cards compete with is still the paper cheque. The Association for Financial Professionals found that 26% of US B2B payments were made by cheque in 2025, down from 81% in 2004, according to <a href="https://www.nacha.org/news/over-21-years-massive-drop-b2b-check-payments-study-finds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nacha's write-up of the AFP survey</a>. The bigger winner was ACH: B2B ACH volume rose from 2.9 billion payments in 2015 to 7.4 billion in 2024, worth $58.2 trillion. Cards are fighting for the slice between those two rails.</p>

<h2>Where the money comes from: interchange</h2>
<p>Interchange is the fee the supplier's bank pays the buyer's bank on every card transaction. In the US, Visa and Mastercard publish the schedules, and commercial cards sit at the top of them because issuers fund rebates and credit lines from the proceeds. The European Union's interchange caps, by contrast, do not apply to most commercial cards, which is one reason the economics look similar on both sides of the Atlantic despite very different consumer rules.</p>
<p>Visa's US schedule <a href="https://usa.visa.com/content/dam/VCOM/download/merchants/visa-usa-interchange-reimbursement-fees.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">effective April 18, 2026</a> shows the spread. A standard card-not-present purchase on a purchasing or corporate card costs 2.70% plus 10 cents. Send full line-item data and the transaction can qualify for Commercial Product 3 at 1.75% plus 10 cents. Large invoices paid card-not-present on purchasing cards drop sharply under Visa's Large Purchase Advantage tiers.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Visa US program (purchasing / corporate)</th><th>Rate (from Apr 2026)</th><th>Cost on a $50,000 invoice</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Non-qualified</td><td>2.95% + $0.10</td><td>$1,475.10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Commercial card not present</td><td>2.70% + $0.10</td><td>$1,350.10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Commercial card present</td><td>2.50% + $0.10</td><td>$1,250.10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Commercial Product 3 (line-item data)</td><td>1.75% + $0.10</td><td>$875.10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Large Purchase Advantage, $25,000.01 to $100,000</td><td>0.60% + $52.50</td><td>$352.50</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Interchange only. Suppliers also pay network assessments and their acquirer's markup, which vary by contract and are not shown.</p>

<p>The same invoice can therefore cost a supplier anywhere from about $350 to nearly $1,500, depending on card type, how it is keyed and what data travels with it. A supplier that does not know which bucket its payments land in is almost certainly paying for the top rows.</p>

<h3>The data rules changed in 2025 and 2026</h3>
<p>Visa rebuilt its enhanced-data regime over the past eighteen months. Stripe's <a href="https://support.stripe.com/questions/understand-the-visa-commercial-enhanced-data-program-(cedp)" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guide to the Commercial Enhanced Data Program</a> lays out the timeline: a new scheme fee on Level 2, Level 3 and large-ticket transactions from April 2025, Level 3 replaced by CEDP and Product 3 rates in October 2025, higher Product 3 and Level 2 rates for business credit cards from January 2026, and Level 2 retired entirely in April 2026. Visa now checks whether line-item data is meaningful, not merely present. Suppliers that stuff "goods" into every product field risk losing the lower rate after the fact.</p>
<p>For suppliers, the practical effect is that cheap card acceptance now depends on clean invoice data. For AP platforms, it means the integration work that pulls line items out of an ERP has a direct dollar value.</p>

<h2>Rebates: the buyer's side of the ledger</h2>
<p>Issuers share part of the interchange with buyers as a rebate, typically scaled to annual spend and how fast the buyer repays. Commercial rebate schedules are private, but one large program publishes its results. The US government's GSA SmartPay cards carried $39.4 billion of spend in fiscal 2025 across more than 82 million transactions and 4.2 million accounts, and agencies earned $471 million in refunds, according to <a href="https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-seeks-innovative-solutions-for-gsa-smartpay-04032026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GSA's April 2026 release</a>. That works out to roughly 1.2% of spend returned to the buyer. <a href="https://smartpay.gsa.gov/about/statistics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GSA's own statistics page</a> warns against using its figures to calculate basis points for any one agency, so read 1.2% as a programme-wide average for a very large, very creditworthy buyer, not a benchmark for a mid-sized company.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Every rebate dollar a buyer books is a fee some supplier paid, usually without negotiating it.</blockquote>
<p>This is why virtual card programmes are sold to CFOs as revenue lines. A company moving $100 million of supplier spend to cards at a 1% rebate earns $1 million a year for changing a payment method. It is also why suppliers push back.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one invoice, three ways</h2>
<p>Take the hospital's $50,000 linen invoice, paid on 30-day terms, and assume the buyer's bank shares a rebate of 1.0% of spend.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>ACH on day 30.</b> The supplier waits a month and pays a bank transfer fee measured in cents. The buyer earns nothing and keeps its cash for 30 days.</li>
<li><b>Virtual card on day 1, keyed without data.</b> Under the commercial card-not-present rate the supplier's interchange is $1,350.10, so it nets about $48,650 before acquirer fees, but gets paid roughly four weeks sooner. The buyer books a $500 rebate and does not pay its card bill until the cycle closes, gaining another month of float.</li>
<li><b>Virtual card on day 1, qualifying for Large Purchase Advantage.</b> Interchange falls to $352.50. The supplier keeps about $998 more than in case 2. The issuer has far less to share, so a buyer's rebate on large-ticket spend is usually lower.</li>
</ol>
<p>If the supplier's own cost of short-term borrowing is around 8% a year, getting $50,000 a month early is worth roughly $330. Against a $1,350 fee the card loses; against $352.50 it roughly breaks even. That arithmetic, not marketing, is what decides whether a supplier says yes.</p>

<h2>Supplier acceptance is the bottleneck</h2>
<p>Buyers cannot force cards on suppliers. AvidXchange, one of the largest US AP networks, says in its <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858257/000095017025029974/avdx-20241231.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024 annual report</a> that suppliers choose card, ACH or cheque according to their own rules and perceived value, that it does not mandate a method, and that preferences can change at any time. The same filing shows the scale of the network: more than 8,500 buyer businesses and over 1.35 million suppliers paid in five years, with about $258.9 million of 2024 revenue coming from its card and direct ACH products combined.</p>
<p>The friction points are consistent across the industry:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Manual keying.</b> Many suppliers receive the card number by email and type it into a virtual terminal, which costs staff time and lands in higher interchange tiers.</li>
<li><b>Thin-margin sectors.</b> Distributors, construction subcontractors and freight firms working on 3% to 5% margins see a 2.7% fee as half their profit.</li>
<li><b>Surcharging.</b> Some suppliers add a card surcharge where law and network rules permit, which erodes the buyer's rebate and sours the relationship.</li>
<li><b>Reconciliation.</b> A card payment arrives in a merchant settlement batch, not tagged to an invoice, unless the AP platform sends remittance data alongside it.</li>
</ul>
<p>The vendors that win suppliers over tend to offer "straight-through" processing, where the platform charges the card on the supplier's behalf and posts remittance detail automatically, and large-ticket rates that make the fee comparable to the value of early cash.</p>

<h2>How virtual cards compare with the other B2B rails</h2>
<p>Cards are not the cheapest way to move a business payment and were never meant to be. Their case rests on control, float and data. ACH and same-day ACH are cheaper for the supplier and dominate recurring, high-value domestic flows. Real-time rails such as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/">FedNow and RTP</a> win on speed and certainty but carry no credit. Cross-border, the calculus changes again, because a card settles in the supplier's currency at network FX rates, and the alternatives include correspondent wires and, increasingly, stablecoin settlement. Our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a> cover those trade-offs, and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/">this primer on payment rails</a> sets out the basics.</p>
<p>For buyers, a sensible programme segments suppliers: cards for the long tail of small, frequent invoices and suppliers already set up for card acceptance; ACH for strategic suppliers with thin margins; real-time rails where speed is worth paying for. Programmes that try to push every supplier onto cards tend to stall.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Visa CEDP enforcement through 2026.</b> With Level 2 gone since April 18, 2026, watch whether Visa resumes verifying new merchants for the programme, which it paused in November 2025, and how many suppliers lose Product 3 rates on data-quality grounds.</li>
<li><b>GSA SmartPay 4.</b> GSA's request for information closed on June 19, 2026. The next-generation contract will show how the largest public card buyer in the world thinks about virtual accounts, data and refunds.</li>
<li><b>US interchange litigation and legislation.</b> Any move on the Credit Card Competition Act or merchant settlements could reach commercial cards, even though the debate centres on consumer cards.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin-linked commercial cards.</b> Visa reported 130 stablecoin-linked card programmes across 40 countries in fiscal 2025. If card networks settle in stablecoins with issuers, as we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement/">this explainer</a>, cross-border virtual card economics could shift.</li>
</ul>
<p>Virtual cards will keep growing because they give buyers something real: fraud control, working capital and a revenue line. The category's ceiling is set by suppliers, and the suppliers that matter most are the ones who have done the maths in the worked example above. Buyers and suppliers weighing a programme should model their own interchange tier and financing cost, and take advice from a qualified adviser before changing terms.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/virtual-cards-b2b.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Will Stablecoins Drain Bank Deposits? The $6 Trillion Debate</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Will stablecoins pull deposits out of banks? We compare Treasury, Fed, Standard Chartered and White House estimates and the fight over stablecoin yield.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 15 September 2026 the US Senate voted 49 to 50 on whether even to begin debating the crypto market structure bill. It fell well short of the 60 votes required. The bill did not fail on token classification or exchange rules. It failed, in large part, because banks and crypto firms could not agree on one narrow question: should a company be allowed to pay you something for holding a dollar stablecoin? Behind that question sits a bigger one that every finance ministry and central bank is now asking. If digital dollars become a normal place to park money, what happens to bank deposits, and to the loans those deposits fund?</p>

<p>The numbers thrown around in this debate range from about $2 billion to $6 trillion. That spread is not noise. It reflects completely different assumptions about who holds stablecoins, what the issuers do with the reserves, and whether holders get paid. This piece lines up the main estimates, explains why they disagree, and argues that the real risk sits less in Main Street America than in emerging-market banking systems where a dollar token is a genuine upgrade on the local currency.</p>

<h2>Why deposits matter more than the headline number</h2>

<p>A bank deposit is not just money sitting in a vault. For most banks it is the cheapest funding they have, and a checking account that pays close to nothing is the cheapest of all. Banks lend those balances out as mortgages, small-business credit and farm loans. If customers move money into a stablecoin, the issuer typically buys short-dated Treasury bills with the reserves. The dollars do not vanish, but they stop sitting on a bank balance sheet as low-cost funding.</p>

<p>That is the mechanism banks fear. It is also why the debate is less about total stablecoin supply, which DefiLlama put at about $306 billion as of October 2026, and more about which deposits move, and how fast.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$6.6T</b><span>US transactional deposits flagged as most exposed (TBAC, Apr 2025)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$500B</b><span>US deposits Standard Chartered says could shift by end-2028</span></div><div class="stat"><b>0.02%</b><span>Lending gain from a full yield ban, per the White House CEA</span></div></div>

<h2>The estimates, side by side</h2>

<p>The most quoted figure comes from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a group of bond dealers that advises the Treasury. Its <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACCharge2Q22025.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">April 2025 presentation on digital money</a> put US transactional deposits at about $6.6 trillion and identified them as the deposits most exposed to substitution, because they already pay little or no interest and move easily. It also used a Standard Chartered projection of a roughly $2 trillion stablecoin market by 2028. The $6.6 trillion is a pool at risk, not a forecast of outflows, but it is often quoted as if it were.</p>

<p>Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan turned that pool into a warning on the bank's January 2026 earnings call. According to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/385724/bank-of-america-ceo-stablecoin-yields" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>, he said up to $6 trillion, roughly 30 to 35 percent of US commercial bank deposits, could move into stablecoins if they are allowed to pay interest, citing Treasury work.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Source and date</th><th>Headline figure</th><th>What it actually measures</th><th>Key assumption</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>TBAC, Apr 2025</td><td>$6.6T</td><td>US transactional deposits most exposed to substitution</td><td>Pool at risk, not a forecast</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bank of America CEO, Jan 2026</td><td>Up to $6T</td><td>Possible deposit shift</td><td>Stablecoins allowed to pay interest</td></tr>
<tr><td>Standard Chartered, Oct 2025</td><td>$1T</td><td>EM bank deposits moving to stablecoins in about three years</td><td>EM stablecoin savings grow from $173B to $1.22T</td></tr>
<tr><td>Standard Chartered, Jan 2026</td><td>$500B</td><td>US bank deposits shifting by end-2028</td><td>$2T stablecoin market by decade end</td></tr>
<tr><td>Kansas City Fed, Aug 2025</td><td>$325B</td><td>Reduction in US bank loans</td><td>Market grows from about $250B to $900B, funded from deposits</td></tr>
<tr><td>White House CEA, Apr 2026</td><td>$2.1B</td><td>Extra lending if stablecoin yield is fully banned</td><td>Abundant reserves; most dollars recycled into banks</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Read the table from top to bottom and the estimates fall by three orders of magnitude. They are not really disagreeing about the same thing. The top rows describe how much money could theoretically move. The bottom rows try to measure the damage once you account for where the money goes next.</p>

<h2>Where the money goes after it leaves</h2>

<p>This is the part most coverage skips. When a household swaps $10,000 of deposits for a stablecoin, the issuer receives the $10,000. If it buys Treasury bills, the seller of those bills receives the cash and usually deposits it at a bank. The deposit has changed owner and possibly changed bank. It has not left the system.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Effects-of-Stablecoin-Yield-Prohibition-on-Bank-Lending.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Council of Economic Advisers paper</a> published in April 2026 builds its whole argument on this recycling. It estimates that banning yield entirely would raise bank lending by only about $2.1 billion, around 0.02 percent of loans, while costing users about $800 million a year in forgone returns. Its baseline assumes stablecoins equal about 1.7 percent of US deposits. Only the slice of reserves held as cash at banks, which the paper puts at about 12 percent for USDC, is fully siloed. To get a large lending hit, the authors had to stack several assumptions they themselves call implausible, including stablecoins growing to six times their current share and the Fed abandoning its ample-reserves framework.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/financial-market-infrastructure/7973524/stablecoin-growth-may-decrease-loan-supply-in-us-%E2%80%93-fed-study" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kansas City Fed analysis</a> by economist Stefan Jacewitz takes a less relaxed view. It estimates that each dollar moving from deposits into regulated stablecoins reduces bank lending by about 50 cents and raises net Treasury holdings by about 30 cents, because issuers hold roughly half their assets in government paper while banks hold about half in loans. Scale the stablecoin market from about $250 billion to $900 billion with deposit funding and you get roughly $325 billion less in bank loans.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The aggregate number is reassuring. The distribution is not.</blockquote>

<p>Both papers can be right at once. The CEA is measuring the whole US system. Jacewitz is pointing at the composition of balance sheets. Even when deposits come back to the banking system, they tend to come back to large banks that serve Treasury dealers and custodians, not to a community lender in Kansas. Standard Chartered's January 2026 note, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/387211/standard-chartered-warns-stablecoins-could-drain-500-billion-from-u-s-bank-deposits-by-2028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by The Block</a>, made exactly this point: regional banks, which rely most on net interest income, are the most exposed, while investment banks are the least.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one community bank</h2>

<p>Here is an illustration using round numbers, not a forecast for any real bank. Take a community bank with $1 billion in deposits, of which 30 percent, or $300 million, sits in non-interest checking accounts.</p>

<ol>
<li>Assume 5 percent of those checking balances, $15 million, moves into stablecoins over two years as local businesses start paying suppliers on-chain.</li>
<li>Apply the Kansas City Fed ratio of about 50 cents less lending per dollar moved: the bank's lending capacity falls by roughly $7.5 million.</li>
<li>If the bank replaces the lost $15 million with wholesale funding at about 3.65 percent, the reserve rate used in the CEA paper, its annual funding bill rises by about $547,500.</li>
<li>On a bank that might earn $10 million to $12 million a year, that is a visible but survivable hit to margins.</li>
</ol>

<p>Now change one variable. If stablecoins could pay 3.5 percent, the competitive yield the CEA assumes, the share of checking balances that moves would plausibly be much larger than 5 percent, because the customer is choosing between roughly zero and 3.5 percent rather than between zero and zero. That is the entire reason banks have spent so much effort on the yield question.</p>

<h2>The yield fight in Congress</h2>

<p>The <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act</a>, signed on 18 July 2025, already bars stablecoin issuers from paying holders interest or yield. Banks argued this left a gap: exchanges and wallet providers could still pass on rewards funded by the issuer's reserve income. The fight moved to the CLARITY Act, the broader <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/us-crypto-market-structure-law/">market structure bill</a>.</p>

<p>On 1 May 2026, Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks released compromise text that, as <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/05/01/clarity-act-text-lets-crypto-firms-offer-stablecoin-rewards-while-shielding-bank-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CoinDesk reported</a>, bans returns on balances that are economically equivalent to deposit interest but permits rewards tied to genuine activity, much like card rewards. Treasury and the CFTC would have a year to write the detailed rules. Coinbase accepted it. The big bank trade groups said it did not go far enough and ran a letter campaign for tighter language.</p>

<p>The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15 to 9 on 14 May. Then, according to <a href="https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/09/senate-fails-to-advance-the-clarity-act" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DLA Piper's summary</a>, the 15 September cloture vote failed with three Republicans joining Democrats, with objections spanning ethics rules, enforcement and state authority as well as yield. The practical result: the GENIUS Act's issuer ban stands, while the treatment of exchange and wallet rewards remains unsettled at the federal level.</p>

<h2>The real exposure is in emerging markets</h2>

<p>In the US, a stablecoin is mostly a dollar competing with another dollar. In Lagos, Cairo or Colombo it is a dollar competing with a currency that may have lost a large share of its value in a few years. That changes the calculus completely.</p>

<p>Standard Chartered's October 2025 report, <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/10/07/stablecoins-could-suck-us1-trillion-from-em-banks-in-next-three-years-standard-chartered-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">covered by Reuters via BNN Bloomberg</a>, estimated that stablecoin savings in developing economies were about $173 billion and could reach $1.22 trillion by the end of 2028, implying up to $1 trillion leaving emerging-market banks. It identified 16 high-risk countries, including Egypt, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Turkey, India, Brazil and South Africa. Even the full $1.22 trillion would equal only about 2 percent of deposits across those 16 countries, but deposit flight rarely spreads evenly. It concentrates in dollar-hungry savers during a currency scare.</p>

<p>Moody's, in a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/stablecoin-risks-cryptoization-rules-economies-moodys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2025 report</a>, called this "cryptoization": dollar tokens weakening a central bank's grip on rates and the exchange rate, and banks losing deposits as savers shift into wallets. It noted that fewer than a third of countries have comprehensive digital asset rules. This is why central banks such as the RBI have been far more cautious than Washington, and why several emerging economies are studying <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">tokenised deposits and CBDCs</a> as a domestic answer.</p>

<h2>What banks are doing about it</h2>

<p>Banks are not only lobbying. Many are building. The defensive play is the tokenised deposit: a bank liability that moves on a blockchain but stays on the bank's balance sheet and inside deposit insurance and capital rules. Others are positioning as reserve custodians for issuers, which keeps at least part of the reserve money as deposits. A third option is to issue a stablecoin through a subsidiary under the GENIUS Act framework. Each of these keeps the funding inside banking, and that is the real goal.</p>

<p>Our view: the systemic US risk is modest as long as issuers cannot pay yield and reserves recycle through the banking system. The distributional risk for regional banks is real but slow. The acute risk is in emerging markets with weak currencies and open crypto access, where a dollar token offers something the local bank cannot.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>November 2026:</b> Comptroller Jonathan Gould said the OCC would publish its <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/legal/2026/occ-promises-final-rule-for-genius-act-by-november/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final GENIUS Act rule by November</a>. Watch how it treats payments to holders by affiliates and partners. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act implementation tracker</a>.</li>
<li><b>Post-midterm session, November-December 2026:</b> whether Senate leaders try another vote on CLARITY before the 119th Congress ends in January 2027. If they do not, the bill must restart in the new Congress.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027:</b> the latest date the GENIUS Act can take effect, 18 months after enactment, unless final regulations arrive earlier and trigger the 120-day clock.</li>
<li><b>Quarterly bank results:</b> regional bank non-interest deposit balances are the single best real-world test of whether outflows are showing up.</li>
<li><b>EM central bank reports:</b> any data from the RBI, Central Bank of Egypt or Central Bank of Kenya on dollar stablecoin holdings would sharpen the emerging-market estimate considerably.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains research and policy debates. It is not investment advice. For how issuers earn from reserves, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Paying University Fees Abroad: Methods, FX, Deadlines and India&#x27;s LRS</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-international-student-fees/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-international-student-fees/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Guides</category><description>A family guide to paying tuition abroad: wire, education platforms and cards, FX timing, the paperwork, and India&#x27;s LRS limit and 2026 TCS rules on education.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/pay-international-student-fees.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The email from the university in Toronto arrives on a Tuesday: the first semester's tuition is due in three weeks, payable in Canadian dollars, with a late fee if it arrives after the deadline. In a flat in Nagpur, the parents start making calls. Which bank? Which rate? What forms? For millions of families, paying fees abroad is the single largest international payment they will ever make, and most do it with very little guidance.</p>

<h2>The scale of the problem</h2>
<p>The United States alone hosted 1,177,766 international students in the 2024-25 academic year, according to the <a href="https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Institute of International Education's Open Doors report</a>. India was the largest source, with 363,019 students, up 10%. Those students and their families contributed nearly $55 billion to the US economy in 2024. Yet the same report found new international enrolments down 17% in a fall 2025 snapshot, a sign that costs, visas and politics are all making families think harder about every rupee.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>363,019</b><span>Indian students in the US, 2024-25</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$250,000</b><span>India's LRS limit per person per year</span></div><div class="stat"><b>2%</b><span>TCS on self-funded education above Rs 10 lakh</span></div></div>

<h2>Your options for paying</h2>
<p>Universities typically accept several methods. The cheapest is not always the most obvious.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Bank wire (SWIFT).</b> The traditional route. Your bank sends funds to the university's account. Expect a sending fee, possible intermediary charges along the way, and an exchange rate set by your bank. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> explains why deductions sometimes appear in transit.</li>
<li><b>Education payment platforms.</b> Many universities partner with providers that let you pay in your home currency to a local account, with the conversion done by the platform. These usually show a locked rate and give the university a clear reference, which reduces misallocated payments.</li>
<li><b>Licensed money transfer providers.</b> Often competitive on rate, but check that the university accepts payments from third parties and that the reference arrives intact.</li>
<li><b>Cards.</b> Convenient for deposits and application fees. For full tuition, card surcharges, low limits and foreign transaction fees often make them the expensive choice.</li>
</ul>

<h2>The exchange rate is where the money goes</h2>
<p>On a tuition bill of 30,000 Canadian dollars, a 2% difference in exchange rate is 600 dollars, more than most transfer fees combined. Always compare the rate you are offered with the mid-market rate on the same day. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> shows how to do that in a minute.</p>
<p>Two practical points:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Pay in the university's currency.</b> If you send rupees and let the receiving bank convert, you lose control of the rate.</li>
<li><b>Consider splitting the conversion</b> over a few weeks if the deadline allows, so a single bad day does not set the price for the whole year. This is a budgeting tactic, not a prediction about where currencies will go.</li>
</ol>
<blockquote class="pull">On a year's tuition, the exchange rate you accept can cost more than every fee on the transfer put together.</blockquote>

<h2>Timelines: build in a buffer</h2>
<p>International transfers usually arrive within one to five business days, but the full process takes longer. Your bank may need to verify documents, compliance teams may ask questions, and the university needs time to match the payment to the student. A sensible rule is to start at least 7 to 10 working days before the deadline, longer around holidays or the start of semester, when everyone pays at once.</p>
<p>Keep the student ID or invoice number exactly as the university requests in the payment reference. A missing reference is the most common reason a payment sits unallocated while late fees accrue.</p>

<h2>Documentation for families in India</h2>
<p>Under the Reserve Bank of India's Liberalised Remittance Scheme, a resident individual can send up to $250,000 per financial year abroad for permitted purposes, including education. This limit is per person and counts all LRS remittances across all banks, so a parent who has also invested abroad that year should check how much room is left. For an education remittance, banks typically ask for:</p>
<ul>
<li>the remitter's PAN;</li>
<li>Form A2, declaring the purpose of the payment;</li>
<li>the admission or offer letter, and the university's fee invoice or demand letter;</li>
<li>any additional bank-specific declarations.</li>
</ul>
<p>The scheme is summarised in plain language by banks and lenders such as <a href="https://www.bajajfinserv.in/liberalised-remittance-scheme-lrs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv</a>, but your remitting bank's checklist is the one that counts.</p>

<h2>TCS on education: the 2026 change</h2>
<p>Tax collected at source (TCS) is an amount the bank collects upfront on certain foreign remittances. From 1 April 2026, the rate on education remittances funded from your own money fell to 2% on amounts above Rs 10 lakh per person per financial year, down from 5%, according to <a href="https://pay.flywire.com/resources/tcs-on-foreign-education-payments-reduced-to-2-from-april-1-2026-what-indian-students-need-to-know" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Flywire's summary of the Finance Act changes</a>. The first Rs 10 lakh carries no TCS. Remittances funded by an education loan from a specified financial institution, such as a bank, are not subject to TCS.</p>
<p>Two points families often miss:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>TCS is not an extra tax.</b> It is credited against your income tax liability and can be refunded when you file your return if no tax is due. It does tie up cash for months, though.</li>
<li><b>The threshold is per PAN.</b> If both parents have income and PANs, how the payment is structured can affect when TCS kicks in. Get advice from a tax professional rather than guessing.</li>
</ul>

<h2>After the fees: living costs</h2>
<p>Tuition is one payment a semester. Rent, groceries, phone bills and transport are monthly. Many families set up a regular transfer to the student's local bank account once it is open. Others pay specific bills, such as rent or a phone plan, directly. Our article on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/">paying bills across borders</a> covers that approach.</p>
<p>Watch for refunds too. If a student defers, withdraws or receives a scholarship after paying, the university may return money in its own currency to the original account, and the conversion back can cost a second spread.</p>
<p>Keep every receipt. Proof of payment is useful for visa renewals, refunds if a student withdraws, and tax filing at home.</p>
<p class="note">This guide is general information for families, not tax, legal or financial advice. LRS and TCS rules are set by the RBI and the Income Tax Department and can change; confirm current requirements with your bank before sending.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/pay-international-student-fees.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Stablecoin Regulation in Asia and the Gulf: HK, Singapore, Japan, UAE</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 29 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>How Hong Kong&#x27;s Stablecoins Ordinance, Singapore&#x27;s MAS framework, Japan&#x27;s yen stablecoin rules and the UAE&#x27;s CBUAE and VARA regimes compare in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">The stablecoin debate in Washington and Brussels gets most of the attention, but some of the most carefully designed rules are being written in Asia and the Gulf. These are financial centres that live on cross-border money, and their regulators have had to decide quickly whether stablecoins are a threat to their currencies, an opportunity for their banks, or both. Their answers differ in revealing ways.</p>

<h2>Hong Kong: strict licences, banks first</h2>
<p>Hong Kong's Stablecoins Ordinance took effect on 1 August 2025. It requires a licence from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for anyone issuing a fiat-referenced stablecoin in Hong Kong, for anyone issuing a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin anywhere, and for anyone actively marketing stablecoins to the Hong Kong public, according to <a href="https://www.davispolk.com/insights/client-update/hong-kongs-licensing-and-regulatory-framework-stablecoins-now-effect" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Davis Polk</a>.</p>
<p>The key rules:</p>
<ul>
  <li>Paid-up capital of at least HK$25 million for non-bank issuers.</li>
  <li>Reserves at least equal to every token in circulation, held in segregated trust arrangements.</li>
  <li>Redemption at par within one business day.</li>
  <li>Only stablecoins from licensed issuers can be offered to retail investors; others are limited to professionals.</li>
</ul>
<p>The HKMA has been deliberately slow. Its first two issuer licences, granted on 10 April 2026, went to HSBC and to Anchorpoint Financial, a joint venture of Standard Chartered's Hong Kong arm, HKT and Animoca Brands, as <a href="https://www.charltonslaw.com/hkma-issues-first-stablecoin-issuer-licences/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charltons</a> reported. The message is clear: Hong Kong wants a small number of well-capitalised issuers with bank-grade controls, not a crowded field.</p>

<h2>Singapore: from framework to full law</h2>
<p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore finalised its single-currency stablecoin framework in August 2023, and on 1 September 2026 it published draft amendments to the Payment Services Act to put it on a full legal footing, with comments due 16 October 2026. According to <a href="https://www.gibsondunn.com/singapore-publishes-draft-legislation-to-implement-its-stablecoin-framework/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gibson Dunn</a>, the draft would:</p>
<ul>
  <li>Create a standalone stablecoin issuance licence, with only licensees allowed to use the label "MAS-regulated stablecoin" and criminal penalties for misuse.</li>
  <li>Require reserves at least equal to par value in segregated trust accounts, with attestation and audit.</li>
  <li>Ban issuers from paying interest on holdings, in line with the US approach.</li>
  <li>Add quarterly stress testing, recovery and wind-down plans, and powers to trace, freeze and burn tokens.</li>
  <li>Open a route to recognise well-regulated foreign stablecoins, and allow multi-jurisdiction issuance case by case.</li>
</ul>
<p>Singapore's distinctive move is the recognition regime. Rather than forcing every global coin to set up locally, it would let MAS accept tokens regulated to a comparable standard elsewhere. That is a pragmatic answer for a hub whose banks settle trade across Asia.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>HK$25M</b><span>minimum capital for Hong Kong stablecoin issuers</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>¥10 trillion</b><span>JPYC's three-year circulation target</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>1 day</b><span>redemption deadline under Hong Kong's ordinance</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Japan: early law, slow start, now a yen coin</h2>
<p>Japan was first among major economies to legislate, revising its rules in June 2023 so that only registered providers under its fund settlement and banking laws can issue or manage stablecoins. For two years little happened. Then in March 2025 SBI's crypto arm began offering USDC as the first major dollar stablecoin approved for Japan, and on 27 October 2025 JPYC launched what it calls the country's first legally recognised yen stablecoin.</p>
<p>JPYC is backed fully by yen deposits and Japanese government bonds, runs on Avalanche, Ethereum and Polygon, and requires users to verify identity with a My Number card. The company is aiming for ¥10 trillion, about $65 billion, in circulation within three years, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/376199/japan-jpyc-launches-yen-stablecoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. That target is ambitious, but a regulated yen token matters for a country with large outbound tourism and a big export sector.</p>

<h2>UAE: two regulators, two jobs</h2>
<p>The UAE's approach is the most layered, because it has a federal central bank and separate financial free zones.</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Central Bank of the UAE (federal).</b> The Payment Token Services Regulation, issued in June 2024 and effective from August 2024, governs dirham-backed and foreign-currency payment tokens. Dirham tokens must be backed one-for-one with dirham assets, audited monthly and redeemable at par. Foreign-currency tokens are recognised but cannot be used to pay for dirham-priced goods and services onshore, according to <a href="https://neolegal.ae/insights/cbuae-payment-token-services-regulation-ptsr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Neo Legal</a>. AE Coin received in-principle approval as a dirham stablecoin in October 2024, and First Abu Dhabi Bank, with ADQ and IHC, announced plans for another in April 2025.</li>
  <li><b>VARA (Dubai, outside the DIFC).</b> Dubai's virtual asset regulator licenses issuers of fiat-referenced virtual assets but does not allow tokens pegged to the dirham, which remain the central bank's territory.</li>
  <li><b>DFSA (DIFC financial centre).</b> In February 2025 the DFSA recognised USDC and EURC as the first approved stablecoins for use by its more than 6,000 registered firms.</li>
</ul>
<p>For someone in Dubai, the practical upshot is that dollar stablecoins are usable for investment, treasury and cross-border transfers through licensed firms, while day-to-day local payments are reserved for dirham tokens under central bank control. That matters for the huge Gulf-to-South-Asia remittance flows we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">our corridor guide</a>.</p>

<h2>Side by side</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Market</th><th>Main law or rule</th><th>Who can issue</th><th>Reserve rule</th><th>Status in 2026</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Hong Kong</td><td>Stablecoins Ordinance (Aug 2025)</td><td>HKMA licensees</td><td>Full backing, one-day redemption</td><td>First two licences in April 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>MAS framework (2023), draft law (Sep 2026)</td><td>MAS licensees; foreign coins via recognition</td><td>Par-value reserves in trust; no interest</td><td>Consultation closes 16 Oct 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Japan</td><td>Payment Services Act amendments (2023)</td><td>Registered providers under Japanese law</td><td>JPYC: yen deposits and JGBs</td><td>USDC via SBI; JPYC live since Oct 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>UAE</td><td>CBUAE PTSR (2024), VARA, DFSA</td><td>Central bank for dirham tokens</td><td>1:1 dirham assets, monthly audits</td><td>Dirham coins approved; USDC, EURC recognised in DIFC</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<blockquote class="pull">Every one of these regulators is protecting its own currency first and welcoming the dollar second.</blockquote>

<h2>What ties them together</h2>
<p>Three patterns stand out. All four demand full reserves and fast redemption, lessons learned from the failures in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">our depeg history</a>. All four put local-currency stablecoins under the tightest control, a defence against what the Bank for International Settlements calls stealth dollarisation. And all four lean on banks, either as issuers or as reserve custodians. Compare that with the more market-driven US model in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our GENIUS Act and MiCA explainer</a>.</p>
<p>The result for users across the region should be fewer but safer coins, and clearer answers to the question that matters most: if something goes wrong, who is accountable?</p>
<p class="note">This is a summary for general readers, not legal advice. Rules in all four markets were still evolving as of August 2026.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Correspondent Banking Explained: Why Sending Money Abroad Costs 6.36%</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Remittance</category><description>Nostro accounts, pre-funding and de-risking explain why sending money abroad still averages 6.49%. What the G20 targets promise and why 2027 looks out of reach.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/correspondent-banking-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A nurse in Dubai sends $200 to her mother in Manila. The app shows a fee, an exchange rate and an estimated arrival time. What it does not show is the chain of banks behind the transfer, each holding money in advance, each running its own checks and each taking a cut. That chain is correspondent banking, and it is the main reason the global average cost of sending $200 was still 6.36% in the World Bank's latest data, for the third quarter of 2025.</p>

<h2>Banks cannot pay each other directly across borders</h2>
<p>Inside a country, banks settle through the central bank. Across borders there is no shared central bank. So banks hold accounts with each other. From the Dubai bank's point of view, the dollars it keeps at a New York bank are its nostro account (our money, held by you). From the New York bank's view, the same balance is a vostro account (your money, held by us).</p>
<p>When the nurse's bank sends a payment, it instructs its correspondent, usually by SWIFT message, to debit its nostro account and pay onward. If the Dubai bank has no direct relationship with the Philippine bank, the payment hops through one or more intermediaries. SWIFT says 86% of payments on its network involve either a direct relationship or a single intermediary. The rest take longer routes.</p>

<h2>Pre-funding: the hidden cost</h2>
<p>Every nostro account has to be stocked with money before payments go through. A bank that serves twenty currency corridors needs balances sitting in twenty places, in currencies it may not otherwise hold, earning little. Estimates of how much money sits idle in these accounts worldwide range widely, from $5 trillion up to $27 trillion, and even industry commentators <a href="https://www.electronicpaymentsinternational.com/comment/trapped-liquidity-debate-about-wrong-number/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispute the numbers</a>. The exact figure matters less than the principle: capital locked in pre-funded accounts has a cost, and customers pay it through fees and exchange-rate margins.</p>

<p>Pre-funding also explains why the cost of a transfer depends so much on the corridor. Routes with heavy two-way traffic, such as US dollars to euros, let banks net payments against each other and keep balances lean. Thin routes, such as a small African currency to a small Asian one, need balances that sit idle for long stretches, so the price per payment is higher.</p>

<h2>Each hop adds friction</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Fees.</b> Intermediaries can deduct charges in transit, which is why a tuition payment sometimes arrives short.</li>
<li><b>Compliance checks.</b> Each bank screens the payment against sanctions lists and its own risk rules. A name that partly matches a listed person can freeze a transfer for days.</li>
<li><b>Cut-off times.</b> Banks run on business hours in their own time zones. A payment that misses the window in New York waits for the next day.</li>
<li><b>FX spreads.</b> The currency conversion usually happens at a rate marked up from the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a>, which is often the biggest hidden fee.</li>
</ul>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>6.36%</b><span>global average cost to send $200, Q3 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>14.55%</b><span>average when sending through a bank</span></div><div class="stat"><b>20%</b><span>drop in active correspondent relationships, 2012-18</span></div></div>

<h2>The numbers on cost</h2>
<p>The World Bank's <a href="https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/rpw_main_report_and_annex_q125_1_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Remittance Prices Worldwide</a> data for the first quarter of 2025 showed banks were the most expensive channel, averaging 14.55% to send $200, against a global average of 6.49% that quarter. Sub-Saharan Africa was the costliest region to receive money at 8.78%, while South Asia was the cheapest at 4.80%. Digital services averaged 4.85%, well below non-digital at 7.16%. Our full breakdown is in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home</a>.</p>

<h2>De-risking: fewer banks, longer routes</h2>
<p>Since the global financial crisis, large banks have been cutting correspondent relationships, especially with smaller banks in countries seen as high risk for money laundering or sanctions. The practice is called de-risking. The BIS's payments committee found that active correspondent relationships fell about 20% between 2012 and 2018, with a 30% drop across the Americas outside North America, according to <a href="https://www.bis.org/publications/new-correspondent-banking-data-decline-continues" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIS data</a>.</p>
<p>The reason is simple economics. A correspondent relationship with a small bank in a small country brings modest revenue and potentially large fines. Big banks decided many such relationships were not worth it. The effect is concentration: fewer banks serve more corridors, routes get longer and smaller economies pay more.</p>
<p>The damage is not abstract. Research published by <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-de-risking-correspondent-banks-international-trade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEPR's VoxEU</a> in 2024 found that firms in emerging Europe whose banks lost correspondent links saw export revenues 57% lower than comparable firms four years later. Smaller and younger firms were hit hardest.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">De-risking moved risk off bank balance sheets and onto small businesses and families.</blockquote>

<h2>The G20 promised to fix this</h2>
<p>In 2020 the G20 endorsed a roadmap to make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, more transparent and more accessible. The headline 2027 targets: an average cost of 1% or less for cross-border payments, no corridor above 3%, 75% of payments credited within an hour and the rest within a business day, plus remittances at 3% or less.</p>
<p>Progress has been slow. The Financial Stability Board's <a href="https://www.fsb.org/2025/10/g20-roadmap-for-cross-border-payments-consolidated-progress-report-for-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 progress report</a> said policy work was largely complete but had not yet produced tangible improvements for end users, and that meeting the 2027 timetable globally was unlikely. Remittance costs had barely moved. According to a summary by The Paypers, only about 35% of payments met the one-hour speed goal, and 18.3% of corridors still cost more than 3%.</p>

<h2>What is actually changing</h2>
<p>Three forces are chipping away at the old model.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Better data.</b> SWIFT's move to ISO 20022 messages carries fuller names and addresses, which should cut false compliance alerts. See our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/">SWIFT in 2026</a>.</li>
<li><b>Linked instant systems.</b> Connecting domestic fast-payment systems, as Singapore and India did, skips the correspondent chain for some corridors.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin settlement.</b> Moving a dollar token on a blockchain removes the need to pre-fund nostro accounts for that leg, and settlement runs at weekends. The trade-off is that local currency still has to be bought and sold at each end, under local rules.</li>
</ol>
<p>For senders, the practical lesson is to look past the advertised fee. Compare the amount the recipient will actually receive with what the same sum would be at the mid-market rate. The gap between those two numbers is the real price of the correspondent chain, whoever ends up collecting it.</p>
<p>None of these replaces correspondent banking outright. The system still reaches places nothing else does, and its compliance role is real. But the cost of the old model is now visible, measured and politically awkward, which is usually the first step toward it changing.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/correspondent-banking-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Gulf Wage Protection System: UAE WPS, Saudi Mudad and Payroll Cards</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>How migrant workers get paid in the Gulf: the UAE&#x27;s June 2026 WPS rules, Saudi Mudad, Qatar&#x27;s system, payroll cards for unbanked workers and remittance timing</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On the last working day of May 2026, payroll clerks at contractors across Dubai and Sharjah faced a deadline that had not existed a month earlier. From 1 June, the UAE's Wage Protection System stopped giving employers a 15-day grace period. Wages for May had to be on the system by the first of June, and anything short of 85 percent of the bill counted as a failure. For the hundreds of thousands of workers whose salary lands on a prepaid card and leaves for Kerala, Kathmandu or Dhaka within hours, that change matters more than any remittance price cut.</p>

<p>This piece explains how the Gulf's wage protection systems actually move money, what changed in 2025 and 2026, how payroll cards fit in for workers without a bank account, and why the timing of a salary sets the rhythm of remittance flows from the region.</p>

<h2>What a wage protection system does</h2>

<p>A wage protection system, or WPS, is an electronic salary channel run by a labour ministry with the central bank. Employers must pay wages through approved banks or exchange houses, and every payment is reported to the ministry as a structured file. The ministry can then see, worker by worker, whether salaries were paid, how much, and when.</p>

<p>The UAE launched its system in 2009, built by the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (MOHRE) with the Central Bank of the UAE. Employers upload a Salary Information File, a fixed-format record of each employee and amount, to a WPS agent. Agents are CBUAE-authorised banks and approved exchange houses, which matters because exchange houses serve workers with no bank account. One payroll software provider, <a href="https://www.zoho.com/en-ae/payroll/academy/payroll-compliance/wps-in-uae.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zoho</a>, puts monthly salary transfers through the system at more than AED 35 billion, a figure we could not confirm with MOHRE.</p>

<p>The point is enforcement. Before WPS, a worker whose salary was late had to complain, often to an employer who also controlled his visa. With WPS the ministry sees the missed payment before the worker files anything.</p>

<h2>The UAE's June 2026 rules</h2>

<p>MOHRE's Ministerial Resolution No. 340 of 2026 took effect on 1 June. According to a client note from <a href="https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2026/06/uae-new-resolution-impacting-payroll-immediate-action-required" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baker McKenzie</a>, it does three things.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Moves the due date.</b> Wages for a month must be transferred through WPS by the first day of the following month. The previous 15-day grace period is gone.</li>
<li><b>Raises the bar.</b> An establishment is compliant only if it transfers at least 85 percent of total wages due, up from 80 percent. An individual worker counts as paid only if he receives at least 85 percent of his salary, after lawful deductions.</li>
<li><b>Sets a fixed escalation ladder.</b> Automated warnings on day 2. Suspension of new work permits on day 5. Fines for repeat delays within six months from day 11. Possible labour disputes for larger employers from day 16, and attachment measures, referral to prosecutors and possible travel bans for responsible individuals from day 21.</li>
</ul>

<p>The rules bite hardest in construction, transport, security, cleaning and recruitment, which the resolution treats as key industries with lower thresholds for escalation. Those are also the sectors with the highest share of low-wage migrant workers.</p>

<p>Coverage has widened too. Since April 2025, employers of five categories of domestic workers, including private tutors and home caregivers, must pay through WPS, <a href="https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/new-salary-rule-uae-mandates-wps-for-paying-domestic-workers-1.500084904" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gulf News reported</a>. Fourteen other categories, among them housekeepers, nannies, cooks and drivers, remain optional. That leaves many of the most isolated workers, the ones living inside their employer's home, outside the mandatory net.</p>

<h2>Saudi Arabia: Mudad, Qiwa and Musaned</h2>

<p>Saudi Arabia's wage protection programme began small, targeting no more than 300 establishments, and was rebuilt in 2020 on the Mudad platform. By the end of 2024 the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development said it covered <a href="https://www.hrsd.gov.sa/en/media-center/news/%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AC-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%84" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 900,000 establishments and more than 8.5 million employees</a>, processing around 300,000 wage files and SAR 35 billion in wages each month, with compliance above 88 percent.</p>

<p>The Saudi design differs from the UAE's in one important way: the employer submits a sealed wage protection file that Mudad cross-checks against social insurance records. If the file is not in within 20 days of its due date, the system alerts inspectors automatically, according to a summary published by <a href="https://www.mrrors.org/2025/10/saudi-arabia-implements-stricter-wage-protection-regulations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MRRORS</a>. Employers get 10 days to justify a delay and workers 3 days to reject the justification.</p>

<p>Two newer layers sit on top. Wage terms in contracts certified on the Qiwa platform can now be enforced through the Ministry of Justice without a separate lawsuit, phased in for new contracts from 6 October 2025, renewed fixed-term contracts from 6 March 2026 and indefinite contracts from 6 August 2026. And from 1 October 2025, households with two or more domestic workers must pay them through approved banks or digital wallets via the Musaned platform.</p>

<h2>Qatar and the rest of the Gulf</h2>

<p>Qatar amended its labour law in 2015 to require salaries to be paid into accounts at Qatari banks, with a compliance deadline of 2 November 2015, as law firm <a href="https://www.squirepattonboggs.com/en/insights/publications/2015/08/amendments-to-qatar-labour-law-and-deadline-to-enrol-into-the-wage-protection-system" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Squire Patton Boggs</a> noted at the time. Within ten weeks, officials told <a href="https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/14/01/2016/WPS-covers-over-60-of-workers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Peninsula</a> that more than 60 percent of workers were covered.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>UAE (WPS)</th><th>Saudi Arabia (Mudad)</th><th>Qatar (WPS)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Started</td><td>2009</td><td>Phased; Mudad version 2020</td><td>November 2015</td></tr>
<tr><td>Run by</td><td>MOHRE with CBUAE</td><td>Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development</td><td>Ministry of Labour with banks</td></tr>
<tr><td>Payment due</td><td>1st of following month (from June 2026)</td><td>File flagged to inspectors 20 days after due date</td><td>Paid into Qatari bank accounts</td></tr>
<tr><td>Compliance test</td><td>85% of wages, 85% per worker</td><td>File checked against social insurance data</td><td>Not stated in our sources</td></tr>
<tr><td>Scale</td><td>AED 35B+ a month (provider estimate)</td><td>8.5M+ employees, 900k+ establishments (end 2024)</td><td>60%+ of workers covered by Jan 2016</td></tr>
<tr><td>Domestic workers</td><td>5 categories mandatory since April 2025</td><td>Musaned digital pay for 2+ workers from Oct 2025</td><td>Not stated in our sources</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Payroll cards: a bank account that is not quite a bank account</h2>

<p>For a worker without a bank account, WPS usually arrives as a prepaid salary card. The employer funds a pool account at a bank or exchange house; each worker gets a chip-and-PIN card loaded on payday. Al Fardan Exchange, which says it launched the first exchange-house WPS card in the UAE in November 2009, describes its current <a href="https://api.alfardan-exchange.webc.in/wps-payroll-service" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payez card</a> as offering free branch withdrawals and balance checks, no point-of-sale charges, and fees at other ATMs.</p>

<p>That fee structure tells you how cards are used. Payday is followed by a walk to the exchange house, a cash withdrawal and, often, a remittance at the same counter. The card is a pipe rather than a place to hold money. It gives the ministry a record and the worker a safer channel than an envelope of cash, but it does not by itself give him savings, credit or a payment history a bank will recognise.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Wage protection fixed when Gulf workers get paid. It has not yet fixed what they can do with the money once it arrives.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: what 85 percent means on the ground</h2>

<p>Take a cleaning contractor in Abu Dhabi with 40 workers, each on AED 2,000 a month. The monthly wage bill is AED 80,000.</p>

<ul>
<li>To count as compliant under Resolution 340, the firm must push at least AED 68,000 (85 percent) through WPS by the 1st.</li>
<li>Each worker must receive at least AED 1,700. A firm that pays 38 workers in full and 2 workers nothing has passed the establishment test (it paid AED 76,000) but failed two individual workers.</li>
<li>If it is late again within six months, the fine is commonly understood to be AED 1,000 per affected worker, capped at AED 20,000. For all 40 workers that would be AED 40,000 in theory but AED 20,000 in practice, plus a downgrade in MOHRE's classification that raises the firm's processing costs.</li>
</ul>

<p>Now the worker's side. Under the old rules, his April salary might have arrived on 14 May and his family in Andhra Pradesh would wait until then for rent and school fees. Under the new rules the money should land on 1 May. A two-week shift sounds small. For a household that runs on monthly transfers, it decides whether a bill is paid on time or late. Our guide to the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">UAE to India money transfer corridor</a> covers what happens after the salary leaves the card.</p>

<h2>Why salary timing drives remittance timing</h2>

<p>Gulf remittances move in pulses. Saudi Arabia's monthly data makes the pattern visible. Expatriate remittances hit a record <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1905372" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAR 16.92 billion in March 2026</a>, up 35 percent from February's SAR 12.55 billion and 9 percent above March 2025, according to central bank data reported by Argaam. March held Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, when salaries and end-of-service payments meet holiday spending at home.</p>

<p>For India the Gulf is still a large source even though it has lost ground. RBI's latest remittance survey found the six GCC states supplied 38 percent of India's inward remittances in 2023-24, with the UAE alone at 19.2 percent, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/advanced-economies-overtake-gulf-nations-in-share-of-remittances-to-india-125032100650_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. Much of that money starts as a WPS payment. When payroll gets more predictable, so does the money arriving in Kerala and Telangana. Our broader look at the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia remittance corridor</a> and the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home in 2026</a> puts that in context; the World Bank's global average for sending $200 was 6.36 percent in Q3 2025.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>1 September 2026:</b> the fourth payday under the UAE's no-grace-period rule. Watch for MOHRE data on work permit suspensions, the first public sign of how many firms are struggling.</li>
<li><b>30 November 2026:</b> the end of the first six-month window since 1 June. Firms with two late months by then fall into the repeat-delay fine band.</li>
<li><b>Saudi Arabia, late 2026:</b> the first full months with Qiwa enforcement covering indefinite contracts (live since 6 August) will show whether workers actually use the Najiz route against non-payment.</li>
<li><b>UAE domestic workers:</b> whether the 14 optional categories, including housekeepers and nannies, are made mandatory. That would bring the most exposed group of migrant workers inside the system.</li>
</ul>

<p>For a related look at how employers pay people across borders, see our guides to global payroll for contractors and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/government-payroll-and-wage-payments/">government payroll and wage payments</a>. And because new salary rails attract new fraud, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> is worth a read for anyone handling a payroll card.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Brazil&#x27;s Pix Hit 80 Billion Payments in 2025. Why Drex Changed Course</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Pix processed nearly 80 billion payments worth R$35 trillion in 2025, while Brazil&#x27;s Drex dropped its blockchain. What the two projects teach about payments.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/brazil-pix-and-drex.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">In São Paulo, the man selling coconut water on the beach has a laminated QR code taped to his cart. So does the dentist, the landlord and the city's parking app. Brazil's Pix went from launch in November 2020 to the default way most Brazilians pay in about four years. In the same period, Brazil's more ambitious digital currency project, Drex, tested blockchain for bank settlement and then dropped it. The contrast is one of the most useful case studies in payments.</p>

<h2>Pix by the numbers</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>~80B</b><span>Pix transactions in 2025, up 25.7% on 2024</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>R$35T+</b><span>value moved through Pix in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>165M</b><span>individuals registered with Pix, February 2025</span></div>
</div>
<p>The Banco Central do Brasil's second Pix management report, published in August 2026 and covered by <a href="https://www.diariodepernambuco.com.br/economia/2026/08/11720778-volume-de-transacoes-via-pix-aumentou-257-em-2025-ante-2024-mostra-bc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Diario de Pernambuco</a>, put 2025 volume at nearly 80 billion transactions worth more than R$35 trillion, with value up 33.8% on the year. That follows 9.4 billion in 2021, 24 billion in 2022, 42 billion in 2023 and 63.4 billion in 2024, according to central bank data compiled by <a href="https://paymentscmi.com/insights/pix-in-brazil-latest-statistics-central-bank/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payments CMI</a>.</p>
<p>The pace has not slowed. In the first five months of 2026, Pix handled 36.3 billion transactions worth R$16 trillion, averaging close to 3,000 transactions a second, Sou Brasília reported. On a single day in June 2025, Pix processed nearly 280 million payments.</p>

<h2>From transfers to shopping</h2>
<p>The more telling statistic is who uses Pix for what. In 2020, person-to-person transfers made up 85% of transactions. By 2025, 43% of all Pix transactions went from individuals to businesses, according to the central bank report. Pix stopped being a way to split dinner bills and became the way Brazilians pay shops.</p>
<p>By February 2025, 165 million individuals and 19.2 million businesses were registered. For comparison, Brazil had about 163 million adults in 2024. Pix effectively reached everyone with a phone and a bank account, including millions who never got a credit card.</p>

<h2>Why Pix worked</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>The central bank built and ran it.</b> Large institutions were required to join, so coverage was universal from day one.</li>
  <li><b>It was free for individuals.</b> No fee for a person sending money removed the main reason to stick with cash.</li>
  <li><b>Keys instead of account numbers.</b> A phone number, email or tax ID is enough to receive money.</li>
  <li><b>It keeps adding features.</b> Contactless Pix through phone wallets arrived in February 2025, and Pix Automático, for recurring bills authorised by the customer, launched in June 2025. That last one goes straight at direct debit and card subscriptions.</li>
</ul>
<p>The lesson for other countries is that the rail itself was not novel. Instant payments already existed elsewhere. What was new was a public operator with the authority to make everyone join and the willingness to make it free. India's UPI followed a similar logic, which we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI's global expansion</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Brazil did not need a new kind of money. It needed a free, universal way to move the money it already had.</blockquote>

<h2>Bills are next</h2>
<p>Pix Automático deserves more attention than it gets outside Brazil. Before it, a gym, a school or a streaming service that wanted recurring payments had two main options: a credit card on file or a bank direct debit, which typically required the customer and the business to bank at the same institution. Millions of Brazilians without credit cards were left paying monthly bills by hand, often with a boleto, a printed or digital payment slip.</p>
<p>With Pix Automático, the customer authorises a business once inside their own banking app, sets a limit if they want, and the charge arrives each month without further work. For a family in Recife paying school fees, an internet bill and a phone plan, that is three fewer things to remember. For the businesses, it means fewer late payments and lower costs than card acceptance. We think recurring bills are where instant rails can make the most difference to ordinary household budgets, a theme we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/">the future of bill payments</a>.</p>

<h2>Drex: the ambitious sibling</h2>
<p>Drex began as Brazil's digital real project, aimed mostly at wholesale use. The idea was to put tokenised bank deposits, digital government bonds and smart contracts on a shared platform, so that buying a car, registering a property or getting rural credit could be settled automatically. The participant list included Banco do Brasil, Itaú, Bradesco, Santander, Nubank, cooperatives, Visa, Mastercard and the big cloud providers.</p>
<p>The platform was built on Hyperledger Besu, an Ethereum-compatible ledger. The trouble was privacy. Banks cannot put customer balances on a shared ledger without strong confidentiality, and the privacy tools tested proved immature. Phase two, with 16 consortia trying different use cases, ran late, <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/brazils-drex-cbdc-project-pivots-away-from-blockchain-tokenization/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ledger Insights</a> reported.</p>
<p>On 4 November 2025, the central bank told participants it would shut down the blockchain infrastructure, judging it insufficiently secure by its standards and too costly, <a href="https://forbes.com.br/escolhas-do-editor/2025/11/banco-central-abandona-o-blockchain-do-drex-o-projeto-do-real-digital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forbes Brasil</a> reported. The next phase is narrower: a lien reconciliation system that lets investors pledge stocks and bonds as loan collateral, integrated with Pix and without blockchain. Some distributed ledger research continues in the background.</p>

<h2>What Drex's retreat really means</h2>
<p>It is tempting to call Drex a failure. We would call it a correction. The central bank started with a technology and went looking for problems. Now it is starting with a problem, collateral that is hard to use, and picking whatever tool solves it. That is how Pix was built too.</p>
<p>There is also a market twist. The Forbes Brasil report noted that around 90% of digital currencies circulating in Brazil are stablecoins. The private sector is tokenising on its own, which reduces the case for the central bank to build a parallel platform.</p>

<h2>What other countries can learn</h2>
<ol>
  <li>A public instant rail with mandatory participation and free transfers for individuals can change payment habits within a few years.</li>
  <li>Adding features to an existing rail, such as recurring bills and contactless pay, can beat building a new form of money.</li>
  <li>Privacy remains the hardest unsolved problem for shared ledgers holding bank balances.</li>
</ol>
<p>For how other countries are approaching central bank digital money, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">our 2026 CBDC tracker</a>, and for the case for linking rails like Pix internationally, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">Project Nexus</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/brazil-pix-and-drex.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>e-RUPI Explained: How NPCI&#x27;s Digital Vouchers Work and Who Uses Them</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>e-RUPI is NPCI&#x27;s prepaid digital voucher sent by SMS or QR. How it works, who issues it, health, welfare and corporate uses, and what NPCI&#x27;s data shows.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupi-digital-vouchers.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At a small diagnostic centre in Ludhiana, a receptionist asks a patient for the code on her phone rather than a card. The patient has no bank app and no UPI handle. What she has is an SMS sent on behalf of her husband's employer, carrying a voucher for a health check that has already been paid for. The receptionist scans or enters it, the patient confirms with a code, and the centre's bank is credited. That is e-RUPI, India's prepaid digital voucher, and it is one of the least understood products in the country's payments stack.</p>

<p>It is also one of the least used. That gap, between a clever design and modest adoption, is the most interesting thing about it.</p>

<h2>What e-RUPI actually is</h2>

<p>According to <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/e-rupi/product-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPCI's product description</a>, e-RUPI is a one-time, contactless voucher that a government body or organisation sends to a beneficiary by SMS or QR code, for a specific purpose. The amount is preloaded. The beneficiary needs no card, no payment app and no internet banking to redeem it at a participating merchant. NPCI built it with the Department of Financial Services, the National Health Authority, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and partner banks.</p>

<p>Three features define it:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Prepaid.</b> The sponsor pays first. The voucher is a claim on money already set aside, not a credit line.</li>
<li><b>Purpose-specific.</b> The sponsor decides what it can be spent on and where. A vaccination voucher works at a vaccination centre, not a grocery store.</li>
<li><b>Person-specific.</b> It is issued to an identified mobile number, and redemption is confirmed by the holder.</li>
</ul>

<p>This makes e-RUPI an early, bank-led version of what Singapore later formalised as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/">purpose-bound money</a>: money with conditions attached, which becomes ordinary money once it reaches the merchant.</p>

<h2>How a voucher moves from sponsor to merchant</h2>

<ol>
<li><b>Sponsor requests vouchers.</b> A ministry, state department, hospital programme or company approaches a participating bank with a list of beneficiaries, amounts and purpose.</li>
<li><b>Bank issues.</b> The issuing bank debits the sponsor and creates vouchers on NPCI's platform, tied to each beneficiary's mobile number.</li>
<li><b>Beneficiary receives.</b> The voucher arrives as an SMS string or a QR code.</li>
<li><b>Redemption.</b> The beneficiary presents it at a merchant onboarded by an acquiring bank. The merchant validates it and the beneficiary confirms.</li>
<li><b>Settlement.</b> The acquiring bank credits the merchant, and the sponsor gets a record of exactly which voucher was spent, where.</li>
</ol>

<p>The sponsor's view is the selling point. A department or employer knows that the money funded the specific service it was meant for, not a general cash balance.</p>

<h2>What NPCI's own numbers show</h2>

<p>NPCI publishes a short <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/e-rupi/product-statistics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">product statistics table</a> for e-RUPI listing vouchers created and redeemed by issuing bank. It gives no date range and no rupee values, so it should be read as an indication rather than a time series.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Issuing bank</th><th>Vouchers created</th><th>Vouchers redeemed</th><th>Redeemed as % of created</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Indian Bank</td><td>2,14,864</td><td>6,414</td><td>3.0%</td></tr>
<tr><td>State Bank of India</td><td>72,669</td><td>36,199</td><td>49.8%</td></tr>
<tr><td>ICICI Bank</td><td>2,468</td><td>977</td><td>39.6%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bank of Maharashtra</td><td>2,055</td><td>259</td><td>12.6%</td></tr>
<tr><td>HDFC Bank</td><td>1,292</td><td>4</td><td>0.3%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bank of Baroda</td><td>1,044</td><td>1,183</td><td>113%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total</td><td>2,94,392</td><td>45,036</td><td>15.3%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Three observations. First, scale: the entire table adds up to under three lakh vouchers. India's <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> now handles around 800 million payments a day, so this whole published count equals roughly 0.04% of a single UPI day. Second, concentration: one bank accounts for 73% of vouchers created. Third, redemption: by count, only about 15% of vouchers appear as redeemed. Bank of Baroda showing more redemptions than creations suggests the two columns may cover different windows, which is another reason not to over-read the ratio.</p>

<p>Even so, the direction is clear. Issuing vouchers has been easier than getting them spent.</p>

<h2>Where e-RUPI fits: health, welfare, corporate</h2>

<p><b>Health.</b> The National Health Authority's involvement is not incidental. Health services are the cleanest use: a defined service, a defined provider list, a defined price. Vaccinations, diagnostics, maternal care packages and medicines at empanelled outlets fit the voucher model well.</p>

<p><b>Welfare.</b> For government, e-RUPI sits alongside cash DBT, which has moved about ₹53.8 lakh crore across 320 schemes according to the <a href="https://dbtbharat.gov.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DBT Bharat portal</a>. Almost all of that is unrestricted money into bank accounts. e-RUPI is the option for the minority of schemes where the state wants to pay for a service rather than give income: fertiliser, school supplies, nutrition, skills training. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">Direct Benefit Transfer</a> explains why most schemes still choose cash.</p>

<p><b>Corporate.</b> Employers and CSR programmes can use vouchers for meals, health checks or wellness benefits, with an audit trail that a cash allowance lacks. For multinational employers this sits within a wider question of delivering benefits across borders.</p>

<h2>e-RUPI against the alternatives</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Instrument</th><th>Who controls spending</th><th>Needs bank app or card?</th><th>Rules</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Cash DBT</td><td>Recipient</td><td>No, but needs an Aadhaar-seeded account</td><td>Scheme guidelines; PFMS</td></tr>
<tr><td>UPI payment</td><td>Recipient</td><td>Yes, UPI app linked to an account</td><td>NPCI UPI rules</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gift PPI (card or wallet)</td><td>Issuer's network</td><td>Card or wallet</td><td>RBI PPI directions: max ₹10,000, not reloadable</td></tr>
<tr><td>e-RUPI voucher</td><td>Sponsor: purpose and merchant</td><td>No, SMS or QR is enough</td><td>NPCI product rules with partner banks</td></tr>
<tr><td>Purpose-bound money</td><td>Coded conditions</td><td>Digital wallet</td><td>Protocol tested by MAS in Singapore</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The gift PPI limits come from the RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=12156" target="_blank" rel="noopener">master direction on prepaid payment instruments</a>, which also allows banks to issue full-KYC PPIs of up to ₹2,00,000 to government departments for their own expenses. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi/">prepaid payment instruments</a> covers those rules in detail.</p>

<h2>Worked example: a CSR eye-care drive</h2>

<p>Suppose a company's CSR arm in Punjab funds eye examinations for 5,000 farm workers at ₹800 each, a budget of ₹40 lakh.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>As cash to each worker:</b> ₹40 lakh leaves the company in one batch. The company cannot show how many examinations happened. For CSR reporting, that is a problem.</li>
<li><b>As a contract with one hospital:</b> the hospital is paid ₹40 lakh in advance or in tranches, and the company relies on the hospital's patient count.</li>
<li><b>As e-RUPI:</b> 5,000 vouchers are issued through the company's bank, redeemable at, say, ten empanelled clinics. The company pays only for vouchers that are redeemed, and sees each one.</li>
</ul>

<p>Now apply the redemption problem. If 50% of vouchers are used, close to SBI's ratio in NPCI's table, 2,500 workers are examined and ₹20 lakh is spent, with the unspent value returning to the sponsor under the bank's arrangements. If redemption is 15%, the aggregate figure in NPCI's table, only 750 workers are seen. The money is not lost, but the programme has failed. The fix is rarely technical: it is clinic locations near where people work, opening hours that fit harvest season, and a reminder SMS before expiry.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A voucher nobody redeems is perfectly targeted and completely useless.</blockquote>

<h2>When a voucher beats cash, and when it does not</h2>

<p>The strongest argument against vouchers comes from the government's own data on cash transfers. PM-KISAN pays ₹6,000 a year to farm families with no restriction at all. A NITI Aayog assessment cited in a <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/mar/doc2026319829701.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PIB backgrounder from March 2026</a> found that over 92% of beneficiaries used the money for inputs such as seeds, fertilisers and pesticides. If farmers already spend the money on inputs, converting PM-KISAN into an input-only voucher would add administrative cost, require an approved dealer network and change very little about how the money is used. Economists call this fungibility: a restriction only bites when the voucher is larger than what the household would have spent on that item anyway.</p>

<p>Vouchers make more sense in three situations. When the service is lumpy and easy to postpone, such as a cataract operation or a diagnostic test. When the sponsor is paying a provider rather than supporting income, such as a training course. And when the sponsor needs proof of delivery for an audit or a donor. Those are real but narrow categories, which is one reason e-RUPI's volumes look small next to cash DBT. It is not failing at the job cash does. It is built for a different and smaller job.</p>

<h2>Why adoption has been slow</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Merchant acceptance.</b> Every merchant has to be onboarded by an acquiring bank that supports e-RUPI. UPI's QR codes are everywhere; e-RUPI acceptance is not.</li>
<li><b>Sponsor effort.</b> A cash DBT needs one payment file. A voucher scheme needs a merchant list, validity rules and a redemption plan.</li>
<li><b>Bank dependence.</b> The product lives inside partner banks rather than in apps people already use, so distribution depends on each bank's priorities, which helps explain the concentration in NPCI's figures.</li>
<li><b>Fraud surface.</b> Anything delivered by SMS invites imitation. Recipients should treat unexpected voucher messages with suspicion; our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> covers the common patterns.</li>
</ul>

<p>The deeper issue is that India's welfare system has largely chosen income over vouchers. The World Bank's <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/digital-development/cash-vs-digital-how-do-digital-government-person-payments-ease-lives-recipients" target="_blank" rel="noopener">G2Px research</a> finds the practical value of digital transfers depends heavily on nearby cash-out and acceptance points, and the same logic applies to vouchers: the narrower the acceptance network, the more the instrument depends on place.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Union Budget 2027-28, expected 1 February 2027.</b> Any move to deliver health, nutrition or fertiliser support as vouchers rather than cash would be the largest test e-RUPI could get.</li>
<li><b>NPCI's statistics page.</b> A dated, value-based monthly series would make it possible to judge adoption properly; today's table cannot.</li>
<li><b>Convergence with the e-rupee.</b> Purpose-bound features tested in the RBI's retail CBDC pilot overlap heavily with e-RUPI. Watch whether the two are merged, kept separate, or one quietly replaces the other.</li>
<li><b>Singapore FinTech Festival, November 2026,</b> where MAS typically updates its purpose-bound money work, a useful benchmark for India's design choices.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains a payment product and public schemes. It is not financial, tax or legal advice. Check with the issuing bank or scheme authority for current e-RUPI terms.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupi-digital-vouchers.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Corporate Expense Management in 2026: Cards, Controls and Costs</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/corporate-expense-management-cards/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/corporate-expense-management-cards/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>Corporate cards and spend platforms in 2026: $1.8T Visa commercial volume, a $60B Ramp, the Brex deal, expense fraud data and the controls that work.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/corporate-expense-management-cards.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The finance head of a knitwear exporter in Tiruppur has a ritual every time the merchandising team returns from a European trade fair. Six people come back with a month's worth of receipts in three currencies, a few lost hotel folios, and taxi bills written in German. Reconciling it all against the company's bank statements takes her team most of a week. The money spent is not large. The cost of finding out what it was spent on is.</p>

<p>That gap, between the cost of spending and the cost of accounting for spending, is what the corporate expense industry sells against. In 2026 it has become one of the most heavily funded corners of fintech, with one start-up valued at $60 billion and another bought by a top US card issuer. This piece looks at what the market actually is, what the numbers say about cost and fraud, and which controls work.</p>

<h2>A market built on business travel and card rails</h2>

<p>Start with the spend itself. Global business travel spending reached $1.59 trillion in 2025, up 8.4%, and the Global Business Travel Association forecasts $1.71 trillion in 2026, with the total passing $2 trillion by 2030, according to <a href="https://www.hotelmanagement.net/data-trends/gbta-global-business-travel-spend-reach-171t-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hotel Management's report on the GBTA index</a>. The US ($423 billion) and China ($403.7 billion) together account for nearly half.</p>

<p>Much of that flows over card rails. Visa reported $1.8 trillion in commercial payments volume for fiscal 2025, up 7% in constant dollars, while revenue from its commercial and money movement business grew 14%, according to a <a href="https://www.medianama.com/2025/11/223-visa-fy2025-earnings-ai-crypto-growth-revenue-hits-40b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MediaNama summary of the company's results</a>. Cross-border volume, which covers much of business travel, grew 13%. Faster revenue growth than volume growth tells you where the margin is: in the services wrapped around the card, not the swipe itself.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$1.71T</b><span>global business travel spend forecast, 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.8T</b><span>Visa commercial payments volume, FY2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>13%</b><span>of occupational fraud cases are expense schemes</span></div></div>

<h2>The spend-management boom, in two deals</h2>

<p>Two transactions this year frame the market. In January, Capital One agreed to buy Brex, which combines corporate cards, spend software and business banking, for $5.15 billion in a cash and stock deal, according to <a href="https://coverager.com/capital-one-to-acquire-brex-for-5-15-billion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coverager</a>. Brex had been valued at $12.3 billion in a private round about four years earlier. The deal was expected to close in mid-2026, subject to approvals.</p>

<p>In October, Bloomberg reported that Ramp had raised about $1.85 billion at a $60 billion valuation, up from $44 billion in June, as covered by <a href="https://www.pymnts.com/?p=4299443" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PYMNTS</a>. Ramp's annualised revenue topped $1.5 billion in June, and its customer base reached 70,000 businesses, up from 50,000 at the start of the year.</p>

<p>Our read: the two deals point in the same direction from opposite ends. A bank paid a large discount to a peak private valuation to buy software and customers it could not build quickly. A software-first company won a premium valuation by turning card interchange into a platform for bill payments, procurement and, increasingly, automated approvals. The card is becoming the cheap part. The software that decides whether a card should work for a given purchase is the expensive part.</p>

<p>The next step is already visible. Spend platforms are adding software agents that read a purchase request, check it against policy and budget, and issue a card or approve a bill without a human in the loop for routine cases. That moves the finance team from approving individual transactions to writing the rules the agents follow, and auditing the exceptions. It also raises a new governance question: who is accountable when an automated approval goes wrong? Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/">agentic payments and AI agents</a> looks at how card networks are building rails for this. For a mid-sized company, the practical test is simple. If a platform cannot show exactly which rule approved a given purchase, and who set that rule, it is not ready to be trusted with the budget.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Approach</th><th>How it works</th><th>Strength</th><th>Weakness</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Reimbursement</td><td>Employee pays, files a claim, gets repaid</td><td>No card programme needed</td><td>Slow, error-prone, employee funds the company</td></tr>
<tr><td>Bank corporate card</td><td>Physical card with statement-based reconciliation</td><td>Credit line, wide acceptance</td><td>Receipts and coding still manual</td></tr>
<tr><td>Spend-management platform</td><td>Cards plus software for limits, receipts and approvals</td><td>Controls set before purchase; real-time data</td><td>Platform dependence; card often single currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Virtual and single-use cards</td><td>Card number issued per supplier or purchase</td><td>Tight merchant and amount limits</td><td>Not usable for most in-person travel spend</td></tr>
<tr><td>Multi-currency card</td><td>Holds balances in several currencies</td><td>Lower FX cost on repeat foreign spend</td><td>Requires funding balances in advance</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>The cost nobody books: processing the claim</h2>

<p>The most cited benchmark on the cost of expense reports is old, but nothing better has replaced it. A <a href="https://gbta.org/how-much-do-expense-reports-really-cost-a-company/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GBTA Foundation study</a> from 2015 found that a single expense report cost $58 to process and took 20 minutes. Nineteen percent contained errors or missing information, and fixing each one cost another $52 and 18 minutes. Wage inflation since then means the real figure today is almost certainly higher.</p>

<h3>Worked example: 400 travelling staff</h3>

<p>Take a mid-sized company with 400 employees who each file two expense reports a month. That is 9,600 reports a year.</p>

<ul>
<li>Base processing at $58 each: <b>$556,800</b>.</li>
<li>Error correction on 19% of reports, or 1,824 reports at $52: <b>$94,848</b>.</li>
<li>Total: roughly <b>$651,600 a year</b>, or about $68 per report, before counting any fraud.</li>
</ul>

<p>Now suppose a card-led system captures receipts at the point of purchase and codes most transactions automatically, and that this halves both the processing cost and the error rate. Those are assumptions, not measured results, but they are the kind vendors claim. Annual cost would fall to about $278,400 for processing and $47,400 for corrections on 912 flawed reports, or roughly $325,800. The saving of around $325,000 is the real business case for spend software, and it is larger than the interchange rebates most mid-sized firms earn on their cards. Companies should test any vendor claim against their own report volumes and error data.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The card is becoming the cheap part. The software that decides whether a card should work is the expensive part.</blockquote>

<h2>Fraud: small amounts, long lives</h2>

<p>Expense fraud rarely makes headlines because individual losses are modest. It is common, though. In the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners' 2024 study of nearly 2,000 cases, expense reimbursement schemes made up 13% of all occupational fraud cases, the third most common type after non-cash theft and billing schemes, according to a <a href="https://www.caseiq.com/resources/what-is-expense-reimbursement-fraud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CaseIQ summary of the ACFE report</a>. These schemes lasted around 18 months on average before detection, among the longest of any category.</p>

<p>The four classic patterns are mischaracterised expenses (a family dinner claimed as a client meal), overstated amounts (an altered receipt), fictitious expenses (a receipt that never existed) and multiple claims for the same cost. Corporate cards close off some of these, because the transaction data comes from the network rather than the employee. They do nothing about mischaracterisation, which is a judgment about purpose. And generative AI now produces convincing fake receipts in seconds, which shifts the defence from inspecting documents to matching them against card and merchant data. Our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/ai-fraud-in-payments/">AI fraud in payments</a> looks at that arms race in more detail.</p>

<h2>Controls that actually work</h2>

<p>The shift from reimbursement to cards changes when controls are applied. In a reimbursement world, policy is enforced after the money is spent, by a reviewer reading a claim. With programmable cards, policy can be enforced before the purchase is approved. In practice, the controls that do the most work are:</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Merchant category limits.</b> A travel card that cannot be used at jewellers or electronics stores removes a whole class of misuse.</li>
<li><b>Per-trip or per-project budgets.</b> A card that expires when the trip ends, or carries a limit equal to the approved budget, limits exposure.</li>
<li><b>Receipt capture at the point of sale.</b> Asking for the receipt within hours, not weeks, cuts both errors and the scope for fabrication.</li>
<li><b>Automated matching.</b> Comparing card data, receipt data and travel bookings flags duplicates and mismatched dates without a human reading every line.</li>
<li><b>Random audit of approved claims.</b> The 18-month detection window suggests most firms review too little after approval.</li>
</ol>

<h2>The multi-currency and India angle</h2>

<p>For companies whose staff travel abroad, currency conversion is often the largest hidden cost on the card bill. A single-currency card converts every foreign transaction, usually with a markup over the wholesale rate. As an illustration, if a card adds a 2% markup, the Tiruppur team's EUR 3,000 a month in trade-fair spending costs an extra EUR 60 a month, or EUR 720 a year, before any bank charges. A card that holds euro balances, funded at a better rate in advance, can reduce that. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards/">multi-currency travel cards and crypto cards</a> covers the consumer side of the same trade-off.</p>

<p>India's card market is large and still growing: credit card spending reached a record Rs 21.16 lakh crore in 2024-25, up about 15%, with 109.8 million cards in use by March 2025, according to RBI data reported by <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/amp/story/banking/credit-card-spends-in-fy25-reach-record-high-of-rs-2116-lakh-crore" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money</a>. The RBI does not publish a separate figure for corporate cards, which is itself telling. Much of Indian business spending still runs through owners' personal cards, cash advances and reimbursement, which is exactly the setting where expense software has the most to fix.</p>

<p>The next frontier is cards linked to stablecoin balances. Visa says it has 130 stablecoin-linked card programmes in 40 countries, with spending quadrupling year on year. For businesses holding <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoins for payments</a>, a card that spends those balances directly could remove a conversion step. See our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">how crypto cards work</a> for the mechanics.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Late October 2026:</b> Visa's fiscal 2026 results, the clearest read on whether commercial volume growth accelerates from 7%.</li>
<li><b>Through late 2026:</b> integration of Brex into Capital One after the deal expected to close in mid-2026, and whether the combined company competes on price with software-first rivals.</li>
<li><b>Following the October 2026 round:</b> how Ramp deploys $1.85 billion in new capital, particularly in AI-driven approvals and international expansion beyond the US.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027:</b> the latest date for the US GENIUS Act stablecoin framework to take effect, which will shape how quickly stablecoin-linked corporate cards spread.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/corporate-expense-management-cards.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Americans Pay Their Bills: $5 Trillion a Year, Late Fees, Arrears</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-americans-pay-bills/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-americans-pay-bills/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Bill Payments</category><description>US households pay $5.03 trillion a year in bills, about 47% of income. What doxo, LendingTree and utility arrears data say about late payments and autopay.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-americans-pay-bills.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A teacher in Ohio sits down on the first of the month with a mug of coffee and a list: mortgage, car loan, electricity, gas, water, phone, internet, insurance, two streaming services and a gym she keeps meaning to cancel. Some pay themselves, some need a login, one still arrives on paper. Multiply that small monthly ritual by about 130 million households and you get one of the largest and least glamorous payment markets in the world.</p>

<h2>The size of the bill pay economy</h2>
<p>Bill pay network doxo estimates that US households will spend $5.03 trillion on household bills in 2026. The typical household pays $3,289 a month across all its bills, or $39,468 a year, roughly 47% of the median household income of $84,583, according to <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260219576403/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doxo's 2026 report</a>. The 13 most essential bills alone come to $2,083 a month, about 30% of income.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$5.03T</b><span>US household bills per year, 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$3,289</b><span>typical household bills per month</span></div><div class="stat"><b>47%</b><span>of median household income</span></div></div>
<p>Housing dominates. Mortgage payments make up a $1.08 trillion market and rent $740 billion, with typical monthly payments of $1,769 and $1,453. Auto loans follow at $484 billion, with electricity the largest utility at $228 billion a year and a typical bill of $125 a month.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Bill</th><th>US market size, 2026</th><th>Typical monthly payment</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Mortgage</td><td>$1.08 trillion</td><td>$1,769</td></tr><tr><td>Rent</td><td>$740 billion</td><td>$1,453</td></tr><tr><td>Auto loan</td><td>$484 billion</td><td>$480</td></tr><tr><td>Electric</td><td>$228 billion</td><td>$125</td></tr></tbody></table>

<h2>Paying bills costs money too</h2>
<p>Every bill has a hidden layer: convenience fees for paying by card, charges for paper statements, expedited payment fees when the deadline sneaks up, and late fees when it passes. doxo has separately estimated those hidden costs at $156 billion a year, or about $1,222 per household. That is money spent not on electricity or housing, but on the act of paying for them.</p>
<p>Part of the problem is fragmentation. doxo's own network spans more than 120,000 billers across 45 service categories. Each utility, insurer and lender sets its own portal, due date and payment rules, which is why the first-of-the-month list feels so long. We looked at what a less fragmented system could look like in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/">the future of bill payments</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A household that pays on time still pays a tax on complexity, in fees, logins and attention.</blockquote>

<h2>Late payments are common, and rising</h2>
<p>A LendingTree survey published in December 2025 found that 48% of Americans had paid at least one bill late in the previous year, as reported by <a href="https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2025/12/09/more-americans-are-paying-their-bills-late-survey-finds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gray Media stations</a>. Among those who paid late, 46% said they simply did not have the money. Thirty percent of all respondents said they felt less able to afford their monthly bills than a year earlier.</p>
<p>The consequences of a late payment depend on the bill. A late credit card or loan payment can be reported to credit bureaus once it is 30 days past due, and a late fee usually applies sooner. Utilities typically add a penalty, then send notices, and eventually move toward disconnection. Rent can trigger a fee within days and, if it continues, eviction proceedings. The same missed date carries very different risks depending on who is waiting for the money.</p>
<p>Late payments are not always about money, though. Many are about timing. Paychecks arrive every two weeks, bills arrive on fixed dates, and the two rarely line up. A household that is solvent over a month can still be short on the 3rd.</p>

<h2>Utility arrears: where the strain shows</h2>
<p>Utilities are often the bill people let slip first, because the consequence is slower than a missed rent payment. That makes them a sensitive indicator of stress. A report by The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers, covered by <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/power-shutoffs-energy-bill-debt-us-households" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBS News</a> in November 2025, found nearly one in 20 households had fallen behind or gone into collections on utility bills as of June 2025, rising to one in 12 in parts of the South and Appalachia. The average overdue balance rose 32% in three years, from $597 to $789.</p>
<p>The National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimated that 3.5 million households had their power shut off at some point in 2024, and expected that to rise to about 4 million in 2025. In New York, Con Edison disconnected almost 168,000 customers in 2025, more than five times the previous year's number.</p>

<h2>Autopay: helpful, with caveats</h2>
<p>Autopay is the most common advice for avoiding late fees, and for fixed bills like a car loan it works well. It has limits:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Variable bills</b> such as electricity can spike in a heatwave and pull more from an account than expected, triggering overdraft fees.</li>
<li><b>Timing mismatches</b> remain. Autopay on the 1st does not help if pay lands on the 5th.</li>
<li><b>Card-funded autopay</b> can carry a convenience fee or move the debt to a credit card with a high interest rate.</li>
</ul>
<p>A practical middle ground: autopay fixed bills, set alerts for variable ones, and ask billers whether they will move due dates closer to payday. Many will.</p>

<h2>Paying bills for someone else</h2>
<p>A growing share of bill payments come from someone other than the account holder: adult children paying a parent's utility bill, or relatives abroad covering costs back home. In the US, that usually means logging into someone else's account or sending them money first. Elsewhere, cross-border bill payment is becoming a category of its own, which we explore in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bills-are-the-real-remittance/">bills are the real remittance</a> and in our explainer on India's <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect</a> network.</p>

<h2>What would actually help households</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Flexible due dates</b> aligned with pay cycles.</li>
<li><b>Real-time payments</b> that let a household pay on the due date without paying for expedited service. FedNow and RTP make this possible, as we describe in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fednow-rtp-us-instant-payments/">our guide to US instant payments</a>.</li>
<li><b>Fewer portals and clearer fees,</b> so the cost of paying is visible before you pay it.</li>
</ul>
<p>Bills are boring until they are not. For nearly half of American households, at least one of them was a problem last year, and the system that collects them has barely changed in a generation.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/how-americans-pay-bills.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Tokenised Deposits Explained: JPMorgan, Citi, HSBC and Regulators</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/tokenised-deposits-banks/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/tokenised-deposits-banks/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>How tokenised bank deposits work, what JPMorgan Kinexys, Citi Token Services and HSBC run, how volumes compare with stablecoins, and what regulators say.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/tokenised-deposits-banks.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In September 2025 Ant International's treasury team moved US dollars from Hong Kong to Singapore through HSBC, and the transfer settled as a token on the bank's own ledger, on a service built for instant settlement around the clock. No stablecoin was involved, no exchange and no crypto wallet. The dollars were HSBC deposits throughout, simply represented in a form that could move around the clock. It was the first cross-border payment on HSBC's Tokenised Deposit Service, and a small example of what the largest banks think the on-chain dollar should look like.</p>

<h2>What a tokenised deposit is, and is not</h2>
<p>A tokenised deposit is an ordinary commercial bank deposit recorded as a token on a distributed ledger. The holder has exactly the same claim as any other depositor: an unsecured claim on the bank, covered by the bank's capital, liquidity rules and deposit insurance where it applies. The bank can lend against it, as it does with any deposit. The token changes how the money moves, not what it is.</p>
<p>A stablecoin is a different instrument. The issuer, usually not a bank, holds a separate pool of reserves in cash and short-term government debt, and the token is a claim on that pool. The issuer may not lend the reserves out. In the US, the GENIUS Act makes that segregation a legal requirement for payment stablecoins.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th></th><th>Tokenised deposit</th><th>Fiat-backed stablecoin</th><th>Wholesale CBDC</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Issuer</td><td>Commercial bank</td><td>Licensed issuer, often non-bank</td><td>Central bank</td></tr>
<tr><td>Holder's claim</td><td>Deposit liability of the bank</td><td>Claim on segregated reserves</td><td>Central bank liability</td></tr>
<tr><td>Can issuer lend against it?</td><td>Yes, like any deposit</td><td>No</td><td>Not applicable</td></tr>
<tr><td>Who can hold it</td><td>Bank's own KYC'd clients, typically institutions</td><td>Anyone with a compatible wallet, subject to rules</td><td>Banks and eligible institutions</td></tr>
<tr><td>Main live examples</td><td>JPMorgan Kinexys, Citi Token Services, HSBC TDS</td><td>USDT, USDC</td><td>Pilots such as mBridge</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>That middle row is the whole policy argument. Because tokenised deposits keep the bank's ability to lend, central bankers see them as preserving the link between deposits and credit. Stablecoins that grow by pulling deposits out of banks weaken it. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised deposits</a> goes deeper into the trade-offs.</p>

<h2>JPMorgan Kinexys: the largest by far</h2>
<p>JPMorgan launched JPM Coin in 2019, renamed its blockchain unit Onyx and then, in November 2024, Kinexys. At the rebrand the platform was processing about $2 billion a day, with payment transactions up 1,000% year on year, <a href="https://decrypt.co/290487/jp-morgan-rebrands-blockchain-kinexys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decrypt reported</a>. By January 2026, JPMorgan's disclosures put daily volume at $2 billion to $3 billion and cumulative volume above $1.5 trillion since 2019, according to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-deploys-jpm-coin-canton-153837019.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reporting on the bank's Canton announcement</a>.</p>
<p>Two moves in the past year matter. On 12 November 2025 JPM Coin became available to institutional clients on Base, Coinbase's public layer-2 network, with B2C2, Coinbase and Mastercard among the first users. That put a bank deposit token on a public chain for the first time at this scale, though access remains limited to approved clients. Then, on 7 January 2026, Kinexys and Digital Asset said JPM Coin would launch natively on the Canton Network, in phases through 2026, starting with issuance, transfer and near-instant redemption. Corporate users include BMW, which uses Kinexys for automated treasury transfers.</p>

<h2>Citi Token Services: seven markets</h2>
<p>Citi launched Citi Token Services for cash in 2024, aimed at its corporate and institutional clients. In November 2025 the bank said the service was processing billions of dollars, was live in the US, UK, Singapore and Hong Kong, and was adding euro transfers from Dublin, per its <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251106449947/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>. On 30 September 2026 it added Japan, for US dollars, and the UAE, for dollars and euros, bringing the network to seven live markets, <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/?p=314361" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider reported</a>.</p>
<p>Citi's design choice is telling. Clients do not need new accounts or crypto wallets; they instruct transfers through existing banking channels and the tokenisation happens inside the bank. The ledger is plumbing, not a product. That makes adoption easy for treasurers and closes off the open-network use that crypto advocates care about.</p>

<h2>HSBC: from Hong Kong to London</h2>
<p>HSBC rolled out domestic tokenised deposit payments in Hong Kong and Singapore in 2025, then on 18 September 2025 announced cross-border transfers, starting with Ant International's dollar payment, and extended the service to the UK and Luxembourg for domestic payments in sterling, euros and dollars, according to <a href="https://treasurytoday.com/press-releases/press-release-hsbc-launches-new-cross-border-tokenised-deposit-service/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Treasury Today</a>. HSBC disclosed no volumes.</p>
<p>In the UK, HSBC, NatWest and Lloyds ran a UK Finance pilot using tokenised deposits for online marketplace payments in 2025, with the big lenders planning to offer tokenised customer deposits in 2026, as <a href="https://malaya.com.ph/weekly-features/banking-finance/uk-banks-press-on-with-tokenised-deposits-after-boe-stable-coin-warning" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reporting carried by Malaya</a> described. HSBC's executives said the strongest client demand was cross-border, where correspondent banking still imposes cut-offs and delays covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>Volumes in context</h2>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$2-3B</b><span>Kinexys daily volume, Jan 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$1.5T+</b><span>Kinexys cumulative volume since 2019</span></div><div class="stat"><b>7</b><span>live markets on Citi Token Services, Sep 2026</span></div></div>
<p>It is easy to dismiss bank tokens as pilots. The numbers say otherwise. Kinexys at $2 billion a day, if it ran every day of the year, would process about $730 billion annually. Genuine stablecoin payments, stripping out trading and internal transfers, were estimated at around $390 billion in 2025 by McKinsey and Artemis. Visa's USDC settlement with banks had reached a $3.5 billion annualised run rate by November 2025.</p>
<p>The comparison is imperfect. Kinexys volume is largely intragroup and interbank liquidity movement for JPMorgan clients, not commerce, and the bank has not published how much is one company moving its own money between accounts. Stablecoin supply, about $306 billion as of October 2026, is also a stock rather than a flow. But on payment value, bank tokens are already in the same league as stablecoins, concentrated in a handful of institutions. For more on the stablecoin side, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report</a>.</p>

<h2>Worked example: the Friday-evening sweep</h2>
<p>Here is where tokenised deposits earn their keep. The interest rate below is an illustrative assumption. A consumer electronics group has $40 million of surplus dollars in its Hong Kong subsidiary at 7pm on a Friday, and its Singapore subsidiary must fund a $40 million supplier payment that would otherwise be covered by an overdraft until Monday.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Conventional route.</b> Payment systems are closed. The Singapore entity borrows $40 million for three days. At an assumed 6% annual overdraft rate, that costs $40,000,000 x 6% x 3/365, about $19,700, plus the internal cost of managing the gap.</li>
<li><b>Tokenised deposit route.</b> If both entities bank with the same institution on a 24/7 tokenised service, the treasury moves $40 million between them in seconds on Friday evening. The overdraft is not needed.</li>
<li><b>Annualised.</b> A treasury facing that gap on 40 weekends a year would spend roughly $790,000 on overdrafts it could avoid.</li>
</ul>
<p>The catch is in the condition: both entities must bank with the same institution, or with banks whose ledgers interoperate. That is the binding constraint on tokenised deposits today. Treasurers should model their own banking structure and take advice from a qualified adviser before changing liquidity arrangements.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A tokenised deposit is only as useful as the number of other banks it can reach.</blockquote>

<h2>What regulators think</h2>
<p>Central banks have been unusually direct. The BIS, in its June 2025 Annual Economic Report, argued that stablecoins fall short as money on three tests (singleness, elasticity and integrity) and that the future lies in a unified ledger combining tokenised central bank reserves, commercial bank money and government bonds, as <a href="https://thefullfx.com/stablecoins-inadequate-as-money-but-tokenisation-next-gen-bis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Full FX summarised</a>. Tokenised deposits are the commercial bank money in that picture.</p>
<p>Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey went further in July 2025, telling The Times he would prefer banks pursue tokenised deposits rather than issuing their own stablecoins, and observing that the US was moving toward stablecoins and the ECB toward a CBDC, "neither" toward tokenised deposits, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/362352/bank-of-england-boss-warns-banks-against-issuing-stablecoins-amid-global-scrutiny" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported</a>. The Bank has said UK banks can experiment with tokenised deposits within existing rules.</p>
<p>The BIS's own experiment is Project Agora, launched on 3 April 2024 with seven central banks and more than 40 private financial institutions coordinated by the Institute of International Finance. Its prototype, delivered on 27 May 2026, showed tokenised commercial bank deposits and tokenised central bank reserves could settle atomically on a shared platform, across currencies, according to <a href="https://flow.db.com/Topics/cash-management/project-agora-and-cross-border-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Deutsche Bank's flow</a>. It used synthetic transactions only and left resilience, throughput and core-banking integration untested. The stakes are large: cross-border payment flows were about $195 trillion in 2024, about 91% of them wholesale, the same source notes. See also our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/wholesale-cbdc-explained/">wholesale CBDCs</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">Project mBridge</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>JPM Coin on Canton, through 2026:</b> the phased launch will show whether a deposit token can work across a network that includes other large institutions.</li>
<li><b>UK tokenised deposits in 2026:</b> whether HSBC, NatWest, Lloyds and others move from marketplace pilots to live customer deposits, and how that sits alongside the FCA's stablecoin regime, expected to be finalised around the end of 2026.</li>
<li><b>Project Agora's next step:</b> the BIS has signalled live transactions, potentially in real-world environments, after the May 2026 prototype.</li>
<li><b>Citi's network:</b> further markets after Japan and the UAE, and any disclosure of volumes beyond "billions".</li>
<li><b>US rules:</b> the GENIUS Act takes effect by January 2027 at the latest. How US bank regulators treat deposit tokens on public chains, compared with bank-issued payment stablecoins, will shape which model US banks choose. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-debate/">stablecoins and bank deposits</a> follows that argument.</li>
</ul>
<p>Tokenised deposits are less exciting than stablecoins and more important than they look. They are already moving hundreds of billions of dollars a year inside a few banks. Their weakness is the same as their strength: they stay inside the regulated banking system, and they will only rival stablecoins as a general payment instrument once banks agree to let their tokens talk to each other.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/tokenised-deposits-banks.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Real-World Asset Tokenisation in 2026: Treasuries, Credit and Gold</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Market Research</category><description>Tokenised real-world assets in 2026: rwa.xyz market size, Treasury funds from BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, private credit, gold tokens and DTCC plans.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">For years "tokenisation" was the word bankers used at conferences when they wanted to sound modern without committing to anything. That changed quietly. In 2026 the world's largest asset manager, the clearing house behind most US securities settlement and several of Wall Street's oldest fund houses all run live products on public blockchains. The total is still small next to traditional markets, but it is no longer theoretical.</p>

<h2>How big is it, really?</h2>
<p>Measuring tokenised assets is harder than it sounds, because some tokens are freely transferable onchain while others merely record ownership of assets that live in a bank's system. <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rwa.xyz</a>, the most widely cited tracker, separates the two. On 14 October 2026 it showed about $39.2 billion of "distributed" assets, the kind that move freely between wallets, and about $259 billion of "represented" assets recorded onchain within closed systems. It counted more than 5.2 million holders of tokenised assets, up 18% in a month. Stablecoins, worth about $293 billion by the same tracker (DefiLlama's broader count was about $306 billion), are counted separately.</p>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$39.2B</b><span>distributed tokenised assets, 14 October 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$14.9B</b><span>tokenised US Treasury funds</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>5.2M+</b><span>holders of tokenised assets</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Treasuries: the asset that made it work</h2>
<p>Government debt led the way because it is simple, liquid and solves an obvious problem: crypto firms holding billions in stablecoins wanted a way to earn interest without leaving the blockchain. Tokenised Treasury funds held about $14.9 billion across 117 products on 14 October 2026, according to <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/treasuries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rwa.xyz's Treasury dashboard</a>, paying a seven-day yield of about 3.5%.</p>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Fund</th><th>Manager</th><th>Value, 14 Oct 2026</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>USYC</td><td>Circle</td><td>$2.38B</td></tr>
<tr><td>USDY</td><td>Ondo</td><td>$2.35B</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUIDL</td><td>BlackRock</td><td>$2.16B</td></tr>
<tr><td>iBENJI and BENJI</td><td>Franklin Templeton</td><td>$2.40B combined</td></tr>
<tr><td>WTGXX</td><td>WisdomTree</td><td>$1.23B</td></tr>
<tr><td>JLTXX</td><td>JPMorgan</td><td>$738M</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Two of these funds marked turning points. Franklin Templeton's onchain money fund, launched on Stellar in 2021, was the first US-registered money fund to use a public blockchain as its official record of who owns what. BlackRock's BUIDL, launched in March 2024 with a $5 million minimum and BNY Mellon as custodian, made tokenised funds acceptable to large institutions overnight. We explain how these differ from stablecoins in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/yield-bearing-stablecoins-tokenised-treasuries/">our guide to tokenised Treasuries and yield-bearing stablecoins</a>.</p>

<h2>Private credit: higher yield, harder questions</h2>
<p>Tokenised credit is the second-largest category, at about $8.2 billion of distributed value and roughly $37.7 billion in represented form as of mid-October 2026, per rwa.xyz. The biggest platforms include STOKR, Maple, Hastra and Centrifuge. These products offer higher yields because they lend to businesses, trade finance deals or other borrowers who cannot tap bond markets easily.</p>
<p>That yield comes with credit risk, and a blockchain does nothing to make a borrower more likely to repay. What tokenisation does offer is transparency: loan books, repayments and defaults can be visible onchain in near real time, which is more than most private credit funds disclose to their investors.</p>

<h2>Gold: the oldest store of value, newly divisible</h2>
<p>Tokenised commodities are almost all gold. On 14 October 2026 rwa.xyz listed Tether Gold at about $3.0 billion and Paxos Gold at about $1.8 billion, with distributed commodity tokens totalling about $5.2 billion. A shop assistant in Kuwait who wants to hold a few grams of gold, rather than a whole coin from the souk, can now do so in a wallet and sell at any hour. The trade-off is trust in the custodian holding the bars.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Tokenisation does not make an asset safer. It makes ownership faster to move and easier to check.</blockquote>

<h2>Why institutions bother</h2>
<p>The case is mostly about time and collateral. A traditional fund share settles a day or more after the trade and can only move during market hours. A tokenised share can settle in seconds on a Sunday. For a trading firm that needs to post margin at 3 a.m., or a treasurer who wants idle cash earning interest until the minute it is needed, that difference is worth real money. It also cuts the reconciliation work that happens when several firms keep separate records of the same asset.</p>

<h2>Wall Street's plumbing moves onchain</h2>
<p>The most important development may be the least flashy. In December 2025 the SEC issued a no-action letter letting the Depository Trust Company, part of DTCC, tokenise assets it already holds in custody, starting with Russell 1000 shares, major index ETFs and US Treasuries, on approved blockchains. DTC planned to begin the rollout in the second half of 2026, under an authorisation running three years, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/382331/dtcc-subsidiary-tokenization-service-us-securities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. DTCC is also a founding validator of Circle's Arc network, and the two plan to tokenise DTC-held assets there from the second half of 2027.</p>
<p>When the institution that settles most US securities trades starts issuing tokens, the question shifts from whether tokenisation happens to how fast.</p>

<h2>Forecasts, and a reality check</h2>
<p>Predictions vary wildly. Boston Consulting Group once projected $16 trillion of tokenised assets by 2030. McKinsey's more cautious estimate, reported by <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/mckinsey-estimates-tokenization-will-be-less-than-2-trillion-by-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ledger Insights</a>, put the figure at under $2 trillion in its base case, within a range of $1 trillion to $4 trillion, excluding stablecoins.</p>
<p>Our view is that the lower forecasts look closer to the trend. Reaching even $1 trillion of freely transferable tokenised assets by 2030 from about $39 billion today would mean the market more than doubling every year. That is possible if DTCC-style tokenisation of mainstream securities takes off, but it is not where the market is today. The more realistic near-term story is that tokenised funds become standard collateral for exchanges, lenders and payment firms, a role covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report</a>.</p>

<h2>Why it matters beyond Wall Street</h2>
<p>For ordinary people, the eventual benefit is access. A teacher in Montreal, a market trader in Kampala or a family in Jakarta could one day hold a fraction of a Treasury fund or a gram of gold as easily as they hold a stablecoin, with the same instant settlement. Most products are still restricted to institutions and qualified investors, and that will change only as regulators get comfortable. But the rails are being laid by the firms that run today's markets, which is the strongest signal yet that they intend to use them. On the payments side of that convergence, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins vs CBDCs vs tokenised deposits</a>.</p>
<p class="note">Market figures are from rwa.xyz as of 14 October 2026 unless stated otherwise. This article is not investment advice.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/real-world-asset-tokenisation-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Open Banking 2026: UK, EU, US Rule 1033 and India&#x27;s Account Aggregator</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/open-banking-account-aggregator/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>UK open banking passed 1 billion payments, the EU agreed PSD3, the US 1033 rule is on hold and India&#x27;s Account Aggregator hit 45 crore consents. A comparison.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/open-banking-account-aggregator.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Open banking rests on a simple idea: your financial data belongs to you, and you should be able to tell your bank to share it with another company you trust. Four major economies have tried to put that idea into law. They took very different routes, and in 2026 their results are diverging fast. One passed a billion payments, one is rewriting its rulebook, one is stuck in court and one quietly built the largest consent system of the lot.</p>

<h2>What open banking actually does</h2>
<p>There are two halves. The first is data access: with your permission, a budgeting app, lender or accountant can read your account balances and transactions through a secure connection instead of asking for your password or a stack of PDF statements. The second is payment initiation: a third party can trigger a bank transfer from your account, again with your consent, which lets merchants take payment directly from bank accounts instead of cards.</p>
<p>The value is in what that enables. A small business owner in Manchester can get a loan decision in minutes because the lender reads real cash flow. A customer can pay a utility bill by bank transfer with two taps. A freelancer can see accounts from three banks in one app.</p>

<h2>The UK: payments are the breakout</h2>
<p>The UK started in 2018, when the competition regulator ordered the nine largest banks to build standard APIs. In July 2026, Open Banking Limited said the system had passed one billion open banking payments and 100 billion API calls since launch, with 40.16 million payments in June 2026 alone, as <a href="https://www.openbankingexpo.com/news/uk-open-banking-ecosystem-surpasses-one-billion-payments-and-100-billion-api-calls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Open Banking Expo reported</a>. More than 16 million people used open banking services in 2025, and payments grew 53% year on year, according to <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2025/12/17/uk-open-banking-16-m-users-vrps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert</a>.</p>
<p>The next step is commercial variable recurring payments, which let a customer authorise a merchant to pull varying amounts within limits, much like a card on file but over bank rails. A scheme backed by 31 firms was expected to make its first live payments in early 2026. If it works, it gives UK billers a real alternative to cards and direct debits.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>40.16M</b><span>UK open banking payments, June 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>16M+</b><span>UK users in 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>45 crore+</b><span>India AA consents, FY26</span></div></div>

<h2>The EU: PSD2 grows up</h2>
<p>The EU's second Payment Services Directive created open banking rights across the bloc from 2018, but implementation was uneven. Each bank built its own interface, quality varied, and some made the consent flow so clunky that customers gave up. In November 2025, EU lawmakers reached a provisional agreement on a new Payment Services Regulation and PSD3, according to <a href="https://www.taylorwessing.com/en/insights-and-events/insights/2025/11/eu-lawmakers-strike-a-deal-on-payments-reforms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Taylor Wessing</a>.</p>
<p>The package gives customers a dashboard to see and revoke the data permissions they have granted, lists barriers banks may not put in front of licensed providers and extends name-matching checks. It also shifts more fraud liability onto providers, including full refunds for some impersonation scams. A transition period of about 21 months is expected once texts are final. A separate framework for wider financial data sharing has moved more slowly.</p>

<h2>The US: a rule in limbo</h2>
<p>The US has had open banking in practice for years, built on screen scraping and private deals between banks and aggregators. In October 2024 the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalised a rule under Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act requiring banks to share data with authorised third parties, generally free of charge.</p>
<p>It has not taken effect. Bank groups sued, the CFPB itself told the court in 2025 that it viewed the rule as unlawful, and a federal court paused enforcement while the agency reconsiders, according to a <a href="https://openbankingtracker.com/guides/section-1033-status" target="_blank" rel="noopener">status tracker</a>. The first compliance date of April 2026 passed without effect. In August 2026 the CFPB sent a new proposed rule to the White House regulatory office for review, <a href="https://www.consumerfinancemonitor.com/2026/08/06/cfpb-sends-new-section-1033-open-banking-proposal-to-oira-for-review/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Consumer Finance Monitor reported</a>. The central fight is whether banks may charge fees for data access. Some large banks have already begun charging aggregators commercially.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Open banking succeeds when someone builds the pipes for everyone. It stalls when every bank negotiates its own toll.</blockquote>

<h2>India: consent as infrastructure</h2>
<p>India took a different approach. Rather than ordering banks to open APIs to any fintech, the RBI created a new type of regulated entity, the Account Aggregator, whose only job is to carry encrypted data between institutions with the customer's consent. The aggregator cannot read or store the data. It is a consent manager and a pipe.</p>
<p>The scale is now large. A Sahamati report from June 2026 said the ecosystem had passed 45 crore (450 million) cumulative consents, with more than 7 lakh consents a day in FY26, and had facilitated nearly 3.8 crore financial services such as loans and investments, <a href="https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/indias-account-aggregator-ecosystem-facilitates-nearly-38-crore-263.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IANS reported</a>. Personal finance management users reached 5.96 crore.</p>
<p>Lending drove the early growth. Non-bank lenders use aggregated bank statements to underwrite borrowers with thin credit files. It sits alongside India's other public rails, including <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bharat-connect-explained/">Bharat Connect</a>, as part of a deliberate national stack.</p>

<p>The design has a trade-off. Because every institution must connect through licensed aggregators and follow common technical standards, onboarding can be slow, and some banks have had high failure rates when responding to data requests. But the consent artefact, a machine-readable record of exactly what was shared, for how long and for what purpose, is a feature other markets are now studying closely.</p>

<h2>Four models side by side</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Market</th><th>Legal basis</th><th>Status in 2026</th><th>Strongest use</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>UK</td><td>Competition order (2017), PSD2</td><td>Live, moving to commercial VRPs</td><td>Account-to-account payments</td></tr>
<tr><td>EU</td><td>PSD2, PSR/PSD3 agreed Nov 2025</td><td>Live, rules being upgraded</td><td>Data access, payments growing</td></tr>
<tr><td>US</td><td>CFPB Section 1033 rule (2024)</td><td>Enjoined, being rewritten</td><td>Private aggregator deals</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>RBI Account Aggregator framework</td><td>Live at national scale</td><td>Lending and data sharing</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>What it means for payments</h2>
<p>Open banking's biggest long-term effect may be on how people pay bills and merchants. Bank-to-bank payments initiated through open banking are cheaper for merchants than cards and settle on instant rails where they exist. That is why the UK and EU are pushing variable recurring payments, and why the US fight over data fees matters well beyond budgeting apps. For a look at how this could change household bills, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/">the future of bill payments</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/open-banking-account-aggregator.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Project Nexus: How UPI and Asia&#x27;s Instant Payment Systems Will Connect</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Payment Rails</category><description>Project Nexus links instant payment systems in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Who runs it, how it works and when it goes live.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/project-nexus-instant-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">An engineer from Chennai working in Singapore can already pay a hawker stall with her phone in seconds, and her mother in Chennai can do the same at a vegetable market. But sending money between those two phones still means a money transfer app or a bank wire, with fees, an exchange rate markup and often a wait. Project Nexus is a bet that the fix is not another app. It is a connection between the national payment systems both women already use.</p>

<h2>The problem Nexus solves</h2>
<p>Many countries now have fast domestic payment systems: UPI in India, DuitNow in Malaysia, InstaPay in the Philippines, FAST and PayNow in Singapore, PromptPay in Thailand. Linking them one pair at a time is slow and expensive. Each link needs its own legal agreement, technical work and rules for currency conversion.</p>
<p>The arithmetic is unforgiving. Five countries linking every pair need ten separate connections. Ten countries would need 45. With Nexus, each system connects once, to a shared hub, and can reach every other member through it. That is the whole idea.</p>

<h2>How it got here</h2>
<p>The BIS Innovation Hub started Nexus as an experiment in 2021. By 2024 it had a blueprint, and on 30 June 2024 central banks from India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed up in Basel to take it forward, <a href="https://www.theasianbanker.com/updates-and-articles/project-nexus-to-transform-global-payments-going-live-in-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Asian Banker</a> reported. The BIS said the first wave of countries covers a market of about 1.7 billion people.</p>
<p>In April 2025, those five central banks incorporated Nexus Global Payments in Singapore as a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee, according to the <a href="https://www.bot.or.th/en/news-and-media/news/news-20250403.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Thailand</a>. That moved Nexus from a BIS research project into a real organisation with its own staff and rulebook. Andrew McCormack, formerly founding head of the BIS Innovation Hub's Singapore centre and earlier responsible for Canada's real-time payments platform at Payments Canada, was named its first chief executive in August 2025.</p>

<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>6</b><span>central bank members after Bank Indonesia joined in February 2026</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>1.7B</b><span>people in the first wave of Nexus countries, per the BIS</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>2027</b><span>target year for the first live deployment</span></div>
</div>

<h2>Who builds it</h2>
<p>In February 2026, Nexus Global Payments named a joint venture between Malaysia's PayNet and Singapore's NETS as its technical operator, with Amazon Web Services and Endava as technology partners, according to the <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nexus-global-payments-appoints-technical-operator-2026-02-09" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>. Development was set to begin in early 2026, with go-live targeted for 2027 across the first group of countries. Both operators know cross-border links well: NETS was involved in the 2021 Singapore-Thailand account-to-account connection, and Malaysia's DuitNow already works with several neighbouring systems.</p>
<p>Membership is growing. <a href="https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_282426.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Indonesia</a> became a full member on 2 February 2026, having been a special observer, and plans to connect its BI-FAST system. The European Central Bank has also been a special observer.</p>

<h2>How a Nexus payment would work</h2>
<ol>
  <li>The sender opens her usual banking or payment app and picks a recipient abroad, using a phone number or account alias where supported.</li>
  <li>Her domestic system passes the payment to Nexus using standard ISO 20022 messages.</li>
  <li>An FX provider on the network offers a rate, shown to the sender before she confirms.</li>
  <li>The payment is passed to the recipient's domestic system and credited, with the target of finishing within 60 seconds.</li>
</ol>
<p>The recipient does not need to know anything about Nexus. To her it is just money arriving in her normal account.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Nexus does not ask anyone to adopt a new currency or a new app. It asks the plumbing to talk to itself.</blockquote>

<h2>Why India's participation matters</h2>
<p>UPI is the heavyweight. It averaged about 802 million transactions a day in September 2026, and India receives more remittances than any other country. A UPI connection to Southeast Asia through a single hub would cover corridors used by huge numbers of migrant workers, students and small exporters. India already has bilateral links, such as UPI-PayNow with Singapore, but Nexus would replace a patchwork with one standard connection. We cover UPI's international push in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI's global expansion</a>.</p>
<p>Cost is the prize. The World Bank's estimate, cited at the 2024 signing, put the average cost of sending $200 across borders at around 6.2%. The World Bank's latest figure, for the third quarter of 2025, is 6.36%. Instant links between domestic systems can strip out several layers of that, though FX spreads and provider fees will still apply. For more on where those costs come from, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home</a>.</p>

<h2>Why not just more bilateral links?</h2>
<p>Bilateral links do work, and Asia has built several. Singapore and Thailand connected PayNow and PromptPay in 2021. India linked UPI with Singapore's PayNow. Malaysia's DuitNow is connected with schemes in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia. Each was a real achievement.</p>
<p>The trouble is what happens as the network grows. Every new pair needs fresh negotiations on rules, liability, fraud handling, messaging formats and currency conversion. Each link is a little different, so banks and apps have to build to several specifications. A Filipino nurse in Singapore and a Thai student in Kuala Lumpur end up with different experiences, limits and prices depending on which link they use.</p>
<p>Nexus standardises all of that. One rulebook, one technical specification, one governance body owned by the members. A new country does the work once and reaches everyone already connected. That is the same logic that made card networks and SWIFT valuable decades ago, applied to instant account-to-account payments.</p>

<h2>What could slow it down</h2>
<ul>
  <li><b>Compliance.</b> Every payment must clear sanctions and anti-money-laundering checks in both countries, in seconds.</li>
  <li><b>Capital controls.</b> Some members restrict how much currency can flow out, and those limits apply to Nexus too.</li>
  <li><b>FX liquidity.</b> Someone has to hold the currencies and quote good rates for smaller pairs, such as pesos to baht.</li>
  <li><b>Domestic readiness.</b> Each system must upgrade to plug in, and timelines can slip.</li>
</ul>

<h2>How it fits the bigger picture</h2>
<p>Nexus is the retail, account-to-account answer to cross-border payments. It sits alongside the wholesale experiments using central bank tokens, such as <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-mbridge-cross-border-cbdc/">mBridge and Agorá</a>, and private alternatives such as stablecoins. We think the instant-payment route has one big advantage: people already trust and use the systems at each end. If Nexus delivers in 2027, a transfer from Singapore to Chennai could start to feel like a domestic payment.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/project-nexus-instant-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Diaspora Bonds Explained: India&#x27;s $11.3B Playbook, Israel, Nigeria</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-bonds-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-bonds-explained/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>How diaspora bonds work: India&#x27;s 1991, 1998 and 2000 issues, Israel Bonds since 1951, Nigeria&#x27;s 2017 deal, Ethiopia&#x27;s misstep and the 2026 FCNR(B) window.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/diaspora-bonds-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 5 August 1998, State Bank of India opened the books on a five-year US dollar bond paying 7.75 percent, tax-free in India, and open only to people of Indian origin. It closed within weeks having raised about $4.2 billion. Two years later SBI did it again and pulled in $5.5 billion. Few governments have ever borrowed from their own emigrants at that scale, and the way India did it still shapes how India reaches for diaspora money in a crisis, including the deposit window the Reserve Bank opened this June.</p>

<p>This piece looks at what a diaspora bond actually is, why India's issues worked when others flopped, what Israel and Nigeria did differently, and why India has since switched from bonds to bank deposits as its emergency lever.</p>

<h2>What a diaspora bond is, and what makes it different</h2>

<p>A diaspora bond is a debt instrument a country (or a state-owned entity) sells to its own emigrants and their descendants. On paper it looks like any other sovereign or quasi-sovereign bond: fixed coupon, fixed tenor, repayment at maturity. The difference sits in who buys it and why.</p>

<p>In their influential paper on the subject, World Bank economist <a href="https://www.dilipratha.com/index_files/DiasporaBonds-JICEP.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dilip Ratha and Suhas Ketkar</a> argue that emigrants price country risk differently from a fund manager in London. They have family in the country, they may plan to retire there, and they often see repayment in local currency as a feature rather than a risk because they expect to spend that money at home anyway. That gives the issuer two things institutional markets rarely offer: a lower coupon than its credit rating would demand, and access to money when global markets are closed to it.</p>

<p>The authors call the first effect a "patriotic discount". The second is arguably more valuable. India's 1998 and 2000 issues both came at moments when raising dollars through normal channels was expensive or impractical.</p>

<p>Diaspora bonds are also different from NRI bank deposits, which India relies on far more heavily today. A deposit sits on a bank's balance sheet and can be withdrawn under the account's rules. A bond is a fixed obligation. If you want the deposit side of the story, our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE, NRO and FCNR accounts</a> covers how those work.</p>

<h2>India's three issues, side by side</h2>

<p>India has tapped its diaspora directly three times, always through SBI rather than the sovereign itself, and always for five years. The <a href="https://www.dilipratha.com/index_files/DiasporaBonds-JICEP.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ketkar and Ratha paper</a> puts the proceeds at $1.6 billion for India Development Bonds in 1991, $4.2 billion for Resurgent India Bonds in 1998 and $5.5 billion for India Millennium Deposits in 2000, a combined $11.3 billion.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$11.3B</b><span>raised by India's three SBI diaspora issues, 1991-2000</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$55B+</b><span>sold by Israel Bonds since 1951</span></div><div class="stat"><b>130%</b><span>final subscription for Nigeria's 2017 diaspora bond</span></div></div>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Issue</th><th>Year</th><th>Raised</th><th>Coupon</th><th>Tenor</th><th>Who could buy</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>India Development Bonds</td><td>1991</td><td>$1.6B</td><td>Not in our sources</td><td>5 years</td><td>Diaspora investors</td></tr>
<tr><td>Resurgent India Bonds (RIB)</td><td>1998</td><td>$4.2B</td><td>7.75% USD, 8.00% GBP, 6.25% DM</td><td>5 years</td><td>People of Indian origin</td></tr>
<tr><td>India Millennium Deposits (IMD)</td><td>2000</td><td>$5.5B</td><td>8.50% USD, 7.85% GBP, 6.85% EUR</td><td>5 years</td><td>NRIs and overseas corporate bodies of Indian origin</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nigeria Diaspora Bond</td><td>2017</td><td>$300M</td><td>5.625% USD</td><td>5 years</td><td>Retail, aimed at Nigerians abroad</td></tr>
<tr><td>Ethiopia GERD bond (US sales)</td><td>2011-2014</td><td>~$5.8M from US residents</td><td>Varied</td><td>Varied</td><td>Ethiopians abroad; unregistered in US</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The RIB terms, summarised by chartered accountant <a href="https://www.rashminsanghvi.com/articles/economics-&-investment/archives/resurgent_india_bonds.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rashmin Sanghvi</a> at the time, show how the product was built for a retail investor abroad. The minimum ticket was $2,000, £1,000 or DM 3,000. Interest could be paid half-yearly or rolled up. And the interest was exempt from Indian income tax, with wealth tax and gift tax exemptions on top. For a Gulf-based engineer who could not easily buy Indian government paper any other way, that was a clean, tax-efficient dollar asset with SBI's name on it.</p>

<p>The IMD followed in late 2000 with an 8.5 percent dollar coupon, which <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/article/economy-policy/should-india-go-for-bond-issue-to-tap-nris-other-overseas-investors-122081700104_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a> notes was well above the NRI deposit returns available then. Redemption fell on 29 December 2005. RBI estimated the outflow at $7.3 billion and sold dollars to SBI to meet it, at Rs 45.34 to the dollar. (Business Standard quotes the amount raised as both $5.5 billion and $5.2 billion; the Ratha paper uses $5.5 billion.)</p>

<h2>Why India's bonds worked</h2>

<p>The Ratha and Ketkar analysis points to a handful of design choices that are easy to describe and hard to copy.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>A trusted issuer.</b> SBI, not the government directly, sold the paper. Investors saw it as a "rupee-rich" bank that could always meet obligations. That perception mattered more than any rating.</li>
<li><b>Distribution where the diaspora lives.</b> SBI used its own US network and outsourced Gulf marketing to Citibank and HSBC. The bonds were sold where people banked.</li>
<li><b>Simple terms.</b> Fixed rate, bullet maturity, non-negotiable, small minimums. No one needed a broker to understand it.</li>
<li><b>Know-your-customer at the point of sale.</b> Restricting the bond to people of Indian origin made it a community product and kept regulators comfortable.</li>
</ul>

<p>The trade-off is cost. These were not cheap loans. A 7.75 percent dollar coupon in 1998, tax-free, was generous by the standards of investment-grade issuers. India paid for speed and certainty, and the currency risk landed with SBI and the government. Under the IMD agreement, exchange losses from rupee depreciation were shared between the two.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A diaspora bond is cheapest for the country that needs it least, and most expensive for the one that needs it now.</blockquote>

<h2>Israel: seventy-five years of the same product</h2>

<p>Israel is the model every finance ministry cites, and the scale is hard to match. The Development Corporation for Israel, which sells Israel Bonds in the US, says it has generated <a href="https://israelbonds.com/press-release/two-years-since-the-october-7-attacks-as-ceasefire-continues-to-hold-israel-bonds-announces-record-5-7-billion-in-global-investments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than $55 billion in worldwide investments since 1951</a>, including a record $5.7 billion in the two years after the 7 October 2023 attacks and $1 billion in the first 30 days alone.</p>

<p>What makes the Israeli programme different from India's is permanence. India issued three times, each in a squeeze. Israel issues every year, with a menu of fixed and floating instruments from one to 20 years and denominations from $100 to $1 million. The Ratha paper notes DCI ran roughly 200 staff in the US and registered its offerings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which let it market openly to retail buyers.</p>

<p>The patriotic discount was real but has faded. Until the late 1980s, 10-to-15-year Israel bonds paid around 4 percent fixed while US 10-year Treasury yields averaged about 6.8 percent over the same period, according to Ketkar and Ratha. Today the bonds price much closer to market.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what the patriotic discount actually costs a buyer</h2>

<p>Take the two programmes at their historical terms and put $10,000 into each.</p>

<p><b>Israel, pre-1990 style.</b> A 10-year bond at about 4 percent pays roughly $400 a year, or $4,000 over the life of the bond in simple interest. A Treasury at the 6.8 percent average Ketkar and Ratha cite would have paid about $680 a year, or $6,800. The gap of roughly $2,800, around 28 percent of the principal, is the gift the buyer made to Israel's treasury in exchange for the sense of contributing.</p>

<p><b>India, RIB 1998.</b> $10,000 in the dollar tranche at 7.75 percent, with interest compounded half-yearly for five years, grows to about $14,625. Because that interest was exempt from Indian income tax, a non-resident buyer kept all of it on the Indian side (tax in the country of residence was a separate question). There was no discount here; if anything, India paid a premium.</p>

<p>The lesson is that "diaspora bond" covers two very different deals. One is a charitable loan with a coupon attached. The other is a well-priced crisis instrument where the diaspora's real contribution is speed and willingness to buy when no one else will. Any reader weighing an instrument like this today should take the tax and currency questions to a qualified adviser; our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">NRI tax on money sent to India</a> covers the basics.</p>

<h2>Nigeria and Ethiopia: one clean execution, one cautionary tale</h2>

<p>Nigeria's 2017 issue is the best recent example from Africa. The Debt Management Office sold a <a href="https://www.african-markets.com/en/news/west-africa/nigeria/in-a-first-diaspora-bond-nigeria-successfully-raises-300m-oversubscribed-by-130" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$300 million five-year bond at 5.625 percent</a>, registered with both the US SEC and the UK Listing Authority and sold through private banks and wealth managers. Orders peaked near 190 percent of the offer before settling at about 130 percent. The bond <a href="https://gazettengr.com/nigeria-redeemed-300-million-diaspora-bond-dmo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matured and was redeemed in June 2022</a>, which the DMO used as evidence of its reliability.</p>

<p>The registration point is the one most governments miss. Ethiopia's state utility sold bonds for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to Ethiopians in the US without registering them. In 2016 the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2016-113" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEC found it had raised about $5.8 million from more than 3,100 US residents</a> between 2011 and 2014 in violation of securities law, and the utility agreed to pay back nearly $6.5 million including interest. An earlier Ethiopian diaspora bond had already sold slowly; a <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/ethiopia-s-new-diaspora-bond-will-it-be-successful-this-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank blog</a> pinned that on doubts about the utility's ability to repay, low trust in the guarantor and political risk.</p>

<p>Put the two side by side and the pattern is obvious. Patriotism raises interest. Registration, a credible issuer and distribution through institutions people already use turn interest into money.</p>

<h2>Why India switched from bonds to deposits</h2>

<p>India has not issued a diaspora bond since 2000. When the rupee came under pressure in 2013, RBI chose a different tool: it offered banks a concessional dollar swap for fresh FCNR(B) deposits of three years or more. According to <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/personal-finance/banking/story/bt-explainer-how-a-special-window-to-attract-fcnr-b-deposits-can-help-bring-in-more-forex-535775-2026-06-09" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today</a>, that 2013 scheme brought in about $34 billion in total, including roughly $26 billion of FCNR(B) deposits.</p>

<p>The logic is practical. A deposit scheme runs through every bank's existing NRI desk, needs no prospectus abroad and avoids foreign securities registration entirely. The bank carries the deposit; RBI absorbs the hedging cost through the swap. The NRI gets a foreign currency deposit with no rupee risk, which is closer to what many buyers of RIBs and IMDs wanted anyway. A 2022 industry proposal for "India Millennial Bonds" never went anywhere, partly because, as one economist told Business Standard, such a move could signal that something was wrong.</p>

<p>RBI reached for the same tool again on 8 June 2026, after heavy foreign portfolio outflows tied to the West Asia conflict pushed the rupee lower. The new window covers fresh FCNR(B) deposits of three to five years mobilised between 8 June and 30 September, with RBI bearing the full hedging cost. Early take-up has been far stronger than in 2013. RBI data reported by <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/latest/economy/story/fcnrb-deposits-contribute-over-90-of-40-82-bn-raised-under-rbis-forex-swap-scheme-546658-2026-08-01" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Today</a> showed $40.8 billion raised under the scheme by 31 July, of which $36.7 billion was FCNR(B) deposits, already above the entire 2013 FCNR haul.</p>

<p>For background on how these flows fit India's wider relationship with its emigrants, see our piece on the global Indian diaspora economy and our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/">NRI investment routes into India</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>30 September 2026:</b> the cut-off for fresh FCNR(B) deposits to qualify for RBI's swap. The final tally will show whether this window becomes the largest diaspora mobilisation India has run.</li>
<li><b>16 October 2026:</b> the date to which RBI said the swap facility itself would stay open for banks.</li>
<li><b>2029 to 2031:</b> the three-to-five-year deposits raised this year fall due. India has been here before: the IMD redemption in December 2005 required RBI to supply about $7.3 billion. A deposit wall many times that size will need the same planning, and readers should watch how RBI phases it.</li>
<li><b>Whether anyone in Africa or South Asia issues a registered, retail diaspora bond in 2026-27.</b> Nigeria's 2017 template is there to copy. The <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a> and host-country securities law will decide where Indian-origin investors can even buy one.</li>
</ul>

<p>The deeper point is that diaspora money is not patient by default. It is patient when the issuer is trusted, the terms are simple and the product is sold where the diaspora already banks. India learned that in 1998. The 2026 numbers suggest it has not forgotten.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/diaspora-bonds-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Crypto Tax by Country 2026: India, US, UK, UAE, Japan and 5 More</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-tax-by-country-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-tax-by-country-2026/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Crypto tax rates in 2026 across India, US, UK, UAE, Germany, Singapore, Portugal, Australia, Canada and Japan, with a worked example and OECD CARF dates.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-tax-by-country-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A product designer in Porto bought ether in early 2025 and sold it 360 days later at a profit of EUR 10,000. Under Portugal's rules she owes 28% of that, or EUR 2,800. Had she waited six more days, the gain would have been exempt. Across the border in Germany the cut-off is one year too, though the exact rule differs. In India there is no waiting period at all: the same gain is taxed at a flat 30% whenever it is realised. Crypto tax in 2026 is less about the headline rate and more about the calendar, and the calendar is about to get much more visible to tax authorities.</p>

<p>This guide compares ten jurisdictions that matter most to readers of this site, then looks at the reporting machinery coming online in 2026 and 2027 that ends most of the guesswork about what tax authorities can see. Rules change often, rates below are as of August 2026, and none of this is tax advice.</p>

<h2>The ten-country comparison</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>How individual gains are taxed</th><th>Rate</th><th>Holding-period relief</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>India</td><td>Special VDA regime</td><td>Flat 30% plus 4% cess and any surcharge</td><td>None; losses cannot be set off or carried forward</td></tr>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>Capital gains</td><td>Ordinary rates if held one year or less; 0%, 15% or 20% if longer</td><td>Long-term rates after one year</td></tr>
<tr><td>United Kingdom</td><td>Capital gains tax</td><td>18% or 24%</td><td>None; GBP 3,000 annual exempt amount</td></tr>
<tr><td>UAE</td><td>No personal income or capital gains tax</td><td>0% for individuals</td><td>Not applicable</td></tr>
<tr><td>Germany</td><td>Private sale (section 23 EStG)</td><td>Personal income tax rate</td><td>Tax-free after one year; gains under EUR 1,000 a year exempt</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>No capital gains tax</td><td>0% if capital in nature; trading profits taxable</td><td>Depends on "badges of trade"</td></tr>
<tr><td>Portugal</td><td>Capital gains</td><td>Flat 28% (or opt for progressive rates)</td><td>Exempt after 365 days</td></tr>
<tr><td>Australia</td><td>Capital gains tax</td><td>Marginal income tax rates</td><td>50% discount after 12 months</td></tr>
<tr><td>Canada</td><td>Capital gains</td><td>Half the gain taxed at marginal rates</td><td>None</td></tr>
<tr><td>Japan</td><td>Miscellaneous income</td><td>Up to 55% now; about 20% expected from January 2028</td><td>None; three-year loss carry-forward planned</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Three groups emerge. The <b>flat-and-strict</b> camp (India) taxes every gain at one high rate with no relief. The <b>patience-rewarding</b> camp (Germany, Portugal, Australia, the US) cuts or removes tax for holders who wait a year. The <b>no-capital-gains</b> camp (UAE, Singapore) taxes individuals only when activity looks like a business. The UK and Canada sit in between with moderate rates and no holding-period break.</p>

<h2>India: the hardest regime among large markets</h2>

<p>India's rules, introduced in 2022 and carried into the new Income-tax Act, 2025 that took effect on 1 April 2026, remain the toughest of any major economy. Gains on virtual digital assets are taxed at 30% plus a 4% cess, an effective floor of 31.2% before surcharge. Only the cost of acquisition is deductible, so exchange fees and gas costs do not reduce the bill. A loss on one token cannot be set against a gain on another, and losses cannot be carried forward, as a <a href="https://www.patronaccounting.com/blog/crypto-vda-taxation-income-tax-act-2025-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Patron Accounting summary</a> of the current rules sets out.</p>

<p>On top of that, a 1% tax deducted at source applies on transfers above Rs 50,000 a year for specified persons and Rs 10,000 for others. Swapping one token for another, spending crypto and gifting it are all taxable events. Transactions go in Schedule VDA of the return, and foreign-held crypto must also be disclosed in Schedule FA. For NRIs, the questions of residency and what counts as Indian-source income add another layer; see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">NRI tax on money sent to India</a> and our overview of India's crypto regulation in 2026.</p>

<h2>United States: lighter rates, heavier paperwork</h2>

<p>The US taxes crypto as property. Gains on assets held one year or less are taxed at ordinary income rates; gains on assets held longer get the preferential 0%, 15% or 20% rates. The bigger 2026 story is reporting. Under final regulations covered in an <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/final-regulations-and-related-IRS-guidance-for-reporting-by-brokers-on-sales-and-exchanges-of-digital-assets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IRS fact sheet</a>, custodial brokers report gross proceeds on the new Form 1099-DA for transactions from 1 January 2025, and cost basis for certain transactions from 1 January 2026. Non-custodial platforms are excluded for now.</p>

<p>The practical problem for 2025 returns was blank basis boxes. Because basis reporting applies only to assets acquired from 2026, many users received forms showing proceeds with no cost, as Greenback Tax Services notes. Anyone who does not supply their own purchase records risks being taxed on the whole sale amount.</p>

<h2>UK, Germany and Portugal: three European models</h2>

<p>The UK raised capital gains tax rates on 30 October 2024 to 18% for gains within the basic rate band and 24% above it, and cut the annual exempt amount to GBP 3,000, as summarised by <a href="https://uktax.tools/capital-gains-tax-rates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UK Tax Tools</a> from HMRC figures. There is no holding-period relief, so a trader and a long-term holder pay the same rate.</p>

<p>Germany is the mirror image. Under section 23 of the Income Tax Act, gains on privately held crypto are taxable only if the coins are sold within one year of purchase. Since 2024, total annual private-sale gains below EUR 1,000 are tax-free, and staking or lending does not reset the one-year clock, according to <a href="https://www.lohnsteuer-kompakt.de/en/fag/2025/2737/wie_werden_gewinne_und_verluste_aus_bitcoins_steuerlich_behandelt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lohnsteuer kompakt</a>. Staking rewards themselves are taxed as income, with a small EUR 256 annual exemption.</p>

<p>Portugal ended its reputation as a crypto tax haven with the 2023 State Budget. Gains on crypto held under 365 days are taxed at a flat 28%; gains on assets held longer are exempt, per the <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/New-Portuguese-personal-income-tax-framework-%20crypto-assets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">International Bar Association</a>. The exemption does not apply where the investor or counterparty sits in a non-cooperative jurisdiction outside the EU and EEA, and crypto-to-crypto swaps defer tax by carrying the original cost forward.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">In half of these countries, the most important tax decision is not what you buy but the day you sell.</blockquote>

<h2>Gulf and Asia: zero, conditional zero, and a big cut coming</h2>

<p>The UAE levies no personal income tax, so individuals pay nothing on crypto gains. Businesses are different: crypto income can fall under the 9% federal corporate tax, while Cabinet Decision No. 100 of 2024 extended the VAT exemption to the exchange, custody and management of virtual assets, as Crowdfund Insider reported. Our guide to UAE crypto regulation covers the licensing side.</p>

<p>Singapore has no capital gains tax, but that is not a blanket exemption. Gains that are capital in nature are untaxed; profits from what looks like a trading business are taxable income, decided by the "badges of trade" such as frequency, holding period and intent, as <a href="https://ey.com/en_sg/you-and-the-taxman/key-tax-considerations-when-transacting-in-digital-tokens" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EY Singapore</a> explains.</p>

<p>Japan is about to change the most. Crypto gains are currently lumped into miscellaneous income and taxed at progressive rates reaching 55%. On 15 July 2026 the Diet finished passing amendments that reclassify crypto under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act and set up separate taxation at an effective rate of about 20%, with three-year loss carry-forward. <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/408361/japan-passes-key-bill" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reports</a> the tax change is expected to take effect in January 2028.</p>

<h2>Australia and Canada: the half-gain systems</h2>

<p>Both countries end up taxing roughly half a long-term gain, by different routes. Australia treats crypto as property for capital gains purposes and gives individuals a 50% discount on assets held more than 12 months, as described by Digital Surge. Swaps, spending and gifting all trigger a taxable event. A narrow personal-use exemption exists for crypto under A$10,000 bought to spend directly on personal items.</p>

<p>Canada includes half of any capital gain in taxable income regardless of holding period. A proposal to raise that to two-thirds was cancelled on 21 March 2025, and current rates remain unchanged, according to <a href="https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en-ca/expert-insights/changes-to-capital-gains-inclusion-rate-deferred-to-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wolters Kluwer</a>. Frequent traders in both countries risk having profits treated as fully taxable business income instead.</p>

<h2>Worked example: the same 10,000 gain in eight places</h2>

<p>Take a gain of 10,000 units of local currency on coins held 14 months, realised by an individual investor (not a trader) with other income already using up their lowest bands. Surcharges, state taxes and credits are ignored.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>India:</b> Rs 10,00,000 gain at 30% plus 4% cess = <b>Rs 3,12,000</b>. If the sale value was Rs 25 lakh, Rs 25,000 of 1% TDS would already have been deducted and credited against this.</li>
<li><b>United States:</b> $10,000 long-term gain at the 15% rate = <b>$1,500</b>.</li>
<li><b>United Kingdom:</b> GBP 10,000 minus GBP 3,000 exempt amount = GBP 7,000 at 24% = <b>GBP 1,680</b>.</li>
<li><b>Germany:</b> held more than one year = <b>EUR 0</b>.</li>
<li><b>Portugal:</b> held more than 365 days = <b>EUR 0</b>. At 10 months it would be EUR 2,800.</li>
<li><b>Australia:</b> A$10,000 halved to A$5,000, added to income at the investor's marginal rate.</li>
<li><b>Canada:</b> C$5,000 included in income at the marginal rate.</li>
<li><b>Japan:</b> today taxed as miscellaneous income at up to 55%; under the planned regime about 20%, or roughly <b>JPY 200,000</b> on a JPY 1,000,000 gain.</li>
</ul>

<p>The spread is enormous: from zero to nearly a third of the gain for an identical trade. That is exactly why tax authorities have spent four years building a shared reporting system.</p>

<h2>CARF: the end of quiet offshore accounts</h2>

<p>The OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) requires exchanges, brokers and similar providers to collect tax residency details from customers and report their transactions, which tax authorities then swap with each other. By the OECD's December 2025 report, 75 jurisdictions had made a political commitment to implement it, <a href="https://coingeek.com/oecd-vast-majority-of-digital-asset-centers-join-global-tax-rules/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CoinGeek reported</a>. For the first wave, providers began collecting information on 1 January 2026 so that exchanges can start in 2027; the UK, Japan, Germany, Portugal and Canada were in the 2027 group and Singapore and the UAE in the 2028 group as of a May 2025 update tracked by Taina.</p>

<p>India moved from absentee to implementer. Under section 509 of the Income-tax Act, 2025 and new rules, reporting crypto service providers must cover calendar years from 1 January 2026, finish due diligence on existing users by 31 December 2026, and file the first Form 167 by 31 May 2027, according to a <a href="https://www.khaitanco.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/ERGO_Crypto%20Asset%20Reporting%20Obligations_12%20August%202026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khaitan and Co note</a>. Penalties run to Rs 200 a day for late statements and Rs 50,000 for inaccurate ones.</p>

<p>Our view: CARF matters more than any rate change in this table. For a decade, an Indian or British resident could hold coins on a foreign exchange and the home tax office had little idea. From 2027 that data will flow automatically between most major jurisdictions. Anyone who changes residency, for instance on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/">moving back to India</a>, should expect both countries to see the trail. The same customer data underpins the anti-money laundering checks covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">Travel Rule explainer</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>31 October 2026:</b> Australian self-lodged returns for the 2025-26 year are due.</li>
<li><b>31 December 2026:</b> Indian crypto providers must finish CARF due diligence on pre-existing users.</li>
<li><b>Early 2027:</b> the first US Forms 1099-DA showing cost basis for assets acquired in 2026.</li>
<li><b>31 May 2027:</b> first Indian Form 167 CARF filings for calendar year 2026; first-wave CARF exchanges between tax authorities through 2027.</li>
<li><b>January 2028:</b> Japan's expected switch to separate taxation at about 20%.</li>
<li><b>2028:</b> second-wave CARF exchanges, with Singapore and the UAE among the jurisdictions scheduled to begin.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article compares tax rules for general information only and is not tax advice. Rules depend on residency, activity and individual circumstances; check with a qualified tax adviser in your jurisdiction before acting.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/crypto-tax-by-country-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Purpose-Bound Money Explained: Singapore&#x27;s PBM and Smart Subsidies</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/purpose-bound-money-explained/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>Purpose-bound money attaches spending rules to digital cash. How MAS built PBM via Project Orchid, how it compares with e-RUPI and vouchers, and the risks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/purpose-bound-money-explained.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In November 2022, visitors to the Singapore FinTech Festival could scan a QR code and receive a voucher worth 20 digital Singapore dollars, spendable at selected food outlets. When they bought lunch, the hawker did not receive a voucher. The stall received plain tokenised money, almost instantly, with no reconciliation file to send to anyone. That small trial, run by DBS with the government's Open Government Products team, is the clearest demonstration of what the Monetary Authority of Singapore calls purpose-bound money: rules that ride on top of money, and fall away once the rules are met.</p>

<p>It sounds like a technical footnote. It is actually a new answer to one of the oldest questions in public finance: how do you give someone money that can only be spent on what it was meant for, without building a separate bureaucracy for every scheme?</p>

<h2>What purpose-bound money is, and what it is not</h2>

<p>The phrase "programmable money" causes confusion because it implies the money itself changes. PBM is designed to avoid that. In the MAS model, there are two layers:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>The money underneath.</b> A digital form of an ordinary currency: tokenised bank deposits, a regulated stablecoin, or, in trials, wholesale central bank money. It stays fully fungible.</li>
<li><b>The conditions on top.</b> A wrapper that says who can receive it, where it can be spent, and until when. Validity periods and permitted merchant types were the examples MAS gave when it published its PBM whitepaper in June 2023, as <a href="https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/monetary-authority-of-singapore-proposes-standards-for-digital-money-2023621/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported by Mondo Visione</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>When the conditions are satisfied, for example when a recipient pays an approved merchant, the wrapper is removed and the merchant receives unrestricted money. That is the key design choice. A merchant does not want a pile of tokens that only work in one scheme. A merchant wants money.</p>

<p>This separation matters for anyone comparing PBM with central bank digital currencies. PBM is not a CBDC and does not require one. It is a protocol that can sit on top of several kinds of digital money, which is why MAS later built it into infrastructure that also handles tokenised deposits and regulated stablecoins. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised deposits</a> sets out those layers.</p>

<h2>How Singapore built it, step by step</h2>

<p>Singapore's route to PBM ran through Project Orchid, MAS's exploration of a digital Singapore dollar.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>November 2022: four live trials.</b> Announced at the FinTech Festival, the trials covered disbursements by DBS and Open Government Products, commercial vouchers by Temasek, FAZZ and Grab, government payouts to unbanked recipients by OCBC with the Central Provident Fund Board, and SkillsFuture grants released by UOB to training providers once eligibility conditions were met, <a href="https://techwireasia.com/2022/11/singapore-kickstarts-purpose-bound-digital-currency-trial-at-fintech-festival/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Tech Wire Asia</a>.</li>
<li><b>June 2023: the PBM whitepaper.</b> Developed with the IMF, Banca d'Italia and the Bank of Korea plus industry participants, it set out a lifecycle from issuance to redemption, an interface to the digital currencies underneath, and open-source code. Pilots tested escrow for online commerce with Amazon, FAZZ and Grab, and programmable rewards with DBS, Grab, FAZZ, NETS and UOB, as <a href="https://forkast.news/headlines/singapore-purpose-bound-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forkast</a> also covered.</li>
<li><b>November 2023: the Orchid Blueprint.</b> MAS described four building blocks for a digital money system: a settlement ledger, a tokenisation bridge to existing account systems, a programmability protocol using PBM, and a name service to replace wallet addresses with readable identifiers, <a href="https://www.electronicpaymentsinternational.com/?p=67818" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electronic Payments International reported</a>.</li>
<li><b>October 2025: BLOOM.</b> MAS launched an initiative to extend settlement using tokenised bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins across G10 and Asian currencies, with programmable compliance controls and preset rules for agent-initiated payments. The consortium includes Circle, DBS, OCBC, UOB, Partior, Stripe, Coinbase, Ant International and StraitsX, <a href="https://charltonsquantum.com/mas-bloom-initiative-expand-settlement-capabilities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Charltons Quantum</a>.</li>
</ol>

<p>The direction is telling. PBM started as a tool for government vouchers and ended up as a general-purpose control layer for wholesale payments and even <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/">AI agents</a>. The government use case was the proving ground.</p>

<h2>Purpose-binding already exists. What changes?</h2>

<p>Restricted money is not new. Food stamps, school vouchers, gift cards and India's fertiliser subsidies all bind money to a purpose. India even has a digital version: NPCI's <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/e-rupi/product-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">e-RUPI</a>, a prepaid voucher sent by SMS or QR code for a specific purpose and redeemed at participating merchants, built with the Department of Financial Services and the National Health Authority. We cover it in detail in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/">e-RUPI digital vouchers</a>.</p>

<p>What PBM changes is the cost of each new scheme. Open Government Products, which ran Singapore's RedeemSG voucher system for campaigns including CDC vouchers, has written that the old model had three problems: high implementation cost per scheme, slow and costly merchant settlement, and heavy contracting effort, as its <a href="https://opengovsg.substack.com/p/reimagining-government-payouts-with-programmable-money-p1-eb417a9d3fe3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">engineering blog</a> explained. Under RedeemSG, merchants could be paid the next day. In the PBM trial, settlement was near-instant, against one to two days for conventional voucher reimbursements, according to The Edge Singapore, which also noted the pilot could later extend to Singapore's 28,000 coffee shops, hawker centres and restaurants.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Instrument</th><th>Spending restriction</th><th>Merchant receives</th><th>Settlement</th><th>New scheme setup</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Cash transfer (DBT)</td><td>None</td><td>Cash or account credit</td><td>Immediate</td><td>Low</td></tr>
<tr><td>Paper voucher</td><td>Merchant list, expiry</td><td>Voucher to reclaim</td><td>Days to weeks</td><td>High: printing, claims</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gift PPI in India</td><td>Issuer network; max ₹10,000; not reloadable</td><td>Card or wallet payment</td><td>Card or wallet cycle</td><td>Medium</td></tr>
<tr><td>e-RUPI voucher</td><td>Purpose and merchant set by issuer</td><td>Bank credit via acquirer</td><td>Bank settlement cycle</td><td>Medium: sponsor bank</td></tr>
<tr><td>Purpose-bound money</td><td>Coded conditions: who, where, when</td><td>Unrestricted digital money</td><td>Near-instant in trials</td><td>Low once the rail exists</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The gift PPI rules come from the RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=12156" target="_blank" rel="noopener">master direction on prepaid payment instruments</a>, which caps gift instruments at ₹10,000, bars reloading, and allows no cash-out except back to the source account.</p>

<h2>Worked example: a uniform subsidy, two ways</h2>

<p>Consider a hypothetical state scheme that gives ₹1,500 for school uniforms to each of 2,00,000 students. The budget is ₹30 crore.</p>

<p><b>As a cash DBT:</b> ₹30 crore is credited to parents' accounts in one day. The state has no idea how much buys uniforms. Some will go to rent or debt repayment, which may be a perfectly reasonable household choice.</p>

<p><b>As a PBM voucher:</b> The same ₹30 crore is issued as vouchers valid at, say, 400 registered tailors and uniform shops, expiring after 90 days. Three numbers now decide whether the scheme works:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Redemption rate.</b> Unspent vouchers return to the treasury. If redemption is 85%, ₹25.5 crore reaches shops and ₹4.5 crore lapses. Is that a saving or a failure? It depends on whether students simply could not find an approved shop.</li>
<li><b>Merchant coverage.</b> With 400 shops and 2,00,000 students, each shop serves 500 students on average. In a rural block with one approved tailor, the restriction becomes a queue.</li>
<li><b>Merchant cash flow.</b> A tailor who fills 500 orders at ₹1,500 has ₹7.5 lakh tied up. Near-instant settlement instead of a reimbursement claim is the difference between buying cloth on credit and buying it outright.</li>
</ul>

<p>India's existing voucher data shows why the first number is not academic. NPCI's published e-RUPI statistics, which give vouchers created and redeemed by issuing bank, show about 2.94 lakh vouchers created and about 45,000 redeemed across six banks, roughly 15% by count. The page does not give a period or values, so it is not a precise redemption rate, but it is a warning that issuing a voucher and getting it spent are different achievements.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Every condition you code into money is a new way for the money not to arrive.</blockquote>

<h2>The risks are mostly about people, not code</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Exclusion by design.</b> A restriction that excludes the wrong merchant, or expires before a harvest-season shopping trip, removes value from exactly the households a scheme targets.</li>
<li><b>Fungibility.</b> If a family already spends more than the voucher on food, binding the voucher to food changes nothing; it simply frees cash for something else. Restrictions only bind when the subsidy exceeds normal spending.</li>
<li><b>Paternalism.</b> Households usually know their own priorities better than a scheme designer does. PBM makes it cheap to override that judgement, which is a political temptation as much as a technical feature.</li>
<li><b>Privacy.</b> A programmable voucher can, by design, record where every rupee or dollar was spent. Who sees that trail is a governance question we take up in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">the CBDC privacy debate</a>.</li>
<li><b>Merchant capture.</b> Approved-merchant lists create rents. Whoever controls onboarding controls a guaranteed customer base.</li>
</ul>

<p>The strongest case for PBM is narrow and real: business-to-government flows such as grants released to a training provider once a course is completed, escrow in procurement, and subsidies to merchants that are now settled through slow claims. The weakest case is restricting what poor households can buy.</p>

<h2>What this means for India</h2>

<p>India already has most of the pieces: a voucher instrument in e-RUPI, a prepaid instrument framework at the RBI, and a retail e-rupee pilot in which programmability has been part of the RBI's testing agenda. What it lacks is a single protocol that lets a ministry define conditions once and have them work across banks, wallets and merchants. Our analysis of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/">programmable e-rupee use cases</a> looks at where that is heading. The DBT system shows the stakes: India moves tens of lakh crore through cash-style transfers. Even a small shift toward conditional instruments would be the largest PBM deployment anywhere.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Singapore FinTech Festival, November 2026.</b> MAS announced both the 2022 trials and the 2023 Orchid Blueprint at the festival; expect updates on BLOOM trials and any government payout using PBM.</li>
<li><b>BLOOM trial results.</b> Watch whether programmable compliance controls go live in cross-border corporate payments during 2026-27, which would be PBM's first large commercial use.</li>
<li><b>India's Union Budget, expected 1 February 2027.</b> Any announcement on conditional or voucher-based delivery for health, fertiliser or education subsidies would point toward purpose-bound designs.</li>
<li><b>RBI e-rupee pilot updates.</b> Programmability features tested in the retail pilot are the most likely route for PBM-style instruments in India.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains payment designs and public policy. It is not legal or financial advice.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/purpose-bound-money-explained.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>The Future of Payments to 2030: 10 Trends Backed by BCG, McKinsey, BIS</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-payments-2030/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-payments-2030/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Ten payment trends to watch through 2030, from instant payments and stablecoins to AI agents, CBDCs, embedded finance and biometrics, with the data behind each.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-payments-2030.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Predictions about payments tend to age badly. In 2016 plenty of people expected cards to be dead by now, and in 2021 others expected every central bank to have a digital currency. So rather than another list of buzzwords, here are ten trends where the data already shows movement, each with a concrete sign to watch between now and 2030. We have tried to say where we think the hype outruns the evidence.</p>

<h2>The big picture: slower revenue, faster change</h2>
<p>Boston Consulting Group's 2025 Global Payments Report estimated global payments revenue at $1.9 trillion in 2024 and projected $2.4 trillion by 2029. That sounds like growth, but the annual rate is expected to slow to about 4%, from 8.8% since 2019, according to <a href="https://bcg.com/press/22september2025-reshape-global-payments-landscape" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BCG</a>. The fastest growth is projected in Latin America (7.9% a year) and the Middle East and Africa (6.8%). In short, the industry is getting bigger more slowly while the plumbing changes faster.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$2.4T</b><span>payments revenue by 2029, BCG</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$390B</b><span>real stablecoin payments in 2025, McKinsey</span></div><div class="stat"><b>40%</b><span>growth in real-time A2A volumes, 2024</span></div></div>

<h2>Rails: instant at home, linked abroad</h2>
<p><b>1. Instant account-to-account becomes the default.</b> Real-time account-to-account volumes rose 40% globally in 2024 and now make up about a quarter of digital retail payments, BCG found, with more than half of transactions in India and Brazil already running on such systems. BCG expects adoption in the Middle East and Africa to pass 50% by 2030. Watch whether merchants in Europe and the US start steering customers away from cards. Our primers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix</a> show how this happened in two countries.</p>

<p><b>2. Domestic rails get linked across borders.</b> The next step is connecting those national systems. Project Nexus, incubated by the BIS, aims to link instant payment systems in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and India, with Indonesia joining in 2026, so cross-border payments settle in 60 seconds or less, reaching a market of 1.7 billion people in its first wave. The sign to watch: real consumer volumes, not just announcements.</p>

<h2>Money itself: stablecoins and tokenised deposits</h2>
<p><b>3. Stablecoins grow up, from trading to payments.</b> BCG's 2025 report counted $26 trillion in annual stablecoin transaction volume, but only about 1% of it was real-world payments. A joint McKinsey and Artemis analysis put actual stablecoin payments at $390 billion in 2025, with business-to-business transfers the largest slice at $226 billion, according to <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/stablecoins-find-their-niche" target="_blank" rel="noopener">McKinsey</a>. That is still a tiny share of global payments. With the US GENIUS Act and EU MiCA in force, the question for 2030 is whether that share grows tenfold or a hundredfold. See our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report</a>.</p>

<p><b>4. Tokenised bank money and the BIS counter-vision.</b> Central banks are not ceding the ground. The BIS argued in its 2025 annual report that stablecoins fail three tests for sound money: singleness, elasticity and integrity. It proposed tokenised platforms built around central bank reserves, commercial bank money and government bonds, as reported by <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/359518/bis-stablecoins-tests-moniness-tokenization-circle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. By 2030, we expect both models to coexist, with tokenised deposits winning inside banks and stablecoins winning at the edges.</p>

<h2>Who presses pay: AI agents</h2>
<p><b>5. AI agents start paying.</b> Visa launched Visa Intelligent Commerce in April 2025, and by late 2025 both Visa and Mastercard had frameworks for transactions initiated by AI agents. In June 2026 Visa announced it would integrate payments into OpenAI products, while Mastercard unveiled tools for machine-to-machine payments, as covered by <a href="https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/06/12/visa-openai-agent-led-payments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Commerce 360</a>. McKinsey estimates agentic commerce could reach $1 trillion of US retail sales by 2030. We think that number is optimistic; trust, liability and refunds are unsolved. More in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/">agentic payments</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The hardest question for AI agents is not how to pay, but who is liable when they pay for the wrong thing.</blockquote>

<h2>Central banks: CBDCs find narrower jobs</h2>
<p><b>6. CBDCs narrow to specific jobs.</b> Retail central bank digital currencies have mostly struggled for users where good private options exist. The digital euro project continues, China's e-CNY keeps expanding pilots, and India's e-rupee is testing offline and programmable uses. By 2030, we expect CBDCs to matter most in wholesale settlement and cross-border pilots rather than in shoppers' pockets. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">CBDC tracker</a> follows the details.</p>

<h2>Invisible finance: embedded, tokenised, faster</h2>
<p><b>7. Embedded finance becomes invisible.</b> Payments are moving inside software that is not a bank: accounting tools, ride-hailing apps, marketplaces. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and World Economic Forum's 2025 Future of Global Fintech study, covering about 250 firms, found 84% of fintechs collaborate with incumbent institutions, most often through API integrations. That is the infrastructure of embedded finance. The sign to watch: whether customers can tell, or care, who the regulated entity is.</p>

<p><b>8. Passwords give way to biometrics and tokens.</b> Mastercard committed in 2024 to 100% tokenisation of e-commerce transactions in Europe by 2030, replacing card numbers with tokens and one-time passwords with biometric passkeys. It said tokenisation already secured a quarter of global e-commerce transactions. Expect typing a 16-digit number online to feel as dated as signing a receipt by 2030.</p>

<p><b>9. Fintech revenue keeps outgrowing incumbents.</b> BCG found payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024, growing about 23% a year, with top performers expanding three times as fast as incumbents. That pressure will keep fees on cross-border transfers and merchant acquiring under strain. Payments fintechs already make up 45% of total fintech revenue in BCG's count, and they have attracted more than $135 billion in equity funding over 25 years. Some of that capital will be wasted; enough of it will force incumbents to cut prices that have been stable for decades.</p>

<h2>Households: bills get rebuilt</h2>
<p><b>10. Bills and recurring payments get rebuilt.</b> The least discussed trend may matter most to households: recurring payments. Instant rails, request-to-pay and open banking make it possible to pay utilities, rent and school fees on the due date, from anywhere, without card fees. A welder in Jeddah paying his family's water bill in Madurai, or a student in Dublin paying rent from a parent's account, are the kinds of use cases that move from awkward workarounds to standard features. We explore this in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-bill-payments/">the future of bill payments</a>.</p>

<h2>What we would bet on</h2>
<p>If we had to pick three for 2030: instant account-to-account becomes normal in most large economies; stablecoins become a standard tool for business and cross-border settlement but remain a small share of consumer spending; and agents start paying for low-risk, repeat purchases first. The rest will move, just more slowly than the conference slides suggest.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/future-of-payments-2030.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Employee Benefits Across Borders: Health, Pensions and Pay Access</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/employee-benefits-across-borders/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/employee-benefits-across-borders/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>How health cover, pensions and pay access work for staff abroad in 2026: 10.1% medical inflation, India&#x27;s 19 social security pacts, UAE gratuity rules.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/employee-benefits-across-borders.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A software architect from Hyderabad has spent six years in Texas on a work visa. Every month, a slice of her salary has gone to US Social Security. If her employer moves her back to Bengaluru next spring, she may leave with nothing to show for it, because she will not have reached the ten years of coverage the US system requires. Her colleague, posted from the same Indian company to Frankfurt for four years, faces no such loss. Germany and India have a social security agreement. The US and India do not.</p>

<p>That gap captures the core problem with employee benefits across borders. Salaries move easily between countries. Benefits mostly do not. Health insurance, pensions, gratuity and even the timing of pay are built on national systems, and every international hire or posting creates a seam where value can leak out. This piece looks at four of those seams, with the numbers attached.</p>

<h2>Health cover: double-digit inflation, three years running</h2>

<p>The single biggest benefit cost for most international employers is medical cover, and it is rising fast. Insurers surveyed for the Mercer Marsh Benefits Health Trends report project a global medical trend rate of 10.1% for 2026, the third straight year in double digits, according to a summary by <a href="https://www.hcamag.com/ca/specialization/benefits/employers-bracing-for-steep-medical-cost-increases-and-widening-coverage-gaps-in-2026-report/553951" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HR Reporter</a>. The survey covered more than 268 insurers in 67 markets. Eight in ten cited general inflation as a driver and seven in ten rising use of services.</p>

<p>Cost is only half the story. The same insurers said existing plans fall short in two areas that matter most to an internationally mobile workforce: 68% said plans do not adequately cover prevention and treatment of chronic conditions such as diabetes and heart disease, and 54% said mental health coverage was inadequate. For a worker relocated away from family, mental health support is not an add-on. It is often the benefit that determines whether the posting succeeds.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>10.1%</b><span>global medical trend rate, 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>54%</b><span>insurers saying mental health cover falls short</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$3B</b><span>paid yearly by Indian workers into US Social Security</span></div></div>

<p>The practical consequence for employers is a choice between local plans in each country, which are cheaper but uneven, and international private medical insurance, which gives consistent cover but costs more and inflates faster. Many mid-sized firms end up with a mix: local plans for locally hired staff and international cover for those on assignment.</p>

<h2>Pensions: where totalisation agreements decide everything</h2>

<p>Pension contributions are where cross-border careers lose the most money, and the reason is structural. Most state pension systems require a minimum number of years before any benefit is paid. A worker who contributes for fewer years than that, then leaves, often forfeits the lot. Social security agreements fix this in three ways: detachment, which exempts a posted worker from the host country's system for a set period; totalisation, which counts years in both countries toward eligibility; and portability, which pays the benefit wherever the retiree lives.</p>

<p>India has signed 20 such agreements, of which 19 are in force, according to the <a href="https://www.epfindia.gov.in:443/site_docs/PDFs/Updates/Brochure_on_International_Workers_17082022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EPFO brochure on international workers</a>. They cover most of Western Europe, Canada, Quebec, Australia, Japan and South Korea. Detachment periods are mostly five years, with Germany at four and Sweden at two. The Brazil agreement has been signed but was not in force when the brochure was issued. To claim the exemption, a posted worker needs a certificate of coverage from EPFO; without one, the worker can end up paying into both systems at once.</p>

<h3>The missing agreement</h3>

<p>The largest hole is the United States. Indian workers pay roughly $3 billion a year into US Social Security, and about $27.6 billion over the past decade, according to figures reported by <a href="https://visionias.in/current-affairs/upsc-daily-news-summary/article/2025-11-17/business-standard/international-relations/bta-talks-india-proposes-uk-style-totalisation-agreement-with-us" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard via Vision IAS</a> in November 2025. Many on temporary visas never reach the 40 quarters, or ten years, needed to qualify. A <a href="https://www.policycircle.org/opinion/social-security-agreement-us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Policy Circle analysis</a> notes that Indian nationals received 72.3% of H-1B visas issued in fiscal 2023, so the issue falls overwhelmingly on one community.</p>

<p>India has proposed a deal modelled on the Double Contributions Convention it signed with the UK on 24 July 2025 alongside their trade agreement, which exempts Indian workers and their employers from UK contributions for up to three years on temporary assignments. Our view is that a US agreement would be worth more to Indian professionals than most tariff concessions under discussion, and that it deserves more public attention than it gets.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Benefit</th><th>Where value leaks</th><th>Current fix</th><th>Gap that remains</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Health cover</td><td>Local plans vary; 10.1% trend in 2026</td><td>International medical insurance for mobile staff</td><td>Mental health and chronic care coverage</td></tr>
<tr><td>State pension</td><td>Minimum-years rules forfeit short careers</td><td>19 India agreements in force; UK convention signed</td><td>No India-US agreement</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gratuity / end of service</td><td>Lump sum paid only on leaving the job, often uninvested</td><td>UAE voluntary savings scheme since 2023</td><td>Voluntary for employers</td></tr>
<tr><td>Pay timing</td><td>Monthly pay cycle versus daily expenses</td><td>Earned wage access, about $106 per advance in US data</td><td>Fees equal to high APRs on short advances</td></tr>
<tr><td>Money sent home</td><td>Average 6.36% cost to send $200</td><td>Some employers subsidise transfers</td><td>Rarely treated as a formal benefit</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Gratuity reinvented: the UAE savings scheme</h2>

<p>In the Gulf, the main retirement benefit for expatriate workers is end-of-service gratuity, a lump sum paid when a job ends. The weakness is that the money sits on the employer's books for years, earns nothing for the worker, and is exposed if the employer fails. The UAE's answer, under Cabinet Resolution No. 96 of 2023, is a voluntary alternative in which employers pay monthly contributions into licensed investment funds instead, as set out in an <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/uae-introduces-voluntary-alternative-end-of-service-benefits-sch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EY tax alert</a>.</p>

<h3>Worked example: AED 10,000 basic salary</h3>

<p>The employer contribution is 5.83% of basic monthly salary for the first five years of service and 8.33% after that. On a basic salary of AED 10,000, that is AED 583 a month, or AED 6,996 a year, for years one to five. From year six, it rises to AED 833 a month, or AED 9,996 a year. Over the first five years, that adds up to AED 34,980 in employer contributions, invested from the month they are paid rather than handed over in one lump at the end. Employees can top up with voluntary contributions of up to 25% of total salary, and default funds go into a capital-guaranteed option if no choice is made.</p>

<p>For a worker <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">sending most of their income home</a> to family in Kerala or Dhaka, the difference between a gratuity paid after ten years and a funded account built monthly is significant, both in returns and in protection against an employer's insolvency. Workers should check the fund terms and any tax implications in their home country with a qualified adviser. Our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-wage-protection-system-payroll-cards/">Gulf wage protection and payroll cards</a> looks at the payroll rails that sit underneath these schemes.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Salaries cross borders in seconds. Pension rights can take a treaty and a decade.</blockquote>

<h2>Earned wage access: cash flow as a benefit</h2>

<p>A newer category of benefit is about when pay arrives rather than how much. Earned wage access lets workers draw part of their already-earned pay before payday. The most detailed public data comes from the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which found that in 2022 employer-partnered providers handled an estimated $22.8 billion across 214 million transactions for 7.2 million workers, as reported in its <a href="https://compliancealliance.com/news-events/entry/data-spotlight-developments-in-the-paycheck-advance-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data spotlight on the paycheck advance market</a>.</p>

<p>The average advance was about $106, taken roughly ten days before payday, and the average fee on a fee-bearing transaction was $3.18. That sounds small. Annualised, the CFPB calculated, a $3.18 fee on a $106 advance repaid in ten days is equivalent to an APR of about 109.5%. Users averaged 27 advances a year and about $69 in annual fees. Charge-off rates for employer-partnered products were just 0.3%, because repayment comes straight out of payroll.</p>

<p>The regulatory view has swung back and forth. In late December 2025, the CFPB issued an advisory opinion stating that covered earned wage access is not credit under federal lending rules, provided advances are limited to wages already earned, recovered through payroll deduction, and come with no recourse against the worker, according to <a href="https://www.dwt.com/blogs/financial-services-law-advisor/2026/01/cfpb-revisits-2020-opinion-earned-wage-access" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Davis Wright Tremaine</a>. That withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have treated most such products as loans. Our view: employer-paid access with no per-transaction fee is a genuine benefit. Fee-per-use access paid by the worker is a financial product, and employers offering it should say so plainly.</p>

<h2>Remittance as a benefit nobody counts</h2>

<p>For millions of migrant workers, the most important financial event of the month is not payday. It is the transfer home that follows it. The World Bank's global average cost of sending $200 was 6.36% in the third quarter of 2025, as covered in our analysis of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home</a>.</p>

<p>Run the numbers for a worker sending $400 a month at that average cost. That is about $25 a month, or roughly $305 a year, in fees and FX margin. An employer that pays salaries directly into a low-cost transfer channel, or splits payroll so part lands in a home-country account, effectively hands that worker a few hundred dollars a year at little cost to itself. Very few benefits budgets count this, yet for a worker on a modest wage it can be worth more than a gym membership or a meal allowance. For the regulatory side of sending money to India, see our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> the next Health Trends survey, which will show whether the medical trend rate stays in double digits for a fourth year from 10.1%.</li>
<li><b>Through 2026-27:</b> India-US trade negotiations, where a totalisation agreement on the UK model is on India's list. Any deal would affect roughly $3 billion a year in contributions.</li>
<li><b>January 2027:</b> new US state legislative sessions, where several states are expected to debate earned wage access rules after the CFPB's December 2025 opinion.</li>
<li><b>2026-27:</b> entry into force of the India-UK trade agreement, which brings the Double Contributions Convention and its three-year exemption into operation.</li>
</ul>

<p>For workers planning a return, our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/">moving-back-to-India money checklist</a> covers what to do with foreign pension and provident fund balances.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/employee-benefits-across-borders.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Self-Custody vs Custodial Wallets: Keeping Your Stablecoins Safe</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Guides</category><description>Self-custody or custodial wallet? A plain guide to seed phrases, MPC and smart wallets, account recovery and the security habits that protect regular people.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p>
<p class="lede">The crypto slogan says "not your keys, not your coins". It is true, and it is also the reason many people have lost money. Holding your own keys protects you from a failing exchange, but it makes you the bank, the security guard and the customer helpline all at once. For someone who just wants to receive dollars from a client abroad or keep savings in a stable currency, the right answer usually sits somewhere in between. Here is how to think about it.</p>

<h2>The two basic models</h2>
<p>Every wallet answers one question: who controls the private key that authorises spending?</p>
<ul>
  <li><b>Custodial.</b> A company holds the keys and shows you a balance, like a bank. Exchanges and most payment apps work this way. If you forget your password, you reset it. If the company fails or freezes your account, you may be stuck.</li>
  <li><b>Self-custody.</b> You hold the key, traditionally backed up as a 12- or 24-word seed phrase. Nobody can freeze or lose your funds except you. Nobody can rescue you either.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Why custodial risk is real</h2>
<p>The case for self-custody was written in late 2022. FTX, valued at up to $32 billion earlier that year, collapsed after it emerged that customer money had been funnelled to its trading affiliate. Its founder was later convicted of defrauding customers of at least $8 billion, as Reuters reported. Customers who thought they owned coins on the platform were in fact unsecured creditors.</p>
<p>Exchanges are also targets. In February 2025 attackers linked to North Korea stole about $1.5 billion from the exchange Bybit by tampering with the web interface of the multi-signature wallet software its staff used, so that signers approved a transaction that looked routine, according to <a href="https://thehackernews.com/2025/02/bybit-hack-traced-to-safewallet-supply.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hacker News</a>. The method is a warning for anyone who approves transactions on a screen.</p>

<h2>Why self-custody risk is real too</h2>
<div class="stat-row">
  <div class="stat"><b>$3.4B</b><span>stolen in crypto hacks in 2025, per Chainalysis</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>158,000</b><span>personal wallet compromises in 2025</span></div>
  <div class="stat"><b>$713M</b><span>stolen from individuals' wallets in 2025</span></div>
</div>
<p>Chainalysis counted 158,000 compromises of personal wallets in 2025, affecting at least 80,000 people and costing them about $713 million, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/382477/crypto-hack-2025-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. Most were not clever hacks. They were phishing links, fake support agents, malicious browser extensions and seed phrases typed into the wrong website. A delivery rider in Sharjah who keeps his seed phrase in a photo on his phone is one cloud-account breach away from losing everything.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Most people do not lose crypto to hackers. They lose it to a convincing message and a moment of hurry.</blockquote>

<h2>The middle ground: MPC and smart wallets</h2>
<p>The good news is that wallet design has moved on from "one secret phrase or nothing". Two technologies now give regular people self-custody with safety nets.</p>
<h3>MPC wallets</h3>
<p>Multi-party computation splits the key into several shares held on different devices or servers. As <a href="https://www.fireblocks.com/what-is-mpc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fireblocks explains</a>, the full key is never assembled in one place; signing a payment requires several shares to cooperate, so stealing one share is useless. Consumer MPC wallets typically keep one share on your phone and another with the provider or in your cloud backup, letting you recover access without a seed phrase while the provider still cannot move funds alone.</p>
<h3>Smart wallets</h3>
<p>Smart contract wallets turn the account itself into a small program with rules. Coinbase launched one in June 2024 that uses passkeys, the same fingerprint or face login your phone uses for websites, instead of a seed phrase. Since Ethereum's Pectra upgrade in May 2025, ordinary accounts can also borrow smart-wallet features. These wallets can add spending limits, trusted contacts who help you recover, and sponsored fees so you do not need to hold a separate token for gas.</p>
<p>There is a caution here. When the Pectra feature went live, security researchers flagged that a large share of early delegations were linked to phishing contracts. New powers create new tricks.</p>

<h2>Which is right for you?</h2>
<table class="cmp">
<thead><tr><th>Option</th><th>Recovery if you lose your phone</th><th>Main risk</th><th>Good for</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Custodial app or exchange</td><td>Password reset, ID check</td><td>Company failure, account freeze</td><td>Beginners, small balances, frequent cash-outs</td></tr>
<tr><td>Seed-phrase wallet</td><td>Only with your seed phrase</td><td>Phishing, lost or exposed phrase</td><td>Experienced users who store backups offline</td></tr>
<tr><td>MPC wallet</td><td>Provider-assisted with your device or backup</td><td>Provider availability</td><td>Everyday users wanting control plus recovery</td></tr>
<tr><td>Smart or passkey wallet</td><td>Passkey sync or recovery contacts</td><td>New contract and phishing risks</td><td>Payments and app users on supported chains</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hardware wallet</td><td>Seed phrase backup</td><td>Physical loss, phrase exposure</td><td>Long-term savings</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Many people sensibly use two: a regulated custodial app for day-to-day sending and cashing out, and a self-custody wallet for savings. If you are holding stablecoins, check what your custodian does with them and whether it is licensed where you live; stablecoin laws now set rules for reserves and redemption, covered in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our GENIUS and MiCA guide</a>.</p>

<h2>Security habits that actually work</h2>
<ol>
  <li><b>Never type a seed phrase into a website or share it with anyone.</b> No real support agent will ask for it.</li>
  <li><b>Store backups offline.</b> Paper or metal in a safe place, not a screenshot, email or notes app.</li>
  <li><b>Turn on app-based two-factor authentication</b> for any custodial account, and avoid SMS codes where you can.</li>
  <li><b>Check addresses and amounts on the device screen</b> before approving, especially for large transfers. The Bybit theft worked because signers trusted what a compromised interface showed them.</li>
  <li><b>Send a small test first</b> to any new address.</li>
  <li><b>Revoke old approvals</b> you have given to apps and do not sign messages you do not understand.</li>
  <li><b>Be suspicious of urgency.</b> Fake investment platforms and "recovery services" are among the most common scams; see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">our money transfer scams guide</a>.</li>
</ol>
<p>The direction of travel is encouraging. Passkeys, MPC and recovery contacts are making self-custody feel more like a normal app, while regulation is making custodians more accountable. The goal for most people is not maximum control. It is a setup where one mistake does not cost you everything. If you are new to stablecoins, start with <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">what a stablecoin is</a>.</p>
<p class="note">This guide is general information, not a recommendation of any wallet or provider.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How Visa and Mastercard Settle in Stablecoins: 2026 Volumes Explained</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>How Visa and Mastercard use stablecoins to settle card payments: Visa&#x27;s $7B run rate, chains, Mastercard&#x27;s network and BVNK deal, issuers and what changes.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Every morning, a card programme in Buenos Aires owes Visa money for the coffees, groceries and taxi rides its customers bought the day before. For most of card history that bill was paid by bank wire, in dollars, on banking days only. Increasingly, it is paid in USDC on a public blockchain, on a Saturday if need be. By April 2026 Visa's stablecoin settlement was running at an annualised $7 billion, up 50% in a single quarter.</p>

<p>That number is still a sliver of Visa's business. It also signals something the payments industry argued about for years: the two biggest card networks are no longer treating stablecoins as a threat to be kept outside, but as a settlement asset to be pulled inside. Here is how it works, who uses it, how Visa and Mastercard differ, and what it changes for card issuers and their customers.</p>

<h2>What settlement means, and why it matters</h2>

<p>A card payment has three stages. Authorisation happens in a second at the till: the issuer approves or declines. Clearing follows, when transaction details are exchanged. Settlement is the actual movement of money between the card issuer, the network and the merchant's bank, the acquirer. The customer never sees it.</p>

<p>Traditionally, settlement runs through designated banks in fiat currency, follows banking hours and pauses on weekends and holidays. For a crypto card issuer whose customers hold stablecoins, that creates an awkward loop: sell stablecoins for dollars, wire the dollars to a settlement bank, wait. Stablecoin settlement removes the middle step. The issuer pays the network in stablecoins directly, and the network handles conversion for merchants who still want local currency. The merchant at the till in Bogota is paid in pesos exactly as before. We explained the consumer side in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">how crypto cards work</a>.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$7B</b><span>Visa stablecoin settlement run rate, April 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>9</b><span>blockchains in Visa's settlement programme</span></div><div class="stat"><b>160+</b><span>stablecoin card programmes with Visa, June 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>Visa's programme: from pilot to $7 billion</h2>

<p>Visa began settling with card issuers in USDC in 2023, starting in Latin America, then extended the option to Europe and Asia in 2024 and to regulated US partner banks in late 2025, according to an industry review by <a href="https://insights4vc.substack.com/p/the-state-of-stablecoin-cards" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insights4VC</a>. By late 2025 the run rate was about $3.5 billion a year. By 29 April 2026 it was $7 billion, across nine blockchains, as <a href="https://coin360.com/news/crypto-cards-stablecoin-payments-visa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coin360</a> reported from Visa's disclosures. Ethereum and Solana are among the named settlement chains. Visa is also working with Circle on Arc, a payments-focused blockchain.</p>

<p>Context matters. Visa processed $14.2 trillion in payment volume in fiscal 2025. Even at $7 billion a year, stablecoin settlement is about 0.05% of that. The growth rate, not the size, is the story.</p>

<p>Visa has also pushed on the issuing side. Stripe-owned Bridge launched Visa stablecoin cards in 18 countries in March 2026, with Argentina, Colombia and Mexico among the first, and plans for more than 100 countries by the end of 2026, as <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-card-monthly-volume-surge-230-one-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph</a> reported. By June 2026 Visa said it had more than 160 stablecoin-related card programmes live or in development, according to <a href="https://www.idnfinancials.com/digital-asset/67833/stablecoins-fund-70-of-1-04-billion-crypto-card-spending" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDN Financials</a>, citing CoinDesk.</p>

<h2>Mastercard's approach: networks, credentials and an acquisition</h2>

<p>Mastercard has taken a broader, more bank-oriented route. Its Multi-Token Network is a regulated blockchain environment for banks to move tokenised deposits and stablecoins. Its Crypto Credential adds an identity and compliance layer to blockchain transfers. It has run conversion and settlement pilots with Circle and Paxos, and the acquirer Nuvei lets merchants opt in to receive stablecoin settlement. Many of these remain at pilot stage.</p>

<p>The bigger move was corporate. Mastercard announced plans to acquire BVNK, a stablecoin payments infrastructure firm, for up to $1.8 billion, according to Coin360. That gives Mastercard in-house rails for stablecoin pay-ins and payouts, not just card settlement. For banks exploring tokenised money rather than stablecoins, Mastercard's network design is closer to what we describe in tokenised deposits.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Visa is putting stablecoins under its existing card machine. Mastercard is building a second machine for banks beside it.</blockquote>

<h2>Visa and Mastercard compared</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>Visa</th><th>Mastercard</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Settlement in stablecoins</td><td>Live since 2023; $7B run rate by April 2026</td><td>Pilots with Circle and Paxos; volumes not disclosed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Chains</td><td>Nine, including Ethereum and Solana</td><td>Multi-Token Network for banks; chains not specified</td></tr>
<tr><td>Share of crypto card spend</td><td>About 90%</td><td>Smaller, growing via exchange partnerships</td></tr>
<tr><td>Merchant side</td><td>Merchants paid in local currency as usual</td><td>Merchants can opt in to stablecoin settlement via some acquirers</td></tr>
<tr><td>Strategic bet</td><td>Stablecoin card issuance at scale, Bridge partnership</td><td>Tokenised deposits, identity layer, BVNK acquisition up to $1.8B</td></tr>
<tr><td>Acceptance</td><td>Over 175 million merchant locations</td><td>Over 150 million merchant locations</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Who actually uses it: the new card issuers</h2>

<p>Most stablecoin settlement is driven by a new type of issuer. Traditionally, fintechs issued cards through a sponsor bank that held network membership. Firms such as Rain and Reap instead hold principal membership with Visa directly, Insights4VC notes. That lets them run compliance, wallet integration and crypto-to-fiat conversion themselves, and keep more of the interchange and FX spread. It also puts more operational risk on their balance sheets.</p>

<p>The volumes are now meaningful. Artemis data, first reported by <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/crypto-cards-rival-stablecoin-transfers-as-spending-tops-usd18-billion-artemis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant</a>, put crypto card spending at over $1.5 billion a month by late 2025, an $18 billion annual pace, with Visa handling more than 90% of transactions, per a summary carried by <a href="https://www.mexc.com/news/504317" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MEXC News</a>. Paymentscan data cited by CoinDesk put July 2026 crypto card spending at $1.04 billion, more than triple a year earlier, with dollar stablecoins funding 70% of over 10 million transactions. USDC funded 50.8% of that spending and USDT 20.3%. Measures differ by data provider and by whether they count spending or settlement, so treat any single figure with care. The token mix is covered in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usdt-vs-usdc/">USDT vs USDC</a>.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the weekend problem</h2>

<p>Why would an issuer bother? Consider a mid-sized stablecoin card programme whose customers spend $10 million a week, roughly $1.43 million a day. The figures below are illustrative assumptions.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Fiat settlement.</b> The network settles on banking days. Spending from Friday, Saturday and Sunday is settled on Monday, and the issuer must hold enough pre-funded collateral to cover several days of exposure plus a buffer. Say three days: about <b>$4.3 million</b> parked in a settlement account.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin settlement.</b> Settlement can happen every day, including weekends. Collateral can drop toward one day's exposure: about <b>$1.43 million</b>.</li>
<li><b>Capital freed.</b> Roughly <b>$2.9 million</b>. If that cash earns an assumed 4% a year in short-term government bills, the issuer gains about <b>$114,000</b> annually, before conversion costs it no longer pays.</li>
</ol>

<p>For a large bank issuer this is a rounding error. For a young principal member running on venture capital, it is a hire or two. Multiply across hundreds of programmes and it explains why settlement volume doubled in a few months. Issuers earn from interchange and float as well; our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> covers the economics on the token side.</p>

<p class="note">The worked example uses simplified assumptions for illustration and is not a description of any network's actual collateral requirements.</p>

<h2>What it does not change, yet</h2>

<p>Three things are worth stating plainly. First, the customer experience is unchanged: cardholders get the same protections and the same chargeback rules on the card transaction. Second, stablecoin settlement is overwhelmingly used by crypto-native issuers. Traditional banks still settle in fiat through existing channels, much as they rely on correspondent banking for cross-border flows. Third, merchants mostly still receive local currency. A shop in Mexico City accepting a stablecoin-funded card gets pesos from its acquirer, not tokens.</p>

<p>What does change is the issuer's treasury. A programme whose customer balances sit in stablecoins can now close the loop without touching the banking system on weekends. That is the wedge. The longer game is whether merchants and acquirers start asking for stablecoin settlement themselves, which would make the card network a translation layer between on-chain money and the old system.</p>

<p>Regulation will shape how far this goes. In the US, the GENIUS Act sets the rules for payment stablecoin issuers; in Europe, MiCA governs which tokens regulated firms can use. Our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA rules</a> explains the constraints.</p>

<h2>The risks issuers take on</h2>

<p>Settling in stablecoins swaps one set of risks for another. The first is the token itself. An issuer that holds its settlement collateral in a single stablecoin is exposed if that coin trades below a dollar, even briefly, at the moment a payment is due. Past episodes, covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-depegs-history/">history of stablecoin depegs</a>, show that redemption queues and banking exposures can bite fast. The second is the chain. A congested or halted network on a busy shopping day turns a treasury advantage into a missed settlement window, and a programme spread across several blockchains, as Visa's is, offers some redundancy.</p>

<p>The third risk is regulatory and reputational. A principal member that runs its own compliance stack is answerable directly to the network and to regulators for sanctions screening and fraud controls. One serious lapse can cost a programme its membership. These are manageable risks, but they are real, and they fall on smaller firms than the banks that traditionally carried them.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Visa fiscal Q4 2026 results, expected late October 2026.</b> The first chance to see whether the stablecoin settlement run rate has moved beyond $7 billion and whether more chains have joined.</li>
<li><b>Bridge and Visa card rollout, end-2026 target.</b> The plan to reach more than 100 countries, adding Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, will test demand outside Latin America.</li>
<li><b>Mastercard's BVNK deal.</b> Watch for regulatory approvals and closing, and for whether Mastercard begins disclosing stablecoin settlement volumes.</li>
<li><b>Monthly crypto card spending data.</b> After July's $1.04 billion, the question is whether growth holds as Visa programmes multiply beyond 160.</li>
</ul>

<p>The card networks have spent sixty years making settlement invisible. Stablecoins are making it visible again, as a source of speed, float and competition among issuers. The merchants have not noticed. The issuers certainly have.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>AI Agents That Pay: Visa, Mastercard, x402, AP2 and Stablecoins</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/agentic-payments-ai-agents/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Future of Payments</category><description>Visa Intelligent Commerce, Mastercard Agent Pay, Google AP2 and Coinbase x402 all aim to let AI agents pay. What each does and how much real volume exists.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/agentic-payments-ai-agents.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Picture asking an assistant to rebook a cancelled flight, pay the fare difference and order a taxi to the airport, then putting your phone away. Each step involves a payment that you did not click. Payment companies have spent the past eighteen months building the plumbing for exactly this, and the race has produced a confusing alphabet of protocols. Here is what each one does, and how much is actually happening.</p>

<h2>Why agents break today's payments</h2>
<p>Online payments were designed around a human at a checkout page. Card networks assume a person typed the details, fraud systems look for human behaviour, and many merchants block automated traffic outright. When an AI agent shows up, the merchant cannot tell whether it is a helpful assistant or a bot running stolen cards. The bank cannot tell whether the cardholder really approved the purchase.</p>
<p>So every agentic payment scheme has to answer three questions. Who is this agent, and can it be trusted? What exactly did the human authorise? And who pays if it goes wrong?</p>

<h2>The card networks: tokens with leashes</h2>
<p><b>Mastercard Agent Pay</b> was announced in April 2025. Agents register and are verified, then pay with agentic tokens, dynamically generated credentials that never expose the real card number. Mastercard said in September 2025 that all its US cardholders would be enabled by the 2025 holiday season, <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mastercard-advance-ai-powered-payments-new-tools-developers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RTTNews reported</a>. In February 2026 it completed what it called the first fully authenticated agentic transaction on its network in India, with Axis Bank and RBL Bank issuing and merchants including Swiggy and Zepto. It also worked with Cloudflare on a way for websites to tell verified agents from malicious bots.</p>
<p><b>Visa Intelligent Commerce</b> follows the same logic: tokenised credentials, spending controls set by the user and authentication tied to the agent. By December 2025 Visa reported more than 100 partners and hundreds of controlled real-world agent transactions. In April 2026 it launched Intelligent Commerce Connect, a single integration supporting four agent protocols, including its own Trusted Agent Protocol, according to <a href="https://techinformed.com/visa-opens-one-integration-for-ai-agent-payments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechInformed</a>.</p>
<p>The appeal of the card approach is that nothing changes for the merchant's bank or the customer's protections. Chargebacks, dispute rights and fraud liability carry over.</p>

<h2>The protocols: checkout for machines</h2>
<p><b>Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP).</b> Stripe and OpenAI released ACP in September 2025 alongside Instant Checkout in ChatGPT, starting with US Etsy sellers. Its key piece is a Shared Payment Token scoped to a single merchant and cart total, so the AI app can start a payment without seeing the buyer's card, <a href="https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-openai-instant-checkout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stripe said</a>.</p>
<p><b>Agent Payments Protocol (AP2).</b> Google announced AP2 in September 2025 with more than 60 partners, including Mastercard, American Express, PayPal, Adyen, Coinbase and Revolut, <a href="https://thepaypers.com/payments/news/google-launches-agent-payments-protocol-ap2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Paypers reported</a>. It uses cryptographically signed mandates that record what the user asked the agent to do, creating an audit trail if a purchase is disputed. It is payment-method neutral, and an extension built with Coinbase and others supports stablecoin payments.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The hard problem in agentic payments is not moving money. It is proving what the human actually wanted.</blockquote>

<h2>x402 and stablecoins: payments for software, by software</h2>
<p>Coinbase launched x402 in May 2025. It revives the long-unused HTTP 402 Payment Required status code: when an agent requests a paid resource, the server replies with a price, and the agent pays in USDC within the same web request. No account, no checkout page, no card. Launch partners included Circle, AWS, Anthropic and NEAR, and Stripe, Cloudflare and Vercel later integrated it.</p>
<p>The model fits a different job from the card schemes. Card networks are built for an agent buying a jacket for a human. x402 is built for an agent paying a fraction of a cent for a data query, a web page or a burst of compute. Card economics break down at those sizes. A <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-is-a-stablecoin/">stablecoin</a> transfer on a low-fee chain costs well under a cent, which makes a one-cent purchase viable.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>160M+</b><span>x402 transactions claimed, past year (June 2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>~$1.6M</b><span>a16z estimate of real 30-day volume (Mar 2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>38%</b><span>US adults comfortable with AI completing a purchase</span></div></div>

<h2>How much is real?</h2>
<p>Treat the numbers carefully. In June 2026 Coinbase's chief executive said x402 had handled more than 160 million autonomous transactions over the previous year, <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/cefi/brian-armstrong-says-coinbase-processes-usd1t-in-stablecoin-payments-annually" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant reported</a>. Dollar volume tells a smaller story. In March 2026, after a headline figure of $24 million in monthly x402 volume, an a16z partner estimated that real 30-day volume was closer to $1.6 million once wash activity was filtered out, <a href="https://regional-front.cointelegraph.com/news/ai-agent-payment-volume-closer-to-1-6m-says-a16z" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph reported</a>. Most of it was developer tooling such as scraping and image generation, with humans still in the loop.</p>
<p>On the card side, Visa spoke of hundreds of controlled transactions at the end of 2025. Consumers are wary too: a Morning Consult survey in April 2026 found 38% of US adults comfortable with AI completing a purchase, while 60% said they would not let it spend without approval.</p>
<p>So agentic payments in late 2026 are infrastructure looking for demand. The rails exist. The habits do not yet.</p>

<h2>What decides who wins</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Liability.</b> Card schemes carry a mature dispute system. Stablecoin payments are final, so mandate records like AP2's matter more.</li>
<li><b>Ticket size.</b> Cards suit purchases above a few dollars. Micropayments between machines favour stablecoins.</li>
<li><b>Identity.</b> Whoever runs the trusted register of verified agents gains a powerful position. Visa, Mastercard and Cloudflare are all bidding for it.</li>
<li><b>Regulation.</b> Clearer stablecoin rules in the US and EU, covered in our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS and MiCA</a>, make machine payments in tokens easier for regulated firms to support.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Our view</h2>
<p>We expect both camps to coexist. For consumer shopping, agents will mostly pay with tokenised cards, because that keeps existing protections and merchants do not have to change much. For software paying software, stablecoins and protocols like x402 have a structural cost advantage that cards cannot match. The interesting middle ground is bills and subscriptions, where an agent could compare, schedule and settle on whichever rail is cheapest. That is a theme in our outlook on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-payments-2030/">the future of payments to 2030</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/agentic-payments-ai-agents.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Moving Back to India: 2026 Money Checklist for Returning NRIs</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>Moving back to India in 2026? RNOR status, converting NRE, NRO and FCNR accounts, RFC accounts, foreign assets, baggage limits and a dated money checklist.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A software architect boards a flight from Toronto to Delhi in late November with two suitcases, a container of furniture a month behind, and five Indian bank accounts that were all opened for a non-resident. The day she lands, most of those accounts are on the wrong side of the rules. Moving back to India is a residency change for two separate systems, foreign exchange law and income tax, and they run on different clocks. Get the order wrong and the cost shows up as taxed interest that should have been exempt, or as foreign savings stuck in the wrong kind of account.</p>

<p>This checklist covers what changes, in what order, under the rules in force in 2026. It explains published rules and is not tax or legal advice. Every family's mix of countries, pensions and property is different, so confirm your plan with a qualified adviser.</p>

<h2>Two clocks: FEMA status and tax status</h2>

<p>Under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, residency turns largely on intention. Someone who comes back to take up a job, run a business or stay for an uncertain period becomes a person resident in India for banking purposes more or less from arrival. That is the trigger for converting accounts.</p>

<p>Income tax uses day counts. The tests carried into the Income-tax Act, 2025 are unchanged, according to the Income Tax Department FAQs <a href="https://southasianherald.com/tax-dept-clears-nri-doubts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported in July 2026</a>: you are resident if you spend 182 days or more in India in the tax year, or 60 days or more in the year plus 365 days or more over the previous four years. Indian citizens and people of Indian origin who are visiting face a 120-day threshold instead of 60 when their Indian income, excluding foreign income, exceeds Rs 15 lakh. The new Act also keeps the "resident but not ordinarily resident" (RNOR) category, the transitional status that most returning NRIs pass through.</p>

<p>RNOR matters because during it, broadly, income earned abroad stays outside the Indian tax net and certain deposits keep their exemption. Guidance for returning residents puts the typical RNOR window at <a href="https://getbelong.com/blog/nre-accounts-tax-free.md" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two to three years</a>, depending on how long you were away. The exact span depends on your history, so it is worth having an adviser work it out before you book the flight, not after.</p>

<h2>What happens to each account</h2>

<p>The banking rules are set out in the RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=10382" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deposit regulations</a> and summarised in <a href="https://old.wirc-icai.org/images/material/Deposits-Non-Residents-India.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">professional guidance from the ICAI's western region</a>. The pattern is that rupee accounts convert, foreign currency deposits can run on, and a special account exists for foreign money you bring back.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Account</th><th>On return</th><th>Indian tax after return</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>NRE savings</td><td>Must be redesignated as a resident account, or the balance moved to an RFC account</td><td>Interest taxable once you are resident</td></tr>
<tr><td>NRE fixed deposit</td><td>Can usually run to maturity, then converts</td><td>Interest accruing after you become resident is taxable</td></tr>
<tr><td>NRO</td><td>Redesignated as a resident account if you plan to stay for an uncertain period</td><td>Taxable, as before, at slab rates</td></tr>
<tr><td>FCNR(B)</td><td>May continue to maturity at the contracted rate; then to a resident rupee deposit or an RFC account</td><td>Interest stays exempt while you are RNOR</td></tr>
<tr><td>RFC (new)</td><td>Opened by a returning NRI to hold foreign currency</td><td>Taxable per your status</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The FCNR(B) row is the one with money in it. Its interest is exempt for a non-resident and, unusually, <a href="https://www.kotak.bank.in/en/stories-in-focus/nri/tds-on-nri-fds-key-facts-you-should-know.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remains exempt through the RNOR period</a>, so a deposit that matures within that window keeps its full return. That is one reason the rush into five-year FCNR(B) deposits during the RBI's 2026 swap window, which raised <a href="https://bsppd.business-standard.com/markets/news/fcnr-b-haul-soars-to-127-bn-on-final-sprint-exceeding-mkt-expectations-126090300001_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$127.2 billion by 31 August</a>, has a tail of tax questions for anyone who returns before 2031. SBI notes that interest on its FCNR(B) deposits <a href="https://www.sbi.co.in/portal/web/nri/fcnrb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may become taxable</a> on relocating to India, depending on tax status.</p>

<h2>The RFC account and your foreign savings</h2>

<p>The Resident Foreign Currency account is the least known and most useful tool for a returning NRI. It is opened by someone who was formerly an NRI or person of Indian origin. According to ICAI material on the <a href="https://old.wirc-icai.org/images/material/Bank-acs-LRS$1-million-scheme-HB.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accounts and remittance schemes</a>, it can receive balances moved from NRE and FCNR(B) accounts when your status changes, foreign pension or superannuation from an overseas employer, and foreign currency realised from assets you were allowed to keep abroad. There is no time limit on it, interest is set by the bank, and the money can be used inside or outside India.</p>

<p>The legal backbone is Section 6(4) of FEMA. It lets a resident keep, transfer and invest foreign currency, foreign securities and overseas property acquired while living abroad, or inherited from a non-resident. You do not have to sell a flat in Leicester or close a brokerage account in New Jersey when you move. Income and sale proceeds from those assets can be used abroad or reinvested without RBI approval. New money you send out after becoming resident is different: it falls under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, capped at $250,000 per person per financial year.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">You are allowed to keep what you built abroad. The rules only tighten on what you send out after you land.</blockquote>

<h2>Foreign assets and the reporting trap</h2>

<p>Keeping foreign assets is legal. Not reporting them is not. Once you are resident and ordinarily resident, Indian tax returns require disclosure of foreign accounts, shares, property and pensions, and the penalties under the black money law for missing them are severe. RNOR years give some breathing room on taxation of foreign income, but reporting habits should start early.</p>

<p>For people who have already slipped, the government opened a one-time window. The FAST-DS 2026 scheme runs from 16 August to 31 December 2026, according to <a href="https://nriinformation.com/taxation/india-budget-2026-nri-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Budget 2026 commentary</a>. One route covers undisclosed foreign assets or income up to Rs 1 crore, at 30 percent tax plus an equal additional amount. The other covers assets up to Rs 5 crore that were acquired while non-resident or from income already taxed in India, for a flat fee of Rs 1 lakh. Both give immunity from penalty and prosecution. A returnee who has been resident for a few years and never filed the foreign assets schedule is exactly the person that second route was written for.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>182 days</b><span>Main day-count test for tax residency</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$250,000</b><span>LRS limit per resident per year once back</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Rs 75,000</b><span>Duty-free baggage allowance from Feb 2026</span></div></div>

<h2>What you can carry: baggage and gold</h2>

<p>Baggage Rules 2026, effective 2 February 2026, raised the duty-free allowance for returning residents and NRIs or OCI holders from Rs 50,000 to Rs 75,000. Gold jewellery is now weight-based for anyone who has been abroad for more than a year: 40 grams for women and 20 grams for others. Duty above the allowance remains 35 percent, about 38.5 percent with surcharge. Household goods shipped separately go through the transfer of residence process at customs, which has its own conditions on how long you lived abroad, so check them with customs or your mover before you pack.</p>

<h2>A worked example: returning from Toronto in November</h2>

<p>Take the architect from the opening. She lands on 15 November 2026 to stay. Interest rates below are illustrative assumptions; the rules are as published.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Day count.</b> From 15 November to 31 March is 137 days, below 182. She may still be resident for tax year 2026-27 under the 60-day test if she spent 365 days or more in India across the previous four years. Either way, a long absence before that should keep her RNOR.</li>
<li><b>NRE fixed deposit of Rs 20 lakh at an assumed 6.5 percent.</b> About Rs 1.3 lakh of interest a year. Interest accruing before her return is exempt; interest after she becomes resident is taxable at her slab rate.</li>
<li><b>FCNR(B) deposit of $50,000 maturing in 2028.</b> It can run to maturity. If she is still RNOR then, the interest stays exempt in India. At maturity she can move it to an RFC account and keep it in dollars.</li>
<li><b>Canadian retirement savings and brokerage account.</b> She can keep both under Section 6(4). They must be reported in her Indian returns once required, and Canada may still tax some withdrawals, which is a treaty question for an adviser.</li>
<li><b>Jewellery.</b> She can bring 40 grams of gold jewellery duty-free, having lived abroad more than a year.</li>
</ul>

<p>The biggest avoidable loss in this example is behavioural. If she leaves the NRE savings account untouched for a year, she is in breach of FEMA and the bank will eventually force a conversion anyway.</p>

<h2>The dated checklist</h2>

<ol>
<li><b>Six months before:</b> map every account and asset in both countries. Ask an adviser to project your residential status for the next three tax years, including when RNOR ends.</li>
<li><b>Three months before:</b> decide which foreign accounts to keep. Notify foreign banks and brokers of the move; some will not serve India residents.</li>
<li><b>One month before:</b> get proof of foreign pension entitlements and statements of all foreign assets as of departure. Book customs paperwork for shipped goods.</li>
<li><b>Within weeks of arrival:</b> tell each Indian bank you are now resident. Redesignate NRE savings and NRO accounts, open an RFC account if you are bringing foreign money, and leave FCNR(B) deposits to run.</li>
<li><b>First 90 days:</b> update PAN and Aadhaar addresses, buy domestic health insurance, and move parents' bills off foreign cards. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-utility-bills-across-borders/">paying utility bills across borders</a> covers the transition period.</li>
<li><b>First 31 March:</b> close the tax year with your day count recorded. File an Indian return by 31 July with your status stated correctly.</li>
<li><b>End of RNOR:</b> foreign income becomes taxable in India. Revisit the foreign accounts and any FCNR(B) deposits still running.</li>
</ol>

<p>For the account rules behind steps 4 and 7, see our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE, NRO and FCNR accounts</a> and the broader <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a>. If the move is partly about aging parents, our piece on caring for parents from abroad covers what changes once you are on the ground.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>16 August to 31 December 2026:</b> the FAST-DS window for disclosing foreign assets.</li>
<li><b>1 October 2026:</b> resident buyers of property from NRIs can deduct TDS with their PAN, which matters if you sell an Indian flat before you return.</li>
<li><b>31 July 2027:</b> returns for tax year 2026-27, the first under the Income-tax Act, 2025, where your residential status for the year of return is declared.</li>
<li><b>2028 to 2031:</b> maturity of the five-year FCNR(B) deposits opened in the 2026 swap window. Returnees holding them should check whether they will still be RNOR on the maturity date. For ways to reinvest, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/">NRI investment routes</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article summarises published RBI, customs and tax rules for general information. It is not financial, tax or legal advice. Residency calculations are fact-specific, so confirm your status and account changes with a qualified adviser.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>FATF Travel Rule for Crypto 2026: Rules, Thresholds, Country Status</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>The FATF Travel Rule for crypto explained: what data VASPs must send, thresholds in the EU, US, UK, Singapore, UAE and India, and the 2026 FATF scorecard.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fatf-travel-rule-crypto.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A compliance analyst at a mid-sized exchange in Dubai gets a withdrawal request for USDT worth a little over AED 3,500. Before the coins leave, she needs the sender's name, wallet or account number and home address, plus the name and wallet of the person receiving. If the destination is another exchange, that data has to travel with the transfer. If it is a private wallet, a different set of checks kicks in. That ritual, repeated millions of times a day across the world's crypto platforms, is the Travel Rule.</p>

<p>The idea is old. Banks have attached sender and recipient details to wire transfers for decades so that investigators can follow money. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the intergovernmental body that writes global anti-money laundering standards, extended the obligation to virtual asset service providers (VASPs) under Recommendation 15 and its interpretive note. Seven years on, most large markets have written it into law. Far fewer have checked whether anyone is actually doing it.</p>

<h2>What the Travel Rule actually requires</h2>

<p>Strip away the jargon and the rule asks three things of a VASP, which is any business that exchanges, transfers or holds crypto for customers.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Collect.</b> The sending VASP gathers originator information (name, account or wallet address, and usually a physical address or ID number) and beneficiary information (name and account or wallet address).</li>
<li><b>Transmit.</b> That data must reach the receiving VASP before or at the same time as the transfer, securely and not on the public blockchain.</li>
<li><b>Check and hold.</b> The receiving VASP must hold the information, check the beneficiary matches its own customer, and decide what to do when data is missing or looks wrong.</li>
</ul>

<p>On top of this sit sanctions screening and suspicious activity reporting. The Travel Rule is the plumbing that makes those checks possible when value moves between two different firms.</p>

<p>Crypto made this harder than in banking for one structural reason. A bank wire always runs between two identifiable institutions over a known network. A blockchain address carries no label saying whether it belongs to a regulated exchange in Singapore, an unlicensed broker, or a person holding their own keys. So before a VASP can send data, it has to work out who, if anyone, is on the other side. That counterparty discovery problem is where most of the industry's money and engineering effort has gone.</p>

<h2>The 2026 FATF scorecard: laws up, enforcement lagging</h2>

<p>The FATF published its seventh targeted update on virtual assets on 16 July 2026. The headline numbers show steady progress on paper and a stubborn gap in practice. According to the <a href="https://fiaumalta.org/app/uploads/2026/07/7th-targeted-update-on-implementation-fatf-standards-vas-vasps-2026.pdf.coredownload.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 report</a>, 91 of 109 responding jurisdictions (83%) have passed Travel Rule legislation, up from 85 of 117 (73%) a year earlier, and 11 more are in the process.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>83%</b><span>of responding jurisdictions have passed Travel Rule laws (91 of 109)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>60%</b><span>of those (55 of 91) have taken no supervisory or enforcement action on it</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1 of 149</b><span>jurisdictions rated fully compliant with Recommendation 15</span></div></div>

<p>The less flattering figure is enforcement. Of the 91 jurisdictions with a law, 55 had not issued a single supervisory finding, directive or enforcement action tied to Travel Rule compliance. A rule nobody inspects is, functionally, a suggestion. The FATF's broader Recommendation 15 ratings, based on mutual evaluations published as of April 2026, tell the same story: 34% of 149 assessed jurisdictions were largely compliant, 43% partially compliant and 22% non-compliant. Only one was fully compliant. As <a href="https://www.21analytics.co/blog/2026-fatf-targeted-update-part1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">21 Analytics noted</a> in its summary, these survey answers are self-reported and not independently verified, so the true picture may be weaker.</p>

<p>The 2025 update had already flagged why this matters. It recorded the theft of $1.46 billion by North Korean actors from the exchange Bybit, the largest single virtual asset theft on record, with only 3.8% recovered at the time, and said stablecoins now feature in most on-chain illicit activity. The FATF's <a href="https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfrecommendations/targeted-update-virtual-assets-vasps-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 publication</a> also noted that jurisdictions with materially important VASP activity make up about 98% of the global virtual asset market, which is why the FATF concentrates its pressure on that group.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A Travel Rule with no inspections is a form field, not a control.</blockquote>

<h2>How major jurisdictions apply it</h2>

<p>The FATF sets the minimum. Countries then pick their own thresholds, data fields and treatment of private wallets. The differences are large enough that a single transfer can be fully compliant at one end and deficient at the other.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Jurisdiction</th><th>Legal basis and regulator</th><th>In force</th><th>Threshold</th><th>Notable feature</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>European Union</td><td>Transfer of Funds Regulation (EU) 2023/1113</td><td>30 Dec 2024</td><td>None: every transfer</td><td>CASP must verify ownership of a self-hosted wallet for transfers above EUR 1,000</td></tr>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>Bank Secrecy Act recordkeeping and travel rule; FinCEN</td><td>Applied to crypto via May 2019 guidance</td><td>$3,000</td><td>A 2020 proposal to cut the cross-border threshold to $250 was not adopted</td></tr>
<tr><td>United Kingdom</td><td>Money Laundering Regulations; FCA</td><td>1 Sep 2023</td><td>Applies to transfers; gaps handled case by case</td><td>Firms must check whether the receiving firm can accept the data before sending</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>MAS Notice PSN02</td><td>28 Jan 2020</td><td>Fuller data above S$1,500</td><td>Basic originator and beneficiary data required at any amount</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dubai</td><td>VARA Compliance and Risk Management Rulebook</td><td>In force</td><td>Above AED 3,500</td><td>Explicit duty to watch for transfers split to stay under the threshold</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>PMLA (VDA notification of 7 Mar 2023); FIU-IND guidelines</td><td>Mar 2023</td><td>None set out in guidance</td><td>Applies to VDA transfers whether settled in fiat or crypto</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The European approach is the strictest. The <a href="https://notabene.id/post/eus-transfer-of-funds-regulation-5-key-takeaways-apr-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recast Transfer of Funds Regulation</a> has no de minimis amount at all, and the receiving CASP must have the data before it makes funds available. Washington sits at the other end: FinCEN treats crypto transfers as covered by the same $3,000 rule that applies to bank wires. In October 2020, FinCEN and the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2020/11/fincen-and-federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> dropping that to $250 for transfers that start or end outside the US, and explicitly writing convertible virtual currency into the definition of money. The domestic threshold would have stayed at $3,000.</p>

<p>The UK's regulator took a pragmatic line on the hardest operational problem, counterparties in countries that have not implemented the rule yet. The <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-sets-out-expectations-uk-cryptoasset-businesses-complying-travel-rule" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FCA's statement</a> says UK firms must still collect, verify and store the data even if the receiving firm cannot accept it, and should make a risk-based call about whether to release incoming funds that arrive with missing details. Dubai's <a href="https://rulebooks.vara.ae/node/146" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VARA rulebook</a> requires the originator's name, wallet or account number and address, and the beneficiary's name and wallet, for any transfer above AED 3,500.</p>

<p>India folded VDA businesses into the Prevention of Money Laundering Act in March 2023, and FIU-IND's guidelines require sending providers to pass originator and beneficiary information to the receiving provider, as a <a href="https://mondaq.com/india/money-laundering/1446788/the-implementation-of-the-fatf-travel-rule-to-vasps-in-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mondaq analysis</a> sets out. For background on the wider Indian framework, see our explainer on India's crypto regulation in 2026.</p>

<h2>A worked example: one transfer, three rulebooks</h2>

<p>Consider an account holder in Dubai who wants to move USDT worth AED 10,000 from a VARA-licensed exchange to two places: half to a relative's account at an exchange in Frankfurt, half to her own hardware wallet.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>AED 5,000 to the Frankfurt exchange.</b> This is above VARA's AED 3,500 line, so the Dubai VASP must collect her name, account or wallet number and address, plus her relative's name and wallet, and transmit them. On the German side, EU rules apply with no threshold, so the receiving CASP must have the data before crediting the relative. Until complete data arrives, it should not make the funds available.</li>
<li><b>AED 5,000 to her own hardware wallet.</b> No VASP sits on the other side to receive data. The Dubai platform still has to record the information and assess the unhosted-wallet risk under its rulebook. Had she done the same thing from an EU platform with a transfer above EUR 1,000, that CASP would have to verify she actually owns or controls the wallet,.</li>
<li><b>The tempting shortcut.</b> Suppose she instead splits AED 10,000 into three transfers of AED 3,400 each, a day apart. Each sits under the threshold, but VARA's rulebook specifically tells VASPs to watch for structuring of this kind. Splitting is more likely to trigger a review than avoid one.</li>
</ol>

<p>Now run a parallel case from the US. A customer sends $2,900 in USDC from a US exchange to a European CASP. On the US side, this sits under FinCEN's $3,000 trigger. On the EU side, the receiving CASP still needs complete originator data. A US platform that wants the transfer credited promptly has every reason to send the data anyway, because the receiving end can otherwise hold the funds. The strictest jurisdiction on either side of a transfer tends to set the real standard.</p>

<h2>How VASPs comply in practice</h2>

<p>Compliance teams typically build or buy a stack with four layers.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Counterparty identification.</b> Blockchain analytics and shared directories help a VASP decide whether a destination address belongs to a known, licensed platform, an unknown service or a private wallet.</li>
<li><b>Messaging protocols.</b> Several competing protocols carry Travel Rule data between VASPs. Interoperability between them is still imperfect, which is one reason transfers to smaller platforms sometimes stall.</li>
<li><b>Data checks.</b> The receiving side compares the beneficiary name against its own customer record and screens both parties against sanctions lists. For more on that screening layer, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/">crypto AML and sanctions compliance</a>.</li>
<li><b>Unhosted wallet controls.</b> Ownership proofs, risk scoring of the destination address, and limits on transfers to wallets with exposure to mixers or sanctioned entities.</li>
</ul>

<p>The weak spot is the "sunrise" problem: when a sender's country requires the rule and the receiver's does not, there may be no one ready to receive the data. The FCA's answer is to collect and store anyway. Many platforms respond by restricting withdrawals to counterparties they cannot verify. For users, this shows up as a pop-up asking for the recipient's full name, or a withdrawal held for review. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">self-custody versus custodial wallets</a> covers why moving to a private wallet now triggers extra questions.</p>

<h2>The bigger shift: Recommendation 16 rewritten for all payments</h2>

<p>The crypto Travel Rule borrows from Recommendation 16, the FATF standard for wire transfers. On 13 June 2025, the FATF adopted a revised R.16 that applies to all cross-border payments. As <a href="https://www.cgap.org/blog/fatfs-revised-travel-rule-key-changes-for-payment-transparency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CGAP explains</a>, the revision sets a USD/EUR 1,000 threshold (countries may go lower, never higher). Above it, cross-border payments must carry the originator's name, account number and address, and the beneficiary's name, account number, country and town. Legal entities are identified by a BIC, LEI or similar code, and the data must be verified. Unusually, the FATF gave institutions until the end of 2030 to comply.</p>

<p>That matters for crypto because regulators increasingly treat stablecoin transfers as payments. The direction is convergence: bank wires, card-based cash withdrawals and token transfers carrying broadly similar data, often in structured ISO 20022 fields. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/">SWIFT and ISO 20022</a> explains that message standard.</p>

<h2>Where the rule falls short</h2>

<p>Three gaps stand out in the FATF's own data. First, peer-to-peer transfers between private wallets sit outside the rule entirely, and 58 of 66 jurisdictions that assessed them rate P2P activity as high risk, yet only 31 of 133 collect any market data on it. Second, decentralised finance is barely touched: 26 of 142 respondents have assessed DeFi risks and only one reported enforcement action against a DeFi arrangement. Third, licensing itself is thin. Only 59 of 149 jurisdictions met or mostly met the FATF criterion on VASP licensing and registration, and you cannot enforce a Travel Rule against firms you have not licensed. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">CASP, VASP and money transmitter licences</a> covers that layer.</p>

<p>Our view: the Travel Rule is doing useful work on the regulated perimeter, where most retail volume still sits. It does far less against sophisticated actors who move through bridges, OTC brokers and unhosted wallets. The FATF's 2026 report describes exactly that pattern in North Korean laundering. The next phase of enforcement will be judged on whether supervisors start sanctioning VASPs that accept data-free transfers from high-risk counterparties.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> the FATF's eighth targeted update, if it keeps its annual rhythm. The number to watch is how many of the 55 jurisdictions with no Travel Rule enforcement have taken action.</li>
<li><b>2027:</b> first exchanges of crypto tax data under the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will layer tax reporting on top of the same customer data VASPs already collect. See our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-tax-by-country-2026/">crypto tax by country</a>.</li>
<li><b>Through 2030:</b> banks and payment firms implementing the revised Recommendation 16, with a hard deadline at the end of 2030.</li>
<li><b>US threshold:</b> whether FinCEN revisits the $250 cross-border proposal as stablecoin payments grow under the new federal regime, covered in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">GENIUS Act and MiCA rules</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains regulatory requirements in general terms and is not legal advice. Firms and individuals should check obligations with a qualified adviser in the relevant jurisdiction.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fatf-travel-rule-crypto.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Money Transfer Scams in 2026: $16B Lost and How to Protect Your Family</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Guides</category><description>Americans reported $15.9B in fraud losses in 2025 and the FBI logged $20.9B. Common transfer scams, how UK APP refunds work, and how to protect family.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/money-transfer-scams.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">The call comes on a weekday afternoon. A calm voice says he is from the bank's fraud team: someone is trying to drain your account, and you need to move your savings to a safe account right now. A retired teacher in Leeds, a nurse in Houston and a shopkeeper's mother in Kochi all hear versions of the same script. It works because it borrows the language of protection. And once the money has been sent by the account holder herself, getting it back is hard almost everywhere.</p>

<h2>The scale: record losses, again</h2>
<p>Americans reported losing $15.9 billion to fraud in 2025, up from $12.5 billion in 2024, according to Federal Trade Commission data reported by <a href="https://www.moneytalksnews.com/americans-lost-a-record-billion-to-scams-in-ftc-says/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Money Talks News</a>. The FTC received 3 million fraud reports. Investment scams accounted for $7.9 billion, nearly half the total. Bank transfers and payments produced the highest aggregate losses of any payment method, followed by cryptocurrency.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$15.9B</b><span>fraud losses reported to the FTC, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$11.4B</b><span>crypto-related losses reported to the FBI</span></div><div class="stat"><b>£576.4M</b><span>UK APP fraud losses, 2025</span></div></div>
<p>The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center counted $20.9 billion in losses across just over 1 million complaints in 2025. Crypto-related losses reached about $11.4 billion, with crypto investment fraud alone at $7.2 billion, and people aged 60 and over reported $7.8 billion in losses across all crime types, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/amp/post/397134/fbi-says-crypto-related-fraud-losses-hit-record-11-4-billion-in-2025-with-seniors-bearing-the-brunt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. These are reported figures; the FTC has estimated that true losses, allowing for underreporting, are many times higher.</p>

<h2>The five scams that hit transfers hardest</h2>
<h3>1. Bank and government impersonation</h3>
<p>Imposter scams were the most reported fraud type in 2025, with losses of $3.5 billion, nearly triple the 2020 level, according to the <a href="https://ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/06/ftc-data-show-people-reported-losing-3-point-5-billion-imposter-scams-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FTC</a>. Bank impersonators caused the largest losses among business impersonations, and government impersonation scams took about $920 million. The script is always urgent: your account is compromised, a warrant is pending, move your money now.</p>
<h3>2. Investment and "pig butchering" scams</h3>
<p>A friendly stranger, often met through social media or a wrong-number text, slowly builds trust and then introduces a trading platform showing impressive returns. Victims send more and more, frequently in crypto, until withdrawals are blocked.</p>
<h3>3. Family emergency scams</h3>
<p>A message from an unknown number claims to be a son with a broken phone who needs money urgently. With voice cloning, some now arrive as phone calls. Families sending money across borders are particularly exposed, because they are used to urgent requests from abroad.</p>
<h3>4. Fake transfer providers and rate offers</h3>
<p>Social media ads promise unusually good exchange rates for remittances. The sender pays, and the money never arrives. Always check that a provider is licensed in your country. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the real cost of sending money home</a> explains what normal rates look like, so an offer that is too good stands out.</p>
<h3>5. Romance and job scams</h3>
<p>Both rely on emotional investment and end with requests to send money, buy gift cards or "pay a fee" to release wages.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">Every scam on this list ends the same way: the victim is persuaded to press send themselves.</blockquote>

<h2>Authorised push payment fraud and the UK model</h2>
<p>That last point matters legally. When a criminal takes money from your account without permission, it is unauthorised fraud, and banks usually refund it. When you are tricked into sending it yourself, it is authorised push payment (APP) fraud, and in many countries you bear the loss.</p>
<p>The UK changed that. Since 7 October 2024, banks and payment firms sending faster payments must reimburse eligible APP scam victims up to £85,000, with the cost split between the sending and receiving firms. In the 18 months to 31 March 2026, 88% of money lost to in-scope APP scams, about £316 million, was reimbursed, and 82% of claims were closed within five business days, according to the <a href="https://www.psr.org.uk/information-for-consumers/app-scams-reimbursement-dashboard/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Systems Regulator's dashboard</a>. Firms may apply an excess of up to £100, and only around 3% of claims were rejected for lack of consumer caution.</p>
<p>The problem has not gone away. UK Finance reported APP fraud losses of £576.4 million in 2025, up 19%, with investment scams the largest category at £221.5 million. Reimbursement shifts the cost to banks; it does not stop the criminals. And it does not cover cross-border transfers or most crypto purchases. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-are-payment-rails/">payment rails</a> shows why protections differ so much between them.</p>

<h2>How to protect your family</h2>
<p>The most effective defences are simple and social, not technical:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Agree a family code word.</b> Anyone asking for urgent money must use it. This defeats most emergency and voice-clone scams.</li>
<li><b>Hang up and call back.</b> Banks and tax agencies never ask you to move money to a safe account. Call the number on the back of your card, from a different phone if possible.</li>
<li><b>Slow down.</b> Urgency is the scammer's main tool. A real bank will still be there in an hour.</li>
<li><b>Never pay a stranger in crypto, gift cards or wire transfers.</b> These are the methods scammers prefer because they are hard to reverse.</li>
<li><b>Check the provider.</b> Use licensed transfer services and type their address yourself rather than clicking an ad.</li>
<li><b>Talk to older relatives.</b> People over 60 reported $7.8 billion in losses to the FBI in 2025. A ten-minute conversation about these scripts is worth more than any app.</li>
</ol>

<h2>If it has already happened</h2>
<ul>
<li>Contact your bank or provider immediately and ask them to recall the payment.</li>
<li>Report it: in the US to the FTC and the FBI's IC3, in the UK to your bank and Action Fraud, elsewhere to the national police cybercrime unit.</li>
<li>Keep screenshots, phone numbers, wallet addresses and transaction IDs.</li>
<li>Be wary of "recovery" services that contact you. They are often the same criminals.</li>
</ul>
<p>Scams will keep evolving with AI tools. The good news is that the core of every script, urgency and secrecy, has not changed in decades, and neither has the best defence: pausing and checking with someone you trust.</p>
<p class="note">This article is general information. If you have been scammed, contact your bank and local authorities as soon as possible.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/money-transfer-scams.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>G2P Payments Around the World: How Governments Pay Citizens in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/g2p-payments-around-the-world/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/g2p-payments-around-the-world/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>How governments pay citizens digitally: World Bank Findex data plus Brazil&#x27;s Bolsa Familia, Kenya&#x27;s Inua Jamii, the Philippines, Indonesia and Togo compared.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/g2p-payments-around-the-world.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On the morning a Kenyan cash transfer cycle opens, the queue at an M-PESA agent in Kisumu is mostly people over seventy. They dial a short code, confirm a PIN, and walk out with KSh 2,000 that the Treasury sent the evening before. Nobody in that queue thinks of it as a payments system. It is the pension. Government-to-person payments, or G2P, are the single largest reason poor households in developing economies hold a financial account at all, and the design choices behind them decide whether that account ever gets used for anything else.</p>

<p>This piece compares how five countries actually pay people in 2025-26, what the World Bank's latest data says about the global picture, and which lessons travel. India's own system is covered in depth in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">Direct Benefit Transfer</a>; here it serves as a reference point.</p>

<h2>The global picture: G2P built the account base</h2>

<p>The World Bank's Global Findex 2025 is the best cross-country source. As summarised by <a href="https://www.findevgateway.org/blog/2025/11/tracks-are-laid-now-we-need-more-traffic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CGAP's FinDev Gateway</a>, 75% of adults in low- and middle-income economies now have an account, and 73% of people receiving government transfers are paid into one. Around 43% of adults in these economies opened their first account to receive social support or a wage. Still, 1.3 billion adults remain unbanked.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>73%</b><span>of G2P recipients paid into an account</span></div><div class="stat"><b>75%</b><span>account ownership, developing economies</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1.3B</b><span>adults still unbanked</span></div></div>

<p>Contrast that with private wages. Only about 45% of private-sector wage earners are paid into an account, and just 32% of low-income wage earners. Governments, in other words, have digitised faster than employers. That gap is a policy achievement and a warning: a G2P account that is emptied in cash on payday does very little for financial inclusion beyond the first withdrawal.</p>

<p>The World Bank's <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/g2px/overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">G2Px programme</a>, run with the Gates Foundation, frames the payoff in fiscal terms: digitised payments on shared rails reduce leakage, improve targeting and deter fraud. Its own presentation material cites an estimated 3.3% annual saving from centralising and digitising G2P payments, and research showing that during COVID-19, countries with existing digital ID and data-sharing systems reached over three times more beneficiaries than those that had to collect new data.</p>

<h2>Brazil: one family registry, one bank, monthly</h2>

<p>Bolsa Família is the archetype of modern conditional cash transfers. According to the <a href="https://www.gov.br/mds/pt-br/acoes-e-programas/bolsa-familia/arquivos/06_live_junho_2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ministry of Social Development's June 2026 briefing</a>, the programme reached 19.34 million families and 50.1 million people that month, with a total transfer of R$13.84 billion and an average benefit of R$677.66 per family.</p>

<p>Brazil's distinctive asset is the federal bank Caixa, which acts as the single paying agent. When the pandemic emergency aid launched in 2020, <a href="https://glenbrook.com/where-necessity-meets-innovation-government-disbursement-in-the-time-of-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Glenbrook reported</a> that Caixa received 11 million requests to open digital savings accounts in two days, through an app that was barely six months old. A World Bank review later credited Pix, wallets and pro-digital policy with getting 75% of emergency aid beneficiaries to use their funds digitally. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix and Drex</a> covers why that matters: once money lands in an account that talks to an instant payment system, cash-out stops being the default.</p>

<h2>Kenya: welfare on mobile money</h2>

<p>Kenya's Inua Jamii programme pays older people aged 70 and above, caregivers of orphans and vulnerable children, and caregivers of people with severe disabilities. A <a href="https://socialprotection.go.ke/sites/default/files/press%20release/FEBRUARY%20INUA%20JAMII%20PRESS%20RELEASE.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">State Department for Social Protection release</a> for the February 2025 cycle reported KSh 3.52 billion paid to 1,761,897 beneficiaries, KSh 2,000 each, with recipients told to dial *222# and withdraw at an M-PESA agent.</p>

<p>The appeal is obvious: Kenya already had agents in nearly every trading centre. The weakness is equally visible in the press coverage, which repeatedly reports cycles paid weeks late because the Treasury released funds late. A fast rail does not fix a slow budget. For more on why mobile money took root in East Africa, see our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa and mobile money</a>.</p>

<h2>Philippines and Indonesia: the migration problem</h2>

<p>The Philippines' Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) pays conditional grants to roughly four million households, through cash cards issued with the state-owned Land Bank; the <a href="https://pantawid.dswd.gov.ph/?p=4381" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DSWD reported</a> 4.012 million household beneficiaries when it began crediting grants to cards in 2021. The 2025 budget allotted P114.1 billion to 4Ps, the largest single item in P253.3 billion of aid spending, <a href="https://gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/915557/dbm-allots-p253-3b-for-ayuda-in-proposed-2025-budget/story" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GMA News reported</a>. Digital delivery has measurable benefits for recipients: a <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/digital-development/cash-vs-digital-how-do-digital-government-person-payments-ease-lives-recipients" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank study</a> found that moving the second round of the pandemic Social Amelioration Program to digital payments cut average waiting time by 40 minutes.</p>

<p>Indonesia shows what happens mid-transition. In early July 2025, Social Affairs Minister Saifullah Yusuf said that the second-quarter PKH conditional transfer had reached over 8 million families with Rp5.8 trillion, and the Sembako food programme over 15 million families with Rp9.2 trillion, <a href="https://www.idxchannel.com/economics/penyaluran-bansos-sudah-lebih-dari-rp20-triliun-hingga-awal-juli-2025/all" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDX Channel reported</a>. But more than 3 million families had not yet been paid, largely because they were being moved from cash delivery by the post office to collective accounts at the state-owned Himbara banks. Over 1.3 million PKH families and nearly 2 million Sembako families were in that migration queue.</p>

<p>The lesson is uncomfortable for anyone who thinks digitisation is a one-way improvement. Switching channels is itself a source of exclusion. Indonesia kept the post office route for people with severe disabilities, the elderly and remote communities, which is a sensible design: digital by default, not digital only.</p>

<h2>Togo: paying people the state could not see</h2>

<p>Togo's Novissi programme in 2020 is the most cited example of G2P innovation. With no comprehensive social registry, the government registered informal workers by mobile phone and, for a rural expansion, used machine learning on phone and satellite data to target the poorest areas and people. According to <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/case-study/using-machine-learning-and-mobile-phone-data-improve-speed-and-cost-effectiveness-social" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-PAL's case study</a>, about 820,000 people received transfers worth around US$32 million overall, monthly payments were US$20-22, and the ML-based targeting reduced exclusion errors by 4-21% compared with blanket geographic targeting.</p>

<p>Novissi worked because Togo's mobile money operators were already there. It is a crisis tool, not a template for permanent welfare, but it showed that the hardest part of G2P is knowing who to pay, not moving the money.</p>

<h2>Six programmes side by side</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Programme</th><th>Recipients (latest reported)</th><th>Amount per cycle</th><th>Main channel</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>India PM-KISAN</td><td>9.44 crore farmers (Jun 2026)</td><td>₹2,000 per instalment</td><td>Aadhaar-mapped bank account</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brazil Bolsa Família</td><td>19.34M families, 50.1M people (Jun 2026)</td><td>R$677.66 average per family per month</td><td>Caixa account and app</td></tr>
<tr><td>Kenya Inua Jamii</td><td>1.76M (Feb 2025 cycle)</td><td>KSh 2,000</td><td>M-PESA agent cash-out</td></tr>
<tr><td>Philippines 4Ps</td><td>About 4M households</td><td>Grant varies by compliance</td><td>Land Bank cash card</td></tr>
<tr><td>Indonesia PKH</td><td>8M+ families (Q2 2025)</td><td>Varies by household category</td><td>Himbara bank collective account</td></tr>
<tr><td>Togo Novissi (2020)</td><td>About 820,000 people</td><td>US$20-22 a month</td><td>Mobile money</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: what a missed cycle costs</h2>

<p>The reported figures let us compute what each programme delivers per recipient, and what one missed payment means.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Kenya:</b> KSh 3,523,794,000 divided by 1,761,897 people is exactly KSh 2,000. One late cycle is the entire month's support for someone over 70 with no other income.</li>
<li><b>Indonesia:</b> Rp5.8 trillion across about 8 million PKH families averages roughly Rp725,000 per family for the quarter's disbursement. For the 1.3 million families stuck in the post-office-to-bank migration, that is about Rp950 billion in aggregate support delayed, money that exists in the budget but not in kitchens.</li>
<li><b>Brazil:</b> R$13.84 billion over 19.34 million families works out at about R$716, slightly above the published average benefit of R$677.66. The difference is plausibly supplements and extraordinary payments counted in the total, which is a reminder to read programme totals and per-family averages as separate numbers.</li>
</ul>

<blockquote class="pull">A fast rail does not fix a slow budget, and a new channel can exclude as efficiently as an old one.</blockquote>

<h2>What travels, and what does not</h2>

<p>Across these systems, five lessons hold up:</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Registry before rails.</b> Brazil's family registry and India's Aadhaar-linked lists matter more than the payment channel. Togo had to invent a registry in weeks.</li>
<li><b>Choice beats a single provider.</b> The World Bank's G2Px material cites Zambia, where letting recipients choose among providers increased competition, lowered prices and extended rural service.</li>
<li><b>Cash-out density decides usefulness.</b> Bolivia's pension programme, studied by the World Bank, showed that limited access points forced recipients to withdraw everything and still travel far.</li>
<li><b>Migration is a risk event.</b> Indonesia's 2025 queue is the clearest example. Run channels in parallel, not in sequence.</li>
<li><b>Interoperability is the long-term payoff.</b> Brazil's emergency aid became a gateway to Pix. A G2P account that cannot pay a shop or receive <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-cross-border-bill-payments/">a bill payment</a> from a relative abroad is a dead end.</li>
</ol>

<p>The same logic applies in emergencies; our upcoming piece on digital cash for disaster relief looks at how pre-built G2P rails changed response times after floods and cyclones.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Indonesia's completion of the move from the post office to Himbara bank accounts</b> during 2025-26, and whether the exempt groups keep a non-bank option.</li>
<li><b>Brazil's monthly Bolsa Família releases</b> through the rest of 2026, especially whether the share of benefits spent via Pix rather than withdrawn keeps rising.</li>
<li><b>The next Global Findex round.</b> Findex has reported in 2014, 2017, 2021 and 2025; the next edition will show whether the 73% of G2P paid into accounts translates into more saving and digital spending.</li>
<li><b>India's next PM-KISAN instalment</b>, following the March and June 2026 releases, as the largest single-day G2P credit run anywhere.</li>
</ul>

<p>The countries that do G2P well have stopped thinking of it as a welfare cost centre. They treat it as the on-ramp to a country's payments system, and design it so the first transaction is not the last.</p>

<p class="note">This article describes public programmes for research purposes and is not financial or legal advice. Programme rules and amounts change; check the relevant government agency for current eligibility.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/g2p-payments-around-the-world.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Paying International Contractors and Staff: EOR, Costs and FX in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-payroll-contractors/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-payroll-contractors/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 08 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>EOR or contractor? What it really costs to pay staff abroad in 2026: platform fees, employer contributions, FX markups, misclassification, stablecoins.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-payroll-contractors.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A payroll manager at a 60-person software company in Lisbon runs the same ritual on the 25th of every month. Twelve people in Portugal go through local payroll. Nine more, in Poland, Brazil and the Philippines, are employed through a third-party employer of record. Another fourteen, scattered from Bengaluru to Buenos Aires, send invoices as contractors. Three of those contractors now ask to be paid in dollar stablecoins rather than their local currency. Each group has a different cost, a different legal risk and a different payment rail.</p>

<p>That mix is now normal for any company that hires outside its home market. What is less understood is how the costs stack up once you add platform fees, statutory contributions and the quiet margin on currency conversion, and how fast the legal ground under contractor arrangements is shifting. This piece walks through the real numbers.</p>

<h2>Three ways to pay someone abroad</h2>

<p>A company that wants to pay a person in another country has three basic options. It can set up its own local entity and run payroll there, which makes sense once headcount in a country gets into double digits. It can use an employer of record, a provider that legally employs the worker on the company's behalf, handles local tax and social security, and bills the company a monthly fee. Or it can engage the person as an independent contractor who invoices for services and handles their own tax.</p>

<p>The third option is cheapest and fastest. It is also the one regulators are watching most closely, because a contractor who works full-time, on a fixed schedule, for one client, under that client's direction, often looks very much like an employee.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Model</th><th>Typical platform cost</th><th>Who carries employment risk</th><th>Best fit</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Own local entity</td><td>Setup, accounting and legal costs; no per-head fee</td><td>The company</td><td>Ten or more staff in one country</td></tr>
<tr><td>Employer of record</td><td>About $199 to $699 per employee per month, by region</td><td>Mostly the EOR, as legal employer</td><td>Small teams in many countries</td></tr>
<tr><td>Independent contractor</td><td>About $19 to $49 per contractor per month on management platforms</td><td>The company, if misclassified</td><td>Genuine project or part-time work</td></tr>
<tr><td>Contractor paid in stablecoins</td><td>Platform fee plus on-chain and off-ramp costs</td><td>Same as contractor, plus custody questions</td><td>Workers in high-inflation economies</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The fee ranges come from a 2026 pricing comparison by <a href="https://alcor.com/employer-of-record-cost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alcor</a>, which found EOR fees of roughly $599 to $699 per employee per month for global platforms in the US and Eastern Europe, $399 to $699 in Latin America and from about $199 in Southeast Asia. Contractor management fees ran from about $19 to $49 a month. The same analysis warned that surcharges, FX margins and per-event fees can add 15% to 30% to the quoted platform fee, which is the number finance teams most often miss.</p>

<h2>What an employee abroad really costs</h2>

<p>The platform fee is the smallest part of an EOR bill. The larger part is the employer's statutory contributions, which vary enormously. Alcor's 2026 figures for a $5,000 monthly salary put employer contributions at about 2.25% in Romania, around 20% in Poland, 26.3% in Mexico City and just over 30% in Colombia. A separate illustration from <a href="https://www.remotepass.com/blog/employer-of-record-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RemotePass</a> for a $60,000 salary implies on-costs of about 12% in the UAE, 15% in the UK, 21% in Germany and 68% in Brazil.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$599-699</b><span>typical global EOR fee per head per month</span></div><div class="stat"><b>15-30%</b><span>hidden surcharges on top of quoted fee</span></div><div class="stat"><b>~20%</b><span>employer contributions in Poland</span></div></div>

<h3>Worked example: one engineer, two contracts</h3>

<p>Take the Lisbon company above hiring a backend engineer in Poland on a gross salary of $5,000 a month.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Through an EOR:</b> $5,000 salary plus roughly $1,000 in employer contributions at about 20%, plus a $599 to $699 platform fee. Add 15% to 30% in surcharges on the fee and the platform line becomes about $690 to $910. Monthly cost: roughly $6,690 to $6,910, or $80,000 to $83,000 a year.</li>
<li><b>As a contractor:</b> the engineer would reasonably ask for more, say $6,000 a month, to cover their own social contributions and lack of paid leave. Add a $25 to $49 management fee. Monthly cost: about $6,025 to $6,049, or roughly $72,500 a year.</li>
</ul>

<p>The contractor route saves something like $7,700 to $10,600 a year on this one person. That saving is real. So is the exposure. If a Polish court or tax authority later decides the engineer was an employee, the company can owe back contributions, penalties and employment rights that wipe out several years of savings. The difference between the two contracts is, in effect, the price of transferring employment risk to someone else. Companies weighing these choices should take local legal and tax advice for each country.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The gap between an EOR invoice and a contractor invoice is the price of handing someone else your employment risk.</blockquote>

<h2>The legal ground is moving under contractors</h2>

<p>Europe is about to raise the stakes. The EU Platform Work Directive must be written into national law by 2 December 2026, according to an August 2026 analysis by <a href="https://www.littler.com/news-analysis/asap/eu-platform-work-directive-uncertainty-ahead-implementation-deadline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Littler</a>. Its core is a rebuttable presumption of employment for people working through digital platforms. In countries such as France, it shifts the burden of proof from the worker to the company. Spain and Belgium already have presumptions on the books from 2021 and 2023; several other states had not published draft laws by late summer.</p>

<p>The directive is aimed at delivery and ride-hailing platforms, not at a software firm with fourteen contractors. But the direction of travel is clear, and national courts tend to borrow reasoning across contexts. A company whose contractors are managed through software that assigns work, tracks hours and sets rates should assume that structure will be examined more closely after December.</p>

<p>India, one of the largest sources of remote contractors, is moving in a related direction. Its four labour codes took effect on 21 November 2025, as reported by <a href="https://www.storyboard18.com/amp/how-it-works/indias-labour-reforms-zepto-swiggy-eternal-among-platforms-to-pay-1-2-of-turnover-for-gig-workers-welfare-84622.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storyboard18</a>, and require aggregators in sectors such as delivery and ride-hailing to contribute 1% to 2% of annual turnover toward gig workers' social security, capped at 5% of payouts to those workers. That levy does not apply to a foreign company paying an independent developer, but it signals that India is building a formal social-security layer for non-traditional work.</p>

<h2>The currency layer nobody budgets for</h2>

<p>Every cross-border payroll run includes a foreign-exchange conversion, and that conversion is rarely at the mid-market rate. Providers typically lock a rate that includes a margin, and the margin is often not shown as a separate fee. On a contractor bill of $6,000 a month, a 1% spread over the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">mid-market rate</a> is $720 a year, roughly fifteen times a cheap contractor platform's annual fee. Across a team of fourteen contractors, the FX margin can easily exceed every other payroll cost except salaries.</p>

<p>The question of who bears currency risk also matters. If a contract is denominated in dollars and the worker's local currency weakens, the worker gains. If it is denominated in local currency, the company carries the swing. Data from Deel's <a href="https://deel.com/global-hiring-report-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 global hiring report</a>, drawn from more than one million worker contracts in 150-plus countries, found that 84.6% of Argentine workers chose to be paid in dollars rather than pesos in 2025, and that the dollar featured in five of the ten most common country-currency pairings. For a deeper treatment of how small firms can hedge this, see our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/">FX risk for small businesses</a>.</p>

<h2>Stablecoin payroll moves from niche to feature</h2>

<p>That preference for dollars is what is pulling stablecoins into payroll. A Pantera Capital compensation survey of about 1,600 people, reported by <a href="https://blockworks.com/news/stablecoins-salaries-2024-pantera-survey" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blockworks</a>, found that 9.6% were paid in crypto by the end of 2024, up from about 3% in 2023. More than 90% of those crypto salaries were in stablecoins, with USDC at 63% and USDT at 28.6%. The sample skews heavily toward crypto-industry workers, so it overstates adoption in the wider workforce. But it shows what happens when the option is offered.</p>

<p>The larger signal is from mainstream payroll. In June 2026, Deel began paying contractors with its own dollar stablecoin built on Stripe's stablecoin infrastructure, starting in Argentina, according to <a href="https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/deel-deploys-stripe-stablecoin-stack-dlusd-contractors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant</a>, with a potential reach of about 1.5 million contractors across 150 countries. Its hiring report lists Argentina, Cameroon, South Korea, Turkiye and Vietnam among the countries where contractors most often choose stablecoins.</p>

<p>Our view: stablecoin payouts solve a real problem for workers in high-inflation economies, and they can cut settlement time from days to minutes. They do not remove the hard parts. The worker still has to convert to local currency for rent and groceries, often at an off-ramp spread. Tax treatment varies by country. And the company still has to classify the worker correctly. A <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payment</a> is a faster rail, not a different legal relationship. The total stablecoin supply of about $306 billion as of October 2026 is large enough to make this practical; regulation such as the US <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/genius-act-rules-implementation/">GENIUS Act rules</a> will decide how mainstream it becomes.</p>

<h2>A practical checklist for finance teams</h2>

<ol>
<li><b>Map each worker to a model on purpose.</b> Contractors should look like contractors: defined deliverables, their own tools, freedom to work for others. If not, budget for an EOR.</li>
<li><b>Ask for an all-in quote.</b> Platform fee, onboarding fee, termination fee, deposit and the FX margin, expressed as a percentage over mid-market.</li>
<li><b>Decide who carries currency risk.</b> Put the currency of pay in the contract and review it annually.</li>
<li><b>Treat stablecoin payout as an option, not a default.</b> Let the worker choose, and keep a fiat route available.</li>
<li><b>Recheck the EU picture after December.</b> Any EU-based worker on a platform-style arrangement needs a fresh classification review once national laws pass.</li>
</ol>

<p>For the business-to-business side of these flows, including supplier and agency payments, see our overview of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments in 2026</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>2 December 2026:</b> the transposition deadline for the EU Platform Work Directive. Expect several member states to miss it and a wave of national guidance in early 2027.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027:</b> the latest date on which the US GENIUS Act's stablecoin framework takes effect, 18 months after enactment, unless final regulations arrive sooner. Payroll providers have tied wider stablecoin rollouts to this clarity.</li>
<li><b>Late 2026:</b> whether Deel extends its stablecoin contractor payouts beyond Argentina, and whether rival payroll providers follow with USDT as well as USDC options.</li>
<li><b>Through 2026-27:</b> state-level rules under India's labour codes, which will shape how the gig-worker social-security levy is collected.</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-payroll-contractors.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Digital Wallets 2026: 56% of Global E-commerce, Country by Country</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-wallets-global-market-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-wallets-global-market-2026/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>Digital wallets took 56% of global e-commerce and 33% of in-store value in 2025. What Worldpay&#x27;s data shows for China, India, Brazil, the US, UK and 2030.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-wallets-global-market-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At a fruit stall in a Hangzhou wet market there is no card terminal, only a laminated QR code taped to the scale. In a Hyderabad pharmacy the code is printed on a plastic stand next to the till, and the speaker on the counter announces each payment out loud. At a Target in Ohio the shopper still taps a phone on a card reader, and the payment travels over the same card rails it would have used in 2005. All three are counted as "digital wallet" payments in the industry's most quoted dataset. They are not the same thing, and the differences explain where the market goes next.</p>

<h2>The headline numbers for 2025</h2>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>56%</b><span>of global e-commerce value paid by wallet, 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>33%</b><span>of global in-store (POS) value</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$13.8T</b><span>wallet spending across 42 markets</span></div></div>
<p>Worldpay's <a href="https://www.globalpayments.com/insights/gpr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Payments Report 2026</a>, built on a survey of more than 63,000 consumers across 42 markets plus transaction modelling, found that digital wallets accounted for 56% of online and 33% of in-person spending in 2025. Total wallet spending across those markets came to more than $13.8 trillion, according to <a href="https://paymentexpert.com/2026/04/01/digital-wallets-worldpay-gpr-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Expert's breakdown of the report</a>.</p>
<p>The trend lines behind those figures are long. In the previous edition, Worldpay put cash at 15% of global in-store spending in 2024, down from 44% a decade earlier, and smartphones at 57% of global e-commerce spend, up from 19% in 2014, as <a href="https://www.digitaltransactions.net/cash-use-slips-as-digital-payments-grow-says-worldpay-survey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Transactions reported</a>. Global e-commerce was worth $6.8 trillion in 2024 and is forecast to pass $10 trillion by 2030.</p>
<p>One definitional point matters for everything that follows. Worldpay's "digital wallet" category includes pass-through card wallets such as Apple Pay and Google Pay, stored-balance wallets such as PayPal, super-apps such as Alipay and WeChat Pay, and the apps that sit on top of account-to-account systems such as India's UPI and Brazil's Pix. The share figures measure the consumer's interface, not the rail underneath.</p>

<h2>Country by country: the same label, different plumbing</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Market (2025)</th><th>Wallet share of e-commerce</th><th>Wallet share of POS</th><th>What sits underneath</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>China</td><td>89% (Alipay, WeChat Pay)</td><td>87%</td><td>Super-app balances and linked bank accounts</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>68%</td><td>61%</td><td>UPI, account-to-account</td></tr>
<tr><td>Germany</td><td>52%</td><td>n/a</td><td>Stored-balance and bank-linked wallets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brazil</td><td>42% (Pix)</td><td>34% (Pix)</td><td>Pix, central-bank instant payments</td></tr>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>39%</td><td>17%</td><td>Mostly cards</td></tr>
<tr><td>Global (42 markets)</td><td>56%</td><td>33%</td><td>Mixed</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Source: Worldpay Global Payments Report 2026, via Payment Expert. Worldpay's own US article gives the US e-commerce share as 40%.</p>
<p>Read down the right-hand column and the global wallet story splits into two quite different markets.</p>
<p><b>Card-backed wallets.</b> In the US, wallets took around 40% of online value but only 17% in stores, against a 33% global average, per <a href="https://worldpay.com/insights/articles/what-63000-shoppers-just-told-us-about-paying" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Worldpay's US analysis</a>. Credit cards still carried 32% of online and 40% of in-store value directly. When an American pays with a phone, the wallet usually holds a tokenised card, and the merchant pays the same card interchange it would have paid for plastic. In the previous edition, Worldpay found 40% of US wallet users loaded a credit card as their primary funding source.</p>
<p><b>Account-to-account wallets.</b> In India and Brazil, the wallet is a front end to a public instant-payment system. India's UPI processes around 802 million payments a day as of September 2026, and Pix's dominance in Brazil shows up directly in Worldpay's numbers. Here, the wallet competes with cards rather than riding on them. Our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI's global expansion</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Pix and Drex</a> cover the systems themselves.</p>
<p>The distinction is not academic. A card-backed wallet changes the checkout experience but leaves the economics of card acceptance mostly intact: the issuer, network and acquirer still take their share, and the wallet provider negotiates its cut with banks. An account-to-account wallet can strip those layers out, which is why merchants in India and Brazil have pushed customers toward QR payments and why card networks in those markets have had to fight for in-store share. When people argue about whether wallets are "disrupting" cards, the honest answer is that it depends entirely on the country.</p>
<p>Wallets are also becoming the place where credit is sold. In the US, buy now, pay later took 6% of e-commerce value in 2025 and is forecast to grow 13% a year through 2030, according to Worldpay, while in Germany it reached 18% of online value. Much of that credit is offered inside wallet checkouts rather than as a separate payment method.</p>
<p>China is a third model again: two private super-apps that are both wallet and rail for most of the economy, with 89% of e-commerce and 87% of in-store value.</p>

<h2>India: a wallet market with a market-share cap</h2>
<p>India's wallet market is enormous and highly concentrated. PhonePe and Google Pay together handled 79% of UPI payments in May 2026, the first time their combined share had dropped below 80%, and the top three apps including Paytm held 87%, <a href="https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/phonepe-google-pay-combined-upi-market-share-drops-below-80-for-first-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Business reported</a>. UPI now carries more than 23 billion payments a month.</p>
<p>The National Payments Corporation of India has long proposed capping any single app at 30% of UPI volume. On 31 December 2024 it pushed the compliance deadline back by two years, to 31 December 2026, <a href="https://www.angelone.in/news/market-updates/npci-extends-market-share-cap-on-upi-apps-by-another-two-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angel One reported</a>. At that time PhonePe alone processed 7.4 billion of 15.4 billion monthly UPI payments.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">India built a public rail so that no company would own payments, then watched two apps take four in five transactions.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: what a 30% cap would actually require</h2>
<p>Take UPI at 23 billion payments a month, the figure Outlook Business cites. A 30% cap means no app may exceed 6.9 billion monthly payments.</p>
<ol>
<li>If PhonePe and Google Pay hold 79% between them, they process about 18.2 billion payments a month (23 x 0.79).</li>
<li>Under a cap, the two together could process at most 13.8 billion (2 x 6.9).</li>
<li>That leaves roughly 4.4 billion payments a month, around 19% of all UPI volume, that would have to move to other apps.</li>
<li>For scale, the entire long tail beyond the top three held about 13% in May 2026, or about 3 billion payments. Smaller apps would need to more than double their volume to absorb the shift, assuming Paytm's share stays flat.</li>
</ol>
<p>That arithmetic is why the deadline has been extended before, and why the 31 December 2026 date is the single most important wallet event in India this year. The figures are approximations using a single month's share; actual compliance would depend on how NPCI measures and phases the cap.</p>

<h2>Europe: opening the iPhone's tap-to-pay</h2>
<p>Europe's wallet story is about access rather than adoption. On 11 July 2024 the European Commission made binding Apple's commitment to give third-party wallets free access to the iPhone's NFC chip in host card emulation mode, without using Apple Pay or Apple Wallet, for ten years across the European Economic Area, with a monitoring trustee and fines of up to 10% of annual turnover for breaches, according to the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/fin/ip_24_3706/IP_24_3706_EN.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Commission's press release</a>. Users can set a rival app as the default for contactless payments. The UK is outside the scope.</p>
<p>That matters because it allows banks, national schemes and the European Payments Initiative's Wero to compete at the till on iPhones without paying Apple. Worldpay's 2026 report cites both Wero and open NFC as forces reshaping European payments. Germany already shows how much room there is: wallets took 52% of online value, the highest share in Western Europe, with PayPal cited by 70% of online shoppers. In the UK, wallet spending reached £269 billion in 2025 and is forecast to hit £453 billion by 2030, a 68% increase, while cards still took 69% of in-store value. The age gap is wide: 66% of UK 18 to 24-year-olds named a wallet as their top online payment method, against 29% of those aged 55 to 64 and 23% of those over 65.</p>

<h2>Cross-border wallets: Alipay+ and linked rails</h2>
<p>The next frontier is wallets that work abroad. Alipay+ connects 1.8 billion users to 100 million merchants across 14 markets, per the Worldpay data, letting a traveller pay with a home-country wallet at a foreign merchant's QR code. UPI, Pix and Southeast Asian real-time systems are being linked in similar ways, a subject we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/project-nexus-instant-payments/">our piece on Project Nexus</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payments around the world</a>.</p>
<p>For travellers and freelancers, this changes the comparison with prepaid travel and crypto cards, which we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">our crypto cards explainer</a>. A home wallet accepted abroad removes a currency conversion step that cards often hide in their FX rate.</p>

<h2>Where crypto and stablecoins fit</h2>
<p>So far, barely at all at the checkout. Worldpay estimates that direct crypto payments are 0.19% of global transaction value, though it describes stablecoins as a credible cross-border option. That gap is the honest starting point for anyone claiming crypto wallets will challenge Apple Pay or UPI. The growth in crypto spending runs mostly through cards linked to crypto balances, which settle on card rails and show up in Worldpay's data as card or wallet payments. Self-custody wallets are a different market entirely, discussed in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026/">self-custody adoption piece</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>31 December 2026:</b> NPCI's deadline for the 30% UPI market-share cap. Another extension would confirm that the cap is a negotiating tool rather than a rule.</li>
<li><b>Payment apps at the till:</b> Worldpay forecasts payment apps will power 46% of global POS value by 2030, worth $15.6 trillion, driven by QR adoption in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.</li>
<li><b>US in-store adoption:</b> the previous edition forecast wallets rising from 16% of US in-person value in 2024 to 30% by 2030. The 2025 figure of 17% suggests that path is slower than expected.</li>
<li><b>Wero and open NFC in Europe:</b> whether bank-led wallets on iPhones take meaningful share from card wallets in 2027.</li>
<li><b>BNPL inside wallets:</b> Worldpay forecasts $500 billion of global e-commerce BNPL value by 2030, much of it embedded in wallets.</li>
</ul>
<p>The wallet has already won the interface. The open question for the rest of the decade is which rail it sits on, and who earns the fee. In the US the answer is still the card networks. In India and Brazil it is the state-built rail. In Europe, regulators have just opened the door for a third answer.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/digital-wallets-global-market-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>How NRIs Invest in India in 2026: Routes, Tax and Money Flows</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>How NRIs invest in India in 2026: deposits, PIS shares, mutual funds, bonds, property and GIFT City, with tax rates, new limits and RBI flow data.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nri-investment-routes-india.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Between April 2025 and February 2026, non-resident Indians put just $0.91 billion of fresh money into FCNR(B) foreign currency deposits, according to RBI data. Then, in the seven weeks from 8 June to 31 July 2026, they put in $36.7 billion. Nothing about the account changed except its price. The swing is the clearest evidence there is that NRI money is not loyal to any one route into India. It goes where the after-tax, after-currency return is best, and the routes differ far more on those two counts than on headline rates.</p>

<p>This guide maps the main ways NRIs and OCI holders invest in India in 2026, what each costs in tax, and what the latest data says about where the money is actually going. It is neutral by design: no product picks, and nothing here is investment advice. Returns, taxes and currency risk depend on your situation, so talk to a qualified adviser before committing money.</p>

<h2>Where NRI money sits today</h2>

<p>Bank deposits remain the largest pool. At the end of December 2025, NRI deposits outstanding stood at $169.27 billion, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/nri-deposit-flows-fall-16-to-11-2-bn-in-apr-dec-2025-shows-rbi-data-126022001182_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a> from RBI data: $100.79 billion in NRE accounts, $34.85 billion in FCNR(B) and $33.63 billion in NRO. In April to December 2025, inflows fell 16 percent to $11.20 billion, entirely because FCNR(B) inflows collapsed from $6.46 billion to $2.04 billion while NRE and NRO inflows rose. By February 2026, <a href="https://oga-prod.angelone.in/news/economy/rbi-data-shows-24-drop-in-nri-deposit-inflows-to-11-04-billion-in-april-february-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fiscal-year inflows were down 24 percent</a> on the year.</p>

<p>Then the rupee broke down. It hit a record <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/business/markets/rupee-falls-to-record-low-of-9625-against-us-dollar-in-early-trade-4006721" target="_blank" rel="noopener">96.25 to the dollar on 18 May 2026</a> as Brent crude topped $111. The RBI responded in June with a concessional swap facility for banks raising fresh three to five year FCNR(B) deposits. Its own tally showed <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63274" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$36.7 billion of FCNR(B) money by 31 July</a>. A deposit that removes currency risk, paying a better rate, beat everything else on offer.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$169.3B</b><span>NRI deposits outstanding, December 2025</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$36.7B</b><span>FCNR(B) raised 8 June to 31 July 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>12.5%</b><span>Tax on long-term listed equity gains</span></div></div>

<h2>The routes, side by side</h2>

<p>The table compares the main routes on what funds them, whether the money can go back abroad, and how India taxes the return for a non-resident. Tax figures are drawn from <a href="https://nriinformation.com/banking/tds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 withholding summaries</a> and <a href="https://nriinformation.com/taxation/india-budget-2026-nri-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Budget 2026 commentary</a>.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Route</th><th>Funded from</th><th>Repatriable?</th><th>Indian tax on returns (non-resident)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>NRE deposit</td><td>Foreign earnings</td><td>Yes, fully</td><td>Interest exempt</td></tr>
<tr><td>FCNR(B) deposit</td><td>Foreign earnings, in foreign currency</td><td>Yes, fully</td><td>Interest exempt</td></tr>
<tr><td>NRO deposit</td><td>Indian income</td><td>Up to USD 1M a year of capital</td><td>Interest taxed; 31.2% TDS by default</td></tr>
<tr><td>Listed shares (repatriable)</td><td>NRE or remittances</td><td>Yes</td><td>12.5% long-term above Rs 1.25 lakh; 20% short-term; dividends 20% TDS</td></tr>
<tr><td>Equity mutual funds</td><td>NRE or NRO</td><td>Depends on funding account</td><td>Same rates as listed equity</td></tr>
<tr><td>Debt mutual funds (bought from April 2023)</td><td>NRE or NRO</td><td>Depends on funding account</td><td>Slab rates; 30% TDS</td></tr>
<tr><td>Corporate bonds</td><td>NRE, NRO or remittances</td><td>Depends on funding</td><td>Interest TDS 20% if bought in foreign exchange, else 30%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Residential property</td><td>Any NRI account</td><td>Two NRE-funded homes outside the NRO cap</td><td>Long-term gains 12.5%, no indexation</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Surcharge and a 4 percent cess sit on top of these rates. Your country of residence may also tax the same income, with credit for Indian tax under a treaty. The table's key column is the second one: the account that funds an investment fixes whether the proceeds can leave. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE, NRO and FCNR guide</a> explains why.</p>

<h2>Deposits: still the default, for good reasons</h2>

<p>The appeal of NRE and FCNR(B) deposits is simplicity. The interest is exempt in India, there is no market risk, and the money can go back abroad at any time. The trade-off is currency. An NRE deposit is in rupees, so a 6 or 7 percent rupee return can be erased in dollar terms by a bad year for the currency, as 2026 showed. FCNR(B) removes that risk but is term-only, from one to five years, and in normal times pays rates tied to dollar or pound benchmarks rather than Indian ones.</p>

<p>NRO deposits make sense mainly for money that is already in India, such as rent or sale proceeds. Their interest is taxed, and the default withholding of 31.2 percent is high for most people. A tax treaty rate, with the right paperwork, can cut that.</p>

<p>One more deposit detail is often missed. An NRE deposit can be pledged for a loan in India without limit, subject to the bank's margin, but the loan itself cannot be sent abroad, and the deposit cannot be broken early while the loan is outstanding. For families who want liquidity in India without giving up the tax-free status of their savings, that is a useful option. It is also a reminder that the rules on these accounts are set by the RBI's deposit regulations, not by individual banks, so the core terms do not vary much between lenders.</p>

<h2>Shares and mutual funds</h2>

<p>An NRI can buy listed Indian shares directly, on a repatriable basis through an account designated for the RBI's portfolio investment scheme, or on a non-repatriable basis from NRO funds. Mutual funds can be bought from either NRE or NRO money, and repatriability follows the source. Some fund houses limit investment by residents of the US and Canada because of reporting rules in those countries, so the route open to an NRI in Houston can be narrower than for one in Dubai.</p>

<p>Two 2026 changes matter. First, from tax year 2026-27, the ceiling on a single non-resident investor's holding in one listed company rises from 5 percent to 10 percent, and the combined limit for all such investors from 10 percent to 24 percent. Second, securities transaction tax on derivatives went up: options premium from 0.10 to 0.15 percent and futures from 0.02 to 0.05 percent. For long-term investors in cash equities, the first change is mostly irrelevant and the second does not apply. For NRIs who trade futures and options, costs rose meaningfully.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The account you fund an investment from decides more about your return than the investment you pick.</blockquote>

<h2>A worked example: Rs 10 lakh, four wrappers</h2>

<p>Consider an NRI in Singapore with Rs 10 lakh to invest for a year. The returns below are illustrative assumptions; the tax treatment is as published for a non-resident, before surcharge.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>NRE fixed deposit at an assumed 6.5 percent:</b> Rs 65,000 of interest, no Indian tax. Net Rs 65,000.</li>
<li><b>NRO fixed deposit at an assumed 7 percent:</b> Rs 70,000 of interest, 31.2 percent withheld, or Rs 21,840. Net Rs 48,160 unless a treaty rate is claimed.</li>
<li><b>Equity fund held just over a year, assumed gain of Rs 1.5 lakh:</b> 12.5 percent on the Rs 25,000 above the Rs 1.25 lakh exemption is Rs 3,125, plus cess. Net about Rs 1.47 lakh, but with real risk of a loss instead.</li>
<li><b>Debt fund bought after April 2023, assumed gain of Rs 70,000:</b> taxed at slab rates, with 30 percent TDS of Rs 21,000 plus cess. Net under Rs 49,000, similar to the NRO deposit.</li>
</ul>

<p>The pattern is stark. Since the 2023 change, debt funds have lost their tax edge for non-residents and look much like a taxed deposit. NRE deposits win on certainty and tax. Equity wins only if you accept volatility, and in all four cases the result in Singapore dollars depends on what the rupee does over the year.</p>

<h2>Property and GIFT City</h2>

<p>Property remains a large emotional and financial destination for NRI money, but its rules are the strictest. NRIs and OCI holders can buy residential and commercial property, not agricultural land. On sale, the buyer withholds tax at 12.5 percent plus surcharge and cess on long-term gains, generally on the full price unless the seller gets a lower deduction certificate. From 1 October 2026 a resident buyer can deduct that TDS using a PAN instead of a TAN, which removes one practical obstacle. The FEMA side is covered in our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a> guide.</p>

<p>GIFT City's International Financial Services Centre offers a different proposition: foreign currency deposits and funds held in India but outside the domestic currency regime. Interest on certain IFSC bank deposits is described in <a href="https://getbelong.com/blog/nre-accounts-tax-free.md" target="_blank" rel="noopener">industry guidance</a> as exempt for non-residents. The IFSC is still small next to the NRE and FCNR(B) pools, and anyone considering it should confirm the tax position for their specific product.</p>

<h2>What the data tells you</h2>

<p>Three conclusions stand out. First, NRI money responds to currency risk more than to rates: FCNR(B) inflows collapsed in 2025 when the rupee looked stable and exploded in 2026 when it did not. Second, the NRE pool, at roughly $100 billion, is the bedrock, built from steady salary savings rather than opportunistic flows. Third, the tax system increasingly favours simple routes: deposits are exempt, equity is taxed lightly on long holdings, and debt funds and NRO deposits are taxed at full rates. For the tax mechanics on money already in India, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a>; for the cost of getting it there, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">the cost of sending money home</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>30 September 2026:</b> scheduled close of the RBI's FCNR(B) swap window and of the temporary removal of rate ceilings on long-dated FCNR(B) and NRE deposits. If it closes early or is extended, rates on new deposits will move.</li>
<li><b>1 October 2026:</b> PAN-based TDS for resident buyers of NRI property comes into force.</li>
<li><b>Tax year 2026-27:</b> the higher 10 percent and 24 percent listed-company limits for non-resident investors apply.</li>
<li><b>Monthly RBI NRI deposit data:</b> the August and September figures will show how much of the swap-window money was new and how much was switched from NRE accounts.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article is general information about investment routes and tax rules, not investment, tax or legal advice. It does not recommend any product, bank or fund. Confirm your eligibility, tax position and currency exposure with a qualified adviser. If you plan to return to India, our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/">moving back checklist</a> explains what happens to each holding.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nri-investment-routes-india.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>India Crypto Regulation 2026: 30% Tax, 1% TDS, FIU-IND and RBI Stance</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-crypto-regulation-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/india-crypto-regulation-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>India&#x27;s crypto rules in 2026: the 30% tax and 1% TDS, FIU-IND registration under PMLA, the RBI&#x27;s caution and why the discussion paper keeps slipping.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/india-crypto-regulation-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A diamond trader in Surat buys ₹2 lakh of bitcoin on a domestic exchange in January and sells it in June for ₹3 lakh. On the same app he also loses ₹50,000 on an altcoin. Under Indian tax law he owes tax on the full ₹1 lakh gain, cannot subtract the loss, and has already had ₹3,000 withheld at source on the sale. India has not passed a crypto law, yet that trade is tightly regulated. That is India in 2026: no statute that says what crypto is, but a tax code and an anti-money-laundering regime that treat it very seriously.</p>

<p>This piece sets out the rules that actually bind Indian users and platforms today, who enforces them, where the Reserve Bank of India stands, and why the long-promised government discussion paper on crypto has still not appeared. We take no side on whether India should ban, license or encourage crypto. The aim is to describe the system as it is.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>30%</b><span>flat tax on gains from virtual digital assets</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1%</b><span>TDS on the value of each transfer above thresholds</span></div><div class="stat"><b>49</b><span>platforms registered with FIU-IND in FY2024-25</span></div></div>

<h2>Legal, taxed and unregulated: the three-word summary</h2>

<p>Crypto is not illegal in India. The RBI's April 2018 circular barring banks from serving crypto businesses was struck down by the Supreme Court in IAMAI v. RBI on 4 March 2020. Since then no law has replaced it. There is no licensing regime for exchanges, no consumer-protection framework specific to crypto, and no recognition of crypto as money or a security.</p>

<p>What exists instead are two working regimes bolted on from outside. The Income-tax Act defines "virtual digital assets" and taxes them harshly. The Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) treats platforms as reporting entities. The Finance Ministry's own public line, repeated in a <a href="https://newsonair.gov.in/fiu-ind-cracks-down-on-15-vda-service-providers-over-pmla-non-compliance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2026 statement</a>, is that crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Authority</th><th>Role in crypto today</th><th>Main tool</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>CBDT / Income Tax Department</td><td>Taxes VDA gains and collects TDS</td><td>30% tax, 1% TDS, Schedule VDA in ITR, exchange reporting</td></tr>
<tr><td>FIU-IND</td><td>AML supervisor for VDA service providers</td><td>PMLA registration, suspicious transaction reports, penalties, URL takedowns</td></tr>
<tr><td>GST authorities</td><td>Indirect tax on platform services</td><td>18% GST on trading fees</td></tr>
<tr><td>RBI</td><td>Monetary and payments authority; issues the e-rupee</td><td>Public warnings, policy input, CBDC pilots</td></tr>
<tr><td>Department of Economic Affairs</td><td>Owns overall crypto policy</td><td>Discussion paper, still unpublished</td></tr>
<tr><td>Parliament Standing Committee on Finance</td><td>Studying VDAs and the way forward</td><td>Hearings, reports with recommendations</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>The tax regime: 30% flat, no losses, 1% at source</h2>

<p>The Finance Act 2022 created the VDA tax rules that still apply. Gains from transferring a VDA are taxed at a flat 30%, plus surcharge where applicable and a 4% cess, which takes the minimum effective rate to 31.2%. Only the cost of acquisition is deductible, so exchange fees, network fees and advisory charges are not. Losses on one VDA cannot be set off against gains on another, or against any other income, and cannot be carried forward.</p>

<p>On top of that sits a 1% tax deducted at source on the consideration for a transfer. The annual threshold below which TDS does not apply is ₹50,000 for specified persons and ₹10,000 for others, according to <a href="https://www.patronaccounting.com/blog/crypto-vda-taxation-income-tax-act-2025-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a guide to the rules under the new Act</a>. Domestic exchanges deduct and deposit it. The TDS is credited against the final liability, but it ties up working capital for active traders and leaves a paper trail on every sale.</p>

<p>These provisions, long known by their section numbers 115BBH and 194S, carry over into the Income-tax Act, 2025 that took effect on 1 April 2026, with renumbered sections and the same substance. Budget 2025 also widened the definition of VDA to cover crypto-assets that rely on cryptographic security and distributed ledgers, made reporting by platforms mandatory, and brought undisclosed VDAs into block assessment after searches, as <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/budget-2025-no-tax-relief-for-crypto-investors-new-compliances-introduced-125020300285_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. From 1 April 2026, reporting entities must file crypto transaction statements, with a penalty of ₹200 a day for not filing and ₹50,000 for inaccurate information.</p>

<p>Individuals report each transaction in Schedule VDA of their return. For NRIs, the same rules apply to Indian-source gains; our guide on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">NRI tax on money sent to India</a> covers the wider picture, and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-tax-by-country-2026/">our crypto tax comparison by country</a> shows how unusual the no-loss-offset rule is.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the Surat trader's bill</h2>

<p>Return to the trader from the opening. Assume he is a resident individual with other income below the surcharge threshold, and that he trades on an Indian exchange charging a 0.2% fee per trade.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Bitcoin gain.</b> Bought for ₹2,00,000, sold for ₹3,00,000. Taxable gain: ₹1,00,000. Fees on the buy and sell (₹400 and ₹600) are not deductible.</li>
<li><b>Altcoin loss.</b> ₹50,000 loss. It cannot reduce the bitcoin gain and cannot be carried forward.</li>
<li><b>Tax on the gain.</b> 30% of ₹1,00,000 is ₹30,000. Add 4% cess (₹1,200). Total: ₹31,200.</li>
<li><b>TDS already withheld.</b> 1% of the ₹3,00,000 sale, so ₹3,000, plus 1% on the altcoin sale proceeds. These are credited against the ₹31,200 when he files.</li>
<li><b>GST.</b> 18% GST on the ₹1,000 of bitcoin trading fees adds ₹180.</li>
</ol>

<p>His economic result across both trades is a net gain of ₹50,000. His tax bill is ₹31,200, or about 62% of what he actually made. That gap, created by the no-offset rule, is the single biggest reason Indian traders have been drawn to offshore platforms that do not deduct TDS. This is a simplified illustration, not tax advice; individual circumstances vary, and readers should consult a chartered accountant.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">India regulates crypto mainly through the tax return and the suspicious transaction report.</blockquote>

<h2>FIU-IND and PMLA: registration is mandatory, including offshore</h2>

<p>In March 2023 the government brought VDA service providers under PMLA. Platforms that exchange VDAs for fiat currency or transfer VDAs for customers are reporting entities and must register with the Financial Intelligence Unit-India, keep records, run KYC and file suspicious transaction reports. The obligation is activity-based: it applies to any platform serving Indian users, regardless of where it is located.</p>

<p>FIU-IND's annual report for 2024-25 counted 49 registered VDA service providers as of 31 March 2025, 45 onshore and 4 offshore, and penalties of about ₹28 crore on non-compliant platforms over the year, including a ₹9.27 crore fine on one offshore provider, according to <a href="https://www.zigram.tech/article/fiu-india-vdasp-compliance-2024-25-crypto/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a summary of the report</a>. The unit has escalated since. In October 2025 it issued notices to 25 offshore platforms, and on 9 September 2026 it ordered 15 more, including Bitunix, DigiFinex, Pionex and WhiteBIT, to take down apps and URLs serving Indian users.</p>

<p>Our view: FIU-IND has become India's de facto crypto regulator by default. Registration is the closest thing to a licence that exists, and the takedown power gives it real teeth. But it is an AML supervisor, not a market regulator. It does not police custody, solvency, listing standards or market abuse, which leaves users of a failed platform with few remedies outside court.</p>

<h2>Where the RBI stands</h2>

<p>The RBI has been the most consistent sceptic in Indian policy. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in November 2025 that the central bank takes a very cautious approach to crypto, adding that the government will have the final say, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-government-consider-stablecoin-framework-diverge-rbi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph reported</a>. He also brushed aside pressure to respond to US stablecoin policy by pointing to India's 24/7 payment systems. UPI now handles about 802 million payments a day as of September 2026, which makes that argument harder to dismiss.</p>

<p>The RBI's preferred digital money is its own. The e-rupee has processed more than 150 million transactions worth over ₹34,000 crore since its December 2022 launch, according to figures cited in Parliament, though daily volumes have fallen from a peak near one million in December 2023 to roughly 100,000. For the details see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">our digital rupee explainer</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">our e-rupee vs UPI comparison</a>.</p>

<p>Reports in July 2026 citing internal government submissions said the RBI supports banning private cryptocurrencies, on the argument that formal regulation would lend them legitimacy. That is consistent with its stance since 2018, and it puts the RBI at odds with parts of government that have floated a stablecoin framework.</p>

<h2>The discussion paper that keeps slipping</h2>

<p>The Department of Economic Affairs has been drafting a crypto discussion paper since 2022. In May 2025 it was described as in its final drafting stages. It still has not been published, and <a href="https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/08/25/indias-crypto-law-hits-another-wall-as-parliament-cancels-finance-ministrys-vda-hearing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reporting by The Crypto Times</a> counts at least five occasions on which it was reportedly shelved, with RBI opposition cited as the main reason.</p>

<p>Parliament has meanwhile moved on its own. The Lok Sabha Standing Committee on Finance, chaired by Bhartruhari Mahtab, has taken evidence on a study titled "A Study on Virtual Digital Assets (VDAs) and Way Forward" from the RBI, CBDT, FIU-IND, ICAI, IFSCA, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs and several exchanges. On 23 July 2026, its 36th report, on the Securities Markets Code, 2025, recommended an interim self-regulatory framework for crypto overseen by SEBI or the RBI. A DEA hearing set for 27 August 2026 was cancelled eight days before without a stated reason.</p>

<p>The scale of what is at stake is not small. India topped the <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/369420/india-leads-global-crypto-adoption-chainalysis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chainalysis 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index</a>, leading every sub-category. Figures raised in the Budget 2026-27 debate suggested that around 73% of Indian VDA trading takes place on foreign exchanges, which, if accurate, means most activity sits beyond the TDS net that the tax regime relies on.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Winter session of Parliament (late 2026).</b> Whether the Standing Committee finalises its VDA study and what it recommends on a regulator.</li>
<li><b>The DEA discussion paper.</b> Any publication would be the first formal statement of government policy on crypto. Watch for whether it treats stablecoins differently from other crypto.</li>
<li><b>First filings under the new Income-tax Act.</b> Returns for 2026-27, due in 2027, will be the first under the Income-tax Act, 2025, with platform transaction statements now feeding into tax records.</li>
<li><b>More FIU-IND takedowns.</b> After 25 notices in October 2025 and 15 in September 2026, further action against unregistered offshore platforms looks likely.</li>
<li><b>International reporting.</b> A CBDT notification of 5 March 2026 reportedly brought crypto, CBDCs and e-money into the scope of financial assets for FATCA/CRS reporting, which matters for NRIs holding crypto abroad. For the global AML picture see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">our FATF Travel Rule explainer</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article describes Indian law and policy as of August 2026, with later developments noted. It is not tax, legal or investment advice. Readers should consult a chartered accountant or lawyer about their own situation.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/india-crypto-regulation-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Direct Benefit Transfer in India: ₹53 Lakh Crore and What Still Leaks</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>India&#x27;s DBT has moved over ₹53 lakh crore across 320 schemes. How it works, what the ₹5.1 lakh crore savings claim measures, and where money still leaks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/direct-benefit-transfer-india.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In a block office in Barmer, Rajasthan, the most common complaint on a Monday morning is not that a benefit was cut. It is that the money went somewhere. A widow's pension landed in an old account she no longer uses; a farmer's instalment bounced because his Aadhaar was linked to a different bank; a ration card was struck off because the fingerprint reader could not read hands worn down by forty years of work. Direct Benefit Transfer, the machinery behind all three, is the largest government payments system in the world by number of recipients. It is also the place where India's welfare state meets the limits of its own data.</p>

<p>This piece looks at DBT as a payments system rather than a political slogan: how much it moves, how a rupee travels from a ministry to a bank account, what the official savings figure actually measures, and where the gaps sit in 2026.</p>

<h2>The scale, in the government's own numbers</h2>

<p>The <a href="https://dbtbharat.gov.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DBT Bharat portal</a> run by the DBT Mission in the Cabinet Secretariat is the official scoreboard. At the time of writing it shows cumulative transfers of ₹53,79,284 crore, a little under ₹54 lakh crore, routed through 320 schemes across 56 ministries. For the current financial year, 2026-27, it reports ₹2,61,900 crore moved in 322 crore individual transactions so far.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>₹53.8L cr</b><span>cumulative DBT transfers</span></div><div class="stat"><b>320</b><span>schemes across 56 ministries</span></div><div class="stat"><b>₹5.14L cr</b><span>estimated gains to March 2025</span></div></div>

<p>Two numbers explain why this matters. The first is the shift in what subsidies cost the state. A Finance Ministry assessment published by <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/apr/doc2025421543301.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PIB in April 2025</a>, drawing on work by the BlueKraft Digital Foundation, found subsidies fell from an average of 16% of total central expenditure in 2009-2013 to 9% in 2023-24, even as beneficiary coverage rose sixteen-fold, from 11 crore to 176 crore. The second is the size of individual schemes. PM-KISAN alone released its 23rd instalment in June 2026, more than ₹18,880 crore to over 9.44 crore farmers, taking cumulative payouts above ₹4.46 lakh crore since the scheme began in February 2019.</p>

<p>The 176 crore figure is beneficiary records across schemes, not people. One household can appear in PDS, LPG, PM-KISAN and a scholarship scheme at once. That distinction matters later.</p>

<h2>How a DBT rupee actually travels</h2>

<p>DBT is often described through the JAM trinity: Jan Dhan accounts, Aadhaar identity and mobile phones. That is the consumer-facing story. The plumbing is more specific, and most failures happen in it.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Sanction.</b> A ministry or state department approves a beneficiary list and a payment file. Since a December 2014 directive, central schemes must run DBT through the Public Financial Management System (PFMS), and a 2017 Department of Expenditure order made onboarding mandatory for central sector schemes.</li>
<li><b>Routing.</b> PFMS pushes the file to the sponsor bank. A May 2017 memorandum requires DBT payments to be routed through NPCI.</li>
<li><b>Address resolution.</b> If the payment is Aadhaar-based, NPCI's mapper looks up which bank account is currently linked to that Aadhaar number. This is the Aadhaar Payments Bridge (APB). Whichever account was seeded most recently wins.</li>
<li><b>Credit.</b> The destination bank credits the account and returns a success or a reason code. Failed credits come back to PFMS and, in theory, to the department for correction.</li>
<li><b>Cash-out.</b> The citizen withdraws at a branch, an ATM, or a business correspondent using Aadhaar-enabled payments.</li>
</ol>

<p>The DBT Mission's own <a href="https://dbtbharat.gov.in/static-page-content/spagecont?id=4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">payments resource page</a> is a useful map of the rules: it lists the APB standard operating procedure, the mapper notifications from 2017, and a separate set of circulars on avoidable returns and payment failures. The existence of that last folder tells you something. Failure handling has been a standing agenda item since at least a January 2019 inter-ministerial meeting.</p>

<p>Step 3 is the clever part and the fragile part. Mapping by Aadhaar means a government does not need to collect and verify a bank account number for each person. It also means a single seeding change, sometimes done by a bank employee during an unrelated account opening, can silently redirect a pension.</p>

<h2>The savings claim, read carefully</h2>

<p>The headline efficiency number is the DBT Mission's <a href="https://dbtbharat.gov.in/static-page-content/spagecont?id=18" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimated gains table</a>: ₹5,14,201.92 crore up to March 2025, of which ₹83,063.87 crore was added in 2024-25 alone. The breakdown is revealing.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Scheme</th><th>Estimated gains to Mar 2025 (₹ crore)</th><th>Records removed (as reported)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>PDS (food)</td><td>3,12,977.81</td><td>6.36 crore ration cards</td></tr>
<tr><td>MGNREGS</td><td>74,888.19</td><td>1.32 crore job cards (FY22 to FY25)</td></tr>
<tr><td>PAHAL (LPG)</td><td>74,031.34</td><td>4.09 crore connections</td></tr>
<tr><td>PM-KISAN</td><td>22,106.14</td><td>2.12 crore ineligible beneficiaries</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fertiliser</td><td>18,699.89</td><td>158 lakh tonnes less retail sales</td></tr>
<tr><td>Minority scholarships</td><td>2,296.81</td><td>37.77 lakh beneficiaries</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total (all schemes)</td><td>5,14,201.92</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Three things stand out. Food subsidy accounts for about 61% of the total, so the national number is mostly a story about ration cards. Several schemes show zero new gains in 2024-25, which suggests the estimates are updated unevenly. And the page gives no formula. The figures are counterfactuals: what the government would have spent had the deleted records kept drawing benefits. Some of those records were ghosts and duplicates. Some were real people who failed a verification step. The table cannot tell them apart, and the government does not claim it can.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A deleted record is a saving on the ledger whether it was a ghost or a grandmother.</blockquote>

<p>That is not an argument that the savings are fake. Independent research has found real effects. The World Bank's <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/8325e21eaf7ab04cd8a8eede4d5e06da-0050112023/original/DPI-Workshop-Why-this-matters-Julia-Clark-Georgina-Marin.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">G2Px team cites</a> a 41% fall in leakages in employment and pension programmes after biometric payments were introduced, from a 2016 study by Muralidharan and co-authors, and a 43% reduction in payment delays for a maternal health cash transfer after it went digital. The honest reading is that DBT saved a lot of money and also pushed some eligible people out, and the official figure blends both.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one household's DBT year</h2>

<p>Take a hypothetical smallholder family in Nashik district, Maharashtra: a farmer, his wife aged 38, and two children. Using scheme rules published by the government:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>PM-KISAN:</b> ₹6,000 a year, paid as three instalments of ₹2,000. The arithmetic of the June 2026 release checks out: ₹18,880 crore divided across 9.44 crore farmers is ₹2,000 each.</li>
<li><b>Maharashtra's Ladki Bahin scheme:</b> ₹1,500 a month for eligible women aged 21 to 65 in families earning up to ₹2.5 lakh a year, or ₹18,000 a year.</li>
</ul>

<p>That is ₹24,000 a year arriving by DBT, before LPG subsidy, ration entitlements or any scholarship. Now introduce one failure. If the wife's eKYC is not completed, her ₹1,500 stops. Over a year, the household loses ₹18,000, three times what PM-KISAN pays. If the farmer's Aadhaar was re-seeded to a new account at a cooperative bank he rarely visits, the PM-KISAN money still arrives, just somewhere he does not look. Neither failure shows up as a refusal. Both show up, in aggregate, as savings or as successful credits.</p>

<p>This is not hypothetical at scale. A Maharashtra verification drive reported by <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/cag-flags-3-541-cr-excess-spend-in-maharashtra-s-ladki-bahin-scheme-126071300497_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard in July 2026</a> removed over 9.2 million beneficiaries from Ladki Bahin. Roughly 6.2 million of those failed mandatory eKYC; about 1.6 million exceeded the income limit; around 29,000 were men. The same article covered a CAG finding that the state department overspent its authorised budget by ₹3,541 crore. Both stories are true at once: the scheme had genuine leakage, and its biggest single deletion category was a paperwork step.</p>

<h2>Where it still leaks, and who falls through</h2>

<p>Leakage in a modern DBT system rarely looks like a middleman skimming cash. It looks like this:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Exclusion by mandate.</b> MGNREGS made Aadhaar-based payment mandatory from 1 January 2024. Data compiled by the NREGA Sangharsh Morcha and reported by <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/governance/mgnrega-how-mandating-aadhaar-based-payment-is-pushing-rural-india-into-poverty-forcing-migration-93729" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Down To Earth</a> showed that as of 27 December 2023, 34.8% of registered workers and 12.7% of active workers were not eligible for the Aadhaar payment route. The ministry's figure was that 98.31% of active workers were seeded. The gap between "seeded" and "eligible" is where wages stall.</li>
<li><b>Deletions in bulk.</b> The same reporting cites job card deletion rates of 19% of workers in 2022-23. The DBT Mission's table credits 1.32 crore removed job cards between FY22 and FY25 as a saving.</li>
<li><b>Mis-direction.</b> Money credited to the wrong account counts as a success in the system's own data.</li>
<li><b>Recovery.</b> PM-KISAN has recovered ₹416.75 crore from ineligible beneficiaries as of December 2025, according to a <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/mar/doc2026319829701.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PIB backgrounder</a>, a small figure next to the ₹22,106 crore in estimated gains from removing 2.1 crore records.</li>
</ul>

<p>For families abroad supporting parents in India, these failures are practical. A parent's pension or ration entitlement can quietly stop, and the fix usually requires a visit to a bank or a common service centre. Our guide on caring for parents from abroad covers the paperwork side; UIDAI's bank mapper lets anyone check which account an Aadhaar is currently linked to.</p>

<h2>The last mile is still cash</h2>

<p>DBT digitised the government's side of the transaction. The citizen's side often still ends with a withdrawal. Jan Dhan accounts, which passed 56 crore by the scheme's eleventh anniversary in August 2025, gave almost every household a destination for the money. Whether they then use it digitally is a different question, and the answer varies sharply by state, gender and age.</p>

<p>This is where India's payments stack has moved faster than its welfare stack. UPI processes over 800 million payments a day, but a pension credited to an Aadhaar-seeded account is usually withdrawn as cash through a business correspondent with a fingerprint reader. The open question for the next phase is whether benefits can be delivered in forms people spend directly, from <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupi-digital-vouchers/">e-RUPI vouchers</a> to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/">programmable e-rupee</a>, without rebuilding the exclusion problems in a new format.</p>

<p>For a wider view of how India's identity, payments and data layers fit together, see our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">digital public infrastructure and India Stack</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Next PM-KISAN instalment.</b> The scheme released its 22nd instalment in March 2026 and its 23rd in June 2026. The next release on that cycle is the clearest monthly test of DBT capacity: around 9.4 crore credits in one day.</li>
<li><b>The DBT Mission's update to estimated gains for 2025-26.</b> The current table runs to March 2025. Watch whether new entries separate verified ghosts from verification failures. They currently do not.</li>
<li><b>Union Budget 2027-28, expected on 1 February 2027.</b> PM-KISAN was allocated ₹60,000 crore for 2026-27. Any shift in subsidy design, especially for food and fertiliser, will flow straight through DBT.</li>
<li><b>Maharashtra's Ladki Bahin re-verification.</b> The state cut its allocation to ₹26,500 crore for the current year from ₹36,000 crore in 2025-26. How many removed beneficiaries are reinstated after eKYC will be the best natural experiment India has on exclusion versus leakage.</li>
</ul>

<p>DBT has made India's welfare spending far more traceable than it was in 2013. Being traceable is a different thing from being accurate. The next gains will come less from deleting records and more from making sure the right ones keep getting paid.</p>

<p class="note">This article explains public schemes and payment systems. It is not legal or financial advice. Eligibility rules change; check the relevant scheme portal or a local government office for your situation.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/direct-benefit-transfer-india.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Import and Export Payments: LC vs Open Account, India Rules 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/import-export-payments-guide/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/import-export-payments-guide/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>Letter of credit, documentary collection or open account? How each works, what it costs, and India&#x27;s 2026 FEMA rules on EDPMS, IDPMS and 9-month realisation.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/import-export-payments-guide.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A knitwear exporter in Tiruppur ships two containers of T-shirts to a buyer in Manchester on 90-day open account terms. The goods clear UK customs in a few weeks. The money is another story. If it arrives late, or short, or not at all, the shipping bill sits open in the Reserve Bank's export tracking system, and the exporter's bank starts asking questions. Choosing how you get paid is the most important commercial decision in a trade deal after price, and in India the rules for it changed on 1 October 2026.</p>

<p>This guide explains the four standard ways to settle an international sale, what each one really protects you against, and how India's new foreign exchange regulations affect timelines, small-value shipments and unpaid bills. It is written for exporters, importers and the finance people who have to close the paperwork afterwards.</p>

<h2>The four ways to get paid, ranked by risk</h2>

<p>Every trade payment method is a trade-off between the exporter's risk and the importer's. Whoever moves first carries the exposure.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Cash in advance.</b> The buyer pays before shipment. Safest for the exporter, riskiest for the importer, who has no goods and no leverage. Common for first orders, small buyers and custom manufacturing.</li>
<li><b>Letter of credit (LC).</b> The buyer's bank promises to pay the exporter if the exporter presents documents that exactly match the LC terms. Most LCs worldwide are issued under the ICC's UCP 600 rules. A confirmed LC adds a second bank, often in the exporter's country, which also guarantees payment.</li>
<li><b>Documentary collection.</b> The exporter's bank sends shipping documents to the buyer's bank, which releases them only against payment (documents against payment) or against the buyer's signed acceptance of a bill of exchange (documents against acceptance). Banks act as messengers, not guarantors. These are governed by the ICC's URC 522 rules.</li>
<li><b>Open account.</b> The exporter ships and invoices, and the buyer pays on agreed terms, often 30 to 90 days. Cheapest and simplest, with all the credit risk on the exporter. Most trade between established partners now runs this way, usually backed by credit insurance or receivables finance.</li>
</ul>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Method</th><th>Exporter's risk</th><th>Importer's risk</th><th>Bank cost</th><th>Where it fits</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Cash in advance</td><td>Lowest</td><td>Highest</td><td>Just the wire</td><td>New buyers, small orders, custom goods</td></tr>
<tr><td>Letter of credit</td><td>Low (very low if confirmed)</td><td>Low to medium</td><td>Highest: issuance, amendment, negotiation, confirmation fees</td><td>Large tickets, new markets, weaker buyer credit</td></tr>
<tr><td>Documentary collection</td><td>Medium</td><td>Low</td><td>Moderate: collection and handling charges</td><td>Repeat buyers you trust but want document control with</td></tr>
<tr><td>Open account</td><td>Highest</td><td>Lowest</td><td>Lowest: just the wire</td><td>Established relationships, often with insurance or factoring</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The bank cost column is deliberately qualitative. LC pricing depends on the issuing bank, the buyer's credit, the country, the tenor and whether you need confirmation, and banks quote it per transaction. The point is the order: LCs cost the most because a bank is taking risk; open account costs the least because nobody but you is.</p>

<h2>Letters of credit: what actually goes wrong</h2>

<p>LCs are often described as guaranteed payment. They are a guarantee of payment against compliant documents, which is a different thing. Banks examine paper, not goods. A misspelt port name, a late shipment date, an invoice amount that does not match, or a missing certificate can make the presentation discrepant, at which point the issuing bank can refuse to pay or ask the buyer whether to waive the discrepancy. A buyer whose market has moved against them has every incentive to refuse.</p>

<p>The practical protections are dull but effective:</p>
<ol>
<li>Review the draft LC before the buyer's bank issues it. Ask for anything you cannot control, such as a third-party inspection certificate from a named agency, to be removed or loosened.</li>
<li>Check the expiry date and place, the latest shipment date and the presentation period against your real production schedule, not your hopeful one.</li>
<li>Prepare documents with a checklist built from the LC text, line by line.</li>
<li>For new markets or weaker issuing banks, price in confirmation. You are buying protection against the issuing bank and the country, not the buyer.</li>
</ol>

<blockquote class="pull">A letter of credit pays against paperwork. Treat the paperwork like the product.</blockquote>

<h2>Documentary collections: the middle path most SMEs overlook</h2>

<p>Collections are cheaper than LCs and safer than open account. Under documents against payment, the buyer cannot take the bill of lading, and so cannot claim the goods, until they pay their bank. The weakness is that nobody promises the buyer will pay. If they walk away, you own goods sitting in a foreign port, accruing demurrage. Collections work best with buyers you have dealt with before, in markets where you could resell or re-ship the goods if needed.</p>

<p>Documents against acceptance is closer to open account: the buyer gets the documents by signing a time draft and pays at maturity. It is useful mainly because an accepted bill is easier to discount with a bank than a plain invoice.</p>

<h2>Open account and the cost of the wire</h2>

<p>Open account is where most cross-border trade has ended up, because it is fast and cheap to administer. The cost you do pay is the bank transfer itself. The G20's benchmark for business payments measures fees plus FX markup on a $20,000 transfer; the global average is about 1.6%, against a <a href="https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P131021-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">target of 1% by end-2027</a> set by the Financial Stability Board, according to <a href="https://fxcintel.com/research/reports/ct-b2b-payments-2025-roundup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXC Intelligence's analysis</a> of the latest data. On a $60,000 shipment, that average works out to about $960. Our deeper look at <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payment costs</a> explains where that money goes, and our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/">FX risk for small businesses</a> covers the bigger exposure: currency movement during a 90-day credit period.</p>

<h2>India's 2026 rules: what changed on 1 October</h2>

<p>The RBI notified the <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=13277" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Foreign Exchange Management (Export and Import of Goods and Services) Regulations, 2026</a> on 13 January 2026, effective 1 October 2026. According to <a href="https://www.lkslaw.com/insights/articles/rbi-releases-fema-2026-export-import-trade-regulations-what-businesses-need-to-know" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lakshmikumaran and Sridharan</a>, they replace the 2015 export regulations, the export and import Master Directions and 167 circulars. The headline changes:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Realisation period: back to nine months.</b> The period for bringing export proceeds home had been stretched from 9 to 15 months by a November 2025 notification, and the 2026 regulations initially kept 15. A further amendment notified on 22 September 2026 cut it back to <b>nine months</b> from shipment for goods and from the invoice date for services, and from 18 to <b>12 months</b> for exports invoiced or settled in rupees, as <a href="https://www.scconline.com/blog/?p=397451" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCC Online reported</a>. Banks can grant extensions under their own policies.</li>
<li><b>Import payments follow the contract.</b> The old default of six months from shipment, extendable to three years, is gone. The timeline is now whatever the underlying contract says, with bank-approved extensions.</li>
<li><b>Easier set-off.</b> Banks can allow export receivables to be netted against import payables with the same overseas party or its group companies, within the realisation period, and goods can now be set off against services.</li>
<li><b>Services need an export declaration.</b> Service exporters must file an export declaration form within 30 days of the end of the invoice month, a new obligation; for software it replaces the SOFTEX form.</li>
<li><b>Self write-off removed.</b> The old 5% self write-off (10% for status holders) has gone. Reductions and non-realisation now go through the bank, with justification.</li>
<li><b>No formal caution list.</b> In its place, <a href="https://www.mondaq.com/article/1736644" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mondaq's summary</a> notes, an exporter with receivables outstanding more than one year past the due date may export only against full advance payment or a confirmed irrevocable LC.</li>
</ul>

<p>That last rule links payment method choice directly to compliance. One bad debt left to drift can force every later shipment onto the most expensive terms. For more on the export side, see our companion piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/indian-exporters-payments-rules/">payment rules for Indian exporters</a>.</p>

<h2>EDPMS and IDPMS, explained without the acronyms</h2>

<p>EDPMS (Export Data Processing and Monitoring System) and IDPMS (its import twin) are the RBI databases that match every shipping bill or bill of entry against the money that moves. Customs data flows in when goods move; your bank has to record the payment and close the entry. Open entries are the regulator's signal that something is unpaid, unreported or unexplained.</p>

<p>Small traders got real relief in October 2025. Under <a href="https://texprocil.org/images/circulars/1759473372-RBI_guidelines_.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 12</a>, entries worth ₹10 lakh or less can be closed on the trader's own declaration that the money was received or paid, including reduced values, and declarations can be filed quarterly in bulk. The circular also told banks to keep charges on these small transactions proportionate and not to levy penal charges for regulatory delays. The 2026 regulations carry the ₹10 lakh route forward. The same <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=61341" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2025 package</a> extended the window for merchanting trade outlays from four months to six.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one exporter, two shipments</h2>

<p>A Tiruppur exporter makes two shipments under the 2026 rules.</p>

<p><b>Shipment A:</b> $60,000 of garments to a UK retailer, dollar-invoiced, shipped on 20 October 2026, on 90-day open account terms.</p>
<ul>
<li>Payment is due around 18 January 2027. The regulatory deadline for realisation is nine months from shipment: <b>20 July 2027</b>.</li>
<li>At the G20 average cost of 1.6%, the transfer costs roughly $960 in fees and FX markup.</li>
<li>The buyer pays $55,000 and disputes $5,000 for late delivery. Because the shipping bill is well above ₹10 lakh, the exporter must ask its bank to approve the reduction, with documents showing the dispute and settlement. There is no self write-off any more.</li>
<li>If the buyer never pays the remaining amount and it stays outstanding past <b>20 July 2028</b>, a year past the deadline, the exporter could be limited to full-advance or confirmed-LC terms on future shipments.</li>
</ul>

<p><b>Shipment B:</b> an $8,000 sample consignment to a new buyer in Dubai, invoiced in rupees and paid in advance.</p>
<ul>
<li>Rupee invoicing gives a 12-month realisation window rather than nine.</li>
<li>At today's exchange rates the bill is under ₹10 lakh, so the exporter can close the EDPMS entry on its own declaration, batched with other small bills in a quarterly filing.</li>
</ul>

<p>The lesson: the payment method chosen at contract stage decides how much paperwork and risk land on the finance team eight months later.</p>

<p class="note">This is a general explanation of the rules, not legal or tax advice. Authorised dealer banks now apply many provisions through their own published policies, so check with your bank and a qualified adviser for your specific transactions.</p>

<h2>Choosing a method: a short decision guide</h2>
<ol>
<li><b>First order with a new buyer, or a buyer in a market with currency controls:</b> advance payment or a confirmed LC.</li>
<li><b>Large ticket, established buyer, but a weak or unfamiliar issuing bank:</b> LC with confirmation.</li>
<li><b>Repeat buyer, goods you could resell elsewhere:</b> documents against payment.</li>
<li><b>Long relationship, strong buyer:</b> open account, ideally with credit insurance or receivables finance, and a calendar alert well before the nine-month deadline.</li>
<li><b>You both buy and sell with the same group:</b> ask your bank about set-off under the new rules before paying both legs through the banking system.</li>
</ol>

<p>Some exporters are also asking whether stablecoin settlement could replace parts of this chain. For Indian businesses, any such flow still has to fit the FEMA framework and bank reporting, so it is not a way around EDPMS. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a> sets out where it is used today.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Now through early 2027: bank SOPs.</b> The 2026 regulations push much discretion to authorised dealer banks, which are expected to publish their internal policies on extensions, advances and reductions. Compare them; they will differ.</li>
<li><b>December 2026: Swift's address update.</b> Swift deferred its November 2026 structured-address cut-off and promised new timing by December 2026. Poor address data is a growing cause of delayed trade payments. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/">ISO 20022 guide</a> covers what to fix.</li>
<li><b>12 June 2027: Swift trade message changes.</b> Swift's deferred SR 2026 release, now scheduled for that date, includes trade and other MT message changes that affect how banks exchange LC and collection messages.</li>
<li><b>20 July 2027:</b> the first nine-month deadline for goods shipped on 20 October 2026, a useful date to check your open EDPMS entries.</li>
<li><b>End-2027:</b> the G20 deadline for a 1% average cost on business payments, which on current data will be missed.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/import-export-payments-guide.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>MPC vs Smart Contract Wallets: Security, Recovery and Custody</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpc-vs-smart-contract-wallets/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpc-vs-smart-contract-wallets/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>MPC wallets vs smart contract wallets explained: how each signs, recovers and fails, ERC-4337 and EIP-7702 data, wallet-as-a-service and the Bybit lesson.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mpc-vs-smart-contract-wallets.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">On 21 February 2025, signers at the exchange Bybit approved what looked like a routine transfer from a cold wallet. The screen they saw was fake. Behind it, attackers had swapped the wallet's logic, and about $1.45 billion left the exchange in one of the largest thefts in financial history. The smart contracts did exactly what they were told. The weak point was the moment a human decided what to sign.</p>

<p>That incident sits at the centre of the most important design argument in digital asset custody. One camp splits the private key into pieces using multi-party computation (MPC). The other moves the security rules into the wallet itself, as a smart contract on the blockchain. Both exist to kill the single private key, the failure point behind most crypto losses. They do it in very different ways, with different costs, recovery models and blind spots.</p>

<h2>The problem both are solving</h2>

<p>A standard crypto wallet is controlled by one private key. Whoever holds it can move everything, instantly and irreversibly. Lose it and the funds are frozen forever; leak it and they are gone. For an individual that is stressful. For a company holding customer money it is unacceptable, which is why exchanges, fintechs and funds spent the past five years building alternatives.</p>

<p>The numbers explain the urgency. Chainalysis found that private key breaches at centralised services made up 88% of stolen value in the first quarter of 2025, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/382477/crypto-hack-2025-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. Individuals suffered too, with 158,000 personal wallet compromises over the year. The question is not whether to move beyond the single key. It is which replacement fails more gracefully.</p>

<h2>How MPC wallets work</h2>

<p>In an MPC wallet the private key never exists in one place. Instead, two or more parties each hold a share, and a cryptographic protocol lets them jointly produce a valid signature without ever assembling the full key. A typical consumer set-up keeps one share on the phone, one with the wallet provider and one in an encrypted backup. A typical institutional set-up spreads shares across servers, hardware modules and the devices of named approvers.</p>

<p>Three features make MPC attractive:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>It looks ordinary on-chain.</b> The output is a normal signature from a normal address. It works on any blockchain that uses standard signatures, which is why multi-chain businesses like it.</li>
<li><b>No extra gas.</b> Because the chain sees a single signature, there is no on-chain overhead per transaction.</li>
<li><b>Shares can be refreshed.</b> Providers can rotate shares without changing the address, so a leaked share can be made useless.</li>
</ul>

<p>The trade-off is that the rules live off-chain. Spending limits, approval quorums and allow-lists are enforced by the provider's software, not by the blockchain. If that software, or the provider itself, fails, the user depends on whatever recovery process the provider designed. MPC is also hard to audit from outside: the chain cannot show you how many parties approved a transaction.</p>

<h2>How smart contract wallets work</h2>

<p>A smart contract wallet, often called a smart account, puts the control logic on the blockchain. The wallet is a program that decides which signatures count, how many are needed, what limits apply, and how keys can be replaced. Multisig contracts were the first version; Safe, the largest, held $35.25 billion across 61.11 million accounts at the end of March 2026, according to its <a href="https://safefoundation.org/blog/safe-q1-2026-quarterly-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarterly report</a>.</p>

<p>Two standards made smart accounts mainstream on Ethereum and compatible chains:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>ERC-4337</b>, live since March 2023, created a separate flow for "user operations". Bundlers package them, a shared EntryPoint contract verifies them, and paymasters can cover gas so a user can pay fees in USDC or have an app pay for them, as <a href="https://www.alchemy.com/overviews/what-is-account-abstraction.md" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alchemy's overview</a> explains.</li>
<li><b>EIP-7702</b>, activated in Ethereum's Pectra upgrade on 7 May 2025, lets an ordinary address delegate to smart account code without moving funds or changing address. By October 2025 it was live on 25 mainnets, according to <a href="https://www.turnkey.com/blog/ethereum-networks-support-eip-7702" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turnkey</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>Adoption has moved quickly. Citing BundleBear data as of 16 September 2026, <a href="https://eco.com/support/en/articles/14797813-eip-7702-vs-erc-4337-two-smart-wallet-paths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eco</a> reported 1.28 billion cumulative ERC-4337 user operations from 66.6 million accounts, and 247.2 million EIP-7702 authorisations, with 57.8 million wallets holding a live delegation. Not every delegation is benign; security researchers have flagged contracts designed to sweep funds from users tricked into signing.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>66.6M</b><span>accounts that have used ERC-4337, Sep 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>57.8M</b><span>wallets with a live EIP-7702 delegation</span></div><div class="stat"><b>~60,000</b><span>extra gas per ERC-4337 transaction</span></div></div>

<h2>Side by side</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Question</th><th>MPC wallet</th><th>Smart contract wallet</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Where are the rules?</td><td>Off-chain, in provider software</td><td>On-chain, in the wallet contract</td></tr>
<tr><td>Chain support</td><td>Any chain with standard signatures</td><td>Chains that support the contract standard; deployed per chain</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gas overhead</td><td>None beyond a normal transfer</td><td>Roughly 60,000 extra gas for ERC-4337 validation</td></tr>
<tr><td>Recovery</td><td>Share refresh via provider or backup</td><td>Guardians, key rotation, time delays coded in</td></tr>
<tr><td>Auditability</td><td>Approvals invisible on-chain</td><td>Signers and thresholds visible on-chain</td></tr>
<tr><td>Fee sponsorship</td><td>Needs a separate relayer</td><td>Native through paymasters</td></tr>
<tr><td>Main failure mode</td><td>Provider outage or compromise</td><td>Contract bug or spoofed signing interface</td></tr>
<tr><td>Typical users</td><td>Exchanges, payment firms, funds, embedded fintech wallets</td><td>DAOs, treasuries, consumer smart wallets</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>In practice, the line is blurring. Many consumer smart wallets use passkeys or MPC to control the signer, then wrap it in a smart account for recovery and gas sponsorship. Many institutions run MPC for daily operations and keep reserve funds in an on-chain multisig. Hybrid is the default for anyone serious.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">MPC hides the rules inside a company; smart accounts publish them on-chain. Neither protects you from signing the wrong thing.</blockquote>

<h2>Recovery is where they really differ</h2>

<p>Ask what happens when a phone falls into the Hooghly. With an MPC consumer wallet, the user logs in on a new device, proves identity to the provider, and the provider helps generate a fresh share. Convenient, but the provider has a strong say in who gets access. With a smart account, recovery is written into the contract: a set of guardians, perhaps a spouse, a hardware key and a recovery service, can approve a new signer, often after a waiting period so a thief cannot drain funds immediately. <a href="https://wp.lcx.com/beyond-seed-phrases-evaluating-the-real-world-adoption-of-erc-4337-wallets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LCX</a> notes that some wallets deliberately build in such delays, trading speed for safety.</p>

<p>Neither model needs a seed phrase written on paper, which is the main reason they are spreading. The broader shift is covered in our report on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026/">self-custody wallet adoption</a>, and the basic custody choice in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">self-custody versus custodial wallets</a>.</p>

<h2>Wallet-as-a-service and the concentration question</h2>

<p>Few companies build wallets from scratch any more. They rent them. Wallet-as-a-service providers offer key management, either MPC or secure hardware enclaves, plus bundlers and paymasters for smart accounts, through an API. A money transfer app or digital bank can then give every customer a wallet without touching cryptography.</p>

<p>This is efficient and it concentrates risk. Two providers, Pimlico and Alchemy, handled about 65% of ERC-4337 user operations as of the first quarter of 2026, according to Eco's summary of BundleBear data. A serious outage or compromise at a dominant infrastructure provider would affect many apps at once. For payment companies, the questions to ask a vendor are blunt: who holds which key share, what happens if the vendor goes bankrupt, and can users leave with their funds without the vendor's cooperation? Firms using stablecoins for corporate treasury face the same diligence.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the cost of on-chain rules</h2>

<p>Consider a payments firm moving stablecoins for 10,000 transfers a month. Eco puts ERC-4337 validation overhead at roughly 60,000 gas per transaction compared with a plain wallet, and an EIP-7702 authorisation at roughly 50,000 gas.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Extra gas per month with ERC-4337:</b> 10,000 x 60,000 = 600 million gas.</li>
<li><b>Assume a low-fee network</b> at 0.01 gwei with ETH at an illustrative $3,000. 600 million gas x 0.01 gwei = 6 million gwei, or 0.006 ETH, about <b>$18 a month</b>.</li>
<li><b>Assume Ethereum mainnet</b> at an illustrative 2 gwei. The same overhead is 1.2 ETH, about <b>$3,600 a month</b>.</li>
<li><b>MPC on the same transfers</b> adds no gas, but the firm pays its key-management provider instead, and gets no on-chain proof of its approval rules.</li>
</ol>

<p>The lesson: on low-fee chains, the overhead of programmable accounts is trivial and the auditability is nearly free. On expensive chains, high-volume senders have a real incentive to use MPC or batch transactions. Gas prices and token prices move constantly, so firms should rerun the sums with live figures. Chain choice matters more than wallet type for this bill, as we discuss in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/best-blockchain-for-stablecoin-payments/">the best blockchain for stablecoin payments</a>.</p>

<h2>The Bybit lesson for institutional custody</h2>

<p>Bybit used a multisig smart wallet for its cold storage. Safe's forensic review found no vulnerability in its smart contracts; instead a compromised developer machine let attackers serve signers a disguised malicious transaction, according to a compilation of incident reports by <a href="https://deepstrike.io/blog/web3-security-statistics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DeepStrike</a>. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korean hackers.</p>

<p>The broader data points the same way. TRM Labs found that infrastructure and operational compromises made up about 15% of incidents in the first half of 2026 but about 76% of losses, per the same DeepStrike summary. CertiK counted $444.53 million lost to wallet compromises across just 33 incidents in that half-year. The losses are concentrated in a few catastrophic failures of keys, credentials and approval workflows.</p>

<p>For custodians, three conclusions follow. First, the signing interface is part of the security perimeter and needs independent verification, for example a second device that decodes and displays the transaction. Second, MPC and multisig are complements: MPC can protect each signer's key while the multisig enforces quorum on-chain. Third, policies such as allow-listed destination addresses and time locks on large transfers matter more than the cryptography. Compliance teams will recognise the same logic in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/aml-sanctions-crypto-compliance/">AML and sanctions controls</a>.</p>

<p class="note">This is general information, not security, legal or investment advice. Custody architecture for customer funds should be reviewed by qualified security professionals and counsel.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Safe's Q3 2026 report, expected late October 2026.</b> Watch whether assets secured keep rising after the record account growth of March.</li>
<li><b>Chainalysis crypto crime update, expected December 2026.</b> The key metric is whether private key and infrastructure compromises still dominate losses.</li>
<li><b>EIP-7702 delegation quality through 2026.</b> With 57.8 million live delegations as of September, expect more research separating genuine smart account upgrades from malicious sweeper contracts.</li>
<li><b>Full-year 2026 security reports from CertiK and TRM Labs, early 2027.</b> They will show whether the first-half pattern of few, huge infrastructure losses held.</li>
</ul>

<p>The MPC versus smart contract argument is no longer a contest with one winner. It is a question of where each belongs. MPC suits keys that must work across many chains with no on-chain footprint. Smart accounts suit funds that need rules everyone can verify. The firms that get custody right in 2026 use both, and spend as much effort on the approval screen as on the cryptography.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/mpc-vs-smart-contract-wallets.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Global Indian Diaspora in Numbers: 37M People, $135B a Year Home</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-indian-diaspora-economy/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/global-indian-diaspora-economy/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>How big is the Indian diaspora? MEA counts 37.3M overseas Indians, UN DESA 18.5M emigrants. Where they live, what they earn, remit and keep in Indian banks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-indian-diaspora-economy.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In the third week of June 2026, branch managers at small private banks in Thrissur and Kottayam started taking calls they had not taken in years. The Reserve Bank had just lifted the interest-rate ceiling on fresh long-term NRI deposits and agreed to absorb the hedging cost of dollar deposits for banks. Within four months, money that had sat in savings accounts in Houston, Sharjah and Leicester was moving home in volumes not seen since the 2013 rupee scare. That episode tells you more about the Indian diaspora than any population headcount: it is a demographic, yes, but it is also one of the largest and most rate-sensitive pools of foreign capital India can call on.</p>

<p>This piece puts numbers on that pool. How many people are we talking about, where do they live, what do they earn, how much do they send, and how much do they park? The answers depend heavily on which official count you trust, and the gaps between the counts are part of the story.</p>

<h2>Two ways to count, two very different totals</h2>

<p>There are two headline numbers for the Indian diaspora and they measure different things. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs counts people born in India who now live in another country. On that basis, <a href="https://www.dataforindia.com/international-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 18.5 million Indian-born people lived abroad in 2024</a>, about 6% of all international migrants and the largest national group in the world. In 1990 the figure was roughly 6.5 million. The UN series, published through its International Migrant Stock database, is the one demographers compare across countries.</p>

<p>India's Ministry of External Affairs uses a much wider net. Its <a href="https://www.mea.gov.in/population-of-overseas-indians" target="_blank" rel="noopener">population of overseas Indians</a> table, updated to January 2026, counts 17.76 million Non-Resident Indians (Indian citizens living abroad) and 19.52 million Persons of Indian Origin (foreign citizens with Indian ancestry), for a total of 37.28 million. The PIO count reaches back several generations: the 2.75 million people of Indian origin in Malaysia, the 1.72 million in South Africa and the 865,000 in Mauritius are mostly descendants of indentured and trading migrants from the 19th and early 20th centuries.</p>

<p>Neither number is wrong. They answer different questions. If you care about labour migration and remittances, the UN migrant stock and the MEA's NRI line are the relevant ones. If you care about cultural reach, philanthropy or political lobbying, the broader 37 million is closer to reality. Analysts who quote "35 million NRIs" are mixing the two.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>37.28M</b><span>overseas Indians, MEA (Jan 2026)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>18.5M</b><span>Indian-born migrants, UN DESA (2024)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$135.46B</b><span>remittances to India, RBI (2024-25)</span></div></div>

<h2>Where they live: the top host countries</h2>

<p>The MEA's country table shows a diaspora split along a clear line. In the Gulf, almost everyone is an Indian citizen on a work visa, because Gulf states rarely grant citizenship. In North America, Europe and Australia, a large share has naturalised and shows up as PIO. Southeast Asia, Africa and the Indian Ocean are dominated by old settler communities with very few current passport holders.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Country</th><th>NRIs (citizens)</th><th>PIOs</th><th>Total overseas Indians</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>United States</td><td>2,311,484</td><td>3,767,737</td><td>6,079,221</td></tr>
<tr><td>UAE</td><td>4,326,248</td><td>17,760</td><td>4,344,008</td></tr>
<tr><td>Canada</td><td>1,388,300</td><td>1,859,680</td><td>3,247,980</td></tr>
<tr><td>Malaysia</td><td>152,370</td><td>2,750,000</td><td>2,902,370</td></tr>
<tr><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>2,747,551</td><td>3,000</td><td>2,750,551</td></tr>
<tr><td>United Kingdom</td><td>369,000</td><td>913,836</td><td>1,282,836</td></tr>
<tr><td>Kuwait</td><td>1,036,389</td><td>2,356</td><td>1,038,745</td></tr>
<tr><td>Qatar</td><td>830,491</td><td>n/a</td><td>830,491</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Source: Ministry of External Affairs, population of overseas Indians, data as of January 2026. Country estimates are compiled by Indian missions and vary in method.</p>

<p>Two things stand out. First, the UAE alone holds about a quarter of all NRIs worldwide, more than the United States and Canada combined. Second, the six Gulf Cooperation Council states together account for close to half of Indian citizens abroad, which matches the UN finding that nearly half of Indian emigrants live in GCC countries. Canada's figure is the one to watch: 1.39 million NRIs reflects the student and work-permit surge of 2019-2023, and some of that cohort is now leaving or transitioning status as Ottawa tightens caps.</p>

<h2>Two diasporas with very different pay slips</h2>

<p>It is tempting to talk about "the diaspora" as one group. Economically it is at least two. The Gulf diaspora is overwhelmingly working-age, often male, on fixed-term contracts in construction, logistics, retail, health and hospitality, with families left behind in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Its members cannot settle permanently, so almost every surplus dirham is eventually headed home.</p>

<p>The Western diaspora looks nothing like that. Pew Research's <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/fact-sheet/asian-americans-indians-in-the-u-s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fact sheet on Indian Americans</a> puts the median household income of Indian-headed households at $151,200 in 2023, the highest of any Asian American origin group and well above the US median. About 77% of Indian Americans aged 25 and older hold at least a bachelor's degree, two-thirds are foreign-born, and the poverty rate is 6%. These households send money home too, but they also buy property, invest in Indian equities, fund start-ups and, increasingly, pay for parents' healthcare directly.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The Gulf diaspora sends wages home because it has no choice. The Western diaspora sends capital home when the price is right.</blockquote>

<p>That distinction matters for policy. Gulf remittances are steady and relatively insensitive to interest rates; they track oil prices, construction cycles and visa rules. Western flows are lumpier and respond to rate differentials, the rupee's direction and tax changes in the host country.</p>

<h2>The money home: $135 billion and shifting sources</h2>

<p>India received $135.46 billion in personal remittances in 2024-25, according to RBI balance-of-payments data, making it the world's largest recipient by a wide margin. The World Bank, which uses calendar years, had estimated <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/at-129-bn-india-top-recipient-of-remittances-this-year-world-bank-124121801266_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$129 billion for 2024</a>, out of roughly $685 billion flowing to all low- and middle-income countries. Put differently, close to one in every five remittance dollars sent to the developing world goes to India.</p>

<p>The more interesting shift is in where the money starts. The RBI's sixth remittance survey, covering 2023-24, found that <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/news/remittances-to-india-from-advanced-economies-surpass-gulf-inflows-rbi-125031901164_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">advanced economies overtook the Gulf</a> as the main source for the first time. The United States accounted for 27.7% of inflows, up from 23.4% in 2020-21. The UAE was second at 19.2%, and the UK rose sharply to 10.8% from 6.8%. The US, UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia together supplied more than half.</p>

<p>On the receiving side, Maharashtra's share fell to 20.5% from 35.2%, while Kerala nearly doubled to 19.7%. Tamil Nadu took 10.4%, Telangana 8.1% and Karnataka 7.7%. Maharashtra's drop partly reflects how banks book transfers (Mumbai has long been the clearing point for money ultimately destined elsewhere), and Kerala's rebound reflects better attribution as much as fresh migration. Transfers above Rs 5 lakh made up about 29% of value, a sign that a meaningful slice of "remittances" is really savings and investment, not grocery money.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what each diaspora sends per head</h2>

<p>Combining the RBI survey with the MEA population table gives a rough sense of intensity. The numbers are imperfect because the survey covers 2023-24 and the population count is January 2026, but the orders of magnitude are useful.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>United States:</b> 27.7% of $118.7 billion (total 2023-24 inflows) is about $32.9 billion. Divided by 6.08 million overseas Indians, that is roughly <b>$5,400 per person</b>. Divided only by the 2.31 million NRIs, it jumps to about $14,200.</li>
<li><b>UAE:</b> 19.2% of $118.7 billion is about $22.8 billion. Divided by 4.34 million overseas Indians (almost all NRIs), that is roughly <b>$5,250 per person</b>.</li>
<li><b>United Kingdom:</b> 10.8% of $118.7 billion is about $12.8 billion. Divided by 1.28 million overseas Indians, that is roughly <b>$10,000 per person</b>, and about $34,700 per NRI.</li>
</ul>

<p>The UAE figure is believable as household behaviour: a worker on a mid-level salary sending home a few hundred dollars a month. The UK figure is not, at least not as wages. It almost certainly captures transfers booked through London-based institutions, larger investment-style transfers and money sent by British citizens of Indian origin who do not appear as NRIs. The lesson is that per-head remittance comparisons across corridors say as much about plumbing as about people. For corridor-level detail, see our guides to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/usa-canada-to-india-remittance/">US and Canada to India transfers</a> and the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">Gulf to South Asia corridor</a>.</p>

<h2>The diaspora as a balance sheet</h2>

<p>Remittances are a flow. NRI deposits are a stock, and a large one. Outstanding NRI deposits in Indian banks stood at <a href="https://oga-prod.angelone.in/news/economy/rbi-data-shows-24-drop-in-nri-deposit-inflows-to-11-04-billion-in-april-february-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$167.58 billion at end-February 2026</a>, of which $33.72 billion was in FCNR(B) foreign-currency accounts. Fresh inflows had slowed to $11.04 billion over April 2025 to February 2026, down 24% from a year earlier, as the rate advantage on offer in India narrowed against US and Gulf deposit rates.</p>

<p>Then the RBI changed the arithmetic. On 8 June 2026 it opened an FCNR(B) swap window in which it bears the hedging cost for banks, and on 17 June it <a href="https://c4scourses.in/banking-finance/rbi-temporarily-withdraws-interest-rate-ceilings-on-fcnrb-and-nre-deposits-to-attract-nri-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">temporarily removed rate ceilings</a> on fresh FCNR(B) deposits of three to five years and NRE deposits of three years and above, until 30 September 2026. Some smaller banks began quoting around 7% on dollar deposits. SBI Research estimated the window could pull in $40-45 billion through FCNR(B) alone. Early data suggested the response was real: <a href="https://morungexpress.com/nri-deposit-inflows-surge-nearly-7-fold-to-3624-billion-in-april-july-fy27-rbi-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NRI deposit inflows rose nearly seven-fold to $36.24 billion</a> in April-July 2026.</p>

<p>This is the same playbook India used in 2013, and it works because the Western diaspora holds savings in dollars and responds to yield. It is also a reminder that these deposits carry costs: the RBI is effectively paying around 3-3.5% a year in hedging to attract them. If you are weighing the account types themselves, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE vs NRO vs FCNR accounts</a> covers repatriation and tax treatment, and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/">NRI investment routes</a> covers what else that money can buy. Neither is advice; check with a qualified adviser before moving savings.</p>

<h2>Frictions on the way home</h2>

<p>The money still leaks on the way. The World Bank's global average cost of sending $200 was 6.36% in the third quarter of 2025, and while India-bound corridors are cheaper than the average, small transfers from the Gulf through cash-based agents still pay noticeably more than bank-to-bank transfers from the US. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cost-of-sending-money-home-2026/">cost of sending money home</a> tracker breaks this down by corridor.</p>

<p>Host-country policy is adding friction too. Since 1 January 2026, the United States has levied a <a href="https://nriinformation.com/taxation/us-remittance-tax-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1% federal excise tax</a> on remittances funded with cash, money orders or cashier's cheques, under section 4475 of the Internal Revenue Code. Transfers funded from a US bank account or a US-issued card are exempt. For the salaried Indian American sending from a checking account the tax is irrelevant; for lower-income workers who use cash at a counter it is a direct cost, and it nudges more of the corridor onto bank and card rails.</p>

<p>Gulf states, meanwhile, are steadily formalising wage payments through payroll cards and wage protection systems, which tends to pull remittances out of informal channels and into the official numbers. Part of the long-run rise in recorded Indian remittances is simply better measurement.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>16 October 2026:</b> last date for banks to access the RBI's FCNR(B) swap for deposits raised between 8 June and 30 September. The next monthly RBI deposit releases will show how much of the summer surge was new money versus recycled savings.</li>
<li><b>December 2026:</b> the World Bank's next Migration and Development Brief, with its calendar-2026 estimate for India and early evidence on whether the US excise tax shifted volumes.</li>
<li><b>7-9 January 2027:</b> the 19th <a href="https://ddindia.co.in/2026/10/19th-pravasi-bharatiya-diwas-convention-to-be-held-in-kolkata-from-january-7-9-2027/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pravasi Bharatiya Divas in Kolkata</a>, organised by the MEA with the West Bengal government. Expect announcements on diaspora investment and possibly instruments in the spirit of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/diaspora-bonds-explained/">diaspora bonds</a>.</li>
<li><b>2026-27:</b> Canadian and UK visa changes. A shrinking student and temporary-worker pipeline to Canada would show up first in NRI counts and only later in remittances.</li>
</ul>

<p>Our view: the diaspora headcount will keep growing slowly, but its economic weight is shifting from wages to wealth. The Gulf will remain the backbone of household remittances for millions of families. The swing factor for India's external accounts, though, is now a few million well-paid professionals in North America and Europe deciding, month by month, whether a rupee deposit beats a money-market fund at home. Policymakers have noticed. The June 2026 measures were aimed squarely at them.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/global-indian-diaspora-economy.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>UAE Crypto Regulation 2026: VARA, CBUAE, ADGM, DFSA and CMA Explained</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>Who regulates crypto and stablecoins in the UAE: CBUAE payment token rules, VARA in Dubai, ADGM FSRA, DFSA and the new CMA, licences and capital compared.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">An electronics wholesaler in Deira gets a message from a buyer in Lagos: can he settle a container of phones in USDT? Five years ago the honest answer in the UAE was "probably, nobody is checking." Today it is "not like that." Under the Central Bank's payment token rules, a dollar stablecoin issued abroad can be used onshore mainly to buy other virtual assets, not to pay for goods. A licensed dirham token is the route the Central Bank wants merchants to use. That single rule captures how far the UAE has moved from crypto-friendly slogan to a dense, layered rulebook.</p>

<p>The difficulty for anyone outside the country is that there is no single UAE crypto regulator. There are at least five, plus the financial intelligence unit, and which one applies depends on where a firm is incorporated, what it does and who its customers are. This guide maps who covers what as of mid-2026, what each licence lets a firm do, and where the federal Central Bank has recently pulled the threads tighter.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>5</b><span>main regulators touching crypto in the UAE</span></div><div class="stat"><b>AED 500m</b><span>top criminal fine for unlicensed financial activity</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Sep 2025</b><span>new Central Bank law took effect</span></div></div>

<h2>Five regulators, three geographies</h2>

<p>Think of the UAE as three overlapping zones. Onshore UAE, including most ordinary free zones, falls under federal law. Dubai has its own emirate-level regulator for virtual assets. And two financial free zones, the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), run English common-law systems with their own financial regulators.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Regulator</th><th>Where it applies</th><th>What it covers in crypto</th><th>Key instrument</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE)</td><td>Federal, onshore</td><td>Stablecoins used for payments, licensed financial activity including via DeFi</td><td>Payment Token Services Regulation (2024); Federal Decree-Law No. 6 of 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>VARA</td><td>Dubai mainland and free zones except DIFC</td><td>Exchanges, brokers, custody, lending, transfer and other virtual asset services</td><td>Dubai Law No. 4 of 2022; VA Regulations 2023 and rulebooks</td></tr>
<tr><td>Capital Market Authority (CMA, formerly SCA)</td><td>Federal, onshore outside Dubai's VARA perimeter</td><td>Virtual assets as investments, dealing, custody, trading venues, advice</td><td>Federal Law No. 32 of 2025; CMA Decision No. 4/R.M/2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>ADGM FSRA</td><td>Abu Dhabi Global Market</td><td>Crypto exchanges, custody, fiat-referenced tokens used by authorised firms</td><td>FSMR and FSRA crypto rules</td></tr>
<tr><td>DFSA</td><td>DIFC</td><td>Crypto tokens, with a list of recognised tokens firms may use</td><td>DFSA crypto token regime</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Over all of them sits anti-money-laundering law, reporting to the UAE Financial Intelligence Unit and the FATF standards, including the Travel Rule for transfers between providers. We cover that in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fatf-travel-rule-crypto/">our explainer on the FATF Travel Rule</a>.</p>

<h2>The Central Bank: payment tokens and the dirham-first rule</h2>

<p>The CBUAE issued its <a href="https://cms.law/en/are/legal-updates/the-new-cbuae-payment-token-services-regulation-10-things-you-need-to-know" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Payment Token Services Regulation</a> as Circular No. 2/2024 in June 2024, with a one-year transition. It defines a payment token as a virtual asset that aims to keep a stable value by referencing a fiat currency, which in practice means stablecoins. It covers three services: issuing tokens, converting them, and holding or transferring them for others.</p>

<p>The rules split tokens into two classes:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Dirham payment tokens</b> need a full CBUAE licence and can be issued only by UAE-incorporated companies (onshore or ordinary free zones, but not DIFC or ADGM). They may be used for payments generally.</li>
<li><b>Foreign payment tokens</b> such as USDT or USDC need the foreign issuer to be registered rather than licensed. Onshore, they can be transferred, and accepted by merchants, only when used to buy virtual assets or virtual asset derivatives.</li>
</ul>

<p>Algorithmic stablecoins and privacy tokens are banned outright, along with services and promotion relating to them. Issuers must hold reserves; reports on the framework describe two options, either cash in a segregated dirham escrow account at a UAE bank, or at least 50% cash with the balance in UAE government bonds and CBUAE monetary bills of up to six months' average duration, according to <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/uae-central-bank-aed-stablecoin-approval" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph's report on the first approval</a>.</p>

<p>That first approval went to AED Stablecoin LLC for AE Coin, which received in-principle approval in October 2024. Others have followed. RAKBANK received in-principle approval for its own dirham token, and Network International said it would integrate AE Coin into point-of-sale and e-commerce systems, <a href="https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/business%2Fbanking%2Fuae-stablecoin-push-accelerates-as-network-rakbank-join-in-1.500401120" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gulf News reported in January 2026</a>.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The UAE welcomes dollar stablecoins as trading chips and wants dirham tokens as money.</blockquote>

<h2>The 2025 Central Bank law widened the net</h2>

<p>The bigger shift came with <a href="https://www.gibsondunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/uae-central-bank-issues-new-central-bank-law-consolidating-financial-sector-regulation.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Decree-Law No. 6 of 2025</a>, issued on 15 September 2025 and effective the next day. It repealed the 2018 Central Bank law and, in Article 62, extended the licensing perimeter to anyone who engages in, offers, issues or facilitates a licensed financial activity by any means, explicitly including virtual assets and decentralised finance. Technology providers and protocols that facilitate lending, payments or deposit-like products can fall inside it.</p>

<p>Three provisions matter for crypto firms:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Promotion is itself licensed.</b> Marketing a licensable activity to people in the UAE requires a licence, and the definition of communication is broad enough to reach online campaigns run from abroad.</li>
<li><b>Free zone licences are not a shield for retail.</b> Analysis by Gibson Dunn points out that federal law still applies in financial free zones, so a firm licensed only in DIFC or ADGM that targets UAE retail customers onshore faces federal exposure.</li>
<li><b>Penalties are heavy.</b> Carrying on licensed activity without a licence can bring imprisonment and a fine of AED 50,000 to AED 500 million.</li>
</ul>

<p>Existing institutions were given one year from the effective date to regularise, a window that ran to mid-September 2026 unless the CBUAE extends it, which the law allows. Our view: the law turns the Central Bank into the backstop regulator for anything that looks like money, whoever else has licensed the firm. Expect it to be used sparingly but visibly.</p>

<h2>VARA: Dubai's dedicated crypto regulator</h2>

<p>The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority was created by Dubai Law No. 4 of 2022 and runs on the Virtual Assets and Related Activities Regulations 2023 plus activity rulebooks. It licenses seven activities: advisory, broker-dealer, custody, exchange, lending and borrowing, management and investment, and transfer and settlement. A firm needs authorisation for each one it carries on.</p>

<p>VARA's rulebooks have moved fast. Version 2.0, issued in May 2025, tightened margin trading and token distribution rules, according to <a href="https://atblegal.com/regulatory-and-compliance/vara-virtual-assets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a regulatory overview by ATB Legal</a>. An updated Exchange Services Rulebook covering exchange-traded derivatives took effect on 31 March 2026. Enforcement has also become routine: in October 2025 VARA penalised 19 unlicensed firms, with reported fines of AED 100,000 to AED 600,000.</p>

<p>VARA covers mainland Dubai and its free zones except DIFC. A mutual recognition arrangement with the federal securities regulator, in place since September 2024, lets a VARA licence be recognised for serving the wider UAE outside the financial free zones. Its terms are being reset now that the federal regulator itself has changed.</p>

<h2>The CMA replaces the SCA</h2>

<p>On 1 January 2026 the Securities and Commodities Authority was replaced by the Capital Market Authority under Federal Law No. 32 of 2025, with a companion law on financial products. The CMA then issued <a href="https://www.horizlaw.ae/insights/new-virtual-asset-regulations-a-summary-of-cma-decision-no4r.m2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decision No. 4/R.M/2026</a> on virtual assets, which licenses eight activities: dealing as principal, dealing as agent, providing custody, arranging custody, operating a multilateral trading facility, investment advice, portfolio management and arranging deals. It works alongside VARA rather than replacing it, and does not apply in ADGM or DIFC.</p>

<p>The CMA decision is unusually precise on capital, which makes it useful for budgeting. Dealing as principal or agent requires the greater of AED 4 million or 25% of annual expenses. Custody requires AED 3 million or 35% of expenses. Advisory, arranging and portfolio management start at AED 1 million, and a trading facility at AED 500,000, each subject to the expenses test or risk-based capital if higher.</p>

<h2>ADGM and DIFC: approved-token lists</h2>

<p>The two financial free zones regulate crypto under their own common-law frameworks and take a list-based approach to stablecoins. Firms authorised by the DFSA in DIFC may only use crypto tokens the regulator has recognised. In February 2025 Circle's USDC and EURC became the <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/usdc-and-eurc-become-first-stablecoins-recognized-by-dubai-international-financial-centre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first stablecoins recognised in DIFC</a>. In ADGM, the FSRA recognised Ripple's RLUSD as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token in <a href="https://ripple.com/ripple-press/rlusd-recognized-as-accepted-fiat-referenced-token-for-use-within-abu-dhabis-adgm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">November 2025</a>, meaning FSRA-authorised firms can use it for regulated activities.</p>

<p>For institutional business this is the cleaner route: common law, English-language courts, and a regulator that publishes which tokens are acceptable. The catch, as above, is that it does not by itself license a firm to serve retail customers onshore.</p>

<h2>A worked example: licensing a Dubai-based crypto broker</h2>

<p>Take a hypothetical broker that wants to let UAE residents buy and sell crypto, hold it for them, and pay out to bank accounts. It expects annual operating expenses of AED 20 million.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Location choice.</b> Incorporated in a Dubai free zone other than DIFC, it falls under VARA and needs broker-dealer and custody authorisations, plus transfer and settlement if it moves tokens for customers.</li>
<li><b>Serving Abu Dhabi and Sharjah clients.</b> It relies on recognition of its VARA licence for the wider onshore UAE, whose terms are being updated under the CMA.</li>
<li><b>Capital benchmark.</b> If it instead sought a federal CMA licence to deal as principal, it would need the greater of AED 4 million or 25% of AED 20 million, so AED 5 million. Adding custody under CMA rules sets a separate floor of AED 3 million or 35% of expenses, which is AED 7 million at this cost base.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoins.</b> It can let customers use USDT or USDC to buy other virtual assets, provided the issuer is registered with the CBUAE. If it wanted to let customers pay merchants, it would need to use a licensed dirham token.</li>
<li><b>Marketing.</b> Any campaign aimed at UAE residents needs to fit both VARA's marketing rules and the CBUAE law's treatment of promotion as licensed activity.</li>
</ol>

<p>The capital figures here are regulatory floors, not total cost. Real set-up budgets also include compliance staff, audits, technology and licence fees, so anyone planning an application should get advice from a UAE-qualified regulatory lawyer.</p>

<h2>What this means for remittances, and what to watch</h2>

<p>The UAE is one of the world's largest sources of remittances, and the dirham-first rule has a direct effect on that business. A money transfer firm that wants to use stablecoins as a settlement leg onshore must either use a licensed dirham token or keep dollar stablecoins strictly within the virtual-asset exception. For a corridor overview see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uae-to-india-money-transfer/">our UAE to India transfer guide</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/gulf-to-south-asia-remittance-corridor/">our Gulf to South Asia corridor analysis</a>. For how the UAE fits against Singapore and Hong Kong, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-regulation-asia-gulf/">our Asia and Gulf stablecoin rules comparison</a>, and for the licence categories in plain terms, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-licences-explained-casp-vasp-mtl/">our guide to CASP, VASP and MTL licences</a>.</p>

<p>Three items to watch through 2026 and into 2027:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Transition under the CBUAE law.</b> The one-year regularisation period from 16 September 2025 has passed its first anniversary. Watch for extensions, the first enforcement under Article 62, and any guidance on DeFi front-ends.</li>
<li><b>Full licences for dirham tokens.</b> AE Coin and RAKBANK hold in-principle approvals. Final licences, and whether any large bank-issued dirham coin reaches real merchant volume, will show whether the dirham-first policy can work.</li>
<li><b>VARA-CMA recognition terms.</b> A new recognition arrangement between Dubai and the federal regulator will decide how easily a Dubai licence travels to the rest of the country.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article summarises UAE rules as reported by regulators and law firms as of July 2026, with later updates noted. It is not legal advice; rules and rulebooks change often.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uae-crypto-regulation-vara-cbuae-adgm.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>e-Rupee vs Digital Euro vs e-CNY: 12 Design Choices Compared (2026)</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>e-rupee vs digital euro vs e-CNY compared on design, holding limits, interest, offline use, privacy and adoption, with a detailed table and 2026 numbers.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A knitwear exporter in Tiruppur sells to a buyer in Milan and buys trims from a supplier in Shenzhen. In 2026 each of those three cities sits under a different answer to the same question: what should digital cash issued by a central bank look like? India is piloting a token, Europe is legislating a capped wallet, and China has just turned its digital yuan into something closer to a bank deposit. Put side by side, the three designs say more about each country's politics than about technology.</p>

<h2>Three projects at three different stages</h2>
<p>The quickest way to compare them is by where they are.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>e-CNY (China)</b> has been in testing since 2019 and is the largest by far. By the end of November 2025 it had handled 3.48 billion transactions with a cumulative value of 16.7 trillion yuan, according to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-digital-yuan-become-interest-114013815.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BeInCrypto figures republished by Yahoo Finance</a>.</li>
<li><b>e-rupee (India)</b> has been in pilot since December 2022. Retail e-rupee in circulation stood at ₹771.66 crore on 31 March 2026, down about 24% from ₹1,016.46 crore a year earlier, according to the RBI Annual Report 2025-26 as reported by <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/banking/rbi-to-expand-digital-rupee-pilots-explore-cross-border-cbdc-transactions-in-fy27" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money</a>.</li>
<li><b>Digital euro</b> does not exist yet. The ECB moved to its next phase in October 2025, planning for a pilot from mid-2027 and a potential first issuance in 2029, provided EU law is adopted in 2026, according to the <a href="https://www.banque-france.fr/en/press-release/eurosystem-moving-next-phase-digital-euro-project" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eurosystem announcement</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Those three snapshots also map onto three motives. China wants a state-run alternative to two dominant private wallets; India wants a programmable public rail alongside an already dominant public rail, UPI; Europe wants a European option in a card market run mostly by non-European networks. For background on each, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">the digital rupee explained</a>, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">the digital euro explained</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/china-e-cny-digital-yuan/">China's e-CNY</a>.</p>

<h2>The full comparison table</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Design choice</th><th>e-rupee (India)</th><th>Digital euro (euro area)</th><th>e-CNY (China)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Stage (July 2026)</td><td>Retail and wholesale pilots since 2022</td><td>In legislation; pilot planned from 2027</td><td>Large-scale use since 2019 testing began</td></tr>
<tr><td>Whose liability</td><td>RBI</td><td>Eurosystem</td><td>Commercial banks since 1 Jan 2026, under PBoC oversight</td></tr>
<tr><td>Form</td><td>Token-based, fixed denominations</td><td>Online account-based; offline on secure devices</td><td>Account-based "digital deposit money"</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest</td><td>None</td><td>None, earned or charged</td><td>Yes, banks may pay interest from 2026</td></tr>
<tr><td>Holding limit</td><td>No published per-person cap for retail</td><td>Per-person cap; ECB analysis uses up to €3,000</td><td>No single cap published</td></tr>
<tr><td>Offline</td><td>Piloted via Bluetooth, NFC and telecom options</td><td>Device-to-device, data kept on devices</td><td>"Dual offline" NFC; hardware card and SIM wallets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Privacy model</td><td>Managed anonymity</td><td>Offline cash-like; online pseudonymised to ECB</td><td>Bank deposit rules apply</td></tr>
<tr><td>Programmability</td><td>Live in DBT and PDS pilots</td><td>Conditional payments as add-on services</td><td>Not detailed in the 2026 framework</td></tr>
<tr><td>Distribution</td><td>Banks, plus non-bank wallets such as MobiKwik and CRED</td><td>Banks and payment service providers</td><td>Banks; non-banks under full reserve</td></tr>
<tr><td>Adoption number</td><td>₹771.66 crore circulating, Mar 2026</td><td>Not issued</td><td>3.48bn transactions, Nov 2025</td></tr>
<tr><td>Cross-border</td><td>Pilots under discussion with MAS and CBUAE</td><td>Euro area payments first</td><td>About 95.3% of mBridge value</td></tr>
<tr><td>Key date</td><td>Annual report, May 2027</td><td>Possible issuance in 2029</td><td>First full year as deposit money, 2026</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Design: token, account, or deposit</h2>
<p>The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&amp;ID=1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022 concept note</a> chose a token for retail use, distributed through banks, with fixed denominations similar to notes. The aim was to make the e-rupee feel like cash and to build trust. It also lets the e-rupee move wallet to wallet without touching a bank account, which UPI cannot do.</p>
<p>The digital euro is a hybrid. Online it behaves like an account held at an intermediary, settled by the Eurosystem. Offline it behaves like a bearer instrument on a secure chip. It remains a direct claim on the central bank either way.</p>
<p>China's change is the most dramatic. From 1 January 2026, the PBoC reclassified the e-CNY from digital cash to "digital deposit money", a liability of commercial banks, covered by deposit insurance and subject to reserve requirements, according to the same Yahoo Finance report and a <a href="https://capitalfm.africa/china-digital-yuan-deposit-money-cbdc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily analysis republished by Capital FM</a>. Non-bank payment institutions issue e-CNY against customers' bank deposits under full reserve rules. In practice, China has moved its CBDC from M0 toward M1. That is a significant philosophical retreat from the "digital cash" idea, and an admission that cash-like money paying nothing struggled to compete.</p>

<h2>Holding limits and interest: the bank-protection question</h2>
<p>Every central bank fears that a safe, free digital currency would drain bank deposits. Each answers differently.</p>
<p>Europe uses a hard cap and zero interest. ECB staff analysis, prepared for legislators and reported by <a href="https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/mni-brief-digital-euro-3k-limit-little-stability-risk-ecb-1760089489547" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MNI</a> in October 2025, examined limits of up to €3,000 and found that in a severe stress case where everyone held the maximum, withdrawals could reach €699 billion, about 8.2% of retail sight deposits. Parliament's committee text, approved on 23 June 2026, generally bars businesses from holding large balances, though they may keep funds for up to 24 hours to accumulate incoming payments, and makes basic services free, according to <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/07/288574-european-parliament-committee-clears-path-for-digital-euro-by-2029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider</a>.</p>
<p>India uses zero interest and has so far relied on the pilot's small scale rather than a published cap. With under ₹800 crore in circulation, deposit flight is not a live risk.</p>
<p>China has gone the opposite way: by making the e-CNY a bank liability that can pay interest, it removes the disintermediation question entirely, because e-CNY balances are bank deposits. The cost is that the e-CNY is no longer meaningfully different from a bank account for its holder.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">China solved the deposit-flight problem by making its CBDC a deposit. Europe is trying to solve it with a cap. India has not yet had to solve it at all.</blockquote>

<h2>Worked example: three numbers that tell the story</h2>
<p>Raw totals are hard to compare because the three projects report different things. Simple ratios help.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>e-rupee per user.</b> ₹771.66 crore in circulation in March 2026, divided by roughly 7 million users reported in late 2025, works out to about ₹1,100 per user. That is a wallet balance, not a savings product.</li>
<li><b>e-CNY per transaction.</b> 16.7 trillion yuan across 3.48 billion transactions is an average of about 4,800 yuan per transaction. Large business and government payments clearly pull that average well above a typical shop purchase.</li>
<li><b>Digital euro stress case.</b> If €699 billion equals 8.2% of retail sight deposits, the implied pool of such deposits is about €8.5 trillion. And €699 billion at €3,000 per head implies roughly 233 million people holding the maximum. The ECB's own worst case assumes most of the euro area's adults fill their wallets on day one, which is why it concludes the risk is manageable.</li>
</ul>
<p>Now take a saver with the equivalent of ₹50,000 in each. In e-rupee or digital euro it would earn nothing, and in the euro case anything above the cap would sit in a bank account instead. In e-CNY, from 2026, it would earn whatever the holding bank chooses to pay, since the PBoC has not set a rate. Only the Chinese design treats CBDC as a place to keep money; the other two treat it as a way to spend it.</p>
<p class="note">Per-user and per-transaction figures are our calculations from published totals and mix dates a few months apart; they are approximations.</p>

<h2>Offline and privacy</h2>
<p>All three support some form of offline use. China tested phone-to-phone "dual offline" payments in Suzhou in December 2020 and has hardware card and SIM wallets. The ECB's <a href="https://ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/progress/html/ecb.deprp202406.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">progress report</a> describes device-to-device offline payments where only the two parties know personal details. The RBI has piloted offline e-rupee since 2024 for low-connectivity areas. We explain the mechanics in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/">offline CBDC payments</a>.</p>
<p>On privacy, Europe has made the most explicit commitments, with offline cash-like privacy and pseudonymised online data at the ECB. India's concept note promises managed anonymity, with small payments more private than large. China's shift to deposit money brings e-CNY balances under bank account rules. For the arguments, read <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/">the CBDC privacy debate</a>.</p>

<h2>Adoption: why bigger is not the same as wanted</h2>
<p>China's numbers dwarf the others, but even there adoption has been described as poor relative to the effort spent, which is part of why the PBoC changed the model, as <a href="https://triviumchina.com/?p=194281" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trivium China noted</a>. A 2021 China Daily report put Alipay and WeChat Pay together at more than 90% of the country's mobile payments market, and nothing in the e-CNY's design gave everyday users a strong reason to switch.</p>
<p>India faces a similar problem with a public competitor rather than private ones. UPI handles several hundred million payments a day, and the e-rupee's falling circulation suggests few people choose to hold it without a scheme pushing it to them. Its most distinctive use, programmable welfare money, is designed to be spent quickly.</p>
<p>Europe has the opposite problem: political support but no product yet. The European Parliament voted 416 to 169, with 22 abstentions, on 9 July 2026 to open negotiations with the Council, according to <a href="https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/07/09/digital-euro-parliament-says-yes-inter-institutional-negotiations-to-start-on-13-july/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eunews</a>, with the first trilogue on 13 July.</p>

<h2>Cost and timeline</h2>
<p>Only the ECB has published a full cost estimate. Development to first issuance is estimated at about €1.3 billion, of which about €265 million is external, with operating costs of about €320 million a year from 2029, to be covered by seigniorage. Neither the RBI nor the PBoC has published comparable figures. For the global picture, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">our CBDC tracker</a>, which counts 146 countries exploring a CBDC.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Second half of 2026:</b> EU trilogue negotiations on the digital euro regulation, aiming for agreement by year end, including how the holding cap is set.</li>
<li><b>2026 in China:</b> the first full year of interest-bearing e-CNY; watch the rates banks choose to pay and whether transaction growth picks up.</li>
<li><b>2026-27 in India:</b> RBI plans to extend e-rupee pilots to more DBT schemes and explore cross-border pilots with select partners.</li>
<li><b>Mid-2027:</b> the earliest date for a digital euro pilot and initial transactions, under the ECB's plan.</li>
<li><b>2029:</b> the ECB's target for a potential first issuance.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Cross-Border B2B Payments in 2026: $31.7tn Market, Costs and Rails</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>Cross-border B2B payments hit $31.7tn in 2024 but still cost about 1.6% on average. Rails, real costs, who is winning and where stablecoins fit in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A finance manager at a pump maker in Coimbatore pays a castings supplier in Stuttgart about EUR 40,000 every month. The money leaves on a Monday. The German side confirms receipt on Wednesday, and the amount that lands is a few hundred euros short of the invoice because an intermediary bank took a cut nobody quoted in advance. That small, recurring loss, multiplied across millions of companies, is what the cross-border B2B payments business is built on.</p>

<p>Business-to-business flows are the biggest and least glamorous part of global payments. They do not get the political attention of remittances or the headlines of stablecoins, yet they carry most of the money. This piece looks at how big the market actually is in 2026, what a business really pays, which rails are winning, and where stablecoins have found a genuine role rather than a press-release one.</p>

<h2>How big is cross-border B2B, really?</h2>

<p>Market sizing in this sector depends heavily on definitions, so it pays to be precise. FXC Intelligence, the research firm most cited on the topic, put the total cross-border payments market at <a href="https://www.fxcintel.com/research/press-releases/the-cross-border-payments-market-grows-to-208tn-but-revenue-take-rates-tighten" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$208 trillion in 2025</a>, with wholesale (bank-to-bank and financial market) flows making up most of that volume. Strip out the wholesale layer and look at companies paying companies, and FXC's estimate of the B2B segment was <a href="https://fxcintel.com/research/reports/ct-b2b-payments-2025-roundup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$31.7 trillion in 2024</a>, projected to reach $47.8 trillion by 2032.</p>

<p>The revenue picture is more interesting than the flow picture. FXC found that B2B payments by small and mid-sized businesses generated the single largest retail revenue pool, about $191 billion, even though take rates fell across every retail segment between 2022 and 2025. In plain terms: SMEs pay the most per dollar moved, and providers are fighting hard for that margin.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$31.7tn</b><span>cross-border B2B flows, 2024 (FXC)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>1.6%</b><span>average B2B cost, G20 KPI 2024</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$191bn</b><span>SME B2B revenue pool, 2025</span></div></div>

<p>For context, McKinsey's <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/global-payments-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Global Payments Report</a> sizes the entire payments revenue pool at about $2.6 trillion. Commercial transactions generate 56% of payments revenue in Asia-Pacific and 54% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Corporate money is where banks make their living.</p>

<h2>What a cross-border business payment actually costs</h2>

<p>The cleanest public benchmark comes from the G20 programme run by the Financial Stability Board. In 2021 the G20 set <a href="https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P131021-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">end-2027 targets</a> for B2B payments: a global average cost of no more than 1%, no corridor above 3%, 75% of payments available to the recipient within one hour and the rest within one business day. The FSB measures cost on a reference transfer of $20,000, counting both fees and the FX markup.</p>

<p>The world is moving the wrong way on cost. According to FXC's analysis of the FSB data, the average B2B cost rose from 1.5% in 2023 to 1.6% in the latest measurement, and the share of B2B corridors charging more than 3% climbed from 3.3% to 10%. Speed is not much better: the FSB's <a href="https://www.fsb.org/2025/10/g20-roadmap-for-cross-border-payments-consolidated-progress-report-for-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 2025 progress report</a> found that B2B and business-to-person services settled under 45% of payments within one business day, and judged it unlikely the 2027 targets would be met on time.</p>

<p>Where does the money go? Typically into four buckets:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Sending bank fee.</b> A flat charge per outgoing wire, often higher at the branch than online.</li>
<li><b>FX markup.</b> The gap between the rate you get and the mid-market rate. On larger tickets this is usually the biggest cost and the least visible.</li>
<li><b>Intermediary (correspondent) deductions.</b> Charged in transit when the payment hops through one or more banks, especially in thinner corridors.</li>
<li><b>Receiving bank fee.</b> Some banks charge the beneficiary for incoming foreign currency, which shortchanges your supplier and creates a reconciliation headache.</li>
</ul>
<p>If you have never looked at how the correspondent chain works, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/correspondent-banking-explained/">correspondent banking</a> walks through why a single payment can touch three or four banks.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one invoice, three routes</h2>

<p>Take a $20,000 payment from an Indian importer to a supplier in Germany, the same ticket size the FSB uses. The figures below apply the published averages and targets; your own bank's pricing will differ, so treat this as a framework rather than a quote.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Scenario</th><th>All-in cost rate</th><th>Cost on $20,000</th><th>Typical time to credit</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Current G20 global average (2024 KPI)</td><td>1.6%</td><td>$320</td><td>Under 45% within one business day</td></tr>
<tr><td>G20 end-2027 target</td><td>1.0%</td><td>$200</td><td>75% within one hour</td></tr>
<tr><td>Expensive corridor at the 3% ceiling</td><td>3.0%</td><td>$600</td><td>Thin corridors: 3-5 business days</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Now annualise it. A business sending 12 such payments a year at the current average pays $3,840. At the target it would pay $2,400. Hit a bad corridor and it pays $7,200. For a company running on a 6-8% net margin, the gap between $2,400 and $7,200 is the difference between a cost of doing business and a meaningful drag on profit. The same arithmetic explains why so many treasurers now ask their banks to break out the FX markup separately; once it is visible, it can be negotiated. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">the mid-market rate</a> shows how to calculate the hidden spread yourself.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The fee on the invoice is rarely the problem. The spread you never see is.</blockquote>

<h2>The rails: who carries the money</h2>

<p>Despite all the talk of disruption, Swift remains the backbone. Swift reported that <a href="https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/cross-border-payments-swift-exceed-g20s-processing-speed-target" target="_blank" rel="noopener">89% of payments on its network reached the recipient's bank within an hour</a>, but only around 60% of wholesale payments reached the end customer's account in that time. The delay sits in the last mile: compliance checks, batch processing and domestic system opening hours. That is why a wire can arrive at a German bank in minutes and still show up in the supplier's account a day later.</p>

<p>Around that core, several alternatives have grown:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Bank-owned blockchain networks.</b> J.P. Morgan's Kinexys reported average daily volume above <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/352722/jpmorgans-blockchain-unit-mena-expansion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$2 billion and over $1.5 trillion cumulative</a> as of May 2025, mostly for large corporates moving money between their own accounts.</li>
<li><b>Non-bank B2B specialists.</b> FXC's 2025 roundup shows corporate payments revenue at Corpay up 32% year on year to $1.15 billion over the first nine months of 2025, and Payoneer's B2B revenue up 27%. These firms hold local accounts in many countries and settle domestically at each end, avoiding much of the correspondent chain.</li>
<li><b>Linked instant payment systems.</b> Projects such as Nexus aim to connect domestic real-time systems so a business payment can move like a local one. They are still early for B2B.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoin settlement.</b> Covered below, because it is the fastest-growing piece and the most misunderstood.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Where stablecoins actually fit</h2>

<p>Raw on-chain stablecoin volume runs into the trillions, but most of it is trading and internal transfers. McKinsey and Artemis Analytics tried to isolate real payments and estimated <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/stablecoins-in-payments-what-the-raw-transaction-numbers-miss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about $390 billion in genuine stablecoin payments in 2025</a>, annualised from December activity. Roughly $226 billion of that, about 60%, was B2B, and B2B volume grew 733% year on year.</p>

<p>That growth is real, but keep the scale in mind. McKinsey puts global B2B payment volume at roughly $1.6 quadrillion, so stablecoin B2B is about 0.01% of it. Asia originated about 60% of genuine stablecoin payments, which matches what the industry sees on the ground: importers in emerging markets paying Asian suppliers, often where dollar access through banks is slow or rationed.</p>

<p>The honest summary is that stablecoins are winning in three situations. First, corridors where correspondent banking is thin or expensive. Second, weekend and holiday settlement, when banking rails are closed. Third, treasury movements between a company's own entities, where the counterparty risk is internal. They are not yet winning in mainstream euro or dollar corridors, where the bank rail is cheap enough and the accounting, tax and compliance work of holding a token outweighs the saving. Our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">stablecoin payments for business</a> and B2B settlement case studies go deeper into the mechanics and the trade-offs.</p>

<p class="note">Holding or converting stablecoins can have tax, accounting and foreign exchange control consequences, and rules differ by country. Check with a qualified adviser before using them for business settlement.</p>

<h2>Who is winning, and why</h2>

<p>Three groups are pulling ahead. The first is large transaction banks that have invested in API connectivity and their own settlement networks; their corporate clients get faster, more predictable payments and are sticky. The second is the specialist non-bank providers, which win SMEs by quoting transparent FX and paying out locally. The third is a small set of stablecoin infrastructure firms serving fintechs and exporters in corridors where banks have retreated.</p>

<p>The losers are equally clear: traditional providers that rely on opaque FX spreads with mid-market clients. Take rates are already compressing, as FXC's data shows, and once a finance team benchmarks its spread, the conversation changes. The other pressure point is data. ISO 20022 messages carry far richer remittance information than the old MT format, and providers that can pass invoice references end to end save their clients real reconciliation time. See our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/swift-iso-20022-2026/">Swift and ISO 20022</a> for what the richer data enables.</p>

<h2>Practical moves for a finance team this year</h2>
<ol>
<li><b>Benchmark your spread.</b> Take your last ten foreign payments, compare the applied rate with the mid-market rate at the time, and calculate the all-in percentage. If you are above 1.6% on tickets of $20,000 or more, you are paying more than the global average.</li>
<li><b>Ask who pays the charges.</b> Wires sent with shared charges let intermediaries deduct from the principal. Check whether your bank offers a guaranteed full-amount option for key suppliers and what it costs.</li>
<li><b>Clean up your address data.</b> Banks are moving to structured beneficiary addresses (town and country in separate fields). Payments with poor data get delayed or returned.</li>
<li><b>Map your corridors.</b> Most firms have two or three corridors that drive the bulk of cost. Treat them separately; a single provider rarely wins every corridor.</li>
<li><b>Decide your stance on tokenised settlement.</b> Even if you do not use it, know which of your suppliers or customers would prefer it, and what your accountant and bank would require. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fx-risk-for-small-businesses/">FX risk for small businesses</a> covers hedging, which matters more than the rail for many SMEs.</li>
</ol>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>December 2026: Swift's structured-address decision.</b> Swift had planned to stop supporting unstructured addresses in payment messages in November 2026, but on 27 August 2026 it <a href="https://www.swift.com/insights/news/swift-accepts-community-request-extend-structured-address-migration-iso-20022-payment-messages" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deferred the change</a> after community requests and promised an update on timing by December 2026. About 65% of payment messages still carried unstructured addresses when the original deadline was set.</li>
<li><b>18 January 2027: GENIUS Act effective date.</b> The US stablecoin law takes effect on the earlier of that date or 120 days after final rules, according to <a href="https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2026/03/the-genius-act-in-action-the-occ-proposes-stablecoin-regulations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jones Day's analysis</a> of the OCC proposal. Clear US rules make it easier for corporate treasurers and auditors to sign off on dollar stablecoins.</li>
<li><b>12 June 2027: Swift's deferred standards release,</b> covering trade, securities and tracker messages.</li>
<li><b>End-2027: the G20 deadline.</b> On current trends the B2B cost target of 1% will be missed. Watch whether the FSB resets the targets or adds new measures in its 2026 and 2027 progress reports.</li>
<li><b>Swift's shared ledger.</b> Announced in September 2025 with Consensys and more than 30 banks, the ledger's first use case is 24/7 cross-border payments. No launch date has been set; prototype results are the next milestone.</li>
</ul>

<p>The direction is clear even if the timing is not. Business payments are slowly being pushed toward transparent pricing, richer data and round-the-clock settlement. Finance teams that measure what they pay today will be best placed to capture the savings as the rails improve.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Self-Custody Wallet Adoption 2026: Users, Smart Accounts, Passkeys</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>How many people really hold their own crypto keys in 2026: active wallet data, Safe smart accounts, EIP-7702, passkeys, regional growth and theft risk.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A pharmacist in Cordoba keeps her savings in dollar stablecoins on her phone, in a wallet whose keys no bank or exchange can freeze. She is part of the sharpest wallet surge anywhere: mobile wallet activity in Argentina rose sixteenfold over the year to mid-2025, according to a16z's State of Crypto report. Yet the global picture is more sobering than the Argentine one. Hundreds of millions of people own crypto. Only a small fraction hold their own keys and use them in a given month.</p>

<p>This piece looks at what the data actually says about self-custody in 2026: how many people use it, where growth is coming from, how smart accounts and passkeys are replacing the twelve-word seed phrase, and what the theft numbers tell us about the cost of being your own bank.</p>

<h2>Owners are not users</h2>

<p>The most quoted number in crypto is ownership. a16z estimated that around 716 million people own some crypto, up 16% in a year, as summarised by <a href="https://bitpinas.com/cryptocurrency/a16z-state-of-crypto-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BitPinas</a>. The more useful number is the one next to it: only 40 million to 70 million are active users. That is a ratio of roughly ten owners for every active user.</p>

<p>Most of the 716 million hold crypto on an exchange, which keeps the keys. A self-custody wallet is different: the user holds the credential that signs transactions, and nobody can reverse or block a transfer. We set out the trade-offs in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">self-custody versus custodial wallets</a>. The honest summary is that self-custody is still a minority habit, growing fast from a small base.</p>

<p>Company figures give a sense of scale. MetaMask passed 30 million monthly active users in March 2022, according to a <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220315005062/en/ConsenSys-Raises-$450M-Series-D-Funding-as-Leading-Self-Custodial-Wallet-MetaMask-Reaches-Over-30-Million-MAUs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Consensys release</a>, during the last bull market. Phantom, which began on Solana, reported 15 million monthly active users when it raised $150 million at a $3 billion valuation in January 2025, as <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/335305/phantom-wallet-raises-150-million-at-3-billion-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a> reported. Wallet providers count users differently, and many people run several wallets, so these figures cannot simply be added.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>+20%</b><span>growth in mobile wallet users, year to mid-2025 (a16z)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$35.25B</b><span>assets secured in Safe smart accounts, Q1 2026</span></div><div class="stat"><b>158,000</b><span>personal wallet compromises in 2025 (Chainalysis)</span></div></div>

<h2>Where the growth is coming from</h2>

<p>Chainalysis ranks countries on grassroots crypto activity, weighting for population and purchasing power. Its 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index, covering the year to June 2025, put India first and the United States second, with Vietnam, Brazil and Nigeria also in the top six. Asia-Pacific was the fastest growing region, with on-chain value received up 69% to $2.36 trillion, against 49% growth in North America and 42% in Europe, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/369420/india-leads-global-crypto-adoption-chainalysis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>.</p>

<p>Those numbers measure all crypto activity, not just self-custody. But the pattern lines up with wallet data. The places where self-custody grows fastest share three features: a volatile local currency, a large diaspora sending money home, and a young, mobile-first population. Argentina and Nigeria fit all three. India's position reflects sheer scale and an active trading culture, under a tax regime that we track in India crypto regulation 2026. In Latin America the driver is plainly dollar access, as we explored in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/latin-america-stablecoin-adoption/">Latin America stablecoin adoption</a>.</p>

<p>The common thread is stablecoins. Total supply stands near $306 billion as of October 2026 on DefiLlama data, and genuine stablecoin payments came to about $390 billion in 2025 by McKinsey and Artemis estimates. For a user in Cordoba or Lagos, the wallet is not a gateway to speculation. It is a dollar account that no local bank controls. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-market-report-2026/">stablecoin market report</a> has the wider numbers.</p>

<h2>The end of the twelve-word seed phrase</h2>

<p>For a decade, self-custody meant writing down a seed phrase and never losing it. That single design choice has done more to cap adoption than any regulation. Lose the words and the money is gone; let someone photograph them and the money is gone faster. Three developments are changing this.</p>

<h3>Smart accounts</h3>

<p>A smart account is a wallet that is itself a program on the blockchain. It can require several approvals, set spending limits, rotate keys, and let a guardian help with recovery. Safe, the most widely used smart account, reported 61.11 million accounts and $35.25 billion of assets secured at the end of March 2026, with a record 852,000 net new accounts in March alone, according to its <a href="https://safefoundation.org/blog/safe-q1-2026-quarterly-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q1 2026 report</a>. Safe accounts hold around 2% of global stablecoin supply.</p>

<h3>EIP-7702</h3>

<p>Ethereum's Pectra upgrade in May 2025 let ordinary wallets temporarily take on smart account features without moving funds to a new address. Uptake started modestly: just over 11,000 authorisations in the first week, per Dune data cited by <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/354414/smart-wallet-adoption-surges-after-pectra-upgrade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. The significance is not the early count. It is that hundreds of millions of existing addresses can now gain batching, sponsored fees and recovery without migrating. The architecture debate behind this is covered in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpc-vs-smart-contract-wallets/">MPC versus smart contract wallets</a>.</p>

<h3>Passkeys</h3>

<p>Passkeys replace passwords with a cryptographic key stored on the phone and released by a fingerprint or face scan. The FIDO Alliance reported more than 3 billion passkeys in use in October 2025, with a 93% sign-in success rate and login times down 73%, according to <a href="https://www.mobileidworld.com/fido-alliance-reports-3-billion-passkeys-in-use-shows-93-authentication-success-rate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mobile ID World</a>. A newer FIDO summary on its <a href="https://fidoalliance.org/passkey-index-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">site</a> cites 5 billion. Wallets that use passkeys to sign transactions give users the same experience as opening a banking app, with no seed phrase to write down.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Self-custody did not stall because people distrust banks less than we thought. It stalled because the seed phrase asked too much.</blockquote>

<h2>Five ways to hold your own keys</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Model</th><th>How you sign</th><th>Recovery</th><th>Main risk</th><th>Who uses it</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Seed phrase wallet</td><td>One private key from 12 or 24 words</td><td>Only with the phrase</td><td>Phishing, lost phrase</td><td>Most existing users</td></tr>
<tr><td>MPC wallet</td><td>Key split into shares across devices or a provider</td><td>Provider-assisted share refresh</td><td>Dependence on provider uptime</td><td>Exchanges, fintech apps, institutions</td></tr>
<tr><td>Smart account</td><td>On-chain rules, one or more signers</td><td>Guardians, key rotation</td><td>Contract bugs, interface compromise</td><td>Treasuries, DAOs, power users</td></tr>
<tr><td>EIP-7702 upgraded wallet</td><td>Existing key plus delegated smart logic</td><td>Depends on delegate contract</td><td>Malicious delegation prompts</td><td>New feature in mainstream wallets</td></tr>
<tr><td>Passkey wallet</td><td>Device biometric key</td><td>Cloud passkey sync or backup signer</td><td>Account lockout, cloud dependency</td><td>New consumer wallets</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>A worked example: what the averages say</h2>

<p>Raw totals hide a lot, so divide them. These calculations use only the published figures above.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Average Safe account balance.</b> $35.25 billion across 61.11 million accounts is about <b>$577 per account</b>. The median is surely far lower, since a few treasury accounts hold enormous sums, but it shows that most smart accounts are small, everyday wallets rather than institutional vaults.</li>
<li><b>Stablecoins in Safe.</b> Around 2% of a stablecoin market Safe put at $340 billion is roughly <b>$6.8 billion</b>, about a fifth of everything Safe accounts secure.</li>
<li><b>Average theft from individuals.</b> Chainalysis counted $713 million stolen from personal wallets in 2025 across at least 80,000 unique victims. That is about <b>$8,900 per victim</b>, a serious loss for a family keeping remittance savings on a phone.</li>
</ul>

<p>The last figure is the one that should shape product design. A self-custody wallet that holds a few hundred dollars for daily spending is a convenience. One that holds a family's savings needs recovery and limits that the seed phrase model never offered.</p>

<h2>The security ledger</h2>

<p>Chainalysis put total crypto stolen in 2025 at more than $3.4 billion, with the $1.5 billion Bybit hack alone making up about 44%, according to <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/382477/crypto-hack-2025-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block</a>. Attacks on individuals tell a different story. There were 158,000 personal wallet compromises in 2025. The dollar value stolen from individuals fell to $713 million from $1.5 billion the year before, but the number of incidents rose, which suggests attackers are going after more people for smaller sums.</p>

<p>Two lessons follow. First, self-custody shifts risk from a company to the user, and attackers have adjusted. Address poisoning, fake airdrop sites and malicious approval requests are now routine; our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/money-transfer-scams/">money transfer scams</a> covers the common patterns. Second, the biggest losses still come from key management failures rather than clever code exploits: Chainalysis found that private key breaches at centralised services accounted for 88% of stolen amounts in the first quarter of 2025. Smart accounts and MPC reduce single points of failure, but the weakest point is often the screen where a human clicks approve.</p>

<p class="note">This article is general information, not financial or security advice. Anyone holding meaningful sums in self-custody should research recovery options carefully and consider professional guidance.</p>

<h2>What this means for payments</h2>

<p>For cross-border money, the shift matters more than the headline adoption numbers suggest. A sender who can receive dollar stablecoins into a wallet secured by a phone's face scan, with a relative set as a recovery guardian, has something close to a global bank account with no minimum balance. The friction that remains is at the edges: buying the stablecoin, and turning it back into local money to pay rent or school fees. That is where cards and local payout rails come in, and where regulators focus.</p>

<p>Expect consolidation. As passkeys and smart accounts become the default, the visible difference between a self-custody wallet and a fintech app will narrow. The difference that remains is legal: who can freeze the funds, and who is liable when something goes wrong.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Safe's Q3 2026 report, expected late October 2026.</b> Its Q1 report landed on 23 April; a similar schedule would show whether March's record account growth held through the summer.</li>
<li><b>FIDO Alliance's annual passkey update, around October 2026.</b> Last year's index came on 14 October. The key question is how many crypto wallets now count among passkey adopters.</li>
<li><b>Chainalysis crypto crime update, December 2026.</b> Watch whether personal wallet compromises keep rising in count while falling in value per victim.</li>
<li><b>EIP-7702 support in mainstream wallets through 2026.</b> As more wallets expose smart features by default, look for both adoption counts and reports of malicious delegations.</li>
</ul>

<p>Self-custody is no longer a niche for the technically confident. It is becoming a phone feature. Whether that makes ordinary users safer or simply gives scammers a larger target depends on how quickly recovery and spending limits become the default rather than an advanced setting.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/self-custody-wallet-adoption-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>FEMA Rules for NRIs and OCI Holders in 2026: A Practical Guide</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/</guid><pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>FEMA rules for NRIs and OCI holders in 2026: residency tests, bank accounts, property, the USD 1 million NRO limit, repatriation forms and common mistakes.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fema-rules-for-nris-2026.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A cardiologist in Leicester inherits her parents' flat in Pune, sells it, and asks her bank to send the money to London. The bank asks four questions she was not expecting: which account the money is in, where the flat money came from, whether tax has been paid, and whether she has already sent other money out this year. Each question comes from the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, and the regulations under it. FEMA is not a tax law, but it decides what an NRI or OCI holder may own in India, which account money must sit in, and how it can leave.</p>

<p>This guide sets out how FEMA applies in 2026 to non-resident Indians and overseas citizens of India, where people most often go wrong, and what changed this year. It explains rules for general information and is not legal advice; check specific transactions with a qualified adviser or your bank.</p>

<h2>Who FEMA treats as non-resident</h2>

<p>FEMA and the income tax law both talk about residence, but they mean different things. Income tax counts days. The tests carried into the Income-tax Act, 2025, confirmed in Income Tax Department FAQs <a href="https://southasianherald.com/tax-dept-clears-nri-doubts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported in July 2026</a>, are 182 days in India in a tax year, or 60 days plus 365 days over the previous four years, with a 120-day variant for visiting citizens whose Indian income exceeds Rs 15 lakh.</p>

<p>FEMA looks at purpose. Leaving India for employment, business or any purpose that shows an intention to stay abroad for an uncertain period makes you a person resident outside India from the day you leave. Coming back for those reasons makes you resident again from arrival. That is why a professional who moves to Singapore in October can be non-resident for FEMA immediately, while still being a tax resident for that year on day count.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Question</th><th>FEMA</th><th>Income tax</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Basis</td><td>Purpose and intention of stay</td><td>Days in India in the tax year</td></tr>
<tr><td>When status changes</td><td>On leaving or returning for employment, business or uncertain stay</td><td>At the end of the tax year, on the day count</td></tr>
<tr><td>What it governs</td><td>Accounts, property, investment, repatriation</td><td>What income is taxed in India</td></tr>
<tr><td>Transitional status</td><td>None</td><td>Resident but not ordinarily resident (RNOR)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Who it covers</td><td>Persons resident outside India, NRIs and OCI holders</td><td>All individuals with Indian income</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_ViewMasDirections.aspx?id=10382" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deposit regulations</a> define an NRI as a person resident outside India who is an Indian citizen, and a person of Indian origin as a non-resident foreign citizen of specified origin, a definition that expressly includes OCI cardholders. For most banking and investment purposes, the two groups are treated alike.</p>

<h2>Bank accounts: the first compliance line</h2>

<p>The most common FEMA breach is the quietest one: keeping an ordinary resident savings account after moving abroad. Once you become a person resident outside India, resident accounts must be redesignated as NRO. From then on, money earned abroad goes to NRE or FCNR(B), and Indian income goes to NRO. Our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE, NRO and FCNR accounts</a> covers the mechanics in detail.</p>

<p>Several smaller rules catch people out. Power of attorney holders on an NRO account can pay local bills and remit current income, but cannot repatriate capital except to the account holder, cannot make gifts to residents, and cannot move money to another NRO account. Credit card bills settled from NRO balances count toward the same repatriation limit, according to the <a href="https://old.wirc-icai.org/images/material/Bank-acs-LRS$1-million-scheme-HB.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICAI western region's compilation</a> of the rules. Resident relatives can send gifts to an NRO account under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, which is itself capped at $250,000 per person per financial year.</p>

<h2>The USD 1 million rule and how repatriation works</h2>

<p>Money in NRE and FCNR(B) accounts can be repatriated freely. NRO money is different. Current income, meaning rent, interest, dividends and pension, can be sent abroad once tax is paid. Capital in NRO, such as sale proceeds or inheritance, can be repatriated up to USD 1 million per financial year, with transfers to NRE counting inside that figure. Above it, RBI approval is required. Many banks also expect all NRO remittances in a year to go through a <a href="https://www.immihelp.com/repatriating-money-from-nre-and-nro-accounts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">single authorised dealer bank</a>, so splitting a large sum across banks to get around the cap does not work.</p>

<p>The documents changed on 1 April 2026. Forms 15CA and 15CB were replaced by <a href="https://www.bdo.in/en-gb/news/2026/new-tax-declaration-forms-introduced-for-nri-remittances" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forms 145 and 146</a> under the Income-tax Rules, 2026. Form 145 is your declaration; Form 146 is a chartered accountant's certificate needed for taxable remittances above Rs 5 lakh a year, now with a UDIN for verification and a requirement to quote your tax residency certificate if you claim treaty benefits. Banks also ask for Form A2 and proof of the source of funds, such as a sale deed or rental agreement, as <a href="https://www.kotak.bank.in/en/stories-in-focus/nri/how-to-repatriate-money-from-nro-accounts-to-nre-overseas-accounts.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bank guidance</a> lists.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">FEMA rarely says no. It says which account, which form, and how much per year.</blockquote>

<h2>Property: what NRIs and OCI holders can own</h2>

<p>NRIs and OCI holders can buy residential and commercial property in India, and can receive property by inheritance. Agricultural land, plantation property and farmhouses are the main exclusions for purchase, although they can be inherited. Payment for a purchase has to come through normal banking channels, from money remitted to India or held in NRE, FCNR(B) or NRO accounts. Cash and foreign currency notes are not acceptable routes.</p>

<p>Sale is where the source of funds matters. Proceeds from up to two residential properties bought with NRE or FCNR(B) money can be repatriated in your lifetime outside the NRO cap, as <a href="https://getbelong.com/blog/returning-nris/repatriation-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">repatriation guidance</a> explains. Property bought with rupee funds, or inherited, goes through NRO and the USD 1 million limit. The buyer must deduct tax at source on the sale. For an NRI seller, long-term gains on property attract 12.5 percent plus surcharge and cess, with no indexation, and the buyer generally deducts on the <a href="https://nriinformation.com/banking/tds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full sale price</a> unless a lower deduction certificate is obtained.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>$1M</b><span>NRO capital repatriation per financial year</span></div><div class="stat"><b>2</b><span>Residential properties whose NRE-funded sale can be repatriated</span></div><div class="stat"><b>10%</b><span>New per-investor cap in a listed company</span></div></div>

<h2>Worked example: the Pune flat</h2>

<p>Back to the cardiologist in Leicester. The figures below are illustrative but use the published rates.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Inherited Pune flat, sold for Rs 3 crore.</b> Assume the taxable long-term gain, after the inherited cost basis, is Rs 1.2 crore. Tax at 12.5 percent before surcharge and cess is Rs 15 lakh.</li>
<li><b>The withholding problem.</b> Without a lower deduction certificate, the buyer deducts 12.5 percent plus surcharge and cess on the full Rs 3 crore, which is at least Rs 37.5 lakh. The excess comes back only after she files and the refund is processed. A certificate, now Form 128 under the new rules, limits withholding to tax on the actual gain.</li>
<li><b>Repatriation.</b> The proceeds land in her NRO account. At an illustrative Rs 95 to the dollar, the full Rs 3 crore is roughly $316,000, well within one year's USD 1 million cap. She files Form 145, gets a Form 146 from a chartered accountant, and submits Form A2 with the sale deed and proof of tax paid.</li>
<li><b>Her own Bengaluru flat, bought in 2015 from NRE funds.</b> If she sells it too, the proceeds can be repatriated outside the NRO cap as one of her two eligible residential properties.</li>
</ul>

<p>The lesson is timing. The certificate application, the tax computation and the bank's paperwork should be under way before the sale agreement is signed, not after the money arrives.</p>

<h2>Investing: the 2026 change to listed equity limits</h2>

<p>NRIs and OCI holders can invest in listed Indian shares on a repatriable or non-repatriable basis, in mutual funds and in government securities, subject to limits. The 2026 Budget raised those limits for persons resident outside India from tax year 2026-27, according to <a href="https://nriinformation.com/taxation/india-budget-2026-nri-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Budget commentary</a>: the personal ceiling in any one listed company goes from 5 percent to 10 percent, and the combined ceiling for all such investors in a company from 10 percent to 24 percent. Few individuals approach those caps, but the higher aggregate ceiling removes a constraint that occasionally froze NRI buying in popular mid-sized companies. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-investment-routes-india/">NRI investment routes</a> covers the options in more depth.</p>

<h2>Common mistakes and how they are handled</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Not converting resident accounts</b> after moving abroad, or NRE accounts after returning.</li>
<li><b>Depositing Indian income into NRE</b> to get the tax-free interest.</li>
<li><b>Using a power of attorney holder</b> to send NRO capital to third parties or to gift to residents.</li>
<li><b>Exceeding the USD 1 million limit</b> through several banks, or forgetting that card settlements and NRO-to-NRE transfers count.</li>
<li><b>Buying agricultural land</b> through a relative's name.</li>
<li><b>Ignoring Section 6(4) on return.</b> Returning residents can keep foreign assets acquired while abroad, but must report them; see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/moving-back-to-india-money-checklist/">moving back to India checklist</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>FEMA contraventions are civil, not criminal, in most cases. The Enforcement Directorate can impose penalties linked to the amount involved, and many technical breaches can be settled through compounding with the RBI, which means paying a sum to close the matter. Correcting a mistake voluntarily, before it is found, is almost always cheaper. For the tax side of the same transactions, read our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/">tax on money sent to India</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>31 July 2026:</b> last returns filed under the Income-tax Act, 1961, for 2025-26 income.</li>
<li><b>16 August to 31 December 2026:</b> the FAST-DS 2026 window, which lets residents, including returned NRIs, disclose foreign assets with immunity from penalty and prosecution.</li>
<li><b>1 October 2026:</b> resident buyers of NRI property can deduct TDS using their PAN instead of a TAN, simplifying sales like the one in our example.</li>
<li><b>Tax year 2026-27:</b> the higher 10 percent and 24 percent listed-company limits for non-resident investors take effect.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This guide summarises FEMA rules and related tax requirements for general information. It is not legal or tax advice. Property, inheritance and repatriation cases turn on specific facts, so confirm your position with a qualified adviser or your authorised dealer bank. For sending money the other way, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/">UK to India transfer guide</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/fema-rules-for-nris-2026.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>UK Stablecoin Regime 2026: FCA Rules, BoE £40bn Cap, 2027 Timeline</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-stablecoin-regime-fca-bank-of-england/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-stablecoin-regime-fca-bank-of-england/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Regulation</category><description>How the UK regulates stablecoins: FCA PS26/10 issuer rules, the Bank of England&#x27;s 30/70 backing split, the £40bn issuance guardrail and October 2027 start.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-stablecoin-regime-fca-bank-of-england.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">Picture the treasurer of a Manchester importer who settles a few million pounds a month with suppliers in Rotterdam and Shenzhen. Last November she read that the Bank of England wanted to cap every company's holding of a big sterling stablecoin at £10 million. By the end of June 2026 that cap was gone, replaced by a ceiling on the coin itself. That one switch tells you most of what you need to know about how Britain's stablecoin rulebook was built: cautious, argued over in public, and then softened at the last minute.</p>

<p>The UK now has a two-regulator system for stablecoins. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) writes the rules for anyone issuing a sterling-pegged coin from a UK establishment and for the firms that hold, trade and arrange crypto for customers. The Bank of England steps in only when HM Treasury decides that a coin, or the payment system around it, has become big enough to matter for financial stability. This piece walks through both layers, the numbers that changed in 2026, and the dates between now and the full start in October 2027.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>£40bn</b><span>temporary issuance guardrail per systemic sterling coin</span></div><div class="stat"><b>30%</b><span>backing held as unremunerated deposits at the Bank</span></div><div class="stat"><b>25 Oct 2027</b><span>date FCA authorisation becomes mandatory</span></div></div>

<h2>Two regulators, split by function rather than label</h2>

<p>The architecture comes from the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, amended by the Cryptoassets Regulations that HM Treasury steered through Parliament, which create a new set of regulated activities. One of them is issuing a "qualifying stablecoin" in the UK. Another is safeguarding cryptoassets for clients. A third covers running a trading platform. All of them require FCA authorisation from <b>25 October 2027</b>.</p>

<p>The Bank of England's role is narrower but sharper. Under the Banking Act 2009 it already supervises systemic payment systems, and Treasury can now recognise a stablecoin arrangement as systemic. Once that happens the Bank takes over prudential matters (backing assets, capital, failure planning, the issuance guardrail) while the FCA keeps conduct (Consumer Duty, disclosure, market abuse, financial crime, complaints). The two regulators set this out in a <a href="https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/briefings/2026/07/one-systemically-important-issuer-two-regulators-bank-of-england-finalises-systemic-stablecoin-policies-and-proposes-joint-regulatory-approach-with-the-fca" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joint document published on 30 June 2026</a>. Recognition does not hand a firm from one regulator to the other. It adds the Bank on top.</p>

<p>Our view: this is a sensible design on paper and an expensive one in practice. A systemic issuer will answer to two supervisors with slightly different rulebooks, and the first one to be recognised will be the test case for whether the coordination actually works.</p>

<h2>The FCA layer: what PS26/10 requires of every issuer</h2>

<p>On 30 June 2026 the FCA published its final crypto package, five policy statements numbered PS26/9 to PS26/13. The one that matters most for stablecoins is <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/policy/ps26-10.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PS26/10 on stablecoin issuance</a>, which finalises the proposals first floated in consultation paper CP25/14. The core obligations:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Full backing from the moment of minting</b>, including coins the issuer holds on its own balance sheet.</li>
<li><b>Statutory trust.</b> Backing assets sit in a trust for holders, so they are ring-fenced if the issuer fails. The terms of that trust will come in a separate consultation.</li>
<li><b>A permitted asset list that was not widened.</b> The FCA refused to allow multi-currency backing, and tokenised versions of permitted assets are acceptable.</li>
<li><b>A 5% buffer</b> of excess backing is allowed, and up to 20% of the pool may sit with an intragroup custodian.</li>
<li><b>Redemption at par by the end of the next business day</b>, with the clock starting only after know-your-customer checks are done.</li>
<li><b>No interest or yield</b> passed from backing assets to holders, either by the issuer or by a third party. Third parties can still offer rewards.</li>
</ul>

<p>Law firm analysis from <a href="https://www.aoshearman.com/en/insights/ao-shearman-on-fintech-and-digital-assets/final-rules-for-new-uk-crypto-regime-stablecoin-issuance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A&amp;O Shearman</a> notes the FCA dropped a requirement to forecast redemption levels, a small change that removes a lot of modelling work. The companion prudential statement, PS26/12, also halved the operational-risk K-factor for issuance from 2% to 1%, according to <a href="https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/regulatory-insights/the-uk-finalised-regulatory-regime-for-cryptoassets.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KPMG's summary</a>. Both moves read as the FCA listening to the industry that the government says it wants to attract.</p>

<p>The no-yield rule is the one to watch. The FCA said plainly that further work on competition effects does not mean it is about to change its mind. That puts the UK in the same camp as the US and EU on issuer-paid interest, a theme we cover in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">our comparison of the GENIUS Act and MiCA</a>.</p>

<h2>The Bank of England layer: from holding caps to an issuance guardrail</h2>

<p>The Bank's November 2025 consultation was the most conservative stablecoin proposal of any major central bank. It suggested limits of £20,000 per individual and £10 million per business for each systemic coin, and required at least 40% of backing to sit in unremunerated deposits at the Bank. Industry pushback was loud, and the House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee weighed in with a report on 3 June 2026.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/405545/bank-of-england-drops-proposed-individual-holding-caps-for-sterling-stablecoins-sets-40-billion-issuance-guardrail" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policy statement of 22 June 2026</a> changed three big things. Individual and business holding limits were dropped entirely. In their place sits a temporary maximum issuance of £40 billion per systemic stablecoin, which the Bank says it expects to loosen and eventually remove. And the deposit share of backing fell from 40% to 30%, with the other 70% allowed in short-term gilts of up to six months' residual maturity, which can earn a return.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Rule</th><th>BoE proposal (Nov 2025)</th><th>BoE final policy (Jun 2026)</th><th>FCA non-systemic rules (PS26/10)</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Holding limits</td><td>£20,000 per person, £10m per business</td><td>None; £40bn issuance guardrail per coin</td><td>None</td></tr>
<tr><td>Central bank deposits</td><td>At least 40%, unremunerated</td><td>30% unremunerated (best endeavours)</td><td>Not required</td></tr>
<tr><td>Government debt</td><td>Up to 60%</td><td>Up to 70%, max six-month residual maturity</td><td>From the FCA's permitted list</td></tr>
<tr><td>Redemption</td><td>At par</td><td>Within 24 hours of a full request</td><td>End of next business day</td></tr>
<tr><td>Interest to holders</td><td>Monitoring</td><td>Banned; payment-linked rewards allowed</td><td>Banned; third-party rewards allowed</td></tr>
<tr><td>Capital</td><td>To be set</td><td>Higher of 6 months' opex or wind-down cost</td><td>FCA prudential regime (PS26/12)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>Some details matter for anyone modelling an issuer. The 30% deposit requirement is on a best-endeavours basis, but the Bank wants to hear if deposits fall below 25% for more than five consecutive business days or below 20% at any point. Capital must be the higher of six months of operating costs or the cost of recovery and orderly wind-down, with an early warning if it drops below 110% of that minimum. A coin that is systemic from day one can start with up to 95% in short gilts and only 5% in Bank deposits, stepping towards the 30/70 split as it grows. The Bank will also offer a backstop facility that lends central bank money against gilts in exceptional stress, with details due in 2027.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">Britain swapped a cap on users for a cap on issuers, and that is a better trade.</blockquote>

<p>We think the switch was right. Per-person limits would have required issuers and wallets to track every holder across every platform, something nobody had worked out how to do on public blockchains with self-custodied wallets. A ceiling on total issuance is something a single firm can monitor and report daily.</p>

<h2>A worked example: the economics of a £5bn systemic sterling coin</h2>

<p>Take a hypothetical sterling coin with £5 billion in circulation that Treasury has recognised as systemic, and which has completed its transition to the steady-state split.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Backing composition.</b> 30% of £5bn, or £1.5bn, must sit in unremunerated deposits at the Bank of England. The remaining £3.5bn can be in gilts with up to six months to maturity.</li>
<li><b>Income base.</b> Only the £3.5bn earns anything. For every 1 percentage point of gilt yield, the issuer earns £35m a year before costs. Under the November proposal (60% gilts) the same coin would have earned £30m per point; under the systemic-at-launch allowance (95% gilts) it would earn £47.5m per point.</li>
<li><b>Guardrail headroom.</b> The coin can grow eightfold before it hits the £40bn ceiling. At that size, £12bn would be parked at the Bank earning nothing.</li>
<li><b>Holder side.</b> A business holding £25m of the coin for supplier settlements, illegal under the old £10m proposal, is now fine. It earns no interest from the issuer, but could receive payment-linked rewards such as cashback.</li>
</ol>

<p>Compare that with how dollar issuers make money, where nearly all reserves can be in Treasury bills and repo. The UK's 30% dead-weight is the price of access to central bank money and a liquidity backstop, which is why the model reads more like a narrow bank than a fintech. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/how-stablecoin-issuers-make-money/">how stablecoin issuers make money</a> sets out the dollar side of that comparison.</p>

<h2>What happens to USDT, USDC and other foreign coins</h2>

<p>Dollar stablecoins dominate global supply. Total stablecoin supply is about $306 billion as of October 2026 according to DefiLlama, with USDT around $184 billion and USDC around $73 billion. Neither is a sterling coin, and neither is issued from the UK, so neither falls under the Bank's systemic regime today. They stay under the FCA's perimeter for UK firms that trade, hold or arrange them.</p>

<p>The Bank has said it may defer to a home regulator for non-sterling coins that become systemic in the UK, provided outcomes are similar and cooperation arrangements exist. That clause will matter if dollar coins start to be used widely for retail payments in Britain. It is also where the UK's approach differs most from the EU, which forces foreign coins to be issued by an authorised local entity before they can be offered to the public. For the EU detail see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mica-emt-art-stablecoins-explained/">our guide to MiCA's EMT and ART categories</a>.</p>

<p>Draft amendments published by HM Treasury on 21 April 2026 also tweak the edges. They would take UK qualifying stablecoins out of the dealing and arranging activities when used in payments, and pull most UKQS-only transactions out of the financial promotions regime, according to <a href="https://www.regulationtomorrow.com/2026/04/hmt-issues-policy-note-and-draft-si-on-amendments-to-the-financial-services-and-markets-act-2000-cryptoassets-regulations-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Regulation Tomorrow</a>. The clear intent is to stop the crypto rulebook from accidentally blocking stablecoin payments before a separate payments reform arrives.</p>

<h2>The road to October 2027</h2>

<p>The calendar is already running. The FCA opened pre-application meetings in the spring and its authorisation gateway on 30 September 2026. Firms that apply by 28 February 2027 get a saving provision to keep operating while their application is assessed; firms that miss it face a hard stop on 25 October 2027 if they are not authorised. The FCA's statutory clock for deciding a complete application is up to six months, or twelve if it is incomplete, which explains the rush.</p>

<p>On the Bank side, the consultation on a draft Code of Practice for systemic issuers closed on 22 September 2026 and the joint BoE-FCA document consultation on 30 September. The Bank intends to finalise the Code by the end of 2026 and publish further consultations, including on special administration for failed issuers, through 2027. A newly recognised issuer faces a transition of up to 12 months for its settlement account and backing assets, plus up to 24 more months to meet capital and reserve requirements.</p>

<h2>What this means for remittances and cross-border users</h2>

<p>For individuals sending money from the UK, nothing changes yet. Corridors like London to Mumbai still run mainly on bank and card rails, as covered in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/uk-to-india-money-transfer/">our UK to India transfer guide</a>. A regulated sterling stablecoin could in time give money transfer firms a 24/7 settlement asset with a legal right to redemption at par, which is a better foundation than today's offshore dollar coins. But the cost of the backing rules and the dual supervision mean the first sterling coins are more likely to come from banks and large payment firms than start-ups.</p>

<p>We would watch three things. First, whether any firm applies to issue a sterling coin through the gateway before the February deadline, which will signal whether the economics work. Second, whether Treasury recognises a coin as systemic before the 2027 start, which would trigger the first real test of joint supervision. Third, whether the £40bn guardrail is relaxed in the final Code. For the wider picture of how other G20 jurisdictions are approaching cross-border settlement, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/future-of-cross-border-payments-g20/">our G20 cross-border payments explainer</a>.</p>

<p class="note">This article explains rules as published by UK authorities as of July 2026, with timeline updates. It is not legal advice. Firms considering an application should take advice from a qualified UK regulatory lawyer.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/uk-stablecoin-regime-fca-bank-of-england.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Lessons From Launched CBDCs: Sand Dollar, JAM-DEX and eNaira Data</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/lessons-from-launched-cbdcs/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/lessons-from-launched-cbdcs/</guid><pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>Only three retail CBDCs have fully launched. Sand Dollar, JAM-DEX and eNaira data show why uptake stayed below 1% of cash, and what pilots should learn.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/lessons-from-launched-cbdcs.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In February 2023, point-of-sale agents in Jos were charging up to ten times their usual fee to hand out cash. Nigeria's central bank had withdrawn old naira notes faster than it could print new ones, and notes in circulation had collapsed from about N3.23 trillion to roughly N1 trillion. If there was ever a moment for a central bank digital currency to win, this was it: a population starved of cash, a government-issued digital alternative already live for 16 months, and about 13 million wallets opened. The eNaira had its moment, and it still did not take off. That episode is the clearest lesson the world has from the three retail CBDCs that have actually launched.</p>

<p>Most CBDC debate is about design: privacy, offline payments, programmability, bank disintermediation. The three live systems in the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria let us look at something more useful, which is behaviour. What happens when ordinary people and merchants are given a central bank wallet? The short answer is: not much, unless the wallet does a job nothing else does.</p>

<h2>The scorecard: three launches, tiny footprints</h2>

<p>As of 2026, the Atlantic Council's <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBDC tracker</a> counts 146 countries exploring a central bank digital currency and 41 pilot projects (May 2026), but only three full retail launches: the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria. All three have spent years trying to expand domestic use. All three remain marginal next to cash, cards and bank apps.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>CBDC</th><th>Launched</th><th>In circulation</th><th>Share of currency</th><th>Wallets</th><th>2026 status</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Sand Dollar (Bahamas)</td><td>October 2020</td><td>$1.7M (Dec 2023)</td><td>Under 1%</td><td>118,955 personal wallets</td><td>Bank-distribution rules in preparation</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAM-DEX (Jamaica)</td><td>2021, public rollout 2022</td><td>About J$320M (end-2025)</td><td>About 0.1%</td><td>Hundreds of thousands registered</td><td>Two wallet providers live, two more expected</td></tr>
<tr><td>eNaira (Nigeria)</td><td>October 2021</td><td>N18.35B (Sep 2024)</td><td>About 0.4%</td><td>About 13M opened (2023)</td><td>Repositioned as back-end rail under PSV 2028</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="note">Sources: AFI, The Block, Central Bank of The Bahamas, Jamaica Observer, Nairametrics, Condia, WeeTracker. Nigerian share calculated from CBN figures for eNaira and notes and coins outside banks; figures are the latest each source reports.</p>

<p>For a sense of how small these numbers are: the Bahamas has more than 100,000 registered wallets, roughly <a href="https://afi-global.org/newsroom/blogs/central-bank-digital-currency-lessons-from-the-bahamas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a quarter of the population</a>, but the total value held in them was under 1% of currency in circulation. Jamaica's roughly J$320 million of JAM-DEX compares with more than J$320 billion of notes and coins, according to a <a href="https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/04/02/digital-dollar-jamaica-built-wont-use/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jamaica Observer analysis</a> from April 2026. These are not failed technologies. They are working systems that people mostly ignore.</p>

<h2>Lesson one: a CBDC needs a job that existing rails do not do</h2>

<p>The most candid statement on this came from Nigeria's own central bank. When it unveiled its Payments System Vision 2028 in June 2026, the CBN conceded that the eNaira <a href="https://weetracker.com/2026/06/09/nigeria-enaira-cbn-reposition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offered little that existing platforms did not already provide</a> more conveniently, and cited limited stakeholder buy-in during design. Nigeria already had instant bank transfers, a dense agent network and fast-growing fintech wallets. The eNaira processed about N22 billion in transactions over nearly five years, against close to N1 quadrillion of electronic payments in 2024 alone. Its original target was 300 million transactions by 2026.</p>

<p>Jamaica's bankers made the same argument from the other side. The Jamaica Bankers Association said the business case to prioritise JAM-DEX remains challenging when set against debit cards, bank transfers and existing wallets, especially while banks are busy with ISO 20022 migration, ATM reliability and RTGS upgrades, as <a href="https://www.caribbean360.com/byles-leaves-boj-still-frustrated-by-slow-jam-dex-adoption" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Caribbean360 reported</a>. In the Bahamas, Governor John Rolle noted that much Sand Dollar activity was wallet providers settling with each other, not people buying things.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A central bank can issue digital money. It cannot issue a reason to use it.</blockquote>

<p>The implication for countries still piloting is uncomfortable. Where instant payment systems already work well, a retail CBDC competes with something good and free. That is why the comparison in our piece on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-upi/">e-rupee versus UPI</a> matters so much for India.</p>

<h2>Lesson two: distribution belongs to banks, and banks have little incentive</h2>

<p>Every launched CBDC has relied on intermediaries to put wallets in people's hands and terminals in shops. Every one has struggled to get those intermediaries to care. Jamaica's departing governor Richard Byles, whose term was due to end in August 2026, called the slow take-up his greatest regret and pinned the bottleneck on unconverted point-of-sale machines. The Bank of Jamaica offered to pay half the cost of each terminal upgrade and gave merchants grants, yet only two wallet providers were live by mid-2026.</p>

<p>The Bahamas reached the same conclusion and moved to compulsion. In July 2024, Rolle said the central bank was <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/303094/bahamas-plans-regulations-for-banks-to-distribute-sand-dollar-cbdc-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">preparing regulations that would require commercial banks</a> to give customers Sand Dollar access, after acknowledging adoption remained limited. Its near-term priority was integration with the Bahamas Automated Clearing House so wallets could be topped up from deposit accounts. The central bank's own updates show that when proprietary wallets were integrated with bank accounts, top-ups through the ACH rose.</p>

<p>The pattern is consistent. Banks earn fees and float on deposits and cards. A CBDC wallet earns them nothing and can pull deposits out. Unless regulators mandate distribution or pay for it, the incentives point the wrong way.</p>

<h2>Lesson three: incentives buy sign-ups, not habits</h2>

<p>All three central banks tried paying people to join. Jamaica gave J$2,500 to the first 100,000 people who opened a wallet. The Bahamas disbursed $119,054 in Sand Dollar promotions and rebates between January and November 2023. Nigeria pushed USSD access in 2022 to reach feature-phone users. Sign-ups rose each time. Use did not follow.</p>

<p>The IMF's assessment of the eNaira found that about <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/imf-nigeria-slow-cbdc-adoption/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">98.5% of wallets went unused in any given week</a>, and that total transactions since launch were fewer than the number of wallets. Its suggestions were telling: route government aid through the eNaira, push merchant acceptance, and offer attractive exchange rates for remittances so that diaspora money stopped flowing through unofficial channels. In other words, give it a job.</p>

<p>Jamaica's recent numbers show what a small push can do from a low base. JAM-DEX transaction value rose 550% and volume 267% in 2025 compared with 2024, and peer-to-peer transfers grew about 30% a quarter in the first half of 2025. But the stock in circulation still sits at around a tenth of one percent of cash.</p>

<h2>Worked example: how much money actually sits in these wallets</h2>

<p>Dividing circulation by wallets gives a blunt measure of whether people are using CBDC as money or just holding an app.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Bahamas:</b> $1.7 million in circulation at end-2023 across 118,955 personal wallets is roughly <b>$14 per wallet</b>. For comparison, a Tier One wallet can hold up to $500 and a Tier Two wallet up to $8,000. The average user holds less than 3% of the basic limit.</li>
<li><b>Nigeria:</b> N18.35 billion at end-September 2024 across about 13 million wallets is roughly <b>N1,400 per wallet</b>, less than the price of a restaurant lunch in Lagos. Against N4,292.72 billion of notes and coins, eNaira was about 0.43% of physical currency, according to <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2025/01/14/enaira-value-declined-to-n18-32-billion-in-september-2024-cbn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBN figures reported by Nairametrics</a>.</li>
<li><b>Jamaica:</b> J$320 million against J$320 billion of currency is 0.1%. Even if every registered wallet were active, the average balance would be small.</li>
</ul>

<p>These balances say people treat CBDC wallets as a pass-through at best, much as many people treat a prepaid card. That is not necessarily a failure if the goal is payments rather than store of value. But no launched CBDC has yet shown high payment volume either.</p>

<h2>Lesson four: cash scarcity is not adoption</h2>

<p>Nigeria's 2023 naira redesign was an unplanned stress test. Before it, more than 85% of naira notes, about N2.73 trillion of N3.23 trillion, sat outside bank vaults. When the old notes were withdrawn, notes in circulation fell to around N1 trillion, and roughly 90% of informal-economy transactions depend on cash. <a href="https://thecondia.com/e-naira-transactions-surges-cash-shortage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">eNaira transaction value jumped</a> from about N8 billion at end-November 2022 to around N22 billion. But most Nigerians turned to bank transfers and POS agents instead, and once the Supreme Court ruled old notes would remain legal tender until December 2023, cash came back.</p>

<p>The lesson is that people under pressure pick the digital option they already know. A CBDC launched into a crisis inherits the crisis, not the loyalty.</p>

<h2>What this means for India and the pilot countries</h2>

<p>India's e-rupee is still a pilot, with about Rs 1,016 crore in circulation by March 2025 according to the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/business/e-rupee-in-circulation-grows-to-rs-1k-cr-rbi-exploring-cross-border-cbdc-pilots-3562394" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RBI annual report</a>, while UPI handles around 802 million payments a day as of September 2026. The launched CBDCs suggest that a retail digital rupee will not win by competing with UPI on everyday payments. It has a better chance where it offers something UPI cannot: <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/">programmable payments</a> for subsidies and purpose-bound transfers, <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/">offline payments</a> in low-connectivity areas, and cross-border settlement.</p>

<p>Nigeria has now reached the same conclusion. Under PSV 2028, the CBN plans to stop competing with bank apps and mobile money and use the eNaira as back-end infrastructure for government-to-person payments and cross-border settlement linked to AfCFTA goals. That is a sensible retreat, and it echoes the broader shift we describe in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoins-vs-cbdc-vs-tokenised-deposits/">stablecoins vs CBDCs vs tokenised deposits</a>: wholesale and settlement uses are where central bank money on new rails is gaining ground.</p>

<p>Our view: the three launches are not proof that CBDCs are useless. They are proof that a retail CBDC is a distribution and product problem first and a technology problem a distant second. Countries that start from a specific use case, mandate or pay for distribution, and integrate with existing rails rather than competing with them will do better than the first movers did. For the global picture, see our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-tracker-2026/">CBDC tracker</a> and our explainer on the <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-rupee-explained/">digital rupee</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>By end-2026:</b> whether Jamaica adds the two further JAM-DEX wallet providers the Bank of Jamaica expects, and what the new governor does with the programme after Byles's departure in August 2026.</li>
<li><b>2026-27:</b> publication of the Bahamas regulations requiring banks to distribute Sand Dollar, the first real test of mandated distribution.</li>
<li><b>2026-2028:</b> Nigeria's PSV 2028 rollout, including whether welfare transfers are actually routed through the eNaira.</li>
<li><b>May 2027:</b> the RBI's next annual report, with updated e-rupee circulation and pilot data.</li>
<li><b>Ongoing:</b> Atlantic Council tracker updates, which will show whether any of the 41 pilot projects moves to a full launch, and whether it learns from the first three.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/lessons-from-launched-cbdcs.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>NCMC One Nation One Card vs London Contactless: City Transit Payments</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/smart-cities-and-municipal-payments/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/smart-cities-and-municipal-payments/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>India&#x27;s NCMC has 164 million cards but patchy gates. How it compares with London contactless, Singapore and Hong Kong, and what Smart Cities left unfinished.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/smart-cities-and-municipal-payments.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">At a Bengaluru metro station in March 2023, RBL Bank and the metro corporation announced that the city's roughly six lakh daily riders would move from a closed-loop metro card to a RuPay National Common Mobility Card. Three years on, the card in a commuter's wallet can technically pay for a bus in Surat, a metro in Pune and a toll on the expressway between them. Whether it actually does depends on gates, readers and operator contracts, and that gap is the real story of transit payments in Indian cities.</p>

<p>Urban transit is the densest, most frequent payment most city residents make. It is also where governments have the most direct control over the payment experience, because they own or regulate the gates. This piece compares India's chosen model, a bank-issued card with an offline wallet, against the paths taken by London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Seoul, and looks at what the now-closed Smart Cities Mission delivered for municipal payments.</p>

<h2>The model India chose</h2>

<p>The NCMC was launched on 4 March 2019 when the Prime Minister opened the first phase of the Ahmedabad metro, according to <a href="https://www.nfcw.com/?p=61887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFCW's report at the time</a>. The design has three parts: a RuPay debit, credit or prepaid card with an offline wallet stored on the chip; an indigenous automatic fare collection system called SWEEKAR; and a standard fare gate called SWAGAT. NPCI sets the card and terminal standards, and C-DAC set the fare collection standards, according to an <a href="https://www.npci.org.in/PDF/npci/knowledge-center/partner-whitepapers/NCMC-Tap-and-Transit-Pan-India-with-RuPay.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPCI white paper from September 2023</a>.</p>

<p>The offline wallet is the clever part. A gate does not need to call a bank server to approve a ride. It debits a small balance on the card itself, which keeps tap times low and lets the system work where connectivity is weak. The trade-off is that the user has to top up that wallet, which brings back some of the friction of a closed-loop card. The same card can also be used online like a normal debit card, so the bank account, not the transit operator, is the customer relationship.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>164M+</b><span>NCMC cards issued by 48 issuers (Sept 2023)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Mar 2019</b><span>NCMC launched in Ahmedabad</span></div><div class="stat"><b>6 lakh</b><span>daily Bengaluru metro riders moved to NCMC</span></div></div>

<p>By September 2023, 48 issuers had put more than 164 million NCMC-capable cards into circulation, according to the NPCI paper. Acceptance had spread to metros in Kochi, Noida, Nagpur, Delhi (all lines compliant by June 2023), Chennai and Bengaluru (April 2023), Mumbai lines 2A and 7, Kanpur and Pune, along with buses in Ahmedabad, Surat, Goa's Kadamba service and Mumbai's BEST. More than 25 banks were authorised to issue the cards, per <a href="https://cleartax.in/s/national-common-mobility-card-ncmc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ClearTax's guide</a>.</p>

<h2>Cards issued is the wrong number</h2>

<p>The 164 million figure flatters the system. Many of those cards are standard RuPay debit cards that banks made NCMC-compliant on reissue, and a large share of holders have never loaded the transit wallet. The more meaningful metrics, which are rarely published, would be the share of transit taps made with NCMC on each network and the number of cities where one card works on every mode.</p>

<p>Bus networks are the hard case. The NPCI paper notes that Bengaluru and Chennai buses carried about 35 lakh and 36 lakh passengers a day respectively in 2018-19, far more than their metros. Retrofitting thousands of buses with validators that handle an offline wallet, sync with a back office and survive Indian roads is a procurement problem, not a payments problem. Metros, with fixed gates and central control rooms, were always going to move first.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">A transit card is only national when the cheapest bus in the smallest city accepts it, and that is a hardware budget, not a policy announcement.</blockquote>

<h2>How other cities did it</h2>

<p>The global history of transit payments is a progression from proprietary stored-value cards to bank cards and phones. Each city's starting point shaped where it ended up.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>City</th><th>First contactless system</th><th>Current model</th><th>What it shows</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Seoul</td><td>Upass closed-loop card, 1995</td><td>T-money (from 2004), compatible across about 60 cities</td><td>A dominant closed-loop card can become a de facto national standard</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hong Kong</td><td>Octopus stored-value card, 1997</td><td>Octopus remains central; transactions in about 0.3 seconds</td><td>Speed and ubiquity can keep a closed loop competitive for decades</td></tr>
<tr><td>Singapore</td><td>Magnetic fare cards 1990, EZ-Link contactless 2002</td><td>SimplyGo account-based ticketing from 2016</td><td>Shifting value from the card to a back-office account</td></tr>
<tr><td>London</td><td>Oyster, then bank-card contactless on buses (2012) and Tube (2014)</td><td>Open loop dominant for pay-as-you-go</td><td>Bank cards can overtake a transit card within a few years</td></tr>
<tr><td>India</td><td>Closed-loop city cards, Kochi and Ahmedabad NCMC pilots in 2017</td><td>NCMC bank-issued card with offline wallet, from 2019</td><td>A hybrid: bank-issued, but still a stored balance on the chip</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The Asian dates come from the NPCI white paper's international review. London's numbers are the most instructive. Transport for London introduced bank-card contactless on buses in 2012 and the Tube and rail in 2014. By April 2018, contactless accounted for half of pay-as-you-go journeys on the Tube and rail and 45% on buses and trams, up from about a quarter two years earlier, with about 17 million journeys a week and roughly one in eight made with a phone, according to <a href="https://www.digitaltransactions.net/contactless-payments-continue-to-gain-share-on-londons-transit-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Transactions</a>. By September 2021 the contactless share of Tube pay-as-you-go trips had reached 70% and about two-thirds on buses, per <a href="https://www.mobility-payments.com/?p=6054" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mobility Payments</a>.</p>

<p>London's key move was making the bank card behave like a transit card: daily and weekly fare caps applied automatically, with no top-up and no wallet. Users did not have to learn anything. India's NCMC asks users to understand a separate offline balance on a card they already carry, which is a small but real barrier.</p>

<h2>Worked example: why tap speed matters</h2>

<p>Consider a busy metro gate. Hong Kong's Octopus processes a tap in about 0.3 seconds. At that speed, the card transaction itself could in theory support about 200 taps a minute; the real limit is how fast people walk through the gate. If a card instead needed an online authorisation taking, say, 1.5 seconds, the same gate would cap at about 40 taps a minute from the payment side alone.</p>

<p>Now apply that to a Bengaluru-scale network with about six lakh daily riders, most of whom pass through a gate twice. That is roughly 12 lakh gate transactions a day, concentrated in two peak windows. A one-second difference per tap, multiplied across a peak hour, decides whether a station needs more gates or longer queues. This is why both NCMC's offline wallet and London's deferred-authorisation model exist: neither waits for a bank's real-time approval at the gate. The difference is that London settles the fare against the bank account afterwards, while NCMC deducts from a pre-loaded balance.</p>

<h2>What the Smart Cities Mission delivered for payments</h2>

<p>The Smart Cities Mission, launched in June 2015 for 100 cities, formally ended its funding phase on 31 March 2025. By 11 July 2025, 7,636 of 8,063 projects, worth Rs 1,53,977 crore, were complete, and the Centre said the mission was financially closed with no budget for the current year, according to <a href="https://www.etvbharat.com/en/!bharat/no-more-budgetary-allocation-made-for-indias-smart-city-mission-centre-enn25072104871" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Rajya Sabha reply reported by ETV Bharat</a>. Cities had claimed Rs 47,459 crore of the Rs 48,000 crore central allocation.</p>

<p>Every one of the 100 cities now has an Integrated Command and Control Centre, and the mission added over 84,000 CCTV cameras, more than 1,740 km of smart roads and intelligent transport management systems, according to a <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/amp/story/governance/after-a-decade-of-its-launch-only-18-out-of-100-cities-have-completed-smart-cities-mission-projects-but-there-are-some-positive-takeaways" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Down To Earth review</a>, which also found that only 18 of the 100 cities had completed every project by March 2025. What the published progress data barely mentions is payments. Municipal fee collection, parking and property tax were folded into city apps in many places, but there is no national data on how much municipal revenue moved to digital channels as a result. The command centres watch traffic; they mostly do not run the cash.</p>

<p>That is a missed opportunity. Transit, parking and municipal fees are the payments a city government controls most directly, and a common card or a common UPI collection layer for all of them would have been cheap compared with road works. Our explainers on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/prepaid-payment-instruments-rbi/">prepaid payment instruments</a> cover the rails a city could use, and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-public-infrastructure-india-stack/">India's digital public infrastructure</a> shows why the national layers are already in place.</p>

<h2>Open loop, UPI or a digital rupee?</h2>

<p>India now has three plausible ways to pay a fare. NCMC is built for the gate. UPI dominates small payments everywhere else, but a QR scan at a turnstile is slower than a tap, and UPI's offline variants are still small. The e-rupee has been piloted with offline features, which we discuss in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/">offline CBDC payments</a>. Our view is that the gate will stay card-based for years because tap speed beats everything, while the top-up and the account behind the card are where UPI and possibly the e-rupee will compete. For a broader comparison of faster payment systems, see <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/instant-payments-around-the-world/">instant payments around the world</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>July to August 2026:</b> Parliament's monsoon session. Written replies are the likeliest place for updated NCMC issuance and acceptance data by city, which has not been published comprehensively since 2023.</li>
<li><b>Through 2026-27:</b> the remaining Smart Cities projects in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, several of which were due by December 2025 or April 2026, and whether cities fund command centres once central money ends.</li>
<li><b>1 February 2027:</b> the Union Budget for 2027-28, which will show whether the Centre funds a successor urban programme and whether transit payment hardware for city buses gets dedicated money.</li>
<li><b>31 March 2027:</b> the end of the financial year by which several metro projects under construction are expected to open new lines, each a chance to launch with full NCMC and open-loop acceptance from day one rather than retrofitting.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">NCMC issuance figures cited here date from September 2023, the latest comprehensive public count we could verify. Check NPCI and metro operators for current acceptance.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/smart-cities-and-municipal-payments.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Forex Travel Card vs Multi-Currency Account vs Crypto Card (2026)</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Crypto Cards</category><description>Forex travel cards, multi-currency accounts and crypto cards compared on FX markup, GST, TCS, ATM costs, DCC traps and what protects your money in 2026.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A textile buyer from Surat lands in Milan with three pieces of plastic in her wallet: a bank-issued forex card loaded with euros, a credit card with a 3.5% foreign currency markup, and a crypto card a cousin in Dubai talked her into. Each will happily pay for her espresso. The difference between them on a ten-day trip can be the price of a return train to Florence, and most of it is hidden inside exchange rates rather than printed as a fee.</p>

<p>This piece compares the three ways people now carry money abroad: prepaid forex travel cards, multi-currency accounts with a linked debit card, and crypto cards that spend stablecoins or other tokens through Visa or Mastercard. We look at where the cost sits, what taxes apply for Indian residents, what protects the balance if the provider fails, and when each one actually makes sense.</p>

<h2>Three products that look the same at the till</h2>

<p>At a card terminal in Lisbon or Bangkok, all three products behave identically. The merchant sees a Visa or Mastercard transaction in local currency and gets paid in local currency. What differs is what happens behind the scenes before and after that tap.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Forex travel card.</b> A prepaid card you load in advance, usually from an Indian bank or authorised dealer, in one or several currencies. The exchange rate is locked at load time. You pay the provider's card rate, which includes a spread over the interbank rate, plus GST on the conversion.</li>
<li><b>Multi-currency account.</b> An e-money or bank account that holds balances in several currencies, with a debit card attached. You convert when you choose, often at or near the mid-market rate with a disclosed fee, or let the card convert automatically at the moment you spend.</li>
<li><b>Crypto card.</b> A debit or prepaid card where the funding source is a crypto balance, very often a dollar stablecoin. At the moment you pay, the issuer sells or debits the token and the network settles the merchant in local currency. We explained the plumbing in our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-explained/">how crypto cards work</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>The crypto card is the newest and the fastest growing. Card spending funded by crypto reached roughly $1.5 billion a month by late 2025, an annualised pace above $18 billion, according to Artemis data reported by <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/crypto-cards-rival-stablecoin-transfers-as-spending-tops-usd18-billion-artemis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Defiant</a>. Analysts cited by <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-card-monthly-volume-surge-230-one-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cointelegraph</a> in May 2026 put Visa's share of that activity at around 90%. That is real money, but it is still tiny next to traditional travel spending.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>4.13%</b><span>effective cost of a 3.5% card markup after 18% GST</span></div><div class="stat"><b>7.6%</b><span>average dynamic currency conversion fee in one study</span></div><div class="stat"><b>$18B+</b><span>annualised crypto card spend, late 2025 (Artemis)</span></div></div>

<h2>Where the cost actually hides</h2>

<p>Travel money has four cost layers, and providers compete by making one of them look free while charging on another.</p>

<h3>The exchange rate spread</h3>

<p>Every product converts at some rate. The fairest benchmark is the mid-market rate, the midpoint between buy and sell prices on the interbank market. Indian credit cards typically add a markup of between 1% and 3.5% on foreign currency spending, with several large issuers sitting at the top of that range, according to a tracker of issuer schedules at <a href="https://www.cardtrail.in/glossary/glossary-forex-markup-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CardTrail</a>. Forex cards bury their margin in the card rate quoted at load. Multi-currency accounts tend to show the fee separately, which is why they often look cheaper even when the gap is small. If the idea of a "zero fee" transfer sounds too good, our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mid-market-rate-zero-fee-transfers/">the mid-market rate</a> shows how to check.</p>

<h3>Taxes on the conversion</h3>

<p>In India, GST is charged at 18% on the markup when you spend in foreign currency on a card. So a 3.5% markup becomes about 4.13%. When you buy foreign currency or load a forex card, GST applies instead to a deemed "value of supply" under Rule 32(2)(b) of the CGST Rules: 1% of the amount up to Rs 1 lakh (minimum Rs 250), then Rs 1,000 plus 0.5% of the amount between Rs 1 lakh and Rs 10 lakh, as laid out by <a href="https://cleartax.in/s/gst-on-foriegn-exchange" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ClearTax</a>. GST at 18% is then charged on that value. On a Rs 2 lakh load, that works out to Rs 270 of GST, which is much smaller than the markup GST on a credit card.</p>

<h3>Tax collected at source</h3>

<p>Loading a forex card is a remittance under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, so TCS can apply. Since April 2025 the general threshold is Rs 10 lakh per financial year. Budget 2026-27 cut TCS on overseas tour packages to a flat 2% and on LRS education and medical remittances to 2%, as <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/tax/budget-2026-how-the-tcs-cut-changes-the-math-for-foreign-travel-in-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Outlook Money</a> reported in February 2026. For most other purposes, including personal travel loads, TCS kicks in above the Rs 10 lakh threshold at a higher rate. TCS is not an extra tax; it is credited against your final liability. But it ties up cash, and a family planning a long trip should factor it in and check the current rate with their bank or tax adviser.</p>

<h3>Fees around the edges</h3>

<p>ATM withdrawals, inactivity charges, reload fees, cross-currency fees when you spend a currency you did not load, and charges for cashing out the leftover balance on return. These are small individually and decisive in aggregate. A forex card loaded only with euros, used in Switzerland, may convert twice.</p>

<h2>The DCC trap that beats every card</h2>

<p>The single most expensive mistake is not the card. It is the terminal asking whether you want to pay "in rupees" or "in pounds" instead of the local currency. This is dynamic currency conversion, and the merchant's acquirer sets the rate. One study cited by <a href="https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/travel/foreign-travel-pay-local-or-home-currency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN Travel</a> found an average DCC charge of 7.6%, more than double the usual cost of letting your own card convert. The rule is simple: always choose the local currency. It applies to forex cards, multi-currency accounts and crypto cards alike.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">The card you carry matters less than one tap on a terminal screen: always pay in the local currency.</blockquote>

<p>Europe forces transparency here. The EU's cross-border payments regulation requires card providers to show currency conversion charges as a percentage markup over the ECB's euro reference rate, and to send an electronic message after a foreign-currency card payment or withdrawal, rules that took full effect for cards in April 2021, as <a href="https://addleshawgoddard.com/globalassets/insights/financial-regulation/cross-border-payments-cards-on-tour" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Addleshaw Goddard</a> summarised. India has no equivalent requirement for a post-transaction markup alert.</p>

<h2>Side-by-side comparison</h2>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Feature</th><th>Forex travel card</th><th>Multi-currency account</th><th>Crypto card</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Rate set</td><td>At load, locked</td><td>At conversion or at spend</td><td>At spend, from token to local currency</td></tr>
<tr><td>Typical visible fee</td><td>Spread inside card rate</td><td>Disclosed conversion fee</td><td>Conversion fee or spread, sometimes network fees on top-up</td></tr>
<tr><td>Indian GST</td><td>Slab on value of supply</td><td>Depends on provider location</td><td>Depends on provider location</td></tr>
<tr><td>LRS and TCS</td><td>Yes, load is a remittance</td><td>Yes when funded from India</td><td>Yes when funded from India, plus VDA tax rules</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rate risk</td><td>None after load</td><td>Low if pre-converted</td><td>Low for stablecoins, high for volatile tokens</td></tr>
<tr><td>Balance protection</td><td>Issuing bank</td><td>Safeguarding, not deposit insurance, for e-money</td><td>Varies widely; custodial risk</td></tr>
<tr><td>Chargebacks</td><td>Network rules apply</td><td>Network rules apply</td><td>Network rules apply on the card leg only</td></tr>
<tr><td>Best fit</td><td>Fixed-budget trips</td><td>Frequent travellers, multiple currencies</td><td>People already earning or holding stablecoins</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>A worked example: Rs 2 lakh in Europe</h2>

<p>Take the Surat buyer's ten days in Italy, spending the equivalent of Rs 2,00,000 in euros. For round numbers, assume a mid-market rate of Rs 100 per euro, so the trip is EUR 2,000. These are illustrations with stated assumptions, not quotes from any provider.</p>

<ol>
<li><b>Credit card at a 3.5% markup.</b> Markup: Rs 7,000. GST at 18% on that: Rs 1,260. Total cost over mid-market: <b>Rs 8,260</b>, or 4.13%.</li>
<li><b>Forex card with a 1% load spread.</b> Spread: Rs 2,000. GST value of supply: Rs 1,000 plus 0.5% of the Rs 1 lakh above the first lakh, so Rs 1,500; 18% of that is Rs 270. Total: <b>Rs 2,270</b>, or about 1.1%. Unspent euros brought home cost another spread when converted back.</li>
<li><b>Crypto card funded with dollar stablecoins.</b> Assume a 1% spread buying the stablecoin and a 1% conversion fee at the card. Total: roughly <b>Rs 4,000</b>, before any network fees to move tokens, and before tax. For an Indian resident, transfers of virtual digital assets attract 1% TDS and gains are taxed at 30%, under rules set out by the <a href="https://incometaxindia.gov.in/w/taxation-of-virtual-digital-asset-vda-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Income Tax Department</a>. The TDS is creditable, but it adds friction.</li>
</ol>

<p>The forex card wins this particular trip, by a wide margin over the credit card. The crypto card is not the cheapest route for someone starting with rupees, because the money has to be converted twice. It looks very different for a freelancer in Bali who is already paid in USDC: for her, the stablecoin is the starting point and the card is the cheapest way out. That is the case we explored in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-cards-travel-freelancers/">crypto cards for travellers and freelancers</a>.</p>

<h2>What protects your balance</h2>

<p>Cost is only half the comparison. The other half is what happens if the company holding your money fails.</p>

<p>A forex card issued by an Indian bank is a liability of that bank. A multi-currency account from a payments firm is usually e-money, and that is a different animal. In the UK, the <a href="https://fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/proposed-new-rules-better-protect-customers-payments-firms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FCA</a> states plainly that funds held by payments and e-money firms are not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Instead the firm must safeguard customer funds in segregated accounts. That system has failed before: customers of payment firms that collapsed between 2018 and 2023 lost an average of 65% of their money, according to FCA figures reported by <a href="https://fintech.global/2025/08/08/fca-introduces-new-rules-to-safeguard-client-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FinTech Global</a>. Tougher rules, with monthly reporting and daily checks that enough money is set aside, took effect in May 2026.</p>

<p>Crypto cards sit further out on the risk curve. Most hold your tokens in a custodial account run by the card programme or an exchange. Some newer cards spend directly from a self-custody wallet, which removes the custodian but puts recovery entirely on you. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/self-custody-vs-custodial-wallets/">self-custody versus custodial wallets</a> covers that trade-off. Card network chargeback rights still apply to the card transaction itself, but they do not protect the token balance behind it.</p>

<h2>Which one fits which traveller</h2>

<p>There is no universally cheapest card, only the cheapest for a given starting currency and trip pattern.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>A family on a fixed-budget holiday from India.</b> A forex card loaded in the destination currency gives rate certainty and modest costs. Bring back as little as possible.</li>
<li><b>A frequent business traveller crossing several currencies.</b> A multi-currency account avoids locking money into one currency in advance, and transparent fees make it easy to audit. Check where the provider is regulated and whether balances are e-money.</li>
<li><b>A remote worker paid in stablecoins.</b> A crypto card avoids converting to a home currency first. Tax treatment on each spend can be a disposal in several countries, so keep records. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/crypto-tax-by-country-2026/">crypto tax by country</a> sets out the rules.</li>
<li><b>Everyone.</b> Keep a backup card on a different network, refuse DCC every time, and avoid withdrawing small amounts of cash repeatedly.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This is general information, not financial or tax advice. Fees and tax rules change; confirm current terms with your provider and a qualified adviser before you travel.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Visa's stablecoin card push.</b> Visa and Stripe-owned Bridge announced stablecoin-linked cards across more than 100 countries, starting with markets in Latin America, with Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East slated for expansion by the end of 2026. Wider availability will bring crypto cards to many more travellers.</li>
<li><b>India's Budget 2027-28, February 2027.</b> TCS rules on LRS have been rewritten repeatedly since 2023. Watch for further moves on the Rs 10 lakh threshold.</li>
<li><b>UK safeguarding reform.</b> The FCA's interim rules took effect in May 2026, with a statutory trust floated by the regulator as the longer-term end state. If adopted, it would change what e-money customers can expect in an insolvency.</li>
<li><b>India's crypto framework.</b> Any move from tax-only treatment to a licensing regime would affect which crypto cards Indian residents can lawfully use. We track it in India crypto regulation 2026.</li>
</ul>

<p>The plastic all looks the same. The money behind it does not. For someone starting in rupees, the boring forex card still beats the shiny alternatives on cost; for someone already holding digital dollars, the crypto card is the shortest path to a cafe bill. Know which of those you are before you pack.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/multi-currency-travel-cards-vs-crypto-cards.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Is Money Sent to India Taxable? NRI Tax Rules for 2026 Explained</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Diaspora</category><description>Is money sent to India taxable in 2026? How remittances, NRE and NRO interest, DTAA rates, TCS on LRS and the new Forms 145 and 146 work, with real numbers.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A retired schoolteacher in Madurai receives $1,500 a month from her daughter, an engineer in Houston. Every April the same worry surfaces at the bank counter: will the tax department treat the money as her income? In most cases it will not. The transfer itself is rarely what gets taxed. What gets taxed is what the money earns once it lands, and what happens when it tries to leave again. Since 1 April 2026 that whole question sits under a new law, the Income-tax Act, 2025, with new form numbers and a few new rates.</p>

<p>This guide walks through the rules as they stand in mid-2026 for non-resident Indians and the families who receive their money. It is general information, not advice. Tax depends on your residency, your host country and the nature of the money, so check your position with a qualified adviser.</p>

<h2>The transfer is usually not the income</h2>

<p>India taxes non-residents on income that arises or is received in India. Salary earned in Houston, Muscat or Melbourne and taxed (or not) there does not become Indian income because it crosses the border into an Indian account. When an NRI moves savings from an overseas bank into their own NRE account, nothing taxable has happened in India. The same logic applies when the money is sent to a family member: Indian law exempts gifts received from relatives, a category defined in the Act that covers parents, children, siblings, spouses and their close family. Gifts from people outside that circle are a different matter and can be taxed in the hands of the recipient once they cross the threshold set in the law.</p>

<p>The practical point is that a monthly transfer from a daughter to her mother is not something the mother reports as earnings. What the mother does with it afterwards, for example putting it in a fixed deposit, produces interest that is her own taxable income at her own slab rate. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/what-remittances-pay-for/">what remittances pay for</a> shows how much of this money is spent rather than saved, which is part of why the tax footprint is usually small.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">India rarely taxes the money you send. It taxes what that money earns once it stays.</blockquote>

<h2>Where tax bites: income earned in India</h2>

<p>Once money is in India and earning, the account it sits in decides the tax. Interest on NRE accounts and FCNR(B) deposits is exempt for a person resident outside India under FEMA, and the Income Tax Department's FAQs, <a href="https://southasianherald.com/tax-dept-clears-nri-doubts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as reported in July 2026</a>, confirm the new Act keeps that link to FEMA status. Interest on NRO accounts is taxable, and the bank deducts tax at source before paying it. The table below shows the main withholding rates an NRI faces in 2026, drawn from <a href="https://nriinformation.com/banking/tds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published rate summaries</a> and bank guidance.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Income in India</th><th>Withholding on an NRI (before treaty)</th><th>Notes</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>NRE and FCNR(B) interest</td><td>Nil</td><td>Exempt while non-resident</td></tr>
<tr><td>NRO savings and FD interest</td><td>30% + surcharge + 4% cess</td><td>About 31.2% for interest up to Rs 50 lakh</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rent from Indian property</td><td>30% + surcharge + cess</td><td>Deducted by the tenant</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dividends from Indian companies</td><td>20% + surcharge + cess</td><td>Treaty rate often lower</td></tr>
<tr><td>Listed shares, long-term gains</td><td>12.5% above Rs 1.25 lakh</td><td>Short-term gains at 20%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Property sale, long-term</td><td>12.5% + surcharge + cess</td><td>No indexation for NRIs</td></tr>
<tr><td>Debt fund units bought from April 2023</td><td>30%</td><td>Always treated as short-term</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>The surcharge rises with income, so <a href="https://www.kotak.bank.in/en/stories-in-focus/nri/tds-on-nri-fds-key-facts-you-should-know.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">effective NRO withholding</a> climbs to 34.32 percent between Rs 50 lakh and Rs 1 crore of interest and to 39 percent between Rs 2 crore and Rs 5 crore. TDS is not always the final tax. If your total Indian income is low, a return can recover some of it. For the account mechanics behind these rates, see our comparison of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/nre-vs-nro-vs-fcnr-accounts/">NRE, NRO and FCNR accounts</a>.</p>

<h2>Treaties, and why paperwork is worth money</h2>

<p>India has double taxation avoidance agreements with most countries where its diaspora lives. A treaty can cap the rate India withholds on interest, dividends and some gains, and it lets your host country give credit for Indian tax so the same rupee is not taxed twice. To get the treaty rate at source, a bank typically wants a PAN, a tax residency certificate from your host country for the relevant year, Form 10F filed electronically (renumbered Form 41 under the new rules) and sometimes a short declaration that you have no permanent establishment in India. Without a PAN, a higher floor applies and the treaty route is usually closed.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>31.2%</b><span>Default TDS on NRO interest up to Rs 50 lakh</span></div><div class="stat"><b>12.5%</b><span>India-UAE treaty rate on interest</span></div><div class="stat"><b>Rs 5 lakh</b><span>Yearly level above which a CA's Form 146 is needed</span></div></div>

<h3>Worked example: an NRO deposit held from Dubai</h3>

<p>Consider a sales manager in Dubai who sold a flat in Nagpur and kept the proceeds in NRO fixed deposits that pay Rs 3 lakh of interest in tax year 2026-27.</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Without treaty paperwork:</b> the bank withholds 30 percent plus 4 percent cess, or 31.2 percent, which is Rs 93,600.</li>
<li><b>With a UAE tax residency certificate and Form 10F on file:</b> the India-UAE treaty caps tax on interest at 12.5 percent, or Rs 37,500, a figure <a href="https://getbelong.com/blog/nre-accounts-tax-free.md" target="_blank" rel="noopener">illustrated in UAE-focused guidance</a>.</li>
<li><b>Difference:</b> Rs 56,100 a year stays in the account instead of waiting for a refund.</li>
</ul>

<p>Two caveats. The certificate has to be valid for the year in question and in the bank's hands before interest is credited, otherwise the default rate applies and the excess must be reclaimed through an Indian return. And the treaty rate is specific to each country: a resident of the US, UK or Canada faces a different cap, and also pays tax at home on worldwide interest with credit for Indian tax. The UAE example works so neatly because there is no personal income tax on the other side.</p>

<h2>Money going the other way: TCS on outward remittances</h2>

<p>Families do not only receive money. Parents in India often send it out, to pay a child's tuition, cover medical treatment abroad or help with a deposit on a home. Those payments go under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and the bank collects tax at source (TCS) on them. TCS is an advance payment that the sender can claim against their own Indian tax, not an extra levy, but it ties up cash. The 2026 Budget cut several rates from 1 April 2026, according to the <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_in/media/podcasts/budget-insights/2026/02/episode-9-budget-2026-on-tds-tcs-lrs-and-transition-to-the-new-income-tax-act" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EY Budget briefing</a> and <a href="https://bb.bankbazaar.com/tax/tax-collected-at-source.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published rate tables</a>:</p>

<ul>
<li><b>Education (not loan-funded) and medical treatment:</b> 2 percent above Rs 10 lakh a year, down from 5 percent.</li>
<li><b>Education funded by a loan from a financial institution:</b> nil.</li>
<li><b>Overseas tour packages:</b> a flat 2 percent regardless of amount, replacing the old 5 and 20 percent slabs.</li>
<li><b>Everything else, including gifts and investments abroad:</b> 20 percent on amounts above Rs 10 lakh a year.</li>
</ul>

<p>Run the numbers on a father in Lucknow sending Rs 15 lakh in one tax year. If it is his own money for a daughter's tuition in Toronto, TCS is 2 percent of the Rs 5 lakh above the threshold, or Rs 10,000. If the same Rs 15 lakh is a gift toward her apartment, TCS is 20 percent of Rs 5 lakh, or Rs 1 lakh. He gets the money back as a credit when he files, but the gap shows why the stated purpose on the bank form matters. Our guide to <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/pay-international-student-fees/">paying international student fees</a> goes into the corridor side of this.</p>

<h2>Forms 145 and 146 replace 15CA and 15CB</h2>

<p>When an NRI moves capital out of an NRO account, or anyone in India pays a non-resident, the bank needs a tax declaration. Under the Income-tax Rules, 2026, <a href="https://www.bdo.in/en-gb/news/2026/new-tax-declaration-forms-introduced-for-nri-remittances" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forms 15CA and 15CB have been replaced</a> by Form 145, the sender's declaration, and Form 146, a chartered accountant's certificate on the nature of the payment, the treaty position and the tax rate. Form 146 now carries a UDIN so banks can verify it, treaty claims must quote the tax residency certificate number, and capital gains remittances need acquisition and sale details.</p>

<p>The thresholds broadly follow the old system. Under the previous rules, <a href="https://cleartax.in/s/filing-e-form-15ca-and-15cb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remittances up to Rs 5 lakh in a year</a> needed only a short declaration, while larger taxable ones needed the CA certificate, and payments not chargeable to tax at all needed neither. The renamed forms keep that shape. Separately, the NRO account can receive gifts from residents in India up to the LRS limit of $250,000 a year, which is an indirect cap on how much a resident parent can route to a non-resident child through that account.</p>

<h2>When an NRI has to file in India</h2>

<p>Many NRIs assume that if TDS was deducted, they are done. Often they are, but not always. A return is needed if your taxable Indian income is above the basic exemption, which is Rs 4 lakh under the new regime and Rs 2.5 lakh under the old one. It is also triggered, according to <a href="https://getbelong.com/blog/nre-accounts-tax-free.md" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NRI filing guidance</a>, if tax deducted or collected exceeds Rs 25,000, or if deposits in savings accounts exceed Rs 50 lakh in a year. Filing is also the only way to claim back excess TDS or credit for TCS. The rebate that wipes out tax for low-income residents is not available to non-residents, so an NRI with modest Indian income can still owe tax.</p>

<p>The 2026 return season is a transition year. Returns filed by 31 July 2026 cover income earned in 2025-26 and are still governed by the 1961 Act. Income from 1 April 2026 onward is under the new Act and its single "tax year" concept, and familiar forms have new numbers: Form 16 becomes Form 130 and Form 26AS becomes Form 168, as <a href="https://nriinformation.com/taxation/india-budget-2026-nri-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summarised in Budget commentary</a>.</p>

<h2>Common misreadings</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>"My parents must pay tax on what I send."</b> Not when it is a gift from a defined relative. They pay tax on the interest it earns.</li>
<li><b>"NRE interest is tax-free, so I can park Indian rent there."</b> No. Rent is Indian income and goes through NRO, with tax deducted.</li>
<li><b>"TDS is my final tax."</b> It is a deduction on account. Your actual liability might be lower, or, for high earners, higher.</li>
<li><b>"TCS is a fee."</b> It is a credit against the sender's own Indian tax, recoverable on filing.</li>
<li><b>"Residency for tax and for bank accounts is the same."</b> They use different tests. Read our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/fema-rules-for-nris-2026/">FEMA rules for NRIs</a> guide alongside this one.</li>
</ul>

<p>For families covering bills rather than saving, the tax story is simpler still: paying a parent's electricity or school fees from abroad is spending, not income. See our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/bill-payments-for-nri/">bill payments for NRIs</a>.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>31 July 2026:</b> deadline for returns on 2025-26 income, the last cycle filed under the 1961 Act.</li>
<li><b>16 August to 31 December 2026:</b> the FAST-DS 2026 window for disclosing foreign assets. One route covers undisclosed assets or income up to Rs 1 crore at 30 percent tax plus an equal additional amount; another covers assets up to Rs 5 crore acquired while non-resident or from taxed income, for a flat Rs 1 lakh fee. It is aimed mainly at residents, including returned NRIs who missed foreign asset reporting.</li>
<li><b>1 October 2026:</b> resident buyers of property from NRIs can deduct TDS using their PAN instead of obtaining a TAN, which should make sales by NRIs less of a paperwork hurdle. The 12.5 percent rate does not change.</li>
<li><b>Tax year 2026-27 returns, due in 2027:</b> the first filed under the Income-tax Act, 2025, with new form numbers throughout.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">This article explains published rules for general information only. It is not tax, legal or financial advice. Treaty rates, thresholds and form requirements depend on your circumstances, so confirm them with a qualified tax adviser before acting.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/nri-tax-on-money-sent-to-india.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>CBDC Privacy Debate: Who Sees Your Digital Euro, e-Rupee or e-CNY?</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/cbdc-privacy-debate/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Digital Currency</category><description>The CBDC privacy debate explained: tiered privacy, the ECB offline promise, India&#x27;s managed anonymity, China&#x27;s model, the US rejection and what citizens fear.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-privacy-debate.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A pharmacist in Leipzig who still keeps a cash drawer will tell you why: some customers buy things they would rather nobody recorded. That instinct, more than any economics paper, is what CBDC designers are up against. Every central bank planning a digital currency for the public now spends as much time explaining what it will not see as what it will do.</p>

<h2>What people are actually afraid of</h2>
<p>The fear is not abstract. When the ECB ran its public consultation on a digital euro in 2021, more than a third of respondents ranked payment privacy as the most important feature, ahead of everything else, a result summarised in a <a href="https://arxiv.org/html/2601.18644v1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026 critical review of the digital euro by Cannataci and co-authors</a>. The same paper cites the ECB's 2024 SPACE study, in which 42% of respondents named privacy as a top advantage of cash.</p>
<p>The worries come in three layers. The first is surveillance: a state that can see every payment can profile political donations, medical purchases or religious giving. The second is control: money that can be blocked, capped or made to expire, the subject of our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/programmable-e-rupee-use-cases/">programmable e-rupee</a>. The third is plain data security: a central database of balances is a target. A design can answer one layer well and fail another.</p>
<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>1 in 3+</b><span>ranked privacy first in the ECB's 2021 consultation</span></div><div class="stat"><b>42%</b><span>named privacy a top advantage of cash (SPACE 2024)</span></div><div class="stat"><b>44%</b><span>of central banks want offline CBDC to be more private</span></div></div>

<h2>The tiered privacy model, explained</h2>
<p>Most central banks have converged on some version of tiered privacy. The logic mirrors anti-money-laundering rules for cash: small and local can be private, large and remote must be traceable.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Tier 1, offline and small.</b> Device-to-device payments with low limits, where the record stays on the two devices. The closest thing to cash.</li>
<li><b>Tier 2, online and everyday.</b> Payments pass through a bank or payment service provider that knows the customer, while the central bank sees only pseudonymised data, if anything.</li>
<li><b>Tier 3, large or flagged.</b> Fully identified and traceable, with access for law enforcement under existing legal procedures.</li>
</ul>
<p>India's version is called managed anonymity. The RBI's <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&amp;ID=1218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022 concept note</a> summarised the principle as anonymity for small values and traceability for high values. China's e-CNY has used a similar idea; a 2021 <a href="https://chinadailyhk.com/article/238110" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily report</a> noted that e-CNY wallets could be opened without a linked bank account for a limited number of transactions. And the BIS Project Polaris research found 44% of central banks believe offline CBDC should offer more privacy than online, according to <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/bis-offline-cbdc-polaris/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ledger Insights</a>.</p>
<p>The model sounds tidy. The arguments are about the boundaries: how small is small, who decides, and how easily those thresholds can be moved later.</p>

<h2>The ECB's commitments, and the critics' reply</h2>
<p>Europe has made the most explicit promises. For offline payments, the ECB's <a href="https://ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/progress/html/ecb.deprp202406.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first progress report on the digital euro</a> says only the two parties would know personal transaction details, with nothing shared with payment providers or the Eurosystem. For online payments, the ECB says the Eurosystem would not be able to directly identify users, with data pseudonymised and encrypted, while supervised intermediaries carry out the same anti-money-laundering checks they do today. In September 2025, executive board member Piero Cipollone went as far as saying the central bank would know nothing about the two sides of a payment, as <a href="https://reclaimthenet.org/eu-digital-euro-roadmap-holding-limits-privacy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reclaim The Net reported</a>.</p>
<p>Critics are not convinced. The Cannataci paper argues that every online payment would be visible to the payment service provider, that the ECB would keep a central record of account balances, and that settlement data would be "at best pseudonymized". Pseudonymous data, in their view, is a short step from identified data once it is combined with other records. Civil society groups, including the German Informatics Society, see the decline of cash and the arrival of a digital euro as a threat to informational self-determination, and a group of 70 economists and academics wrote to the European Parliament asking for a privacy-preserving, offline-capable design.</p>
<p>Both sides have a point. The ECB's technical commitments are real and go beyond what card networks offer today. But commitments in a design document are weaker than limits in law, and online privacy depends on banks and regulators as much as on the ECB. More on the project itself in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/digital-euro-explained/">the digital euro explained</a>.</p>

<h2>Where the law stands in July 2026</h2>
<p>The legislative fight has moved privacy from an engineering topic to a political one. The Council of the EU agreed its negotiating position in December 2025, backing online and offline use with a high degree of privacy offline, according to a <a href="https://www.lewissilkin.com/insights/2025/12/29/council-of-the-eu-agrees-position-on-the-digital-euro-102lz5q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lewis Silkin note</a>. On 23 June 2026, the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee approved its position by 43 votes to 14 with one abstention, as <a href="https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/07/288574-european-parliament-committee-clears-path-for-digital-euro-by-2029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowdfund Insider reported</a>. The committee text writes in privacy by design and by default, verification methods that do not reveal unnecessary personal details, and no ECB access to identifying information. Offline payments use secure local storage and carry no fees. A plenary vote is due in July, after which negotiations with the Council can begin.</p>
<p>Holding limits are part of the privacy story too, though they are usually discussed as a stability tool. A per-person cap limits how much of a household's financial life can sit in the instrument at all. EU finance ministers agreed a process for setting the cap in September 2025 without agreeing the amount, and ECB staff analysis has used an illustrative ceiling of €3,000.</p>

<h2>Worked example: one month, three payments</h2>
<p>Consider a payroll administrator in Porto, after a hypothetical launch, holding a digital euro wallet under an assumed €3,000 cap. Over one month she makes three payments. The table shows who would see what under the ECB's described design.</p>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Payment</th><th>Mode</th><th>She and the other party</th><th>Her payment provider</th><th>Eurosystem</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>€25 at a cafe</td><td>Offline, phone to phone</td><td>Amount and counterparty</td><td>Nothing until she reloads; then only the funding amount</td><td>Nothing</td></tr>
<tr><td>€140 online purchase</td><td>Online</td><td>Full details</td><td>Full details, as with a card today</td><td>Pseudonymised settlement data</td></tr>
<tr><td>€300 top-up from her bank</td><td>Online funding</td><td>Not applicable</td><td>Amount and identity</td><td>Pseudonymised balance change</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Two things stand out. The €25 cafe payment is genuinely more private than a card payment is today. The €140 online purchase is about as private as a card payment, no worse and no better. So the honest summary is that a digital euro would add a cash-like option for small in-person payments while leaving online privacy roughly where it is. Whether that is enough depends on how much of daily life is offline and small, which is shrinking.</p>
<p class="note">This is an illustration of a design that has not been finalised; the cap, the offline limits and the data rules will be fixed in legislation and ECB rules.</p>

<h2>The American "no" and the Chinese "yes"</h2>
<p>At the two extremes sit the United States and China. Washington has turned against a retail CBDC on privacy grounds: in January 2025 a White House executive order barred federal agencies from working to establish a CBDC, and Congress has since debated legislation to prohibit one. US policy has instead backed privately issued, regulated stablecoins, which brings its own privacy questions since issuers and exchanges hold customer data. We cover that framework in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-rules-genius-act-mica/">stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act and MiCA</a>.</p>
<p>China went the other way. The e-CNY has been in testing since 2019 and, from 1 January 2026, was reclassified as interest-bearing "digital deposit money" held as a liability of commercial banks, according to a <a href="https://capitalfm.africa/china-digital-yuan-deposit-money-cbdc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Daily report republished by Capital FM</a>. That moves e-CNY balances closer to ordinary bank deposits, with the same customer identification and reporting that implies. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/china-e-cny-digital-yuan/">our e-CNY explainer</a>.</p>
<p>India sits in between. Its pilot follows managed anonymity, and the e-rupee is token-based and does not pay interest, but the RBI has not yet published detailed rules on what data each party sees. The <a href="https://finshots.in/archive/will-rbi-make-money-dance-to-its-tunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finshots analysis of programmability</a> also points out that the Bank of England has said it will not pursue government or central bank-initiated programmable functions, a line India has not drawn.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">A privacy promise in a design document is a starting position. A privacy limit in statute is a guarantee.</blockquote>

<h2>What good privacy design would look like</h2>
<p>From the designs on the table, a credible privacy package for any retail CBDC would include five things.</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Limits in law, not policy.</b> Data access, retention periods and the conditions for law-enforcement access should sit in legislation, so that a later government cannot quietly widen them.</li>
<li><b>A real offline tier.</b> Device-to-device payments with no central record, capped at levels that keep fraud manageable. See <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/offline-cbdc-payments/">how offline CBDC works</a>.</li>
<li><b>Separation of duties.</b> The central bank settles but does not hold identity; intermediaries hold identity but not the full settlement picture.</li>
<li><b>No programmability by default.</b> Money a person buys with their own deposit should carry no rules.</li>
<li><b>Independent audit.</b> Regular public audits by data protection authorities, with published results.</li>
</ol>
<p>The ECB's design meets most of these on paper. India and China would need more published detail to be assessed on the same terms.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>July 2026:</b> the European Parliament plenary vote on its digital euro position, which opens trilogue negotiations with the Council.</li>
<li><b>End of 2026:</b> the target for final EU agreement on the digital euro regulation, including the privacy articles and the process for holding limits.</li>
<li><b>Second half of 2027:</b> the planned 12-month pilot, the first chance to see whether the offline privacy promise holds up with real users.</li>
<li><b>May 2027:</b> the RBI's next annual report, which could say more about data handling in the e-rupee pilot as it expands into government schemes.</li>
</ul>
<p>For a side-by-side of design choices, read <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/e-rupee-vs-digital-euro-vs-e-cny/">e-rupee vs digital euro vs e-CNY</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/cbdc-privacy-debate.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>Financial Inclusion Data 2026: Jan Dhan, Findex 2025 and the Unbanked</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>GovTech</category><description>Jan Dhan has 57 crore accounts and Findex 2025 says 79% of adults are banked. The harder number is usage: a quarter of Jan Dhan accounts sit inoperative.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">A woman in a village outside Gaya opened a Jan Dhan account in 2015 because a bank mitra came to her lane with a form and a fingerprint scanner. Ten years later the account still exists, and a government transfer lands in it now and then. Whether she counts as financially included depends entirely on which statistic you read, and in 2026 the statistics have started to disagree in interesting ways.</p>

<p>India's financial inclusion story is usually told with one number: accounts opened. That number is extraordinary. But the World Bank's Global Findex 2025, the Jan Dhan dashboard, parliamentary replies on inoperative accounts and the RBI's own inclusion index all point to the same conclusion. Access is close to solved. Use is not. This piece puts the latest figures side by side and argues that the next decade of inclusion policy should be judged on activity, not enrolment.</p>

<h2>The global baseline: 79% banked, 1.3 billion not</h2>

<p>The Global Findex 2025, based on surveys of more than 145,000 adults in 141 economies during 2024, found that 79% of adults worldwide had an account at a bank, similar institution or mobile money provider, up from 74% in 2021 and 51% in 2011, according to the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Bank's Findex portal</a>. In low- and middle-income economies the figure was 75%.</p>

<p>That still leaves about 1.3 billion adults without an account. A <a href="https://www.biia.com/financial-inclusion-at-record-high-but-1-3-billion-still-unbanked-world-bank-global-findex-2025-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summary of the report</a> describes who they are: 55% are women, 52% live in the poorest 40% of households and 62% have primary education or less. Around 650 million of them live in just a handful of large economies, including India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt and Mexico. Globally, 77% of women and 81% of men had an account in 2024, a four-point gap.</p>

<div class="stat-row"><div class="stat"><b>79%</b><span>adults worldwide with an account, 2024</span></div><div class="stat"><b>61%</b><span>adults in developing economies using digital payments</span></div><div class="stat"><b>40%</b><span>developing-economy adults saving in an account</span></div></div>

<p>The more striking findings are about use. In developing economies, 61% of adults made or received a digital payment in 2024, which is 82% of account owners, up 27 percentage points since 2014, according to a <a href="https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-economic-empowerment-institute/world-bank-global-findex-2025-insight.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summary of the Findex data by the Visa Economic Empowerment Institute</a>. Forty percent saved in a financial account, up 16 points in three years, the fastest rise in more than a decade. Mobile money reached 40% of adults in Sub-Saharan Africa, up from 27% in 2021, and 37% in Latin America and the Caribbean, up from 22%. Findex also found that 1 in 4 adults in developing economies had faced a natural disaster in the previous three years, which is why account use in a crisis matters as much as account ownership.</p>

<h2>India: ownership solved, usage still catching up</h2>

<p>For India, Findex 2025 shows account ownership around 90% for both men and women, which effectively closes the gender gap in ownership, and South Asia overall near 80%. That parity is a genuine policy achievement. Most countries with India's income level still have a gender gap.</p>

<p>Inactivity is where India stands out. The World Bank's 2021 data had shown 35% of Indian account holders with an inactive account, meaning no deposit or withdrawal in the previous year, about seven times the 5% average for other developing economies, as <a href="https://visionias.in/current-affairs/upsc-daily-news-summary/article/2025-07-17/business-standard/economy/35-bank-account-holders-in-india-had-inactive-accounts-in-2021-world-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard reported</a>. In that survey, 42% of women account holders had inactive accounts against 30% of men. The 2024 survey shows a sharp improvement, with roughly 16% of Indian account holders inactive, about 20% of women and 12% of men, according to an analysis by <a href="https://dataforindia.com/access-to-banking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Data For India</a>. The low- and middle-income average was about 4%. So the gap is closing, but India is still an outlier, and the gender gap has moved from ownership to use.</p>

<h2>Jan Dhan by the numbers</h2>

<p>Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, launched on 28 August 2014, is the main reason for India's ownership numbers. The finance ministry's <a href="https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/aug/doc2025827621301.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">eleventh-anniversary note</a> put accounts at 56.16 crore in August 2025, up from 14.72 crore in 2015, with deposits of Rs 2,67,755 crore against Rs 15,670 crore in March 2015. Women held 56% of accounts and 67% were in rural or semi-urban areas. Banks had issued 38.68 crore RuPay debit cards to account holders, and 327 government schemes were linked through DBT.</p>

<p>By December 2025, the total had reached 57.07 crore, and the Minister of State for Finance told the Lok Sabha that 15.09 crore of them, about 26%, were inoperative, according to <a href="https://www.outlookmoney.com/news/mos-finance-says-15-crore-pm-jan-dhan-accounts-are-inoperative" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PTI's report of the reply</a>. Data on public sector banks published by <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/jan-dhan-inoperative-accounts-psbs-financial-inclusion-rupay-gap-125101500986_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Standard</a> showed the inoperative share in those banks rising from 21% to 26% between September 2024 and September 2025.</p>

<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Indicator</th><th>2015</th><th>August 2025</th><th>December 2025</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>Jan Dhan accounts</td><td>14.72 crore</td><td>56.16 crore</td><td>57.07 crore</td></tr>
<tr><td>Deposits</td><td>Rs 15,670 crore (Mar 2015)</td><td>Rs 2,67,755 crore</td><td>n/a</td></tr>
<tr><td>Women's share of accounts</td><td>n/a</td><td>56%</td><td>n/a</td></tr>
<tr><td>Rural and semi-urban share</td><td>n/a</td><td>67%</td><td>n/a</td></tr>
<tr><td>RuPay cards issued</td><td>n/a</td><td>38.68 crore</td><td>n/a</td></tr>
<tr><td>Inoperative accounts</td><td>n/a</td><td>n/a</td><td>15.09 crore (about 26%)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<p>An account is classed as inoperative after two years without a customer-initiated transaction. A government credit does not count, which matters: an account that only ever receives DBT and is emptied in cash by a business correspondent may still look dormant to the bank's systems.</p>

<h2>Worked example: what the averages hide</h2>

<p>Start with the August 2025 figures. Rs 2,67,755 crore spread over 56.16 crore accounts gives an average balance of about Rs 4,768. Deposits grew about 17 times between March 2015 and August 2025, while accounts grew about 3.8 times, so the average account holds far more money than it used to.</p>

<p>Now apply December's inoperative share. If 15.09 crore of 57.07 crore accounts are inoperative, about 41.98 crore are active. Inoperative accounts tend to hold very little, so the operative ones probably hold somewhat more than the headline average. That is an inference, not a published figure, but it points the right way: Jan Dhan is turning into two populations. One uses the account as a real savings and payment tool. The other holds an account that exists mainly on paper.</p>

<p>The policy implication is concrete. A DBT payment into an inoperative account still arrives, but if the holder has to re-do KYC at a branch before withdrawing, the transfer's value is reduced by the travel, time and lost wages involved. The government's July to September 2025 saturation campaign re-verified KYC for about 4.73 lakh inactive Jan Dhan accounts in its first month. Measured against 15 crore inoperative accounts, that pace would take decades.</p>

<blockquote class="pull">India answered the question of who has an account. The question for the next decade is who uses one on an ordinary Tuesday.</blockquote>

<h2>The RBI's index says usage is rising</h2>

<p>The RBI's Financial Inclusion Index, which weights access at 35%, usage at 45% and quality at 20%, stood at 67 for March 2025 against 64.2 a year earlier, with the improvement driven mainly by usage and quality, according to the <a href="https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/business/2025/07/22/dcm37-biz-rbi-financial-inclusion.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">central bank's July 2025 release</a>. That is consistent with Findex's falling inactivity number and with the rise of UPI as the default way to pay small amounts. Our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/upi-explained-global-expansion/">UPI</a> shows how far digital payments have spread, and the account is what UPI sits on.</p>

<p>The two sets of numbers can coexist. National usage is rising fast because the people who already use accounts are using them much more. Inoperative Jan Dhan accounts are concentrated among those who never started. Both things are true, and the second is the harder problem.</p>

<p>There is also a measurement problem worth naming. Jan Dhan's dashboard counts accounts and deposits, Findex counts people and their behaviour in a survey year, and the RBI index blends dozens of indicators into one score. None of them tells a district officer which villages have accounts that receive money but never spend it digitally. Publishing inoperative-account data by district, alongside DBT credit volumes, would let states target re-KYC camps and business correspondent placements where they would do the most good, instead of running nationwide saturation drives that mostly reach people who are already active.</p>

<h2>What would actually move usage</h2>

<p>The evidence from other countries suggests three levers. The first is regular inflows: people use accounts that receive money they need, which is why wage and benefit payments matter more than enrolment drives. Our pieces on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/direct-benefit-transfer-india/">direct benefit transfer</a> and <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/government-payroll-and-wage-payments/">government wage payments</a> cover how those inflows are routed.</p>

<p>The second is cash-out access close to home. Mobile money in East Africa grew because agents were everywhere, as our explainer on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/mpesa-mobile-money-africa/">M-Pesa and mobile money</a> describes. India's business correspondent network plays the same role, and its density in a district tends to predict activity better than account counts do.</p>

<p>The third is confidence. Findex found that women in South Asia are at least 19 points more likely than men to say they would need help using an account, according to the same Visa institute summary. That lines up with India's gender gap in inactivity. Our piece on <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/women-and-remittances/">women and remittances</a> looks at how money sent home can change who controls the household account.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>

<ul>
<li><b>Mid-July 2026:</b> the RBI's Financial Inclusion Index for March 2026. A reading above 67 led by the usage sub-index would confirm the trend; a stall would suggest UPI growth is concentrated among existing users.</li>
<li><b>28 August 2026:</b> Jan Dhan's twelfth anniversary, when the finance ministry usually publishes updated account, deposit and RuPay card figures. Watch whether it reports an inoperative share at all.</li>
<li><b>Monsoon session of Parliament, July to August 2026:</b> written replies are the most reliable source for inoperative-account data by bank and state.</li>
<li><b>Next Findex round:</b> the survey has run in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2021 and 2024. The next edition will show whether India's inactivity rate converges towards the developing-economy average.</li>
</ul>

<p class="note">Survey-based Findex figures and administrative Jan Dhan data measure different things and are not directly comparable. Inactivity definitions also differ: Findex uses one year without deposits or withdrawals, while banks classify an account as inoperative after two years without a customer-initiated transaction.</p>
]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/financial-inclusion-jan-dhan-data.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item><item><title>B2B Stablecoin Settlement Case Studies: 6 Documented Uses in 2026</title><link>https://insights.muffinpay.com/b2b-stablecoin-settlement-case-studies/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://insights.muffinpay.com/b2b-stablecoin-settlement-case-studies/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:00:00 +0400</pubDate><dc:creator>MuffinPay Research</dc:creator><category>Business Payments</category><description>Documented cases of companies settling B2B payments in stablecoins: Starlink, Visa, Remote, Deel, LatAm and African importers, and claims that fail checks.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/b2b-stablecoin-settlement-case-studies.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="630"></p><p class="lede">In mid-2025 a story spread across crypto media that traders in Yiwu, the Chinese wholesale city that ships everything from Christmas lights to phone cases, had settled more than $10 billion in stablecoins since 2023. Reporters at Yicai went to the market and asked. The general manager of one trading group told them almost no factories or foreign trade firms around him used stablecoins at all. The $10 billion figure was attributed to a Chainalysis report that Yicai could not find. That gap between the story and the ledger is why this piece only counts cases a company, regulator or network has put on the record.</p>

<h2>Our test for a documented case</h2>
<p>Stablecoin B2B payments are real and growing, but the evidence is unusually noisy. Vendors publish customer logos without volumes, social posts recycle unsourced numbers, and on-chain data cannot tell a supplier payment from a trader moving funds between exchanges. We included a case only if at least one of these applied:</p>
<ul>
<li>the company itself, or its named payments provider, described the flow publicly;</li>
<li>a central bank, regulator or card network disclosed it with figures;</li>
<li>a major news organisation reported it with named, on-record sources.</li>
</ul>
<p>Scale is reported where disclosed. Where it is not, we say so. For context, total stablecoin supply was about $306 billion as of October 2026, and genuine stablecoin payments were estimated at around $390 billion in 2025 by McKinsey and Artemis, a small fraction of global B2B flows but no longer a rounding error. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/stablecoin-payments-for-business/">guide to stablecoin payments for business</a> covers the mechanics.</p>

<h2>Case 1: Starlink's treasury collections in emerging markets</h2>
<p>The best-known corporate case is SpaceX. As Starlink expanded to more than 100 countries, it ran into slow, unreliable and sometimes blocked banking in developing markets, and turned to stablecoin payments platform Bridge to accept local-currency payments and convert them into stablecoins for its global treasury, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/31/stablecoins-are-finding-product-market-fit-in-emerging-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TechCrunch reported in January 2025</a>, drawing on Bridge's account of its customers. Stripe acquired Bridge for more than $1 billion.</p>
<p>What makes this case instructive is the direction of the flow. Starlink was not paying suppliers in stablecoins; it was solving a collection and repatriation problem. Money arrives in dozens of local currencies through local rails, and the stablecoin is the bridge into a dollar treasury that does not depend on a correspondent bank in each country. No volume has been disclosed, so treat it as proof of use rather than proof of scale.</p>

<h2>Case 2: Visa settling with banks in USDC</h2>
<p>Card networks settle daily with issuing and acquiring banks, a pure B2B flow. On 16 December 2025 Visa <a href="https://investor.visa.com/news/news-details/2025/Visa-Launches-Stablecoin-Settlement-in-the-United-States-Marking-a-Breakthrough-for-Stablecoin-Integration/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that Cross River Bank and Lead Bank had begun settling with it in USDC over Solana in the US, with broader availability planned through 2026. Its monthly stablecoin settlement volume had passed a $3.5 billion annualised run rate as of 30 November 2025. Settlement windows run seven days a week rather than five business days.</p>
<p>Compared with Visa's roughly $14 trillion of annual payments volume, $3.5 billion is tiny. The significance is that a systemically important network is willing to accept a stablecoin as final settlement with regulated banks, which is the step most corporate treasurers wait for. We cover the network angle in <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/visa-mastercard-stablecoin-settlement/">our piece on Visa, Mastercard and stablecoin settlement</a>.</p>

<h2>Cases 3 and 4: Remote and Deel pay contractors in dollar tokens</h2>
<p>Business-to-contractor payments sit at the edge of B2B, but they are where documented corporate use is most concrete.</p>
<p><b>Remote.</b> The HR platform lets contractors in more than 60 countries, including Argentina, Mexico, Colombia and Ghana, withdraw earnings in USDC to their own wallet through Stripe, according to <a href="https://stripe.com/customers/remote" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stripe's case study</a>. Remote estimates contractors save more than 1% of the withdrawal amount by avoiding FX conversion and are paid two to three days sooner on average. Funds arrive within minutes.</p>
<p><b>Deel.</b> On 3 June 2026 Stripe <a href="https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/deel-and-stripe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that Deel had launched a stablecoin wallet holding DLUSD, a custom dollar token issued through Bridge, starting in Argentina, with the rest of Latin America to follow and Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa later. Deel says 85% of its contractors in Argentina wanted to be paid in dollars in 2025. The platform serves more than 40,000 businesses and 1.5 million workers.</p>
<p>Both cases point the same way: the employer still pays in fiat, and the conversion to a stablecoin happens at the last mile, at the recipient's choice.</p>

<h2>Cases 5 and 6: importers in Latin America and Africa</h2>
<h3>Brazil and Latin America</h3>
<p>The strongest official evidence of stablecoins in trade payments comes from Brazil's central bank. Governor Gabriel Galipolo said in February 2025 that around 90% of crypto flow in Brazil was linked to stablecoins, and that much of it was used to buy goods from abroad, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazils-galipolo-sees-surge-crypto-191900953.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a>. He flagged concerns about tax visibility and money laundering.</p>
<p>The regulator's response is itself evidence of scale. In 2026 the central bank issued Resolution No. 561, amending its eFX framework so that regulated cross-border payments must run through traditional FX transactions or regulated real accounts held by foreign counterparties, and removing digital assets, including stablecoins, from those permitted channels, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/399713/brazil-central-bank-prohibits-crypto-use-in-regulated-cross-border-payments-under-new-fx-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Block reported on 1 May 2026</a>. The rule does not ban crypto transfers outright. Regulators rarely write rules for flows that do not exist. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/brazil-pix-and-drex/">Brazil Pix and Drex explainer</a> covers the domestic side.</p>
<blockquote class="pull">The clearest evidence that importers use stablecoins is a central bank writing rules to stop them.</blockquote>

<h3>African import-export businesses</h3>
<p>In Africa, documentation comes mostly from the payment firms that serve importers, which disclose aggregate volumes rather than named clients. TechCrunch's January 2025 reporting gave three data points: Conduit, which handles stablecoin payments for import-export businesses in Africa and Latin America, said its annualised payment volume had doubled from $5 billion to $10 billion; Yellow Card, a fiat-to-stablecoin conversion platform, said annual volume doubled from $1.5 billion in 2023 to $3 billion in 2024; and Lagos-based Juicyway said it had processed $1.3 billion in cross-border payments.</p>
<p>The regional context comes from Chainalysis. Sub-Saharan Africa received more than $205 billion in crypto value between July 2024 and June 2025, with stablecoins about 43% of transaction volume and frequent multi-million-dollar stablecoin transfers linking Africa, the Middle East and Asia, as <a href="https://www.mariblock.com/stories/sub-saharan-africa-now-the-third-fastest-growing-crypto-region-chainalysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariblock reported</a>. Those large transfers are consistent with trade settlement, though Chainalysis does not label them as such. Our <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/africa-remittances-cost/">Africa remittances piece</a> covers why dollar access is so expensive in many of these markets.</p>

<h2>Asia, and the claims that did not check out</h2>
<p>Asia is where the gap between narrative and evidence is widest. The Yiwu story is the clearest example. Yicai's July 2025 reporting found that the market sells about CNY800 million ($111.6 million) of goods a day, that merchants mostly use telegraphic transfers, letters of credit and licensed payment platforms, and that converting stablecoins to fiat can trigger anti-money-laundering reviews. Mainland China bans issuing, trading and exchanging cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Some pioneering merchants use them, a blockchain exchange source said, but the $10 billion figure is unsupported.</p>
<p>Two other widely repeated cases also fall short of our test. Bolivia's state energy company YPFB said in March 2025 it would use crypto to pay for fuel imports, but a government spokesperson said at the time it had not yet done so, <a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2025-03-12/bolivia-turns-crypto-energy-imports-amid-dollar-fuel-shortages" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a>. We found no disclosure confirming completed transactions or their size. And on-chain "B2B volume" estimates that do not separate trading from payments should be treated with caution.</p>

<h2>The six cases side by side</h2>
<table class="cmp"><thead><tr><th>Case</th><th>Flow</th><th>Disclosed by</th><th>Scale disclosed</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SpaceX / Starlink</td><td>Local collections into dollar treasury</td><td>Payments provider, via TechCrunch</td><td>None</td></tr>
<tr><td>Visa and US banks</td><td>Network-to-bank settlement in USDC</td><td>Visa</td><td>$3.5B annualised run rate (Nov 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Remote</td><td>Contractor withdrawals in USDC</td><td>Stripe case study</td><td>60+ countries; savings over 1%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Deel</td><td>Contractor wallet in DLUSD</td><td>Stripe</td><td>Launch market Argentina; 1.5M workers on platform</td></tr>
<tr><td>Brazilian importers</td><td>Stablecoins used to buy from abroad</td><td>Central bank governor; Resolution 561</td><td>~90% of crypto flow tied to stablecoins</td></tr>
<tr><td>African import-export firms</td><td>Supplier payments via stablecoin platforms</td><td>Conduit, Yellow Card, Juicyway</td><td>$10B, $3B and $1.3B respectively (see text)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

<h2>Worked example: what "over 1%" means in practice</h2>
<p>Remote's estimate gives a usable benchmark. Take a software contractor in Bogota billing $4,000 a month. If a USDC withdrawal saves just over 1% compared with converting dollars to pesos through the default route, that is at least $40 a month, or $480 a year, before any value from receiving funds two to three days earlier.</p>
<p>Scale that to a company. A Mexican distributor paying a US supplier $250,000 a month would, at the same 1% gap, be looking at $2,500 a month, or $30,000 a year. That is an assumption, not a measured result: business FX pricing is usually tighter than retail, on-ramp and off-ramp fees vary, and the supplier must be able to accept stablecoins or have a partner convert them. The point of the exercise is to show why finance teams bother. Companies should take advice from a qualified adviser on tax and FX rules before changing how they settle.</p>

<h2>What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Visa's US rollout through 2026:</b> whether more issuers and acquirers sign up, and whether Visa discloses an updated run rate.</li>
<li><b>Deel's expansion:</b> the planned move from Argentina into the rest of Latin America, then Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa.</li>
<li><b>Brazil's enforcement of Resolution 561:</b> whether importer flows move back into the formal FX market or shift to offshore structures.</li>
<li><b>GENIUS Act effective date:</b> the US framework takes effect by January 2027 at the latest, which will make it easier for US suppliers to accept and hold permitted stablecoins.</li>
</ul>
<p>The documented record shows a clear pattern. Stablecoins win where dollar access is hard, where banking hours and correspondent chains slow things down, or at the last mile where the recipient wants dollars. They have not yet replaced the wire for routine trade between companies with good banks. For more on that broader shift, see our coverage of <a href="https://insights.muffinpay.com/cross-border-b2b-payments-2026/">cross-border B2B payments in 2026</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded><media:content url="https://insights.muffinpay.com/assets/og/b2b-stablecoin-settlement-case-studies.jpg" medium="image" width="1200" height="630" type="image/jpeg"/></item></channel></rss>